Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) on X: Global Sea Surface temps again in record territory at 21.11 C, a temperature not seen in any year prior to 2024. We live in interesting times.

Posted by Portalrules123@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 185 comments

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Final-Enthusiasm505@reddit

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is ALARMING. However, it is a "symptom" of a deeper problem. The Global Ocean is RAPIDLY WARMING. The Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is what really matters for the next "few thousand" years in terms of the planetary climate. **The OHC increased by +15 Zetta Joules in 2023, as measured by the ARGO float network.** We measure the heat going into the oceans in terms of Hiroshima Class bombs per second of ENERGY being added to the oceans. **In 2010 it USED to be around +5 Hiros/second. Back when the EEI was around +0.5W/m2.** NOW, it's about +15 Hiros/second. **The "Hiro Count" correlates very closely to the EEI. The EEI has INCREASED from +0.3W/m2 in 2004 to about +1.7W/m2 TODAY.** Most of that increase has been in the last three years as the SOx levels have plummeted, in response to changes in the composition of marine diesel fuels (they took 85% of the sulfur out starting in 2020). **Here are the TWO main “camps” in Climate Science expressing HOW MUCH “heat energy” they think was added to the Oceans in 2023.** 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data) — NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCEI (Americans) 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data) — Everyone Else **The DIFFERENCE between these two numbers is SIGNIFICANT. The AMERICAN “estimate” is about -40% LOWER than everyone else.** WHY? **Mostly because the Americans are using flawed "guesstimates" from the 70's about the Earth Climate Sensitivity (ECS). They HAVE to.** Because, if they admit they were WRONG and guessed 'too low' when they said it was OK to "Drill baby Drill". They would be admitting that they have KILLED us all with with their HUBRIS and STUPIDITY. The American Climate Science community at GISS and NOAA is NEVER going to say that they were "wrong". So now their models are -40% lower than everyone else and they are 'baffled" as to WHY the "real world" isn't working the way they say it should. From the article “[Oceans break heat records five years in a row. The heat stored in the world’s oceans increased by the greatest margin ever in 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00081-0#ref-CR1).” “Cheng and his co-authors studied two data sets on ocean heat content: one from the IAP and the other from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States.” The IAP data show that the heat stored in the upper 2,000 metres of oceans increased by +15 zettajoules in 2023 compared with that stored in 2022. This, is an ENORMOUS AMOUNT of energy. Most people have NO CONCEPT of how to VISUALIZE that number in a “relatable” MEANINGFUL WAY. **How to “see” 15(ZJ) worth of ENERGY.** A Zetta joule is a joule (the work it takes to make a watt of power for a second) with 21 zeros behind it. Thats 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules. Unfortunately that number is “unreal” to most people. It’s hard to FEEL what it means. Which is why it is often expressed in terms of HIROS. Which is short for Hiroshima class atomic bombs. **In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 5 HIROS per SECOND.** The EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) has increased from +0.5W/m2 in 2010, to +1.7W/m2 in 2024. Basically TRIPLING. The EEI has TRIPLED since 2010. There is NO QUESTION about that. It’s a FACT. That’s a FLOOD of ENERGY into the Climate System. 90% of it goes into the OCEANS. Global Warming is OCEAN WARMING after all. SO. In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about +5 HIROS per SECOND. **In 2023 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about +15 HIROS per SECOND.** That’s 900 Hiros per minute. 54,000 Hiros per hour. 1,296,000 Hiros per day. 473,040,000 Hiros per year. The surface area of the global ocean is 139,000,000 square miles. **That’s 3.4 HIROS for EVERY SQUARE MILE of OCEAN in the WORLD last year.** **That’s what +15 ZJ means.** **If you go back to the 50's it works out to about +99 Hiros of ENERGY per sq. mile of ocean of added HEAT in the last 70 years.** **About 14 Billion Hiros worth of ENERGY.** **The Chicxulub Impact Event 65mya (aka the "dinosaur killer") is estimated to have ONLY released 10 billion Hiros worth of ENERGY into the Climate System.** It’s easier to viscerally FEEL what a large number MEANS. When you can visualize it against something relatable. Everyone understands what an atomic blast looks like and does. It makes it easier to understand WHY, collapse is coming SOON. We FUCKED UP.

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Mission-Notice7820@reddit

Where does the 1.7 number come from btw? Is there an official source?

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Cease-the-means@reddit

Thanks for the numbers on the comparison to the chicxulub event. Really puts it to perspective. An equivalent disaster only spread out over 70 years instead of being instantaneous. Except 70 years IS instantaneous on any kind of geological timescale...

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SplittingAssembly@reddit

wow, that's crazy. Did you hear that Timothée Chalamet is dating Kylie Jenner, though?

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winston_obrien@reddit

If Muad’Dib can’t save us, who can?

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ebolathrowawayy@reddit

Everyone should read this.

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S1ckn4sty44@reddit

I wish I could show someone this graph and actually feel like it would make a difference. Instead it's just a horrifying line that we get to watch as we all start to burn. We just had to have it all.

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dotcha@reddit

>Earthers get to walk outside into the light, breathe pure air, look up at a blue sky, and see something that gives them hope. And what do they do? They look past that light, past that blue sky. They see the stars, and they think, "mine".

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Ndgo2@reddit

God the Expanse was fucking beautiful. The fact that it, along with so many pther great works of art will be lost in the fires to come is the worst part about collapse to me. I don't care that millions of people are going to die, or that the global economy and society is going to get electrocuted to death. Not one iota of a fuck about any of that. I care about all those stories that our descendants (if we have any) will never know, those journeys of human imagination that they will never experience, those vistas of creation they will never see. A digital library that would humble a thousand Alexandrias, and it will all be lost in the cataclysm to come. That is the real tragedy.

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Portalrules123@reddit (OP)

I feel you. Endless growth was chosen again and again over sustainability. Pathetic, really.

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S1ckn4sty44@reddit

It will continue to be this way.

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HolidayLiving689@reddit

I'm hoping nature and physics puts us in our place very very soon. I hope something crazy big happens this year. I'm tired of waiting. I'm not fantasizing about leading a mad max style gang. I know full well how this ends. Those who die quick are the lucky ones. Humanity has earned this tho.

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TheITMan52@reddit

I mean... we did have a pandemic happen not long ago.

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BeardedGlass@reddit

And it’s noticeable that the places on Earth that live simply are the ones in a bubble of peace right now. Places where preservation is chosen over constant progress.

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4ourkids@reddit

As Musk whines about a judge rejecting his $56B compensation and Sam Altman is trying to raise $7T for AI. Where are the billionaires with power fighting for a livable planet? I’m convinced they’re all narcissistic sociopaths. If the solution doesn’t make them even more money and give them more power it’s of no interest.

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MrVisible@reddit

The behavior of the wealthy and powerful makes perfect sense if climate change isn't a soluble problem.

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dduchovny@reddit

it was solvable and likely still is, but the solution is incompatible with the current system - and would require massive, unprecedented loss of human life. when the only solution is tearing down society and covering the earth in biodiverse forests again, it just turns out that people would rather die.

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MrVisible@reddit

I'd argue that making the changes to society that would be necessary would be impossible without a world war. It's damned if you do, and damned if you don't. When the solutions involve this kind of impossible change, the problem isn't soluble. Thus, the bunkers.

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dduchovny@reddit

yeah, there's little difference between something being technically impossible or physically impossible when you get down to it. while it's maybe physically possible it is societally a non-starter.

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MrVisible@reddit

And no-one understands the limits to wealth and power better than the wealthy and powerful.

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dduchovny@reddit

the thing is, i think a billionaire with the right priorities could have half a chance. if they weren't manchildren intent on being the first to die in space nothing would stop them from buying up huge tracts of land, demolishing what's already there, and planting whatever the hell they want, hiring private armies to protect it where necessary. a sufficiently large-scale effort in this direction could go a very long way to mitigating the issues we face - it's not their wealth or power that's limited but their imagination.

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MrVisible@reddit

I'm sorry, but billionaires buying up huge quantities of arable land and then not using it to feed people isn't going to be either uncontroversial, or uncontested. And whatever they grow there will be affected by fires, floods, drought, and the cataclysmic weather we're starting to see. It'd be a very risky investment. There's really no easy solution, no matter how much money or power one person has.

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dduchovny@reddit

i'm not saying it's an easy solution or that it'd be uncontroversial or uncontested. none of these are problems that currently seem to hold billionaires back from doing whatever they want to. and while definitely being beyond a risky investment in that there is absolutely no chance of recuperating the money spent, it's also the only option for any chance at a future where they can continue to be alive.

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MrVisible@reddit

The other possible chance at a future where they remain alive is to build bunkers with bioregenerative life support systems/controlled ecological life support systems where they can ensure that they have a small society with clean air and water and food and medical care. It'd take quite a bit of investment to get there, but the technology is viable; China did a year with a small crew in Lunar Palace One recently, for instance. And this investment is guaranteed to pay off. If we can figure it out, we can live anywhere there are resources to exploit; the Moon, the ocean, Antarctica. Even if the climate suddenly and inexplicably fixes itself, figuring out how to build biospheres opens up a lot of investment opportunity. So, like I said. The behavior of the wealthy and powerful makes perfect sense if climate change isn't a soluble problem. And they really don't seem to be behaving like it's soluble.

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dduchovny@reddit

nah, the bunkers are guaranteed to fail as they wholly depend on technology that can only be created and maintained by a functioning, globalized, industrial society. if billionaires had any sense in their heads they'd go whole hog on my idea and abandon their expensive tombs.

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MrVisible@reddit

My point is, if they thought they could stop climate change, that's the sort of thing they'd be doing. Instead, they're building bunkers. And their behavior is completely rational if they're operating from the premise that climate change can't be stopped.

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dduchovny@reddit

and my point is that if they're operating from that premise, they're wrong - as it can be stopped. the problem is that it can't be stopped while maintaining globalized society or the creature comforts they've grown used to. therefore their actions are not rational.

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MrVisible@reddit

I think the difference between "it can't be stopped while maintaining globalized society" and "it can't be stopped" is negligible. But obviously, this is where we differ, so I think this conversation is at an impasse. Thank you for your time.

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HolidayLiving689@reddit

I just really hope the bunker builders and operators stab their fearless leaders in the neck as soon as they try to enter the bunker.

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MrVisible@reddit

I hope that people will figure out that the wealthy and powerful are building bunkers. I hope people pirate the technology that the wealthy and powerful are developing to build their own bunkers which aren't run by the wealthy and powerful. And I hope that people use the research that's been done by astrosociologists on how to manage small populations in a survival situation in alien environments to help govern their bunkers. Mostly, I just hope enough people survive so that everything everyone has ever done hasn't been in vain.

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J701PR4@reddit

My biggest disappointment is that America has so many billionaires but not a single one has become Batman.

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Somebody37721@reddit

>Batman. You mean Bauman? Coz in the movies he just fucks up all the overshoot, carrying capacity mitigation people Ra's al Gul, Bane, Joker etc. They WERE the GOOD GUYS

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TinyDogsRule@reddit

Batman appears when the first trillionaire arrives.

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atalpa7@reddit

https://i.redd.it/og7gmqdj7gu61.jpg

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ebolathrowawayy@reddit

At this point the only thing that can save us is ASI that massively scales out efficient fusion which powers desalination and carbon capture at a massive scale. Tbh, this has been the case for the last 20 years, or forever if you're into hard determinism.

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Cloud_Barret_Aerith@reddit

Fusion would likely just kill us faster. Imagine giving the rich infinite energy. Come oooooon.

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ebolathrowawayy@reddit

It's difficult to make weapons of mass destruction with fusion, so fusion could be deployed to every country, helping to solve inequality and reducing the cost of everything. Mass scale of fusion and carbon capture would solve our climate crisis, provided rich people want to deploy it this way. I assume they would rather not live in their bunkers. Population growth is largely fine. As less developed countries become more developed, birth rates decline. I don't think "giving the rich infinite energy" translates to doom. I know with absolute certainty that climate change, unabated, does translate to doom.

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RogerStevenWhoever@reddit

There are other ecological boundaries and resource shortages we're pushing up against other than CO2 levels and energy. Fusion at scale might keep industrial civilization going for longer, but it might also make the inevitable collapse steeper, to Cloud_Barret_Aerith's point.

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ebolathrowawayy@reddit

I can't think of any other boundaries that are problematic. Can you enlighten me? Metals can be extracted from asteroids, moons and planets. If we get ASI and solve climate change, space is right around the corner.

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RogerStevenWhoever@reddit

Sure, [this is the framework I'm talking about](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html). Also note that even with outer space, we'd still have to fundamentally overhaul our growth-imperative economic system, as infinite growth will run into [thermodynamic limits.](https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/)

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ebolathrowawayy@reddit

I think we can start to worry about thermodynamic limits a few million years from now. Novel entities - reads like the rate of introduction of microplastics, teflon, PFAS, etc. This one seems like it's not too terribly far behind climate change in terms of danger. It's still miles away from the concern of catastrophic warming, but it's a serious threat unlike all of their other metrics.

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Semoan@reddit

space is around the corner so does military production and the police state

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will_begone@reddit

I figure ASI will fix the problem in the easiest way possible. Human extinction.

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next_door_rigil@reddit

That is the technological side but I feel that politically and internationally, the whole structure needs to be redesigned for the challenge. Resources need to be allocated as needed to the most critical places irrespective of nation or wealth, global cooperation, monitoring and control needs to be implemented, centralization of the most critical decisions and tasks based on boards of experts. This implies a sort of world government at least for environmental policies. This is the most efficient and safe way to tackle the climate. However, people don't like the idea of a world government with reason since this can easily lead to abuse of power. Some people don't even like the low effort Paris accords that every country willingly agreed to commit to.

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Gentle-Zephyrus@reddit

Why desalination? I get the carbon capture though. thanks

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ebolathrowawayy@reddit

I think the severity of drought is going to surprise a lot of people. Just an opinion.

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Blunt_Face@reddit

Everybody keeps talking about AI and it’s just taking up more water. We need to use for ourselves. The billionaires are really out of it right now Who cares if computers can think if we’re dead

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ReliefOwn8813@reddit

Endemic problem of capital: capital develops and mobilizes an amazing power to solve problems. But it has no way of knowing what problems should be solved, objectively. If something would enable them to sell something new, entire technical workforces will mobilize around it. If it can make their profit one percent more efficient, scientists will work for it. But if it’s something that a market incentive does not inflect, all those scientific resources will stay idle and misallocated.

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Comfortable_Air_7037@reddit

I'm convinced these aren't problems money can solve

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likeupdogg@reddit

Of course they're all narcissistic sociopaths, that's the behaviour our financial system rewards. You can't be a generous person and also make a billion dollars.

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HeCedSoMuch@reddit

Ignorance, mostly.

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Lowkey_Retarded@reddit

I showed it to a coworker and he just said “huh” and promptly busied himself with his phone. People don’t want to see this stuff.

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DjangoBojangles@reddit

A lot of people can't read graphs. Half of people are below average.

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Lowkey_Retarded@reddit

It wasn’t a matter of “he didn’t know what the lines meant”, we were talking about how unseasonably warm it’s been and I started talking about climate change and brought up a SST graph from last week and explained it to him. He even said “Man, it looks like they’re gonna need to make the graph taller!” And I said “Yeah, they already did that last year since it was hotter then than it had been before.” That’s when he just got quiet and started scrolling FB. I also got into a debate with a dude on another sub on Sunday who was saying how everything was fine and climate change isn’t an issue. We were going back and forth, I was sending him articles and graphs from “reputable” sources (NOAA, Vox, CBS News, even that xkcd timeline), and he was just responding that they’ll figure it out with renewables. I’d written a long, sourced comment pointing out the issues with renewables and nuclear, and when I hit “Reply”, it wouldn’t send. I thought maybe Reddit was down, but he either blocked me or deleted his account because all his comments were deleted. People would rather live in denial than understand what’s happening.

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hysys_whisperer@reddit

You were interacting with a paid troll, who's sole purpose is to make it seem like there's reasonable dissent. Once the comment chain shows otherwise, they delete their account and make a new one to avoid people reading the whole chain and realizing they were wrong.

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wilerman@reddit

Most people in my office either don’t believe climate change is real or think that it’s a good thing, are they paid trolls too?

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hysys_whisperer@reddit

Do they delete their account or avoid any other documentation of the argument when confronted with evidence while trying to convince others otherwise? Or do they just double down? If it's the latter, I wouldn't suspect a paid troll. Just an idiot

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Daisho@reddit

The beauty of running a troll farm is that you'll inevitably pick up idiots who do your work for free. It's very cost-efficient.

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LegSpecialist1781@reddit

Idk, go over to r/optimistsunite. It is FILLED with people saying the same stuff.

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Cdog927@reddit

Man the heads are buried deep over there 🤣

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TCcrack@reddit

They say it’s us. Guess time will tell

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Ruby2312@reddit

I prefer that they are right personally. Really hope they are the smart ones and i’m the lunatic with a sign

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Cdog927@reddit

Ya. Reality will probably swing both ways initially, before finally swinging our way with a loud thud. Yay

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leo_aureus@reddit

Oh my god what is that nonsense of a sub? Love how they have posts making fun of us for no collapse while the natural world and our own human institutions both die around us, it is just hilarious after all.

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LegSpecialist1781@reddit

People used to smoke a lot more, so civilization must be in good shape!

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likeupdogg@reddit

Nobody on that sub understands the gravity of the climate situation nor massive energy requirements of modern society. Ultimately their optimism manifests as "just keep living the exact same way everything will work out fine!".

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likeupdogg@reddit

Don't underestimate the stupidity of humans. I'm from Alberta and I meet people who genuinely hold these views everyday. There is a deliberate propaganda campaign here coming from oil money that feeds little seeds of doubt to right wing conservatives. They're all so damn paranoid that the scientists are lying, when I push for details it always seems to stem from a single controversial data set from 20 fucking years ago. I wonder who is pushing that to the forefront. Not to mention our economy runs on oil so it's literally impossible for us to transition while continuing economic growth, but politicians aren't allowed to admit this apparently and have to lie to the entire population. Now expectations are completely out of line and we're primed for a shit show.

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DjangoBojangles@reddit

Stolen wealth used to finance troll farms to waste the time, energy, and motivation of opposition. The absolute scum of humanity. Fucking fascists.

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huehuehuehuehuuuu@reddit

Does your coworker have children? I never bring climate issues up when interacting with people who have children, unless they start first. To love your child and think too deeply about what’s coming year after year can drive a person insane now instead of later. And we are creatures that live in the now and are notoriously bad at long term planning.

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ElkEnvironmental3492@reddit

There are many people with kids who see what's coming. I believe I know where we are going and I have 4 kids. Granted I had them before I realised how bad it is, but anyway, having kids isn't necessarily a reason why people don't want to understand.

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Lowkey_Retarded@reddit

That’s a good point. I don’t have any by design, he has kids who are all grown and some grandkids.

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wilerman@reddit

I got into it with someone on a gardening sub recently, someone said it’s something to prepare for and he wanted to know what. I said “immediate future? Wildfires, water shortages, rolling blackouts.” He called that “insane rambling that will never come true.” The funny thing is that I basically just described last year, not the future. He deleted his account the next day when he got mobbed with evidence.

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NevDot17@reddit

Sounds like a gish gallop designed to waste your time and exhaust you so over time you give up trying

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gangstasadvocate@reddit

A lot of people can read graphs and half are above average as well. Why doesn’t it balance out?

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Sinistar7510@reddit

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them aren't as stupid as that." Nope... Doesn't have the same ring to it.

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Palujust@reddit

Think of how stupid the average person is and realize that roughly two thirds of them are within one standard deviation of that. *Assuming a normal-ish distribution of intelligence

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Cease-the-means@reddit

"There are two kinds of people in this world, those who know what a standard deviation is and fucktards." Has a better ring to it I think.

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Ih8weebs@reddit

Currently living in the midwest, I really feel that second sentence.

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Sinistar7510@reddit

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” ― George Carlin

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score_@reddit

"Doesn't look like anything to me."

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guyseeking@reddit

Have you ever questioned the nature of your reality?

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S1ckn4sty44@reddit

I have done this as well but in the end it just causes my blood pressure to go up lol

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RyeBredTheJunglist@reddit

I made a song last week and used this graph as part of the album art for my song. Hoping just one person will see so the world can have an iota more sanity, but I totally expect no one to understand or care or both.

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Cease-the-means@reddit

I'm actually thinking of using this image generally as a background for things. PowerPoint presentations, Teams calls, Memes, Social media posts whatever. Just make it an ever present thing with no explanation. People who know will be reminded of the performative pointlessness of whatever work related task we are doing. People who don't know will eventually go "Wait, what is this thing I keep seeing everywhere?".

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LuciferianInk@reddit

I've been working on this project since last year. I'm still trying to figure out how I'll integrate the data into a new version.

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Deguilded@reddit

We really did have everything, didn't we?

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huehuehuehuehuuuu@reddit

Nope some of our owners have everything. We got the larger scraps. Many others got barely any scraps. And now we will all suffer for it, with the ownership class having the strongest buffers and best mobility.

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klaschr@reddit

Don't Look Up :'(

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Taqueria_Style@reddit

Everything except for a larger y-axis. Coming soon!

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_Cromwell_@reddit

You can show it to a Kansas City Chiefs football fan. They can comprehend this sort of chart because it looks like a "Patrick Mahomes versus all other quarterbacks" stats chart they are used to looking at.

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Bloodfangs09@reddit

The concrete can't be changed

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Solid_Waste@reddit

Who's "we"? I don't recall being consulted.

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Zergin8r@reddit

Temps in Jan were higher than any point before this, barring a few month between March and July-Oct last year. How can anyone be so delusional that they can look at temps being almost 1.5C above the average 20 years ago, with over 50% of that increase over the last few years and think that things are fine. If things increase exponentially like this, we will hit 2C next year or early 2026, and 3C a few years after that.

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HarbingerDe@reddit

It will most likely not happen that way. The El Nino pattern is already shifting to La Nina. Next year, or even the next couple years, could be cooler than 2024 *(like every year after 2016 was cooler until 2023).* Doesn't mean the scenario isn't horrifying, just that we should prepare for things to flatten again *(and all the idiotic denialism that will come with that).*

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Evening_Speech_7710@reddit

So if its cooler the next couple years, would it delay the effect of climate change to beyond our lifetime? I’m genuinely so stressed about this. Barely enjoyed life and just as I start to really progress in my career and have all these hopes and dreams, the impending doom of climate change just reminds me that life will just get worse…

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HarbingerDe@reddit

Unfortunately, things will probably get pretty bad during our lifetimes if you're close to my age (24). All I was saying is they we're not likely on so steep an exponential curve that every year will be a similar margin worse than the previous. That would result in everything collapsing in like... 3 years... There's multiple overlapping climate patterns, one of the most notable being the El Nina La Nina oscillation. If I had to bet, I'd guess life will continue mostly as normal for the next 10ish years with the major consequences of climate change being steadily increasing food prices and more weather related disasters. Hard to say how things go from there.

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Evening_Speech_7710@reddit

I’ll be turning 23 in a few months. It’s so sad and hard to accept that as far as we know, there’s not much we can do… Might as well make these next 10 years worth it…

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vallexum@reddit

Accrue as many kind and fun memories and comfortable wealth as you can.

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Evening_Speech_7710@reddit

So do I invest in a 401k and pension or not?

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vallexum@reddit

Of course you do! You need a support network beneath you. Collapse won't happen overnight. And it may not happen where you are enough to throw in the towel.

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J701PR4@reddit

Hurricane season is going to be rough.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

I am arguing with some idiot elsewhere that monster hurricanes won’t affect him because he lives on the west coast. You know, because bad storms happen only in the Atlantic.

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modifyandsever@reddit

dude... california JUST had one

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

Yeah, I know. He is arguing that a *hypercane* on the east coast won’t affect anyone living on the west coast because he’s a prepper. He even mentions that Typhoon Tip (Pacific mega storm) won’t impact him. I just can’t with these people thinking climate change won’t hit them.

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Fox_Kurama@reddit

In fairness, he is right that a hypercane hitting the east US coast will not reach the west coast. It might not even be hurricane strength after fully passing the Apalachan mountains, let alone reach the Rockies. But yeah, hurricanes do somethings actually come from the other side, and while AMOC is the big current everyone worries about here, the overall changes to the oceans have got to have some potential to mess with Pacific currents too.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

It’s the idea that a massive storm taking out the eastern seaboard won’t have a negative effect on the entire world.

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Cleanslate2@reddit

This is so scary. I live in a trailer on the Outer Cape.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

Do you have an escape plan? Personally, I would sit down and figure out how I would leave the area, where I would go (immediately inland, next city over, next state over) and then decide how much lead time I need to get there and avoid the streaming horde. You want to leave before the authorities officially evacuate. Have paper maps to all your locations in case main roads are closed and GPS doesn’t work. Always keep a half tank of gas in your vehicle.

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Cleanslate2@reddit

My escape plan so far is to move to a house in Savannah near my daughter. I own one and rent it until I can move there. That’s it so far.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

Might be worth having a bug out bag in your car. This is a backpack or duffle bag of emergency supplies like good flashlights, some type of portable radio, paper maps, small bills like ones and fives (enough to put gas in your car if payment systems are down), a first aid kit, a list of phone numbers and addresses, a pair of sturdy walking shoes, a tarp, jacket, gloves, toilet paper, etc. I have a small amount of rice, beans and salt in case we have to camp overnight. I store my camping supplies in my car for this reason. You should have all your important papers in one location with some cash in small bills in your home that you can grab and go. When Katrina hit, there was a 400-mile traffic jam into Houston. The difference between getting out and getting trapped is about ten minutes — the time it takes to fill your car, get cash from the bank, figuring out what you might need or which way to go to avoid the main roads. It’s much easier to think about this when you’re sitting at home relaxed rather than freaking out that the authorities just announced a chemical spill a mile away. And it costs you nothing and could save your life. Understand the FEMA will lock down a disaster area rather than let you leave after a certain point. You have about thirty minutes from an announcement to all roads locked down. You do not want to be caught in a government refugee center or shelter. Oh, and include family members in the plan — where you will meet if you get separated, a second location in case the first is toast, who is responsible for what if you’re together like who fills water jugs, who gathers pets, etc. Less time arguing or discussing is time that will keep you ahead of crowds.

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Cleanslate2@reddit

I did buy a bug out bag. Just last week. I’m saving this post. I’m following your instructions. These are awesome and thank you because I’m quite frightened about it. I work for an electric utility and I’ve seen the changes in storms because I have to work every one of them. Awesome advice, and I thank you very much for taking the time to write back.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

Feel free to DM me if you have questions.

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Cleanslate2@reddit

I’m actually on storm duty right now. Once that’s over and I’m not so tired and can think more I may do that. Thank you!

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NotACodeMonkeyYet@reddit

Yeah, climate change hitting exactly where you are with a giant storm is the LEAST important factor. Fact of the matter is that if Florida or California were wiped out with a big storm that's millions of refugees that will need food and shelter, that's millions of people who used to pay taxes, no longer doing so. That's millions of tons of food, and other resources gone. When that happens price of things go up around the world, no one gets to escape the consequences completely.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

Imagine a Pacific hurricane or typhoon picking up debris from the great garbage patch and slamming into the US west coast.

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silverum@reddit

Truly astounding that everyone on Earth seems to ignore that Earth has one atmosphere. "Ahh yes but I'm in this area." Oh, so you don't have to worry about ocean acidification or the energy absorption into the system, because you live SOMEWHERE ELSE ON EARTH. Really well underscores why we're here.

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BlNGOBRONSON@reddit

I feel like I could write so much about this because it really feels like most people are the preppers saying global warming is not gonna change anything. It doesn’t matter if millions of people die, that’s “not impacting” them. It’s like how Reddit acts like climate change is extinction of nothing. They really can’t handle what’s going to happen. Then act like they’re the enlightened ones for literally burying their heads in the sand.

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flavius_lacivious@reddit

I feel like most people, including those who are “aware”, believe that climate *change* means everything gets hotter and only screwed up for other people. I am all for being prepared as much as possible. But in the past few years, we have had a tornado in New York, a crippling blizzard in Texas, a heat dome in the PNW, a hurricane in Southern California and Death Valley now is a lake. I don’t think they understand that the rules are out the window. I would not be surprised if a hurricane transitioned to a mega tornado on land or Phoenix flooded. That’s the change part.

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Cease-the-means@reddit

I've a suggestion, to keep you all occupied...

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NotACodeMonkeyYet@reddit

Acapulco is an even better example, it's on the west coast of Mexico, and it got wiped the fuck out.

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vvenomsnake@reddit

and death valley national park is still fucked up from it

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modifyandsever@reddit

the fact that a *hurricane* messed up *death valley* is so fucking backwards in my mind

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nate112332@reddit

Don't go dignifying Elon by calling Twitter "x" lol

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zippy72@reddit

Like a pirate treasure map, "x" malls the spot where they buried twitter

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futurefirestorm@reddit

We never knew we were in the golden age of the earth. Good luck to the next generations.

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RogerStevenWhoever@reddit

Yep. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum

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silverum@reddit

I mean, I think it's pretty optimistic at this point to think that any generations will be doing much other than dying. Considering that the system as is didn't actually build out or plan for this in really any way...

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Sinistar7510@reddit

It galls me how right they were in The Matrix when they described 1999 as the pinnacle of human civilization.

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pippopozzato@reddit

Yes, I am not sure what year it was maybe it was 1999 when I saw my first hydrofoil board. when one kite boards with a hydrofoil board the board is not on the surface of the water, the board hovers around 30cm above the water surface, the foil under the surface has 2 wings that give you lift, same concept as an airplane.There is no splash. Hydrofoiling with a kite pulling you is the closest thing a human can get to flying, you are not flying through the air, you are flying through the water as you hover above the water. It is I feel the greatest thing a human being can do ... our peak.

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CrazyShrewboy@reddit

Maybe The Matrix was created by time travelers from the future to warn us. lol

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canibal_cabin@reddit

I cheered so much at these film's back than (born 1981!) and what really baffled me was, that someone ( Agent Smith) literally spoke my mind in a Hollywood movie, I had hope back than,that this could change people's perception, oh sweet summer child me.....

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CantHitachiSpot@reddit

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mgS1Lwr8gq8 I found myself rooting for the agent too

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canibal_cabin@reddit

I have this theory that agent Smith is actually "the one", not nei. First because "the one" must come from within the system, according to the main programmer (old man). Second, "the one" is a child of the oracle, agent Smith is, the oracle calls him her child, neo isn't. Third , "the one" must go through some form of test and become an outlaw, exactly what happens to agent Smith after melting with neo and than he mutinies and defies his own programming, while neo just goes straight doing what he is told to. Neo is just the stepstone for agent Smith so he can become "the one", it's agent Smith's actions in the end that change the course of history, not neo's.

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Cease-the-means@reddit

Yeah, they cast the hero as the bad guy. Like if they let all the humans out, what are they going to do? More uncontrolled growth until resources are depleted followed by population crash and extinction... Actually by keeping humans alive in tanks they were preserving the species for the future, along with preserving human culture in the matrix. The machines are curators and conservationists. If all they wanted was biologically generated power there is no logic to using humans and not cows, or brainless blobs of muscle tissue...

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Marodvaso@reddit

I think it's implied that most other large mammals went extinct in the Matrix universe. That's why robots are using humans and not cows or pigs.

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Marodvaso@reddit

And it seems the "blocking the Sun" prediction is going to come true as well in several decades, just without AI.

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Cloud_Barret_Aerith@reddit

I mean, it was just before the 'find out' era. We definitely did fuck around in the late 90's. Exponential growth always comes for you.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Well this decade sure isn't.

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anonymous_matt@reddit

'course we knew. Some of us at least.

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Zergin8r@reddit

We did know, but the rich downplayed everything so they could make easy money now. They don't care about what would could happen in the next 30 years as they will be dead and it won't affect them, and if stuff starts getting bad before then, they have enough money to keep living as they see fit.

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Cloud_Barret_Aerith@reddit

We can't have exponential growth, no way, no how. Russia censors reality in order to brainwash their people into behaving like they want, by just not talking about the truth. Not allowing it. The west censors reality in order to brainwash their people into behaving like they want, by just not talking about the truth. Not allowing it.

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huehuehuehuehuuuu@reddit

Next generations?

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LightGraffiti@reddit

Predicaments not problems. Problems can be solved.

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Crow_Nomad@reddit

Prof Jacobson is one of the honest climate scientists who accepts that humanity is pretty much screwed, and isn't afraid to talk about it. I've watched a couple of his YouTube vids and they are very...enlightening. I found his suggestions for dealing with the doomerism very helpful, as in, just live the best life you can, while you can. It makes sense to me.

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Portalrules123@reddit (OP)

SS: Related to collapse as after a brief dip into cooler but still really warm territory, global sea surface temps are again setting records that haven’t been seen in any prior year. Since oceans absorb most of the excess heat from global warming, this will have a large climatic impact and this is likely one of the factors behind spiking temperatures across the globe right now.

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rematar@reddit

That's more information than what's in the linked xeet.

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Cease-the-means@reddit

Out of interest, where are people getting this blue shaded version? I'm familiar with the climate analyzer graph but this one is much better as a visual image.

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InfinityCent@reddit

Jacobson recreates the graph and posts it on his twitter

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p3n3tr4t0r@reddit

Yep, I mean everyone with an ounce of perspective knew we were done since 2015. I thought it was going to be a little slower than this but hey, let's just enjoy the ride and see how fast capitalism can kill an "intelligent" civilization.

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Comfortable_Air_7037@reddit

Yo is that graph fr? This looks not good. Where is the graph from?

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TheSilentFlame@reddit

so I guess the next question(s) are, how do we survive the inevitable point of no return? how will we grow our crops with constant droughts? how will we combat the next dust bowl? these questions would be satire 10 years ago, at least to the average person.

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Mission-Notice7820@reddit

Good news and bad news. Good news is the solution requires no effort. Bad news is the solution is that we don’t. Welcome to the end.

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JohnConnor7@reddit

That's the neat part...

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Sinistar7510@reddit

It's just El Niño, right? Right? /s

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mayonaise55@reddit

Wellllll yes, but actually no.

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anonymous_matt@reddit

Is? Yes! Just? No!

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Cease-the-means@reddit

Los Hermanos Apocalypticos

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Shoddy-Opportunity55@reddit

Technically yes, but it’s deeper than that. In reality we’re fucked

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tonkatsu2008@reddit

The sad thing is that this is the start of a new baseline. We are never going back to the lower temperature baseline of years past.

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anonymous_matt@reddit

> We are never going back to the lower temperature baseline of years past. Hey now! Don't say never! Just imagine what we could do (fuck up) with geoengineering once we get desperate enough!

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YetiWalks@reddit

I was just thinking this. Looking at the graph you can see some big leaps and once it jumps up to that higher avg it doesn't go back down and instead hovers at that new avg until the next leap.

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Cease-the-means@reddit

I think the best way to describe what is happening is that the sea is no longer moving heat into the deep ocean. Previously the warm surface water has been circulated down into the deep ocean to mix with the cold water. Now that is not happening. The warm water is sitting on the surface, like the way in a hot water tank it stratifies into hot at the top and cold at the bottom with a thin transition layer in between. So after summer it doesn't cool as much and then the next summer it absorbs more heat... The entire mass of the ocean hasn't suddenly heated up this much, the heat is concentrating in the surface layer. Which is the layer that affects air temperature and weather. Which sucks for us..

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fraudthrowaway0987@reddit

Isn’t there some possibility the Earth enters a new ice age? Or did I dream that?

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Cease-the-means@reddit

You may be thinking about the AMOC collapse. There was recent paper about it. If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current that moves warm water from the Caribbean to northern Europe stops, which dumping a load of fresh meltwater into the arctic sea can cause, then northern Europe will experience around -2 degrees cooling per year over 100 years. It's localised but yes it would be like a small ice age. For reference the warming we are experiencing is about +0.2 degrees per year. So the temperatures will plummet rapidly, fucking up every ecosystem. Then when this process is done, warming will catch up to the rest of the world, killing any ecosystems that survived the cooling. In the short term it would seem like a good thing as temperatures stop rising but overall it would seriously suck.

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ComfyElaina@reddit

If there is a massive volcano eruption, then maybe. I dunno about the net human cost though. It's also possible that the cooling will put a false sense of security and pushing for change will be harder.

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Le_Gitzen@reddit

We are in no danger of entering an ice age. Any volcano or nuclear event would only cool the planet for a few decades. The carbon is there virtually forever. As soon as the particles drop out of the sky we’re right back to our 10c trajectory for thousands of years

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Sumnerr@reddit

We are in an ice age, in an interglacial period. The Earth could cool rapidly due to massive volcanic eruptions, but that brings its' own set of problems. Our food sources require sunlight.

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PinkBlah@reddit

who tf is prof eliot? just show me the graph, idgaf about his tweet

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breinbanaan@reddit

Not good. More acidification. Less functioning co2 buffer

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Cloud_Barret_Aerith@reddit

Less effective heatsink

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frodosdream@reddit

One of the most important posts/threads on reddit today; but most people will probably be looking at gaming, sports and porn.

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NoPossibility5220@reddit

This is so ominous. They won’t know it until it hits them right in the face, which will be sooner rather than later.

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Fellsummer@reddit

The land could heat up until everything on it dies and the world would be fine, if the ocean gets too hot everything everywhere dies.

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NukeouT@reddit

We aren’t going to be able to do this forever

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Gambler_001@reddit

Just for reference....this is the equivalent of 7 thermonuclear devices (measured in terajoules) being detonated in the oceans EVERY SECOND. That is more than 600,000 thermonuclear equivalent detonations every day. [**https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/589187-oceans-absorbed-heat-equivalent-to-7-hiroshima/**](https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/589187-oceans-absorbed-heat-equivalent-to-7-hiroshima/)

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Final-Enthusiasm505@reddit

Just an update, it USED to be around +7 Hiros/second. Back when the EEI was around +0.7W/m2. **NOW, it's about +15 Hiros/second.** The "Hiro Count" correlates very closely to the EEI. The EEI has INCREASED from +0.3W/m2 in 2004 to about +1.7W/m2 TODAY. *Most of that increase has been in the last three years as the SOx levels have plummeted, in response to changes in the composition of marine diesel fuels (they took 85% of the sulfur out starting in 2020).* **Here are the TWO main “camps” in Climate Science expressing HOW MUCH “heat energy” they think was added to the Oceans in 2023.** 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data) — Everyone Else 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data) — NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCEI **The DIFFERENCE between these two numbers is SIGNIFICANT. The AMERICAN “estimate” is about -40% LOWER than everyone else.** WHY? From the article “[Oceans break heat records five years in a row. The heat stored in the world’s oceans increased by the greatest margin ever in 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00081-0#ref-CR1).” *“Cheng and his co-authors studied two data sets on ocean heat content: one from the IAP and the other from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States.”* **The IAP data show that the heat stored in the upper 2,000 metres of oceans increased by +15 zettajoules in 2023 compared with that stored in 2022.** This, is an ENORMOUS AMOUNT of energy. Most people have NO CONCEPT of how to VISUALIZE that number in a “relatable” MEANIGFUL WAY. **How to “see” 15(ZJ) worth of ENERGY.** A Zetta joule is a joule (the work it takes to make a watt of power for a second) with 21 zeros behind it. Thats 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules. Unfortunately that number is “unreal” to most people. It’s hard to FEEL what it means. Which is why it is often expressed in terms of HIROS. Which is short for Hiroshima class atomic bombs. In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 5 HIROS per SECOND. **The EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) has increased from +0.5W/m2 in 2010, to +1.7W/m2 in 2024. Basically TRIPLING.** The EEI has TRIPLED since 2010. There is NO QUESTION about that. It’s a FACT. That’s a FLOOD of ENERGY into the Climate System. 90% of it goes into the OCEANS. Global Warming is OCEAN WARMING after all. **SO.** In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 5 HIROS per SECOND. **In 2023 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 15 HIROS per SECOND.** That’s 900 Hiros per minute. 54,000 Hiros per hour. 1,296,000 Hiros per day. **473,040,000 Hiros per year.** The surface area of the global ocean is 139,000,000 square miles. **That’s 3.4 HIROS for EVERY SQUARE MILE of OCEAN in the WORLD last year.** That’s what +15 ZJ means. **If you go back to the 50's it works out to about +99 Hiros of ENERGY per sq. mile of ocean of added HEAT in the last 70 years.** About 14 Billion Hiros worth of ENERGY. **The Chicxulub Impact Event 65mya (aka the "dinosaur killer") is estimated to have ONLY released 10 billion Hiros worth of ENERGY into the Climate System.** It’s easier to viscerally FEEL what a large number MEANS. When you can visualize it against something relatable. Everyone understands what an atomic blast looks like and does. It makes it easier to understand WHY, collapse is coming SOON. We FUCKED UP.

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PNWSocialistSoldier@reddit

I keep wondering if it’s like bumping up against a glass ceiling and this is just part of a temporary plateau either meaning it’ll dip back down into the usual trends or break off into history.

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specialkk77@reddit

Yes this would be awesome if it was a simulation. The fact that it’s our reality is devastating and most people don’t seem to care. Business as usual. It’s 61F here (upstate NY) today. Average people are thrilled. Walking with shorts and short sleeve tops. Like it isn’t the largest red flag in the world that something is not right.

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backmost@reddit

“A man can tell a thousand lies I've learned my lesson well Hope I live to tell The secret I have learned, 'til then It will burn inside of me” -Madonna

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Twisted_Cabbage@reddit

It looks like it never stopped being in record territory for the last 6 months

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UnspeakablePudding@reddit

As a one day temperature record you're absolutely right. We're just about to hit 365 days of consecutive records. The tweet is referencing the absolute record though, as in the ocean surface has never been recorded to be this warm regardless what day of the year the measurement was taken.

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gmuslera@reddit

And the next typical yearly high temp is from mid March to the start of April, so it have time to keep breaking records for some weeks.

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Cold_Meson_06@reddit

Not many news channels or sites talking about this.. I thought they liked when the line goes up.

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BadUncleBernie@reddit

This is why the whales are pissed off.

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StatementBot@reddit

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Portalrules123: --- SS: Related to collapse as after a brief dip into cooler but still really warm territory, global sea surface temps are again setting records that haven’t been seen in any prior year. Since oceans absorb most of the excess heat from global warming, this will have a large climatic impact and this is likely one of the factors behind spiking temperatures across the globe right now. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b1dl7b/prof_eliot_jacobson_eliotjacobson_on_x_global_sea/ksdqw5u/

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