Seth lake 2025 FAA pilot statistics

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ltcterry@reddit

I shared the video. Someone called me out for being negative. Said “40,000 pilots are retiring over the next 20 years.” Someone else replied to that with “we just got 50,000 new Commercial Pilots in the last three years.”

Up to Covid the system produced 4,000 CFIs a year. Year after year. Two years after the hiring craze period, 2023 and 2024 each had 11,000+ new instructors. And 2025 had 13,000.

Last year saw over 20,000 new Commercial Pilots and less than 8,000 new ATPs.

All these record setting numbers are why DPEs have been so busy.

13-4=9, so roughly 9,000 new CFIs last year don’t have a job available. But you have to include the 11-4=7 thousands of instructors from 2023 and 2024…

There is a reason so many posting, “I can’t find a job.” There is a reason Seth’s sliders show many will never find a job.

Still, only pilots get hired for pilot jobs. If “luck is when opportunity meets preparation,” then you have to be prepared to get lucky. But that’s going to go to the top half or less of well prepared pilots.

Starts seem to be down a bit, but from record peaks. Still well above industry averages.

Don’t be pollyanna about it. These are facts. Average airline hiring. Overproduction of pilots. Take off the rose colored glasses and be smart about the process: work, Plan B degree, part time flight training, diligence, hustle, and patience.

This is not the first massive surplus the industry has seen. It won’t be the last. That’s what “cyclical” means.

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weech@reddit

Actual useful take

It’s just math folks

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callitanight79@reddit

“Stats are like bikinis, what it shows is interesting, what it doesn’t show is also interesting.” - Confucius (probably)

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Mundane-Reality-7770@reddit

"Man who stand on toilet is high on pot"- Confucius

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Physical-Program-509@reddit

The fact that this is the top response tells you a lot about this sub.

The FAA data is imperfect, but it is still more honest than the pile of assumptions people use to wave it away. Retirements are not guaranteed hiring. Economic growth (particularly now)is not guaranteed.

And “regionals and majors have still hired from my school” is not a rebuttal to oversupply, it actually highlights the opposite. They have been hiring this whole time, and there is still a bottleneck. Even if you overpays trying to pay-to-play with a 141 school that has some sort of in with a 121

A lot of this sub got brain-broken by the 2022–2024 hiring. Now anything short of hopium gets called bitterness and doom and gloom

Usually that is not analysis. It is just discomfort with the numbers. Kind of like OP making this bread

It’s cool to hope, but if your expectations are grossly out of alignment or you have actual responsibilities it’s a bad way to go about life

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bigbadcrusher@reddit

Even Pipeline jobs want CFII to weed people out. I’m fortunate where I am in that I’m going to be in a solid spot to try and get a CFI job at the school I’m training at (3 people leaving over the course of 3 months), but that’s about the luckiest timing you could ever have

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anonamouse__@reddit

I trust his data and the way he interprets it...1 thing I would add though, is he is basing his information off the assumption that all those who got a commercial ticket will end up wanting to get a job.

I think you'll find a decent amount of those who spent all this money, will give up when the going gets tough, because the path to success isn't as easy as the 469 pilot influencers they follow on tiktok made it out to be, and they won't be earning $250,000 6 months after getting all their licences and ratings.

The whole "being a pilot" thing was and continues to be sold as a high paying job that only requires you to just complete your training. Nothing about the long days building time, getting rejected from endless jobs, the networking that is a requirement, the early as fuck mornings and late nights ... basically, the influencers left out the grind and that will wipe out quite a few of these people when their loans come due and they can't even afford to buy a computer to run Microsoft Flight Simulator

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lil_layne@reddit

I think people who are are the airlines have a lot of upward mobility to come. I think people who are low time don’t have as many jobs available and historically have much more competition with the record setting new supply of pilots.

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Physical-Program-509@reddit

That’s one reason why it’s easy upvotes to come here with mainline equipment flairs and say “crystal ball hazy”

It’s not that hazy

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Toughgetsgoin@reddit

Little bitter eh? Just keep flying, times have been worse and they have been better. You’ll be fine.

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Physical-Program-509@reddit

More like excessively patronized

Sort of like parents/ rich friends who give good natured advice but are completely oblivious to how dumb or irrelevant the advice may be

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Toughgetsgoin@reddit

I don’t really understand people coming on here and complaining that the sky is falling and that they were promised something and they won’t get it. Like dude just keep working at it. Complaining and crashing out like you have been on this thread does absolutely nothing for you. Do you feel as though you’re the first person facing a less than optimal hiring market? Control what’s in your control and do the best you can.

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Physical-Program-509@reddit

Brother.. can you point to a single comment in this thread panicking, or as you say, claiming the sky is falling? All I see is people saying that the numbers are as briefed

Can you point to a a comment I’ve made on this thread that is factually incorrect? I made one complaint that there are a lot of pilots (yourself included) that give low quality advice.

If anything you seem like the one who’s “crashing out” because people are suggesting Marco market

Is this a less than optimal hiring market? Or is over-saturation of pilots with <2000TT w/ATP a fundamentally different proposition?

I feel like you’re crashing out from these facts because deep down you feel threatened by them

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Toughgetsgoin@reddit

Alright man, I hope you get a job flying a plane and it makes you happy.

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BrtFrkwr@reddit

It's a cyclic industry and what we're seeing now is much more what it was like pre-Covid. There will be an economic downturn and furloughs followed by an upturn and hiring. At least the military is making an effort at pilot retention so there is not the flood of military pilots getting out as soon as they're eligible as there was in the 80s and 90s.

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Snoo-48784@reddit

Making an effort and succeeding are two different things. From my perspective as a mil pilot 80-90% are still punching straight to a major as soon as they’re eligible.

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BrtFrkwr@reddit

There was a time when all the major airlines were under consent decrees from courts to hire civilian pilots because all they hired was military.

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Snoo-48784@reddit

I don’t doubt it, but with how the industry has grown they can’t strictly hire mil only anymore. Hence the evolution of the civilian pipeline to what it is today. So not saying the military hiring has slowed down, just that the demand outpaces the amount of mil pilots.

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ltcterry@reddit

Never heard of this. Any article(s) you can share?

I’ve been around military and civilian aviation my entire life. I’ve known civilian 121 pilots who retired 30 years ago.

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bayou365@reddit

Another big Seth Lake fan here. He knows aviation inside and out and keeps up with the times on what information he provides.

You also have to look at what happened during COVID. Airlines got creative so they didn't have to furlough or do layoffs. Some of that was to offer early retirement with nice severance packages to people that would not have otherwise retired for the next several years. That pushed a younger group of Captains into much higher seniority at the mainlines which will slow down upward movement below them.

Add to that the huge push for pilots coupled with a bunch of people who weren't able to work so they took the opportunity to work on their certifications. That pushed more people into the pipeline at a significantly quicker rate.

Other airlines (both 121 and 135) trimmed the fat in their businesses in order to survive; others couldn't compete and shut down since 2019, the latest being Spirit. Most of you probably haven't even heard of all the international airlines that also shut down. Those pilots have to go somewhere so they too fed into the hiring pipeline.

In a lot of foreign countries, GA doesn't provide a livable wage so there is always an influx from other countries of pilots coming here, converting their certs to FAA certs and getting hired in America.

There will always be attrition, whether through retirements, medical, death, people simply leaving the career field, etc. But the rate of hiring and upward mobility slowed and that can't be denied. The best thing anyone can do is prepare themselves to be as competitive as possible for the positions they are applying to. Where the airlines used to be desperate and take anyone that met minimum criteria, they can now afford to be more picky in who they bring on board.

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Guysmiley777@reddit

The airlines being caught flat footed and being desperate for pilots was a once in a generation event. The regionals started taking active steps to prevent them from having to (gasp shudder) offer pay raises to attract pilots like that ever again.

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rFlyingTower@reddit

This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:

Hi there. What are your thoughts on Seth Lake video regarding the pilot backlog? He’s coming from real data and raw numbers yet I still rather be an optimistic and think enough pilots will retire to give space to us new CFI’S. Regionals seem to be hiring, SkyWest and breeze keep hiring from my part 141 school in the Sacramento area.

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RAG_Aviation@reddit

Your school having people go to SkyWest or Breeze doesn’t really disprove the backlog. It may actually show how the market is splitting.

A student coming out of a 141 program with cadet access, school relationships, and recruiters already familiar with the program is in a different position than a 1,500 hour CFI cold-applying everywhere with no pipeline behind them.

That’s the part I think gets missed in these discussions. The market can still be moving for certain schools and certain pipelines while also being very difficult for independent low-time pilots or CFIs near mins. Both things can be true at the same time.

So I wouldn’t read the data as “give up.” I’d read it as “don’t assume the 2022 market is still there.” If you’re at a school that actually has movement into regionals or LCCs, use that advantage, apply early, network hard, and expect the process to take longer than the marketing makes it sound.

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MeatServo1@reddit

Data is data. You can be optimistic and maybe get lucky, but data doesn’t lie. And Seth isn’t a bad actor who’s trying to manipulate data to trick you or steal from you.

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Pretty_Marsh@reddit

*Data are data

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kw10001@reddit

ACHKTUALLY

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BluProfessor@reddit

Both are fine

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Fast-Government-4366@reddit

He’s not lying. Data is what data is. But frankly, the fear of being unable to get a job is gonna lead to a lot of people to not continue and stop flying. Which will then make there be more demand for pilots, then people will see pilots are being hired so they jump back in, and then back and forth and back and forth forever.

It is what it is.

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SenileCFI@reddit

It hurts, but he has a point.

Timing is everything, and now is kinda bad timing.

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