With the pilot pipeline flooding and mainline upgrades stalled, do you think regional FO/CA pay rates will actually go down in the next contract cycle?
Posted by Firm_Feeling_910@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 14 comments
Curious what the group thinks here. Over the last few years, regional pay went through the roof due to ALPA contracts and SkyWest matching it pushed FO rates well above where they were pre-shortage. Because there were not enough pilots, regionals had to compete. But the landscape feels like it's shifting. The supply of qualified applicants seems to be outpacing open seats.
So my question is when the next round of contracts comes up, do you think management has real leverage to push pay rates back down, freeze progression, or weaken scope? Or has the industry shifted and the old "accept low pay or get left behind" era is actually gone for good?
Interested to hear from current regional guys, union reps, or anyone who lived through a previous contract cycle where rates regressed. Is this a real risk or just management FUD?
Several-Village5814@reddit
Doubt. But the captain pay goofiness is going away. Legit why pay FOs CA pay for no reason ??
Sleep_Holiday@reddit
Envoy FOs will cry about having to upgrade before jumping ship to delta to keep their hourly rate the same… womp womp.
reidmrdotcom@reddit
I don’t remember where it was from, but I’m pretty sure I’ve watched folks in company and/or union leadership explicitly say that the union had the upper hand in the last negotiating cycle but that it will change eventually back to the company having the power.
Cycles are planned and accounted for. Some unions explicitly try to get contractual items that are harder to negotiate away as well as soft quality of life things that are harder to get rid of if the airline goes through bankruptcy.
I don’t know how that will look like specifically for pay, but I’d guess that there will be les progress for unions. And actually considering those American regional pay bumps are expiring, I predict that the average regional pay will be going down.
Gabriel_Owners@reddit
Mainline upgrades stalled? What does that even mean? It sounds like you have no idea what you're talking about.
My airline posted 133 captain positions just last month alone.
Baseline hourly rates won't be going down. But the FO incentives at some of these regionals definitely will.
Firm_Feeling_910@reddit (OP)
People upgrading from the regionals to the mainline. Not people upgrading at the majors from FO to Captain.
Sleep_Holiday@reddit
Yeah that’s not what that means
Firm_Feeling_910@reddit (OP)
What would be the better way to ask the question?
KCPilot17@reddit
Legacies are still at record hiring rates. It's not 2022, but still hiring thousands per year.
mitch_kramer@reddit
Think it'll be hard for airlines to justify that. The cost of living has gotten out of control and these pay rates have been around for a bit now. It would be one thing if the airlines were struggling to make money but most of them are making tons of money right now.
arnoldinio@reddit
SkyWest contract ends this year so guess we’ll see.
BigBadPanda@reddit
It’s not a contract. It’s a Mormon Blood Oath, protected by the Student Council
bureaucrat37@reddit
Real short answer: that’s not how contract negotiations work. Slightly longer answer: unless a company is in bankruptcy they can not force a Union to accept a pay cut.
Busy-Examination8821@reddit
No, but I wouldn’t expect a raise anytime soon.
rFlyingTower@reddit
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
Curious what the group thinks here. Over the last few years, regional pay went through the roof due to ALPA contracts and SkyWest matching it pushed FO rates well above where they were pre-shortage. Because there were not enough pilots, regionals had to compete. But the landscape feels like it's shifting. The supply of qualified applicants seems to be outpacing open seats.
So my question is when the next round of contracts comes up, do you think management has real leverage to push pay rates back down, freeze progression, or weaken scope? Or has the industry shifted and the old "accept low pay or get left behind" era is actually gone for good?
Interested to hear from current regional guys, union reps, or anyone who lived through a previous contract cycle where rates regressed. Is this a real risk or just management FUD?
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