Almost half a million Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
Posted by F0urLeafCl0ver@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 72 comments
Posted by F0urLeafCl0ver@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 72 comments
imunfair@reddit
Seems a bit high to me, although the actual number really doesn't matter - what matters is that Ukraine is losing the same amount or more, which they are. As long as that's true it's basically impossible for this war to be anything but a foregone conclusion.
callmesnake13@reddit
What gives you the idea that Ukraine is losing the same amount or more?
imunfair@reddit
Recruitment versus army size, with their reserves basically being extinct at this point. The tens of thousands of bodies Russia hands back to them in publicly tracked and verified numbers, and that doesn't count those vaporized by the countless bombs the Russian side is using. The maps that have had some rather devastating strategic positions for Ukraine over the past two years or so - repeatedly being surrounded and hammered to hell by standoff weapons because they refuse to withdraw to preserve manpower.
There was someone who counted all the glide bombs dropped when they attacked Pokrovsk, and it was a huge number softening up the area before they assaulted it. Russia has basically been using small squad tactics where they bomb an area to hell and then go clean up any stragglers with fast guys on bikes - not a recipe for any sort of substantial loss of life on the attacking side.
The first year went pretty poorly for Russia, so during that period they likely lost more men than Ukraine, but it's been a few bad years since then for Ukraine to make up for and pass those losses.
gerbal100@reddit
Those small squads on bikes are infiltration units, not occupation units. And they are annihilated by drones as fast as they are deployed to the front.
imunfair@reddit
Ah that explains all the videos of them strolling up with satchel charges and tossing them into Ukrainian bunkers.
Yes which is why the Ukrainians are pushing back the opportunistic gains that Russia never properly secured in places like Zap Oblast. A lot of Ukrainians still died turning those regions into grey zone with those small squads though.
TheFriendshipMachine@reddit
There are also plenty of videos of them looking into the camera with terror a few moments before the Ukrainian drone hits them.. The fast attack method you're describing is not so immune to losses as you think. As fast and maneuverable as a squad on bikes might be, the drones hunting them are much more so.
gerbal100@reddit
It sounds like you only consume (and sincerely believe) Russian propaganda.
imunfair@reddit
Nothing I said sounds remotely like Russian propaganda, in fact the Russians are far more doomer about the recent territorial losses. But you wouldn't know that since you only read Ukrainian propaganda apparently.
voodoohotdog@reddit
The kremlin told them.
Opening_Pizza@reddit
Remember how the Taliban defeated NATO 6 months before NATO decided it could defeat Russia using only Ukrainians? I present you with the Fell for it Again Award. Congratulations.
TheBigOof96@reddit
How many NATO soldiers died in a confrontation that killed half a million russians?
Azzagtot@reddit
Not enoguh
TheBigOof96@reddit
I'll give you that, from a mathematical standpoint 0:500 000 does indeed seem like not enough. NATO must be sending titans to this war they're apparently fighting.
crusadertank@reddit
Checking the numbers of confirmed losses from both sides by things like obituaries you get a similar number of both sides.
Its not perfect but based on the numbers we have access to then it shows Russian and Ukrainian being rougly equal
esjb11@reddit
OSINT numbers are similar.
Withermaster4@reddit
Even if Ukraine is losing the same amount or more, that doesn't mean that the war is a forgone conclusion. The countries are in different situations. Ukraine has no other choice but to fight, their options are fight or die. That changes who fights and how they do it.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Now add to that desertions. Ukrainians stopped publishing desertion figures in October 2025, but back then the figure was 289k and rising by 20k a month. Now add to that initial disparity in population between Ukraine and Russia. Now add to that huge number of people immigrating from Ukraine...
Nope, this is the propaganda that literally killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. And more and more Ukrainians realize that this is a lie. The actual choice is "fight AND die" or hide at home to avoid conscription officers.
imunfair@reddit
The government has no choice, the people absolutely do, important to understand that distinction when you try to claim that a population is going to fight to extinction. That's why you see the Ukrainian government forcibly kidnapping people day in and day out, it's no longer a government by the people for the people, it's morphed into a feudal system where they people exist to serve the government, and that isn't sustainable.
Withermaster4@reddit
You can downvote me but what is your explanation for why Ukraine has held off Russia with a smaller less equiped army? Military theorists call this death ground. You make your enemy fight much much harsher when you put them on death ground.
Azzagtot@reddit
Because since 2014 Ukrainian army started to get trained by NATO. Ukraine's Cold War stockpiles was single to only Russi, as well as it's military.
They was reformed in 8 years prior to war, had an ongoing civil war on east.
Withermaster4@reddit
Not to be that guy but wouldn't most of those soldiers who received that training be long dead by now?
Drones changed the game for both, but Russia should have an advantage with drones. They have better access to Iran and China which are two of the best drone producers. They have more GDP/war chest to buy more drones.
It seems to me that morale matters a great deal more compared to these
imunfair@reddit
A combination of drones making mass-transit difficult and fog of war nonexistent, along with Putin's hesitance to actually treat it as a full fledged war. Russia has the men to force a quick end to the conflict but then you get casualty numbers that look like WW2, and not the couple hundred thousand over four years that we're seeing here.
Ukraine's slow deterioration is playing into Russia's hands, so I don't think Putin sees it as critical to rush things at the loss of extra life. He's been downright jovial when asked about some elements of the war like the use of nuclear weapons - clearly conveying that he thinks it's absurd Russia would ever need to resort to such extreme measures.
Practical-Pea-1205@reddit
Any country fighting an existensial war will conscript soldiers. Do your think the people fighting Germany during World War Two had a choice?
imunfair@reddit
You should tell the Ukrainian people it's "existential", because they don't seem to think so.
They'd like to remain an independent country for sure, but only as long as someone else is willing to go fight and die for that right. That's the disconnect between the poll numbers and the recruitment numbers where they have to drag them kicking and screaming from their homes and gyms.
JammyRoger@reddit
There is a russian telegram channel that counts deceased people from actual evidence since the first day of the war (gravestones, death certificates, etc) and provides evidense for each case. It's currently at ~200000 I believe? We can roughly extrapolate it to two times as much casualties since a lot of them go unreported or are registered as "missing" / "deserting" to avoid paying out settlements to the family of the deceased.
Luesal2@reddit
From the internal military sources through a bunch of third parties(so can be broken phone sitiation), documented as dead were around 120k at the end of 2025. Thats not counting mercenaries and original lughansk and donestk forces as they were not part of russian army burecraucy.
JammyRoger@reddit
I believe it not only counts mercenaries but also losses not reported by the official army bureucracy. Some people just die and are never reported / reported wrongly / reported as deserters
Luesal2@reddit
It is very unlikely that they dont record everything as its not public data but for internal use only. People working there are extremely dumb but follow rules very precisely, except the cases where they can get personal gain which is not the case here.
JammyRoger@reddit
I'm more talking about the commanders on the ground telling HQ that some such is "missing"/"deserting"/"captured" when he is actually 6 feet underground in a mass grave or ash in the woods somewhere.
But also, you don't know just HOW corrupt the russian bureucracy is. I am telling you, if an MVD officer tells some clerc to "make a mistake" every now and again - he will do it just because he was asked to by a man in a uniform.
Luesal2@reddit
Ive sadly lived in russia for over 30 years and was in contact with people working at more civilian side of military. I can guarantee you there is 0 percent chance they are misreporting anything internally because there is no personal gain and someone missing after several months is counted as dead anyway. And MVD has nothing to do with it.
JammyRoger@reddit
It depends if you were in contact with them during or before the war. I am not saying you are wrong, but mileage definitely varies.
imunfair@reddit
Ukraine does that, Russia doesn't - it's just another case of people extrapolating Ukraine's problems and assuming Russia has the same ones.
The big issue for Ukraine is that their death payouts are huge even with the changes they've made recently, so every 1000 bodies Russia gives back is massively expensive, which is why they delay identification for so long. At one point they even tried to claim the bodies were "probably mostly Russian" but they shut up real quick when Russia started publishing a list of names of the bodies that had been handed over.
JammyRoger@reddit
Bro. I am a russian in the drafting age. I know everything about that stuff, because I see it first hand daily. You are just wrong
imunfair@reddit
Forgive me if I don't believe you when your whole "we can extrapolate it to two times" was literally a regurgitation of how the article hand-waved a quarter of a million verified losses into a half a million loss.
JammyRoger@reddit
Well, it is true that we cannot say with 100% certainty that some amount of people died before we get concrete evidence on every single one.
HOWEVER, such a thing as "a reasonable assumption" exists, and it's a well known fact that any war losses reported during the war can be, with a certain degree of confidence, extrapolated twofold for more truthful numbers. Especially when the system is on record for concealing and misreporting their losses.
imunfair@reddit
If it was a short war that logic might make sense, but we're four years into a war where you can report a person dead after they're missing for 3-6 months, and you're claiming that Russia is hiding 250,000 deaths, of which at best only 35,000 would be not yet eligible to be declared dead.
So while it's possible that there are more than the confirmed number, I'd say it's silly to say "oh we can just double it because there must be people we missed". Raising 250k to 300k with that logic? Sure, seems reasonable. 250k to 500k seems sketchy.
JammyRoger@reddit
I'm inclined to agree that "just double it lmao" is a little heavy - handed. But I would be surprised if it wasn't at least 1.5 times the amount.
When you live in a corrupt regime that tells more lies than truths, you are kinda inclined to believe thing are always much worse, than reported (and this thinking often yields quite accurate results)
Luesal2@reddit
It is stupid to extrapolate osint sources, if you ever try manually checking them you will notice a very large percentage of duplicates, dubious sources and just straight up false claims with people being alive and well.
WalterWoodiaz@reddit
Ukraine has lost less people on the basis of them defending.
crusadertank@reddit
Defending does not necessarily mean fewer casualties
Just as an example Iraq was defending against the US and I'm pretty sure they didn't have fewer casualties because of that. The French at Verdun had higher casualties despite being the defender etc
If the attacking side has superiority in long range strikes like artillery, air power etc then it's the defending side that suffers more casualties
crusadertank@reddit
Defending does not necessarily mean fewer casualties
Just as an example Iraq was defending against the US and I'm pretty sure they didn't have fewer casualties because of that. The French at Verdun had higher casualties despite being the defender etc
If the attacking side has superiority in long range strikes like artillery, air power etc then it's the defending side that suffers more casualties
imunfair@reddit
Ah the old pro-UA misunderstanding of the 3 to 1 ratio.
Pyrric_Endeavour@reddit
Tankie detected
imunfair@reddit
Reality has a pro-Russian bias for those who believe the 3-1 ratio means three Russians die for every Ukrainian defender.
WalterWoodiaz@reddit
I never said it was 3-1 btw lmao
imunfair@reddit
That's literally the whole basis of the "lost less people defending" pro-UA talking point, but sure, feel free to tell me what totally-not-3-1 ratio you were thinking Russia lost.
WalterWoodiaz@reddit
I only said Ukraine was losing less people, not what ratio.
VaughanThrilliams@reddit
Isn’t that a simplification? It might well be the case that Ukraine is losing less but defenders often sustain more casualties (e.g., Operation Barbarossa) and Ukraine has also been on the offensive for large parts of the war
TheReplyingDutchman@reddit
Except Ukraine has not lost that many. Ukrainian deaths are about a fifth of that.
Master_Flash@reddit
UK intelligence agency? You can bet the report is full of shit and it's methodology and sources were pulled from thin air.
But even if the assessment is correct and the numbers are close to the reality, it fails to address the fact that Ukraine itself has almost as many loses as Russia, while being a smaller country
Nevermind, this is just another excuse for UK government to implement Orwellian monitoring and control of speech on it's own population.
UK is a country where if you tweet something controversial like "I think Israel is a violent state.", police may knock on your door. What a hellhole.
faultydesign@reddit
What do Russian numbers say?
Master_Flash@reddit
The reality is that the ratio of losses between Russia and Ukraine is uncomfortably too close for any of you people who get fed western propaganda.
By the way. Nice nazi flag you have for user flair.
faultydesign@reddit
The article is not about the ratio though, so why do you bring it up?
Master_Flash@reddit
I really don't like to state the obvious but in a war usually there are two sides fighting and men die on both sides, in case you don't know.
So it's important to contextualize that while one country is fighting a slow war of attrition, the other is facing an existential threat, simply because one side can keep pouring men until there's no one else on the other side.
That does not mean I support any sides. I want this war to end, it should have never started.
faultydesign@reddit
It's a war of aggression by russia on the pretext of ukraine not being a loyal puppet no more.
How hard is it to pick a side?
Master_Flash@reddit
Listen, I don't know how old you are but you sound incredibly naive with a romanticized view of the world. So pay attention to what I'm going to say.
Everything you said is true. That does not mean it justifies you blindly submitting to the other side.
There's something called realpolitik. It means that written law is beautiful and just but the real world is not. If a thief is pointing a gun to your head, you won't argue with him about your "rights and freedom".
Zelensky campaigned on restoring relations with Russia and ending conflict with separatists in Ukraine. That's why he was well voted in Russian speaking areas. What he did after was tear the minsk agreements and start barking about joining NATO/joining EU/housing weapons inside Ukraine.
And because of this I should give a free pass to the Kiev regime snatching men out of streets and throwing them into vans? It's called busifcation and you should search about it.
You have all the right in the world to hate one of the sides, but if you start licking the boot of the other because of it, you will end as meat for the meatgrinder.
And it's agonizing death. It's not romantic nor heroic like in the movies and books. It's death, and death for people who don't give a shit about you.
re_carn@reddit
Yeah, pretty much everything you said is a lie. And the attempts to justify the invasion of Ukraine with this barrage of propaganda look absolutely ridiculous—as is always the case with Russian propagandists. And you’re using the exact same talking points.
re_carn@reddit
Lol. Another "Brazilian"
Master_Flash@reddit
my eurocuck friend, anything I said is a lie? Ask Gemini and eat shit after lololololol
Brave-Battle-2615@reddit
It’s super funny this started with “what do Russian numbers say” and ends with another 5 paragraphs of semantics from a RU supporter. Never change
Master_Flash@reddit
You can never call me a liar cause you know it's all true.
Let me give you more truth.
Zelensky was ready to negotiate very early in the war when shit hit the fan. Boris Johnson, then prime minister of UK went there personally to pull the leashes on their puppet and order him to continue fighting.
And somehow that what you support, I don't know why.
Let me repeat myself. I think this war should have never started and I want it to end and for young men to stop dying en mass. I said this and it's super weird that it gets to your nerves, really weird.
Brave-Battle-2615@reddit
Why does your LLM come off as autistic?
Master_Flash@reddit
dodges the conversation entirely lol
English is not my first language. I'm blocking you because you just want to talk shit instead of having a discussion.
And fuck you, btw.
Brave-Battle-2615@reddit
You gotta admit, when every pro RU comment is removed by user at the exact same second it’s almost as funny as that conversation itself.
Born_Suspect7153@reddit
Russia bad? No, Ukraine just as, if not more bad!
Actually, UK BAD, very bad!
What a trip this comment is.
Master_Flash@reddit
You're talking like you have a learning deficiency.
Born_Suspect7153@reddit
Talk about Russia bad? No, let's talk about Ukraine bad. Or better: UK very very bad!
GianfrancoZoey@reddit
I like the continued insistence that we aren't currently involved in an international conflict, despite our involvement in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran.
sakezaf123@reddit
Yeah, Russia has been waging hybrid warfare against the UK and other European nations for more than a decade now. I think it's time to acknowledge that, and do something about it.
d_for_dumbas@reddit
Blah blah 0 casualties for russia stronkh Blah blah
Get better Material
Master_Flash@reddit
You can see daily videos of Ukrainian men being dragged of the streets and thrown into vans, victims of busifcation.
Somehow you think there are zero casualties for Ukraine and a million for Russia.
Both countries are bleeding men like crazy, Ukraine is simply four times smaller than Russia. That's what I said in my comment but you decided to act like a retarded lol.
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