Dallas County is shrinking. Reversing that trend should be a top priority
Posted by stanner5@reddit | Dallas | View on Reddit | 76 comments
From article:
"Last month the U.S. Census delivered a shock to North Texans accustomed to celebrating the region’s growth: Dallas County is now shrinking.
Based on current trends, Dallas County is likely to lose population between 2020 and 2030, making this decade the first 10-year period of demographic decline since the Civil War. If the county stays on this trajectory, North Texas will face economic headwinds similar to those of other metro areas which have suffered population losses – places like Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis.
This isn’t a new trend for Dallas proper. The city’s population has been declining since 2018. What’s new is that the decline is county-wide. The hole in the donut is growing. Addressing quality-of-life and affordability challenges that are pushing people away should become an urgent priority for North Texas leaders.
Today, America’s most successful core cities are growing by outcompeting suburbs as fun places to live more than they are by sustaining traditional job centers. This explains why Manhattan, with America’s best portfolio of restaurants, stores and arts institutions, is doing much better in population and economic terms than most other cities in the low-growth Northeast and Midwest.
But Dallas County hasn’t been great at building walkable urban neighborhoods appealing to city lovers, with the possible exception of Uptown. In recent years, Dallas has also lost much of its affordability edge relative to other cities.
The good news is that Dallas is better positioned than most cities to reverse these trends. Inflows into the wider region remain strong, and Dallas County has abundant land available for new housing.
Attracting people starts with getting the urban basics right, like public safety and schools. Dallas is making progress on both fronts. Crime rates are mostly declining, and Dallas has done better than most cities at addressing its homelessness challenges. Traditional public as well as charter schools are performing better than in most other core Texas counties."
Any-Tennis4658@reddit
Dallas county sucks and is run by clowns.
Not surprised.
bikerdude214@reddit
Put John Wiley Price in charge and I'm sure he will get all these problems fixed up lickety split. LOLOLOL
shedinja292@reddit
I put up a survey last week asking this sub what policies they think should be prioritized for downtown: https://www.reddit.com/r/Dallas/comments/1tbobqe/for_the_next_5_years_you_are_in_charge_of_policy/
Top response is "Charge a fee for vacant or surface parking lots", so trying to use a stick to push property owners that haven't done much with their land to do something.
gearpitch@reddit
Thats a fantastic idea, but it's crucial that policy like that is paired with upzoning, and easier permitting so that the parking lot owner is both punished with a fee and encouraged with easier development. There was a study about the heat-island-effect that counted 1400 acres of surface parking lots across dallas. If a small percent of those are pushed to redevelop, that could be up to 10k new housing units across the city.
shedinja292@reddit
This was specifically for Downtown, so it has the most intense zoning possible. Easier permitting idk, but I agree that if you want people to do something you gotta make it easy
Wowsers30@reddit
The region continues to sprawl as leaders continue to be "friendly to [suburban] development". This mindset brings explosive growth in undeveloped areas, and stagnation in "built out" areas.
Dallas has continued to move slow to enable more housing, with some council members and residents pretending the city is full.
gearpitch@reddit
I hate the "we're full" argument. Dallas has one of the lowest big-city densities in America. We could easily add a million new homes in dallas proper and still be less sense than LA, Chicago, DC, etc.
Now, a million new cars would be a struggle. And it's interesting to see people's assumption that new people = new cars = bad traffic = worse living conditions. I feel like we're in a crutch where we can still only envision suburban style car usage in urban areas.
Cassius_Rex@reddit
You will never hear me.complain about fewer people. I've lived here my whole life, I'm in my 50s and the population growth has had its advantages but lots of it sucks.
totallynotfromennis@reddit
The suburbs have always had a strangle hold on Dallas proper because they can out compete with affordable (read: cheaply built) housing and amenities. But that's not sustainable either, in a few decades these same suburbs will be boxed in from other suburbs, dealing with stagnation and struggling to afford infrastructure upkeep as growth gets pushed further out into the boonies. The whole region is unsustainability built and Dallas's decline is the canary in the coal mine. Dallas needs to make some drastic changes to correct that and I don't think it's possible with our current leadership, hopefully things change for the better but I have a feeling any change will be too little too late once we finally get some competent leadership.
zuqkfplmehcuvrjfgu@reddit
I partially disagree with the idea that things are unsustainable. DFW will just have more nodes of development and jobs, but Dallas will keep expanding and growing. All the densification and the projects (highway caps especially) to spread development South and East of downtown will create huge changes to the urban core over the next 20 years. Downtown and the surrounding areas will end up looking closer to a real major city.
I think that Frisco area around the DNT will probably end up being another central point of the Metroplex. When you view it like that, the development isn't unsustainable but just organizing around another core.
Prosper, Celina, etc. will just be suburbs of Frisco at that point and Plano, Allen, The Colony, etc. will still be relevant just due to proximity to corporate headquarters and jobs. That's what development and major projects seem to point to IMO.
gearpitch@reddit
True. At some point, the area between Denton and McKinney will fill out, and be even more important nodes to the overall metro than they are now. If the development action shifts west/south of downtown, there will be massive southern growth long-term too.
But the vision of dallas still being the anchor for the region as a whole requires some major, hard changes in our growth. Big infill and upzoning, TOD projects near dart, whole neighborhoods restructured to be more uniformly more dense. For example, lower greenville is nice, fairly urban, some mixed use with restaurants bars and shops on a walkable street. But 500' in either direction drops into SFH neighborhoods. Other urban cities would have MILES of lower greenvilles. There'd be ten of them block by block across that part of dallas. Our urban hotspots need to be more than a few blocks of one street, or just one intersection. It'll require much bigger vision than we currently have.
Temporary_Nail_6468@reddit
It’s happening. I live in Coppell and our schools are shrinking because housing prices are high and people are buying out in Frisco and Prosper. Happening over in Grapevine too. People on that side moving out to Justin and Keller.
PteranLaches@reddit
Frisco and Prosper housing isn’t any cheaper. But the difference is why would I buy an old renovated house for high 6 figures when I can buy a brand new built house for the same price.
I’m actively looking for housing rn and that’s been my experience.
inkydeeps@reddit
Because the older homes are built significantly better in a lot of cases. New doesn’t mean the same thing with a house as it does with cars or clothes.
PteranLaches@reddit
Lol keep believing that. I’ve literally lived in the houses that were once worth $200-300k, and now delusional suburbanites are trying to sell for $600-700k. They’re no different than new builds being put up today when it comes to quality.
inkydeeps@reddit
I’m not talking about 2000 era homes silly goose.
Hosedragger5@reddit
What era are you talking about? My rental 1980’s house was MUCH worse than my new build currently.
PteranLaches@reddit
He’s just delusional. Several of my friends also had houses built in the 80s and 90s. They’re just as bad. Not to mention that most of them have low (popcorn) ceilings, outdated standards, etc..
SgtBadManners@reddit
DFW in particular was not known for following code in the 70-80s.
Look at Arlington homes and you can’t throw a rock without hitting a house with foundation issues.
shawnkfox@reddit
Already happening here in Plano as well
Texas_Redditor@reddit
And now Frisco is closing schools because housing prices are too high and people are buying in Celina
caffpanda@reddit
Truth. Suburbs are a ponzi scheme, rapidly building infrastructure on short-term tax gains that can't possibly be maintained long-term on such a sparse tax base. The bill has already come due for many older ones around the country, it'll happen here too.
No_Host_8024@reddit
This article misses a big piece of the issue: people like to move to where their jobs are, and companies are leaving Dallas proper and moving to the suburbs. AT&T is the most prominent example, but Toyota, Charles Schwab, etc. have all shown they want something that you really can’t get in city cores: private sprawling campuses of isolation from everyone else.
shedinja292@reddit
For the first part I think it goes both ways, people move for jobs and jobs move for people. A lot of those companies moved to the population center that shifted north. Dallas would need more residential construction centrally or in the undeveloped southern part to move that center back down.
For the second part, NYC has increased from 7.5M in 1940 to 8.8M in 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_New_York_City
I do agree with your last point though, you need a good balance by being attractive for both
No_Host_8024@reddit
Sure, NYC has had compounded annual growth of 0.20% over 80 years. Dallas has had growth of 2.0%, or 10x the rate of growth for the same period.
When you ask employees what they prioritize in location, walkable urban areas do well for the youngest workers, but quality schools and single family home prices are much more important to most workers. I’m not saying that a good thing or my priority. But I just went through a relocation process for a large office of my (now former) employer and an overwhelming majority preferred moving to Frisco over staying inside the loop. Part of the reason I left.
shedinja292@reddit
Yeah I've seen that play out. Walkability and good schools don't need to be mutually exclusive, but unfortunately they often seem to be within the region (or they're really expensive). It's also hard to maintain good schools when you have a declining and aging population, since the schools will have lower funding from lower attendance, requiring them to raise property taxes to compensate.
Only way out I can see is increasing population so property tax burden can be spread out, but that would have to be done through denser housing, which likely won't lower single family house prices
AbueloOdin@reddit
There's a million issues with a million solutions: none of them are shiny so city hall won't remotely consider them.
yourdailyorwell@reddit
Yea! No one in this sub would ever dwell on a massive, expensive, and brutal financial drain instead of spending their efforts more productively!
boxofdem0ns@reddit
You mean the plague of whites DWIs, right?
yourdailyorwell@reddit
I'm talking about city hall, no idea what you're talking about.
Principle_Dramatic@reddit
Shiny city hall, you say? Let’s make that the priority!
Mr_kill_666@reddit
None of the issues line their pockets either
TheDutchTexan@reddit
You couldn't pay me to move closer to Dallas. As a matter of fact: We want further out.
AgentBlue14@reddit
Move to Tyler. Have fun out the Piney Woods.
TheDutchTexan@reddit
Nope, that's civilization.
xinstinctive@reddit
I'd be surprised if it was a North Texas issue. I thought Denton and Tarrant and Collin county were all growing. Is this not just people and companies moving to more land and better schools?
Right_Shape_8179@reddit
I’m ok with some traffic reduction lol. But, Dallas leadership has been a joke since I moved here 35 years ago. Downtown is a joke compared to every other major city. Maybe overall crime is dipping, but it’s increased in the entertainment areas. Deep Ellum’s completely gone to shit. It’s a war zone after the sun goes down. Baylor gets Deep Ellum victims almost every night. Shootings, stabbings, beatings, it’s insane. Dallas should be paying their officers way more than the surrounding areas, but they’re paying way less, so the experienced officers leave as soon as there’s an opening somewhere else. I was thinking about selling my home and renting until I decide if I’m going to leave the city, and the rents are twice my monthly mortgage for half the space!
screamingfrommyeyes@reddit
I think part of it is that the Dallas and the surrounding suburbs all seem to want to race to the bottom on courting growth and then doing virtually everything in its power to do the opposite.
Rather than trying to appease the people in Dallas who want a vibrant, walkable, culture-filled city, the leadership courts developers, cuts back alley deals and bends over backwards for the suburbs.
The biggest reason I have considered leaving recently is the way Dallas proper seems to have the spine of a jelly donut for sale to the highest bidder
BiBbw_cpl_DFW@reddit
Gosh I wonder why nobody wants to live there. Real mystery.
nicknice77@reddit
Cmon say it… say it! I wanna see the pitchforks come out
DoubleHexDrive@reddit
Friends don’t let friends live in Dallas.
space2k@reddit
Wow did you come up with that yourself?
AgentBlue14@reddit
Friends don't let friends move to Frisco and then say "I live in Dallas" when asked where they live.
Dawnzarelli@reddit
Why are you even in this sub?
LargeDietCokeNoIce@reddit
I really can’t think of one good thing about going downtown. The burbs have it all. Those folks who like the urban center are welcome to stay there.
space2k@reddit
It’s mutual.
visitingshortly@reddit
Just not true. Uptown and surrounding area vastly superior.
LargeDietCokeNoIce@reddit
Well we seem to have a difference of opinion, which is fine. But the numbers and trends described in this article suggest more people align with my sentiment.
visitingshortly@reddit
Others have pointed out the article isn’t correct and cherry picking to fit its world view.
I say this as someone coming from outside Dallas and the US. That urban core is far superior and wouldn’t go to the suburbs. Part of being a growing global city, you get high earner outsiders coming in and they have a different view of what a global city should and needs to provide.
LargeDietCokeNoIce@reddit
Well—having lived in the DFW area for 20 years you see where the growth—and the exits—are happening. It’s pretty clear. Core empties while the burbs reach towards OK.
It isn’t all about “interesting” vs curated. It’s about convenience. Downtown cores have little free parking. Free parking is everywhere in the burbs—right in front of where I need to go! Dart? Meh—it’s ok, but do you want to walk 1-4 blocks from the metro stop to your office in your business clothes in 110-degree heat? Or work in the burbs where you can park right in front of my building? Convenience wins every time.
AbueloOdin@reddit
That's the thing: it's all suburb. There isn't anything unique about any square foot outside of loop 12.
But are you really going to get people to drive an hour through Grand ArlingIrvPlanFrisisonlandwall to go to something mildly interesting? We have mildly interesting at home! It's bleached, family friendly, and curated!
ThePapercup@reddit
public safety and schools, sure- but what about the insane property taxes we pay? i think that's the crux of it- people are paying high property taxes and not feeling like they're getting value out of it so they move elsewhere. if the "solution" as proposed here is better schools and public safety how is that getting paid for? property tax increases i would wager- but Dallas has proven they can't even spend the money they already get wisely. where is all the money going?
ihatemendingwalls@reddit
Oh boohoo, homeowners are a minority of residents of the city of Dallas and all they do is bitch about the fact that they have to pay taxes to cover the massive amounts of public infrastructure that prop up their home values in the first place. You pay high property taxes because your home is worth a lot of money. Your life is so hard
UnfortunateLamp@reddit
Do renters not also pay for their landlord’s property tax through rent? I don’t think I understand your point. Property tax amounts are pretty crazy for very reasonably priced homes in my opinion (caveating that with the insane housing price inflation over the last several years). Interested in your take.
ihatemendingwalls@reddit
Yes, and they don't get to deduct property taxes from the federal income tax like homeowners do nor are they building wealth
>housing price inflation over the last several years
Homeowners want their house to operate as an investment vehicle and then the minute it skyrockete in value (due to none of their own effort) they complain that now they have to pay more taxes. They've sold themselves the lie that they're the little guy being exploited when in reality homeowners comfortably make up the the top half of the wealth distribution, even more comfortably the top 30%.
Controversial take: the rich should pay taxes
UnfortunateLamp@reddit
I understand your position better and appreciate your response. Thank you.
intransigent_bunny@reddit
We pay high property taxes because we have no local income taxes, but infrastructure and services cost a lot of money, even when poorly implemented and unevenly distributed across a city as large and sprawling as Dallas.
yourdailyorwell@reddit
An absurd amount of it is wasted on parking lots but the majority of this sub loses it over even the most modest proposals of curbing free parking.
shedinja292@reddit
You have to spread the costs over more people. Schools in particular are struggling due to rising housing costs making seniors age in place, which means less young families moving in with school age children. Schools get funding based on attendance and property taxes.
Mr_kill_666@reddit
Your right. All the extra tax money they get they just use to hire more administrative bodies. To read emails and run errands for $100k+ jobs. But like I've always said, the city of Dallas and to extension DISD are run by non city of Dallas people. They dont care about the city. Just adding to their pockets or helping their buddies get in on the "free" money.
KarmaLeon_8787@reddit
I'd want to live somewhere where a call to 911 gets a response.
space2k@reddit
Good luck. Start by trying to find a city Reddit where people don’t complain about response time.
space2k@reddit
People who love Dallas and people who hate Dallas are both fine with this.
dallasuptowner@reddit
This article is BS and I can't help but believe intentionally misleading in that is uses "Dallas proper" to refer to Dallas County when every time I see "Dallas Proper" used in this context means the city of Dallas and repeatedly refers to the city of Dallas.
The City of Dallas actually added population:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/dallascitytexas/PST045224
When the author starts out by misleading the reader about a core fact, that the city of Dallas grew in population, I can now longer trust that anything else they are saying is in good faith.
ajm1945@reddit
The traffic here in DFW is horrible on US-75, I-635 even on weekend, we have too many people here!
dallassoxfan@reddit
And predictably the redditors (synonymous with democrats) here will tell you the solution is higher taxes and spending more.
Of course, that’s the singular answer to any problem they see.
We need more walkable cities… in a city where it is 100 degrees in the shade. More dart! In a city where it’s 100 degrees in the shade.
wjackson42@reddit
I don’t believe the part about the North Texas metro as a whole. Surely Tarrant, Denton, and Collin counties aren’t losing population.
shedinja292@reddit
The article is saying they’re gaining population for now, but that population declines tend to bring economic decline, which then spreads
AdolinofAlethkar@reddit
They aren’t. This is another “the sky is falling” article when it’s not nearly the case. Dallas County could use some retraction, it’s not like people still aren’t moving to the metroplex.
Crandall is like the 2nd fastest growing city in America. Collin, Tarrant, and Denton county continue to grow to the north and west.
Now Wise, Kaufman, and Ennis county are all going gangbusters.
Confusedsoul2292@reddit
For sure not Collin county !
Wojtkie@reddit
Its expensive for not much gain? Owning a house is just committing to commuting at least an hour a day for the rest of your life. There's not much natural beauty close by the city, and everything charges an entrance fee. The one thing going for it is in paid entertainment and the job market.
LonesomeWulf@reddit
Shrink it more, I am tired of getting called for jury duty every other year living in Irving.
perpetual__ghost@reddit
Maybe we can paint over another iconic mural with a big sign that lists all of Dallas’ notable achievements…
Arrmadillo@reddit
[Wyland has entered the chat]
DairBair64@reddit
Everyone I knew growing up moved out of Dallas county; they went either north to Collin county or East to Rockwall/Kaufman county. And Im probably not the only one who's childhood friends did this.
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