Russia is starting to lose ground in Ukraine - Our tracker suggests it has suffered its first sustained net loss since October 2023
Posted by polymute@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 86 comments
HzPips@reddit
If the news are to be believed, both sides are on the verge of collapse since the second year of the war. I don’t think this conflict is going to be solved in the battlefield, maybe an awkward cease fire that never gets properly addressed and negotiated into an official peace deal.
Thatsidechara_ter@reddit
Honestly I think you're right. Neither side is willing to back down- they'd rather leave it in a state of limbo that takes its toll on both sides.
Seriously fuck Russia for all of this shit.
Pklnt@reddit
I'm willing to bet there won't be any collapse on either side, they both no longer have the means to exploit a weakness to the point of forcing a collapse.
Once Russia will no longer have the mean to go on the offensive, they simply will no longer go on the offensive. Ukraine doesn't have what it takes to regain a significant portion of what they've lost.
goonerladdius@reddit
I think the consensus has been that Ukraine has little chance of taking back significant territory militarily. It's more so about Russia's economy and its ability to fund the war. If they can't pay the contracts or supply their men it doesn't matter how much of Ukraine they hold they will likely lose it. Big if though
Pklnt@reddit
I think the idea that sanctions and attacks on oil infrastructure stressing Russia's ability to wage war against Ukraine to the point where Russia is going to be forced to abandon occupying Ukraine just like that is a wishful thinking.
goonerladdius@reddit
Maybe but the trend in the news on Russia and coming out of Russia is that the economy is in a bad place and getting worse. Obviously not possible to predict but when a lot of negative factors coincide like this the likelihood increases.
Pklnt@reddit
Yes, it's getting worse, but worse to the point where they have to abandon their position in Ukraine? I don't believe that.
goonerladdius@reddit
Financial ruin because of war is nothing new. I'm not saying it will happen but at the same time i wouldn't be as confident as you are that it won't.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Even the worst projections for Russia over the next decade show it still being better than Turkey in peacetime.
A country with a quarter the planet's raw resources and a land border to the world's factory floor (China) is simply not going to run out of financial capacity to fight.
Pklnt@reddit
If Russia's economic failure was guaranteed to push the Russian state to a withdrawal of Ukraine, Ukraine and it's supporters would not be pushing for a peace-deal or even a cease-fire, but for nothing but Russia getting out of Ukraine.
goonerladdius@reddit
Ukraine wanted peace because of the difficult situation on the front line and it needs to consider the wellbeing of its soldiers and citizens. Waiting on a Russian collapse that could happen tomorrow or in 2030 isn't a strategy. That however doesn't mean a Russian economic crisis isnt possible. Whether such a crisis would force Russia out of Ukraine depends on the kind of crisis and the scale ofc.
Pklnt@reddit
I'm not saying Russia isn't facing an economic crisis, they already are. I'm saying that the idea that such a crisis is going to force Russia out of Ukraine is borderline ludicrous.
Russia can still scale down their invasion of Ukraine and remain on the defensive.
goonerladdius@reddit
I just don't share your dismissal of the possibility, I don't think it's currently likely either fyi but I don't see Russia exiting Ukraine because of anything other than deep economic pressures.
Pklnt@reddit
Fair enough
BigFatKi6@reddit
It's wishful thinking if you allow the US and EU to (in)directly buy their gas and oil as well as hav e no real way to keep India from buying.
Peak hypocrisy.
Freethecrafts@reddit
Ukraine does. Russia is dependent on artillery fire. They lost drone imports from Iran and China is way overcharging.
Ukraine is breaking war infrastructure deep into Russia. Ukraine has the means to break Russian artillery, meaning Russia loses the front, loses the war.
Thatsidechara_ter@reddit
Yeah, that's more or less what I meant, you put it better than I did. A Neverending war, as bleak as that sounds. The only hope is for Ukraine to hit enough Russian ool infrastructure to really hurt theur wallet enough to force them to the table(kinda like how the IRA did with Britain)
Pklnt@reddit
They will 100% come to the table.
And both will claim that they've won.
Thatsidechara_ter@reddit
Eventually, maybe. Until then, we will see.
CurbYourThusiasm@reddit
I think Ukraine can sustain this stalemate for longer than the Russian economy can withstand it. We've already started seeing cracks form in the economy, and even among the Russian population who are getting tired of the war.
8004612286@reddit
I've been hearing about these cracks since 3 months into the war
CurbYourThusiasm@reddit
I'm talking about what they're saying about their own economy, and their own GDP forecasts.
NearABE@reddit
Two sides can definitely remain close to collapse. You can see this in competitive sports too. Even in animal evolution like cheetahs vs gazelles trying to run faster.
In most war cases that outcome is unlikely and it becomes less likely the longer it continues. With Ukraine and Russia the odds of valance were stacked because European and USA military aid was proportional to the perceived risk of Ukraine getting overrun.
Two major trends is the full depletion of Soviet stockpiles and the escalating numbers of drones. Reports of infantry shortages are growing.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
While that is true, Russia still has the "draft" lever it can pull, while Ukraine has no such escalation option, its already press ganging anyone it can find on the streets.
What is increasingly likely is that Putin will fall from a window for his fuck ups, but that Russia as a nation will continue the war (under new and even worse leadership)
Freethecrafts@reddit
Russia might retain part of a port if they find a deal before Ukraine takes it all. I think it goes the distance though. Ukraine probably takes it all back and even creates a DMZ from previous Russian territory.
thatthatguy@reddit
I kind of anticipated that the pressure would cause one government or the other to break under the strain. Impressive they have both held up this long. Unfortunate for the people killed and displaced, because war is what it is, but neither side has entirely lost the will to continue.
Guac_in_my_rarri@reddit
The Russian elite are speaking out against ~~poopin~~ Putin. Rumor has it, Putin is being held in his secrete bunkers and travel the country bunker to bunker with his private security. He also only meets with a small group of leaders who instruct the rest of the country.
All according to rumors.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Heh. These come from the same sources that said Putin was dying from cancer years ago?
polymute@reddit (OP)
https://archive.md/20260518115301/https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2026/05/17/russia-is-starting-to-lose-ground-in-ukraine - in case of paywall.
From the article:
Stanislovakia@reddit
How is it a net loss if they captured 220 sq km but lost 189 sq km?
polymute@reddit (OP)
Russia's number is for the whole of 2026. Ukraine's is for the last month.
Stanislovakia@reddit
Where does Russia's number come from?
For example, based on Ukraine's deepstate map the yearly total through April was roughly 680 sq km gains for Russia. Other mappers have slightly less conservative or more conservative numbers: 805 sq km for Suriyak and 390 sq km from AMKMapping.
Regardless, 180 is still less than 220. Net loss would be wholly dependant on future gains or losses.
ZippyDan@reddit
I think the point is that it's a net loss over a specific time period, and more importantly it's the most recent time period.
Normally, Russia has always been net gaining (even if it's a relatively small amount), over every time period. But for the first time in years, Ukraine is the one who has been net gaining, over the most recent time period.
Throwaway5432154322@reddit
From where/what is ISW is “known” for that?
Stanislovakia@reddit
"The internet"
They are slow to report fluid situations. This is because they do not map frontlines, but rather definitively held positions.
This makes them a good source for strategic analysis, but a less then optimal one for battlefield updates.
Throwaway5432154322@reddit
I know; I used to work there in the late 2010s. I was curious why you said they’re “known” for “trends”
Stanislovakia@reddit
Perhaps trends wasn't the ideal word
Rindan@reddit
If you are arguing about tens of kilometers over a 1000+km border, you can safely call it a stalemate in terms of territory. World War I had more dynamic movements, and was shorter.
Stanislovakia@reddit
I'm not really arguing about tens or hundred of kms. I'm arguing about shitty or unclear, or clickbait titles.
The war is absolutely a stale mate, and is mostly just strategic strikes at this point. At least for now.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
Russia's 220 sq km in the past 5 months. Ukraine's 189 sq km in the past 30 days, ie. a month.
With simple math, Russia's gains equate to 44 sq km per month. Therefore Russia's 44 sq km gain average per month is less than Ukraine's gain of 189 sq km of the past 30 days. This means Ukraine gaining 145 sq km more this month than Russia's monthly averge per this month.
Stanislovakia@reddit
You cant pull a running monthly average from a single month.
Lowered12@reddit
Well but the thing is that those numbers are just completely made up ,for both Ukraine and Russia.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
These are in good part from independent analysts figuring out controlled territory based on osint and videos posted by both sides. The deepstate map for one is quite reliable, not willing to hide Ukrainian losses such as was with the Kucheriv Yar breakthrough when the Ukrainian main defensive line was breached.
But please go ahead and tell us all how claiming both sides are wrong makes you smart
Stanislovakia@reddit
The deepstate map claims equate to roughly 660 sq km gains for the year for Russia. The 220 mentioned are from ISW, who may be known for their analysis but not really for their mapping.
Lowered12@reddit
Those same independent analysts claimed putin died like multiple times before had every known cancer or were claiming how Russia is going to run out of missiles, well since the war started and somehow Russia still has missiles..
But please go ahead hiding behind independent analysts really makes you smart..
Maybe if you actually were interested in the war instead of just propaganda you would know that since the start of the year Russia had gross 300+km captured each month or the fact that Ukraine had bigger Gains in february and march but didn't have bigger gains since then.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
Mthe only people claiming Putin is dead are people on YT or Twitter, not actual analysts.
Russia has indeed overall been gaining more ground for the past several years, and that is exactly why this year has been so remarkable. Ukraine, still suffering from a manpower shortage, is quite literally gaining more land than it loses with counter attacks. That, and Ukraine has gained more land this past month than the Russians have captured since January. For note, Russians have lost territory around Stepnohirsk, the Kharkiv oblast border, and in the Huliapole direction as well. The Russians have been trying to take Mala Tokmachka, Konstantinivka and other such settlements for a super long time, while literally losing Kupyansk for a second time.
Also I have indeed been following the war on a very regular basis. I heard very on time about the Spiderweb operation, the Ukrainains hitting Russian refineries and at one point disabling 25% of Russian oil/gas export capacity temporarily, now hitting Russia with a 1000 drone/missile wave. I cannot keep up with the amount of Russian aa being destroyed. Also the Russians have lost Starlink while the Russian army has banned telegram on which the Russian army relied on
haggerton@reddit
With a bit of sucking at maths anything is possiblem
Stubbs94@reddit
Hasn't this been reported every year since the start of the war?
ColeslawConsumer@reddit
No
Stubbs94@reddit
Well. That's me told. I have read articles constantly about how Russia is losing ground or being pushed back or lost a village.
usesidedoor@reddit
The consensus in Western sources is that Russia has been making gains over the past few years, but that these have been negligible in the great scheme of things, and not only that, but also very costly.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Such is the nature of attritional war.
I remain skeptical of any supposed "possible turning points," however. When the line breaks, it'll really break.
NearABE@reddit
Right, except that Russian and Ukrainian culture continues to propagate a myth regarding gains mattering. That makes it an indicator. There are a variety of other contributing variables.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Propaganda is just another front of the war. The myth of gains has less to do with Russian or Ukrainian culture and more to do with convincing Ukraine's backers to reduce or increase support.
Russia can't win a war while most of the western world backs Ukraine, and Ukraine can't win without it.
NearABE@reddit
When the narrative flips every time it is convenient to flip we have a reason to suspect that those who are talking do not believe in the strategic importance. This flipping back and forth on the strategy topic is done by people also consistently support one or the other side.
123yes1@reddit
Gains do matter. They matter in two respects.
1) The most likely outcome of this war (or any war) is a negotiated settlement, and the easiest settlement is using the frontline as the new border, so having more territory provides more leverage in future negotiations. When the territory doesn't change much, it doesn't matter much but it is nonetheless important.
2) Who is gaining and who is losing territory is important as it signals which side has the momentum. Russia had the momentum for the last few years although it had been losing momentum this past year and now Ukraine is starting to take it and generating more. The side with momentum cannot really lose. As they first have to lose the momentum.
NearABE@reddit
You might as well be quoting Soviet doctrine. Which is also the default assumptions in eastern Europe. If Russia attacked Estonia the United States Marine Corp’s Pacific MAF would take Vladivostok. The United States Air Force would see nothing wrong with shooting up Russian units advancing west of Tallinn while flying from airstrips in Finland. The US Navy would also find it convenient to have targets closer to the Baltic. Whether the Marines in the Atlantic/European theater head to the Baltic or Murmansk depends on the season and Russian positions. If Belarus joins Russia then the US/French/British army would likely advance along a Minsk-Smolensk-Moscow axis and not even bother with breaking a siege around Tallinn. This difference in strategic view has lead to discussions in NATO circles. Estonians do not like it so much.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Not in attrition warfare, which only occurs when neither side can gain a decisive level of momentum.
This war has been one of attrition for years now.
123yes1@reddit
Name one attritional war in which the loser was gaining territory as they lost. Every central power country in WW1 was losing territory when they capitulated. Tzarist Russia collapsed when they were losing territory.
Attritional warfare still has momentum. One side is losing territory because their logistics are not being replenished sufficiently quickly that they are getting overwhelmed and forced to retreat.
Retreating small distances is also a really big deal in attritional warfare as the territory that was just captured by the enemy are where all the entrenchments are located. Losing a bit of ground is losing a substantial amount of fortified positions.
NetworkLlama@reddit
And when one can fight no longer, things can shift quickly. The Western Front changed very little from October 1914 to August 1918. That month, the Allies began new offensives that chipped away at German lines slowly at first, and then with more speed. By October, the Germans had clearly been defeated, and, facing an uprising at home from a collapsed economy, agreed to the November 11 armistice, withdrawing from all occupied lands. (Germany also lost some of its own land, but I don't think anyone is calling for Russia to actually lose territory, just to go back to the status quo antebellum with the pre-2014 borders respected.)
King_Kvnt@reddit
As I said above; when the break happens, it'll really break. A few kilometres over a month is not this.
Both Ukrainian and EU figures have suggested dismantling the Russian Federation.
sakezaf123@reddit
Please link them
Throwaway5432154322@reddit
You’re not gonna get a response to this one lol
Sevastous-of-Caria@reddit
Reddit code While (war goes on) if (Ukraine_gained_ground) Printf (ukraine crushed russia)
Else Printf(silence and crickets)
eelsandpeels@reddit
This is the first time since October 2023 that Russia has suffered net territorial losses.
no_u_mang@reddit
They did push into Russia proper but that's been a while, maybe you just woke up from a coma.
Stubbs94@reddit
I remember reading about 6 months ago about how the Ukrainians were taking back ground in the Donbas. The propaganda surrounding the invasion of Ukraine is mental.
eelsandpeels@reddit
This is the first time since October 2023 that Russia has suffered net territorial losses.
TheBigOof96@reddit
And how much have the front lines shifted since then? It took Germany less time to reach Moscow and then for the USSR to push Germans back to Berlin, than it took for Russia to occupy 90% of Donbas. Cities like Kharkiv sit mere 30 km away from the border with Russia, while Russians used to celebrated the capture of every small town and village in the south of the country - Avdiivka, with the pre-war population of 32 thousands fell more than two years ago.
Pklnt@reddit
This is the kind of shit that makes me lose faith with mainstream medias when they talk about territorial gains in this war.
We literally have well known mappers on both sides (pro Ukraine like AMK, Poulet Volant or lowkey pro Russia like Suriyak) showing consistent Russian gains and somehow those Western medias have found the secret sauce where their analysis is literally the opposite of what mappers have been saying for months.
According to Mediazona, the confirmed amount of Russian losses per week is diminishing since late 2024. There's obviously some latency when it comes to determining who's actually KIA or MIA, but again, those medias are making extraordinary claims without extraordinary evidence.
tsar_nicolay@reddit
Why don't you trust the isw? Not trying to make a point or anything, just to have a civilized discussion, because I have been following them for most of the war at this point and they as a rule try to be objective and not present unverified claims by either side as fact. That being said I did notice that their reports became more emotionally charged in the last year or so, perhaps specifically since trump became president again. They also started reporting most Russian troop advances as "infiltrations" and not counting them as controlled territory, though they did provide reasons such as supposed changes in military tactics.
RobotWantsKitty@reddit
They are owned by the neocon Kagan/Nuland family
Pklnt@reddit
They've been criticized by mappers (be it pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine) for their lack of seriousness as they tend to make bold claim as to who controls a certain portion of a grey-zone. And their assessment is always completely different than pretty much every serious & well-known mappers.
They were also caught manipulating maps to win bets online, it happened once but the same Twitter account that caught them the first time claims that it happened again.
Fortunafors@reddit
Don't you know that you can't use your brain when talking about Ukraine?
PurpleMclaren@reddit
Dont try to bring logic here, just keep circlejerking each other
Treinrukker@reddit
It's a war of attrition not of km2, if you believe this don't be shocked when Ukraine loses the war in the end and you can't wrap your head around it.
Czart@reddit
Everyone who has a braincell considers Ukraine losing as a possibility. But they're probably tired of reading the same religious mantra of "soon they will collapse" for years.
bluecheese2040@reddit
Good news. Although to put it in context Russia has been on the offensive for pretty much 12-18 months and is likely in an operational pause to reconstitute its forces
That said, I also think starlink is the one true wunderwaffe of this war, and removing it from Russia has unlocked massive advantages for Ukraine that its doing a great Job of making some gains with.
The next 12 months will be fascinating. Ukraine has alot of tricks up its sleave I think
gs87@reddit
why it's good? if you think this war can be resolved by taking land.. probably only a new October revolution can end Putin
NetworkLlama@reddit
A revolution isn't impossible. Xinhua reported the following two weeks ago:
Ukraine has been hitting Russian O&G resources for weeks, and the drones strikes on Moscow the other day clearly freaked out a bunch of people who until then had felt very disconnected from the war. Russia is shoring up its budget and economy through gold sales to China, but there are many reports that it is at a significant discount of up to 30% from spot prices. But there's only so much gold to sell or to mine.
zeefox79@reddit
It'll be substantial territorial losses and sustained bombing of targets within Russia that will drive such a change though.
Or more accurately, it'll be those things combined with continued misinformation and news blackouts within Russia about what's happening.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
The Russians are not in an operational pause, they are currently commiting to a full on spring offensive, which has yielded a loss in territory essentially.
The Russian keep attacking in Mala Tokmachka for longer than Stalingrad lasted, and Ukraine still holds it.
The Russians have been attacking Konstantinovka since October 2025, and hey have yet to establish a foothold in the city proper, or even its suburbs.
The Russians started the battle of Chasiv Yar in April 2024, and they have yet to push Ukraine fully out of the city's suburbs, after 2 years.
Besides that, Starlink's loss may not be as impactful as a loss inflicted by the Russians themselves, of banning Telegram for the soldiers at least from the top. The Russian army literally has relied on Telegram to a ridiculous degree.
PurpleMclaren@reddit
Russia already started their own starlink program
Also, they just buy whitelisted terminals on the blackmarket
Turns out even Ukrianians can be bought, who would have thought? 😶
Hilarious calling starlink a wunderwaffe 🤣
cut_rate_revolution@reddit
These reports about the Russian military being about to collapse are equal to reports about the Chinese economy about to collapse. Wishful thinking.
goonerladdius@reddit
This in addition to the air defense degradation, the increased number and effectiveness of Ukrainian long and medium strikes, Russian economic outlooks, and stability of EU support paint a poor picture for Russia in all honesty. I try to stay away from too much optimism in regards to Ukraine but it does feel like the Russian position is getting worse and worse.
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