> but we're right.
im 10000% sure it prob exists somewhere somehow, even if its on an underwater sub of billionaires watching spider monkeys battle it out
Can someone eli5 for me? I see the scary graphs. I kinda get statistics. I know 2-3 Sd’s are taught and it is at .9 SD’s or something.
Which is beyond fucked. I am trying to imagine it but I do feel a bit dumb. I want to understand.
Weather events we thought were only theoretical for earth will be hitting us by 2026. We should see our first hypercanes this year too. Whats the next progression from an atmospheric river? Whats the next step after Heat Domes?
lol all of the reports stating how increased energy into our climate systems will exacerbate extreme weather events and how we are now sitting at +1.5C and still increasing faster and faster.
Do you believe the climate reports dont translate into what we see with our weather events? lmao, sources or it'll never happen! what a joke. good luck when you realize we are already in the 6th mass extinction event and we've likely made it worse than anything we've seen in records and ice cores and tree rings. lmao.
I seriously don't doubt the next decade will be anything but absolutely devastating - have ultimately decided I shouldn't have kids (although I would really have loved to)
but honestly, what is the evidence for imminent hypercanes?
Record sea surface and shallow water temps are skyrocketing, we have the equivalent of a arctic BOE happening in Antarctica. We saw a tropical storm go from nothing to a class 5 hurricane within 24 hours and the ocean temps have only gotten worse. Yes i'm making assumptions based off of what we're seeing but it all seems to fall in line together.
Do people think the temps will just increase and the energy imbalance will increase and it wont effect our weather events? Researchers have been clearly saying for decades that these things will make our weather events more extreme. What the hell does everyone think that means??????
Do I know we will have hypercanes this year? No, I cant say with 100% certainty they will.
But
I'd bet a shiny dollar we're guaranteed to see hypercanes before 2026.
This is going pretty close to what some models predicted. Too bad those climate models were to scary to promote to the public lol.
Any chance you could share your code? I have been meaning to start up a side project and this might be a good one to keep running. I usually want to see these graphs but can't find them but for a few sites or here
My code's pretty messy right now. Once I clean it up and make it readable I'll send it to you.
I fully recommend you try and replicate the plots/graphs yourself too though. I didn't fully understand how people like Eliot Jacobson did their calculations until I replicated them myself. It was really helpful and made me understand the data better!
Serious question
Why we compare 2024 event to 1991-2020 or 1982-2011 ?
We should compare them to 1850-1900 and always use the same range.
In 2044 we ll compare to 2011-2040 ?
This tend to mitigate the exponential increase.
I commented this on another thread:
> I can't find the reason for using 1982-2011 explicitly stated anywhere, but this is what I theorize. Daily SST records began in September 1981, meaning 1982 is the first year they have on record with daily data for Jan-Dec. ClimateReanalyzer began in early 2012, so by that point they only had complete records from 1982-2011 to compare against.
You are right though, I don't know why 1991-2020 is being used here. It's pretty deceiving, the situation is far worse than what we're seeing in this graph.
For detailed stats you need detailed records. This is called https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
When you hear "record" about something in such contexts, it has to be relative to a table of existing data. The data is gathered via instruments, complex instruments, more and more so. Few of these technologies and measurement coverage existed centuries ago. If you had a time machine, you could go back and take precises measurements with the same methodology - that could be a funny Cli-Fi story.
It is for PR but also due to my understanding that the field of climate science is scarred with two issues. 1. Conservative science no politics meaning that they think the climate system can take more of a beating that it actually can from CO2 increase, which it can not.
2. The poltical, economic, and social pressures that bear upon climate change due to it being one of the few issues that is known to the public, meaning that PR is done on all levels, even on the level of publishing. The only climate scientists that seem to be on the ball are those that are relatively removed from institutional control (aka why they are all old and semi/completely retired) and use systemic analysis.
What are the leading theories on what is driving all this SST growth? I know about all the normal things that are talked about in this sub, but these temps really started running away suddenly last year and I'm surprised I still haven't seen any papers or articles about what is driving this specific SST growth.
This is NOT a MYSTERY.
[Last year (2023) the Global Ocean absorbed roughly +15 ZJ over the year before (2022).](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/ocean-warming-temperatures-2023-extreme-weather-data)
\+15 Zetta Joules in ONE YEAR!
**A Zetta joule is a joule (the work it takes to make a watt of power for a second) with 21 zeros behind it. Thats 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules.**
Unfortunately that number is "unreal" to most people. It's hard to FEEL what it means.
**Which is why it is often expressed in terms of HIROS. Which is short for Hiroshima class atomic bombs.**
In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 5 HIROS per SECOND.
**The EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) has increased from +0.5W/m2 in 2010, to +1.4W/m2 in 2023. Basically TRIPLING.**
[Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good.](https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-acceleration-el-nino-measuring-stick-looks-good?e=0eed4ccc58) (Nov, 14 2023) James Hansen, , Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy
**In 2023 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 15 HIROS per SECOND.**
That's 900 Hiros per minute.
54,000 Hiros per hour.
1,296,000 Hiros per day.
**473,040,000 Hiros per year.**
The surface area of the global ocean is 139,000,000 square miles.
**That's 3.4 HIROS for EVERY SQUARE MILE of OCEAN in the WORLD last year.**
That's what 15 ZJ means.
**It's easier to viscerally FEEL what a large number MEANS. When you can visualize it against something relatable.**
Everyone understands what an atomic blast looks like and does.
There's nothing ABSTRACT about it.
**Now you have a handle on how much HEAT is building up in the Oceans. Now it MEANS something to you.**
Here's another meme.
**The Chicxilub Impact Event which finished off the dinosaurs 65mya released around TEN BILLION HIROS worth of ENERGY.**
287 ZJ is about 8.5 Billion Hiros.
**We will reach 10 BILLION in 3 to 4 years at this rate.**
Puts what's happening with the Oceans into perspective.
I simultaneously love seeing your content as it's become such a resource of mine and hate that every time I see you here my existential dread increases by ~1 hiro
But, this is still a relative number…it’s sort of meaningless in and of itself. The question is how much of a % increase is that year over year? If the ocean had 1000 ZJ and I add 15 ZJ is that significant? If the ocean has 5 ZJ and I add 15 JZ is that significant? Context matters.
We started keeping records in 1955. Since 1980 we have averaged about 5 ZJ addition per year to ocean heat content. We actually have two different data sets, one suggesting 15 ZJ, and the NOAA suggesting 9 ZJ. NOAA indicated that at the end of 2022 the ocean was at 345 ZJ addition relative to the 1955 average (I.e. if the heat content was the same as what it was in 1955 the change would be “zero”). So if we have now added 15 ZJ we are at 360 ZJ relative to 1955 average, or we added about 4% to the oceans heat content in 2023, relative to the 1955 average.
Another way to comprehend what this scale means, is that if we increased ocean heat content every year like we did in 1955, the change in ocean heat content by 2023 would have been 1,020 ZJ (compared to the 360 ZJ it is).
So, is this 15 ZJ significant increases year over year? In 2014 we were at about a 290 ZJ change from the 1955 average. We have averaged since 2013 to 2023 about 10 ZJ every year over the decade.
My conclusion is that while heat ocean content continues its steep climb from the 1955 base average, the 2023 years addition is not surprising, higher than any other year, but not that much higher than any other year in the last 10 years. There’s no good news here.
What you are doing is shifting the baseline so that you can AVERAGE over a longer time period. Thereby MINIMIZING the SEVERITY of what's happening in front of your eyes.
Classic "Climate Moderate" DENIAL of REALITY. Do you work for NASA/GISS by any chance?
But hey, let's play.
SO.
**In 1955 the OCEAN contained an estimated -150ZJ (measured against a 1950-1980 baseline).**
The world was a COLDER place back in the 50's. The Earth Energy Imbalance was about +0.35W/m2.
Which was HIGHER than it had been in about 150kya. This had "wiped out" 6,000 years of gradual cooling in a SINGLE Century.
**In 2023 the OCEAN contained about +287ZJ (using the ARGO floats we KNOW this number VERY accurately).**
That's an INCREASE of +437ZJ of ENERGY in 68 years.
About +15 BILLION HIROS worth of ENERGY in 68 years.
NOW.
**As you say, in the 1975-2010 time frame the RATE of WARMING was about +0.18C per Decade and the HIRO COUNT was about FIVE HIROS PER SECOND.**
Adding about +5ZJ worth of HEAT to the OCEAN each year.
35years × 5ZJ per year = 175ZJ.
**Between 2010 and 2023 the EEI grew from +0.5W/m2 to 1.40W/m2. This is "beyond dispute".**
Hansen states this, Berkeley Earth states this, NASA\\CERES states this.
There is NO ARGUMENT about the increase in the EEI.
**The RATE of WARMING has JUMPED to +0.49C PER DECADE and the HIRO COUNT to about 15 HIROS per SECOND.**
Since 2010.
Your statement that.
*"the 2023 years addition is not surprising, higher than any other year, but not that much higher than any other year in the last 10 years".*
Is INCREDIBLY MISLEADING.
Since the RATE of WARMING has been CLIMBING CONTINUOUSLY for the last 10 years saying that the rate of warming in 2023 is "not that much higher than any other year in the LAST 10 YEARS" is BULLSHIT.
**The RATE of WARMING has TRIPLED since 2010 and you are "casting doubt" on the SEVERITY of the situation.**
Because that's what MODERATES do now.
Rather than admit that they were WRONG about EVERYTHING.
Whoa whoa whoa, easy there friend. I’m not NASA spook lol. Im just a numbers guy. And I’m definitely not trying to make light of anything, in fact my very conclusion was that this was not good news. Everything you highlighted above simply comes down to understanding rates on a graph! Absolutely, I wasn’t trying to average out the rate of change since 1950, I was trying to put into perspective exactly what 15 ZJ addition really mean, in context. I thought the picture I painted showed that indeed 15 ZJ is a lot, and that viewing it in context since 1955, the last 10 years have been massive for the rate of change in heat content. You and I are agreeing here.
Although I don’t see where you get that the rate has tripled since 2010? Compared to what? Just curious..we are talking about the change in heat content compared to 1955 baseline, and every year since 2010 that change was fairly consistent - the graph is a perfect linear line, so rate of change is equal…I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me - but the change was something like 9 ZJ every year. So about 9 ZJ ever year since 2010, consistently. If 2023 jumped to 15 ZJ that’s a 66% increase, not triple?
A couple of questions for the science side of r/collapse:
\- Do we have reasons to think the red line will follow the yellow in its pattern in the next few months? Like, go up .3º/3 sigmas for the next six months? Or is that the El Niño effect considered, and keeping things high, but not more?
\- How does the math work with hurricanes? Do we have simulations for when they get large enough to, say, survive a crossing of the Atlantic? Do we get Category six if we warm the water enough?
You know on the bright side of seeing temperatures take off like this, I feel very justified in being plagued by crippling existential dread and terror for years because of what we have done to earths systems. What a relief to know I'm not crazy and only witnessing an extinction event that will probably be among earths most severe ever and trapped in a death cult society demanding that we make sure it happens because muh economic growth.
Yea dude it's not like I'm happy about it but it does feel like I'm kind of justified. No I wasn't the problem it WAS actually all of society that was the problem.
The idea that all of humanity would just go along with a convenient lie until it changes the climate is such a ridiculous situation. Summer is coming.
The virus means some interesting things. I'm trying to imagine how our species could adapt to it (this means large chunks of the population dying, like we had with the plague), but since it kills especially the old, it exerts very little selection pressure. The combination of this and PASC and long COVID, kinda means that it will grind us down like long-term evolutionary roadkill. For selection to occur, it would have to affect children more, which is possibly happening, but we don't know yet how bad it is; it could also affect parents somehow, as becoming a bad caregiver would spell doom for kids. On top of this, we have the immune-auto-immune evolution [dilemma](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05349-x) and SARS-CoV-2 is already super-fucky with auto-immune problems, so this capacity is probably at its limit; the final dilemma is: evolve more immunity to pathogens, but at the cost of more auto-immune diseases (or the opposite). So, yeah, we should probably have a global effort to stop SARS-CoV-2. I suppose that if it lasts long enough, isolated human communities could get rid of it.
I might only be a 5'11" completely sane fluffy bunny rabbit but I thought this subreddit was the dedicated one on Reddit? - and maybe the biggest one in the whole world?
Wait until El Niño ends and there is a period of cooling and you have to deal with the media declaring “Is climate change over?”. For too many people it remains a binary rather than continual process.
Me either. But I have no idea what there is for quality data. I assume data has become better with new and more satellites. Be great if there was a 1970 to 2000 mean.
I heard the peak El Nino months are predicted to be January through March this year, so this line is likely to keep going up, or at best (if that's the right word here) plateau pretty soon at or near this off-the-charts high level
As sensational as Jacobson is, I think it's warranted here. It's hard to keep focus on work and some petty squabbles when the future of the entire planet is at stake.
"1991-2020 mean" should immediately scream *moving baseline* to everyone.
I don't expect sea surface temperatures to move as fast as land or overall temperatures, but if overall temps are 2 C over pre industrial, sea temps are likely around 1.3 C over preindustrial.
u/InfinityCent created a better graph that has the real marker from the fiest time they started recordong the global surface temps... somewhere in the 80s.
You don't have to be an expert to see that this is bad, but can anyone with geological or archaeological knowledge put this in context?
For example, how often do rises like this happen? Do we have any data to show what kind of impact that previous rises like this do to the world (i'm aware that the speed of this rise is fairly unprecedented, but other than that)? Or with a rise this fast, do we have any *data* on how much higher it can go?
I have written EXTENSIVELY on this topic for the last 3 years.
The paleoclimate data is very clear now. I incorporate it into my personal climate models and have written a number of articles explaining it. All of these papers discuss the paleoclimate findings and provide links to relevant sources.
THEY are FREE access on Substack. It's my personal PSA.
[The Crisis Report - 42](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-42)
The time has come the Walrus said to talk of many things. In this case, let’s talk about “HEAT”.
[The Crisis Report - 43](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-43)
More evidence is accumulating that our Climate Sensitivity models are off. This is not good news.
[The Crisis Report - 50](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-50)
The Earth’s Climate System - A Short Users Guide. Part 03. Permafrost Melting — The role of permafrost in the Climate System.
I hope that helps.
I've read about the Northwest Passage, but didn't realise it opened so recently. I've also read that we're right at the end of the current Ice Age, but that it's ending far too quickly.
We really don't know what we're in for, do we?
Submission statement: Seeing as we don't have a sticky thread for these sea/surface temps graphs, I thought it was still worth sharing this, as the climate continues to go haywire.
Cant wait to see the effects continue to "surprise" everyone lmao. Our species will learn once enough of us die and suffer. Too bad those are really big numbers.
This is the tiny bit of pleasure i am getting out of it all. I gave up on educating these clows. Now i just sit with a shit eating grin on my face any time a denier or a hopium addict complains about the state of world affairs. Especially if they whine about their children.
Proudly 42 with no fucking children, thank Odin!!
This is what people have talked about for years here. I talk to everyone else and they don't know anything. Talk to deniers. It has been this hot before
According to [ClimateReanalyzer graph of sea surface temperature](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/) ocean temperature should keep going up till March-April, and we are already at the max levels reached last year (that already were in uncharted territory). Records will be broken most days from now on at least for 3-4 months.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/NotACodeMonkeyYet:
---
Submission statement: Seeing as we don't have a sticky thread for these sea/surface temps graphs, I thought it was still worth sharing this, as the climate continues to go haywire.
Not much to discuss, but we can probably say that the high starting point wasn't a big 1/2 day outlier.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1952bt2/another_sea_surface_temperature_graph/khjz7t4/
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