Shocking temperature predictions, the weaponization of hunger, Ebola expands in the Congo, planetary population rises unchecked, escalation in Lebanon, and AMR accelerates through a warming world.

Last Week in Collapse: May 24-30, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 231st weekly newsletter. The May 17-23, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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The WMO forecasts that the second half of the 2020s will be hotter than earlier predictions, and that we could see a year, by the end of 2030, that is 1.9 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. They estimate with an 86% chance, that earth will experience its hottest year (so far) in the same time period…and a 75% chance that all the five years from 2026-2030 inclusive will exceed 1.5 °C. The 29-page report summarizes the last five years of global temperature change, and makes projections for the next 10 years of weather.

“Arctic temperatures over the next five extended winters (November-March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020, an anomaly more than three and half times that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period….Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2026-2030 suggest wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon….Near-surface temperatures in 2025 were warmer than the long-term average almost everywhere over land with particularly large warm anomalies in North America, North Africa, Europe and parts of Asia…..The last three years, 2023-2025, are the warmest years on record….The chance of the five-year mean for 2026-2030 being higher than the last five-year mean is 91%....After a stable period since the strong decline observed during the 2000s, the AMOC is predicted to decline at a rate similar to climate projections. However, confidence in this forecast is low….The Arctic Oscillation has recently been close to neutral due to both high and low pressure in the winter season in the Arctic (Figure 24). The calibrated probability of above average for the next five years is 70%...” -excerpts from the WMO report

A heat dome hit Western Europe, having spread from North Africa. At least seven died in France as a result, and four in the UK. New temperature records were set across the continent, with London hitting a record daily minimum, and 35 °C (95 °F) daytime temps at Heathrow; and again in the following day. 36.1 °C in Paris. Part of Portugal over 39 °C, Luxembourg hit a new May high (33.6 °C), and Switzerland’s highest peak broke 0 °C. Europe is the fastest warming continent. The western Mediterranean Sea also pushed temps over 4 °C higher than usual in some locations. More frequent heat waves will result in more heat deaths, and it’s still spring…

Abnormally hot temperatures also stretched from Pakistan to Saudi Arabia. Oman had a 36 °C night. Parts of India got into the mid 40s Celsius. Scores of Chinese weather stations broke their May minimums on Tuesday & Wednesday, while parts of China saw their seasonal heavy rains starting a week or two earlier than normal. New monthly records were also set across Japan….and the two Koreas. And the capital of the Marshall Islands felt its hottest night in history, 29 °C. And some Caribbean islands felt record minimums, for the month, or all-time.

Somalia is still enduring a merciless Drought. Three rainy seasons have failed to materialize, farmers have lost their entire livestock herds, and two million Somalis are on the edge of famine. The situation is further compounded by fuel price increases, massive aid cuts, al-Shabaab, and inflation from the Iran War.

A satellite analysis of U.S.-Israeli strikes on March 7, 2026, against Iran found the event to be a “major emission event” that released 29,800 metric tons of SO2 (from burning oil, mostly), similar to a volcanic eruption. The study also says that “oil droplets, soot, and other combustion-related pollutants mixed with rainfall, producing dark ‘black rain’ with potentially corrosive characteristics.”

Predictions](https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/2059289141079159110) of a Super El Niño continue rising, with projections for average sea surface temperatures in part of the Pacific Ocean forecast at 3.0-3.5 °C warmer than usual, for this October-November. Some daily records for SST are already being made. Its effects are beginning to be felt in Canada and the U.S. Furthermore, SSTs are 4 °C higher than average off the coast of Peru…

In a moment of slightly good news, scientists are walking back the worst-case climate scenario, “RCP 8.5,” which had been talked about for over a decade and threatened temperature increases of 4.3-4.8 °C by 2100, the “RCP 4.5” scenario. Now the experts think that 2.8 °C is the most likely increase.

The 2027 Texas water plan expects total water demand to rise by about 6% through 2080, while annual water supply will fall 10%. Pew research indicates that most Americans believe countries will not do enough to mitigate climate change…but the March 2026 survey found that only 48% of Americans believe our planet is warming “mostly because of human activity.” 22% believe it’s mostly natural patterns, 17% are not sure, and 12% still believe “there is no solid evidence.”

Arctic Circle temperatures passed 30 °C in parts of Russia. Research indicates that the Arctic Ocean passed a “chemical tipping point” back in 2009, when melting sea ice hit a threshold beyond which nitrate died off in large quantities, permanently reducing the plankton population numbers in the region—and affecting many other creatures up the food chain. The study concludes, “Arctic sea ice loss is generally considered to be irreversible under continued warming based on models with realistic atmospheric CO2 emission scenarios. Given that the system has switched from light limitation to N limitation, even if the sea ice loss is reversed temporarily due to factors such as Arctic climate oscillations, it is unlikely to have an immediate impact on NPP {Net Primary Production} and BD {benthic denitrification—the process through which bacteria convert reactive nitrogen into nitrogen gas}.”

A study on a “cold blob” in the north Atlantic is cooling—a signal that the AMOC is weakening. “Our analysis of this “cold blob” and of ERA5 reanalysis data strongly suggest that this is not just a surface phenomenon but a deep‐reaching loss of ocean heat content, and that it cannot be explained by increasing surface heat loss but requires declining or weakened lateral heat transport. Surface heat loss appears to respond as a negative feedback to heat content changes: periods of increasing heat content coincide with periods of large surface heat loss….Our analysis supports the interpretation of the observed “cold blob” as a sign of a weakening AMOC.”

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The AI bubble is swelling, and data centers seem to be the only sure bets in a data-centric world. Investors are aware that the value of the AI infrastructure—computer processors, land, sprawling data centers & their associated power plants—is perhaps worth more money than the profits that AI is helping to generate. Legions of people using free AI services (have you ever paid for Premium AI yet?) are also taking profit from the infrastructure without yet contributing to AI corporations’ profits. A website tracking data center locations in the United States has also been launched. Other voices on the side of Big Tech argue that many opponents are reflexively catastrophizing over the (AI) data center boom, part of a so-called “Busybody Economy” propped up by other moneyed influence peddlers.

A study published in The Lancet last week concludes that “climate change is likely to accelerate the dissemination of AMR, particularly for zoonotic diseases….By 2100, the emergence of ARGs {antimicrobial resistance genes} is projected to be further intensified by warming.” The quantity of ARGs in Salmonella, the bacteria studied in depth here, increased by 38% from 1940-2023, and their research determined that “variability in ARGs follows a non-linear quadratic response to temperature and precipitation.”

The United Kingdom (pop: 70M) is stumbling into a multifaceted food crisis, says a group of nine experts, and it’s because of effects from the Iran War, inflation, and climate change. Some people are even blaming El Nino in advance for an economy expected to slump later this year.

Some scientists say that earth has entered a “negative demographic phase.” Meaning we have bypassed earth’s natural carrying capacity (some 2.5 billion people) and are now living on short-term resources which cannot be renewed in time. They expect the current trend of population growth to top off at around 12B near 2060 or 2070, with hard corrections to follow. The study, from about two months ago, says this negative demographic phase began around 1950, when earth’s population was 2.5B. Today the population of humans on earth is approximately 8.3 billion.

The WHO confirmed a doomy truth: the spread of Ebola in the DRC is moving faster than efforts to contain it. Yet they continue to say that the risk to the international community is low. Suspected cases bypassed 900, and suspected Ebola deaths now exceed 220. Conditions at the local IDP camps are squalid and cramped, a perfect ground zero for the worsening Ebola pandemic. The CFR/death rate in the DRC outbreak is 30-50% at the moment. Kenya’s High Court blocked the government from “from establishing, operationalizing, facilitating, approving or permitting the establishment and/or operation of any Ebola exposure, quarantine, isolation or treatment facility in Kenya.”

As the world focuses its attention on Ebola, the Hormuz closure, or whatever demands their personal lives confront, COVID is getting long forgotten, as is Long COVID. Even though countries are still grappling with Long COVID disabilities; Canada estimates 4% of the country has Long COVID. Some health experts estimate the number of real Long COVID cases is double what is reported in the United States, at over 5% of the total population.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to increase energy costs for the UK by about 13% in the coming 12 months. Even a reopening now would take 4+ months to bring back the ship transits to 80% of the 2025 figures. The price or oil per barrel actually fell to one-month lows of $96 last week, amid hopes and rumors that the Iran War was nearing its end. This visualizer helps make sense of the blockade, the pipeline routes, national waters, and the impacts on planting & harvest seasons.

While the wealthier countries are able to buy pricy oil & gas to keep their lights on, poorer countries, like Bangladesh, are experiencing rolling blackouts. Vietnam and the Philippines are beginning to ration or limit energy use. In other places, like India, electricity is going to those families who can afford it. The price of diesel is still rising, and the blockade may still be in its early stages; the worst is yet to come. Some airlines are cutting flights, and most are seeing reduced demand. And the fertilizer market is less flexible and forgiving than the oil market. U.S. tariffs and the Iran War are also undermining the stability of the global economic system.

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Half-hearted negotiations between Iran and the U.S. may be making progress—but threats and attacks from Iran and the U.S. both endanger a lasting agreement. The specter of Houthi forces in Yemen closing the Bab-el-Mandeb also buttresses Iran’s position, if the Houthi rebels were to exercise the option. Iran has also floated the idea of striking oil wells across the Middle East. And President Trump also threatened Oman when the country suggested it might also charge tolls if Iran were allowed to do so.

The U.S. is pulling back some cooperation from NATO and scaling back its aircraft commitments. The Iran War is being cited as an alleged reason why U.S. arms shipments to Taiwan may be delayed. And Cuba, increasingly out of fuel, still has high morale amid American pressure on Cuba’s economic affairs. War gaming for Cuba is being planned for a range of scenarios. The U.S. also declared two Brazilian drug gangs to be international terror organizations. And the death toll from U.S. strikes on Caribbean vessels rose to 199.

A mysterious fire at a Kenyan girls’ dorm killed 16. Reports emerged of forced conscription, door-by-door, of men in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, amid fears that another Civil War is in its early stages; meanwhile, Sudan’s army was said to have recaptured land from the RSF rebels near their border with Ethiopia. Al-Qaeda affiliates killed 30+ in central Mali on Thursday.

Protests, austerity measures, and rising living costs continue plaguing Bolivia, several weeks into broad anti-government protests. Mexico’s senate passed a constitutional amendment (still needs state ratification, but it will probably get it) to empower the government to annul an election for alleged “illicit financing, propaganda, the systematic ⁠dissemination of misinformation, digital manipulation, and ⁠the intervention of foreign governments ⁠or agencies.”

A suicide bombing in Pakistan killed 23+ people, attributed to Balochistan separatists. Cambodia instituted a military draft for most men 18-25 years old. North Korea tested two missile technologies last week: a mobile rocket-artillery system like HIMARS, and an allegedly AI–powered mobile cruise-missile launching system—some fear North Korea is modernizing its military tech for a future war/deterrence, while others are concerned that the hermetic totalitarian state intends to beef up production for sale to Russia.

China’s surveillance state is growing by leaps and bounds with the increasing integration of AI into all levels of surveillance. Cameras are becoming proactive and interactive; footage is more easily interpreted by cutting-edge software, and anomalous events (such as crowds, traffic jams, suspicious movements/interactions) are more easily identified. The human is getting pushed out-of-the-loop…and what remains in the big black box is not strictly limited to China. The U.S. is building its own data-heavy spying infrastructure to amplify ~~Big Brother’s~~ the Algorithm’s power, and the tech giants may share/sell their surveillance tech with countries around the world…

After the Israel-Lebanon “ceasefire” fell through, Israeli forces pounded southern Lebanon in a large airstrike on Tuesday, killing at least 31. Israel’s PM promised to “increase the blows, to increase the intensity” in the coming weeks, as the IDF’s operations intensify against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces—and the large number of civilians trapped in the middle. Israel has declared southern Lebanon to be a “combat zone” and struck more buildings on Thursday, killing another 14.

In Gaza, food is increasingly weaponized, and the force of some 20,000 international peacekeepers has yet to materialize. The land Palestinians live on in Gaza is also expected to shrink even more. The Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu initially agreed in October 2025 to pull back IDF forces so that they controlled “only” 53% of Gaza; in recent months, this 53 has become 60%, and now the PM declared that Israel will expand its control to 70% of Gaza. Israeli strikes killed the top military guy of Hamas in Gaza on Wednesday, along with his family.

A few kilometers from the Ukraine-Romania border, a Russian drone hit a Romanian apartment building, injuring two. NATO again reaffirmed its willingness to “defend every inch” of its member states’ territory, though the incident fell short of a more active open response. Romania and Poland are both trying to position themselves as big-time drone manufacturers. Zelenskyy is warning of a “massive” attack forming from Russia; Putin aims to escalate in Kyiv to bolster his sagging poll numbers. The UK estimates that about 500,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives now, fighting a pointless War against Ukraine.

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Things to watch for next week include:

↠ Colombia is voting for a new President today, amid the highest levels of political violence in years. Their leftist candidate is leading in the polls over a wealthy right-winger, plus a dozen other candidates. If nobody secures 50%, then a run-off election between the top two will follow on June 21.

Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-People in India are living through Hell, if this cross-posted thread from r/India is representative of what it’s like to endure daytime temps of 48 °C (118 °F).....in May.

-We need to make peace with our mortality. This self-post crowdsources some philosophical questions about making peace with death in a Collapsing world. More interesting is this thread from a member of r/Collapse who’s been diagnosed with a terminal illness, and will probably not live another 12 months, and is looking for some bucket list items to experience before the end.

-Regulars on the subreddit are generally not preparing for their retirement, if the comments on this post are representative of the subreddit as a whole. Not surprising, considering that about half of United States adults have basically no retirement savings whatsoever after decades of work. When this economy collapses, it’s going to take hundreds of millions of people down with it.

-Humans may still be living in the best of times. This post from r/dataisbeautiful about global poverty, child mortality, democracy, literacy, and more challenges narratives about how bad the present age is. Or it might just be a good before-picture that we can compare 2050 to when we want to show how far we will have collapsed by mid-century.

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