Trump says China is blocking Nvidia H200 purchases despite US approval — says country 'chose not to' sanction purchases, pushing homegrown chips instead

[-]

IamGeoMan@reddit

AI chips are still making its way into China and even if not, Chinese companies set up shells in nearby countries and run their compute over there.

[-]

hackenclaw@reddit

due to the sanctions, their AI software stack will have to be very creative and efficient. They are winning this part because their researchers are force into it.

[-]

Roxalon_Prime@reddit

I think China will win the AI race long term, on the basis that the biggest long-term bottleneck of AI is not chips it's electricity/power. China introduces new power at an eye watering pace.

[-]

dingo_xd@reddit

The biggest bottleneck is talented AI researchers.

[-]

00raiser01@reddit

Well they can just rewrite the code in chinese. Who the hell is going to verify their code anyway?

[-]

Lirael_Gold@reddit

Do... do you think Chinese programmers don't code in English?

Because they do, as does 95% of the rest of the software industry.

[-]

Express_Living2264@reddit

Chinese++ They don't have it on github.

[-]

Lighthouse_seek@reddit

Strange how Singapore is supposedly the biggest user of Claude and how there are just way more Malaysian and Singaporean data centers than the demand would imply

[-]

Yup... where I live, if I go onto Facebook marketplace and type in RTX 5090 all I get are dozens of posts from random companies basically saying, "we will pay anything for 4090's and 5090's," and posted with a pic of stacks of 5090 boxes.

[-]

Stache-@reddit

I don't see how China homegrown can compete unless they stealing technology from other companies that produce products in China.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

I don't see how China homegrown can compete

Why do you believe they're fundamentally incapable of making something equivalent to others'?

[-]

Stache-@reddit

Sure they can make it but without licensing IP or forcing companies to lease tech to them, they will be way behind. Look at Intel GPU's compared to Nvidia GPU's.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

Why assume that no Chinese company can execute better than Intel? They're hardly a barometer of success..

[-]

Stache-@reddit

Intel an example to show it's not easy to catch up to Nvidia. What has China "homegrown" companies done.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

What has China "homegrown" companies done.

Huawei has done a lot. They were banned in telecom in large part for outcompeting all the incumbents, including US companies. And we can see the progress they've been making on AI accelerators. Objectively more successful than Intel's efforts in that area so far. Could argue the same for SMIC in foundry.

[-]

Stache-@reddit

Huawei has done a lot, making secret back doors into hardware for China spy agency. Lets stop acting like China doesn't steal other companies trade secrets, IP and technology.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

making secret back doors into hardware for China spy agency

Source?

[-]

Stache-@reddit

You been living under a rock?

[-]

Exist50@reddit

I'd ask you the same. Lot of claims made by internet randos like yourself, but to this day no evidence found. But if you have some proof, by all means post it.

[-]

war-and-peace@reddit

Under terms formalized in January, each H200 must pass through U.S. territory for third-party inspection before re-export to China, and Nvidia must remit a 25% fee on every sale to the U.S. Treasury.

Yea I have absolutely no idea why each h200 needs to pass through US territory for 'inspection'.

[-]

bexamous@reddit

Because tax would be illegal so ship it here and back and call it a fee.

[-]

Aggrokid@reddit

No sense rebuilding dependency on older generation products when anytime the US administration can yank the export license on a whim.

[-]

JakeTappersCat@reddit

I think they also assume, given the sudden enthusiasm for selling these chips to china (in contrast to their prior claims of the danger of selling these chips), that the US gov could be implanting some kind of tech that allows them to monitor these GPUs remotely. nvidia has been putting black box "security processors" like intel into their newest tech and nobody really knows or can find out what they do or how they work.

[-]

klipseracer@reddit

I think less likely there is deliberate spying technology, and more like they left a security vulnerability which let's them claim ignorance.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

given the sudden enthusiasm for selling these chips to china (in contrast to their prior claims of the danger of selling these chips)

That implies that the prior concern was actually about security at all. By all indications, they blocked exports under the assumption that it would cripple Chinese AI efforts and China would have to come begging for them back. That didn't happen, and worse, now there's a real threat of China becoming an AI chip export competitor itself.

I feel like people tend to give the government, even this government, more credit than is due. Sometimes it's really as simple as stupid decisions made by stupid people, and scrambling to change course long after it's obvious they fucked up. Especially in Washington, the "national security" folk are often bottom of their class in IR, if they even have a relevant background to begin with. Just to illustrate the broader point, the former Commerce Secretary once went on record claiming there was no evidence SMIC could mass manufacture 7nm chips, after they were found in the wild.

[-]

thegammaray@reddit

they blocked exports under the assumption that it would cripple Chinese AI efforts and China would have to come begging for them back. That didn't happen, and worse, now there's a real threat of China becoming an AI chip export competitor itself.

Do you believe that Chinese AI models wouldn't be farther along than they are now if they had always had unrestricted access to current-gen Nvidia chips the same way OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. have had?

[-]

Exist50@reddit

Right now, maybe not. But is right now what matters, or the trajectory (both hw and sw) over the next 10, 20, 30 years?

[-]

thegammaray@reddit

Do you believe that the US allowing Chinese companies unrestricted access to Nvidia chips would somehow prevent Chinese AI models from supremacy 30 years from now? If so, how?

[-]

Exist50@reddit

On the model side, no. But on the hardware side, Chinese companies seemed broadly comfortable with just buying Nvidia etc for the foreseeable future. But then they were forced to seriously invest in domestic solutions, and as those become more and more viable, any weight the US could have by leveraging this monopoly in the future is blown on... what exactly did this all accomplish? There's how many billions in lost revenue for American businesses, and funding for American RnD (now both going to China), and what for? So that China is moderately, and most likely temporarily, behind in frontier models?

[-]

thegammaray@reddit

If the US gave Chinese companies unrestricted access to Nvidia chips for the next 30 years and China developed superior AI software capabilities without investing in Chinese hardware alternatives to Nvidia, what leverage would that give the US? Or, leverage to prevent what from happening?

[-]

Exist50@reddit

If there was a war or some other short-term reason to set back China's AI efforts, then they could restrict the tech and maybe accomplish something. Basically a single-use "Get out of jail free" card. Doing so now, for no particular reason, seems pointless.

And again, if these restrictions can't meaningfully slow China's AI efforts, then might as well get the money in the meantime, if nothing else.

[-]

thegammaray@reddit

If there was a war or some other short-term reason to set back China's AI efforts, then they could restrict the tech and maybe accomplish something.

So in a hypothetical future where China has already developed superior AI software and has a ton of Nvidia hardware, if there was a near-term need to rein in Chinese AI, the US could do it by... preventing them from purchasing future Nvidia hardware? What would that accomplish in the short term if China already had the AI capabilities?

[-]

Exist50@reddit

So in a hypothetical future where China has already developed superior AI software and has a ton of Nvidia hardware

Can't you argue that for the current measures? They have a bunch of preexisting hardware. Obviously, timing is the most important detail.

But you know what? Happy to say there wouldn't be a point then either. So that brings me back to the original point of what exactly did these export limitations accomplish for the US. We certainly know what they did for China.

[-]

thegammaray@reddit

They have a bunch of preexisting hardware.

But you obviously don't believe that China has as much Nvidia hardware as they would have had if the US hadn't restricted access. ...Right?

I'm not even sure if I disagree with you because to be honest I can't make heads or tails of your argument. It seems to be "US restrictions haven't been as effective as their proponents had hoped at preventing China from doing a thing the US doesn't want them to do, so the US should have just given China what China needed to do even more of exactly the thing the US doesn't want China to do." Presumably that's not what you think, but even after 4 follow-up questions I can't tell the difference between that straw man and your actual line of reasoning.

Let's try this. Do you disagree with any of the statements below? (The statements being what I think are the basis of the argument used by proponents of restrictions.)

US restrictions have prevented Chinese companies from getting as much Nvidia hardware as the Chinese companies would have gotten in the absence of US restrictions.
If they had had unrestricted access to Nvidia hardware so far, Chinese companies would today have even more capable AI software than they do now.
If over the next 30 years China is forced to develop homegrown alternatives to Nvidia hardware, they will still be behind where they would have been in AI software relative to where they would have been had they been given unrestricted access to Nvidia hardware during those years.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

US restrictions have prevented Chinese companies from getting as much Nvidia hardware as the Chinese companies would have gotten in the absence of US restrictions.

Agreed.

If they had had unrestricted access to Nvidia hardware so far, Chinese companies would today have even more capable AI software than they do now.

I don't know. Half a question on what "more capable" means. Just the best of the best frontier model, or adjusted for compute requirements? The former, probably, the latter, probably not.

If over the next 30 years China is forced to develop homegrown alternatives to Nvidia hardware, they will still be behind in AI software relative to where they would have been had they been given unrestricted access to Nvidia hardware during those years.

Disagree. Even just for the software side (I think the hardware side is obvious), I think the setback is transient, and that in the long run, more money staying within the Chinese AI ecosystem and the gradual convergence (if not surpassing) of compute capabilities with the western best in class will make for a net stronger Chinese software story as well.

[-]

thegammaray@reddit

in the long run, more money staying within the Chinese AI ecosystem and the gradual convergence (if not surpassing) of compute capabilities with the western best in class will make for a net stronger Chinese software story as well.

Interesting. I can see how money staying within the Chinese AI ecosystem would help Chinese hardware companies progress faster than if the money was leaving China. But why do you think Chinese hardware companies will reach parity (and/or surpass) their non-Chinese counterparts, even with the Chinese AI ecosystem becoming a closed money loop? Isn't the development market outside of China much more moneyed than the one within China?

[-]

ouyawei@reddit

Qwen3.6 and Kimi K2.6 are pretty competitive.

[-]

Ploddit@reddit

Or the considerably more plausible explanation - Nvidia is putting pressure on the government to allow it access to the Chinese market and the US government tends to do what large companies want. Especially after the ~~bribes~~ campaign contributions come through.

[-]

ProfessionalPrincipa@reddit

Incredible self-own.

[-]

ibhoot@reddit

Simpler answer is China are interested in Blackwell & Vera Rubin that follows, not oldee gen US is pushing, they have enough of those already unofficially 😐

[-]

Boreras@reddit

Once the thing's running at home who cares. I think this is pretty stupid from China, especially if they're truly smuggling chips.

[-]

Swaggerlilyjohnson@reddit

They do not last that long (Maybe 10 years tops) and their useful lifespan is even shorter (Maybe 4-6 years).

Being dependent on foreign chips is a problem because you are constantly having to replace them and the time to build up an industry to replace them is actually much higher and more difficult then something more simple.

If someone rugpulls you on solar panels you have well over 20 years to build your own industry. Something like LFP batteries is more in the middle it's painful but you can build an industry quick enough to make it not disastrous.

If someone rugpulls you on these you are fucked. There is zero chance you can build a functioning domestic industry in 4-6 years.

[-]

Whirblewind@reddit

Framing it as "rebuilding dependency" is quite disingenuous.

[-]

ash_ninetyone@reddit

Lmao. He blocks them getting chips, so they start to make their own, then he unblocks it, and now he's complaining they no longer want to buy any?

Art of the deal

[-]

Gummyrabbit@reddit

China knows the traps that the US sets to make countries rely on them for tech. It’s also making the US richer and enables them to stay ahead of the competition with fund available for R&D. China is using a long term strategy to ensure they can dominate AI without worrying that the US could pull the plug on them.

[-]

Id1otbox@reddit

Because China does this shit themselves with strategic resources

[-]

Select_Truck3257@reddit

There is no good side anyway

[-]

Id1otbox@reddit

I will chose to live in the timeline where US is the global hedgemony instead of China every time.

[-]

Lirael_Gold@reddit

Well there's no evidence that China even intends to become a global hegemony, so you're safe.

[-]

max123246@reddit

That's patently false. They've publicly said time and time again that they want to spread their values globally. Whether their values are better than the status quo in some dimensions, that can be discussed on for ages

[-]

Exist50@reddit

They've publicly said time and time again that they want to spread their values globally

Where? Genuinely curious.

[-]

max123246@reddit

On the eve of the 25th anniversary of Macao's return to the motherland, I visited the city again, and I was gratified to see the new progress and changes there. We will unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems to maintain long-term prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macao. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same family. No one can ever sever the bond of kinship between us, and no one can ever stop China's reunification, a trend of the times.

From Xi Jinping himself.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/zyxw/202412/t20241231_11524948.html

Like there's nothing inherently wrong with saying "Hey we think our ideas are good and that other people should believe in them because we might lead the world to a better place". I do it all the time on reddit. That's what debate and discussion is.

But it's still different from saying a country is not intending to spread their values.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Civilization_Initiative

Here's their Global Civilization Initiative as well.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

You said globally. Macau and Hong Kong are inarguably Chinese territory. And whatever one can say about Taiwan, China, at least, does not view it as a separate country.

And hell, your quote isn't even talking about spreading value. Seriously, what "values" are you quoting from there?

I don't want to accuse you of bad faith, but frankly I do not see how your choice of quote remotely supports your claim of "time and time again [saying] that they want to spread their values globally".

[-]

max123246@reddit

I guess I could've led with the Global Civilization Initiative then since that supports my point better.

But I still think you can see their posturing towards Taiwan as one part of the story. The GCI sets some shared values they want other countries to agree with. But while they respect some countries' autonomy, they are more than willing to say Taiwan must remain part of China.

I don't really know enough about the history to say whose right or wrong or whatever. But I do think at some point, when 2 groups fundamentally disagree, they should separate and not attempt to claim ownership upon each other.

I just am tired of global politics in general because no one says their intentions, they just say what others want to hear. I only have the words they say and the actions they take to take a guess at true intentions.

https://www.idcpc.org.cn/ztwy/hytl/gdheng/results/202303/t20230316_151401.html

[-]

Exist50@reddit

I guess I could've led with the Global Civilization Initiative then since that supports my point better.

Does it? Certainly the wikipedia article you linked didn't give any details about "spreading Chinese values globally", and the one policy example of the "Initiative" given is milquetoast as can be.

As steps to implement its initiative, China began to expand youth exchange programs and to grant visa-free entry to citizens of a number of countries to strengthen its soft power. In addition to Thailand, the Maldives and the United Arab Emirates, these also included Western countries such as France, Germany and Italy.

Hell, if you take the opinions of Western think tanks given in the article seriously, it sounds like almost literally the exact opposite.

Western think tanks such as the Atlantic Council interpreted the initiative as an attempt to replace the “universal values” propagated by Western states, such as democracy and human rights, with absolute national sovereignty and “traditional values”.

Like, directly stating that it's trying to replace the idea of "universal values" seems pretty contradictory to "spreading values globally"...

But I do think at some point, when 2 groups fundamentally disagree, they should separate and not attempt to claim ownership upon each other.

Well, that works just fine when you're talking about other countries, but you can see the nuance when it's your own. Should half-hearted succession movements like Catalonia or Quebec be encouraged, or is the national government suppressing them? What about cases like Crimea, where people nominally voted, but under circumstances that cloud that vote's legitimacy (to put things lightly...)? And for the US, does that mean the South should have been allowed to secede, and the Civil War was unjustified? Or on a more local level, should parts of states (e.g. Eastern Oregon) be allowed to secede? I think it would be impossible to establish a meaningful, "fair" framework for territorial sovereignty, even if it's perfectly reasonable to make individual calls (e.g. I personally think Taiwan should be independent but not Catalonia).

Anyway, I'm getting sidetracked and don't want to get too political for this sub. Just don't think asking for a policy of "you handle your issues, I'll handle mine" fits your description.

[-]

Lirael_Gold@reddit

I'm going to need a link for that

China's ambitions are basically "do not get strangled by the US Navy in the case of a hot war"

"Chinese values" in terms of geopolitics is essentially securing profitable/secure trade routes.

[-]

nittanyofthings@reddit

That may actually be the problem.

[-]

yflhx@reddit

There is no American hegemony any more. The USA currently to threatens, sanctions, and/or abandons "allies", while revoking sanctions on "enemies", and it also starts pointless wars for Israel which benefit only said Israel but hurt most other countries in the world, including USA itself and most of its "allies".

[-]

nittanyofthings@reddit

He didn't say the current timeline is the one he means. The one where the Kennedys and King weren't assassinated and Reagan stayed an actor is the best.

[-]

max123246@reddit

"If my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike"

That's you right now. You sound so fucking ridiculous

[-]

max123246@reddit

You're stupid if you can say that with a straight face and have looked at the news the past 2 years

[-]

ConsistencyWelder@reddit

Personally I'm more for Europe.

[-]

gajodavenida@reddit

Because you're American or part of their inner circle (or ex-inner circle). They are both SHIT

[-]

jianh1989@reddit

With US ok.

But with US + trump + MAGA? No.

[-]

Pablogelo@reddit

They only did it as reaction to the sanctions applied by the US. If one had not eroded the trust the other wouldn't break it as well

[-]

HypNoEnigma@reddit

I hope this turns in to a good competition so right in the middle in the EU we could get decent tech from either side

[-]

ea_man@reddit

EU should take the hint about his own tech dependency from USA: Microsoft, Oracle, payment systems...

Also I don't understand why everybody in the world is dependent on ASML and still Europe gets told what to do in tech, they don't even bother to make any builder plant factories there.

[-]

F9-0021@reddit

Europe has all the building blocks it needs to get it's own tech dependence except for chip fabs, which it can use TSMC or Samsung for until it can develop domestic capability.

[-]

BatteryPoweredFriend@reddit

Foreign influence is rife in Europe and the US are the biggest one at it. They would never allow any genuine tech independence from them to happen and they'll have no qualms about interfering with things even more brazenly than either Russia or China have ever done.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

What building blocks? Where are the chip companies, OS/software companies, anything really outside of some tool vendors and research labs?

[-]

F9-0021@reddit

ARM. Linux. ASML. KDE. There's a lot that Europe has if they can put it all together.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

ARM is based in the UK, owned by the Japanese, and has RnD centers all over, including a lot in the US. Linux cannot seriously be claimed to be "European". So you're really not left with much.

If the EU were remotely serious about even reducing dependency on the US, you'd see them soliciting tech from China at minimum, and non-US players more broadly. Instead, they've been doing the opposite. There's no point pretending to care about an issue if you're not willing to do anything to address it. It's just PR.

[-]

ea_man@reddit

Also I would say, as you are not the county of Oracle and MS why don't you invest on and use open source / alternative software?

It's plain lazyness and lack of coordination and vision when you just keep shoveling money to other countries for things you can dev locally, it ain't even a matter of "data sovereignty" or "national security", it's plain common sense and economic.

I don't get it.

[-]

ea_man@reddit

Yep that's what I'm saying: they even made Linux and still they run everything on MS Windows: I don't get it.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

The EU has no political will to pursue true independence from US tech. Look at Huawei or ASML. They're won't even do business with someone unless the US gives permission. Oh, sure, every now and again the US pisses someone off and they switch a couple government PCs to Linux, but they inevitably fall right back in line. We've been through this cycle before.

[-]

tavirabon@reddit

They did this last year during the trade war. All newly constructed data processing must have at least half of their hardware designed in China. It was a policy decision to take a step back from the AI race in the short term to accelerate development of Chinese silicon.

I'd say that's good for everyone in the long term, but the US might end up doing the same once they are able to compete a la Huawei or BYD (in some categories, it will be a while before they compete at the cutting edge).

[-]

Exist50@reddit

but the US might end up doing the same once they are able to compete a la Huawei or BYD

What do you mean? The US already de facto bans a lot of Chinese tech.

[-]

Lighthouse_seek@reddit

NGL it's kinda funny how china successfully swung the convo from wanting chip sales from us companies to be expanded to the US begging for china to open their market in a single year

[-]

BatteryPoweredFriend@reddit

Art of the Deal, baby

[-]

SourceScope@reddit

Its also a muuuuch better long term strategy

[-]

tartare4562@reddit

US has proved over and over that any deal with them isn't worth the cost of the paper is written onto.

[-]

Mateorabi@reddit

TBF. Sane thing can be said about belt and road.

[-]

cgaWolf@reddit

Slightly different, B&R traps you in a dependency that later extracts wealth and reasources; but they don't randomly cancel, uncancel and recancel it.

[-]

Exist50@reddit

B&R traps you in a dependency that later extracts wealth and ressources

Tbh, is even that true? Reportedly, most terms are pretty generous, and popular with the local population. Hope you're not using that using that Sri Lankan port as an example of anything, lol.

[-]

cgaWolf@reddit

Tbf, that depends on your vantage point. My opinion is largely based on comments by some African Nations' leaders, and my own dislike of colonialism-like initiatives. There are too many similarities to how europeans and the US behaved, even though i have to admit B&R lacks the bellicose aspect.

[-]

zakats@reddit

~~US~~ Trump has proved over and over that any deal ~~with them~~ he touches isn't worth the cost of the paper that is written onto.

Ftfy

[-]

_ii_@reddit

I’m no expert, but it seems to me that the chips ban has backfired. It’s like your ex-girlfriend says she will let you touch her hands if you buy her a new purse. You turn to look at your slightly less hot new girlfriend who would do anything you asked without question and tell your ex to go pound sand.

But seriously, everyone who understands there are more than one way to train AI models and do AI inference saw that coming.

[-]

HyruleanKnight37@reddit

It has backfired in more ways than one. China is en route to become 100% self sufficient in all things related to computing- logic, memory and previously basically everything else. The only part of the puzzle left is software, which is already under way.

[-]

wh33t@reddit

Aye, it's Confucian principles at work, there's no real need to be the best at anything, being second best is perfectly fine if it means you can produce it cheaply and reliably. This is how everything comes to be made in China.

Let others take the risks and do the expensive part: innovation, then mimic what they've produced for a fraction of the cost. Very few consumers purchase the process, they purchase products.

China as a whole has embodied this concept through out several dynasties.

[-]

TBradley@reddit

They do this to ensure at least some domestic AI products are purchased. Even with no approvals plenty of Nvidia product has been finding its way to Chinese companies.

No company would dare claim they did not purchase any authorized AI products so a minimum floor of domestic purchases is set.

[-]

_Lick-My-Love-Pump_@reddit

What a tremendously bigly beautiful negotiator this Donald trump. I wonder if his NVDA stock he bought before this "China Grift" trip is going to take a hit now.

[-]

Minced-Juice@reddit

"Please buy our chips, I'm begging you" - the USA to China.

[-]

WhoTheHeckKnowsWhy@reddit

yeah no shit, people tend to earnestly look elsewhere when a supplier pulls the rug regardless of reason.

[-]

callmedaddyshark@reddit

China doesn't need the US like the US needs China

[-]

mxforest@reddit

Damage has already been done. Necessity is the mother of invention. Soon you will have researchers that adapted to low hardware availability but get abundant home grown hardware anyway.

[-]

AutoModerator@reddit

Hello sr_local! Please double check that this submission is original reporting and is not an unverified rumor or repost that does not rise to the standards of /r/hardware. If this link is reporting on the work of another site/source or is an unverified rumor, please delete this submission. If this warning is in error, please report this comment and we will remove it.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.