[Hypothetical Question] In 2002, instead of Erdoğan, another young, charismatic liberal democrat or social democrat comes to power in Turkey, serves as prime minister for 3–4 terms, then lost elections and steps down. What would Turkey look like today?
Posted by Empty-Pace-4228@reddit | AskBalkans | View on Reddit | 117 comments
![[Hypothetical Question] In 2002, instead of Erdoğan, another young, charismatic liberal democrat or social democrat comes to power in Turkey, serves as prime minister for 3–4 terms, then lost elections and steps down. What would Turkey look like today?](https://i.redd.it/87yvd8q6gc1h1.jpeg)
pasobordo@reddit
But he was that liberal democrat until 2013. He even mentioned about, and supported LGBT rights back then. He would have probably imprisoned that version of himself, now.
monurt@reddit
i think almost same shit would happen but this time Erdogan would be more liberal. even taxes on alcohol would be same or maybe even worse. real problem is someone serving that long. we would have constructions every fuckin corner of every city but still children would die in their homes because of some unqualified müteahhits greed.
minus_uu_ee@reddit
US was pushing for these Islamist since the beginning of Bush administration. They were already systematically placing their people on municipality level. Maybe the Gülen movement would have been the successors, but there is no getting rid of these people without pushing back. Turkish „liberals“ are hard nationalists, they don’t have that much resolve to go against anything then leftist students with 0 power.
9guyKguy9@reddit
This I expect them to be very hard on Greece.
Also Turkey would have less soft power
Kitchen_Top_7259@reddit
Gulen? You mean the guy who killed a bunch of innocent people?
CommunicationTop8777@reddit
You are ignorant.
FinalLightNL@reddit
Anything but the gulen lmao, i’ll take erdogan over that pos that wants turkeys destruction.
i_am_someone_or_am_i@reddit
An islamist, probably still erdoğan would win. Islamist factions victory, and it leading into an authoritarian regime was inevitable, thanks to Evren. He made all the preparation, which makes sense considering he came to power with a american funded coup. It was probably by design from his owners in cia.
inki471@reddit
The more I think about Evren’s actions the more I hate him. Aside from the crimes he has committed, he basically doomed the country. Banned Kurdish which was a breaking point for the rise of PKK, opened the door the Islamism in politics and we all know where that led to, basically massacred the Turkish left which still has not recovered to this day, and so on.
i_am_someone_or_am_i@reddit
And again, all of that was by design. Cia guarenteed Turkey's position as an us ally for good.
_wassap_@reddit
he did a lot for turkey, people are just way to simple minded for that debate tho.
Nothing is perfect, you can def argue he "overstayed" his time as pm. Turkey would never have been Austria or anywhere close regardless of Erdogan or not- the geopolitics run much deeper.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
From 2002 to 2015, he was just a corrupt politician who actually gave efforts in some fields, after 2015 he just became a moderate version of putin.
inki471@reddit
Even saying he gave efforts is an overstatement. The only reason economy stayed stable during that time is because he used Kemal Derviş’s policies. The only field he gave efforts in is his public image.
btweenthatormohammad@reddit
Erdogan coming to power was a net positive for Turkey in his first couple of terms so people claiming here that Turkey would be an utopia are delusional. He stayed too long in power, we should have a policy that rotates politicians every 8 years or so. Ideal scenario would be Erdogan staying 2 terms and someone else replacing him after that.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
What if somebody better comes in this alternate universe?
btweenthatormohammad@reddit
If someone better comes, it would be better. It's like asking what would be having more money like, it would be like being richer or less poor.
ZedGenius@reddit
btweenthatormohammad@reddit
Funny Enough, Erdoğan was probably the one that was most eager to leave Cyprus.
ZedGenius@reddit
My point wasn't to address Cyprus at all, just posted an anti meme reply of turkey looking like a map of turkey
btweenthatormohammad@reddit
Ah, I've read the other comment and thought your comment was about Cyprus for some reason. I wouldn't have thought of that without other comment, Northern Cyprus is not even a part of Turkey so that wouldn't have made sense.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
No government would withdraw from Cyprus if the federation is not accepted
RealProjectivePlane@reddit
Only if
btweenthatormohammad@reddit
He'd have defünitely sold Hagia Sophia to Greeks, lol.
Young_Owl99@reddit
Ankara would be sold to Greece.
btweenthatormohammad@reddit
If they had the money of course
R_Scoops@reddit
No one wants Ankara
Young_Owl99@reddit
Yes that’s the point. He hated Ankara.
inki471@reddit
“Ankara is God’s darned place”
R_Scoops@reddit
Oh I didn’t see the pic above
RealProjectivePlane@reddit
Ankarayı kapatıp gitsek herkes rahatlar
i_am_someone_or_am_i@reddit
Fucking satab on earth.
Faxtrampant@reddit
We would be like Poland.
inki471@reddit
This is one of the better answers. A conservative country that has developed semi recently, is basically what Turkey would be if we had the right governments since early 2000s.
madeinsrbua@reddit
Considering the steam Turkey gathered on in the early 2000s with crazy expansion of light manufacturing and billions pouring back from diaspora, and fairly quick modernisation they went through, if it wasn't for the watermelon seller populist, Turkey would be in EU by now for sure 1/1.
-Against-All-Gods-@reddit
Let me be frank: Turkey doesn't have any chance of entering EU. Hell will freeze over sooner than Germany and France give up their position of being the largest parliamentary and economic forces within the EU.
The candidate status was only awarded because UK twisted their arms. Ever since then, France and Germany have been trying to wiggle out of the accession process.
But it doesn't matter anyway since Greece managed to blackmail EU into admitting Cyprus as a member with veto power.
Crucco@reddit
Turkey can get into the EU when they give back the land they stole from Greece and make amends for the centuries of atrocities they inflicted to the Balkans. So, never.
trisul-108@reddit
Yes, but that also coincided with Erdogan trying to morph Turkey into a Sultanate. The question was what if that did not happen and Turkey continued on the path towards European values.
-Against-All-Gods-@reddit
Nothing would change. The problem isn't that Turkey morphed into a Sultanate (just like it wasn't a problem that Hungary morphed into a feudal state until they started being annoying). The problem is that Turkey has a population bigger than Germany and would have the fifth largest economy.
trisul-108@reddit
That sounds like a plus for France and Germany. A huge expanded market with great demographics. Poland is now no. 6.
-Against-All-Gods-@reddit
Poland, having a smaller population than Spain with worse demographics, has no chance to outvote them.
trisul-108@reddit
They could never outvote Germany because the number of seats in the EU Parliament is capped at 96. Turkey would get as many as Germany.
Critical-Ad-8507@reddit
With how much influence the immigrants are getting there,might need to check their take on this as well.
tabulasomnia@reddit
immigrant influence in turkish politics hasn't been felt yet - not many citizens/voters. this is of course gonna change in time.
tabulasomnia@reddit
this is all that needs to be said. all we can hope for is strong collaboration and cooperation a la norway, and I believe that is all we should aim for as well. being tangled into eu bureacracy would never let us properly deal with the shithole that we live next to that is the middle east.
jelle814@reddit
I doubt it, I think a lot of the Western European countries would have feared taking in such a large population, both democratically as demographically
jhonnytheyank@reddit
Says a Scandinavian who literally took in millions of completely different demographics ( Arabs) in just half a decade. And proudly.
uhm_akshually@reddit
You are lying. No Scandinavian country has taken millions of Arabs.
Norway has not taken many Arab immigrants, nor has Denmark. Sweden has.
So in summary, you are lying and also pretending like Sweden should be representative for all of Scandinavia, and Europe even. And I'm not sure the Swedes are all that proud at this point. How has that generosity paid off????
Temporary-Cicada-392@reddit
What a weird comeback
jhonnytheyank@reddit
His excuse of why eu is cautious on turkey and turkish deserved it kinda imho.
madeinsrbua@reddit
If everything continued as was (without Erdogan obv) and Turkey still wasn't in EU (For the reasons you mentioned) they would accept Turkey to EU moment Russia invaded Ukraine.
trisul-108@reddit
I think you are right. Even before that, a candidate with democracy, rule of law and respect for human rights that also provides obvious benefits would be difficult for the EU to block. All the other blocked candidates are weak on these fundamentals. And when fundamentals fail, the EU no longer functions, as we have seen with Hungary.
TanktopSamurai@reddit
AKP turn away from EU was due to the stalling of the ascension process. At least partially.
Turkish economy began losing steam around 2012. The coup attempt, the post-2016 PKK conflict and disagreements over Syria caused it to stall.
So the question is, would this SocDem government face the same or similar issues?
jhonnytheyank@reddit
No coup atleast. Other still remain. The lira would breathe though because of influx of euro.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Wait a min, it's like in 2004 and 2007 many Balkan countries enter but Turkey didn't? What would have changed afters?
Afaik croatia entered in 2013
madeinsrbua@reddit
Only reason turkey never joined EU post 2000s is Erdogan and I can guarantee that.
Politicians like him would never survive in power without total control of the society and economy.
VisibleReport5008@reddit
Erdoğan did tried to join EU actually.
- Erdoğan was a supporter and pushed the annan plan for cyprus issue.
- Tried normalization with armenia.
- Started the kurdish issue peace talks.
madeinsrbua@reddit
See that's the reason
It's all populist smoke and shadow tactics, he started everything and finished nothing thinking just starting to resolve internal end external issues Turkey had/has would be enough to convince EU to let them in.
Unlike his voter base empty talks isn't enough.
NorthWelcome1626@reddit
Annan plan was refused by Greeks.
Armenia was the one demanding things while being the powerless country and invading Azerbaijan, they shot their own foot with that. 20 years later we see their economy.
Kurdish issue was never going to work, because Kurds support PKK and PKK wanted lands.
None of these problems are caused by Turkey.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Well maybe, it may be possible without him but still would take reaally long time.
Why Serbia didn't join?
madeinsrbua@reddit
Because we have same type of politician as you in power.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Like Erdoğan?
I listened a few interviews of Vucic and his demeanour is quiet charismatic.
madeinsrbua@reddit
He is only charismatic to outsiders and demented old folk in Serbia
Only way he knows how to speak since he is an narcissist is if you let him speak a monologue, he never had any debates and does quite badly in them.
Civil_Journalist100@reddit
Do you really believe that EU would let Serbia in? I doubt that
madeinsrbua@reddit
That's not what I wrote.
Civil_Journalist100@reddit
No, I am just frankly asking
No-Heart3432@reddit
Let me be honest. Nothing different. We don't choose who is gonna rule this country. Selected specific actors who has been chosen by stronger nation aka US decide who's gonna lead the country. Democracy and etc are just cover.
Let me tell you the last election. Erdogan had a opposing group which is a coalition of 6 party. Those 6 party leader are turned Erdogan's party short time after the election. So we had a election between Erdogan vs the leaders who works for Erdogan. Before that it was rigged but nobody questioned despite so many things happened during the election. Yet Trump says the truth during a press conference. Erdogan doesn't know how to speak English so he didn't understand. Even he understands nothing will change. The election before was not different.
So basically Erdogan or something else, nothing matters. Whatever US decides will rule this country.
CommunicationTop8777@reddit
That is a Turkey that wouldn't deserve to exist. I would feel such hatred towards that Turkey, that even roving gangs of genocidal crusaders would not make me feel bad.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
lol, bizarre. Why?
CommunicationTop8777@reddit
Because that imaginary Turkey could not justify it's existence, and I always enjoy watching the winds of history sweep such contradictions into forgotten footnotes of history books
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
"justify it's existence" can you elaborate? In what sense?
wolfadamm@reddit
No, Turkey still wouldnt be in Europe. Thats not about who is in power, thats about not letting a big country with muslim population and strong army into European parliament. So, after all thousands of years its still about religion.
tabulasomnia@reddit
it's not about religion at all. it's about size. if we joined eu, turkey would be top five (if not top three) in every important metric that matters - population, size of economy, military strength etc. this will never be acceptable for france and germany. it wouldn't be acceptable if every single muslim turk was baptised tomorrow.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
In other fields?
wolfadamm@reddit
Economy would be better for sure, anyone else couldnt be reelected with these tax rates. :D For others, I honestly dont know. Maybe Turkey could stay more like the old Turkey, in 90s or 00s. Less corrupt, less aggressive, less chaotic. Maybe it was possible, I dont know.
Mysterious_Might3977@reddit
I'm surprised nobody in the comments has posted the futuristic utopia meme image so far.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Do you think it would have been a place that attracts expats, an economical-security partner for Europe? (Without membership which I am against)
Mysterious_Might3977@reddit
Idk dude, I'm here just to post the meme. /jk
On a more serious note though, Turkey kinda already is all that...
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Yes but you don't understand...
sylasnord@reddit
It’d be economically much more stronger, definitely much more democratic and relatively stable but not an EU member.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Tbh, if I hada magical wand in my hand, I'd rather make Turkey like South Korea rather than a EU country.
sylasnord@reddit
Me too. Or like Germany but still nationalistic (civic) with warm people.
Germans are lifeless 💀
wiglafofpinwick@reddit
Turkey could have nearly doubled it's GDP of today, but still couldn't become EU member. Most probably they would have better integration to EU as trade and military partners but no membership. Being a "Turk" is the reason for other EU members + the large population which would reduce the weight of Germany-France in the Union.
Ill_Chicken550@reddit
Insert photo of futuristic city
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
You think Turkey would have been a major economy and diplomatic&military partner in Europe in this alternative scenario?
Critical-Ad-8507@reddit
Probably like a mix between what Turkey is now,and what US was around 2021-2024.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
in what sense?
Critical-Ad-8507@reddit
In the social sense.
RestaurantBoring417@reddit
A secular somewhat democratic southern european country with a majority muslim population, like Bosnia but much more geopolitically relevant.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Are you Turkish?
NoDevice2698@reddit
Cem Uzan
thrac1an@reddit
It hurts to think about it. It would be so awesome
Iapetus404@reddit
Its like dilemma, if Hitler hadn't been rejected from art school, he wouldn't have become a dictator but a painter!
K-Hunter-@reddit
dicpainter?
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
But what would he become? Football player?
Iapetus404@reddit
Erdi? king of watermelons!
Meloy_01@reddit
An alternate universe so insane that I don't even have an idea😅
yalnzaylak@reddit
goated intp pfp btw
Darjuz96@reddit
probably turkey would be really near to EU adhesion
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
As an alternative to Erdoğan;
Maybe we can imagine Recep Yazıcıoğlu or Mehmet Zeki Sezer instead?
Ninevolts@reddit
We were pushing for Kemal Dervis in 2002. Half Albanian, half German, Princeton alum, dude had an exceptional resume. And he's so good at tennis lol. Rip!
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
I think a guy like Recep Yazıcıoğlu would have been way better to be the PM for 2-3 terms at least
Ninevolts@reddit
He was a right wing politician. Iirc his son was a mp from akp and supported RTE for years. I don't think he'd be good fit for saving the country from the 1999 crisis. EU saved Turkey from that, Turkey needed a leader that would put it in the union as fast as possible. Dervis was much better for for that role. His work started the accession process in 2005 anyway.
brnkse@reddit
Wakanda
Silly-Avocado-@reddit
Best answer so far
sheynzonna@reddit
R.T.E would still be selling kebaps.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
Watermelons*
sheynzonna@reddit
Wasn't it simit? Kebaps was a joke tbh.
Ornery-Garlic-8218@reddit
Probably nothing would be different, politics are more have to do with, especially in turkey, with whatever byzantine politics are talked on halls and close to media meetings, along with outside influence. If nothing except erdogan changes, probably nothing changes other than head figure of country
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
It would be radically different. The real question is, to what extent and in which fields.
Ornery-Garlic-8218@reddit
I disagree, if nothing changes other than him erdogan would go and yerebatan would come to be supported by whoever supported erdo-change would be minimal. He himself started as kinda social democrat kinda islamist men and called on ex chp deputies.
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
I think you misunderstood my question by saying "erdogan would go and yerebatan would come to be supported by whoever supported erdo-change would be minimal" because my title implies that somebody who isn't like him comes, who is different I even lef commentary
"As an alternative to Erdoğan;
Maybe we can imagine Recep Yazıcıoğlu or Mehmet Zeki Sezer instead?"
Ornery-Garlic-8218@reddit
No I do understand your question, I meant to say that even if complete opposite of him came to power he wouldnt be independent of reality on the ground, that being whoever supported erdo-that could lure our new leader, or whatever influenced politics until today or sensibilities/interests of the groups that he have to listen to win the votes .
New leader will not be free of any of that. And politics have much to do with that rather than figureheads.
metokara09@reddit
Germans would move there.
Deep-Ad4183@reddit
There would be fewer mosques
BankResident4559@reddit
Probably would be around czechia or austria's prosperity imo
Empty-Pace-4228@reddit (OP)
I'd say Hungary, it fits better also sociologically.
SilverThink9341@reddit
Better