With the pilot pipeline flooding and mainline upgrades stalled, do you think regional FO/CA pay rates will actually go down in the next contract cycle?

Posted by Firm_Feeling_910@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 14 comments

Curious what the group thinks here. Over the last few years, regional pay went through the roof due to ALPA contracts and SkyWest matching it pushed FO rates well above where they were pre-shortage. Because there were not enough pilots, regionals had to compete. But the landscape feels like it's shifting. The supply of qualified applicants seems to be outpacing open seats.

So my question is when the next round of contracts comes up, do you think management has real leverage to push pay rates back down, freeze progression, or weaken scope? Or has the industry shifted and the old "accept low pay or get left behind" era is actually gone for good?

Interested to hear from current regional guys, union reps, or anyone who lived through a previous contract cycle where rates regressed. Is this a real risk or just management FUD?