9 year old study predicting exactly that for "maybe as early as in 10 years"
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how_long_can_oceans_continue_to_absorb_earths_excess_heat
> *“But the other thing I want to point out,”* England added, “*is that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are at such high concentrations compared to what they were 100 years ago that you don’t need to bring heat back up from the ocean to the surface to get future warming — you just need to slow down the heat uptake by the ocean, and greenhouse gases will do the rest.”*
Dang!! I wish I could remember the clip I just watched from Paul Beckwith- but basically the science has established that the magnitude of global temperature rise is so huge (like 25•C above previous years) that the effects of ElNino and LaNina are now considered of no consequence. We have “baked into” the system a feedback loop for warming now- no matter EN or LN. It’s only up from here- looks like. I suggest everyone here who uses the word “hope” - but also feels sad and depressed about all this….. sad and depressing REALITY…. Maybe begin your acceptance journey by considering that hope is what makes us depressed in the face of this undeniable truth. It worked for me. In college my roommate and I bought a bumper sticker for our shared beater car… “I feel so much better now that I gave up hope.” At first we loved is bc it was dark and angsty….. but then we realized the zen of it. There’s a rough patch over the hump for a minute, but once you accept the reality and do your Samayara Jamasara Meditations every night and watch enough Glorious, Uplifting NDE’s (Anthony Chene is a good place to start) you’ll feel better. At peace even. It’s happening whether we roll with it or not. It’s out of our control. We can’t stop it. But take heart, we are ALL in this TOGETHER. That is our only certainty. And that has to be enough comfort for all of us. And I’m glad for it. Thank to all of you for being here.
Forgot to add- Jen Bendell- angel human- has a support concept called Deep Adaptation. He started with Extinction Rebellion and eventually separated when he could no longer deny that it’s over. There is absolutely no way out. So he started an emotional spiritual support group- and it’s still going. He wrote a paper Deep Adaptation and overnight a lot of people figured out- what’s what. And joined in.
> But take heart, we are ALL in this TOGETHER
I'm not sure that people that can't maintain their humanity in crisis will see it that way when they invade your home for loot.
lol- that’s okay. I won’t be there. I’ll be flying the coop early in the chaos. I love myself too much to prolong the suffering when the outcome is inevitable. They can have my canned food and whatever else. Eventually we’re all gonna end up in the same place. IMHO.
I don’t believe in “death” , it’s morbid. Maybe a “flying spirits club…flock? …school? …….team?…….Oh!!! I KNOW…. A kaleidoscope!!! Like what butterflies are called when they swarm! So, yes, seeking like-minded humans who feel pretty confident of what’s happening now and where it’s going to end, soon……. And would like to parle what comes “next”? Is that problematic? We are on a collapse page, right? It’s kinda built into the word. Collapse= a lot of “death”=flying spirits! It helps ME, anyway. Sorry to offend anyone else. I’m just a reality girl.
No need to apologise, I'm not offended. Concerned would be a better word but you make a good point this is basically a sub for those with a morbid fascination for the apocalypse.
Good idea. You better hurry, to beat the rush. Eventually word will get out about all this, and the stores will be empty. I already got “my kit” together quite awhile ago.
Hi, GuillotineComeBacks. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/-/l1gka0m/) was removed from /r/collapse for:
>
> You can discuss it in the abstract. You can't discuss methods; that's how you end up with your account removed by Reddit and the sub quarantined.
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One of Hansen's studies claims that (under BAU scenario) considering the time it takes for CO2 emitted today to mature in the atmosphere along with under estimation of tipping points will result in 8-10 C by 2100. He focuses also on earth's albedo increase due to melting ice at the poles.
I wonder if the billionaires will be able to build their robot armies in time to serve them tea and scones in their climate bunkers. Because sure a shit any plebs they take in with them will turn on them in the first 5 minutes.
Jonathan, there are no words that can describe the gift you just gave me. ….just spent an hour with Andrew and my coffee (there may have been some tears of gratitude involved). Thank you, thank you, thank you. I REALLY needed this. And thank you to God/universe for sending Birds like Andrew that sing and whistle.
As a dissapointed idealist who teeters between hope and acceptance, this makes so much sense. For me, I find solace in the fact that I tried. So many of us tried. There is beauty in that.
From the article:
>But scientists say that when the cycle eventually swings back to its positive, warm phase, which history suggests **could occur within a decade**, the winds will wind down, the pumping will let up, and buried heat will rise back into the atmosphere.
> For decades, the earth’s oceans have soaked up more than nine-tenths of the atmosphere’s excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions. By stowing that extra energy in their depths, oceans have spared the planet from feeling the full effects of humanity’s carbon overindulgence.
Overindulgence, what a fitting theme that is.
I learned that the world used to be so warm that the poles had jungles. It's estimated that CO2 levels were 4 times higher than today for that to happen. I can't wait!
I read that actually the co2 levels were EQUAL to today, but theres a large lag so it will take awhile for the hear to catch up. Like 420 ppm had jungles at the poles
If you add in CH4 and NOx you get over 500ppm CO2 equivalent and I read recently how large albedo could add to the CO2 equivalent.
Problem is that you do not get to 400ppm plus and stabilize - something about feedback loops and all the methane trapped in hydrates under the sea or in the melting permafrost
Nope. 40 million years ago, the continents were pretty much in the same spot as now. The Arctic had crocodilians and palm trees, and Antarctica had poplar forests. This is the paleontological record that raises so many questions about the temperature differentials possible between equator and poles. The GISS model disregards this observed temperature equality.
If that's right, honestly the biggest question to me is how the heck a jungle could possibly grow in a place with such little solar radiance — though I suppose if we extend the meaning of "jungle" to something more akin to a boreal forest than the subtropical environment we usually associate that term with, I could see it.
The plants living there likely had all kinds of adaptations to handle the sun light issues.
Maybe the palm trees curled up during the arctic night, like these plants on Kilimanjaro:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobelia_deckenii
People didnt listen because he kept making predictions of imminent extinction.
I'm guessing they'll still be deriding him when the next date (2026) passes, but meanwhile missing the message of pollution protecting us.
The thing about that is that McPherson isn’t “making predictions”, which is always what he’s derided for. He’s simply reporting, VERBATIM, what the most recent PEER REVIEWED, scientific studies have recently published. He’s just kind enough to (for FREE) wade through the 500 pages of technical jargon, and scale it to size to fit into ‘our’ itsy bitsy non-scientific brains. And for that I am grateful. For those of you who have a scientific background and time to read these reports on your own, great. But most don’t. Then he inevitably falls victim to “kill the messenger “. I especially appreciate that he never EVER (that I have seen) alters ONE word of the published report. Only reads verbatim…… in his weird, stilted, autistic way. God bless him for staying strong under the abuse he’s received. And for no $🙁. But I agree with your sentiment. People will always use the dates being off by a few years to call bullshit on the entire, obvious truth of what’s coming SOON. Regardless of the “date”.
When civilian aviation was stopped for 72 hours following 9/11, the average temperature went up an average of nearly 2 degrees C (don't recall the exact #) in the U.S. No contrails and exhaust particles to reflect incoming sun's energy. A clue to be sure.
The surface temp is rising and it's entering a fast evaporation phase between the top few meters of water and the atmosphere. The majority of the ocean water mass is only very slightly minorly increased in temperature and thus not actually distributing heat energy within itself.
The evaporation rate is important as that water releases the heat energy faster the heat energy still remains on Earth and distributes across the globes surface and atmosphere.
So the ocean is not retaining as much heat energy, instead it's pushing it elsewhere.
Yes in simple terms, it's more generic energy rather than strictly heat. So a faster evaporation rate means fast storm growths, not necessarily that the storms are hotter. Kinda like how a pot of boiling water won't increase in temperature unless you input a higher heating rate than its evaporation rate.
So the planets surface water has reached a relative temperature where the evaporation rate has increased while water temperatures have reached equalibrium as the evaporating cooling rate matches the energy input rate.
Tldr; water temps stay the same but more water will be thrown around faster.
The oceans still have an enourmous capacity to absorb heat. We need an enormous pump that pushes the hot water on the surface down towards the deep oceans. It won't help in the long-term tho.
Everyone is using the word heat in the physics context and it's making me realize that a lot of the people in the comments are probably in the science field
Hi, godlords. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/-/l211sya/) was removed from /r/collapse for:
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No man I am not mad or anything. Your reaction is understandable.
Accept it in your own way and dont throw away your future plans - do what you always wanted to do. And cherish the time with your friends and your time in relative luxury.
I love the phrase: "Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will". As a (probably) westerner, you have a bigger chance to survive this, make peace with the future we have lost and prepare as best as you can, be there for your friends and family. These are just my two cents. I was (am) a extreme doomer and there is nothing we can do really, but we still have a sphere of influence that we can.. influence.
Sorry for the word salad. I would recommend building mutual aid network with your friends and family members, join a church, build community, try to garden if able (if not there is guerilla gardening and squatting). I personally dont do this all, but Im trying to garden and stockpile food and be a good friend, partner, family member.
My problem is that i am already poor as shit. I am breaking my body just to keep my head above water and i am in pain all the time. What even is the fucking point if by the time i manage to dig myself out of near poverty my reward is the world breaking apart around me. I have been going from one abusive hell to another all my life, i am only 23 but i already feel done with life.
real.. there's something strange about knowing these are the final "good days" and still being forced to grind them out to be able to afford the bare necessities to survive while knowing there's no guarantee you'll even reap the rewards of all the hard work..
Relatable, 25 and also done with life. Do you live in a big city? And do you live alone, or with your parents (why yes/no)? Im also eastern european, or more like central european. What is your job?
Sorry for these intrusive questions. I will try to give my two cents if you want, if not then you dont need to respond.
Well mine got locked for no source, despite having a source, so I’m glad yours got approved now. World is burning now baby, doesn’t matter where we party.
Yeah, not one for petty squabbles over who gets "credit" for sharing content other people made.
The world is coming to an end, seemingly faster than ever, and this is one of the few communities for those of us who actually pay attention to this impending doom.
Sorry, I removed it for the wrong reason - meant to do the title one. We get a lot of these SST posts, so try not to allow low effort titles and submission statements, and only when there is notable events (like the one mentioned here and in yours)
But as you've all mentioned, the important thing is we're able to have these discussions, especially now in a post that is appropriately titled and contains a in-depth submission statement
A few clerical errors are fine, as long mods are not being officious or arbitratry in their decisions.
Thankfully, this is one of the few subs that hasn't succumbed to that.
I know we caused this, and I’m aware of the theory that all intelligent beings do something like this to their planet before figuring out better ways.
Anyway, I just wonder what the odds are, to be alive now during this and to be able to document so much of it. It’s fascinating, and terrifying.
To be fair, this is fairly unprecedented while humans have been on the planet. We’ve gone through a few warming and cooling cycles in the five hundred thousand years but nothing reflecting the amount of greenhouse gasses currently in the atmosphere which the effects of haven’t even matured yet.
That's what I believe why there's no aliens to come. Any "intelligent species" would destroy or deplete the given planet environment before they could generate enough energy for interplanetary travel.
[I don't care, I'm still free](https://genius.com/8817650/Sonny-rhodes-the-ballad-of-serenity/I-dont-care-im-still-free-you-cant-take-the-sky-from-me).
[https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst\_daily/](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)
> a blend of satellite, ship, and buoy observations
Also look up ARGO floats - those are the buoys in question.
Right. But is it just 1 bouoy? And where are these bouoys? Are ocean currents drifiting and skewing data? Or are there many bouoys and this is an average temp? I keep seeing this chart and it is alarming, but id like to know how this data is collected.
Hotter than expected, faster than expected.
What goes up keeps going up! Should it eventually go down the deniers will cite this as definitive proof that there is no global warming.
Don’t worry. It won’t….eventually go down. Oh, wait! , since you put that sneaky safetyword “eventually” in there, I retract. Yes, “eventually” it will definitely come down. Because space is cold.
There are going to be consequences and consequences will happen soon. Higher sea surface temperatures mean higher air temperatures and more moisture. I.e. more extreme weather like rain bombs and more extreme heat. Add in the feedback loop and it will get worse. We are totally screwed.
Harry: Ladies and gentlemen, we are witnessing history in the making here. It's the bottom of the ninth inning, two outs, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Mother Nature, the last hope for our planet, steps up to the plate against humanity's hubris, with catastrophic climate change on the line.
Dick: You said it, Harry. This isn't just a game anymore. This is a battle for the very future of our world. Can Mother Nature deliver the knockout blow and show us the consequences of our actions?
Harry: The tension is palpable as the pitcher winds up... and here comes the pitch! Oh, my goodness! Mother Nature swings with all her might, unleashing a force unlike anything we've ever seen!
Dick: It's pandemonium here at the ballpark! The sheer power of that swing has sent shockwaves rippling through the atmosphere. We're talking about earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires raging out of control!
Harry: Humanity's hubris stands no chance against this onslaught. It's like trying to stop a tidal wave with a paper umbrella. Mother Nature is showing us the true extent of her fury, and it's a sight to behold.
Dick: You can almost feel the earth trembling beneath your feet as that ball sails out of the park and into the stratosphere. This isn't just a home run, folks. This is a reckoning.
Harry: But let's face it, if Mother Nature wins, humanity's story comes to a close. There won't be a double header, extra innings, or another chance to make things right. We've reached the end of the line.
Dick: It's a grim reality, Harry. We've ignored the warnings, pushed the limits, and now we're facing the ultimate reckoning. The earth will remain, but we will be but a footnote in its history.
Harry: So, as we bid farewell, let's reflect on what could have been and what should have been. Goodbye, and may this serve as a cautionary tale for whatever comes next in the grand narrative of our planet.
Even that much is not going to happen, says Sabine Hossenfelder. She speaks for Germany and says there is not enough extra generating capacity. So, I guess they'll push it toward the future, 2040, 2045, and so on.
Anyone here can explain the concrete impacts of this ? Seems like i've been reading news like this for 30 years and the world is going on unscathed, population is augmentating, growth is happening.
When will it be felt outside of the margins ?
When things really go to shit, think about whether you need anything vital.. Eg. Daily medications or certain foods that may not exist in collapsing society.
As someone who requires hormone therapy every day.. I will look for the nearest exit in the advent I can no longer procure the medication I need.
i take daily meds that if i didn’t i’d go full psycho probably so i feel you on that. oh no no no i don’t ever plan on “surviving” the end. i think it’s straight to the highest building for me. i just wanna know if i should still be penny pinching right now or if this is finally the turning point to just fuck off into the sunset on a high…i started doing a lunch review lol why? because i want to. i normally am so tight with money but it seems pointless to keep up with it.
> i just wanna know if i should still be penny pinching right now or if this is finally the turning point to just fuck off into the sunset on a high
Whether it's now or in 10 years is anyone's guess. All I know is the whole world seems to be continuously heading down the drain and has been since the mid to late 2010s. I say this as someone in their 30s, so I may or may not be a reliable source 😂
i’m 35 divorced single mom. i work in public service and have since college. the govt is always in a perpetual state of decay so it’s hard to gauge the real world in how bad things are sometimes if that makes any sense (like everything is broken, breaking, in disrepair and old as fuck) but what i am sure of is peoples persistent to be in complete utter denial about what’s happening.
we’re having a lovely spring here in Queens after another nonexistent winter. the nice weather makes people quickly forget that we didn’t once hit negative degrees or have any substantial snowfall which is completely insane for the Northeast.
the oceans heating up like this in my limited understanding is that the earth can no longer use then as a way to cool the air …i imagine hurricane season is going to look like it did in loki
We are going to see massive hurricanes starting in June. This season is predicted to have 11 major storms with winds in excess of 111 mph / 178 kph.
Those storm will likely last longer by picking up strength on the water, making landfall and moving back out. Larger areas will be impacted.
This means the storms on the land will also be much bigger, spawning tornadoes and massive flooding.
This is the year that just about everyone accepts that climate change is real. Too little and way too late.
I truly look forward to being told to "just hush and enjoy the nice weather" when I inevitably freak out about it being in the upper 90s on Christmas day
That's a generally false assumption, Europe would not freeze in that scenario. A more continental climate would hypothetically develop, with colder winters and hotter summers. A colder North Atlantic also promotes persistent [atmospheric blocking and hotter drought conditions in Europe](https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/03/how-melting-arctic-ice-leads-to-european-drought-and-heatwaves/). The mechanisms for significant cooling simply don't exist.
But that should all be an afterthought. If the AMOC collapses, that's pretty much a guaranteed ice age termination event as it would [catastrophically destabilise methane hydrate deposits](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35994649/). Considering we're [likely already in an ice age termination event](https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age), this scenario would pretty much guarantee an end to our current ice age cycle (yes, we're in an ice age interglacial period right now) and would likely initiate a feedback effect that tips the earth into a hyperthermal state. Methane destabilisation is believed to have contributed to previous thermal maximums such as the paleocene-eocene, when the polar regions had a tropical climate.
Would it not be more similar to Canada at the same latitudes? Definitely not an ice age. But still much, much colder at times. (If you look at the weather today, its a big differnece. In two weeks, they are about the same). On average, there's a pretty significant difference between England and Labrador. Thats also a big change in growing season and zone, and would kill off a lot of perennial plants.
The Labrador comparison is a false equivalence as it has an abnormally cold climate for its latitude due to geophysical biases. It's subjected to the cooling tendency of the coriolis effect, the same westerly winds that act to warm the western coastline of a continent have the opposite effect on the eastern side. This is especially pronounced in North America due to factors such as the Great Lakes, Hudson Bay and the Canadian Shield. By the time those westerlies have progressed across North America, they're notably dry and cool. When you factor in the Greenland ice shelf, this acts to really "lock in" the cold around Newfoundland and Labrador. So when people make the point that there's polar bears in Canada at the same latitude as England, it's the former that's the abnormality climatologically speaking.
Theoretically speaking yes, Western Europe would be subjected to more extremes than it currently sees. That would include extreme cold as there's no mechanism for blocking polar fronts moving south, but also extreme heat as there's also no mechanism to block Saharan air masses from moving north.
[This study](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379122001627) published by Wanner, Pfister, Neukom in 2022 discusses the discrepancies of the "Little Ice Age". While the LIA is a poor analog as there's no solid evidence to suggest it was related to AMOC strength, they demonstrate that a colder winter anomaly creates an overall negative annual CET (that is, to say, creates the impression is was a cold year) due to the fact that Europe's mild anomaly is pronounced during winter. Most summers during the LIA were comparable to today, with many being notably hot and dry.
During summer, there is a negative zonal temperature anomaly relative to latitude. This is a known effect of the AMOC as it feeds westerly winds which act as a summer cooling mechanism in Western Europe.
But the elephant in the room is methane destabilisation. Evidence suggests that we wouldn't even need an AMOC collapse to see a catastrophic destabilisation of methane hydrate.
> Theoretically speaking yes, Western Europe would be subjected to more extremes than it currently sees. That would include extreme cold as there's no mechanism for blocking polar fronts moving south, but also extreme heat as there's also no mechanism to block Saharan air masses from moving north.
You just described Spring this year...
Is it time humanity invests in mole solutions. I.e. living like a mole, hiding in a hole, finding resources and water underground?
I'm not talking bunkers I'm talking full on mole life.
My thoughts are yes. Yes it is time
The anime series Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann is literally about humanity living like moles for a while because limitless growth led to overshoot. It's a great show, and really delves into the idea of whether keeping growth in check is denying the core of our human spirit. Of course, it's an anime, so fighting spirit is always the answer. It's kinda funny how our political leaders are basically following the same strategy of putting blind faith into hope.
I've been thinking about writing an article about how this show perfectly encapsulates our collapse dilemma and the human condition.
I read a book called "The Molecule of More" which basically said wanting more all the time is because of dopamine. The authors said dopamine was originally a survival mechanism, but now drives our conspicuous consumption.
I actually have that book, but haven't gotten through it yet. I find the story of dopamine to be so fascinating. It seems to explain a lot about the human condition.
We're not built to *be* happy. We're built to *chase* happiness. It's a purposefully fleeting feeling, designed for survival. Realizing this paves the way to more inner peace by bypassing that inner nature.
Exactly. It's can be hard, but also very satisfying to find contentment in being happy with the way things are instead of getting consumed in cravings. The times I've found true contentment like that it feels so much more liberating than chasing the rush for more.
>Is it time humanity invests in mole solutions. I.e. living like a mole, hiding in a hole, finding resources and water underground?
Do you want mole miners? Because this is how you get mole miners.
I have a dachshund... does that count for something? Self-defense companion?
They are known to lie out in the sun until they just... die. Little dog will lie all day in the sun if given the option.
[A Sicilian immigrant built an amazing underground garden by himself](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forestiere_Underground_Gardens) in the desert and I think about this place a lot. Definitely our best option as earth heats up and the great simplification proceeds.
This is a very important point. I'm personally still hesistating but I think I should buy several 20kg bags of rice and put them in sealed containers to see me through this summer at least.
Theoretically that should happen, but there's a lot of doubt surrounding the theory as the concentrations of GHG in the biosphere isn't conducive to such a scenario.
SS: As you can see on the graph from prof Jacobson, sea surface temps tend to peak around march, and then dip in April/May.
Last year was anomalous in that March wasn't the peak, but even 2023 had the April dip before setting new records. This year is even more alarming, as not only is it hotter, but there's no sign of a dip.
If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I'm no climate scientist, but if the SST continues to rise or even hold through to July/August, it's a very strong evidence that we're in a new "climate regime".
>If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble.
I was hoping El Nino coming to an end might give us some kind of a break. It's probably still too early for that to show up in the numbers but it really needs to show up soon. Rising sea surface temps after El Nino ends is uncharted territory.
As I'm not a climate scientist I won't claim the recent highs are definitive proof of anything, maybe there will be a big dip soon but...
Most (all?) years on that graph began their dip after the March peak by early April, including el nino years. See 2023. So we should expect at least some sort of dip even if el nino wasn't a factor.
What's happening now is either completely unprecedented or VERY rare, and a good reason to lean towards the "new regime" line of thinking.
Some scientists are suggesting that recent SST data is so far from the norm that we've got an entirely new climatic system/pattern that cannot be predicted/modelled using old data.
If there's a huge EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) what we now observe is what we'll expect in a runaway hothouse earth scenario. It'll be even more fun with the multitudes of positive feedback loops kicking in with average temperatures over 1.5-2 C.
During the past 10,000 years we've been in a stable climate regime that is atypical of earth's climate history and which spawned our current agricultural civilization. We're soundly left that climate regime, and seem now to be accelerating away from that in record speed.
This video explains some of the latest graphs and has a nice 3-year SMA graph that shows rate of change of CO2, and wether we're speeding up emissions or not.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/sea\_surface\_temperatures\_going\_up\_when\_they/](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/sea_surface_temperatures_going_up_when_they/)
And people pushed back when I tried to explain that the conditions influencing the climate in the future are so drastically different than our historical experience that we don’t even have the right data to model what it could look like. We’re basically transitioned to another planet and trying to guess what it will be like having no reference.
The new La Niña stage may be starting in few months, but I bet that then still the sea surface temps will still be over all pre-2023 records. And by August, even if La Niña already started, temps will be higher than the 2023 record.
We will need a bigger Y axis, or switch to log scale.
In El Niño years the whole planet tends to be warmer than average, with some areas being significantly warmer and others normal or even slightly cooler. The warming impact of this year's moderate El Niño is estimated to be 0.2 C on the global average temperature.
So as the El Niño fades, the global average temperature might fall from the current level of 1.7 C above preindustrial to 1.5. Most likely even this small drop in temperature caused by the switch in the ENSO-cycle will be offset by the warming effect of Earth's reduced albedo however.
So, no big relief in sight.
I'm like actually flabbergasted how this doesn't already constitute "deep deep trouble". Like.. sure this looks slightly higher than last year, but if you look at other temp graphs... we've taken an exponential trajectory upwards (global land-ocean temp index [source](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/?intent=121) ). This is it, whatever happens next, I can't really say... but it's too late to hope for a downturn.
Maybe it's possible that somehow the amoc shutdown doesn't bring as much chaos as we expect. Or just stabilizes different regions. But... this is all happening.
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy
is a good source on hurricane info. IIRC, this summer is expected to be exceptionally bad, with 33 named hurricanes expected.
If we see very dramatic natural disasters, maybe a couple cities wiped off the map, maybe finally people will wake up and force our governments to act. If we have to sacrifice a part of the US to save the planet, I’m willing to bet the majority of people would prefer one of those 2 states to be the one facing the music. After all, they’re in the front seat of fucking shit up worse. The fact that idiots have been flocking to Florida the past 5 years, despite warnings from scientists and a well known history of hurricanes (now add in the difficulty getting insurance in Florida), tells me that they’re going to get what they were told to expect, and that makes them deserve that. The fact that DeSantis is a literal fascist is just the icing on the cake.
I have been assured by someone that this is an El Niño anomaly ( along with the high amount of CO2 ) and it should dip come June to July once neutral ENSO really kicks in.
Of course my problem is I do not see similar events in the calendar, so should we be expecting such temperature anomalies every five years from now on due to El Niño?
Funny you say that, because I was just thinking how quickly it's all happening now.
I never imaigned the climate would be changing so fast that we could post weekly update on some new record or disaster. I thought it would be one of those things where you forget it for a few months while it does the damage in the background... until the next big disaster.
Yes, even a rapid climate change should be imperceptible in a human lifespan. The fact we are seeing major changes in the time span of years is terrifying.
Do you expect him to tweet every day for a week or two in between record breaking events to confirm that records have not been broken on that specific day?
Why should they be going down? Anyone paying attention should know that we hit record emissions. There is zero reason why the average sea surface temp should go down, unless you do not believe the green house gas effect.
We all mostly figured out what this meant a year ago. This is just additional confirmation. It’ll still take the climate moderates a decade to acknowledge the facts.
I’m just here for the ride
The following submission statement was provided by /u/NotACodeMonkeyYet:
---
SS: As you can see on the graph from prof Jacobson, sea surface temps tend to peak around march, and then dip in April/May.
Last year was anomalous in that March wasn't the peak, but even 2023 had the April dip before setting new records. This year is even more alarming, as not only is it hotter, but there's no sign of a dip.
If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I'm no climate scientist, but if the SST continues to rise or even hold through to July/August, it's a very strong evidence that we're in a new "climate regime".
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/sea_surface_temperatures_going_up_when_they/l17xfk6/
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