Think it's hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says
Posted by switchsk8r@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 107 comments
Posted by switchsk8r@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 107 comments
click-monster@reddit
Who remembers when the media used to talk about the Paris Agreement and how 1.5ºC was the hard limit beyond which the planet suffered severe irreversible effects? Since we're hitting it now not in 2050, it's seems to have been tossed down the memory hole.
savantalicious@reddit
I just started reading The Ministry of the Future this evening. I’m at Chapter 15.
I can’t describe how emotional it’s making me. This is already happening… temp was 52 in parts of India in 2024. That’s 126 F.
jbond23@reddit
TMOF is accurate for the first 1/3, entertaining for the second 1/3 and just silly hopium after that.
savantalicious@reddit
Ok now I’m looking forward to the rest of the book. That was heavy shit.
morphemass@reddit
I studied environmental science in university and all the discussions, agreements, commitments, conventions lead me to believe the world was managing climate change. The last year I've done a lot of research and realised it's been theatre to keep the populace feeling safe. I'm deeply ashamed of myself for having been so completely hoodwinked for 30 years.
ElKayakista@reddit
Damn, I had a similar experience, except when I was in school my professors didn't sugar coat shit. They are the ones who showed me how absolutely nothing will improve regardless of the abundance and quality of data. The environmental folks tend to be quite optimistic until they aren't.
morphemass@reddit
It was 30 years ago I was in uni. There was a lot of optimism since the political landscape was much saner and the worst impacts seemed in the distant future. I was optimistic until a couple of years ago and due to mental health issues had thought what I was seeing based on current research and data absolutely had to be mostly in my mind. I've been a lot better recently partly by simply accepting that my pessimism has a genuine basis in reality. So yeah, optimistic until the reality stares you in the face.
click-monster@reddit
I'd say the fact you chose to study environmental science (and kept on researching) shows how good a person you are 🫶
BrightCandle@reddit
When the Kyoto agreement fell apart that was the world signing up to death via Climate change. Paris was an attempt to limit the damage but then once again the Americans wouldn't sign up to it and everyone else was lying about their intentions, as it has always been.
click-monster@reddit
Agreed. This is from late 2024 afaik but you get the picture
Masterventure@reddit
Remember how the Paris agreement was in 2015? That’s barely 10 years ago, we went over that limit in a decade instead of century.
ThrowinA2shade@reddit
I feel like that’s the plan. Billionaires know the only chance they and their prosperity have to survive is a massive human die off to stop pumping ghg…this the upcoming famines from climate change and strait Hormuz conflict. Cleaner way to remove mass populations without nuclear bomb pollution.
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
wouldn't be surprised at all... either this, or no plan just pursue money despite the destruction
No_Foundation16@reddit
Yup they will crawl into their luxury underground bunkers and party 24/7 while the outside world dies in agony, violence and starvation.
Then emerge as the absolute rulers of the dead world. Their data centers and AI will run their kingdoms for them.
metalreflectslime@reddit
We may not be alive 5 years from now if a Super El Niño destroys crops this Summer 2026.
If we survive a Super El Niño this Summer 2026, we have to worry about potentially a BOE in September 2026.
jbond23@reddit
BOE = first Arctic Sea Ice, Jaxa Minimum of < 1m km^2 in late summer, early autumn. This is hugely dependent on late summer weather. The very next day the arctic will start freezing again. The current record low is 2012 3.41m km^2. Since then the minimums have been around ~4m. It's not an extended period of ice arctic through the summer. That might come MUCH later. The first BOE won't cause global famines. Food production is dependent on many many other factors.
It's very likely a BOE will happen in the next 100 years. It's quite likely in 50 years, it's fairly unlikely in the next 10. It's very unlikely in 2026.
jbond23@reddit
Really tired of this obsession with BOE and AMOC collapse in this forum. Can you tell?
Twisted_Fate@reddit
BOE is needed for the masses to wake up. Something that no sane individual be able to deny.
jbond23@reddit
Maybe. With photographs. But I can't say anyone really takes much interest in the records. "Just another record, right?"
What if we get a record low minimum Arctic Ice extent this year of well below the 2012 record, say 3m km^2, why should anyone not directly following it, sit up and take any more notice?
jbond23@reddit
There's not generally thought to be any connection between ENSO (El-Nino, La-Nina oscillation) and Arctic Ice extent. If there is anything it's more like both are affected by climate change and increasing temperatures generally.
See this recent discussion. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.msg440196.html#msg440196
Geckomoe1002@reddit
BOE?
metalreflectslime@reddit
Blue Ocean Event.
AutoModerator@reddit
Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is a term used to describe a phenomenon related to climate change and the Artic ocean, where it has become ice-free or nearly ice-free, which could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system. This term has been used by scientists and researchers to describe the potential environmental and societal consequences of a rapidly melting Arctic, including sea-level rise, changes in ocean currents, and impacts on marine ecosystems.
When will a BOE happen?
Scientists predict that the Arctic could experience a BOE within the next few decades if current rates of ice loss continue. When a BOE does occur, it is likely to have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system, including changes to ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise.
Has a BOE ever occurred?
A BOE in the Arctic has not yet occurred in modern times. However, there has been a significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, and the Arctic sea ice cover has been reaching record lows during the summer months. This suggests that a BOE may be a possibility in the future if current trends of sea ice decline continue.
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Distinguishedflyer@reddit
thank God I had no money for retirement anyway.
M00ncar@reddit
Dude chill out
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
Somehow i feel like both of you at the same time
pisht@reddit
The duality of man
PedaniusDioscorides@reddit
They're not wrong though. But chilling out sounds like the right idea.
forchinski@reddit
Enjoying the heat? You'll love these next 5 years!
m4m249saw@reddit
And don't forget the next 10 years after that then the next 15 years after that
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
Yup they make this point. "It's important to note that (1.5) is not kind of a cliff edge that we're going to fall off," said report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the U.K. Meteorological Office.
If you can survive in 10 years, you might not in 11 years.
SandlerCel@reddit
Yep, it's always good to remember that 1.5c is meaningless and made up by an economist
fedfuzz1970@reddit
Anything to blunt the reality that 1.5 C is being exceeded. Extend the period to dilute the news.
SandlerCel@reddit
To clarify, I mean that 1.5c isn't some magical number that if we are below everything is good.
We are already fucked and everything is getting even worse lol.
m4m249saw@reddit
It pisses me off how people don't believe it I remember as a kid I watching the Discovery Channel, they talk about it, their predictions were right except the timing it turns out it's happening all a lot faster than expected. I wish I had an answer but in a world where money is the one and only true God I think we're all f*
justlurkin7@reddit
It's maddening! I rememeber reading about greenhouse effect in both my biology and geography books in high school in the fucking 90's!
Sertalin@reddit
It was in the news and on the cover of magazines already in the late eighties. I remember an unusual warm month of March in 1990 and I was thinking: is this a result of climate change? People were concerned. But ... Well... Nothing changed and then the exciting decade of the 90's came....
fedfuzz1970@reddit
Those warnings were only heeded by the fossil fuel industry. They immediately applied the cigarette industry response: deny, deflect, and misinform.
HommeMusical@reddit
I remember arguing with my uncle about it in the 70s; he turned me on to the Greenhouse Effect.
Sorry, Bill, you were totally right. Kind of glad you didn't live to see how right you were.
Sapient_Cephalopod@reddit
I've said this before, but people who caught on to overshoot really early on fascinate me. Imagine living in the 70s and thinking about this stuff. With so little information. Truly ahead of their time
TernarySquare0123@reddit
I sometimes get a little frustrated when people act like any of this is new information.
It tells me that they are paying attention for the first time in their lives and that they have decades of catching up to do. They often unwittingly go through the entire set of denier talking points until they're caught upt.
fedfuzz1970@reddit
Can't wait to see reactions to full El Nino. They'll be running around screaming, "Why didn't someone warn us? How come we didn't know."
ApesAPoppin237@reddit
It's been a lost cause for a long time, unfortunately.
BrightCandle@reddit
Its a problem we know has been measured as happening since the 1970s. We understood theoretically it was happening back in the 1800s. All the powers have done since those findings and warnings is peddle disinformation and burn ever increasing amounts of CO2 emitting fuels, despite us having cheaper and less polluting options available this entire time.
Old_timey_brain@reddit
Makes me think of a logarithmic scale.
C4rva@reddit
Rest in peace, Richard (U/TuneGlum7903) Your works feel remarkably prescient.
JosBosmans@reddit
Richard Crim wasn't even around anymore to see Tramp fuck up the strait of Hormuz, or the bubbbbling AI bullshit. May he rest in peace indeed.
C4rva@reddit
He wrote a bit about the possibility of this upcoming El Niño.
ThrowinA2shade@reddit
Did he die? Or just gone from reddit?
C4rva@reddit
He died a few month ago.
Distinguishedflyer@reddit
from Covid.
savantalicious@reddit
u/TuneGlum7903 just giving myself this link
fuossball101@reddit
Well sure with all the AI data centers going up and the amount of energy generated, id imagine we will see some warming
El3ktroHexe@reddit
Here in our country, not even the hospitals have air conditioning. Well, that’s one way to solve the problem of the large elderly population.
BrightCandle@reddit
Wont just be the elderly and ill, will also just kill everyone, heat stroke and worse from exceeding wet bulb temperatures impacts every last human on the planet.
BoringRedHorse@reddit
Won't they be surprised when they find out their government taking care of them in their old age was all a lie.
ConfusedMaverick@reddit
It has been "taking care" of them in the Sicilian sense
Sertalin@reddit
I thought: that must be Germany. Then I saw your username and I think I am probably right
jonnieggg@reddit
Been hearing about the end of the world for the past fifty years. Still here.
Emotional_Dot5038@reddit
its wild. i looked at the NASA chart and we only had 1,2 degrees in 2023. if were at approximately 1,5 by now, weve warmed by 0,2-0,3 in only three years. if it continues at this rate, which i really really hope it wont, most of us are probably going to be dead by 2040.
No_Ear_1633@reddit
And after 5 years of broken records, people will say "I don't see a problem. The record gets broken every year, nothing's changing"
BTRCguy@reddit
We're breaking old heat records by multiple degrees right now. Don't know what "smashing them" would look like, not sure I want to know.
But pretty sure I will know...
AccumulatedFilth@reddit
Maybe if we pay more taxes, nature will be more mild.
It hasn't worked for the past 20 years, but you never know.
rmscomm@reddit
We have had multiple warnings from climate events, pandemics and even social unrest and the infrastructure design to a simple off world prime colony all could have and should have been addressed in my opinion. We live in constant threat of potential extinction level events and never adjust the systems for recurrences or a backup at the very least.
RoyalZeal@reddit
Enjoy yourselves, it's later than you think...
tje210@reddit
Oh damn, I better find some pink
ThrowinA2shade@reddit
What’s pink, some kind of street name for drugs or something ?
SeVenMadRaBBits@reddit
Pretty sure they meant punani but there's also this possibility:
"Pink": Street slang used for the highly lethal synthetic opioid U-47700.
HommeMusical@reddit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdMWHB6Kz3A
This is a comedy song, and yet it makes me both happy and sad.
ScopionSniper@reddit
The sadest part is the countries mostly responsible for climate change, will be the least affected by its worse consequences until much later.
Scooter_McAwesome@reddit
Pfffft that’s what they said 5 years ago, and 5 years before that too
TanteJu5@reddit
You're right. I've been reading that since I found this sub in 2018.
BeardedGlass@reddit
And look where we are now. People are suffering.
Have you seen the temps around Europe? The deaths from extreme heatwave in south Asia?
We're getting above 30ºC (90ºF) temps here in Japan even though it's only May.
Climate has been changing too fast. Our winters is getting short, our summers getting longer and hotter and extreme year after year.
TanteJu5@reddit
For starters, South Asia has a documented centuries long history of brutal, lethal pre monsoon heat just as Japan has experienced unusually hot Mays in its historical record. So, highlighting current anomalies but forgetting the severe extremes of the past is a recency bias.
The planet's climate system has always been characterized by shifting periods of warming and cooling. So, it's true that the instrumental record does show a warming trend but framing it as fundamentally apocalyptic is doom talk.
Framing every hot week, regional tragedy or seasonal shift as a sign of unprecedented doom misrepresents the broader reality.
roehnin@reddit
Oh please. You need to read better sources of information.
We are FAR outside any of the normal shifting periods of the climate system.
The hockey stick is real, and it's our fault, and you people who deny it are destroying our ability to fix it.
TanteJu5@reddit
There is a distinction between accepting the scientific reality of climate change and surrendering to performative doomerism. Acknowledging that human activity is warming the planet, shifting weather patterns and requiring global adaptation is following the data. However, the pervasive narrative that humanity is on the precipice of imminent, total extinction is the problem I have with this sub. Here, nuanced discussions about renewable energy milestones, successful environmental legislation or human adaptation are entirely drowned out by worst case scenarios.
The world’s leading scientific authorities such as the IPCC don't predict planetary cessation in a half decade. Instead, they project a spectrum of graduated, complex challenges spread out over decades and centuries
BeardedGlass@reddit
You're arguing against a position I never took. Go back and read my post.
I said people are suffering now. Dying now. When did that become "doomer extinction talk"? You invented an argument because you can't answer the one I made.
Yes, South Asia has always had brutal heat. And that same heat is now 45 times more likely to occur because of climate change (peer-reviewed, World Weather Attribution, 2024). Same region. Same season. Categorically different event. You're using the existence of past heat to dismiss something that barely happens naturally without humans.
The IPCC you mentioned says 1.5°C hits in the early 2030s, some damage is already irreversible, and the warming is unprecedented in 2 thousand years. Their conclusion is to act now. But you're using their credibility to argue the opposite of what they're saying.
You haven't disputed a single thing I raised.
What number would it take to change your mind?
TanteJu5@reddit
Your reply was to a comment intended for r/roehnin. I always stay on topic and never shy away from speaking my mind.
Your claim that a specific South Asian heatwave is precisely 45 times more likely due to climate change relies on a specific and sometimes debated area called attribution science. These studies often generate headlines sometimes before undergoing the prolonged, rigorous peer review process traditional to long term climate physics. To get to a number like 45 times researchers use computer models to simulate 2 versions of Earth (1) with human emissions and (2) hypothetical counterfactual world without them.
These models are useful but they inherently carry degrees of uncertainty when applied to localized, short term extreme weather events. The atmospheric dynamics of the Indian subcontinent are complex, driven by chaotic, natural variables like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and shifting monsoon troughs. Claiming that a specific heatwave is a categorically different event because a computer model generated a probability ratio projects a level of exact, mathematical certainty that masks the fluid, unpredictable nature of regional weather. It turns a meteorological reality into a dramatic/doom talking point.
Regarding the IPCC, you have to understand the context of the 1.5°C marker. This figure is frequently treated in public discourse as a definitive point of no return. However, it's an arbitrary, politically negotiated target established during the Paris Agreement to give nations a unified goal not a physical or biological threshold where the planet suddenly breaks. Surpassing 1.5°C in the early 2030s doesnt mean the end of the world. I means a marginal, incremental increase in the costs and efforts required for adaptation. When the IPCC mentions irreversible damage, it's referring to slow moving, long term processes such as deep ocean warming or gradual glacial retreat that unfold over centuries, not the short term (5-10 years) societal collapse.
I am into collapse but I am not a doomer. Honestly, this sub needs to chill out with the doom posting and start being a bit more objective. Otherwise, it’s just going to turn into a toxic echo chamber.
BeardedGlass@reddit
See, notice what you didn't dispute. That it's warming, that attribution science is valid and useful, and that 1.5°C is coming.
You're now arguing about the precision of the damage estimates, rather than whether the damage is real.
Also worth noting is that uncertainty in attribution science cuts both ways. If the models might be off, they might be underestimating. See, that's an argument for more caution and not less.
We clearly read the same data and disagree on urgency. That's fine.
But you opened talking about recency bias and now you're going with “the models have margins of error.” Which is basically a long way to travel… only to arrive at basically the same place.
TanteJu5@reddit
Yes, model uncertainty cuts both ways but using this as a justification for doom, reactionary caution may lead to dangerous policy missteps. True caution requires balancing the projected risks of climate change against the highly predictable risks of dismantling the economic engines that fund human adaptation and resilience.
Shifting from recency bias to model margins of error isn't moving the goalposts. They both point to the exact same problem which is blowing the immediate threat way out of proportion. Recency bias explains why the media treats yesterday's heatwave like an unprecedented apocalypse. On the flip side, pointing out model uncertainty shows why we shouldn't treat the stats around that heatwave as absolute fact. Both points drive home the same bottom line which is the underlying data is real but weaponizing it to stir up panic is just bad logic.
click-monster@reddit
"reactionary caution may lead to dangerous policy missteps" 😳😳😳
Petition to change the sub name to "performative doomerist reactionary caution"
roehnin@reddit
Yes, and it's getting worse every year
Whooptidooh@reddit
Yeah, I know.
Not looking forward to it either.
SadExercises420@reddit
It’s been so cold and rainy most of this spring. Have had the heat on still some days. Just waiting for the flip to endless 100 degree humid days with maybe some fire smoke as a cherry on top.
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
We must be in a similar place. i guess we're getting the little cool air in the northern hemisphere while the rest burns despite it still technically being spring.
BeardedGlass@reddit
Oh please send some of that coolness our way here in Asia.
We're getting cooked here along with Europe. Our spring has been going above 30ºC (90ºF) and there's just so much heat with high humidity, because it's now the rainy season.
Our seasons has been getting wonky year after year...
I do very much prefer colder days because it's much easier to bundle up. It's cozier to warm ourselves up. Rather than the heat that you can't escape even if you go naked, open all the windows and doors, etc.
The warmer months have been growing yearly. The colder months here have been getting milder and shortening. It's warming. Fast.
Distinguishedflyer@reddit
Heat's pouring out of the ocean, don't expect relief anytime soon if ever.
SadExercises420@reddit
Yeah I’m i upstate ny, been a cold year so far. Farmers had their crops ruined by a late freeze. Been wondering if we’re going to stay in this cool bubble all summer. Probably not but we had a cool dreary summer in 2021 so it’s not like it doesn’t happen even during a El Niño.
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
Yup, so many tomato seedlings frozen and withered from our yard! Like everything else, we can only wait and see how the summer goes.
SadExercises420@reddit
I keep reminding myself it’s better than endless heat waves starting in march
ideknem0ar@reddit
Central Vermont (hi, neighbor!) and I'm thinking that gardening this year is going to be real interesting with these 10-20 degree swings. Last year it turned hot and dry on a dime in late June after a normal(ish) May. All my sap totes are full from the rain gutters, so I'm ready for a reintensifying drought, if that's in the cards for this summer.
BoringRedHorse@reddit
That means the data centres will need to guzzle more drinking water to stay cool! (We could use many other things as coolant too, but using existing drinking water infrastructure is just cheaper).
hollyglaser@reddit
We knew this in 1975. I never thought people would do stupid
FOSSChemEPirate88@reddit
This can all be solved with fission, fusion (its within reach), and renewables.
Of course, the families that hold the majority of the worlds mineral oil/natural gas reserves would lose an incalculable amount of wealth and power.
But aside from that, it's not like its some impossible engineering challenge 🤷♂️🫤
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
I hope so... but can someone more educated than me chime in about how current feedback loops will heat things up even if we stop emitting? wouldn't we need carbon capture? But, we should still try to get to net 0 cause things might level out eventually rather than runaway.
FOSSChemEPirate88@reddit
The simplest carbon capture is just planting trees, and the biosphere sequesters carbon naturally anyways. If we hit net zero, it'll be a good start. One step at a time.
Level_32_Mage@reddit
Best I can offer is 7 steps backwards.
FOSSChemEPirate88@reddit
If you're referring to the comments on fission, Thorium fission is inherently safe (meltdown is impossible based on physics) and has some of the highest EROEI values there are, far better than renewables, even with the advances in solar, especially when you include amortization.
Big oil/fossil fuels has always been against fission. There are safe gen 4 fission design options that could never go Chernobyl/Fukushima/Three Mile Island (all gen 2 reactors).
The sort of major solutions we need require an open mind with a focus on the fundamentals of their underlying physics. If your 7 steps backwards comment is referring to something else, please let me know.
Level_32_Mage@reddit
I was referring to your comment that "If we can hit net zero, it'll be a good start. One step at a time."
It seems like in many ways capitalism isn't terribly concerned about taking those steps forward, when taking steps back seem to be more profitable. But you're response was great, I do appreciate it.
Bandits101@reddit
Do you know how long the “biosphere takes to naturally sequester carbon”. The biosphere naturally emits carbon as well and there was an equilibrium until humans began emitting excess and began destroying natural sinks.
“Planting trees”…they burn and require fresh water, right now the planet is losing more trees than growth replaces. The Amazon, so called lungs of the Earth will soon become an emitter instead of a sequester of carbon, perhaps it is already.
The planet is losing ice at about 300 billion tons annually, sea level rise is faster than coral can grow and sequester carbon. The loss of albedo due to melting glaciers and Arctic is exposing more land and ice to warming.
“Net zero” is a feel good saying but if it was achieved this minute, nothing would change. Earth will do its thing regardless, because the excess GHG’s approaching 430 PPM of CO2 is there until the natural carbon cycle removes it.
Earth’s sensitivity to excess GHG’s is only roughly known. It’s known what warmth to expect from excess CO2 but not when combined with humans destroying life in soil, acidifying oceans and depleting ozone.
The problem was that people were claiming that warming and climate change could be reversed if we stopped emitting. That was the biggest lie, because we started using solar panels, wind mills and electric cars.
All the while populations continued to grow and Jevons Paradox kicked in and emissions increased, because like any addict we told ourselves we can quit when we really want.
We’ll quit alright, when Earth shuts us down permanently.
Good_Captain_8665@reddit
Yep, and unfortunately, the people that understand this have long been tuned out by most people and by the time enough people wake up from that lie, the planet is gonna be on fire.
How hard will the warming be this summer be if there are less total airline flights, shipping routes, and a total reduction in sulfur emissions due to the oil crisis?
It’s gotten so bad now that, cutting emissions might very well start the chain reaction to a run off completely independent of human emissions. And I think we’re just speeding running resource extraction for as long as it’s possible but when most of the cities start slow roasting people, maybe then we can all agree that the science from 50 years ago was, in fact, a real risk.
Unfortunately, nothings gonna change because of that anyway.
Good_Captain_8665@reddit
Absolutely delusional to think that we will go carbon negative in the future when we can’t even get governments to stop fossil fuels subsidies right now. For every single one of those dollars going to oil companies, humanity will have to pay atleast a thousand times more to equal out the carbon in the future. The worst plan in every way but it still gets talked about all the time because of the cope it provides. The same cope that prevents people from actually doing what needs to be done now.
FOSSChemEPirate88@reddit
Getting to net zero is a good first step. Thorium fission is inherently safe (meltdown is impossible based on physics) and has some of the highest EROEI values there are.
Carbon sequestration via carbon capture at emission points, AFAIK, is generally less effective than what you get via burying (or using in the economy) fast growing pine stands in anoxic conditions, i.e. in deep lakes, caves, reservoirs.
If your only solution is to wait for everyone to die for things to get better, I'm not interested, and frankly I think it's absurdist and destructive thinking, bordering on the sort of content I'd expect from some big oil bot/PR firm propaganda posting.
Suikeran@reddit
BBQ
voidsong@reddit
This doesn't even sound like it factor's in AMOC's imminent collapse.
I give that a year or two, then it's full on bizzaro world.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/switchsk8r:
statement:
This is a recent article that summarizes where we're headed climate-wise using sources like the UN, WMO, and UKMO. Basically, it's going to get really hot and will only continue to get hotter and more unpredictable which, as we know, will lead to all kinds of feedback loops like forest fires and drought in the Amazon Rain Forest.
Some Quotes:
The World Meteorological Organization also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon...
The projections by the U.N. climate agency and the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office said there's a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher compared to pre-industrial times.
There's a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will shoot past the 1.5 degree threshold and an 86% chance that one of those years will smash the record for Earth's hottest year set in 2024
"Every kind of 0.1 of a degree has more and more severe impact."
An entire year or more above the 1.5 degree mark "means a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot/wet/dry that it exceeds anything we've experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated..."
"This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires."
Interestingly:
The report calls for even warmer and unusually dry conditions in the Amazon basin... Africa's Sahel area, which has been extra dry, is likely to get more than normal rain and that could lead to flooding...
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ttafdy/think_its_hot_now_the_next_five_years_will_smash/op14hkw/
switchsk8r@reddit (OP)
statement:
This is a recent article that summarizes where we're headed climate-wise using sources like the UN, WMO, and UKMO. Basically, it's going to get really hot and will only continue to get hotter and more unpredictable which, as we know, will lead to all kinds of feedback loops like forest fires and drought in the Amazon Rain Forest.
The World Meteorological Organization also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon...
There's a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will shoot past the 1.5 degree threshold and an 86% chance that one of those years will smash the record for Earth's hottest year set in 2024
"Every kind of 0.1 of a degree has more and more severe impact."
An entire year or more above the 1.5 degree mark "means a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot/wet/dry that it exceeds anything we've experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated..."