How much can the Luce depreciate?

Posted by Complex210@reddit | askcarguys | View on Reddit | 22 comments

The Ferrari Luce is debuting at $640,000. We've seen ultra luxury ($100k+) electric Mercedes depreciate by over 50% within 2 years (EQS), sometimes even more.

Realistically, where does this thing land within a couple years?

If its around 250k like the Lucid Air Sapphire (which is much faster), would you consider it?

Does it need to get closer to $150k where a fully loaded Plaid would be?

Or is it down at the $85k range?

[-]

1995LexusLS400@reddit

It can depreciate to $0. It won't, but it can. No one can say how much it will depreciate in 2 years.

[-]

Complex210@reddit (OP)

Obviously, I'm asking for speculation.

[-]

EVE_Burner_Account@reddit

You can get taycans for like $50k, why would I ever consider the Italian Prius knockoff?

[-]

machaus99@reddit

The only real market comparison is the Rolls Royce Spectre which isn't depreciating that badly.

[-]

Ferrari is not a mass-market brand. There won't be thousands of Luces hitting the used car lots once the lease ends or Hertz decides to resell their fleet of Ferraris. The plan is to manufacture a few hundred each year - and that's the global figure, most of which will go to China and Europe. This model is clearly not targeted at the North American market - they have the Amalfi, 849 Testarossa & Purosangue for that.
So let's assume they may sell a 100 Luce each year in NA.
A fair share of those will never go to the secondary market as they are bought by collectors planning on it as a long-term bet. A few more will probably be wrecked, stolen, re-exported, vandalised, etc. So there may be a dozen used cars available for sale at most which is quite a tight supply compared to the models you mention.

That said history shows the 400, 456, 575 - models that kind of filled the same role of a big Ferrari built for comfort - also had terrible long-term value retention. So demand won't be tremendous either unless the car earns legendary status as a meme. But 2 years is a very short time frame - it'll probably take 5-10 years for the car to hit sub-$100k value.

[-]

boomhower1820@reddit

It’s going to be interesting to see. Even heavily depreciated it’s still going to have Ferrari repair bills. I’ll be surprised if they build more than 500/year. I think the rarity will keep values from completely and totally plummeting. There wont be many looking to buy them but there also wont be many available.

[-]

Complex210@reddit (OP)

True but its an EV so it will certainly be the most reliable Ferrari ever built.

Personally, I think some rich dude is going to be forced to buy this to get access to an F80 or something, he'll give it to his wife, and it will be the best car she's ever had. Force this thing on rich non-car people and you could find a market.

[-]

boomhower1820@reddit

Agreed it’s likely going to be more reliable and less finicky that other models but I’ll be interested to see how it works out. So far their hybrid batteries have been astonishingly extensive. Laferrari $400k for battery replacement. These will be built in much larger numbers so it’s not going to be as crazy but still be interesting to see.

They claim they aren’t going to make these a purchase requirement for halo cars.

[-]

SailingSpark@reddit

Also, ferrari artificially limits how many cars they can build, so there is always a high demand, even for used ones.

[-]

ApprehensiveWash7969@reddit

640k!? Really!? If anyone is taking bets I say it will be worth $300k within 3 years. And less than 150k withing 5 years.

[-]

Complex210@reddit (OP)

Average EV depreciation can already near 45% after 3 years, which would be $288,000. I imagine this would be worse.

[-]

PolybiusChampion@reddit

You interested in a performance car, or a badge?

[-]

FrankSlaten@reddit

I'd say the best comparison is the porsche taycan. Not a perfect metric but it does kind of show how luxury performance ev depreciation may work here.

Overall though I don't think we can know as others have said

[-]

Gunk_Olgidar@reddit

90%

[-]

Complex210@reddit (OP)

At $64k, I'd definitely consider it.

[-]

TunakTun633@reddit

I don’t think anyone can answer this confidently because it’s a new type of Ferrari.

But to get a sense of context, look at the cheapest Ferraris you can buy today. They’re ~$70-100K. Maybe the Luce goes lower by nature of being a reviled EV sedan; maybe it doesn’t essentially as a result of inflation.

That’s not going to make it a good buy, mind you. It’ll have quite expensive parts for a $100K car. Imagine if you have to replace the motor…

[-]

jrileyy229@reddit

It's not going to go that low in just two years

[-]

TunakTun633@reddit

No, it won’t. Didn’t read the post body, which was stupid. Only cogent reply I can give OP is that I’m not buying a $250K Luce either.

[-]

jrileyy229@reddit

Nobody can answer that because nobody knows how Ferrari is going to roll these things out.

If they're only going to build by order, then those people are going to be committed to it probably through the warranty period and there won't be many ordered.

If they've already committed to building say a thousand of them, then they're going to be heavily discounted before they even get to the showroom.... And we have no idea where that supply vs demand is going to land

[-]

Total-Improvement535@reddit

six hundred and forty thousand dollars??????