What do you believe could be the absolute worst case SHTF scenario?
Posted by Willing_Chemical_113@reddit | preppers | View on Reddit | 321 comments
As the title asks.
Are you preparing for a few weeks of possible blackout, MAD (all out nuclear war), a Nazi style police state takeover, a Red Dawn type situation, some sort of potential extinction level natural event?
There are many other possibilities.
What, in your estimation, could be the absolutely worst case scenario?
JollyPTurtle@reddit
My worst case is whatever sets the golden horde free to rape, pillage, and plunder. Don't make me build a build a castle. You won't like my castle.
eeeazynow@reddit
Grid down over the full East Coast USA for 2-3 weeks would spiral a couple millions crazies into overdrive
mavrik36@reddit
This hasnt happened when whole states have experienced grid down events, its not a realistic outlook based on what we know and have seen
roberttheiii@reddit
When in the last 50 years has an entire US state lost power for more than three weeks? Genuine question.
TheSensiblePrepper@reddit
I lived in Virginia when Hurricane Isabel took out the Power for 2.5 weeks.
The only reason things still "worked" was because Walmart had a Generator and Trucks were still bringing in supplies and fuel. If those things didn't happen, it would have been far worse.
Woodandsmoke@reddit
Same. I bought a generator and had all the townhomes in my strip plugged in. Everyone kept an eye on the fuel level.
TheSensiblePrepper@reddit
That's when everyone puts fuel in the generator. Your plugged in? That's a gallon or two of Ethanol Free Fuel. It's just fair.
My Father bought a Whole House Generator tied to the Natural Gas line after that Hurricane. He never wanted to be without power again.
Arminas@reddit
It's fair on an exchange level but pretty inhumane. The best prep you can possibly have is a strong community to depend on. If you're turning people away in the first few days because you wouldn't let them charge their cell phone on the excess power your genny is running, they are going to turn you away in turn one day in the future. People don't forget who spurns them in their time of need.
XxSemanticsxX@reddit
Agree totally. The worst we've had here is 3 days, and I threw both my neighbors a lifeline of lead cord power so they could run what they needed to. My worry is that when desperation kicks in, people want more than a cell phone charged.
One of the main reasons we got the genny is because we have a terminally ill son who needs a very expensive infusion done each week. We do it ourselves, but we had 100k in meds go bad once, so we decided the 10k for the genny was something that needed to happen.
I stocked my basement freezer with food from friends and neighbors during the last outage. I didn't mean to suggest I wouldn't assist people. From work and life experience, many people expect more than they ask for, and many more with bad intentions, even.
XxSemanticsxX@reddit
I bought a whole-house generator too, but it's as loud as a ride-on mower, and I worry that after 2 weeks, people figure out some family has all of the amenities they shouldn't have right now, and bad things happen. I just keep buying ammo, but my home isn't huge, and it's in the suburbs on the city line, so I'm sure I couldn't defend it for too long.
TheSensiblePrepper@reddit
During a "normal power outage" it is pretty safe. If it was SHTF, that's different.
JWyszn@reddit
Puerto rico after the hurricane in the first term, millions of people without power for 3 months, hurricane Maria
roberttheiii@reddit
Puerto Rico is a beautiful place and I wish it had better infrastructure but there’s a reason I asked specifically about states. Which Puerto Rico is not. We’re pretty spoiled with power. The islands broadly, Puerto Rico included, are not as accustomed to reliable power as we are which means they both tough it out better but are also often better prepared for it.
JWyszn@reddit
Still, take the precedent, millions of American citizens left to rot for months at a time under the current president in the last administration. He doesn't strike me as less likely to do it again
roberttheiii@reddit
I agree. Especially for blue states. That said people living on the island can’t actually vote for president. And I think their infrastructure is even more chewed gum and popsicle sticks than ours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_voting_rights_in_Puerto_Rico
JWyszn@reddit
Sure, but take Texas for instance, theyre fucked just because of long term economic incentives, more people are leaving the grid, putting a rising share of costs on each dwindling customer, it's a death spiral, and Texas isn't connected to the grid in any other state. Do the math
mavrik36@reddit
Katrina comes to mind, maybe not the far reaches of northern Louisiana but certainly the major population centers
FeedDue9966@reddit
Mississippi was the hardest hit from Katrina. South Mississippi was out of power for weeks. Georgia power is who got us back on grid. We were 45 minutes from landfall. It was so hot, God it was hot. From Biloxi, Gulfport, and surrounding areas all the way up to Brookhaven and close to Natachez was out for a week. She covered a lot of ground. We had to drive all the way to Tuscaloosa, Alabama for more gas for generators. Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and a few surrounding states will be ok for extended power outages. It doesn't get cold here so winter we would be fine. But, running out of everything like batteries and ways to check weather if a supercell hit and people collect water get hit with a twister would be bad. Mass injuries, very little food and limited water. I worry more about the north. You don't much grit up there. When they come down here to hunt, I'm surprised some of them know how to tie their own shoes.
ThatBadFeel@reddit
Stay down there, then. God’s country is up here. He backs winners.
calabazadelamuerte@reddit
I was in Mobile, Al during Katrina. We weren’t hit as bad as New Orleans but there were pockets of our city without power into mid-October (almost 6 weeks). My neighborhood was down for about 2.5. There were heavy curfews and some troublemakers but honestly most people came together in amazing ways at that time to help out, sharing and trading what they had.
Hour-Personality-734@reddit
Parts of the Carolinas lost power for a month - 6 weeks 2 years ago due to flooding. Spouses SIL is a lineman and was on the road for the entire month making lotsa OT.
EnvironmentalOwl4361@reddit
5 miles from me was out from September 27 - last week of January.
AppropriateCattle69@reddit
Had family there as well. But in this scenario it’s a little different because while yes, they lost power, surrounding areas did not and were able to quickly send help. If several complete states lost power at the same time that help wouldn’t arrive and would be much less effective since it would have to cover a much larger area.
Pecancreaky@reddit
Puerto Rico
XeroEnergy270@reddit
There was an ice storm in 2008 that took out power across several states for weeks, and many residents didn't get power back for months.
OperationFucksToGive@reddit
Early-Series-2055@reddit
The cause of the outage needs to be considered. In the US, natural disasters have been localized with those affected knowing that help would eventually arrive.
MrHoopersDead@reddit
Uh, Ted Koppel would like to have a word with you: https://www.amazon.com/Lights-Out-Cyberattack-Unprepared-Surviving/dp/0553419986
f33@reddit
Be better if cell networks went out for 2-3 weeks. That'd be a real test
Kabouki@reddit
That would probably improve things. Lol
Think_Cupcake6758@reddit
Grab a beer, sit back and enjoy the show
YetAnotherIteration@reddit
Head to the Winchester, grab a pint and wait for this all to blow over.
MissDebbie420@reddit
Go to Mum's, kill Phill, grab Liz
go2wolf@reddit
TOP COMMENT 👍👍👍👍👍
MrBrawn@reddit
I need to grab some more panels.
KlausVonMaunder@reddit
I need to grab more beers...
trippfl@reddit
Let's not forget the whiskey.
booty_fewbacca@reddit
https://www.aliexpress.us/item/3256809335964040.html?gatewayAdapt=glo2usa4itemAdapt
Think_Cupcake6758@reddit
I need to grab some, too. Thanks for the reminder
Ncwreck@reddit
“One second after”
Wild-Drive-1601@reddit
Great book series
Basic-Tangerine-6465@reddit
What series?
LoneBear1@reddit
One Second After by William R. Forstchen.
CommiRhick@reddit
Life as we knew It by Susan Beth Pfeffer is one of my favorite novels growing up.
Looks to be something similar
LizzieCLems@reddit
Oof panhandle.
Tsukuba-Boffin@reddit
I listened to interviews of people who experienced the New York black out in 1977 (most had been older teens or in their 20s when it happened). One guy was at a park with his friends but when they realized something big was going down they headed home. He remembered all the shop keepers along the street were rushing around and slamming down their gates and metal shutters because they knew the looting sh*t was about to hit the fan. In some situations it doesn't take people long at all. I'm as prepared for different scenarios as I can be but since I'm at more of an advantage bugging in than out my worst case is some idiot burns down the apartment building I live in during an extended power outage doing something stupid.
brianhofmann@reddit
That's true. A power outage lasting two to three weeks probably couldn't happen, but honestly, even just two or three hours would be a total disaster.
RoamingRivers@reddit
This theory holds water.
Skwonkie_@reddit
72 hours before chaos breaks out in a situation like that.
BigBlueWookiee@reddit
Mine is a two part disaster.
First, the entire country or world becomes a nanny state. Where big brother provides everything in a fairly meaningful way. No one is without basic necessities: food, shelter, health case and entertainment. Society becomes completely reliant on big government. No land is for sale because it is all owned and allocated by "The People". So there is really no opportunity to prep, homestead, or create a safe space. But, most see it as not a big deal because everything is take care of. AI, drones and robots do all of the work, and the economy adjusts for humans to just enjoy and consume.
Then the real SHTF scenario. A solar flare or similar shuts everything down. No massive destruction, just a mass of people that forgot how to take care of themselves.
And, we are not too far off from that now. How many of us know a story about someone that cannot figure out how to change a tire? Or can barely cook without a microwave? Look at the "life hack" videos on YouTube - how many are (or should be) common sense - like how to use a can opener. Worse are the ones that completely miss the mark but THINK they are onto something big.
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
Then there are the ones who would probably not be able to survive more than a month or two without their pocket sized magic moving picture machines (AKA, smart phones). Hundreds of millions of deer caught in the headlights.
BigBlueWookiee@reddit
Exactly this. We're a society of cyborgs - it's just that the robotics are not implanted.... yet.
EarthScavenger@reddit
If any continent suffers from a large volcanic eruption that would cover the skies in ashes for months, it would decimate crops and be awful.
C-Alucard231@reddit
the absolutely worst case scenario would be an extinction level event.
earth impact, fried by a GRB, ect.
nuclear war, power grid down, ect none of that will take out the species as a whole. But there are still many other great filters we face that if not properly handled now or prepared for, end with the extinction of the human races.
DLIVERATOR@reddit
Have you ever seen the movie, Melancholia or These Final Hours? I think extinction level events are probably the worst. Absolutely nothing you can do about it, we're done type of events.
etherlinkage@reddit
Long term loss of waste collection, second would be loss of sewer service in a large city.
random-khajit@reddit
Yes. My BIL asked once why we have so many jugs of water stored. Its mainly because we're on well water and when the power goes, so does the water. Told him that when that happens the toilet situation gets real unpleasant fast. He'd never ever been in a situation where he'd had to consider that.
BearCat1478@reddit
Can you not put a manual pump to it or a battery operated one just in case?
Country_bloke100@reddit
Manual pump won't keep house taps at pressure for very long at all, you'd be out there pumping every time someone washed there hands.
Battery operated pumps might exist but they're short term. A 600w pump will burn through 120AH of lithium in just 48 hours of normal house use (roughly)
Unless you have a head ta k to gravity feed to the house, so you Cna manually pump a heap on one go, it's not feasible. And even then you would be pumping for hours and hours.
That said, it is possible, I've done it for my tank water with a combination of batteries, solar and a mains charger. I explained in more detail responding to the original comment.
BearCat1478@reddit
Thanks for the explanation. I do appreciate it and was curious of the feasibility. We are new to prepping and are literally up that creek and no boat let alone paddles but we are starting and doing more than we started last time we started 😉
Country_bloke100@reddit
TLDR: Camping stores sell all you need to keep pumped house water fully off grid capable. And it's all plug an play.
We are completely reliant on rain/tank water, pumped to the house (gravity fed tank isn't possible on our property because the house is at the absolute upper portion of the proper)
We used a generator to run the water pump during power outages, but I recently repirposed my 4x4 fridge set up to create an UPS system for the water pump.
Water pump runs off an inverter, that draws power from 120AH lithium battery 24/7
Battery has a mains power smart charger to minimise depth of discharge, but I've also got like 700w of solar now also feeding it. Just basic camping panels pre wired with anderson plugs.
Even with it also running a 35L fridge 24/7, and running the sceptic pump for a few hours every few days if we lost mains power for that long, the set up is basically fully self sufficient without mains power outside of winter.
In winter without mains power topping the battery up, we would likely have to just run the major water uses like baths and stuff during the day (we also have a roof solar tank so we still get hot water during the daytime without power, so long as the water pump is running)
It's not hard to do, and can all be done with plug and play stuff from Camping stores.
Ruthless4u@reddit
One of the many things a lot of people don’t consider.
No waste removal disease spreads rapidly, overwhelming our already overburdened healthcare system.
No country could handle that.
SunLillyFairy@reddit
Yes, people all over the world have handled it for eons. But you make a good point because most people who live in cities, even small ones, have no idea what to do with their own waste. With no property to bury it... where does it go? Most don't have the supplies or knowledge to make emergency toilets and dispose of waste.
You never see piles of shit and overflowing bathrooms on those apocalypse movies... but if toilets stop working in cities... it would be bad.
neighh@reddit
Other than all the countries that have handled that ofc
Spicy_Possum_@reddit
I don't think it would be that bad - there are several major cities outside the US that have had WM workers on prolonged strike (months+) without disease issues despite waste pileups.
RedJerzey@reddit
Think about the southwest and their water issues. No water, no sewer. Double trouble.
TacTurtle@reddit
A major earthquake destroying the water, sewage, and highway system to a major metro area like Los Angeles.
Very difficult to move enough food and drinking water in or out of the city on a few damaged highways.
Wiricus@reddit
I think this is a rea underappreciated situation, especially in cities
SecretOscarOG@reddit
Wait, we're not prepping for zombies anymore?
Party-Cranberry4143@reddit
Zombies run the country
DeafHeretic@reddit
Global thermonuclear war on a MAD level (moving to the southern hemisphere - e.g. S. America would mitigate the impact).
A severe Miyake Event from a "nearby" super-nova (or something similar), or a severe long lasting CME from our own sun.
Large comet/meteor collisions with following "debris" resulting in multiple hits around the globe (ala Shoemaker-Levy 9 style).
I am not prepping for any of these as they would cause a mass extinction on the level that I doubt most life on the planet would not survive.
I am prepping for the regular winter power outages, wind/ice/snow storms we get here (PNW). Volcano eruptions (last one was \~45 years ago). Cascadian Subduction Zone earthquake (every 400-500 years or so). Mostly natural disasters. Also civil unrest, economic disruptions, etc. Also, forest fires - this year we have a very low snowpack and expect a dry summer - 6 years ago I had to evacuate due to a local human caused forest fire.
akjasf@reddit
Worst case scenario?
Treat it as science fiction but 50-70% of the world population who took an experimental injection in years 2021-2022 will reveal the experiment's result when the cell towers amp up their frequencies.
Ferritin nanoparticle compositions and methods to modulate cell activity
"A pharmaceutical composition comprising ferritin nanoparticles that are selective for a temperature sensitive channel or receptor, and which ferritin nanoparticles can be remotely activated in a cell type of interest, wherein the ferritin nanoparticle is a ferritin fusion protein."
https://patents.google.com/patent/US10786570B2/en?oq=U.S.+10786570B2
I'm hoping for the best and nothing happens while people eat cleaner, exercise more and detox themselves.
Up2nogud13@reddit
Absolute worst? Obviously an all out nuclear war. No contest.
AlphaDisconnect@reddit
A tooth infection. That goes into your sinus. Then your brain. Not only will you die. But it will hurt the whole time.
SunLillyFairy@reddit
Antibiotics. Folks need to have antibiotics, and a back-up of any meds they rely on. I'm not one for self treatment. I am concerned about a world shortage of antibiotics and other critical, common meds. (Insulin, BP meds, blood thinners, anesthesia, asthma meds, seizure meds). If a doc or dentist tells you that you need an antibiotic for a tooth infection (or anything else), but you can't get your Rx filled, you are in trouble. Folks don't realize that if for some reason we can't get vital Rx ingredients from China, or finished pills from India, we'd be SCREWED. Don't take it from me, do your research on it. There are MANY scenarios where one or the other would stop producing, or refuse to manufacture/ship for certain countries, or have some sort of transportation block. Right now it all flows well because it's a money maker... but it has a lot of vulnerability. Experts have openly warned for years that the US has no back-up plan for a scenario like this. So if you don't have your Jase Case (or equivalent) go get one. It doesn't take a SHTF anywhere near your corner of the world for this to affect you.
StrangeCurrency8154@reddit
Antibiotics won’t do anything without a lab test to tell you which antibiotics to administer.
SunLillyFairy@reddit
Not usually... every time my kids had an ear ache or infected tooth their doctors gave them amoxicillin. When I got a sinus infection, doxycycline, when I got pneumonia, z-pack worked well. So those seem like reasonable ones to have on hand. And rarely do our doctors do lab work for any of us before prescribing them.
I do think folks should get medical care whenever possible, self-diagnosis when it's not necessary is dumb, but (1) access to medical care does not equate to access to medications (2) the Jace case (and others) have some basic information on what to take and when, if one does find themselves unable to access medical care.
AlphaDisconnect@reddit
I will take the coin flip over my brain rotting.
StrangeCurrency8154@reddit
Ok! Less competition for me :)
Country_bloke100@reddit
I think the most realistic collapse will be economic contraction.
Caused by whatever, from war, pandemics, climate change, economic collapse, but likely a combination of some or all of the above.
Not mad Max or fallout level, I don't think that's realistic. More like worldwide trade being pulled back to essentials, cities becoming slums of local manufacturing, rural and regional areas becoming largely self reliant minus the few rare but important imports that are just too valuable for people not to risk sailing all over the world for. Fuel, machine parts, solar panels, batteries, ammunition, etc.
Governments still exist, but maintain relvence not through income tax if the grid and the like become so unstable, instead maintaining some authority and relvence through controlling any remaining power grid, and logistics lanes like shipping and rail.
But other capacities severely diminished.
Massive food shortages, limited access to clean water, etc.
I think worst case scenario is more like 1800s levels of local self reliance, combined with modern tech like solar and batteries.
Basically much more like collapses we've seen before in places like Venezuela or post soviet collapse.
Still bad, I think people underestimate how long people can live malnourished and drinking disgusting water. Whole populations around the world today live in slums drinking filthy water and eating things like Pag Pag. And they live long enough to continue reproducing.
So it's still a terrible existence for the majority of people. And even those that are prepared or live rural won't have the access to food we have now. But at least local farms should be able to keep local farmers markets and stuff like that ticking over. Even at reduces capacity. Many likely working in local physical labour jobs if specialised careers are no longer viable.
So still horrible for millions. But people will adapt.
Worship_Strength@reddit
NO ONE SURVIVES NUCLEAR WAR. I'm always shocked to see people prepping and thinking they will see a bright flash, a mushroom cloud over the neighboring city and then they can bug in/out. SAC Protocols and Retaliation was birthed by Curtis LeMays WW2 tactic of Saturation Bombing. This tactic won WW2 because round the clock bombing campaigns were essentially "drop as many bombs as possible on the infrastructure that allows the enemy population and war machine to function." Nothing precision, just Accuracy through volume. In a Nuclear Exchange Scenario even Tertiary target areas are getting multiple if not dozens of nukes dropped on it. Not 1 cloud but 15, 20, 25 clouds of airburst or ground burst or both, blanketing an area that the enemy deems necessary to take off the board. There is a reason Russia, China and the USA have thousands of nuclear warheads and multiple ways to deliver them.
Libdemic@reddit
The very real societal collapse that will accompany climate change. It's already happening. Our 'civilization' (at least in the United State) will continue to putter along as oligo-tech managed fascism/kleptocracy.
RikkiLostMyNumber@reddit
Worst case is five things.
1. Weaponized plague with 99% lethality.
2. Global thermonuclear warfare.
3. A near-space gamma ray burst.
4. Collision with a large asteroid or other foreign body.
5. Runaway AI (or actual singularity) that decides humans have to go. That would be over very quickly.
All are 100% "sayonara!" to humanity, and 3 and 4 to all life on Earth.
hung-games@reddit
I agree with your points but would like to add a full Yellowstone (or comparable) eruption
RikkiLostMyNumber@reddit
Hmm. I don't know. We would have an awful lot of time to prepare for the eventual famines. Like, no planetary EMP or worldwide power and comms destruction. Not saying it wouldn't be devastating, but we as a species would come through just fine.
Unless you're suggesting something else? Like an explosion so huge it fucked up the Earth's orbit? I don't know if that's possible.
Guy-Fawks-Mask@reddit
I think there is an EMP or power/comms destruction element to a volcanic or geothermal eruption. The shear volume of dust and debris would create a black sky for hundreds of miles, if not thousands. You wouldn’t be able to see, breathe, cars wouldn’t have enough oxygen to run, radio signals would be interfered with dramatically, satellites would be hidden and unable to reliably communicate, water sources contaminated, planes would lose GPS signals, etc.
hung-games@reddit
I live near St Louis and we would theoretically be in the dispersal territory of the ash. I would utter decimate a larch chunk of the country.
randynumbergenerator@reddit
Oh yeah, a fir amount of the Continental US would be felled, or wood have to make like a tree and leave .
hung-games@reddit
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/yellowstone-eruption-how-supervolcano-explosion-will-unfold
righthandedlefty69@reddit
Time to prepare, perhaps, but we as a society don’t prioritize preparing for eventuals.
RangerRedskin@reddit
Your first point is the most unlikely to ever occur. Nothing natural would achieve 99% lethality. Evolution selects for whatever helps a pathogen reproduce and spread most effectively.
A weaponized pathogen that’s 99% fatal would be insanely difficult to create. Also, a pathogen that kills nearly everyone would collapse transportation, travel, and human contact patterns pretty quickly which would limit the spread of it.
What is a realistic possibility is a weaponized pathogen with a high transmissibility rate that has a single digit percentage mortality rate as it would still kill millions.
Friendly_Reference10@reddit
If everyone who catches it dies they won’t be out spreading it.
tankton@reddit
It doesn't need to kill people, making them infertile is enough.
Spicy_Possum_@reddit
I don't know of a single infection that reliably does this to men or women. Mumps can rarely cause orchitis which can sometimes cause infertility issues but developing an infectious agent that can cause infertility would be done from scratch and insanely difficult to make something neverbeforeseen in nature.
Green-Match-4286@reddit
Depends on the incubation time.
If a slow-burning pathogen caused 90% mortality, was contagious after 2-3 days, but didn't show symptoms in the host for 60 days, the world would be in for a very bad time.
LizzieCLems@reddit
I’m clinging to my 2000 gmc Sonoma for that very reason.
Never_Really_Right@reddit
Add hostile aliens.
Until Tom Cruise, Mel Gibson or Wil Smith tell us hiw to defeat them, then it's eat or be eaten. Literally.
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
"How to Serve Man"
Ruthless4u@reddit
I still have a super soaker.
RikkiLostMyNumber@reddit
I don't think so. I don't think there's any threat at all to humanity from any extraterrestrial life form, from monsters to microbes. I'm not saying they don't exist, I'm saying that given the nature of space and time, we have no realistic chance whatsoever of encountering them.
Gryrck@reddit
I would say if they had the tech to travel that far then making anything they could ever want or need is easier than fighting a conventional war against us.
Critical_Rock4038@reddit
Good list. The AI one I’m not too concerned about since they’re just computers and we can pull the plug.
Ncwreck@reddit
The good news is Hollywood has given us multiple iterations of each to study. :)
Alita-Gunnm@reddit
False vacuum collapse.
RikkiLostMyNumber@reddit
Weird, I was just watching a YT video about that. And, yes, add that to the list, but it should be under some overall heading like "physics freaks the fuck out."
Alita-Gunnm@reddit
Yeah, it's not a prepper concern, because you can't prep for it.
FatsMasterson@reddit
I don't know what the worst would be, but a grid-down wet bulb event is the most existentially frightening to me.
AGreasyPorkSandwich@reddit
As a Houstonian I feel like ive dealt with that a few times.
oregon3@reddit
What is a wet bulb?
Dufusbroth@reddit
A wet-bulb event is a weather condition where it is so hot and humid that the human body can no longer cool itself through sweating
shitwolf45@reddit
being trapped in a Celine Dion concert
TheRealBunkerJohn@reddit
Any scenario where the grid goes down, and stays down (United States)
That's a 90%+ fatality rate within a year. The different ways that could happen just alter the equation to various directions (Nukes, cyber, EMP, etc.)
CreasingUnicorn@reddit
I see this 90% number tossed around a lot, but where is any data to back it up? Sure i bet inner cities would get very violent quickly, but aside from that i just dont see this. Even full scale nuclear war is estimated to kill about 40% of the population, which is a lot, but not anywhere near close to 90%.
Hell even the black death killed about 60% of europe, which is still magnitudes less than 90%.
I get that modern society is very dependent on electricity, but that number is absurdly large.
Tardis1938@reddit
I think it fall in the statistical probability threshold for this type of situation but its ment as a no matter what 10% of the population will survive.
TheRealBunkerJohn@reddit
Yup! It has been mentioned multiple times in regards to a successful EMP attack: https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/l00cz5/emp_reference_document/ It's a "worse case" casualty figure- but I've learned very little that would challenge it.
CreasingUnicorn@reddit
So those documents you linkedare a tough read, but even so those documents have a lot of experts basically admiting that they simply dont have enough data points to make an accurate assesment of the situation and came up with the 90% number as a worst case scenario estimate based on vibes essentially.
TheRealBunkerJohn@reddit
It's the best figures official figured we have from a group of experts- and honestly, I've not learned anything either during my Master's degree or 10+ years of preparedness to disprove that 90% number. If anything, I've only learned how vulnerable we are, and that it could be even higher.
nakedonmygoat@reddit
I can see 90% within 3-5 years.
First are the people who die outright, if it's a nuke. Next are the people who need electricity for medical reasons. This will be ongoing as people who develop conditions that need modern medical care can't get it. Even those who simply rely on a daily pill or two will be vulnerable when the factories making them stop and there's no more supply chain anyway.
Then we have people in very hot areas dying of climate conditions. While people have lived in hot climates since forever, few live in homes designed for the climate anymore, and they'll die of heatstroke. Colder climates also don't always have homes truly designed for long-term cold. Folks who've been relying on electricity, gas, or heating oil to keep their homes warm are going to struggle. Those with wood-burning stoves or working fireplaces will be fighting other people for wood.
Where will the potable water come from without water treatment plants? How will waste be removed? How will food be grown and distributed at the scale that is needed?
Worldwide, 90% might be unrealistic, when you consider countries where people aren't as energy-dependent as the US, Western Europe, Australia, NZ, etc. But any way you slice it, a huge number of people would die within the first few years of a severe long-term "no power" scenario.
CreasingUnicorn@reddit
Im not doubting that there would be sifnificant suffering and casualties during a grid down scenario, but 9 out of 10 people dying is exponentially worse than any relevant data points that we do have, i just dont see that happening.
Also, if we are talking about multiple year long "grid down" scenarios, it seems like you are assuming that people wouldn't adapt and find ways to repair at least part of the energy infrastructure. This isnt a fantasy novel where electricity just stops working everywhere forever, people arent just going to lie down and starve or freeze, they are going to figure out solutions with available resources as we have seen throughout human history.
GloriousDawn@reddit
I feel like NZ is a weird inclusion in that list because they have nearly no strategic military value. Most of the southern hemisphere will be spared from nuclear strikes, which remain the most probable cause for grid collapse.
War_Hymn@reddit
Probably has something to do with the drastic drop in modern food production if the power goes out.
The US had a lot of farmland, but only a small fraction of the population knows how to actually farm. Even fewer will know how to efficiently farm without access to things like heavy farm machinery or man-made fertilizers/pesticides. Bulk of casualties will come in the first and second year from people just trying figure how to grow enough food for winter once they realize the grocery stores aren't restocking anymore and their backyard gardens isn't going to cover the 2000 calories they need for all 365 days of the year.
Modern crop yields on average are also about 3-6 times higher than their pre-industrial equivalents depending on the crop, simply because modern farmers have access to things we take for granted like synthetic fertilizer or hybridized crops. We're likely to lose these conveniences in a lights out scenario. Then instead of 100 bushels of wheat per acre, you're down to 20 or 10 bushel per acre (being farmed by hand). So even for those that have the land and seeds, its going to be tough going.
go2wolf@reddit
Nuclear Winter. Estimates are that 90 % world's population. 😵👎 No food = No people 😱
Phobix@reddit
User checks out
patssle@reddit
The grid going down is the scariest because it's so realistically possible from multiple potential sources causing it. It's impossible to plan for because nobody is storing an infinite amount of food and water. And as the anarchy sets in, every person has to decide if they're willing to kill another person in defense or to get food. And if you do have supplies, somebody will come for it.
TheRealBunkerJohn@reddit
Precisely. It's one of the most terrifyingly effective ways to collapse a country (the U.S. in particular) without firing a shot. Turn off the power, and the population will destroy itself.
Boo-Radleys-Scissors@reddit
90% seems a bit high, but probably not as inflated as I hope.
TheRealBunkerJohn@reddit
It's the high range of a worse-case casualty estimate- and I haven't learned of much to disprove it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/l00cz5/emp_reference_document/
RangerRedskin@reddit
The 90% figure is on the extreme end of estimates. George Baker, who was the senior advisor to the Congressional EMP Commission, said at least half of the US population would die within a year and he’s seen estimates that go up to 90%.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-114hhrg96952/html/CHRG-114hhrg96952.htm
davidm2232@reddit
I'm pretty sure that was the general estimate from the emp commission
GrumpySquirrel2016@reddit
Carrington event massive EMP. It would destroy most electrical equipment - no phones, no police radios, no functioning communications. The computers telling the dialysis machine to run it the ships where to go. In a best case scenario, I think it would take years to a decade to rebuild and there would be widespread chaos in the interim.
Old_Dragonfruit6952@reddit
Nuclear war . Closer than ever. MAD is welcome.. we will never recover from one. FEMA is charged to keep Govt going only in this case ... I am blessed to live near An LNG terminal, an airport and wonderfully straight runs of highway . It'll be over in a blink of an eye for me.
Pretzel387@reddit
The worst case scenario I have nightmares about looks not unlike the Rwandan genocide. We're divided enough.
doecliff@reddit
Wide spread, long term, power outage. Everything else will fall with it.
wageslave2022@reddit
We are standing on the edge of the abyss, there are reasons why everyone connected with 2 nickels to rub together are building doomsday bunkers. The controlled media is pumping out fluff and short horror stories as a distraction from what is happening now. My basic (fucking around on the Internet) research points to a long term economic collapse. People are pulling their hair out over $5 gas, wait until $10 gas hits the pumps. Check out the projected wheat harvest numbers for this upcoming season. We can't print our way out of this great depression, once the monthly check stops going out to the unemployed, retired, handicap and welfare queens things are going to go downhill fast. Civil unrest, riots, burning and looting curfew, martial law. The governments response to this will not be more stimulus checks this time.. Mix in the festering resentment from the big " Fuck you, none of my friends in the E files will face any consequences" and things are going to get wild.
leisurechef@reddit
Literally an oil shortage
Kinetic_Strike@reddit
Storm blows in, our roof needs to be replaced, the furnace finally dies during the freeze afterwards, and the car needs major repairs...all at once. That's my fear.
I'm down for Zerglings, slow zombies, or Red Dawn, though.
Nukes, hopefully we're part of the mushroom cloud and meeting St. Peter at the pearly gates.
WonderfulScar453@reddit
Scenarios that require a lot of running
adriayna@reddit
I think right now the biggest issue is water loss from data centers, not having any drinkable water long-term is going to be destructive to a lot of communities. As somebody has a farm, this is pretty terrifying. Just seeing it all over the country.
Cornishchappy@reddit
A deadly infectious disease with a long incubation period.
Rooster_NCx@reddit
World War z zombie outbreak lol
Successful-Swim-3708@reddit
We are seeing it now! Wild meat sources bring infected as well people with modified ticks brought to you by Bill Gates
SignificantNorth9972@reddit
Spending decades being preoccupied with thousands of unlikely scenarios that you “prep” for by using the most significant portion of your time and money on only to realize you missed out on living your life to the best possible outcome.
DontBeMistaken@reddit
As of present, Ebola. If you compare this current outbreak and its time frame compared to the 2016 outbreak, the number of cases per months/weeks since declaration are faaaaar more. If that shit decides to become mainstream or mutate for the fuck of it, the worlds gonna become a contagion/outbreak 19956 nightmare.
WaffleHouseGladiator@reddit
A Carrington event would be pretty bad.
techyguru@reddit
Will be pretty bad.
Zero7CO@reddit
A Carrington-level or greater event has a 0.8% chance happening in any given year and it’s been 167 years where once it’s happened. We are overdue and the sun has been acting very erratic the last couple of years.
Yellow_Triangle@reddit
The good thing about statistics, in this case, is that prior outcomes do not influence the chance of it happening going forward. Basically just because it hasn't happened in the last 167 years, does not make it more likely for it to happen in the coming years.
That the sun is acting erratic is a whole different thing and could spell trouble.
TheIrishWanderer@reddit
Is there a report that says it's guaranteed?
jacksraging_bileduct@reddit
Everything is eventual.
TheIrishWanderer@reddit
When infinity is present, yes. But the planet and the sun are not infinite.
jacksraging_bileduct@reddit
Compared to our time on the planet it might as well be.
TheIrishWanderer@reddit
If you want to talk about perspective, sure. But perspective and mathematics are very different things.
davidm2232@reddit
Its mathematically very probable. But it's basically random so it could happen in a month, it could happen in 1000 years.
BallsOutKrunked@reddit
I mean, probability math. In our live times? Small chance. Before the sun envelopes the earth? 99.999% chance.
CapmBlondeBeard@reddit
It’s actually not that low. A 2014 NASA study estimated 12% for a decade (source). Another 2019 study from some mathematicians put it at ~2% for a decade (source). It’s probably somewhere in between and the reason for the discrepancy is likely a fundamental difference between pure statistical modeling and predicting solar output based on astrophysics/etc.
So just doing some basic math that would put the probability over the next 30 years as 3% - 32%.
I never really took it that seriously until running the numbers for this comment but I may after this haha
Objective_Onion6331@reddit
Earth’s protection from said events (magnetic field) is down somewhere about 30%, which is why there’s such an uptick of auroras & so far South of their typical range. And it’s getting weaker exponentially. It won’t take a direct X80 flare to do what the Carrington Event did. Only a matter of time.
Objective_Onion6331@reddit
Correct
grislyfind@reddit
Good news: based on tree ring history, the Carrington Event isn't the worst geomagnetic storm in history. Estimates are that some previous events were ten to a hundred times stronger. Hopefully by the time one of those comes along we'll have enough decentralised solar energy and storage to save civilisation.
Tha_Dude_Abidez@reddit
How is that good news?
ErinRedWolf@reddit
Good news, everyone: However bad it is, IT CAN ALWAYS BE WORSE. 🥳🎉
CanadaFootyFan@reddit
Because all of this won’t be for nothing.
OutlawCaliber@reddit
My preps are for everything from a winter storm with longer term power outage to balls to the wall war with China/Russia. I expect war with China, considering their thing for Taiwan, and our thing for them not to have it. That will likely come with infrastructure and civilians up to government mass scale cyber attacks. Worst case I can imagine? Nuked cities, two weeks indoors, loss of infrastructure and distribution chain, etc. That would be devastating more so to the West. Our people are soft and live on the distribution chain. Civilian casualties would be crazy.
Spicy_Possum_@reddit
Agree that a war with China would be bad news, but, I just don't think it's likely. I strongly thing China wants to avoid war with the US at all cost and they will avoid a move on Taiwan until there is a US leader who wouldn't support Taiwan militarily if there were a hostile takeover.
Strenue@reddit
Two weeks without the supply chain will lay most of the US to waste
OutlawCaliber@reddit
Exactly. That would be hell for several weeks.
kaishinoske1@reddit
Blackouts and water shortages due to data centers. Hacking will get easier, which one would dismiss things. But the problem is if everyone has to register their personal information to access the net. Some hacker gets a hold of that information. All they would need to do is look up names of people to their job duties if it;s for critical infrastructure. Like people posting their jobs on linked in with their first and last name in LinkedIn for example. Escalation privileges can be done from there and that’s the easiest way that would happen.
Wheresthelambsauce07@reddit
You can spend all your money to prepare for worst case scenario, live in perpetual angst from a future of doom. OR you can be reasonably prepared for everything, including a future where this doesn't happen. Lots of peopel have died preparing their whole life for something that never happened.
randynumbergenerator@reddit
Also, realistically in any true worst case scenario you're only buying yourself a bit more time (or more realistically, a chance of having a bit more time).
Wheresthelambsauce07@reddit
TBH the best prep for any doomsday scenario: a pack of quality smokes and a bottle of your choice of hard alcohol...
Tokenchick77@reddit
I think this is really the goal of prepping. If there is a nuclear war or something else at that level, unless you have a self-sufficient bunker (like all the billionaires), there really isn't much you can do. At that point, it's more about luck than anything else. And it's hard to know if surviving makes you one of the lucky ones.
RiffRaff028@reddit
Absolute worst-case scenario that is survivable? Because a gamma ray burst or large comet impact could completely wipe out all life on Earth in minutes. There is no preparation for events of that scale.
Assuming you mean a survivable worst-case scenario, that would be a full-scale nuclear exchange between all of the nuclear powers, in my opinion. It's survivable, but it would by and large kick us back to the late 19th/early 20th century in terms of living standards.
jwed420@reddit
I live next to 5 military bases and a main nuclear target, so in a best case scenario where I have some notice ahead of time, I can probably make it one or two comfy weeks in the mountains until I have to take drastic measures to survive.
Realistically me and everyone else in town will be vaporized before we know what happened.
mrfixdit@reddit
Being far away from home alone and not being able to know if my family is ok
effinmike12@reddit
Famine. Famine brings disease. People turn into cannibals. Lots of death. Its horrible. Check out the Russian famine. There were propaganda posters made that translate to "don't eat the children" because it was a real problem. There are pictures of during the famine of people selling body parts. Its all pretty much NSFW.
Its the famine as a result of war or massive casualty event that scares me more than anything. A man with starting children can be pretty desperate.
matunos@reddit
Meteor strike kills off 99% of living species, including humans.
cantiludan@reddit
Absolute worse case... Not a single event but a series of events. Society is ok at dealing with a single event. Where we tend to fail is when multiple things happen at once. Already have multiple wars draining government resources around the globe. Corona, Hantavirus from the cruise ship, Ebola outbreak in Africa reported a few days ago.... You can only stretch the rubber band so far before it snaps...
nakedonmygoat@reddit
Underrated comment. I can't think of any large-scale collapse that didn't have multiple causes. Historically, it's nearly always been weak leadership when one or more of the following also occurs: war, drought, crop failure (may or may not be drought-related), and epidemic/pandemic.
Danish-Woman@reddit
Hello 👋🏻 I’m writing here from Denmark 🇩🇰 I’m prepping for a weather situation ( I live by the North Sea), for blackouts and for a possible virus or war. Now we will probably have groceries prices up. Please remember also to have everything for sanitation and First aid supplies 🫶🏻
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
Tak for dit bidrag. (Hope I got that right).
Danish-Woman@reddit
Yes it was perfect 🤩 thank you
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
Reddit kept showing me the English version so I didn't think it actually posted. But Tak.
Knight_of_r_noo@reddit
A slow change from abundance to scarcity. Things go from higher prices to unavailable over the course of decades. Many of my preps are interested for Tuesday so restocking after the event is over is part of the plan. What happens when it's gradual? When is it time to dip into the deep pantry when it's unknown if it can be replenishes?
armacitis@reddit
You restock first then rotate out the old supplies. You know you can't replenish it when it happens.
Sharp_Oral@reddit
It’s time to go from self resilience as a consumer, to self resilience as a producer.
Step 1 is a victory garden.
Prestigious-Copy-494@reddit
Provided the neighbors don't crash our gardens.
Worth_Range1563@reddit
Luckily those were the decoy gardens
Fragrant-Fix9642@reddit
lol
Pecancreaky@reddit
Gotta get the neighbors in on it to make their own
lr99999@reddit
A victory garden would be after things settle down. Any garden or livestock or farm will be stripped while people are hungry.
Sharp_Oral@reddit
The caloric productivity from a victory garden is less important than the mindset change it produces.
Thoughts go from “what do I buy so that I can be ready?” to “what am I building?”
Boo-Radleys-Scissors@reddit
As my deep pantry has reached the point where I can keep my family fed for a couple months, this question has started to nag at my mind.
Think_Cupcake6758@reddit
That’s when we ramp up our compost, our gardens and our ability to preserve our food.
Odd_Ostrich6038@reddit
I think adaptability is the name of the game.
Street_Tiger98@reddit
This seems to be in the highest probability range in my estimation and also fairly severe on the risk register overtime. Therefore, it’s probably quite high in the risk matrix when it comes to generally survival events.
hummingbirdwhisp@reddit
Access to prescription medications always lurks in the back of my mind
Guncounterguy_556@reddit
Probably nuclear wasteland where the very air you breathe is poison. Can you imagine have to live with a gas mask/respirator for the majority of your day. Next one up would probably be the disaster in The Book of Eli.
No_Piccolo6337@reddit
I live in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, so I prepare for the earthquake.
funnysasquatch@reddit
Most people are preparing for their local natural disaster but it's more fun to talk about what would be like to be a hero in your own action movie - aka how I prepare for Doomsday.
If you were serious about preparing for Doomsday, you're much better off being involve in local emergency planning than arguing on Reddit.
You are going to increase your odds of surviving whatever Doomsday event you are worried about if you were integrated with the local PD, Fire, Medical, and other organizations like the Red Cross.
Sharp_Oral@reddit
What’s the worst? World war Z zombies.
Fuck that.
What’s probable? USA going full Rome…
MrBrawn@reddit
WWZ and 28 Days zombies can fuck right off.
mseuro@reddit
taking it to the fuckin dome after everything else in the house if they're fazt
CanadaFootyFan@reddit
I prefer my z’s slow and ambling thank you very much.
Present_Figure_4786@reddit
Yup! The Night of the Living Dead kind.
Ncwreck@reddit
Green your fiddle, i smell fire.
DuhTocqueville@reddit
You’re too good for the arena? Look at this guy here, too good for the arena.
Sharp_Oral@reddit
I mean - entertaining the mob is a purpose… the Roman aristocracy would probably argue it’s one of the most important purposes.
Friendly_Shopping286@reddit
tHaNk YoU dAddY taruMp!
Sharp_Oral@reddit
Whether you support Trump or hate him, he didn’t invent: polarization, distrust in institutions, anti-establishment anger, media fragmentation, populist resentment.
He exploited the conditions that already existed. Trump is Caesar, Iran is his Rubicon.
Cheers,
Friendly_Shopping286@reddit
Thank you Daddy Rush Limbaugh
Me4nowSEUSA@reddit
Well that’s not very friendly.
Rustee_Shacklefart@reddit
Loss of the USD as world reserve currency.
tomthebarbarian@reddit
Major earthquake in California that disrupts the water supply followed by the inevitable fires.
Objective_Onion6331@reddit
The worst? A technocratic hellscape where surveillance is everywhere, you don’t own anything, you’re corralled into 15 minute cities, live in a coffin apartment, are given mealworm rations, most of the wilderness is off limits & dissenters are hunted down by drones & armed boston dynamics robot dogs.
I do believe a CME/flare killshot is definitely inevitable, and while that would be “bad” for our civilization as it functions today, it would likely save us from my first paragraph. So there’s that.
darkriftx2@reddit
Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury does a pretty good job of laying out this kind of hellscape. I highly recommend it if you haven't read it.
Objective_Onion6331@reddit
Thanks I’ll check it out
Efficient_Wing3172@reddit
Worst case is being left with just the clothes on your back and you don’t know where to go….
sarazarah@reddit
Minimum 1.7C degree increase for this years El Niño and 2C degree increase for the one that follows. Eventually, after we’re dead, earth will reach minimum 10C degree warming. I recommend reading James E. Hansen’s papers.
Some_Guy106@reddit
The police state takeover is already happening, it's a bit too late to prepare. But I am preparing for the collapse afterward
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
Yeah. That's why I threw that one in. 👍
BadLighting@reddit
A global pandemic of something much more deadly than Covid, day a very virulent bird flu with measles-like communibility. That would see hospitals overwhelmed, supply lines gutted, garbage collection stopped, power outages. A lot like Covid but every element wild be worse and more severe with a lot more deaths.
AssumeImStupid@reddit
What we're seeing right now, but forever. Endless meat and resource grinder with no revolution, solution, or even goal for the grinders.
S_Serpent@reddit
Trump or Putin going in tantrum mode pushing the nukes button because they clearly are not winning the wars they started
kkinnison@reddit
false vacuum decay
nothing you can do. it could already be happening nearby and when it reaches us everything we know is gone.
poof
Excuse me, going to make a grilled cheese sandwich and not worry about something that might never happen, and I can do nothing to change
Frosteecat@reddit
Global Thermonuclear War.
Reasonable-Teach7155@reddit
CCP turns off everything and releases black clouds of AI driven drone swarms
darkriftx2@reddit
Steel Rain!
Wild-Drive-1601@reddit
The 1 moment after series. 1 Hour After 1 Day after
GodTroller@reddit
And emp or cme would not be anything close to anything a hurricane has done.
Most comms were still functioning. Vehicles operating, people with back up power working fine.
Emp or cme erases most of that.
Most emp safe items are useless, and so is alot of the testing. They are tested in optimal and very misleading conditions. It's the equivalent of spaying a submarine with water then claiming it's water tight. Because the left a water hose sprinkle for 3 days and no water got in. They don't test at the same energy levels, they test at a fraction of a percentage of it.
Wild-Drive-1601@reddit
I live in San Antonio. Theres a Level 4 hot lab on the other side of town where they work on viruses and the like. If something gets out there will be mass panic. As wife and I are in our 70s we may not be able to leave the area.
waffledestroyer@reddit
The robots take over and enslave humanity like we enslave animals in factory farms, and use our brains as energy efficient biological computer processors, keeping us alive for a long time using nanotechnology.
Inner-Confidence99@reddit
Grid goes down. Biggest worry. Then natural disasters- blizzard, ice storm, hurricane, tornadoes, dust storms.
The way things are going we could have another - dust bowl- farmers can’t plant.
MarsMonkey88@reddit
Part of what makes the worst case scenario the worst is it being a black swan event, something that never crossed our minds and for which we are not prepared.
Also, I think a really bad scenario would be two or more unrelated catastrophes at the same time. Like, a plague right before a catastrophic winter storm, or something.
I am not interesting in trying to survive every imaginable doomsday scenario. I am interested in weathering a normal to bad “Tuesday” event, without my pets suffering and without posing an unreasonable burden on others, so that community resources can be appropriately directed to the most vulnerable.
Euphorix126@reddit
Catastrophe where you live but everyone you've ever known is dead. You are seriously wounded and severely disabled in the event, though not enough for you to succumb to starvation or exposure. Loss of all civilization or structured society. Live to ripe old age without seeing more than a few people ever again. Discover some error that caused irreparable damage to your life's work right before dying alone while bleeding out over the course of 18 agonizing hours from a negligent discharge to the genitals. Oh, and you shit yourself at basically any point in the course of your day.
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
Wow. You ... ummm .... that's ... aaahh ... Just wow.
👍
CharmingMechanic2473@reddit
Nuclear war then no internet worldwide. We can’t just “go back” to how it was. No infrastructure to support that.
Willing_Chemical_113@reddit (OP)
Lol, and what percentage of the population do you estimate will be able to survive more than a month or two without their pocket sized magic moving picture machines?
Tight_Hedgehog_6045@reddit
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the Sun, taking out widespread power grids. Depends on the season and which side of the Earth is facing the Sun when it hits as to how serious it is. A big one like the Carrington Event in the 1800s would fuck us up properly.
go2wolf@reddit
Do us up...properly 😱🤣
jacksraging_bileduct@reddit
It would just take a few weeks without power and cell service before people are killing each other, that’s all it would take.
SunLillyFairy@reddit
I think yes and no. People kill each other today over cell phones and shelter... over trinkets and love affairs and power trips. And, violence and killing do tend to go up when resources are scare and law enforcement isn't available. But, there have been many, many, many disasters, world wide, that caused folks to live without modern comforts, or even without access to clean food and water, for extended periods of times (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes that disable entire cities for months) and they didn't all start killing each other like a bunch of rabid animals on the lose. There are great examples of communities taking care of each other when SHTF.
Just a few for fun: Hurricane Harvey and the Cajun Navy. The East Japan Triple Disaster. The Syrian War and the White Helmets. Just look at Palestine today - localized mutual aid is being run in the form of community kitchens, shared shelter, improvised medical care and water distribution. Are there some bad guys taking advantage... yep. Do you need to be able to defend yourself/your home... you bet. But there are always bad guys/gals... they are like a plague and they always seem to be around. It doesn't mean the humans can't figure out that working together pays off better than killing off the people you need to help you survive.
tibearius1123@reddit
High-altitude EMP. Lights out, semi-permanent destruction of electrical infrastructure.
MArkansas-254@reddit
For me, Grid collapse in the US is the highest likelihood catastrophic event. Whether by intent or natural causes, there would be no immediate loss of life and, therefore, a LOT more fighting for resources. It would impact every aspect of life.
cserskine@reddit
An asteroid, polar shift, multiple EMPs or Carrington event, or a global pandemic with a 50% mortality rate. All could be extinction level events.
obligatory_your_mom@reddit
I'm not prepared for it in any way, but if I were to prepare for any event, the worst case one would be a Carrington event.
anonymous2278@reddit
Nuclear war would be the worst, as there is no way to prepare for it, short of having a massive underground bunker prepared with a way to grow food and get water and power. Our meager props are not for any specific event, they’re just to hold us over for a month or two. I remember empty shelves during Covid and don’t want to experience that panic of not knowing where our next meal is coming from because there’s nothing to buy. The supply lines are shaky, trade agreements are in jeopardy and the govt is not helping. I’m just afraid of what happens when we can’t buy food anymore and we’re trying to hold off the worst as long as possible.
Connect-Type493@reddit
Also- covid was nowhere near how bad things could get. Some supermarkets had no toilet paper or pasta or bakers yeast . But you could get potatoes or rice or beans . Nobody starved as a result. Now if trucks stop moving and shelves are truly empty..
anonymous2278@reddit
We were able to scrounge up enough during Covid. It was bad but we made it work. But like I said, I don’t want to experience the panic of not being able to buy anything and starving as a result of our supply lines being compromised. That scares me. That is why we started prepping.
External_Wish_4457@reddit
Magnetic polar shift causing massive unsurvivable tidal waves and floods across the globe.
SunLillyFairy@reddit
What "could" be, or what do I actually think could happen? Serious question, because even though the odds are low, crazy shit could happen. But what do I actually think is unlikely but we could see... lots of stuff. Super virus, dirty bombs, crazy people causing havoc, air contaminator, even more extreme weather causing the kind of heat, flooding, wind or other that can take a person out pretty quick...
Tall_0rder@reddit
No chance of invasion, the USA is too big. Literally zero chance. Authoritarian police state takeover? Unlikely. The US government can barely organize its way out of a paper bag at this point and that goes for both parties (not saying both parties are the same by the way, just that our government is ineffectual), nuclear war is a possibility but decently unlikely given the players involved, and a massive natural disaster is certainly possible but would only impact a section of the country and not the entire thing. An infrastructure failure of multiple weeks in either water or power is probably the most likely to happen that would cause widespread loss of life.
NegotiationNo174@reddit
Let’s answer this so they can create our worst fear
TheLiveEditor@reddit
Whatever is the worst that I could imagine, could always be conceivably worse...
Next_Emphasis_9424@reddit
Read Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen. MAD is hands down the worst to me. Everything else I feel like I have some form of a shot at survival. The last survivors of Nuclear war will live their last months dying slowly of radiation poisoning and hunger, looking a blacked out nuclear winter sky or sitting in a bunker rotting til the lights eventually turn off. Survivors will get enough just enough time to think how we had it all and threw it away over to win some squabbling old people.
randynumbergenerator@reddit
Idk, my "everything else" includes AI rampancy and K-T Extinction-level meteor, for which my sole prep is to find my best bottle and enjoy it as long as I can.
kaderias@reddit
I imagine a post nuclear world being similar to “The Road”. Nothing I’d ever want to be around for.
Next_Emphasis_9424@reddit
The only winners in a nuclear war are the ones who won’t live to see its consequences. The only peace I have in living next to DC is I probably will get vaporized.
go2wolf@reddit
Other than an all out nuclear incineration, it would probably be a EMP attack that would take out the electrical grid AND take out radio, tv, Internet. Keep a radio, spare batteries stored. I have a small radio wrapped up in aluminum foil.
RichardBonham@reddit
Absolute worst case?
Large meteor strike swiftly and utterly destroying all life.
acertaingestault@reddit
"Everybody goes pretty quickly" is definitely not the worst case scenario
Select_Pilot4197@reddit
Yeah this actually a pretty win win scenario for all of us.
Zaliukas-Gungnir@reddit
Multiple tactical nuclear strikes in fall, followed by an excessive natural disaster like earth quake, forest fires or tsunami. All of that followed by an excessively harsh winter. Especially if it was packed into 3-4 months. In the state I am in they have lost water for a few weeks after forest fires because the waterways they take or store water were polluted as a result of the fires. Throw in a pandemic for good measure. LOL 😂
socalquestioner@reddit
Get out of the city to my parents in the country.
Plant lots of black eyed peas.
Start placing security features.
Ca2Alaska@reddit
SoCal. Massive earthquakes.
vibes86@reddit
I’m mostly at a few weeks of blackouts or a major food shortage at this point. If we’re at war, I’m hoping they have Pittsburgh on the map as valuable again like they did in the Cold War and they take us out quickly.
DancinWithWolves@reddit
The inevitable climate catastrophe we’re facing in the next 10 to 20 years.
Mass death events from equatorial heatwaves. Ocean level rising glacial melt. The complete halting of the AMOC, and all of this will feed into itself and self perpetuate. Meanwhile, we all know it’s happening, the Paris accord has been ignored, and we’re on track to hit multi degree warming by 2030.
This will happen.
mapped_apples@reddit
I think worst case scenario that’s most likely to happen soon is scarcity from oil shock impacting fertilizer and other agricultural inputs and driving up transportation costs of food.
I think a big one that’s slept on is the mega quake in the PNW. Basically waiting for the Juan De Fuca plate to subduct under the North American plate there. Lots of tsunamis and coastal inundation would lead to an insane disaster on so many levels and the US government is less prepared to deal with it than ever before if it happened now.
AmosTali@reddit
grid collapse or cascading hyperinflation triggering a total banking collapse.
Adorable_Ad_7911@reddit
Anything nuclear. Having to mitigate a nuclear hazard is not in the cards for most people.
bobwyates@reddit
The big rip, everything ends, including atoms. Including more? Big Rip - NASA Science
Revolutionary-Fun227@reddit
Nuclear
Hoyle33@reddit
Nuclear fallout
hw999@reddit
Food chain collapse. Once its too hot for polinators and plankton, its going to be a quick and ugly descent.
Old_Ad5426@reddit
2020 ice storm Kicking Texas for almost nine days of darkness.
StarliteQuiteBrite@reddit
Not the absolute worst, but the most probable:
- Blackout
- Chemical leak/explosïon
- War
BaldyCarrotTop@reddit
Realistically: r/CascadianPreppers. This is what I'm preparing for.
Not so realistically, but in the realm of possibilities: Nuclear Winter. To survive this I would need to move to Southern Oregon or some place with easy access to geothermal energy. Drill a geothermal well. Figure out how to make electricity from the well. Getting heat and hot water would be easy. Build a huge green house. Light it with LED grow lights run from the geothermal generated electricity. heat the greenhouse from geothermal. Start growing food.
T3hBau5@reddit
If you would like to help me figure this out you can stay on my land lol
Motorcyclegrrl@reddit
Where I live there is a nuclear power plant. An accident there could turn this area into a Chernobyl. Evacuation with no possibility of return. So my important stuff is easy to reach if I need to run.
Otherwise nothing seems to happen here that would force me from home or leave me without utilities for a long time. Even on the earthquake map there are no faults here. Likely why the power plant is here.
But you never know what crazy thing could happen, so I have a month of preps just for my comfort. Who knows, I might face an economic situation and be glad I don't have to buy food for a month.
HornFanBBB@reddit
I’m a Tuesday prepper who faced unemployment last spring. My deep pantry kept me going - while I occasionally bought fresh produce or a little treat for myself, I could have easily not gone to the grocery store in that four months.
lr99999@reddit
World: Human to human h5n1 bird flu.
US: Any cause of grid-down,all 3 grids.
Prepping for any single event is silly.
LittleBrickHouse@reddit
Global mega-tsunami - - mud flood.
Surface areas scraped, all infrastructure erased/pulverized, only those in protected highlands survive, and all tech is erased unless those in the highlands kept backups.
12k years later the public will think we were all hunter gatherers "prior to the 2000''s" and we just "invented" agriculture in the 2000's, and all those ancient runes showing advanced tech will be "shadow banned" or dismissed as conspiracy theories.
Intelligent-Ring5113@reddit
People are so soft and have such a normalcy bias that anything that interrupts this just enough just in time economy is going to be devastating. During the great depression 90% of the population could live off the land and were not used to electricity and A/C. They knew how to farm, to hunt and fish, to build, and can foods. Everyone had a stockpile. Millions died. If that happened today it’s beyond imagination how terrible it would be.
Many-Health-1673@reddit
I agree that people are very soft today, but there is no way that 90% of people in the Great Depression could live off the land. If everyone had a stockpile, there wouldn't have been a huge need for soup kitchens in the cities in the Great Depression.
Miss_L_Worldwide@reddit
I think I would prefer a massive disaster than a long slow, accelerating decline. Oh, wait.
Lopsided-Total-5560@reddit
I don’t think I would want to live through MAD. What are you going to do; come out of the bunker in 20 years and hope your grandchildren don’t have serious defects because the only mate your children could find are each other? 🤷
Infinite-Air-1435@reddit
This is specific to my state (Hawaii) but there's an extremely small but scientifically possible chance that the west flank of the Big Island collapses into the sea and causes a massive mega tsunami that goes over the entirety of Kauai and Lanai (which have people living on them) and takes out most of Honolulu and other urban areas on Oahu (Oahu is the most populated island)
I live like a 5 minute walk from the beach and am very afraid of tsunamis.
DavidJinPA@reddit
I went to a gun show recently and I was blown away by almost 2 football sized exhibit halls filled with guns, ammo, equipment collectibles, etc. I just don’t know if everyone in the US, realizes how many weapons are privately owned.
So whatever SHTF, both, Side A and Side B will be armed…to the teeth. Don’t underestimate this.
Roberta_Riggs@reddit
Before nuclear fallout, it’ll be air quality ruining life for most. I’m not talking Jakarta soup…. It’ll be when the fires are burning and the wind is blowing you won’t be able to drive any direction for any amount of time for fresh air., that’s when it’ll start to go downhill fast for us all. 💨
TheSensiblePrepper@reddit
Something like MAD or a World War Z but without the Zs, would actually be the "easy collapse" in my opinion.
A lot of people would die off very quickly and fewer "crazy people" would survive.
My personal concern is a Financial Collapse.
Reason being, it is already started and in the works. It will hurt people and kill off some but it's a slow burn as opposed to an explosion. This gives even the most "normal people" time to loose their shit.
It's never the Zs your worried about. It's the people around you with nothing left to loose.
thefartsock@reddit
skynet
costanzashairpiece@reddit
100%, AI with goals divergent from humanity is our #1 risk by a LOT. We are diving head first into a pool with no water.
TheNewAmericanGospel@reddit
I'm not sure if my first scenario is the worst, but I think it could be. If an advanced AI model got access to the president's Twitter, generated deep fakes, fake news articles or broadcasted reports, I wonder if it could trigger a nuclear war with another country who may not have the ability to know the difference between a real threat and a AI psyop. If that country happens to be North Korea, I think it is possible that it would trigger a nuclear war. A AI deep fake of a assassination of Kim Jong Un directed at his leadership may be enough to trigger a response... so the AI apocalypse is a real possibility I think.
I think the worst case scenario would be a nuclear attack and/or EMP. Nukes do generate EMPs and i think the loss of communication and other systems we depend on every day such as our dependence on the internet and other electronics would be a scary way for things to unfold.
I think theres some possibility that the grid would collapse entirely and many of us, outside the direct strikes and the nearby fallout would have no knowledge as to why it's occurring.
earthshq@reddit
It won't be the asteroid impact itself. But the water that is decontaminated from the impact over time and the skies that darken for years ruining your solar and homesteading output.
Oztraliiaaaa@reddit
NATO sea air ground war across the globe is my current absolute SHTF scenario.
jpb1111@reddit
Nibiru smashing into Earth, with months/years advanced notice. The buildup and breakdown would be insane. Astronauts would be the only "survivors".
bones-are-my-money@reddit
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/8vnkq60s9jixp/KGB_Proekt_Orion_Translated_and_Untranslated
This. Apparently the US president was warned in 1983. They predicted it would happen in 2012-2014, but because that's based on our estimates of the past, it could be off.
But look at the news. We expect to see Nibiru in a few years. El Nino is supposed to be record breaking this year. Oxygen levels have been decreasing more quickly. All the signs listed here are happening. Why is no one talking about this?
msears101@reddit
Worst SHTF ... I am the only one left. I am prepared to take care of myself, my animals, my family for basically ever. The only things that could stop that is an extreme toxic environment like radiation that would basically kill everyone sooner or later.
Few_Nectarine_3789@reddit
Hi. Former nuclear war planner here. Even did a AMA here (deleted that account). You absolutely cannot plan for nuclear war. Not possible.
SmilingAnimal@reddit
Weakening magnetic fields, killing bees and humans faster than we can migrate
NotDinahShore@reddit
Just watch the movie “Threads” and I think your question will be answered. After I watched it, I realized I prefer not to survive such a thing.
eng_manuel@reddit
Another covid like event, except with heavier consequences and a disease that is actually devastating,
hellzraven7@reddit
I mean, total grid shut down that wont effect me one bit. I would be trading water for work (Laughing in Amish style)
ConflagWex@reddit
Worst case scenario? False vacuum decay. Not very likely but if it happens it would destroy the known universe.
This is why I don't plan for worst case, I plan for most likely bad cases. Weather disasters, pandemics, economic collapses.... much more likely and there's stuff I can actually do to prepare for them.
astilba120@reddit
Extinction event would not matter, get my loved ones close, have a last supper, take sedatives, if it was going to be in a blink. Massive toxic explosion, bio weapons used against nature, same, I would probably check out. A longer collapse could occur with cyber warfare, that one we could hang in there for awhile, prepping will come in handy, I live in a rural area in the mountains of Vermont, town population is like 247 people, good strong community, one traffic light in the town 9 miles away, we have shortwave, there are HAM operators, water access, food stocked up, wood stoves for heat and plenty of solar generators around, keep the car tank topped off, have some fuel stored up. Weeks, month, a few years off grid is very doable, been there, done that. The worst case would involve bio and chemical warfare, throw Ebola in for yucks. The chemical leak in Bhopal India from Dow or Monsanto wiped out a large village, the poison struck while they slept, instant. One of the motivation factors for me to leave NYC in 77 was the realization that cities are death traps, the survival rate and fighting and mass hysteria if the grid was down for months on end, would need boots on the ground, massive arrests and containment. That would be hell. Imagine 9/11 on a daily basis, bombing of our cities, get the hell out of the city. An asteroid? I think of the film Don't Look Up. Have dinner, hold hands, here we go.
Live_Slice354@reddit
I think there's a few possible scenarios:
Several things (intentional and unintentional) could cause long-term power grid issues. Those without basic common sense, survival skills, health and community would be at risk of dying (mostly the poor but everyone would have some increased risk).
Another pandemic isn't that unproble. Lots of people died in the last one and lots would die in the next.
War and everything that comes with it. War isn't a mystery or a problem but rather usually the intentional solution to a bigger issue. Peace doesn't really seem to be the plan for a lot of the world lately.
CaliRefugeeinTN@reddit
Solar storms, floods (I live in Appalachia and found out real quick), or mass illness. Probably more realistic than most scenarios.
I’ve lived where they did mosquito spraying every night, and now I’m seeing these ticks being deployed on farms. Maybe there’s an unknown reaction to something.
G305_Enjoyer@reddit
They're going to kill us all with some gay lab virus. Probably mosquitos. The survivors go in weird technocrat labor camps or smart cities depending on your Internet history
dnhs47@reddit
Pointless karma harvesting. I prepare for Tuesday.
National-Hedgehog-90@reddit
I would say a full nuclear exchange is a mass extinction event
That said I'm not planning for that. Most realistic scenario is a natural disaster like a massive storm
mavrik36@reddit
Civil war and environmental collapse are the most likely, probably will play off each other its gonna be great. Civil war including a coup within the government that is all but guranteed
StarlightLifter@reddit
Carrington or EMP situation followed with a full breakdown of supply chain logistics, social services, etc. The supply chain breakdown could also happen as a result of these oil shocks we are about to see, low chance but possible.
I don’t count nuclear Armageddon because that honestly is just the end of all things. There wouldn’t be anything to prep for cause we’d all just be dead.
Educational_Seat3201@reddit
Common panic due to natural disasters. Example; hurricane Katrina
AKpigeon@reddit
Good luck OP, I caught a ban in this sub for responding to a thread like this in detail. That being said, in the spirit of the sub’s rules, “Everything goes to complete shit, but we all still gotta go to work.” Anything beyond that, and I probably won’t need to worry about it long.
elmajico101@reddit
Nazi style. Everything is looking like authoritarianism from this administration. There is a hidden agenda with isreal that is pushing the US to war. Im 89.32% sure there will be a catalyst event that will force the US to declare 'martial law', but in reality, its just for full control of the american people.
Houseleek1@reddit
The requirement for anyone with a green card to leave the country and apply through foreign consulates has stepped concern. This isn’t being discussed much through media. I’m concerned that there Will be a supply rush as people (like me) determine that even being born in the USA will make it more difficult to shop without being confronted.
BaylisAscaris@reddit
Something that will make everyone continuously suffering and aware of their suffering, but unable to stop it. For example, a disease that causes terrible pain and able paralysis but doesn't kill you. People try to keep you alive, pain management fails, you can't tell them you want to stop. Maybe something like zombies/AI/alien could result in this situation. Imagine neuralink starts out with a ton of benefits and is widely adopted, then there's an update where you need to pay a subscription fee or you're in constant pain (physical and psychological), and if you try to end yourself, get it removed, or tell anyone about it, it renders you unconscious or disrupts that thought process, then makes it worse.
I take comfort that in the event of a situation that is just too terrible, I always have a way out. Taking that option away is horrifying. Locked in syndrome, dementia, being institutionalized, etc. are all scary things.
iChinguChing@reddit
A slow crumble to chaos, manifested as rising covert inflation and decreasing financial opportunities. The people, in desperation will get radicalized or more violent. Meanwhile the climate will get worse, creating multiplying effects.
KeithJamesB@reddit
Grid down seems like the worst and most likely. Having gone without power for weeks it’s okay till about the 4 week mark. It also depends on how widespread and time of year.
shootist_Biker@reddit
The absolute worst? Pandemic or anything that kills everyone before anyone realizes it.
ishootthedead@reddit
Yellowstone erupting, major coastal tsunami or asteroid impact. All sudden events that can't realistically be prepared for or escaped. So, nothing that is worth worrying over.
New_pollution1086@reddit
Earthquake, weather related blackout (last one was 6 days), potential fascism.
Zombies
Jolly_Picklepants@reddit
Depends on your perspective.
Worst overall, would be extinction level event, as everyone would die off.
Second would probably be nuclear winter following war.
Third would be global grid collapse, probably.