Future of the 747
Posted by 2sXJ_j1@reddit | aviation | View on Reddit | 68 comments
Obviously airlines have mainly retired the 747’s, how long until cargo companies start retiring theirs. From what I can tell most cargo companies show no sign of retiring them soon.
How long do you think until cargo companies start to get rid of them?
Do you reckon they will still be commonly used in 2040/50?
Ryan1869@reddit
The economics of cargo is way different than the economics of passenger service. It's why they can still keep the DC10-MD11 in cargo service long after they've all been retired from passenger service. So I'd guess the will be used for cargo until the airframe reaches the end of its safe life.
e_pilot@reddit
the 747 classic was flying well into the 2010s as a freighter when the last of those rolling off the line in 1990, and that was with a 1:1 replacement available in the 747-400
without a viable replacement I wouldn’t be surprised to see the -400 and -8 flying well into the 2050s and beyond
fly_awayyy@reddit
Well that’s also because the 777F was just launching at that point the classics didn’t have a real good replacement before that.
RandomNick42@reddit
747 classic is still flying. Very rare now, but not gone.
e_pilot@reddit
well yeah but not in any meaningful numbers
crankbaiter11@reddit
Ok, a really dumb question. Can 747 shut down 1 or 2 engines to conserve fuel?
fly_awayyy@reddit
I mean they do on taxi lol
ContributionEasy6513@reddit
No. Never. Can it continue on 3 engines after an engine failure, potentially.
2sXJ_j1@reddit (OP)
I doubt it would have enough thrust. And it would mess up all the ETOPS ratings presumably.
OneConsideration7586@reddit
I believe that in smaller charter operation we will see the 747 operate up to 2060 and maybe beyond. Mostly due to the absence of the ability to load long cargo on the new freighters. In large daily schedule it depends on : -availability of parts -fuel price -cargo rates -replacement aircrafts But some CEOs already confirmed that they are planning to phase the 747 out around 2045.
the_Q_spice@reddit
The Beluga and Beluga XT are actually better platforms for long loading, and unlike the 747, the A300 and A330 have significantly more favorable weight and balance characteristics that allow for pretty massive lateral tolerances (up to 28,000lbs of lateral imbalance at MTOW).
And of course, the Belugas also benefit from half the fuel consumption as well.
SquareRoot123@reddit
Commercial ST operations have already stopped again though and so far Airbus has shown no sign of making the XL available to customers.
jks513@reddit
That is mostly because they use them internally so much there isn’t space in the schedule for one off cargo flights.
fly_awayyy@reddit
Their old Belguas they made An airline out of them for market flights. It was folded anyways seems like it wasn’t too successful.
eatmynasty@reddit
They’re an airplane company… if there was demand they could make more planes.
sourcefourmini@reddit
They’re unpressurized, though, which limits their cargo options somewhat, and their MTOW is substantially lower than the 747. They’re very good, and they can help fill part of the niche, but they’re not 1:1 replacements.
UNDR08@reddit
Aircraft is singular and plural. No need for the S.
Upstairs_Balance_464@reddit
It makes me crazy too. No one can write anymore, they’re all iPad kids.
UNDR08@reddit
Yet. I get downvoted. Haha
SeaMareOcean@reddit
I automatically downvote anyone who mentions downvotes.
Yes, that now includes myself.
HauntingGlass6232@reddit
Considering that UPS has yet to retire a single 747-400F we own and the fact we own the oldest 747-400F and also the highest time 747-400F I can see our 747-8F flying for 40 years also as Boeing keeps supporting them for us and we can continue sourcing parts.
Only way we get rid of these planes is another 2008 style recession and fuel prices getting ridiculously expensive. 2008 is when UPS basically retired its entire fleet of workhorses and the oldest planes we had at the time the DC-8’s and the 727’s.
If it hadn’t been for the unfortunate accident in November we would’ve still been flying our MD-11’s with the last of them being scheduled for retirement in the 2030’s similar to FedEx, this places the MD-11 well into the 40 year age once it’s retired.
Carlito_2112@reddit
Stunning_Produce_831@reddit
Are you a mechanic? Do you work at a UPS ramp?
HauntingGlass6232@reddit
I’m Aircraft Maintenance at UPS
Stunning_Produce_831@reddit
Sweet. I work at a mid size FedEx ramp, UPS is right next to us. Always a race to see who can block out first lol
latedescent@reddit
UPS pilot here - we did this exact thing a few nights at a Midwest gateway lol. We pushed first then broke right after block out 🤦♂️ had to move aside so you guys could get past
Stunning_Produce_831@reddit
Lmao. We are located where it snows a lot in the winter, and there is one de-ice pad we share with UPS on our end of the airport. Every time I am verifying one of our flights in the winter, the pilots always ask with hopeful eyes “Are we gonna beat brown to the de-ice pad tonight”
latedescent@reddit
hahah, nice. I can only imagine the slander we all toss back and forth, but end of the day we love you guys and wish you the best!
HauntingGlass6232@reddit
Same here you guys are on the same ramp but in front of us so even if we block first yall always push out and block us 💀
BigWhiteDog@reddit
With all of the passenger versions going into dry storage, I'm guessing you are going to have spare parts for decades!
martinjh99@reddit
Don't forget as well that Lufthansa and maybe others I don't know about are still flying pax 747's too.
Not sure how long they plan on keeping them going though...
atomatoflame@reddit
They are probably unhappy with the fuel burn on those right now. Always surprises me to see inefficient jets flying out of Europe.
RandomNick42@reddit
Lufthansa bet a lot on 777X and as a result has spent a lot of the last couple of years scrambling trying to keep their long haul fleet alive past what they ever planned to keep them going. In particular the 744 and A346
atomatoflame@reddit
Oh, I didn't know that. Another missed timeline by Boeing!
RandomNick42@reddit
They have also bought 787s and A350s from like 4 different cancelled or deferred orders after Covid. Shits crazy.
Inside-Finish-2128@reddit
Lufthansa has a huge investment in their own Technical Operations department to service 747s. They can do the upkeep for less than paying someone else, so much so that they do a lot of contract work for other airlines. That cost savings can offset some of the other negatives about the 747.
Any_Sale2030@reddit
Only Lufthansa Air China and Korean still fly them. 19, 9, and 5 respectively. Korean is planning to sell theirs. Unsure about Air China. Lufty probably will keep theirs longer but it’ll get increasingly expensive to keep if they’re the only one flying them. Yes there are plenty of freighters but replacement parts for passenger fittings will get harder to afford at low volumes.
Vectron383@reddit
They'll probably keep the -8s for a good while but are itching to get rid of their remaining -400s. Same story as their A340s, they'd get rid of them tomorrow if they had the new aircraft to replace them. Unfortunately Boeing and Airbus aren't able to get their newest designs out the door fast enough (or, in the case of the 777X, at all)
ContributionEasy6513@reddit
Indefinitely and for the foreseeable future. For a flight that may operate once a day or once every few days the fuel burn is fine. They can handle oversize cargo which no other Western airliner can.
Economics are very different for cargo operators: They can be picked up cheap, parts are cheap and plentiful.
Plenty of both very large and smaller 747 cargo operators all over the world.
syfari@reddit
They'll keep flying the ones with the nose doors until there aren't any planes left to cannibalize. Unless they make a version of the 777 with a swinging tail, there really isn't anything that can replace it other than the an 124.
Wings_Of_Power@reddit
The converted freighters will probably be retiring more in the next 5-10 years with more of the 777 freighter conversions starting to be certified, but long story short the 777X has to get certified first!
The utility of the factory/true freighters will probably mean they’ll get flown till their wings fall off lol
Mike__O@reddit
The 777 is not a replacement for a 747. It never was, and never will be.
charlie_30@reddit
Except my company is using it's 777-300 freighters to replace the 747 BCFs it has, so they kinda are a replacement and will be into the future?
Mike__O@reddit
Maybe in a "we can't afford to not do it" way, but they're giving up significant capability. The 777 can't carry nearly as much, nor is there a nose load option for them like the factory freighters.
charlie_30@reddit
The 300 ERSF carries more volume than even the -8F, freighters volume out before they weight out most of the time. 747-4F is at like ~22000 cubic feet, the ERSF is ~29000 cubic feet. That's capability gained.
In 5.5 years of flying the 747 I've nose loaded 3 times. It's a niche requirement, really only done it for military loads and a piece of mining equipment.
kimblem@reddit
The military use case is concerning - there’s not a good CRAF replacement and AFAIK not one planned from the major OEMs.
RandomNick42@reddit
Reddit loves to overestimate the importance of nose loading.
kimblem@reddit
The 777 P2Fs are rumored to…not be going well. Like, “can’t close both the upper and lower cargo doors if the plane is loaded” not well.
Jeb_Kenobi@reddit
747 for Cargo is gonna stay around for a long time
Vespajet@reddit
Considering there are still cargo airlines flying 747-400 freighters in significant numbers alongside 748Fs (Atlas [Who also operates a handful of passenger 747-400s.] and UPS being such examples.), the 747-8 despite being built in significantly smaller numbers, will grace the skies for at least another 2-3 decades. Most passenger 748i aircraft currently in service will presumably be converted to freighters (Korean Air has made deals to sell part of their 748i fleet to Sierra Nevada Corp. to convert into updated versions of the 747-based E-4 "Doomsday Plane" for the USAF.) assuming that such a conversion program is financially viable (Only around 79 ex-passenger 747-400s were converted into freighters before the companies offering such conversions ended the program.).
Any_Sale2030@reddit
Yes. The newest ones were built this decade. They’ll be around past 2050 easy.
flyboy_1285@reddit
The last 747 pilot hasn’t been born yet.
Mike__O@reddit
747s will fly deep into the 2050s. The only possible chance it retires sooner is if an airplane comes along that can match the volume/range that the 747 provides, which is incredibly unlikely.
2sXJ_j1@reddit (OP)
What makes you think they will last for so long? Will they not become extremely outdated and inefficient?
youtheotube2@reddit
Efficiency is very low on the list of priorities for cargo airlines
professorfunkenpunk@reddit
I just saw a mentour video on this (not sure when it’s from). Basically, for passenger airlines, they are constantly flying so fuel burn matters a lot, and the cost of new more fuel efficient planes is offset pretty fast. Cargo planes don’t fly that much (relatively) so buying a less efficient plane cheap makes sense. It’s like cars for me and my sister vs law. She drives a lot for work, and an electric saves her money. I probably average 150 miles a week, and at least on fuel efficiency, I don’t spend enough on gas to offset the purchase price of a more efficient car
CollegeStation17155@reddit
Look at the B52 and DC3... some of them will be noodling around forever
sithelephant@reddit
The 52 is currently doing a reengine with engines from bizjets.
Some 30% range extension, maybe some cargo weight increase possible.
Kseries2497@reddit
"cargo"
hcornea@reddit
Fedex and UPS are using MD-11s that are now > 25 years old. Apart from a recent grounding for design issues.
The 747 freighters are workhorses.
Mike__O@reddit
There is no other aircraft in the world (or even in development) that can do that the 747 does. Age and efficiency are irrelevant when you need a certain capability.
Aesma42@reddit
Depends if something much better or cheaper to operate makes them obsolete.
Safe_Application_465@reddit
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/atlas-air-switches-to-airbus-orders-20-a350-cargo-jets
HallEqual2433@reddit
The VC-25Bs and the E-4Cs will be flying for at least 35 years.
Stunning_Produce_831@reddit
Cargo companies still use A300’s and B757’s that are 30-40 years old. There are 747’s that were manufactured up until 2023. Cargo will run them a long time.
aucnderutresjp_1@reddit
Yeah got a good 20-25 years before they're gone.
lordtema@reddit
I think that`s underselling it given that the last one rolled off the production line in 2023. I`d say closer to 35-40 years at least.
aucnderutresjp_1@reddit
Happily corrected on that one.