Next year we're getting 0.5T model from Grok

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

We're also going to get self-driving-vehicles by the End of ~~2019~~ ~~2022~~ ~~2025~~ 2026.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Yeah, sure, an LLM might still be a smaller step than the above, but how does anyone still believe what this guy says?

Especially given that 99% of this sub can't self-host a 0.5T-Model anyways.

[-]

former_farmer@reddit

Tesla has self driving vehicles since a few years ago. The problem now are regulations and so on. But the technology is working and available in some cities since 1 or 2 years.

[-]

93simoon@reddit

Do you believe NASA? Because according to them we should have been on Mars by the 80s.

[-]

Cuplike@reddit

Oh my fucking god dude you are still using this arguement here years later?

Yes I agree NASA are also liars and fraudsters, will you now admit Elon is a liar aswell?

[-]

93simoon@reddit

You miss the point, but I'm not surprised given your simplistic black and white world view.

The answer is that both are trying to achieve very complicated ground breaking and world changing feats that are subject to many unexpected delays that are hard to foresee so you either believe both or none.

[-]

Cuplike@reddit

The answer is that both are trying to achieve very complicated ground breaking and world changing feats that are subject to many unexpected delays that are hard to foresee so you either believe both or none.

Okay, I believe none. Now can I call Elon a fraud? Also, uploading the old version of Grok to Huggingface is not a hard feat

[-]

Irythros@reddit

Do I believe an entity that has to follow government requirements with a budget out of their control or a person that completely controls and runs the company they're making predictions for

I wonder which can and should be more reliable.

[-]

93simoon@reddit

The answer is that both are trying to achieve very complicated feats that are subject to many unexpected delays that are hard to foresee so you either believe both or none.

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

I've got a book from my dad's childhood still in my bookshelf, which must've been printed in the 70s as well which promised all of that already, so yeah, I am aware.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

By definition, you cannot put a timeline on an unsolved problem especially one that has never been solved by anyone in the history of mankind.

[-]

Something-Ventured@reddit

This is literally done all the time in technology development.

JFK famously did it about manned moon missions.

Elon does it to manipulate share prices and commit securities fraud.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

It’s not the same as building a new iPhone or outputting new software. That is reiterating. Solving problems that never have been done before cannot be guaranteed to actually be solved much less at a timeline.

[-]

Something-Ventured@reddit

We literally put fairly accurate timelines on ground-breaking physics technology development all the time.

Please read the History of the Atomic Bomb, or about the SEMI road, or really almost any space-related technology developments from the 50s to today.

Elon's promises are well documented lies, securities violations, and basic technology futurism predictions.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

and we literally miss timelines for decades and longer like cold fusion, climate weather change and tons of other things. Florida was supposed to be underwater by now and the ice caps melted and that was agreed by 90+% of scientists.

Oops.

[-]

Something-Ventured@reddit

None of those promises were about wooing investors or fulfilling contracts.

Everything I referenced was.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

Really? Then why does Al Gores net worth near 300 million? From pushing the climate change farce. Ever see his monster house? No solar panels!

On cold fusion etc, OF COURSE those promises were used to fund the science and research behind it.

[-]

Something-Ventured@reddit

Uhh. You can literally go see what the department of energy funded and their demonstration requires for said funding. They are called FOAs (funding opportunity announcements).

It’s not “go build cold fusion reactor” it’s demonstrate method or sub component that a bunch of scientists agreed would be necessary to achieve fusion long-term in a very similar process to the SEMI roadmap.

I don’t know why Al Gore is part of this discussion. It’s unhinged.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

Do you think only the govt invests?

[-]

Something-Ventured@reddit

Government is over 99% of fusion technology development investment over the last 30 years.

No public companies have ever promised it would work in less than a decade (Lockheed nearly made that mistake in 2014).

The entirety of private market investment in fusion has been less than just China’s R&Ds investment in the last 3~5 years.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

200-500 million all on junk science over a span approximately 40 years.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/8e5658a02b324154a080f201545a9695

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

Then don't put a promise up ;)

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

It’s not a promise. It’s an assumption or prediction.

[-]

greentea05@reddit

Yeah and he's shit at them.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

Fine but there is a difference.
Id rather have someone be late or off in making predictions and still be solving never solved problems. That person changes the world.

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

If you think that person changes the world, you seriously lost the plot.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

The entire electric car category wouldn't exist if Musk didn't create it. Rockets wouldn't be a thing if Musk didn't make it viable. When someone is most successful person in multiple categories on the planet and you think the plot is lost because you can't see that then maybe you are the one with the lost plot that clearly doesn't jive with reality.

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

Ah yes, Musk who famously invented rockets and electric cars.

Who even needs Rockets?

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

reading or comprehension must be hard for you... Which isn't really a surprise. Did I say he created the electric car or did I say the "entire electric car category wouldn't exist"

That's not the same thing... Unless you need to lie and strawman.

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

Ah yes, the personal attack, the reddit classic. Blocked.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

When you put wrong words into my mouth then you are the one in the wrong. Not me.

[-]

Recoil42@reddit

The entire electric car category wouldn't exist if Musk didn't create it.

I literally run the r/electricvehicles subreddit, this is an utterly insane thing to say.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

So your bad in multiple subs. What a surprise!!!

[-]

greentea05@reddit

But he's got about as far as everyone else. Possibly even fallen behind - and I say that as someone who owns an Model S.
I preferred it when most people didn't know who Musk was - now he's the world's loudest fuckwit.

[-]

quantgorithm@reddit

Really? Who is better? Who is everyone else and how are they better?

[-]

TheLexoPlexx@reddit

Definitely fallen behind, Waymo and Mercedes are both ahead

[-]

Dramatic_Entry_3830@reddit

Your vram poorness is disgusting.

[-]

ambient_temp_xeno@reddit

Finally, I am in the 1%

[-]

Familiar_Text_6913@reddit

elontime.io

Should be 2-3 years for open-weights (not source)

[-]

LeucisticBear@reddit

Elon musk will be dead before he open sources a model. Plus likely grok disappears and cursor keeps using custom kimi k2 under TeSpaceXAIsor, Elon just sells compute and runs robots

[-]

craterIII@reddit

cursor "grok" composer

[-]

DeedleDumbDee@reddit

Just like how full autonomous self driving was 2 years away in 2015, 1 million autonomous Cybertaxis by 2020 in 2019, 2020 underground hyper loop connecting all major California cities in 2015, and crewed Mars missions by 2024 in 2018.

[-]

SnooDogs7747@reddit

You'll be shocked how good their latest self driving is if you try it out

[-]

Wix86@reddit

He made that claim when Tesla was far away from autonomous! If I understand it right, 0.5T = Grok 4.3, which exists right now and we have access via web and API. They only need to upload it on Github.

It would be really cool, If xAI would do something like Gemma and train & release few 2-30B params models.

[-]

relmny@reddit

2-3 years? are you musk's fan? the first thing to come to mind when that creep talks is "yeah, sure"

[-]

VoiceApprehensive893@reddit

right when it becomes so useless that youd rather use a popular 30b model

[-]

SucculentSpine@reddit

Honestly, some 30b models right now are better already.

[-]

ForsookComparison@reddit

Assuming this is Grok 4.3 it blows most of what we have at-home in that size range out of the water.

For general-purpose the best open weight today around that size is Deepseek Flash and Qwen 397B. I use both extensively and Grok 4.3 is leagues ahead.

Now there's always a chance someone makes something new by EOY, but open-weight releases have slowed to a crawl. SOTA for Western-trained open weight models right now is Nemotron-Super-3 - that feels insane to say.

[-]

Finanzamt_Endgegner@reddit

3.7 plus aka the 400b ish qwen is better imo and that one isn't iss but I have hopes 122b will be soon so that one will probably still be better than grok lol

[-]

inevitabledeath3@reddit

Is Grok really ahead of DeepSeek and Qwen?

[-]

MangoAtrocity@reddit

I’m as much of an Elon hater as the next guy, but Grok 4.3 is really fucking impressive. The xAI team is crazy talented.

[-]

inevitabledeath3@reddit

I don't think I have really used that version much. I was going on their previous models I had tried. They seemed mediocre at best.

[-]

ForsookComparison@reddit

Yes.

I'll disclaim that with "I haven't spent enough time with V4-Pro and Qwen3.7-Max", but neither are super relevant to the 500B open weight model scene anyways.

[-]

Creative-Type9411@reddit

4.3 is a little weird over 4.2 i dont know if they changed the temp/prompt to increase token usage but its second guesses a LOT more and is constantly asking for reinforcement vs before the 4.3 update

[-]

yetiflask@reddit

You clearly have no idea what you're talking about. Something I wish we don't see in this sub (which is high quality and not butthurt driven). Grok 4.3, assuming that's what he's talking about, is absolutely amazing. Use it, and then come back.

[-]

EndlessZone123@reddit

Their older models were quite unfiltered weren't they?

[-]

edsonmedina@reddit

I guess that's one way to call it

[-]

unspecified_person11@reddit

So are the Heretic fine-tunes

[-]

Disposable110@reddit

Yeah but so is Gemma right now lol.

[-]

johnnyApplePRNG@reddit

So he's going to offer up his dregs after he's done with them?

Fuck everything about Elon LMFAO get out of here granpa

[-]

Farconion@reddit

grok is the new meta

[-]

ZABKA_TM@reddit

Fun fact:

SpaceX’s IPO filings show that Grok’s revenue is so minuscule that they haven’t even bothered mentioning it

[-]

Honest-Monitor-2619@reddit

Next month.
On Mars tho

[-]

Bwint@reddit

Mars would be a great place for data centers, because it has an atmosphere and can take advantage of convective cooling, but it's also extremely cold.

[-]

youngishgeezer@reddit

The ping time will be a killer though

[-]

iansltx_@reddit

Batch mode all the things

[-]

Cuplike@reddit

Believing in anything Elon says, lol lmao

[-]

TokenRingAI@reddit

Love it. No reason to hate on it. He has released more open source models than Anthropic.

[-]

aladin_lt@reddit

One consistent thing with him is that he overpromises and underdelivers.

[-]

yetiflask@reddit

Yes, Tesla, Falcon 9, Starlink are just underdelivery...

[-]

zonethelonelystoner@reddit

yes.

[-]

0xbyt3@reddit

> and never~~under~~delivers.

ftfy

[-]

relmny@reddit

take my downvote, this sub already has enough crap and doesn't need another liar's (not you) crap.

[-]

hyggeradyr@reddit

I would be infinitely more surprised by an Elon prediction coming true than otherwise. He lies so much, him telling the truth would be a real shock.

[-]

fragment_me@reddit

He also said he’d have a man on the moon already

[-]

WithoutReason1729@reddit

Your post is getting popular and we just featured it on our Discord! Come check it out!

You've also been given a special flair for your contribution. We appreciate your post!

I am a bot and this action was performed automatically.

[-]

VoiceApprehensive893@reddit

remember musk flexing grok having 0.5T while "opus is 5T and sonnet is 1T"

[-]

Kellykeli@reddit

Before or after we get our first mars mission in 2014?

[-]

ares0027@reddit

If he tells me my name is one thing, i would check my birth certificate. Thats how much I trust his words

[-]

Fallom_@reddit

Will it help defeat woke and boost the white birth rate?

[-]

popiazaza@reddit

Pretty sure it will be release when it's no longer useful.

[-]

tecneeq@reddit

Also, he meant the 0.5B model.

[-]

Technical-Earth-3254@reddit

0.5T seems to be the size of Grok 4 as well. Getting it open sourced would be great.

[-]

RoomyRoots@reddit

Gotta try to pump his stocks somehow after the last IPO.

[-]

05032-MendicantBias@reddit

It won't be worth downloading the weight by the time Musk does it. And that assumes Musk would honor this commitment.

[-]

brahh85@reddit

thats kinda the problem, grok released some weights , but in a way in which is useless to add anything to the community. Cohere has a valuation of $7 billion, xai of $250 billion, and the contribution to the community from cohere was way more significant.

[-]

inevitabledeath3@reddit

Are cohere still developing models?

[-]

leorgain@reddit

They just released a new one: https://huggingface.co/CohereLabs/command-a-plus-05-2026-w4a4

[-]

Charming-Author4877@reddit

Is it even going to beat Qwen 27B ?
Definitely not deepseek, which is tiny in comparison also

[-]

Silyus@reddit

let's hope for a way to locally de-nazify it by then

[-]

JustANerd420@reddit

Unsure of why you are getting downvoted. Take my upvote!

[-]

TheLightDances@reddit

Why would anyone ever believe anything Musk says?

[-]

blactuary@reddit

Right around the same time he puts a man on Mars

[-]

k_means_clusterfuck@reddit

No he is full of shit as usual

[-]

decentralize999@reddit

Better if he stopped purchasing millions videocards with his endless billions dollars. It only creates artificial deficit and high price for cards/RAM for average customer.

Anyway, his LLM Grok was crap till version 4. Now it can compete with Qwen cloud LLM, still don't see a reason to sleauth to download this grok especially if it is bigger than 200-300B.

[-]

AmusingVegetable@reddit

What sort of hardware do we need to steal to run such a model?

[-]

decentralize999@reddit

Never trust words from mouth of this scammer.

[-]

Oren_Lester@reddit

Sure and so many other things from papa Elon who always delivers.

[-]

aCLTeng@reddit

The expert mode agent swarm combined with their web search capability are the only reason Grok is worth using. Not sure BraveSearch API or similar would be as useful.

[-]

WeUsedToBeACountry@reddit

Buddy I'm still waiting on the Tesla SDK he promised back in 2013.

[-]

TapAggressive9530@reddit

No thanks

[-]

TwistedPepperCan@reddit

Do people actually believe anything that guys says anymore?

[-]

Public_Parfait_6412@reddit

You mean I can have my very own Mechahitler? Because he'd make a great prisoner in Minecraft jail. 🤣

[-]

Britbong1492@reddit

It's delayed until it's not that useful. Deepseek is probbaly better

[-]

Polite_Jello_377@reddit

Just after the first mission to mars?

[-]

coloredgreyscale@reddit

Either that and/or after FSD has been solved (expected to be solves in about a year - for over 10 years now)

[-]

NickCanCode@reddit

Next year I will be using Qwen4.5 27B

[-]

0xbyt3@reddit

Did he really released any model? I am seeing him talking about releasing some models in 6 months for ages.

[-]

ollie113@reddit

Self hosting a 0.5T model is quite the memory demand, beyond the means of many.

Further, just increasing model size gives diminishing returns on performing. Especially if the dataset is not scaled at the same rate. Further, higher quality data is essential, so relaxing filtering to give more samples is dangerous and can further slow model training.

I don't think we're at the higher limits of model scaling yet, but nevertheless we should bare in mind that model scaling obeys a power law on loss. Twice the number of parameters does not mean half the loss (the form is actually similar to the ideal gas equations, if you know those)

[-]

srigi@reddit

Yeah, and there will also be a flying roadster by the end of April 2026.

[-]

edsonmedina@reddit

Hard pass

[-]

Few_Painter_5588@reddit

From what I understand, Grok 3 and Grok 4 use the same base model. And Grok 4.2 and Grok 4.3 may just be Grok 4 with extra RL on top.

And Grok 4.3 is a decent model. If they Openweight it, it would probably a good open weight model a homelab could realistically run.

[-]

DonkeyBonked@reddit

Because all the open-source Grok models have been so useful so far...

I won't hold my breath waiting for those with the hardware to run a .5T model to say how great it is.

[-]

A lot of Cursor data was added

lol. Use your favourite LLM to translate from Russian: https://files.catbox.moe/s63d7t.png

[-]

Thin_Pollution8843@reddit

Too late imo. I doubt humanity will last that long…