Shortage or no Shortage
Posted by PottedBasilPlant@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 70 comments
I can't tell you how mind numbingly confusing it is trying to navigate this. I'll read on virtually every business newspaper about how the demand for airline pilots is only increasing with no supply in sight. Then I come here and everyone says its a marketing scheme put out by the flight schools and you're lucky if you even land a CFI position.
I've been seriously considering aviation since before starting my uni degree, I'm now one year away from graduating with a job offer in Finance lined up and I'm doing one last scan on this industry to see if jumping ship is still viable but no matter where I look I can't seem to get a straight answer.
Is it really the best time to enter this rewarding industry with high job satisfaction and ample free time or am I better off sticking to the track I'm on and trying to fly as a hobby.
Swimming-Ad2568@reddit
Hear me out. In my opinion. The best time to join flight school IS NOT when there’s a shortage and airlines are hiring anyone with a pulse and 1500 hours. If you’re just joining flight school, you’re not getting hired anytime soon anyway, so worrying about the hiring market when you’re just a student is kinda pointless.
The only people that should be concerned about the hiring market are those getting ready to become a CFI and will be looking for instructor jobs.
Things will likely look completely different by the time you get 250 hours (Looking for a CFI job) and will change throughout that journey as well regardless of how fast you get there.
My advice to people, especially my civilian counterparts, is to get your ratings and hours safely and proficiently then go from there. Also, have a backup plan if flying doesn’t workout or until it works out and you’ll be fine. That should be for any career you choose to chase.
When hiring is slow, you’re more likely to have a consistent CFI and you’ll essentially be able to catch up to those who started before you and even the playing field. If anything you’ll be more competitive for jobs if your flying is more recent since those “ahead” of you hit a brick wall and can’t really fly without breaking the bank.
Shinsf@reddit
Hey I'm a 4800 tt 3600 of it is turbine former spirit pilot who is having trouble getting work.
The industry sucks sometimes
Swimming-Ad2568@reddit
Surely you’ll at least have a spot with your name on it at Breeze soon?
geosky1903@reddit
Dang, I was hoping WN would hire as many of you guys as possible.
Shinsf@reddit
They are, unfortunately when you get a few thousand guys with far more pic time than you you get filtered out for a little.
NonVideBunt@reddit
Keep your head up. Spirit pilots are being hired left and right at all the airlines. Just keep the press on.
butterpig@reddit
There’s a shortage of very qualified pilots. There is no shortage of pilots who want to become very qualified pilots. I can’t speak of the market when you eventually finish flight school but it is very bad for low time pilots right now
flyfallridesail417@reddit
Post spirit I don’t think there’s even any shortage of very qualified pilots. Plenty of regional CAs with apps in. Majors aren’t having any trouble filling classes and are mostly doing so with people with degrees and turbine pic again. Fractionals & corporate departments not having nearly the trouble keeping people around that they were a few years ago. Remaining regionals decently staffed, able to fill upgrade classes with qualified FOs.
No_Excitement455@reddit
I wonder what percentage of military get hired on their first try ?
Especially if they have a few thousand flight hours in the military.
Swimming-Ad2568@reddit
Very high for those on heavy aircraft and flying with aircrews. Fighters can be a little harder when the market is being picky. My buddy who flies A-10s and is a weapons officer, didn’t have the easiest time getting hired.
JT-Av8or@reddit
100% in my experience.
Anthem00@reddit
Pretty high.
flyfallridesail417@reddit
My airline still hires as many military as we can get our hands on but there just aren’t enough to go around. Make up 15-25% of most new hire classes. Most of the fixed wing mil guys I fly with had no gap from active duty to airline indoc. Many went to class on separation leave. Rotary wing & v22 guys are different, usually takes a bit at the regionals to build fixed wing turbine before they get picked up.
run264fun@reddit
I came across this listing looking for a pilot with extensive mountain and back country experience. Like 2,000tt tailwheel logged in the mountains. And I’m not talking about flying over the Rockies at 16,000ft.
My first thought was, who the hell has this level of experience?
salty_greek@reddit
Every Alaska ppl:-)
Traditional-You-6470@reddit
My brother did both. He started a finance role in 2019. Picked up flying in 2021. Flew on the weekends, kept his job. He has license, instrument, commercial, multi-engine. He also does well at his job. I think this is the way to go if you want to figure out if you want to do this as a hobby or go all-in. If you do end up getting a CFI gig, they do not pay well.
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
Big appeal behind aviation for me was the QOL, 80 hour weeks compared to 80 hour months for similar comp was kind of an obvious choice
WingedWildcat@reddit
80 hour months is a little bit of an oversimplification. You may get paid for 80 hours but you will be gone from home much more than that and being that you are not in the US, your work rules and pay are significantly worse than what most of the people in this sub are referencing.
The__Stig_@reddit
These days, jobs do exist, but they’re very competitive. There is definitely no shortage. To prove that to yourself, go and look up the Faa stats on certificates issued over the course of last year. Way out of whack with how many jobs do in fact exist.
BugHistorical3@reddit
Isn't there also a correction that occurs when a lot of those end up giving up?
The__Stig_@reddit
Yes. But here’s the thing. It’s always been a very competitive career, except for Covid. It’s never in history been an easy way to make a living.
It’s a passion career, not a safe one. So if it’s your passion, do it! Best decision you’ll never make. But if you’re only in it because it’s a job, you’re in the wrong place.
BugHistorical3@reddit
Yeah that's true. For me the most worrying thing is just having a job on the side that can pay my food and roof and flight school bills. The economy tanking doesn't help with that but I can't really see myself doing anything else besides flying a plane.
EezyBake@reddit
Get that cushy job in finance and fly on the weekend. If you want to fly, fly.
Having a whole other career makes an aviation that much easier
Fit_Midnight_3927@reddit
I wanted to get into finance and blew my chance. Im not saying I wasted time spending my schooling years on flying, but I dont have a job or will be anywhere near having a job soon im sure. Only cause the market is bad for pilots trying to find work.
Who are you planning to go work for if you dont mind. Im curious. Before I started this I read a lot of people saying you will end up in sellong insurance or cold calling people. I find that hard to believe, but I know it's a thing. Did you go to Wharton.
Genuinely interested.
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
I'm based in Denmark, so no sadly not Wharton. I go to Copenhagen Business School and have landed an offer at a Nordic Infrastructure PE fund.
Fit_Midnight_3927@reddit
That's really cool. I hope it works out and you end up enjoying it. I'm across the pond. So your piloting market maybe different. I feel like if you work your way up the ladder you can pretty much go where ever you want. You can also become a pilot with money you save.
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
Yeah thanks. Though honestly a big appeal behind aviation for me was the lifestyle and quality of life. Part of me feels like I put in all this effort to be a well paid slave. 80 hour work weeks, 60 on a slow one, always taking work home with me. Being a pilot looks so much more attractive once you've been shoehorned into this line.
A hard pivot now before I get sucked in and comfortable in my golden cage would be a lot more bearable I think
Fit_Midnight_3927@reddit
I get it. I will say that is one reason why I chased the pilot career. It just hasn't paved out as I thought. I was a commercial diver and made good money before. Just got tired of the lifestyle. My plan now is to make money diving and keeping trying for a pilot job and hope it works out. Also save as much as possible for retirement.
Lot to do. I think that is the way to do it. Set yourself up really nicely for retirement. Sucks that it feels forever away, but time goes by fast. I thought id never say that. 32 and hoping for the best hasnt paid off much. It will all work out.
AtariFerrariNH@reddit
If "ample free time" is one of your reasons for picking a career, aviation is not for you
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
How can you not see that as a massive quality of life perk? Especially when compared to the brutal hours in finance
UnfortunateSnort12@reddit
Shortage is over. We are in reasonable decent time hiring. It’s not as bad as say 2008-2013 or so.
Perfect_Big_5907@reddit
Yes, we need experienced airline pilots just not what we saw in 2022. Always cyclical. So when airlines were hiring anyone with a pulse 4 years ago word got out that aviation is where its at. We are now seeing what that caused. Thousands of people got into flight schools etc. And the normal route is to flight instruct. Now we have a glut of flight instructors that can't get a job because well, we have too many flight instructors. It will even out in the near future. If you are in the finance track you are used to things being black and white. Aviation is chaos. You can be underqualified, over qualified or missed the hiring window by 1 day . All about needs not really experience . Right now the airlines are hiring very qualified pilots not entry level ones so much. That will change we just don't know when.
No_Excitement455@reddit
I wonder what percentage of military pilots get hired right out of the military since they have a few thousand hours PIC.
Perfect_Big_5907@reddit
As long as they meet minimums no problem going right to a major. Airlines prefer them as their training is so regulated and documented. Back when i was in every single pilot got hired by Delta except 1 that went Northwest. Navy.
iheartrms@reddit
While I'm an ATP and fly occasionally for a part 135 operation, my main career is in cybersecurity. We have the same problem over there. The news media are talking about a cybersecurity skills gap, millions of open positions, etc. But just like in aviation, it's the universities and certificate mills pushing this idea. In reality, there are too many candidates. They are suckering in a lot of people. And if you try to tell people this they will accuse you of being too negative or even of gatekeeping!
pagingjacrispy@reddit
If I were in your position I’d work in finance and start saving money while pursuing your PPL. If you love it, then go all in. But you might as well work for a bit so you can save and pay for your training.
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
Only reason I even considered the full pivot as of rn was because I inherited just enough to pay for an integrated ATPL program.
prex10@reddit
ATPL? It would help to mention you're in Europe.
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
Currently in Denmark, that's kind of up in the air though. Long term girlfriend is Canadian and we've spoken about me trying to pursue aviation there instead. Either way I would look into an integrated intensive program connected to some airline
Apprehensive_Cost937@reddit
r/flyingeurope, my friend.
Everyone here assumes you're in the USA, unless you write Europe 10 times in bold, and even then it's not guaranteed.
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
Yeah I figured the information here would be more relevant to Canada, as that's where I would intend on pursuing aviation. No Canada specific sub afaik
GeorgiaPilot172@reddit
Do you have the right to work in Canada?
PottedBasilPlant@reddit (OP)
I'm proposing soon (independent of aviation) and through marriage I get Permanent Residency and a right to work in Canada.
prex10@reddit
Yeah, almost everything you have read, and mentioned in your posts concerns the US.
Crusoebear@reddit
“virtually every business newspaper”
These are the source of your confusion. They are often written by lazy types who simply regurgitate outdated information at best - or act as stenographers for other disingenuous types trying to sell you something (rather than actual journalists) at worst.
Ignore these for better health & less numbing of your mind.
TSwiftIcedTea@reddit
There is no shortage today. There was a shortage just a few years ago. That shortage resulted in historic levels of pilot training that has now resulted in a drastic oversupply of qualified pilots. On top of that, the mandatory retirement wave just peaked and is now on the downturn. As we move into the future, the supply of pilots will continue to rise and the demand for pilots will continue to fall.
The one saving grace is industry growth which could necessitate more hiring despite the headwinds. Both United and American, along with their regional partners, have substantial growth plans, but some argue those growth plans are based on the expectation that they will take market share from other airlines as opposed to adding total capacity to the market.
Industry consolidation is also on the table right now which could harm hiring expectations in the near term. Best of luck to you whatever you decide.
Guysmiley777@reddit
There is no shortage of low time commercial pilots or flight instructors. In fact there currently exists a massive oversupply of pilots with that level of experience.
It's not that nobody is hiring for those positions, it's that from 2022 through 2025 there was a very large increase in new low time pilots which means there is a massive amount of competition for those low time jobs.
run264fun@reddit
I’ve seen far more CFIs walk in my school than people looking for discovery flights.
Handag@reddit
It’s top heavy right now. The top 10% of applicants more or less have their choice of where they want to go. The rest are mosh pitting to get in the door.
I’d encourage everyone who heart is truly in it for the long haul to put your blinders on and keep at it. Ignore the 25 year old GRWM instagram influencers at United and Delta who hit the jackpot with timing. That’s not what the industry is like.
I started flying 2006 and hit the airline job market in 2008. It was brutal. Quite a few left the industry, those who stayed had do what they had to do to keep the dream alive but are reaping the rewards right now. This industry has its peaks and valleys, you have to ride out the valleys to enjoy the peaks.
ltcterry@reddit
There are 50,000 new Commercial Pilots from 2023-2025. Airlines expect to retire 40,000 pilots. Over the next 20 years.
2023 and 2024 saw 11,000+ new instructors. With 13,000+ more in 2025. Typically there’s room for about 4,000 new CFI hires a year.
There is a literally record setting surplus of pilots. Last year there were 20,000+ new Commercial Pilots and less than 8,000 ATPs.
Not promising numbers, but certainly proof there is no “shortage.”
flyfallridesail417@reddit
No shortage anywhere now. The business papers exist to pump whatever stocks the oligarchy wants pumped today. By the time they’re reporting specific trends in any given industry outside of finance it is old news and often incorrect - certainly already “priced in.”
The people that benefited most from the shortage started training in the mid-late 2010s before the shortage was big news, stuck with it through COVID when things looked terrible, then were in the right position to take advantage of the acute shortage of 2022-24 that made national headlines.
The people who reacted early to the shortage news got through training and got CFI jobs, and if they were quick maybe got on at a regional, where they are building qualifications toward getting hired by the major airlines in the coming years.
Those who were just a bit slower got qualified to be a cfi or banner tow pilot or skydiver driver right at the same moment as everyone else. The best, best-connected, most ambitious/willing to uproot their lives to chase work, and luckiest have found work and are doing tough jobs for low pay in hopes they can get one of the coveted regional slots. Everyone else is bitching on Reddit.
Use some of that inheritance money to get your PPL. If you find that you love it enough to endure years of hard work and low pay for an uncertain future, great. Otherwise you just got yourself a fun and expensive new hobby to use up the rest of that inheritance money!
aerohk@reddit
Boomer pilots are retiring - true. They need to be replaced - true. That’s where the shortage is at, not the lack of 1500hrs kids.
NonVideBunt@reddit
There’s a shortage of qualified pilots. There’s no shortage of people trying to become qualified pilots.
trampled93@reddit
FAA pilot statistics explained - record pilot production and declining airline hiring opportunity
JAMONLEE@reddit
There is a shortage of experienced pilots. Sorry being a CFI for a couple years doesn’t currently meet that definition
prex10@reddit
There was brief few years in the mid 2010s when regional airlines couldn't get enough pilots. Lo and behold they raised wages and were flooded with applications. There was also maybe a year where legacies wanted to back fill covid early buy outs and hired as hard as they ever will. Those days are gone
There never has been anything close to a shortage in terms of people applying to United, Delta or American. And there never will be.
The current pipeline has more pipeline than there are jobs and that will remain for the foreseeable future.
Ok-Money2811@reddit
You mean the shortage that was next month when I started flying 22 years ago….
i_own_5_cats@reddit
industry swings. regional hiring can dry up fast while big airlines still whine about “shortage”. finance job locked in is hard to beat though
Pilot-Imperialis@reddit
That info is old. There’s a surplus of pilots.
TheTangoFox@reddit
For the right amount of money, pilots would come out of the woodwork to fly, including me.
It's always a compensation/QOL game.
Neither_Extension895@reddit
>this. I'll read on virtually every business newspaper about how the demand for airline pilots is only increasing with no supply in sight.
Where are you reading this? Are you looking at some sort of This Day In History feed from 2022?
Wafer420@reddit
Asking if there's a shortage means that there's no shortage. Otherwise you'd know without having to ask. 💀
Several-Village5814@reddit
lol so wrong
Fancy_o_lucas@reddit
Can you afford to go another 4-ish years without making a meaningful income because even if you’re hired at ATP mins it’ll be a while before you see an aviation job that pays your rent.
Long story short, the low time market has no shortage of applicants right now.
junebug172@reddit
At least you’re not paying for your jobs or signing contracts.
0ffkilter@reddit
Both can be true, and it's the same in multiple fields.
The bottom line for most industries (including tech, my regular field) is that there's a fair bit of demand for senior/experienced folks and an oversupply of new grad/low time/junior people.
To get to the point you can fly for an airline you need well over a thousand hours. But you can only really get those hours via a CFI or other rarer jobs.
To get the point of being a senior engineer, you need years of experience as a junior.
That's where the market for many jobs is at. Companies only want to hire experience, and a ton of people without much at all trying to gain it.
Spirit_of_No_Face@reddit
The options aren’t mutually exclusive, most people at my school do both concurrently, cuz flight school ain’t gonna pay for itself…
EliteEthos@reddit
There is no shortage.
cptnpiccard@reddit
Put it this way: when I got my first CFI job after having the rating for less than a month, I didn't come here and make a post about it.
What you're seeing is all the people who are not getting it venting, which is understandable of course. But it's not all bleak.
Also, you are years away from ever having to apply to an aviation job. And aviation is super fickle. It ebbs and flows very fast. So what you're seeing today is not what you'll see months and years from now.
rFlyingTower@reddit
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
I can't tell you how mind numbingly confusing it is trying to navigate this. I'll read on virtually every business newspaper about how the demand for airline pilots is only increasing with no supply in sight. Then I come here and everyone says its a marketing scheme put out by the flight schools and you're lucky if you even land a CFI position.
I've been seriously considering aviation since before starting my uni degree, I'm now one year away from graduating with a job offer in Finance lined up and I'm doing one last scan on this industry to see if jumping ship is still viable but no matter where I look I can't seem to get a straight answer.
Is it really the best time to enter this rewarding industry with high job satisfaction and ample free time or am I better off sticking to the track I'm on and trying to fly as a hobby.
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