Russia launches chilling 3-day nuclear drill after relentless Ukraine attacks
Posted by TheExpressUS@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 62 comments
Posted by TheExpressUS@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 62 comments
YourBoiJimbo@reddit
No, Russia is not losing the war. No, they won't use nucleae weapons. Yes, their nuclear weapons work
NihiloZero@reddit
Russia is an international pariah state, it has gained very little in the war, it's infrastructure has been severely damaged, and it has suffered hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties.
Why do they even have them, then?
The ones they're not going to use? Ironic that, isn't it?
YourBoiJimbo@reddit
None of Russia's material losses mean it's going to lose. It's going to hurt, maybe badly, but they have way more people and armaments to burn through than Ukraine.
They won't use nuclear weapons if the war continues as-is. If European countries or the US or Nato escalate the situation, maybe. But it looks like they mostly have backed down because the US is happy just selling a bunch of weapons till there are no ukrainains left to use them, rather than push things to far and lose the $$$.
NihiloZero@reddit
That wasn't the claim. The claim wasn't that they were "going to lose." The claim was that they are currently losing -- and I showed all the ways that are, in fact, losing.
Winning a war requires more than armaments and a larger population. Russia's military operation has been ran like a domestic meat grinder trying to turn its population into sausage.
That's a bit of a hedge, but you still have it backwards! The only reason that Russia was able to have their national memorial parade this year is because the U.S. directly intervened -- and it was still brief, without the usual display of weaponry, and attended only by North Koreans. Almost ALL russian refineries across the country have been struck by long range drones. More outspoken opposition to the war is rising domestically and Putin's control has never been more tenuous. Ukrainian drones are now attacking targets in Moscow itself -- and that's why Putin is reaching for the last tool in his box. His desperation and loss of control is why the risk is now higher.
YourBoiJimbo@reddit
You're saying that Russia runs its military like a meat grinder, and I'm not necessarily disagreeing with that, but it's not like Ukraine isn't either. Theyre kidnapping people off the streets to go to the trenches. Russia may be doing that too, but if that's the way they're both going to do this, then yes, higher population and more armaments is exactly how you win. It's a war of attrition and Ukraine has been losing ground.
NihiloZero@reddit
Except not recently. That's the big difference. That's the story. The battlefield has changed and Ukraine's weapons and tactics have become increasingly effective. Ukraine has been regaining ground. Ukraine wasn't striking deep into Russia for the first couple years, but now it's a regular occurrence and they've struck critical targets all over the country in recent months. This is why Putin's parade was limited and arguably why he's starting up these nuclear drills.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
Russia has ALREADY burnt thru most of its store of armaments, most of which it inherited from the USSR. CURRENTLY Ukraine is producing more and technologically far superior armaments at an every increasing rate. AND is now getting contracts from other nations to supply them the same armaments - giving Ukraine the income to produce vastly more plus the economies of scale, etc etc etc.
Ukraine has already repeatedly demonstrated that it can accurately strike targets within Moscow (and far beyond it!) = with weapons it made ITSELF so no permission required from a back stabbing American government bent on drip feeding Ukraine to death.
TO EMPHASIZE HOW MUCH UKRAINE HAS TURNED THE TIDE, The USA now is in DESPERATE need of weapons from Ukraine!
Memo to JD Vance: now UKRAINE has all the cards!
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
Cool, so if any of that turns out to be true, can they finally handle their own finances, so the EU can stop picking up new debt to support them? If so, I'm all for it! We could use the money to help sort out our own immense problems and shortcomings.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
If you think that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not an immense problem for the EU, you haven't been paying any attention at all. Putin's long goal is to take back ALL of the territory the USSR once controlled - which includes a major part of the EU.
YourBoiJimbo@reddit
people keep saying 'Putin wants to take back all the USSR territory' and I have never seen anything to suggest this.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
But there remains the important distinction that Ukraine is not part of the EU or NATO. In a different comment you called me out implying NATO is far more reactive than I give them credit for, and hey, fair enough on that!
If that's case, and Putin knows it, then attacking a NATO member state would be a level of escalation he simply can not afford. Those other countries he wants back (mine included) are under the protection of a technologically superior, better-funded and overall larger military + a nuclear umbrella.
When he attacked Ukraine, Russia had the advantage in all of those areas which is what I believe emboldened Putin to think he can swiftly score a victory.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
Russia has the nukes because 1) they inherited them from the USSR and 2) because the USA in one of the most astoundingly stupid moves ever made in international politics, put massive pressure on Ukraine to give to Russia (who had NO LEGAL CLAIM on them) the nukes it had inherited from the USSR when it broke up.
And the astonishingly, mind blowingly, insultingly stupid reason the USA gave for wanting that done was that "having nuclear weapons in fewer hands in the region would increase stability"!!! (NOT making that up! It's so unthinkably insane that no one could make stuff like that up!)
The ONE THING that would indisputably have prevented Russia from invading Ukraine and the USA forced Ukraine to give it to Russia! The USA's current total betrayal of Ukraine is far from new! The USA has been working towards the destruction of Ukraine ever since the Minsk Agreement in which the USA guraranteed Ukraine's sovereignty in return for Ukraine giving Russia the nukes it inherited NOT FROM RUSSIA but from the USSR. With "friends" like the USA, who needs enemies?
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: After observing THIS, why would ANY country ever give up nuclear weapons in return for "stability"?
In a move falsely portrayed as an advance in "disarmament" the USA did the one thing that GUARANTEED that disarmament could never be achieved, at least in the lifetime of anyone then living.
Striper_Cape@reddit
Russia is losing the war
Long-Debt6637@reddit
I'm having a hard time deciding if this is really that bad considering everything else.
Jeveran@reddit
That's less than two months' worth of soldiers at Russia's current burn rate.
Sputnik-overdrive@reddit
All white noise as usual, flexing his muscles
As he knows he is losing this war
Shoddy-Childhood-511@reddit
Yes: If he wanted to win via nukes, then he'd first give Iran a few nukes to use on Israel, or carry out a false flag Iranian attack on Israel. After Israel nuked Iran back then everyone would take his blustering more seriously. Also, he could better gauge if he could get away with using nukes in Ukraine.
In reality, Russia has several options:
Sign some peace deal for roughly the original borders, probably make Ukraine recognise that Crimea is Russian now.
Continue the war but stop sacrificing 30k troops per month gaining tiny land areas. Instead focus upon building defences for the land they already took. If Russia could manage low casualties for a year or so, then their recruitment would eventually give them way more troops, and they could enforce a peace deal holding the current border. The Ukrainians are not going to sacrifice lots of men taking back land, although they happily take back land when Russian lines collapse for other reasons.
Russia does not take either option because of the ideology that all of Ukraine belongs to them. It's possible this ideology restrains them somewhat from using nukes too.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
This ideology might rule out the use of strategic nukes, but tactical nukes would still be on the table, especially since Ukraine seems to be doing better nowadays in the drone department. Russia needs something to offset that, and a few tactical nukes are a pretty solid candidate for that.
Z3B0@reddit
A nuclear strike, of any kind, cannot be allowed to be a winning move. And that's true for all nuclear armed powers.
Let's say Russia use a tactical nuke on the front, make a breakthrough, and win a bit of land, before getting stuck on the next defensive line. Then they use another one ? And that all the way to Kyiv?
Now we go to the Kashmir region. 3 nuclear powers have been fighting low intensity for decades, sometimes with more intensity.
What do you think one side will expect if russia won territory with nukes ? "Hey ! I can break the stalemate by cracking some atoms on the front, and move in after ! And if I don't, one of the two other will soon !" Then the others will see a nuke used, will say :"I'm also using one to advance my position, and to retaliate from the first nuking" so nukes start flying, and the escalation is on.
No nuclear power can accept the first one, because it will lead to many more. The only logical response from NATO would be the complete destruction of any and all russian troops in Ukraine by conventional means.
JudgmentUnited5297@reddit
Allowed by whom? The UN? The general public under various shades of authoritarian governments?
I don't wish it on anyone but would query who is actually in charge to stop it.
Z3B0@reddit
Every other nations, nuclear armed or not. If you are armed, it's a very, very dangerous precedent.
If you aren't, it means you're on the menu of the nuclear armed countries that could nuke you before invading.
Using a nuke first, especially in a war of aggression against an independent country, is a losing move. And everyone has a big interest to maintain that situation.
NATO will intervene, and every russian allies will stand by and watch. China won't oppose a UN security council resolution for the intervention, because they cannot say it's ok to nuke your neighbour to grab some land.
JudgmentUnited5297@reddit
Man I wish I had that kind of confidence 😂
Shoddy-Childhood-511@reddit
It's more complex: https://archive.ph/K4zpd
Also like my comment above says, Putin could "pop the nuclear cherry" with a false flag asymmetric attack on Israel, so that Israel nukes Iran.
After that chaos who knows, maybe more EU leaders would take his blustering seriously, or maybe they'd all be frantically forgiving France's national debt to buy their own nukes.
Current-Code@reddit
And what would those nuke achieve operationally that conventional strikes can't ?Â
The front is already low troop density because of troops on both side, this doesn't serve any purpose and it WOULD be consider used of nukes and will trigger a response from NATO.
Might be thoughts and prayer, might be all gloves out on conventional strikes.
nw342@reddit
There is no way in hell this war ends with crimea being russian territory.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
Totally true. Ukraine would never accept Russian annexation of Crimea and Ukraine currently has the upper hand and is increasing it advantage relentlessly.
The problem Putin is currently faced with is how to end this war, ceding all Ukrainian territory if necessary (and it will be) without losing his grip on power. That won't be at all easy and he has to do it very quickly or he will lose power whatever he does.
The consolation prize for Putin is that, while he may have destroyed Russia, he's also thoroughly destroyed the USA.
Ree_For_Thee@reddit
Building defenses? They can barely burrow in and hold area as they are. The sheer amount of Ukrainian drones is just too much to do much of anything.
And now because tons of drones are being deployed, the scale has finally become too large to handle, which is why so many reach Moscow. (And yeah sure, also as revenge.)
Current-Code@reddit
As far as I understood, Ukraine's drone kill zone is more or less 50km deep, they "could" build defense at 60km too keep a buffer.Â
That would be admitting defeat though, I don't see that happeningÂ
Malcolm_Morin@reddit
The invasion of Ukraine started off as a "military exercise".
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Hope he chickens out, prepare for the possibility he will wipe Kyiv off the map with a tactical nuclear weapon.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
Tactical weapons don't wipe out cities, you're thinking of strategic nukes. Though I would say tactical nukes are more likely. Way less risk of it affecting NATO countries as a side effect.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
The idea that the use of tactical nukes would be lower risk of affecting NATO countries is pure garbage! As far as NATO countries go, once tactical nukes started being used, strategic nukes would be just a faster way to get the same end result.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
If you say so 👌
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
Putin has always been pure bluff about threats to use nukes. NOTHING would galvanize NATO like the use of nukes and Putin is excruciatingly aware of that.
Plus, of course, Russia considers Ukraine it's territory and who is insane enough to use nukes against their own territory? And if you think Ukraine has an exceedingly high level of resistance to Russia now, it would pale in comparison to what it would be should Russia use nukes.
Remember, Russia has already nuked Ukraine once before (Chernobyl) in addition to a genocidal starvation of up to a third of its population (the Holodormor). And to top all that off, Russia blew a hole in the emergency containment over Chernobyl in the current "special three day military operation". With NO effect on Ukrainian resistance except to INCREASE it.
Johannes_P@reddit
Putin knows that if he uses nukes then he's toast.
In the best case, China and India will enforce an embargo. In the worse, other nuclear powers might assume that they're under attack and retaliate...
eelsandpeels@reddit
How do you prepare for that?
It would be a strategic nuclear weapon to wipe Kyiv off the map not a tactical one.
TheIrishWanderer@reddit
It requires an entirely different kind of prepping. If you're serious about it, you need shelter and enough supplies to survive for at least 10 years following the worst kind of collapse imaginable. And you'd better cross your fingers that the nuclear winter scenario turns out to be less severe than most scientists believe it would be.
NihiloZero@reddit
People also said he was just flexing when he lined up his soldiers on Ukraine's borders a few years back. The fact that he's losing his war... is precisely why there is a greater risk of ultimate escalation.
If Putin pushes the button... that will be used to justify other reckless leaders launching a few as well. They'll let China take Taiwan and call it even. They'll all claim the moral high ground.
What happens after that? Further climate collapse and probably more escalation of wars and civil unrest around the world. Perhaps one day autonomous battlefield drones will block out the sun?
Lifekraft@reddit
I dont think he is really losing as he still kept more territory than what he start with but it is stalling. And costing a lot. Politicaly and economically. The war he might end up losing is inside his own country.
Current-Code@reddit
Yeah, well, it WAS stalling until a few month ago.Â
Meanwhile Orban kicked the political bucket, Ukraine got 90bn financing, launched several new mid and long range domestic drones, and negociated a starlink interdiction to russia.
Ukraine nulled all Russia's recent progress in march/april, and they are still pushing.
It's not smelling too good for Ivan, that's for sure, hence the nuclear sabre rattling, which nobody really care about.
Heck, took them already waaaaay too long to successfully launch a blank ICBM...
Shitty-Photosshop@reddit
Flexing his missiles, because their muscle is weak.
TigerX1@reddit
That's when he is the most dangerous, no? He is losing the war, not losing control over the nuclear arsenal; And I think this is the most like scenario for an escalation, beside I don't really think Trump/Stamer would do anything about a low-yield nuke in a military base
Rocketeer006@reddit
What muscles? Russia is toast.
Sputnik-overdrive@reddit
Flexing his sphincter then?
lavapig_love@reddit
I read the article. Even in wartime the three-day nuclear drill seems normal, but the potential of issuing a nationwide draft for all military-age men, this September, is not. I approved it.Â
Z3B0@reddit
A massive draft would end the russian economy. They're already lacking manpower in the civilian sector to work in factories and such. Taking half a million or more working adults in the army? You can't function like that.
lavapig_love@reddit
No they cannot. So either they widen the draft to include women, or they're gradually figuring out a peace deal is in their best interests.
Armand74@reddit
You really think Putin is willing to nuke Ukraine who’s next door and any inevitable strikes would also affect Russia directly? Nuclear fallout alone would doom his own citizens including himself worst yet for him he can certainly hide in a bunker but what would make him think that he could ever get out of it alive?
Teslanet-Lab342@reddit
Its not even loosing anymore half the moscow influencers are having a panic attack like they had no idea what was happening due to their countries self brought aggression. They are no longer loosing they have already lost and let a country the size of a pea hit moscow. All the while knowing every turn of russian aggression ukraine has found a way around so alll of what has happened to every russian company is their own fault.
they know it.
TigerX1@reddit
The amount of people saying this means nothing, even in here the sub for collapse is astounding; Reminds me a lot of global-warming deniers.
The mere fact he is doing this during a ongoing stalemate of a bloody unecessary war, is a sign of escalation. Russia is losing, but they are not out; And Ukraine is being pressured to give up by it's own supporters.
This is not nothing.
Awkward_Ostrich_4275@reddit
Putin has been Nuclear Sabre rattling for years and years. It’s nothing new, the only new bit is that they’re getting destroyed in Ukraine, which they could withdraw from at any time.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
Russia could withdraw from Ukraine at any time. BUT NOT PUTIN. If Putin withdraws from Ukraine he will inevitably lose power. Given his massive corruption, even his overseas bunker could not save him.
Reasonable_Swan9983@reddit
It's kinda interesting to me how pretty much any doom/bad news is being considered possible here except anything related to russia escalating or "winning" in the long game (not just about Ukraine). Generally I'd say russia is being laughed at everywhere, but my biggest why is how is everyone so sure.
I thought at least here we know we're in the endgame and new world order is being made. So, do the general public thinks russia's going to lose and gather up strength for another push, or they're going to collapse and never recover?
It's interesting we don't consider option 3 almost at all.
I also generally think the news we're being fed online is mostly a show and the psychopaths on the top now what they're doing.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
The core problem is that "new world order' is not by the wildest stretch of the most fevered imagination being "made". It is very rapidly breaking down and nothing is taking its place except chaos.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
We are mostly in the western sphere of influence. That's going to show its head even in communities like this, which are bit more outside of the box.
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
It is LESS than nothing! The only "supporter" that is pressuring Ukraine to give up is the USA, which has ALWAYS pressured Ukraine to give up! What do you think the Minsk Agreement was, if not an attempt to make Ukraine give up??? The USA pressure Ukraine to give to Russia the ONLY thing that would unquestionably have prevented any Russian invasion: the nukes Ukraine inherited NOT FROM RUSSIA but from the USSR.
With "friends" like the USA, who needs enemies?
Karambamamba@reddit
Their nukes would probably drop out of the sky two minutes after launch and land in their own backyard
Constitutive_Outlier@reddit
But on the good side for Russia, they would almost certainly fail to achieve a nuclear detonation.
Isootsaetsrue@reddit
wildrabbit12@reddit
Stop spreading fear, russian fear mongering means nothing
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Vladimir Putin has ordered three days of nuclear drills involving 64,000 military personnel and 7,800-plus units of equipment amid escalating attacks on Ukraine
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Vladimir Putin has ordered three days of nuclear drills involving 64,000 military personnel and 7,800-plus units of equipment amid escalating attacks on Ukraine
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