Informative Graphs for El Niño
Posted by Fearless-Try-261@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 28 comments
Been looking for an article that collates all the data we have so far and this one is it. There's been a lot of talk about the 1877 El Niño related famine as a comparison to this El Niño-- I was surprised to see that the 1877 one had lower peak anomalies compared to the 2016 El Niño. *However* as shown in the projections, we are almost definitely surpassing the 2016 Super El Niño.
Of course, as many have pointed out, the 1877 famine was pre-globalization supply routes, and that definitely lessened the impact in 2016. But with the major disruption to global supply routes right now, along with this El Niño tracking at unprecedented magnitudes, it doesn't look good.
daviddjg0033@reddit
2015 ran off to levels still not surpassed today if I recall the end if 2015 had record enso region off the chart heat.
hysys_whisperer@reddit
You don't need to guess. Here is the chart showing niño temps are in uncharted territory for this time of year
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4
daviddjg0033@reddit
right! click on the upper right enso 2015 > any year. while global oceans > 21C
if 2025 does a 2015 or w/e the hubub about 18## famine.
my mind is wrapping around what the global ocean T > my local Tmin may never be under 80F which is pain.
Airilsai@reddit
Scroll through the land surface temp average chart (https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world) starting with 2016, going forward. Ominous stuff.
daviddjg0033@reddit
why is that dark line that is 2026 above any prior may 14th than that data set?
i pay attention to the sea because seas are more mass than the atmosphere. that is the air down here all the way up to the stratosphere.
is that correct?
the 100m detection is broad and has data going back a ways. that is correct.
i do use drought.gov because my state was parched and its reliable.
i missed the air temperatures and now i see its trending the wrong way.
Airilsai@reddit
Why? Because after winding up a punch for the last year or so, the ocean is now dumping its stored energy into the atmosphere and heating up temperatures over land.
Fearless-Try-261@reddit (OP)
This is just the ramp up right now.
dashingsauce@reddit
Do we have any data on the relationship between El Niño events and infectious disease spread in the following years?
Pythia007@reddit
According to the Australian BOM “ The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral although there are signs of possible El Niño development.” I mean, it’s screamingly obvious we are heading for a strong El Niño but they are always super conservative.
incognitochaud@reddit
Sometimes it blows my mind that the only people I hear discussing this topic is a handful of people in a subreddit. Nowhere else do I hear about all this.
Malibone@reddit
That’s because according to NOAA May data, the “Super El Niño” has a 1 in 3 chance of actually happening.
Whether it will happen or not it remains to be seen. Other orgs worldwide are less conservative with their predictions. That’s what OP is posting. Not bashing or anything just giving facts.
Fearless-Try-261@reddit (OP)
Source? I'm not sure if I trust NOAA in this administration. IIRC many satellite trackers were shutdown earlier this year.
Fearless-Try-261@reddit (OP)
James Hansen is talking about it, that's the news I'm following. But yeah I mean the upcoming El Nino is not exactly the top news story in MSM
kingtacticool@reddit
This is projected to be the strongest El Nino since recording began in the late 1800s. Nobody alive, on earth, has witnessed what we are about to go through. The heat plume stretches all the way to Papua New Guinea
kingtacticool@reddit
This is also a good time to point out that we are looking at a record low wheat harvest in the US and many farmers cannot afford fertilizer due to the war in Iran.
Oh, and the US Strategic Grain Stockpile was exhausted in 2000, never replenished and now there is just some numbers in a bank account so we can just buy the Grain we need on the open market. Thank god famines dont exist or anything.
Oh, another thing, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is going to be down to 30% capacity when this latest release finishes.
Good luck, yall.
nubsuo@reddit
The Canadian prairies are only at 16% crops planted when we are usually around 28% planted by this time. We are behind and getting more moisture and frost conditions this weekend. There’s a possibility of a bumper crop in some areas but in general places are either dry (western portion) or flooding (eastern portion), there’s no in between right now.
kingtacticool@reddit
Its wild to me that collapse hasn't even really started and we are already out of our reserves or the reserves never existed in the first place.
When shit finally does get real it's going to get super real.
lost_horizons@reddit
When does the SPR release end? Why would it end? The oil crisis is t exactly over.
kingtacticool@reddit
He said he was going to release 172 million barrels and there was only 400 million to begin with. I think 50 something million have been released so far. They can only pump something like 6-8 million a week
lost_horizons@reddit
Thanks for the reply, that was helpful.
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
After i've looked at that forecast on one of yesterday's post i came to a conclusion that the European continent is going to be facing insane weather shifts. And i live in a European country (Serbia), mind you.
HH-Vectorjoe@reddit
Another european here (germany). What kind of shifts do you expect? I know that el nino years tend to cool europe, so we are ecpected to have a wet and cokd summrr right? But it will not be as catastrophic to our grain harvest than a hot dry summer, correct?
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
There will probably be more dry and hot days over days with rain, not to mention supercellular storms. One happened earlier this week in my country (Serbia).
daviddjg0033@reddit
the latter is more salient. citrus farmers forced to spray water to save plants because the ice > letting them die. hot dry summers in Siberia or the Fire season chart of Canada. that is if it exists because Putin would alrrady be in Berlin if drone adaptation...
HH-Vectorjoe@reddit
This time they need to come through poland, not us, so i guess we are save..
Konradleijon@reddit
This is bad
Julian_Thorne@reddit
It's like a cosmic claw swept across the globe
gmuslera@reddit
It won't be just another instance, maybe a bit stronger than usual, of a cyclic event. The whole system is changing, far more energy in the climate system, higher absolute sea temperatures, not sure if absolute less sea ice surface by then, at some point that oscillation will cross some boundaries and turn into something else. Destabilizing a complex system you depend on usually ends very badly.