Ukraine pummels Russia with fresh attacks on airbases and oil refineries overnight

Posted by polymute@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 43 comments

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PartySr@reddit

Ukraine launched a series of strikes on Russia in the early hours of Wednesday morning, including on a military aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, a key Russian airbase. The Ukrainian military also struck an oil refinery in Tuapse.

For the life of me, I still don't understand what is Putin's plan. They won't push Ukraine back, Ukraine is also not capable to get the land that is current occupied, but both are currently losing lives, money and infrastructure that will take decades to rebuild.

Is bad for Ukraine, but is even worse for Russia's oligarchs now that Ukraine has these drones. They are losing billions every week, and will lose even more and more, especially because Ukraine is developing their drone technology at a rapid pace.

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GrAdmThrwn@reddit

Slow down mate, Ukraine hit one base and a refinery.

I'll be honest. I'm actually tapping this out from Bucharest and watching your tv and talking to people here, do you actually see it as inevitable that Ukraine will enter NATO and the European Union??

Regarding Russia, Russia doesn't need an angle here. Their distrust of NATO and the UE is their primary security concern. There is no other security concern. Japan isn't making a real issue of the Kuril Islands, the US, Canada and the Nordic nations aren't building sufficient Icebreakers to contest them in the Arctic and it doesn't look like Iran is going to fall apart so their southern underbelly looks safe(ish) for now.

Their only geopolitical focus is ensuring Ukraine does not successfully integrate with the West. And considering Merz's halfarsed offer of "associate membership" and its subsequent refusal by Zelensky, do you actually see this happening before the war reaches a conclusion?

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Firecracker048@reddit

Russia wouldnt need to have any security concerns over the west or nato had they just been a bit nicer to their neighboring countries. Even after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia thought it could just bully its neighbors into submission again and install Pro-Kremlin puppets.

Nato only expanded as far as it did because those countries couldn't trust Russia as far as the average politician falls off a building there thanks to not just actions within Soviet times, but post-Soviet actions in neighboring countries. Any fear or concerns they have is entirely of their own doing.

Russia also can't really stop in Ukraine right now either. Putin has put himself in a position where he needs to secure Luhansk and Donbass before he can even think about talking peace, And judging from the last offer from the Kremlin, nothing short of a Ukraine that is unable to resist another invasion is what Putin wants.

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GrAdmThrwn@reddit

I mean. I don't disagree, but nation states don't usually function on "niceness".

Nato expanded because post 1991 it was in a superior position to do so relative to Russia and the relevant policy makers felt it would be a net benefit to Washington and the risk of Russian protest at the time was minimal. Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger both make this abundantly clear in their interviews and statements from that era.

Of course Russia's neighbours coming off the back of a centuries long losing streak in their own centuries long squabbles and contests with Russia would want to be part of NATO, I am not making any argument to the contrary. But "moral" counterpoints don't have any effect whatsoever on any realistic threat assessment from Moscow's perspective.

To be clear, all of these countries had a "right" to consider membership in any military alliance or grouping they can conceivably join. But the right to do so is infinitely less important than the decision to actually pursue one path or another, because decisions invite hard consequences and counterplay from opposing parties.

So yeah, you're right. In some hypothetical world where Russia and Poland, the Baltics, Finland, etc etc all got along just fine, there would be no need for NATO expansion.

But it should come as no surprise that, however NATO expansion came about, Moscow would be likely to take a dim view of it, especially as it directly enters what policy makers consider to be its immediate sphere of influence.

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Firecracker048@reddit

NATO itself is a defensive military alliance, so Russia has 0 reason to feel threatened by nato unless they had plans for those countries post USSR(which yeah, they have).

"NATO aggression" as the Kremlin puts it is a complete oxymoron. My entire point is Russia really has no ground to stand on when complaining about nato or NATO membership when the reason why countries have joined NATO, especially in the last few years, is 100% the fault of the russians

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kitolz@reddit

What NATO wants from Russia is a stable trading partner, that's really it. The instability is 100% due to Russia not being happy with the status quo despite massively profiting from international trade and having a very outsized influence over global politics in proportion to their economy.

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PartySr@reddit

Slow down mate, Ukraine hit one base and a refinery.

Are you one of those people who is weighting chips one at a time on a scale thinking that they won't gain weight because none of the chips weighted anything, or what? They hit factories and refineries almost on a weekly basis, and it will get worse because Ukraine is building drones in droves. They are even opening a drone factory in Romania, and I'm sure other countries have partnered with Ukraine to do the same thing.

Russia is not in a good position either.

Their distrust of NATO and the UE is their primary security concern

What is this? Have you people started the same argument like the Zionists? "BUT KAHAMAS".. Finland is in NATO because of Russia actions. They don't want NATO at their borders, but somehow NATO just expanded around Russia borders.

And yes, Ukraine will join EU and NATO. I'm not saying that it will happen in the next 4-5 years, but it will happen eventually. Like it or not, Ukraine is connected to Europe more than ever, and you have Russia to thank for that.

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GrAdmThrwn@reddit

Lets be honest, its not as if Finland was ever going to side with Russia in the hypothetical case of a war between Russia and NATO. Finland made a decision in 2022. Lets see how it pans out for them. Personally I think Finnish neutrality was far more prosperous for them economically, but lets wait and see if they eventually bounce back. I'm not really well versed enough in their economics to say one way or another if losing out on cross border exports, Russian tourism or energy prices is that much of a hit so I won't comment.

As for Ukraine joining the EU. Eh, I'll believe it when I see it, specifically because as of right now, the indications from Europe seem to be against fast track membership, as justified by the recent offer of "associate membership", which again, from the perspective of Kiev is an absolute joke, given what they consider themselves to have done on behalf of Europe.

Full membership, with security assurances, economic assistance, debt forgiveness and so on, which is exactly what Ukraine needs right now, both economically and politically to justify the suffering they have gone through, doesn't appear to be on the table from the perspective of the Europeans who are dangling EU membership in front of Ukraine like a carrot. Again, this isn't a case of Ukraine not wanting it or Russia not preventing it, this is Europe saying its not happening.

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PartySr@reddit

Is funny how you went from "Russia is scared of NATO and they don't want NATO to expand their border" to changing the whole conversation to how it might affect Finland's economy.

this is Europe saying its not happening.

It might not happen in next 10 or 20 years? Stop sniffing on Putin delusions.

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GrAdmThrwn@reddit

I never said any of that though. All I said was that Russia doesn't have a dozen or so security concerns like comparable powers, it just has one. Which is its western periphery.

Also you brought up Finland.

But look, you believe whatever you want, you seem awfully invested in one particular viewpoint for a Romanian, all things considered, especially compared to the hundreds of Romanians I've spoken to about geopolitics, who all pretty much seem quite happy to entertain every perspective against the middle over țuica and honest conversations without accusing each other of being propaganda outlets.

Have a lovely evening.

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PartySr@reddit

I never said any of that though

Their distrust of NATO and the UE is their primary security concern

These bots, lmao.

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GrAdmThrwn@reddit

Everyone who disagrees is a bot. Fantastic discourse.

A security concern is a much broader term than "afraid" or "scared". I would wager that Cuba not being strictly a US friendly regime is a security concern (as evidenced by the long sad history of US sanctions and attempted interventions there) but I would be raising eyebrows if anyone truly posed the argument that the United States was afraid or genuinely frightened of Cuba being not in their camp.

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PartySr@reddit

A security concern is a much broader term than "afraid" or "scared"

Russia explicitly said that they don't want NATO to expand their borders. You also said the same thing when you said that Russia sees NATO and US as their main security concern, but please, go ahead and continue talking, bot.

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GrAdmThrwn@reddit

Yeah yeah, I'm sure Moscow also said somewhere that they consider Finland equivalent to Ukraine as well. Feel free to quote that while you're at it.

But look, this really is going nowhere and one of us will be proven wrong vis a vis Ukraine so have a good one mate, good luck with your opinions, hope they pan out because you seem to care a whole lot more about the outcomes than anyone else on the outside looking in with a healthy outlook on this. Unless you're directly involved in the fighting or on someones payroll, in which case, good luck, hope you get out and get paid, whichever side you're on.

Ciao.

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PartySr@reddit

They consider Finland equivalent to Ukraine as well

Ah, yes. I remember when Russia said that NATO should not expand their border, except up to Finland. Finland is fair game. That's exactly what Russia said, right?

Bad bot.

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kwonza@reddit

Oligarchs still get richer if you believe Forbes, and Putin has parliamentary elections in the autumn. I guess he thinks of he stops now people will get mad and his party will lose seats.

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Rindan@reddit

The place where you can go to jail for calling a war, a war, and that regularly openly murder opposition politicians is not worried about "losing elections". You understand that the Russian state, which is fully controlled by Putin, fullycontrols Russian elections, right?

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kwonza@reddit

When was the last time an opposition leader was murdered, 6 years ago? Also you don’t go to jail for calling war a war, at worst you’ll get a fine

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Touristenopfer@reddit

"Elections".

They'll probably lose exactly the number of seats they think will be a 'reasonable' number for discontent with the still ongoing war 3 day 'special operation'. As it was decades ago, this number is already planned. That's my take.

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haggerton@reddit

It's a cope take. Russian support for Putin remains high according to Levada polling (an agency flagged as "foreign agent" by Russian gov so no pro-Putin bias there).

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kwonza@reddit

Eh, they will certainly meddle with the results, but they can’t meddle with them too much, otherwise it would be very noticeable

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ConstructionDry95@reddit

Lmao

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Eexoduis@reddit

Does it even matter if they lose seats

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kwonza@reddit

It matters to them since once news about failing approval ratings hit the news they scrambled to mitigate the situation

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ChefCurryYumYum@reddit

Their previous spring offenses have gained ground, it is really only this year that they have been so stymied. I think now that Ukraine has developed home grown weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia that the calculus is changing for Russian leadership.

Whether that results in a full mobilization or actual peace talks is yet to be seen.

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MyFeetLookLikeHands@reddit

i’m rooting for ukraine too but you’d be foolish to think they clearly have the upper hand… we don’t see it much on reddit but the reality on the ground in ukraine is similarly grim. This is a war of attrition that will likely end when one side literally can’t continue anymore

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PartySr@reddit

you’d be foolish to think they clearly have the upper hand

Go ahead and show me where I said that or at least, implied that.

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MyFeetLookLikeHands@reddit

really? see below…

Is bad for Ukraine, but is even worse for Russia's oligarchs now that Ukraine has these drones. They are losing billions every week, and will lose more and more, especially because Ukraine is developing their drone technology at a rapid pace.

Ukraine will enter NATO and UE at some point, that is inevitable. Putin is just lying himself if he thinks otherwise. Negotiations should be on the table, but the moron is still holding on the delusion that he will take Ukraine.

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PartySr@reddit

I'm not saying anything, bot. You literally just copied the part where I said that both are suffering.

Where is the part where I said that Ukraine has the upper hand? None of them are winning anything, both are just losing.

If you can't read, I suggest you go back to school.. You should start from kindergarten.

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GianfrancoZoey@reddit

Holy shit haha even when someone agrees you can't help yourself, you people are something else

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_CHIFFRE@reddit

Is bad for Ukraine, but is even worse for Russia's oligarchs now that Ukraine has these drones. They are losing billions every week

$900m damage in 6 months (and many successful hits during that time), so at most it's likely a few hundred millions in damage a week, all in all. Billions is too much.

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PartySr@reddit

Thanks, ChatGPT. What has that do with their refineries, and their total oil refining capacity.

These Russian bots, lmao.

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_CHIFFRE@reddit

well if you have better evidence that these strikes on energy infra are costing them billions every week then go for it... Btw even 2-3b a week would be over $100-150b a year. Unless you meant billions of ruble.

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PartySr@reddit

well if you have better evidence that these strikes on energy infra

The illiteracy, lmao. Who said anything about their energy infrastructure?

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_CHIFFRE@reddit

the main aim/damage from these strikes is to the energy infra, you haven't explicitly mentioned it but the article and quoted part talks of it.

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PartySr@reddit

The article only mentioned Ukraine energy infrastructure, and my quote talks about the OIL REFINERY.

Mental gymnastics and illiteracy. What a duo.

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_CHIFFRE@reddit

Refinery infra is not part of it? OK got it and Billions in damage a week, sure thing.

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PartySr@reddit

but the article and quoted part talks of it.

Refinery infra is not part of it

This bot is changing its arguments in every comment.

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ForskinEskimo@reddit

>what is Putin’s plan

Engulf Ukraine in a cycle of perpetual war which prevents them from joining NATO and the EU. Until that is secured concretely via installing a friendly puppet government, continuing to bleed Ukraine into population collapse/general non-function as an independent state.

I mean, strategically they barely need to take territory because they’re engaged in mass-scale attrition warfare, and Ukraine is incredibly reluctant to give any ground, meaning they play into Russia’s hand.

Russia can keep taking relatively small strikes on their infrastructure because the war is far more devastating to Ukraine.

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Beat_Saber_Music@reddit

Putin started this war thinking it'd be like say Afghanistan's fall to the Taliban, and he wanted this to be his great legacy. This is imperial hubris of a dictator, more accurately a tsar which Putin in practice is, and he cannot give up this war because by now he has bet everything on it.

Putin has allowed pro war figures to fester and grown in influence throughout this war, and sufficed to say if he actually wanted to end this war today, there would be tens of thousands of radicalized Russian troops ready to march on Moscow probably to force Putin to keep the war going, alongside oligarchs who have financailly to gain form this war. For the Russian elites, this war is profitable at the expense of the Russian civilian population and economy, which doesn't matter to them more than their own mafia like gang at the top.

In addition to this risk of revolt by say the pro war reactionaries, you also have Putin being surrounded by a system of yes men, because telling the truth gets you fired, windowed or moved to the side while lying gets you rewarded in Russia. For example Surovikin who was behind the successful Surovikin line and withdrawal from west of the Dnieper and Kherson was fired, where as by contrast Aleksandr Lapin who lost Kharkiv was promoted afterwards, only to lose another battle to Ukrainians. Basically the Russian commanders at all levels keep lying to their superiors that they are doing fantastic and the Ukrainians will lose eventually, so Putin is told by the small circle of people around him that Ukraine will lose if they keep fighitng, and because Putin wants to believe that narrative, he keep these liard who tell good things to him around him. Dissents makes you an enemy in Russian politics, so only yes men proliferate, where loyalty to Putin and the war is more important than actual military competency at the top.

As a good example Russia could have spent billions of rubles on air defence agianst Ukrainians and to be able to perhaps replace their air defence assets. However instead tens of billions are spent on one missile to terrorize Kyiv, rather than on an air defence system or two that could say down Ukrainian drones hitting refineries.