9 Days ago, Cody Moser with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center stated that only an additional 800,000 acre feet, only 13% of average, is projected to flow downstream in the Colorado River through July, after this abysmal Water Year's snowpack has finished melting and running off.

For years now, the reservoir that everyone was paying attention to was Mead, while Lake Powell has fallen to the wayside. It seems no one of importance has completed a meaningful seepage and evaporative loss study of Lake Powell since the 1980s. USU's assessment stated that the data for both Mead and Powell was too old to be reliable. In fact, USU found in 2022, that the Bureau of Reclamation's 24 Month Outlooks for the Colorado River, "in most cases, future reservoir elevation was overestimated."

Unfortunately, at this point, deadpool seems both inevitable and fast, at not one, but both major reservoirs.

Today, Lake Powell's elevation is 3,527.15. It is at just 23.31% of full pool (24,323,000 AF). That translates out to be roughly a bank of 5.67MAF. Assuming only 800KAF of water will be coming downstream from the runoff, coupled with up to an additional 1MAF to be released from Flaming Gorge to help prop it up... that means this year's annual bank only adds up to 7.47MAF. The math here, simply does not math.

Per the Colorado River Compact, Lake Powell is obligated to release 7.5MAF annually, less any reductions as mandated by more recent Contingency Plans agreed to by the lower basin states, or orders passed down from the Fed. Because the Contingency Plan (which expires at the end of this year, by the way), is based on shortage conditions at Lake Mead, and not Powell... Per the Contingency Plan, the Colorado River is simply at a Tier One Shortage Condition, which does nothing to the mandated releases for Lake Powell, it only has to do with the mandated releases for Lake Mead, and even then, it only amounts to a 590KAF flow reduction from Lake Mead. Despite the flow reductions from Lake Mead, it's water levels are continuing to drop. Lake Mead currently is at a elevation of 1052.68ft, and dropping like a rock.

Mead is down 13.46ft from the high of the year, and just in the last two weeks has lost 2.86ft. It is in complete freefall, and we aren't even in the hottest part of the summer yet, where evaporative losses mount. We are currently following a curve pattern similar to 2022, and from May 17th 2022-July 27th 2022 (the water year low), it had lost 9.81ft. For perspective... during the hottest time period prior to the monsoon picking up steam, Lake Mead was only losing 1.96ft on average every two weeks. If it continues to lose water at the same rate we are currently at now, it will lose a cumulative 14.3ft by the time July 27th hits this year, bringing Mead to an elevation of 1038.

Now, to get to the good part. While the minimum power pool at Mead is 950ft, that does not mean we have time before ultimate destruction. "Aging hydroelectric turbines are at risk of cavitation (damage caused by expanding and collapsing air bubbles in the water) when levels drop below 1,035 feet. At that elevated threshold, federal operators may be forced to shut down most of the older turbines even before the absolute minimum power pool is reached. Despite that problem, the Fed is now stuck between a rock and a hard place, and must decide whether to continue to prop Mead, or to prop Powell up. Powell is projected to possibly fall below minimum power pool (elevation 3,490) by August this year.

The Fed is talking about possibly reducing Powell's releases down to 6MAF this year to prevent the loss of hydroelectric power, and reliance of the lower penstocks to pass water through the dam, but in doing so, it may create another issue: it will likely reduce Mead's power production by 40%. Mead is mandated to release 9MAF annually, less the current Tier One shortage reduction of 590KAF. The Lower Basin States have offered up an additional 1.25MAF voluntary reduction for the next two years, but that has not yet been approved by the Fed. There is one problem. Mead currently only has 7.88MAF left in it. Even with the voluntary cuts, from Mead downward, that means 7.15MAF in deliveries, and if Powell cuts down to 6MAF in deliveries going forward... the deficit increased exponentially, and deadpool becomes all but assured, and within the next 18 months.

What happens next?

At deadpool for Mead, it means no further water delivery for California, Arizona and Mexico. It means the loss of Hydroelectric power from Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, Lake Havasu, the loss of water to cool the Nuclear Reactors at Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant near Phoenix. Technically speaking, Palo Verde uses treated wastewater from Phoenix area to cool the reactors, but with water not being assured, Phoenix area customers will have to cut consumption, which will result in less waste water to use.

Can you imagine the repercussions of the loss of 2,080 megawatts from Hoover Dam, 240 megawatts from Davis Dam (Lake Mohave), 120 megawatts from Parker Dam (Lake Havasu), 4,000 to 4,200 megawatts from Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant? A cumulative loss of approxumately 6500 megawatts, means about 6.5 million households will go without power, in the hottest desert areas of the US, where temperatures regularly are in excess of 100 degrees for 60-90 days of the year.

A few years ago I came on this sub begging for awareness and action, and had several people question the direness of the situation. The day has finally come.