Region adapting to diminished US power after Washington fails to land knockout blow on Tehran or safeguard allies

The shock of the Iran war and its fallout has driven rivals in the Middle East to get behind a peace deal, pushing the Trump administration to accept a tentative agreement in the face of furious opposition from Israel and its supporters in Washington.

The diplomatic efforts come as the region is reshaping to adapt to diminished US power after Washington’s inability to land a knockout blow on Iran, force the opening of the strait of Hormuz or safeguard its Gulf allies. Tehran has few friends in the region, but the regime’s survival has meant that its neighbours have had to find an accommodation.

Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at Kings College London, said the Gulf was shocked at the degree to which Washington protected Israel first against Iranian drones and missiles, despite the trillions of dollars of Gulf investment pouring into the US.

“We’re probably seeing the final days of American empire in the Middle East,” he said. “Across the Gulf, there is complete disillusionment with American influence and the ability of America to lead.”

The provisional deal was agreed at the end of last week after Pakistani and Qatari officials travelled to Iran in a final push for an outline agreement between Tehran and Washington. In a call with Trump on Saturday, leaders from a group of eight Muslim-majority nations urged him to accept a deal that would end the war, reopen the strait of Hormuz, and relaunch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.

The United Arab Emirates, which had reportedly urged fellow Gulf countries to join the war against Iran and carried out its own airstrikes, swung behind the peace deal alongside Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt. The regional consensus-building process appeared to repair some of the bitter rivalry for influence between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with several phone calls between their rulers taking place in recent weeks.

The fallout from the war leaves little prospect of more countries joining Trump’s signature Abraham accords to establish better relations between Israel and several Arab states, despite his demand on Monday that all the countries involved in the peace negotiations should do so. When Trump used the conference call on Saturday to urge more countries to sign up, he was reportedly met with silence. Islamabad, which led the mediation efforts, has said that disunity in the Muslim world only plays into the hands of Israel.

The US presence in the Middle East, spread across more than a dozen bases, is expected to remain. But countries are reaching out to additional security partners in the region and beyond, with Europe set to take a bigger role. During the war, Pakistan sent troops and fighter jets to defend Saudi Arabia, while Egyptian soldiers and planes were stationed in the UAE, Cairo’s biggest financial backer. There is also talk of striking non-aggression agreements with Iran.

Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, a political science professor in the UAE, said his country had wanted to see Iran with no missiles and drones, no proxies and no nuclear activity, but that ultimately proved unattainable.

He said a new Middle East was emerging with Turkey, Israel and the Gulf states competing to fill the vacuum left by a weakened Tehran.