Last Thoughts: The Deluge (Markley) - All Of It

Posted by Financial_Exercise88@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 35 comments

**Covering Books 4 & 5 - so this is the last post!** No spoiler tags are needed. Just be civil, legal and don’t link to any unauthorized ways to read the book. Here are the links to the first 3 posts: [The Deluge Book 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b0127s/book_club_the_deluge_by_stephen_markley/) [The Deluge Book 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bceung/book_club_the_deluge_markley_book_2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) [The Deluge Book 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bhltmk/book_clubbers_book_3_of_the_deluge_markley/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) It’s been a fun run. Thanks to all who contributed! There’ve been some great insights, theories, a link to an interview with the author… Now it’s time to finish up with your overall insights. Let’s talk specifics! Here are some suggestions: Did you find this story pessimistic, optimistic, or just realistic? What wasn’t included in Markley’s world-building that should have been included? Was 6Degrees ultimately effective and should they have gone “bigger” to begin with? I can agree with Markley that supply-side approaches are probably futile. But then he constructs an outcome where, as Ashir says, an opportunity results. See if you can comment on this without getting banned! **Final challenge:** if you think there is a more realistic (and likely) near-term collapse novel (because tbh, distant-future theories require optimism we'll last long enough to *have* a distant future), please leave your recommendation.

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35 Comments

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lunchbox_tragedy@reddit

Finished this over the weekend - wow, what a journey! Overall I liked it very much. I found it incredibly topical on collapse, and much more engrossing than Ministry for the Future. It wouldn't surprise me if Markley perused this forum. I think overall the book leans slightly optimistic in terms of human behavior...the author seems to think that democratic ideals and an anti-corporate humanistic agenda will eventually gain popular appeal (with a lot of messy nationalism/terrorism/obfuscation along the way). I personally don't have that much faith in humanity, and I wonder if some of the optimistic tone (particularly of the last chapter) came from editorial necessity to get the book published. If only in passing, however, the book acknowledges a degree of futility and inevitability of more catastrophe. Hassan's monologue on page 749. Tony's reflection on "tombstone dominoes" on page 819. The fact that the final piece of legislation is being partially hobbled by lawsuits and sabotage in the final chapter, and Matt's speculation about the world his daughter will have to live in. The book is quite stark under the surface, even if the ending is picturesque. I loved the way all the characters ended up interacting, it was like a complicated puzzle and felt like a good payoff for the length. I love how most of their chapters end up grounded in the world of the story, too. Matt's chapters are his unpublished manuscript, ditto for Jackie. Pietrus' chapters are his AI-aided memoir (which is why his actual death isn't described - the AI wouldn't have been there). Shane's chapters seem to be what the government predictive AI was able to reconstruct about her false identity (the last text box seems to hint that these are AI commentary or being provided to an investigatory body). The Siege chapter is the manuscript written by the rogue AI that Coral gives to Matt at the end. Ash's chapters are briefings written by him. Only Keeper's chapters don't have a basis in a written document in the author's world - instead we live his perspective through second person narration! My favorite chapter was Tony's final chapter where he is dying of cancer...I broke down sobbing multiple times while reading that, and a book hasn't done that too me in a long time. It was a combination of so many things...his obstinate personality and dedication to trying to make people aware of environmental collapse (a common theme in this community), his cancer and decision not to seek treatment (I work in healthcare and see real people in that situation all too often), his relationship to his kids...it was a really beautiful coda to his saga. The only part I got a little bored during was Ash's long description of some of the details of the legislation. I feel like it was tonally consistent with his character, though. It was interesting as a display of all the research the author did on potential actual policies that could address collapse. I also wonder if it was a bit of a troll on his part - making the reader wade through these long blocks of technical text only for the law to be hobbled by special interests in the end anyways, showing how futile efforts at legislation and advocacy can be when faced with the inertia of industrialized society. Thanks for the recommendation - it was a great tome! It'll be interesting to revisit over the next 15 years to see how much it reflects our future reality. I'm guessing some of these things will happen...faster than expected ;)

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LuveeEarth74@reddit

Agree wholeheartedly with everything you wrote. You’re the first person I’ve seen who also concluded the various character viewpoints were various form of AI/memoir! I guess we’re Keeper, the unwashed masses. I adored the hell out of this book and have read it twice.

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Financial_Exercise88@reddit (OP)

Reading this book, it felt very real, not optimistic at all. Except maybe the very end. Maybe he's just dishing out the reality in doses I can handle, because I see the optimism in my re-read. For example, the pastor is the first presidential candidate to talk about executing his rivals? Lol, shouldn't have underestimated Trump. They hit 1.5 °C in 2036? Oops, only missed it by 13 years because that happened the very year the book was released. The true terror of this book is to read how realistically awful things seem and then realize this is the happy fairy-tale version of what is coming. Except without the chaos from 6Degrees. We're probably already too monitored for any kind of resistance, not that it would help anyway.

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LuveeEarth74@reddit

Future Timeline (the website) lost me by still, STILL predicting 1.5 by the mid thirties. I don’t get that.

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arkmundi@reddit

"The true terror of this book is to read how realistically awful things seem and then realize this is the happy fairy-tale version of what is coming." Yes. My current reading includes The Deluge and coverage of Climate at The Guardian. Syncopation has me dizzy in the head.

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sagethewriter@reddit

I think they mention scientists starting to consider cat-6 hurricanes in 2036, which is already being talked about now, along with hurricane Kate reaching cat-5 within 24 hours, which has already happened with hurricane Otis. These events obviously happened after the book was published but its wild to see even 'dire' prediction come to life FTE

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Lord_Vesuvius2020@reddit

The final Keeper story leading up to the assassinations was among the most horrific narratives I have ever read. Here’s a guy barely hanging on and desperate for money. All he’s ever been is shit on. So he isn’t going to question what he’s getting paid a lot to do. And then the final lie that the heavy vest he has to wear is a “fake”. In the end he knows what he’s signed up for. Maybe he accepts that the arc of his life has no hope and has to end with this final sacrifice for his family. The fate of the Pastor is another example of nothing even halfway decent survives. This is collapse. Maybe you will say that there still is a country left at the end. Maybe not.

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unbreakablekango@reddit

I agree with you, Keeper was the only storyline that showed what would happen to the real average person who is just going to get absolutely shit on with every climate disaster that is in store for us. All of the other characters in this book were (needfully from a story teller's perspective) people of means and influence. Markley should write a sequel from the perspective of a few more Keeper type characters, who just have to Mad Max their way through the apocalypse.

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LuveeEarth74@reddit

The “unwashed masses”.

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LuveeEarth74@reddit

Late but I love this Novel by Markley and his debut, Ohio. They’re both my favorites along with The Stand. The Keeper narrative was horrifying from start to finish (the field with the farm equipment which was turned into yet another Midwest strip mall), his dreams of the pink umbrella, his addiction, the relationships he had (with absolutely everyone in his life, unstable and teetering), and then his end. My God. Apparently Tom Hanks and Markley were shopping this around Hollywood, to turn the novel into visual media. Tom probably wants to play Tony.

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sagethewriter@reddit

did they ever reveal who the insider that helped Shane was? At the end, Matt briefly theorizes that Ash could be behind more strings than he lets on, but I don't find that a satisfactory answer

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Financial_Exercise88@reddit (OP)

Tinkerbell, you mean? I'm pretty sure it was never revealed but would be outside Ash's ability to influence & expertise. I'd assume that when Shane disappeared, knowing what was to come, she warned Tinkerbell, who then also discontinued any further involvement.

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sagethewriter@reddit

I did some additional thinking and during the last chapter when Coral gives Matt the folder on his file, she tells him about a potential AGI who might be looking and picking people out of nothing but sheer preference and interest inside of their learning algorithms. Something tells me Markley might’ve hinted towards a benevolent AI consciousness that might’ve been shifting things towards scenarios where actual change might erupt. Matt also says that Ash told him long ago that things will basically need to get much worse to force people who have power now to surrender it, which on a larger scale this theorized AGI would’ve considered.

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Financial_Exercise88@reddit (OP)

Benevolent AI is an interesting idea. Would it be utilitarian or favor its creators, or scientists, or historically underrepresented groups, or...? If utilitarian, how would it solve the trolley problem? Would it orchestrate 200 million to die (things get worse) so that 7.5 billion would be saved? Or would it sacrifice 7.5 billion now so that trillions of future generations could live? What decisions can you make when literally every decision means someone somewhere will consequently die? Interesting & horrific times we live in

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the_mouthybeardyone@reddit

I loved it... Until maybe the last twenty pages. It just felt rushed and suddenly "here are all the things that have changed and it's all going to be hard

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theclitsacaper@reddit

That last 20 pages is what makes the book publishable. It's a much better book if you just stop after the penultimate chapter.

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srr210@reddit

I also agree the last 20 pages was a weird departure. I sincerely doubt that if the average Joe is facing the economic problems that Keeper was facing that Kate Moss's 7th day movement would really gain steam in any sincere way. I believe the government would fully break down sooner than redistribute resources away from the rich or implement a managed carbon removal and adaptation plan. Furthermore the idea that there is still enough industrial capacity to roll out any of the carbon capture/storage or sudden adaptation measure by the time they could be successfully legislated seems like an unfortunate and unusual dose of copium in the book.

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rdwpin@reddit

agreed. you said it better than I did.

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rdwpin@reddit

I got a list here a few months ago of climate collapse novels, bought them, and have read almost all of them. The Deluge is unbelievably good even as several others are pretty good. But the Deluge reads like a forecast of what will happen. I can't compliment Markley enough. (I have to read the first three threads and his interview I see mentioned above.) And yet as a literary novel it's one of the best. It could be total science fiction and it's a great story. The fact that it's science fiction that appears will play out pretty close to this is phenomenal story telling. Because it's been a few weeks since I finished it, and with glancing at stuff at end to refresh my memory, it was boldly open ended on what will follow but also overly optimistic in my opinion of conditions at that point and living conditions. If I am forgetting anything please correct me. I think in some sense as an author Markley is limited to a HEA direction as a doom ending wouldn't be received well. Nevertheless his accurate take throughout story will result in a doom ending in my opinion. Other than that there weren't loose ends to speak of or puzzlement, tied together well. I look forward to other comments. I wanted to see discussion on this and came back after a few months reading to see the discussion. Thanks for the thread.

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unbreakablekango@reddit

Do you mind sharing where you found that list of books?

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rdwpin@reddit

It was in various /collapse threads and then further searching. I'll post the list I ended up buying and reading: Parable of the Sower - Octavia E. Butler Parable of The Talents - Octavia E. Butler The Ministry of the Future - Kim Stanley Robinson Oryx and Crake - Margaret Atwood The Year of The Flood - Margaret Atwood MaddAdam - Margaret Atwood The Handmaid's Tale - Margaret Atwood Station Eleven - Emily St. John Mandel The Deluge - Stephen Markley The Collapse - Penelope Wright The Light Pirate - Lily Brooks-Dalton The Windup Girl - Paolo Bacigalupi Water Knife - Paolo Bacigalupi Ship Breaker - Paolo Bacigalupi Tool Of War - Paolo Bacigalupi The Drowned Cities - Paolo Bacigalupi Clean Air - Sarah Blake By The Feet of Men - Grant Price Hydrosphere Rising - Philip J. Rutherford The Drowned World - J. G. Ballard Severance - Ling Ma also series I haven't watched: Station Eleven - HBO The Collapse - Apple TV There are many other dystopian with bleak future landscapes but mostly due to nuclear war, etc. that I'm aware of, didn't buy for this list. Severance not climate based but interesting survival.

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Celtiberian2023@reddit

Years and years HBO

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blueskiesandclover@reddit

Don't forget Silent Spring !

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unbreakablekango@reddit

Wow, thank you! This is a great list. Looks like I am already through about a third of it. I just started Ministry for the Future.

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Financial_Exercise88@reddit (OP)

Idk, I agree it may have been too optimistic but specifically in 2 ways. First, the very last few pages make it seem like there's a chance. With 850 pages before that of chances being crushed, maybe not? But would even the beginnings of the last chapter happen? But it's not a sin to be optimistic. It *could* happen. Second, every time there's a major disaster, I don't feel like we really feel it. The millions of refugees, where do they go? How do we compensate for the dust bowl crop losses? And the knock-on effects, like in the chaos of disaster recovery, how many millions are pouring across the Keys or the southern border? Instead, society's just slightly more crazy.

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FedericoValeri@reddit

First of all, I loved the book in pure literary terms and I found it a very good take on our current collapse predicament I found the novel realistic on the ecological and political side. A little bit too optimistic on the institutional side. From what we have seen in the last 34 years since the first IPCC report I don't think we are going to react in any way. I think that Markley should have also put a more positive light on religion. I'm an atheist but I'm even at a point in my life where I've concluded that only some kind of religion can put us out of this mess because most regular people are blind to rational arguments (for good evolutionary reasons) and need these kind of emotive institutions to be moved instead. Herbert was right all along. Yes, protestantism has many ugly sides and it's a training ground for narcisism, But there are many other faces to religion. I believe that something like the Castalia in Hesse's Glass Bead Game is a better model to face our predicament. 6h degree was wrong because you cannot build a better world using the instruments of the enemy. Supply side won't work because as I said in the first part of the post, the opportunity won't be taken by our current institutional framework. I think that Herbert's Dune with all its metaphor is a better novel about collapse because it understands the inner working of evolution, religion and culture while Markely is too invested in his politics and democracy like most decent americans who do not want to face that they are just an Empire and not a real democracy.

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willisjs@reddit

Several religions(Theravada Buddhism, Christianity, Jainism among others) have wonderful ideas that are compatible with sustainable living. Unfortunately, the best ideas themselves aren't viral enough to reshape society because they reduce evolutionary fitness. Mammon and Moloch always win.

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FedericoValeri@reddit

Most "axial" religions were born out of historical collapses of complex societies. When the system is stable after a long "dark age", the Moloch of civilization returns because human mind strive for growth and power. But let's survive the probable collapse of industrial civilization and reduce as much harm as possibile first, shall we?

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MucilaginusCumberbun@reddit

> I believe that something like the Castalia in Hesse's Glass Bead Game is a better model to face our predicament. could you expand on this to someone that hasn't read the book?

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FedericoValeri@reddit

I'll try: the glass bead game is Hesse's magnum opus (even if Siddharta is probably more renowed). In his book Hesse imagine the birth of a mystical and intellectual monastic movement that controls a small part of Europe as some sort of happy political utopia. Castalia's beliefs are not based around the precept of any classical religion in particular or any other kind of theism but on the practice of a game (the glass bead game of the title) whose end is to preserve in an abstract way the artistic and intellectual heritage of mankind while creating a comunity of like minded individual who favors spirituality and enlightment over materialism and wealth. My point is that modern politics (of which political activism of any kind is part and parcel) belong to the industrial-fossil fuel paradigm who has caused our predicament so they can't hardly be part of the solution. We cannot return to the past but we can rediscover the rational and scientific value of mystical and religious practices and that can lead us beyond "game theory" therritory and help us to rebuild after we face collapse (I don't think we can avoid collapse, I just hope we can survive it as a species without devolving in to barbarism and the war of all against all: unvoluntary de-population is the only way I see we can have a "soft landing" after the collpase of industrial civilization). That's happened many times before, every time humans have faced collapse, some sort of "axial" thinker has emerged, salvaging the wisdom of the past and guiding humanity beyond the hard times in a new direction. So it's not as far fetched and new agey as it can sound. John Vervaecke is proposing a similar pathway ahead in his "awakening from the meaning crisis" youtube course (even if he do not ever mention the world collapse). Mind, I'm not saying that it's a guarantee, I'm not even sure we will survive the next collapse as a species. Just saying that I don't believe that politics and democracy can save us alone.

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willisjs@reddit

> Final challenge: if you think there is a more realistic (and likely) near-term collapse novel (because tbh, distant-future theories require optimism we'll last long enough to have a distant future), please leave your recommendation. The Sheep Look Up by John Brunner Best science fiction novel of all time. Also, not speculative fiction, but amazing collapse fiction: Grapes of Wrath by John Steinbeck.

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Lord_Vesuvius2020@reddit

Out by the gas fires of the refinery II’m ten years burning down the road Nowhere to run ain’t got nowhere to go Born in the USA I was born in the USA I’m a long gone daddy in the USA

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GreenPL8@reddit

It was a beast of a 40 hours audiobook at 1.7x speed. What I didn't like, was that it was extremely US-centric. It was like the world beyond the United States didn't exist.

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rdwpin@reddit

So after looking back at the end, I do want to clarify Markley couldn't be as stark as called for with events and no action up to that date. Through Matt talking about his toddler daughter starting with "This horror has no conclusion." he does paint a very bleak picture indeed, even as newly discovered CO2 absorbing material is draping building and plants are growing everywhere etc. Just before the daughter was born, there was the massive gigantic Eastern US destroying storm they survived in NC. It ends up being like a finale disaster in a movie and then cue to epilog and people are sipping tea a couple of years later and contemplating the future. But the reality is, and what's missing here and almost not possible to not miss if the book is to ever end, is that the storms and heat and other conditions they were suffering would not abate, would only grow more severe and continuous. So it just gives a look at end as well we're not out oif the woods but we're going to survive. The ppm is even given, and accurately for the events, at 452 ppm. It even says will be several years to wind down the fossil fuels companies properly. I love this book and if we survive it join the classics of all time but that monster storm which is described in some detail as to impact would occur again and again, with building heat. At that point you can't just wind down fossil fuels and come up with some material that absorbs CO2 which quite frankly wouldn't keep CO2 from continuiing to rise if you're just starting to wind down use . Just putting some technical aspects to the feeling of the rushed ending which is quite stark and yet not nearly stark enough. Nevertheless, this is a master piece of work that the world needs to read and absorb.

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Financial_Exercise88@reddit (OP)

I could **not** have said it better! This is the epilog.