Russia’s Offensive Slows to a Crawl: At Current Pace, Capturing Donbas Would Take 30 Years
Posted by polymute@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 279 comments
TearOpenTheVault@reddit
Have we seriously not learnt anything from the century or so of attrition trench conflict? It’s hard to take and exploit territory in a breakthrough until suddenly all at once it isn’t because one of the fronts has collapsed. Or are we pretending WW1 ended when the Entente slowly dug their way to Berlin?
Azzagtot@reddit
You see, it's very convenient to point and laugh at Russia for winning too slowly. It's all information warfare and propaganda battles.
Guaire1@reddit
Winning? Mate russia lost when their kiev offensive failed misserable. Anything after has been dragging on a conflict for no reason whatsoever
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Ukrainians don't see it that way....
https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukrainian-support-war-effort-collapses.aspx
Or are they just tired of winning so much?
Guaire1@reddit
My point is that regardless of what happens in the future, Russia will have undeniably lost, even if it suddenly were only to win battle after battle, its economy has been strangled, its population already growing small even before the war is shrinking faster than ever before, not helped by the massive brain drain taking place. And any "victory" it may have will result in it gaining wartorn territory whose population hates it.
So yes, it lost, it cannot hope to gain anything meaningful from the war, it can only hope to not lose as much as it possibly could. And the only way it would stop losing as much, would be a full on retreat, which no one in the russian government wants to do.
kolitics@reddit
Gaining territory without triggering war with NATO so successfully that Europe thinks they “undeniably lost.”
Guaire1@reddit
Getting your economy blown up, losing a million people in brain drain, and a similar amount in casualtyies getting your army gutted out of any advanced technology and i mentioned once again having your economy in dissarray all in exchange of a few wartorn oblasts whose population hates you is not winning in a meaningful way.
kolitics@reddit
Economies recover, babies are born, but God's not making any more land.
Guaire1@reddit
Babies are blatantly not being born in Russia, the nation's population has been constantly shrinking for decades now. Its even worse than the geriatric home that is Japan, and they put themselves in an even worse position due to the war.
As for the economy, Russia's economy is in such downturn that its hard to say if it will be able to recover in any meaningful amount of time. Liquid reserves, which us what propped it up since tge war begun, are starting to thin out, and now ukraine regularly blows up industries even many km away from the frontlines, adding further pressure to Russia
kolitics@reddit
Sounds like the sort of problem that might benefit from adding an agricultural and industrial heartland to your territory.
Guaire1@reddit
Adding wartorn territory whose population helps you doesnt in fact help in what i mentioned.
kolitics@reddit
Adding some of the most fertile farmland on the planet and an industrial area full of natural resources will probably help when they war is over. They are already developing it and connecting it with rail.
Guaire1@reddit
They arent developing shit, they are trying to fix what they themselves broke, and finding out that they broke so much that
And once again, the population in the area actively hates russia and is waging a guerrilla campaign against them
Azzagtot@reddit
That sounded like you are really hurt. Lets cover that wound with salt.
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/welcome-new-russia-how-kremlin-is-remaking-occupied-ukraine-2026-03-26/
fretnbel@reddit
Potemkin villages bruh
kolitics@reddit
Perhaps they should just advance backwards so you can say they are in retreat.
psmgx@reddit
tell that to the Dutch
Zeydon@reddit
If they can guarantee US missiles aren't parked 100 miles from Moscow, they'd consider that a victory.
My purely speculative guess is the pie in the sky dream would be for a re-unified Ukraine with the Banderites removed from power and their ability to form militias barred, the expulsion of Western NGOs, etc. and whatever other guarantees would be needed to ensure the govt. remains loyal to Moscow. But a much more realistic outcome would be a divided Ukraine, where they control the geographic chokepoint, a means of preventing Crimea from being cut off from freshwater, no more tariffs on oil moving to the EU etc. Keep in mind, regarding the populace, many of those in previously annexed regions (Donbass), see Russia as the ones who saved them from the Banderites who'd been carrying out terror attacks and missile strikes against them since 2014. And the longer this war drags on, the more families torn apart by roaming press gangs in Western Ukraine, the more public sentiment may turn against Banderites there as well.
Guaire1@reddit
Your mention of banderites makes it clear you have no idea what you are talking about. And that ypu are just regurgitating russian propaganda.
Also the bit on US missiles is dumb, russia is a nuclear power. This meams that NATO never even concieved actual military actiom, since ir would meam the destruction of much of the world in nuclear hellfire.
Zeydon@reddit
You thinking the acknowledgment of the existence of Banderites is Russian propaganda "makes it clear you have no idea what you are talking about."
What do you think Ukraine is fighting Russia with right now? This war would have been over long ago were it not for US weapons and intelligence sharing.
Guaire1@reddit
Giving material to a proxy is not, in fact, actively fighting russia. Because no one actually wanted to actually fight Russia, and ukraine pre invasion was literally unable to join NATO. It should also be noted that, of course, US aid at the moment is almost zero, has been almost zero since trump got elected.
Zeydon@reddit
I am aware of the distinction between a proxy war and a hot war. In fact, I've said elsewhere in this thread before your reply that I doubted the US would ever escalate this to a hot war with Russia.
I don't know why you think me saying "US weapons" means I think the US is firing those weapons when you clearly understand based on your latest comment that Ukraine can fire US weapons without it being counted as the US firinf those weapons.
As for your other point, just keep in mind:
And there's nothing stopping the admin from approving more funding should they think there is still benefit of perpetuating the war when a point is reached where the funding is about to dry up. Trump certainly isn't constrained by being consistent on any matter, ever.
Guaire1@reddit
Mate, the point you were making is that russia was in dnaged of having US missiles pointing to its heartland, and my rebutal was very simple. First that Ukraine was never before in danger of joining NATo before the ukranian invasion, so there was never any threat of NATO missiles pointing to moscow, and that NATO missiles pointing to moscow is also irrelevant in any strategic decision making, since no one was actually gonna attack Russia directly-
You only brought up the fact that ukraine is being armed by NATO, which i never argued against, because you couldnt argue against my rebutals. Ukraine being armed by NATo is only putin's fault, for starting a war for chauvinistic reasons rather than geopolitical considerations (zelensky was elected in a pro russian platform after all)
> Trump certainly isn't constrained by being consistent on any matter, ev
Trump has been consistently pro putin since his first term, just as he has been consistently pro israel and consistently pro war in Iran, there are points where he trully is easy to predict. And it makes sense that trump puting and bibi are often agreeing, they are three little fascists.
Zeydon@reddit
I mentioned the absence of Western missiles 100 miles from Moscow as a "win" for Russia because you stated you could not conceive of any meaningful gains from this war. As for your rebuttals, you didn't state any of this:
until just now, so how am I supposed to rebut your arguments before you make them? Mentioning security guarantees as a "win" when you couldn't envision any "wins" for Russia is directly relevant to the conversation at that time.
But if you want to have this other conversation, then yes, NATO encroachment has been an ongoing concern for Russia for decades. And this encroachment, despite not becoming a NATO member, became very real post-Euromaidan.
Guaire1@reddit
I did mention both those points. So fuck off
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
There are shorter ways to say that you are too partisan to care about reality... "Nothing could change my mind" is a position of a brainwashed moron.
Guaire1@reddit
I didnt say nothint coule change my mind. I said that russia has put itself in such an awful solution that even the most generous military success would still mean a poorer weaker country than before the invasion
redridingoops@reddit
They aren't winning, this isn't a zero-sum game, nobody is winning, neither Russia nor Ukraine.
Except Russia can stop at any given time and leave, yet doesn't.
PerforatedPie@reddit
Those who trade weapons are most certainly winning.
Also Russia's invasion indefinitely postponed the civil trial against PrivatBank's former owners, which was allegedly where a shitton of Russian money was being laundered into the rest of the world, to people who bought property across Europe and the south east US. Discovery on that trial would have been very revealing.
redridingoops@reddit
Oh yeah big time !
Netanyahu, Epstein files, PrivatBank...So many trials sadly postponed, that's some bad luck :(
zer1223@reddit
Wars aren't a popularity contest
If you go in with a massively bigger force and then can't even take a couple provinces you're certainly not winning. And public percept has no bearing on that fact.
studentoo925@reddit
Well, ru**ia did call its army the best/second best army in the world for as long as I can remember, while Ukraine didn't have a functioning army in 2014, so it's not convenient to laugh at them, it's a necessity
If they didn't want to get embarrassed, they shouldn't have started a war
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Its not about embarrassment, it is the exact type of thing you are doing is killing support for Ukraine. "Oh Russia is a joke, Ukraine doesn't need more support since its already winning".
We need to be honest that Ukraine is getting its teeth kicked in and if we don't step in, potentially directly, its going to lose.
Zeydon@reddit
Sacrificing Ukraine to weaken Russia is one thing, but a hot war with US boots on the ground would be very different in terms of cost. I mean anything's possible with this administration, but I'd think the failure in Iran might be enough of a humility check to keep that from happening. Unless they really are like, well the global economy is screwed anyhow, so eff it, WW3 time.
TrizzyG@reddit
I don't think the Iran war would give any level-headed person the idea that the US military can't come in and stomp on anything it wants. What it has shown, again (and again), is how incompetent the Trump administration is from a strategic and diplomatic standpoint.
As far as military matters go, I don't know anyone else who could have almost undisputed air dominance against a country of 100 million people that has a military rife with air defense, rockets and missiles. Pointing to a handful of planes that got destroyed/damaged is not the win Iranian regime supporters were hoping for, at least not for what it cost them.
Zeydon@reddit
That was never up for debate. But what Iran has shown is that the US cannot do this without greatly significant consequences when against an adversary with the means to fight back. Iran has shown it has the capacity to cause significant damage to US military targets, and also the damage it can do to the global economy when targeted by a belligerent aggressor. Backing down looks bad and Western powers are left worse off than before starting this war, but further escalations is going to make us hurt even more.
If this is what Iran can do in a couple months, think of what Russia or China is capable of?
You're not even touching the tip of the iceberg if this is all you see.
Iran did all this at just the start of the war. But the US doesn't want us to see all the damages - it's why the Trump admin told satellite imaging companies to withold publishing visuals throughout the region.
And keep in mind, CENTCOM is hiding the true casualty count.
TrizzyG@reddit
I mean nobody should doubt their ability to constrict the Hormuz Strait as a significant consequence, but from a purely military standpoint, the US casualties are miniscule and Iran is BY FAR the strongest near-peer opponent the US has faced since at least Vietnam and more likely akin to China.
So again, their ability to cause a handful of aircraft to get damaged or shot down and destroy a dozen or so radar installations when their military is considered one of the foremost in rocketry and missile technology is honestly not remotely impressive or shocking.
US casualties aren't really being hidden either — its well understood that 15 are KIA and injuries are in the hundreds. Mind you, injuries for the US military are overwhelmingly TBI and minor physical injuries which historically never even got counted in most conflicts because the scale of real physical wounds and deaths made counting TBI cases and minor injuries an impossible task.
These casualties are a big focus on critics of the US operation and they absolutely should be criticizing the US, but in trade of that the casualties and damage Iran has suffered are astronomical. It's not even remotely close and it only shows just how far ahead the US military is compared to even major regional powers like Iran.
Zeydon@reddit
The AN/FPS-132 cost a BILLION dollars to build. Iran cratered it with a <$50k drone. From a military standpoint Iran is more than holding its own here. This war has shown we just won't automatically get our way with the bag of tricks we've been resorting to in recent decades, when against a competent, well-armed adversary, with a well thought-out chain of command. The Mossad-backed color revolution failed, the assassination strike didn't yield the regime change they wanted, and massacring civilians hasn't shattered the resolve of the Iranian people.
And remember that we haven't even really begun to feel the effects of the blockade yet. For every day it stays closed, it will take at least 3x that amount of time for shipping, supply chains, oil markets, etc. to recover.
TrizzyG@reddit
Not sure what you're trying to prove. Some losses were always going to occur. A few billion dollars in damages is not really that big of a deal when in turn Iran lost thousands of pieces of military equipment, production facilities, personnel losses include high-value personnel and leadership, and almost the entirety of their conventional air and naval forces.
Markets recover almost instantly to the changing situation so youre not even remotely accurate there. It's going to be a few months of oil hovering in and below $100/barrel and the associated bump in inflation (which is still far less than the post-COVID bump was) and that's pretty much it. Doesn't mean the situation wasnt stupid, but you're obviously biased and all doom and gloom and your emotional claims aren't interesting.
Zeydon@reddit
Then to recap, I called the unprovoked war of aggression against Iran a US failure, you countered that it shows the US can stomp on whoever it wants, and I replied that Iran has shown that there are cases where the consequences of doing so far outweigh the benefits.
I'm not sure where you're getting the idea I'm being all doom and gloom about this though. I'm hopeful that this will one day prove to have been a key step towards multi-polarity, as America has proved itself a disastrous global hegemon.
TrizzyG@reddit
The consequences aren't based on military damage to some handful of assets though. The economic damage from the closure of the straight is definitely real, but we gotta keep thay measured realistically too.
Growing multi-polarity is absolutely horrible for every single nation except for a few upstarts with an eye for imperialism. As a hegemon the US, even with the braindead leadership has infected them as of late, are still responsible for the most peaceful period in human history. Its not a surprise that as multi-polarity came rearing its head back that conflicts have blown up all over with far fewer prospects of resolution for any of them.
Zeydon@reddit
Upstart imperialists? The US is the empire. Look beyond North America and it is plain to see that the fascist US order has been anything but peaceful. This is a nation founded on a continent-wide genocide, that built itself up through slavery, that dominates the globe by staging far-right coups, flattening entire nations, and spreading terrorism. And the reason why the US is acting even more transparently belligerent than before is because it sees its grip on global dominance waning and is lashing out erratically in a desperate bid to intimidate the rest of the world back into submission.
Fewer and fewer people are buying into the myth of Team America: World Police. And why would they? We've all but dropped the pretense of the supposed "rules-based international order" entirely.
TrizzyG@reddit
Well if America is the empire and all what you said is true then I would shudder to think about the alternative which was concretely and statistically worse in every respect. The most peaceful time in human history was in the midst of American hegemony before other developing nations got enough combined strength to begin a shift in multipolarity. That has now resulted in more conflict.
Zeydon@reddit
Conflicts instigated by America! Are you actually arguing that the rest of the world must bend the knee to a fascist empire forever because said fascist empire won't give up control without a fight? Should the world have caved to Nazi Germany as well? The killings will continue, sure, but maybe there will be slightly less violence in some places in the short term if they accept subjugation now! Maybe we should do what the US empire is seemingly incapable of doing and think long term?
TrizzyG@reddit
If you think the world's conflicts are instigated by America then youre showing yourself to have no understanding of any current geopolitics. Not only that, but it's incredibly reductive and paternalistic to assume everyone else has had no agency and is simply fighting at the behest or some intangible control from the US.
It wasnt about subjugation, and yes, having a flawed hegemon was statistically much better for everyone. Cheering the end of that is kind of just cheering for more death and instability, which is what we have now.
Zeydon@reddit
No, I just have eyes. Kidnapping the Venezuelan president for... *checks news reports* dancing is instigation. Assassinating the leader of Iran while in the midst of negotiations with Iran is instigation, and then blowing up hundreds of schoolgirls is just the fascist cherry on top.
TrizzyG@reddit
Okay, those are literally examples that the US was directly involved in. So now explain how the other 250+ conflicts since 1991 were also all the doing of the US? Ill wait.
Eexoduis@reddit
Ukraine is doing quite well right now. We should step in to prevent further loss of life.
Ukraine hasn’t received a dollar from the US since 2024. They took back more territory in April of this year than they lost by their own ability - controlling the lower sky, supply and logistics interdiction in the midline, corps restructuring, etc.
The idea that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable is the core narrative in current Kremlin propaganda. That’s why they keep claiming city captures they don’t hold. They’re trying to build a story that isn’t true and you’re contributing to it.
Azzagtot@reddit
They never cared for Ukraine or Ukrainians.
Don't confuse support for Ukraine with desire to see Russia fail
Magjee@reddit
It's like the Afghan War of the 1980's
They didn't care about the Afghan's and abandoned them as soon as the war concluded
Eexoduis@reddit
Except you’re assuming that Russia trading shrinking parcels of worthless land for irreplaceable and vast amounts of human capital is “winning” because you have an ideological bias. If you are indeed from Chad you have spent your life being inundated with Russian propaganda that paints the country as an invincible military might. It isn’t. Russia is sacrificing itself for this war. Russia will probably never recover from this.
findingmike@reddit
Russia has no winning scenario anymore.
WongFarmHand@reddit
yes, they cant beat Ukraine militarily but they can reduce the nation to a depopulated rump state
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38938
every year this drags on the horizon of ukraines population narrows more and more, while Russia took in more refugees and stolen land(and the population residing there) than theyve lost in this conflict
i wouldnt call it a victory given the staggering losses, but that is clearly their goal
findingmike@reddit
Russia's problem is likely to be an economic collapse followed by a military collapse. If that happens they won't keep the land.
I agree that both countries will go through a population issue at this point. But Ukraine is likely to get immigration and commerce with the EU if they have stable borders.
asey_69@reddit
So when are they going to capture Kyiv in 3 days?
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Got your Crimea beach party tickets ready?
At least no Russian official ever said this 3 days to Kiev...
polymute@reddit (OP)
https://xcancel.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1649011513259175937
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
None of the people in the video are Russian officials...
polymute@reddit (OP)
Oh the Russian TV went against the official Russian position? Really? I think I have a bridge to sell you...
Potayto-potahto in a party-run dictatorship.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Whatever you need to tell your self...
polymute@reddit (OP)
What you are saying literally makes no sense.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
You lied about Russian officials saying anything about 3 days. You tried to use some random-ass twitter post as a source, the source didn't say what it said it says. Now you are rationalizing your lies in the comments...
loggy_sci@reddit
He didn’t say that, you accused him of saying thst. Per usual you’re here to lie and push russian narratives
polymute@reddit (OP)
I come from Hungary, friend. I am used to state media personalities and presenters being officials of the party=state=Orbán. It has only just ended. And it feels so fucking great!! A year ago Orbán was trying to force foreign agent registration and surveillance on independent media, actually made Ppride illegal (was a turning point it was the biggest ever ion Budapest and hetero people went out in great numbers too).
To see the rodents in the MTI (state media agency) scatter and worry! In the oligarch controlled TV channels! In the oligarch gifted to Fidesz hundreds of newspapers - no fucking joke , look up KESMA. We were never fully gone. But we were near gone. It was suffocating+*. But we were almost gone and I fly the EU flair proudly because our EU membership is the only reason we had just enough freedom left to take it back.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Whatever you have to tell your self to continue to spread propaganda... You might be used to thinking that to Earth is flat... it doesn't change the facts.
polymute@reddit (OP)
I just had a good actual laugh out loud moment. Thank you for that!
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Whatever i have to tell your self to continue to spread propaganda... You might be used to thinking that to Earth is flat... it doesn't change the facts.
findingmike@reddit
He didn't say that, you did.
asey_69@reddit
Nope, too poor for that.
Auto-scheduled article posted about "total victory" and "the Russian people being reunited" a few days after invasion: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-state-news-accidentally-publishes-181749627.html
Lukashenko boasts about any war with Ukraine being over "in 3 to 4 days": https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1498185064617762816
There are also sources about Putin actually saying that, but he apparently did so in 2014, and I'm not that nitpicky, but, still, take from that what you will.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
So you agree that no Russian official had ever claimed the 3 day thing... Glad you can admit when you are wrong.
asey_69@reddit
Well, yeah, but I also never said that anyway, read my comment again...
Azzagtot@reddit
As soon as Ukraine will complete it's couple hours Anti-Terrorist Operation
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/05/26/7026737/
:\^)
asey_69@reddit
That's a 12 year old statement from a person who is no longer president 💀
calmdownmyguy@reddit
This isn't trench warfare bud, it's 2026 no 2020 there's a 50 km wide kill zone patrolled by drone that cost a couple hundred dollars. People sitting 30k behind the line taking out invaders before they ever get close to engagement range.
WongFarmHand@reddit
with dominance like that ukraine is silly for seeking a ceasefire they should be taking back all of their land
PreviousCurrentThing@reddit
It's not dominance, drones have just become incredibly effective area denial weapons, like landmines on steroids. The defender advantage has gone way up.
Ukraine faces the same issue if it tries to recapture and hold territory. Neither side can mass armor without being spotted and taken out, and without that, its nearly impossible take trenches, let alone fortified positions. Ukrainians are having to infil from 10-15km out on foot, taking several days just to reach frontline static positions, too.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
It looks like you haven't been following the news. russia had to ask for Ukraine to give them a cease fire so they could host their sad little parade. putin is the one talking about bringing the war to a close because he can see the writing on the wall.
WongFarmHand@reddit
Well hopefully Ukraine declines Russias ceasefire pleas so they can retake their country
TearOpenTheVault@reddit
This is a very nice mental image, but it's pretty reductive. Drones don't win wars. Boots on the ground win wars. You can't FPV your way out of a manpower shortage indefinitely.
historicusXIII@reddit
These comments also seem to think that Ukraine is the only one with drones.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
Ukraine isn't actively trying to retake the territory. Neutralizing invaders without them gaining anything is a dynamic Ukraine can accept much longer than rusia can.
TearOpenTheVault@reddit
If Ukraine doesn't retake the territory, any ceasefire and peace agreement results in them losing that ground. Russia isn't going to surrender what their boots are on when they can keep applying pressure. Sure, Ukraine might not out and out lose at that point, but it's not a way to win either.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
There are different phases to a war. Right now Ukraine is trying to exhaust russia. If they do that they will either secure a favorable negotiating position or favorable conditions to retake the territory. Russia can have boots and the ground but if they can't advance and Ukraine can hit the supply lines behind them they aren't going to be effective.
historicusXIII@reddit
Except Ukraine is much more exhausted than Russia.
psmgx@reddit
but the rest of the EU isn't. and they're not burning their manufacturing manpower base up in drone attacks.
historicusXIII@reddit
Europeans aren't fighting the war though. Nor is the EU taking part of the damage. Ukraine's economy is down the drain, they spend an unsustainable 40% of their GDP on the military, their industry and energy infrastructure is much more hit than Russia's and even with construction they're running low on men.
Zeydon@reddit
New horrific videos of press gang abductions in Ukraine are showing up literally every day. There isn't a Russian parallel to this phenomenon as far as I'm aware. Remember which is the larger nation when thinking about who is exhausting who.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
They obviously are, sometimes they even succeed. You are simply uninformed.
soggybiscuit93@reddit
Dont confuse tactical counter attacks with strategic offensives.
Theres a big difference between reclaiming a small piece of land that's left under-defended following a failed offensive, and organizing a strategic level attempt to reclaim large portions of territory.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
I'll let you on a huge secret. Don't tell anyone. Strategic offensives consist of multiple tactical movements. Russia is just much more successful in those...
soggybiscuit93@reddit
Overly reductive to the point of making these terms useless.
A battalion commander opportunistically launching a tactical level counter offensive is fundamentally different than a strategic level offensive.
Tactical counter offensives are well within the scope of a strategic defensive posture. These two things are not mutually exclusive.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
They retook a few dozen km². Ukraine will try to take very specific positions if the conditions are right and the position offers a tactical advantage but there is no broad counter offensive. I actually do know what I'm talking wether it aligns with your opinions or not.
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
No, they retook, hundreds of KM² in Zaparozia a couple of months ago, clearly you are simply uninformed.
AlbertoRossonero@reddit
Mainly territory Russia had already taken. Ukraine is in a position where they can send reinforcements that get overrun by Russian troops and have some good counteroffensives but they’re constantly putting out fires and lose that territory back anyway. Kupyansk being a good example of Russia taking a large portion of the city, Ukraine seeing this as bad PR sends reinforcements and almost completely runs them out, now that those reinforcements have been moved elsewhere Russia has once again taken back those territories. In the most important areas in the Donbass Russia has its best drone operators so counteroffensives aren’t as effective as we saw with the attempts in Pokrovsk.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
I've been talking about the tactical approach in the Donbas
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
They were trying to counter attack in Donbas near Pokrovsk/Mirnograd as well as Slovansk/Siversk, less successful though.
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
WWI ended when the German home front starved and ran out of productive capability to support the army.
Is that happening here? On either side?
TearOpenTheVault@reddit
Ukraine certainly seems to be scraping the bottom of the barrel of its manpower pool, with polls showing an increasing lack of support for continuing the conflict. They're not starving (this isn't a total war,) but it's certainly not good.
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
And yet Russia cannot advance and Russia cannot attrit Ukrainian reserves to the point of surrender. The war will end more or less on current lines.
creamyjoshy@reddit
I'm not so sure. I do think drone warfare changes some things. I mean, when you have the capabilities to cheaply throw such a huge volume of disposable drones at the front line something has to give, no? Put it this way: What is the equilibrium force that causes frontlines to become static? It's when the cost of offensives becomes too high relative to the assessment of the bargaining power of both sides in anticipation of a resolution to the war. But when offensive actions and long range strike is still cheap with little risk of downsides, they will continue
I don't see any way this ends with a static front. It either ends with:
I don't see any of these things happening particularly imminently. I think the meat grinder will keep turning for a while
Magjee@reddit
When Russia failed to win in the opening of the war it made both sides lose
Just in different ways
FullConfection3260@reddit
Actually, they tunneled up into Kaiser Wilhelm’s hot tub. You can imagine he sued for peace soon after. 🙃
bippos@reddit
Germany was also starving so there is that
aykcak@reddit
The problem is nobody really plans to have trench warfare. It is a thing you end up doing because it is better than losing
LazyGandalf@reddit
What would be some good examples of this happening, i.e. fronts that have been more or less static for years suddenly collapsing?
Chipay@reddit
WW1 ended because the Germans had a Bolshevik rebellion brewing in Berlin, not because their front collapsed.
The lesson from WW1 is that there is no such thing as a breakthrough without mechanization and Russia has long abandoned IFVs and tanks in favour of infiltration tactics. So long as they do that they'll never amass the force needed to make use of a punctured frontline.
TearOpenTheVault@reddit
This is perilously close to 'stabbed in the back' mythmaking where the German empire didn't lose on the battlefield, but did so becuase of what was happening back home. It's also not true.
The battle of Amiens smashed a massive gap through the German lines and inflicted something like a 1-5 casualty ratio in the process. Amiens was in August, by September you had Australian corps literally walking from trench to trench and capturing any Germans who hadn't pulled back. By October they were back to the Siegfried/Hindenburg Line, and by November the war was over.
You can't launch the sort of big sweeping combined armed offensives that you could in 1918 because drones now exist, and as soon as you start marshalling troops for a push like that you're one big target for an FPV operator. That means you do deep infiltration with infantry elements. It doesn't mean that the lines will remain static forever.
mmbon@reddit
You should definitly look up the 100 days offensive. The front did collapse, especially because the Kaiserschlacht devastated any reserves the german army had. The German army lost 1.3 million men from March to November, thats irreplacable and the US were reenforcing like crazy, in early 1919 the Entente would have crossed the Rhine.
polymute@reddit (OP)
RTFA. It is about drone warfare in part. Not just trench warfare. Different beasts.
GerryAdamsSon@reddit
Assuming the AFU has the human resources to keep up with Russia's numbers. Currently according to Ukrainian sources, Russia is recruiting (not conscripting) 20,000+ soldiers a month whereas Ukraine isn't recruiting any and the conscription crisis is getting worse and more violent with civilians killing conscription officers every month
polymute@reddit (OP)
WSJ: He Was Missing Part of His Arm. Russia Sent Him Into Battle Anyway.
An ex-convict who is missing part of his right arm and has two titanium plates in his head, Vyacheslav Kudryashev might not seem like the best soldier to put in the vanguard of a military offensive. But for four days last year, he was at the tip of Russia’s spear, trying to pierce Ukraine’s defenses in the kind of infantry assault that is yielding meager gains and heavy losses for Russian troops. After more than four years of war, Russian President Vladimir Putin is far from achieving his goal of dominating Ukraine and facing mounting criticism at home. Russian forces are struggling to advance on the battlefield despite some 25,000 wounded and dead a month, say Western officials and military analysts. Russia’s halting progress suggests that taking the coveted eastern Donbas province could take years—and cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
GerryAdamsSon@reddit
didn't really address any points, just flailing and a load of whattaboutism copy/paste crap
polymute@reddit (OP)
I have refuted your Russian manpower is abundant point with diverse sources. That was what you called whataboutism and copy/paste "crap" and "flailin" - let us stay civil by the way, shall we? Even if your argumentation technique is ... what it is.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Russian manpower can be escalated to include conscription, which they haven't really touched.
Ukraine is running out of conscripts. There is no point in cheerleading at this point, Ukraine needs help, almost certainly of the boots on the ground variety, or at least a credible threat of it to make Russia back off or it will lose, it is just a matter of time.
TrizzyG@reddit
They've suffered substantially fewer losses as a percentage of their population compared to a lot of countries in either WWI or WWII and even they weren't "running out" of conscripts. Also, dont start up about the demographics either because the average age of those killed is also in line with their demographics.
Nobody is going to run out of conscripts in this war, but it will be a pretty interesting change when Russia starts to need to re-up their frontlines with conscripts. What happens then is speculation for now.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Their desertion rate is also higher than during the WW1 French army mutiny, and that isn't counting the number who have managed to hop the border before conscription or the fact that their last census was in 2001 and they are massively overcounting their population.
TrizzyG@reddit
Desertion and AWOL are two different things.
Also, population estimates are generally pretty accurate — nobody is using their census population data from 2001 I don't know why you would even care to make up such a pointless thing.
Border crossings are generally an easy thing to keep track of considering the neighbouring countries are all part of NATO and the EU.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
At the start of the war Ukraine had a population of over 40 million on paper.
They have revised to a current total of about 25 million.
And no, the border crossings aren't recorded. Its men sneaking out of the country, many of them end up shot or drowned in the attempt.
TrizzyG@reddit
No, they didn't. Idk where you pull these random numbers out from but the generally accepted values are around 30-34 million in Ukrainian-controlled areas.
Border crossings are indeed recorded. This fascinating concept has existed for quite some time.
The numbers of men sneaking out of the country via unregistered crossings is tiny and the number who die is so few that its a news story any time it happens.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Yes they do, the source is the Kyiv government, a the 30-34 million population includes the 5-7 million international refugees.
Of which a large portion are men that the government is asking the EU to return for conscription purposes.
TrizzyG@reddit
The vast majority of refugees are women. You have no clue what you're even talking about, and your own claim of 25 million is cited from one minister recently (and its not the first time individuals within the Ukrainian government have claimed vastly lower estimates compared to the established norm).
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Uh huh, so already when called on it you went from "That is made up nonsense" to
"Ok, so that is a number I knew about from the Ukrainian government, but its like one minister..."
How about we skip to the point where you stop being knowingly dishonest and go from there?
TrizzyG@reddit
It is literally one dude who has been quoted, and disputed by others within the government. So yes, I know where you got your claims from, which is why I know youre clueless. Its also not the first time this has happened, but you're just here to get some talking points in so you wouldnt remember.
So yeah lets skip the part where you pretend to be knowledgeable on this matter, especially with absurdist claims of mass casualties at the border, lack of conscriptable men, and massive numbers of male refugees.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Ukrainian refugee demographics:
Yes, almost no men. Over a million in the EU alone.
So again, now being called on this you'll come up with your next "uh uh..."
Just skip to the honesty part, because if you are knowledgeable on this subject you know you are being misleading at best.
I can give you similar breakdowns of conscriptable men or dead at the borders, but I suspect you already know them. So why not just skip to the honest part?
TrizzyG@reddit
Nice AI dude 😂 typical
If you did the math you'd understand that 1 million, while not nothing, is not a make it or break it bump. Its not because of casualties either — its because the number of adult men in the country is close to 12 million.
Nice job walking back your initial claims to basically saying nothing at all.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
You don't think missing 1 million fighting age men is a problem in a country of 25 million people?
I also didn't walk back the claim, refusing to be your strawman isn't walking back a claim it putting it firmly where it belongs.
Also, if you are claiming Zaluzhnyi is mentally unwell then its a real problem he was leading the defense for so long.
TrizzyG@reddit
No, you claimed Ukraine is running out of men to conscript, which is just profoundly idiotic. Hence the remainder of the thread.
So no, missing 1 million adult (18-64 age) men is not a make-or-break case for a country of 34 million people, especially considering the casualties in this conflict are nowhere near enough to justify your concern.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Ok, that is what I said though, they are running out of men to conscript. Which they are. You are claiming I was walking back my claims and I was being 100% clear they are simply running out of men to conscript, not that their entire army had already been destroyed.
They have about 10% of their population at max, that is of fighting age based on their horribly lopsided demographic pyramid. Assuming no health issues and that Ukraine was a nation of fitness nuts, that is (even by your numbers) 3.4 million people.
They currently have about a million on the front, and 4 million in their ready reserves (TDF, etc) which is already them pulling into aging recruits as old as 60.
A missing million men from that is huge, especially as they are still drastically short on men and need more to hold the front.
This isn't a game where Russia only wins if the kill counter hits 100%, as soon as Ukraine can't maintain the entire front and Russians can slip through its over.
Hence Ukraine trying to get the EU to return refugees to conscript them, hence the need for NATO boots on the ground.
But I think you know all this and are just trying to obfuscate the issue since now its getting to the point where after all our cheerleading for Ukraine to fight, it might soon be time for you and I to join them.
polymute@reddit (OP)
No it cannot: the exodus is already at 900 thousand young mostly male adults. Just from the threat of it (and what I'm outlining here later). Also conscripts by Russian law cannot serve in war zones. Some still end up there. And the braindrain 900 thousand refugees fled to Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey and anywhere they could go.
Now conscription in all-but-name is still done for the Ukrainian invasion's war zone. See examples here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/how-to-escape-russias-army-soldiers-serving-in-ukraine-seek-a-way-out
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/02/13/sign-on-the-dotted-line
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/05/14/unwilling-signatories-en
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-conscripts-war-combat/33415104.html
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2022/03/russia-220309-rferl02.htm
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/20/at-least-25-russian-conscripts-killed-since-ukraines-kursk-incursion-vyorstka-a88095
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-war-untrained-ill-equipped-conscripts-deployed-by-pro-russia-donbas-in-war-2861284
loggy_sci@reddit
You complaining about copy/paste? You do this constantly in this sub and did in your comment! Hypocritical, worthless propagandist.
AnHerstorian@reddit
You said the Russians are 'recruiting' and specifically alleged they weren't 'conscripting' 20,000 people a month, and the person replying to you showed that they are in fact using widespread deception to get people, largely migrants and ethnic minorities far outside the Russian metropole, to go in the place of ethnic white Russians.
Guaire1@reddit
It literally did address all your points though, why are you lying
Azzagtot@reddit
With Ukraine it's pretty clear, that every accusation is a confession.
polymute@reddit (OP)
These stories are from Russia. By Al Jazeera, the Turkish Anadolu Ajesi (quoting the Kenyan govt) and the WSJ.
It can literally not be projection about Ukraine when the sources are Russia, independent from each other and involve 4 distinct geopolitical perspectives.
You know a psych buzzword - projection. It very obviously does not apply when the sources directly describe Russia.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
So to summarize, Russia is running out of men willing to fight. But that's been the case for Ukraine since pretty much the end of 2023. In reality, Putin could probably get away with another partial mobilization and fight this type of war for many more years. Ukraine can't.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
Russia is taking higher and higher casualties for less and less gains every day. Ukraine is producing more of their own weapons and using them more effectively all the time. The longer the war goes on the more it favors the defender.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
Based on what source? It seems like they're going down according to Mediazona but it takes them time to verify the deaths so it's hard to know whether the trend goes up or down. And Ukrainian losses don't seem to be decreasing at all recently so I'm not really sure based on what you're making the assumption.
fifthflag@reddit
Based on Ukraine of course, who has no incentive to lie since they are, of course, the good guys.
loggy_sci@reddit
They are the good guys in this war as they are defending themselves from a brutal invasion by a nation that has committed atrocities on their soil, kidnapped thousands of children, and are stealing territory and conducting sham elections.
fifthflag@reddit
There are no good guys, especially not in geopolitics, Ukraine has lots of skeletons in their closet with or without this war.
Neznanc@reddit
Some guys are better than others
fifthflag@reddit
No not really
polymute@reddit (OP)
Also even Putin doesn't dare touch the protected class: ethnic Russian, mainly city dweller, has a Chinese phone, has a Chinese car, haven't been put in the meatgrinder on the front. Why do you think the recruitments - legal and "sign the appendix at 11 pm without reading" legal - absolutely massively disproportionately target the periphery regions and the ethnic minorities?
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
There is no forced conscription in Russia. People who have less money are obviously more likely to sign a contract. They're also less likely to understand the real situation on the front lines. I think it's as simple as that.
polymute@reddit (OP)
Apart from the mandatory one for every male turning 18 IIRC about the age. Who do end up on the front from time to time and time... and time... and time... almost like it was official policy (and by the by the Russian gov't repeatedly claimed that conscripts won't end up in combat roles, but still they did, BTW).
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-700779
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/20/at-least-25-russian-conscripts-killed-since-ukraines-kursk-incursion-vyorstka-a88095
https://www.ibtimes.com/russian-conscripts-admit-being-sent-ukraine-without-training-low-supplies-3461567
But I wasn't talking about that. You brought that up. Thanks for bringing it to my attention, I guess.
I specifically said recruitment - legal and "sign the appendix at 11 pm without reading" legal.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
Yep, if they sign a contract. Not a forced conscription though.
polymute@reddit (OP)
Not if they sign a contract. (Also even when it is "funny recruitment" not normal recruitment because funny is quite systematic, the signing is coerced/misleading, look at the links.)
An yes there is mandatory conscription in Russia. For all 18 year olds. That is forced conscription. You might have time for debating semantics, but I don't.
And 2022 does not count? Or the fact that the Russian state apparatus kept repeating that conscripts would not be sent to conflict zones... Kursk was a conflict zone. Regardless of borders.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
Yes, it is mandatory. But it doesn't bind them to serving in Ukraine. Pretty sure it's actually a big deal in Russia. There would be a major upset if these guys were sent to Ukraine.
2022 doesn't count because it's not the same as the current situation. When it comes to Kursk, Russia doesn't view their territory as a part of the "special military operation". It comes down to understanding Russian view. Putin doesn't want to send these guys to the front lines because the Russian public would hate it.
polymute@reddit (OP)
Do you not read links?
I have posted this at least 2 times in this thread. Let's copy some of it then.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/02/13/sign-on-the-dotted-line Sign on the dotted line New investigation by Verstka Media finds systematic coercion of Russian draftees to enlist as contract soldiers, possibly in preparation for the end of combat in Ukraine
Russian army officers are systematically coercing draftees who have been fighting since 2022 to sign professional contracts with the Defense Ministry, according to a new investigation from Verstka Media citing dozens of soldiers in different units now deployed in Ukraine, soldiers’ wives, and numerous discussions in Telegram chat groups.
Men who refuse to enlist with the military as contract soldiers are threatened with reassignment to assault units, where they’re likely to die in combat. Draftees often have just a few hours to decide.
And I do peruse pro-Russian sources from time to time. Modern translation services enable my masochism. Russian propaganda is ... sad and mad.
I read along the spectrum without sufering from enlightened centrism regarding a war where the aggressor claims the defenders nationality do not exist.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
None of this refutes my claims. Yeah, Russia is trying to get these guys to fight. But not forcing them. Again, you can look at Mediazona and their confirmed casualties, most aren't young men.
Am I defending Russia's actions in any way? I'm just trying to be realistic about the situation on the ground. I've seen way to many of "pro-ukrainians" who just choose to listen to Ukrainian/Western sources and think that the war is going great. In reality, it isn't. Tens if not hundreds of men are getting killed on each side every day for no reason. The war is done. Neither side is able to advance and neither side will achieve the victory they desire.
polymute@reddit (OP)
Regarding the end: I do agree. Unfortunately Putin does not. He wants it to end in a way that would make Ukraine unable to defend itself come the next Russian invasion and take land and people by treaty that they cannot by force. These won't happen. As soon as P realizes that much there can and will be peace IMO.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
He won't tho. But I think that there can be a deal where Putin will be forced to agree with preassure from China and other countries. We just need a real peace talks. If the US refuses to negotiate in this way, this war will drag on for many more years risking a complete Ukrainian collapse with a small hope that Ukraine can somehow win it on the battlefield.
polymute@reddit (OP)
I don't see a complete Ukrainian collapse: drone warfare is one of the reasons. And yeah we do need talks. Trump's people don't have the acumen IMO. The problem with your China negotiator idea is ... they are not interested in solving this. Russia buying Chinese and not even considering being belligerent against the PRC while in this war is good for them. And they don't really tend to intricate themselves into European politics. They are largely neutral to the EU. Not that they mind if it doesn't get stronger and its capacities are tied up against a thrashing, aggressive drunk Russia... They are hostile to the US mostly and the states that are against their regional hegemony in SE Asia. And Russia is actually a natural enemy for them, so... this war going on... is not a bad thing from the PRC's POV.
Federal_Thanks7596@reddit
You gotta remember that Russia matches their drone warfare. Starlink is Ukraine's great advantage but the question is, for how long will it last till Russia is able to match it and how significant is it really.
China is starting to get their way in global politics. But they won't be just a pawn in Western dicated peace deal, they'd like to be there as an equal power. Which is unlikely to happen as long as the US clings onto their global hegemony.
polymute@reddit (OP)
Well the EU is building its own Starlink - IRIS2 and they do have Eutelsat too (tbf by 2030 Russia is bringing its Rassvet/Bureau 1440 into play too, but that is not tomorrow) and has two MICs getting into gear (one would argue Ukraine is become a third one). And a Dem US presidency might be coming which would swing them back again out of MAGA land.
But the thing is, Russia was going by a snails pace before Starlink shut them out, the weren't making leaps and strides. And now its a ... vegetable's speed. Not one of the vines or weeds either. Russia is sunsetting as a power. It can do enormous damage out - especially in the open digital spaces and open liberal democracies of the EU. But as a conventional military power in nuclear world? Only if it is willing to be a suicide bomber equivalent and I don't mean nukes. And let us be fair. They might. A cornered wolf with a mangy hide still can have teeth. Though those teeth have been shown to be less sharp then we thought in both Ukraine and the Sahel. And are very selectively used.
Hybrid warfare is where Latvia and Poland has to look out - election warfare where Germany, France and Romania. Though I must stress that should Meloni did not turn out to be anti-EU once she got into the club and RN's voters are not Frexit oriented but protest oriented by and large. AfD's next interesting national election is not soon and alone they will not govern this decade most likely, if they will. At worst the CDU/CSU breaks the firewall. And CDU is staunchly pro-EU and European leadership oriented.
China is a lot of things but it is not prone to over-extension under Xi. They dropped Orbán like a piece of rotten orange. Didn't even give him money to offset the Article 7 cohesion grant loss which largely led to his loss. And Orbán was China's veto and number one man i the EU. I know, I'm Hungarian. China is - not interested - in being involved with Ukraine. They only carefully - too carefully for their own good IMO - back Iran because a lot of their oil comes (or doesn't come) thru the Hormuz. And/or from Iran proper actually. BTW another point towards Russia's brittle status: Iran did more for them (started them off with drone tech, the Shahed-to-Geran pipeline, their own was nonexistent) with respect to Ukraine then Russia does for Iran with regard to the US/Israel/Iran war. They don't even negotiate! Syria fell! The Sahel countries are imploding. VZLA was taken over by Trump's naked aggression. Cuba is under blockade. They have almost no power projection. And China is very Asia-Pacific-local. Add Africa. And some halfhearted Balkan projects. But that is it. China wants Southeast-East Asia and their resource networks secure. Watch to the think harder and harder and act about the Malacca strait. When those things are secure. They might i the future do other things. But as for now. They are not interested in getting involved in Ukraine and also: Russia is too insecure (and for good reason, two ways) to want them.
Guaire1@reddit
I know plenty of people in russia who would disagree with you. Its just not legally called conscription, but in practice it happens
calmdownmyguy@reddit
3 day operation lmao
Azzagtot@reddit
Iran war lmao
calmdownmyguy@reddit
Im not in favor of the war but we dropped Khomeini in like 20 minutes. Russia hasn't touched Zelensky despite half a decade of their best efforts.
fifthflag@reddit
And what did killing Khomeini bring to the US exactly? Is Iran closer or further from collapse?
calmdownmyguy@reddit
Probably to early to say one way or the other.
I think the war in Iran is monumentally stupid. I only mentioned Khomeini in response to the idiot who brought up the Iran war because they couldn't make a coherent argument in favor of Rlrussia.
fifthflag@reddit
Why would Russia want to kill Zelenskyy? It would not bring anything, if their plan is to eventually make a rump state easily controlled by Russia then a public enemy no 1 in Zelensky would do better then Martyr Zelenskyy. Killing Zelensky would be like killing Khomeini, which gave Iranians something to rally around.
Plus US is doing a decimating war in Iran, with civilians being the target (due to Israel calling the shots, and this is Israel's war) and Russia while also doing a lot of criminal acts seem to not favor killing civilians and destroying infrastructure if they hope to gain it in future advances (obviously, since they need it too), the US doesn't care if schools, roads, railroads stay in place, they don't want anything to do with the territory.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
You would have to ask putin why he ordered over a dozen confirmed assassination attempts.
It is hilarious that you think russia is avoiding damaging Ukrainian infrastructure when their entire winter campaign was focused on destroying energy infrastructure to try to freeze Ukraine out and force a surrender.
fifthflag@reddit
Read again, they are avoiding IF they think they get to keep it.
Also confirmed by who? Zelenskyy?
polymute@reddit (OP)
https://www.pap.pl/en/news/assassination-attempt-zelensky-foiled-poland
https://archive.md/20251230144628/https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-days-xnstdfdfc (This has one Ukrainan sourced too.)
Then there is
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4691346-assassination-nation-russia-has-zelenskyy-in-its-crosshairs/
Add that to this https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/europe/russia-missile-odesa-greece-russia-zelensky-intl
CIA director secretly met with Zelenskyy before invasion to reveal Russian plot to kill him as he pushed back on US intelligence, book says
https://babel.ua/en/texts/115651-the-day-before-the-war-russia-is-concentrating-troops-the-west-is-looking-for-a-compromise-zelensky-is-under-an-assassination-attempt-read-a-reconstruction-of-the-events-of-jan-feb-2022-based-on-3-tho
And the SBU's list along with some others: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_attempts_on_Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
Guaire1@reddit
Correct, trump and netanahyu are as dumb and inept as putin, which makes sense since all three are close friends and associates
Magjee@reddit
Bibi didn't attack to win, he attacked to garner domestic support behind him and to avoid going to trial
The actual war outcome is secondary to his personal benefit
Guaire1@reddit
Correct, every russian accusation is a confesion.
Azzagtot@reddit
As I said: projections and coping
Chipay@reddit
Ukrainian numbers indicate Russia is recruiting closer to 30K soldiers a month:
That gets you about 29K/month. The flip side to this is that just Ukraine's drone strikes kill more:
So the Russian army right now is actively shrinking despite the recruitment, every month there are fewer Russian soldiers in Ukraine irrespective of how much land they do or don't take. The reason for this is of course the ridiculously low price of drones:
To give you a purely theoretical example of how stupidly cheap that is, the EUR 90 billion loan the EU just passed would give Ukraine enough money over the coming years to successfully drone strike 119 million Russian soldiers, or 80% of Russia entire population.
All of that doesn't really matter though. Russia will go bankrupt before it runs out of people and Ukraine will run out of people before it runs out of land or money (provided the EU keeps funding them), and we'll see peace negotiations before either of those happen in the first place.
zer1223@reddit
Ukraine will just raise its conscription age cutoff by three years and then keep going for quite a while longer
GiveMeSumChonChon@reddit
That would only exacerbate the population drain problem.
zer1223@reddit
So would Russia taking kiev
GiveMeSumChonChon@reddit
They can’t even take Donbas.
Vassago81@reddit
Of course no army ever lie about and exaggerate the enemy casualties.
Chipay@reddit
You're free to suggest a neutral source
MarderFucher@reddit
Good thing more contract soldiers are eliminated each month than recruited then!
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Random number generator is Ukrainian MOD's most fearsome weapon
MarderFucher@reddit
so are random-name bot accounts with high karma and hidden comment history, huh?
MintCathexis@reddit
I know people from Russia who have been conscripted. They just don't call it conscription because it's still technically illegal for Russia to conscript people for a "special military operation", and people who care about the optics still have some influence in/usefulness for Russia.
sofixa11@reddit
And losing 30,000+ a month. Which means their army is shrinking.
Azzagtot@reddit
May we see source for this claim, so wer can all laugh at Ukrainian MOD numbers?
polymute@reddit (OP)
The NYT has evaluated the same two days back: https://archive.md/20260511142946/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/world/europe/russia-ukraine-putin-war.html
From the article:
Emphasis mine.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
Not sure why “marching forward” is considered the metric for victory. Germany lost WWII while still being in French territory. If the army collapses then the territory you hold doesn’t really matter.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
Indeed, and there's also plenty of signs pointing to the possibility that Russia may suffer a 1917 style scenario of a financial catastrophy. The Russian budget for 2026 was planned around a 3 trillion ruble deficit. By April's end the deficit was already 5 trillion rubles by official Russian statistics, while accounting for unofficial expenses owing to Russian bookkeeping tricks to hide spending suggests it could be closer to 8-9 trillion.
Russia's vital oil and gas sector is burning with many major facilities being hit at a regular pace, destroying Russia's ability to profit from high oil prices aimply because they can't store or move the oil and gas to ships at full capacity.
The Russian steel sector, backbone of a war economy, is in the midst of war reporting bankruptcies and a 90% drop in profits to near zero margins.
The agricultural sector of Russia is similarly suffering an outright collapse at least for small farmers. This was brought up by a Russian pro war personality with an understanding in economics, whether it was Alexander Kalashnikov of Igor Lipsits, so this is coming from someone who wants Russia to defeat Ukraine and the West, a loyalist of Russia. You have Russian grocery stores importing Indian or Egyptian agricultural goods and refusing to buy Russian alternatives simply due to the sheer costs of getting domestic goods, plus other factors. You also have the Novosibirsk episode of the local government in collusion with big agricultural corporations killing off the cows of independent farmers, because that's a competitor to the big corporations with industrial farms, using a real cattle epidemic as an excuse to cull all the cows no matter if they're showing symptoms.
The Russian defence sector, the literal backbone of the economy which is rotting from within, is alsoa. Sheer mess. Much of it can be described as a mafia corruption racket of various officials and companies, with a bureaucracy worse than Germany or France. We are talking about the Russian military industrial complex cooperating with the state bureaucracy proceeding to tax, fine or regulate any ondependent Russian entrepaneurs say assembling drones at home for the Russian army into bankruptcy, because said drones are not ebing produced by the big companies. In one case a Russian drone producer runnikg a small time operation assembling drones was hit with the issue, that his attempt to get the paperork in order took like a year, while his operation was being taxed too, such that by the time any permit to operate came through properly, the entrepaneur's operation had gone bankrupt. Similarly the Russians are not adopting any local Russian troops inventions, such as in one example a crude weapon that was aböe to do something to drones. The Russians do not see innovations and scale up their production, but instead the invention is left stuck in permitting bureaucracy, while the army gives their soldiers jammers that are outdated that don't work because that is approved due to the supplier being a big guy.
The Russian logistics chain doesn't exist in any proper form and the Russian army isn't exactly supplying its troops. Instead the Russian contract soldiers, whose contracts are automatically renewed, have to use the money they got with the contract to buy their own gear. That is alongside with officers of the Russian army aimply stealing the new conscripts pay, if the soldier doesn't want to be immediately sent to charge Ukrainian positions and be killed.
The Russians have a facade of a rotting atructure, which would come tumbling down if the West marched against Russia as it claims with its full strength. However instead it is able to send thousand men each dya to die as Ukraine lacks the manpower for any major offensives
Swaggadociouss@reddit
How’s the Ukrainian economy doing?
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
It's not based on faulty data with billions of dollars worth of accounting issues and hopes and dreams of oil prices being high.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
The second part is true, but remember that while Russia is the most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine is #2, worse than Belarus and Turkey.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
However Ukraine has seen its oligarchs gutted in influence by the war. In addition, Ukraine is working on the corruption as exemplified by the recent convictions of the Energoatom officials, and also the conviction of Andrey Yermak, the notorious politician who was the shoulder of Zelensky for a good long time. Also Ukraine saw Zelensky's attempt to gut the anti-corfuption agencies foiled by mass protests in the midst of war, forcing reshuffles in the Ukrainian government and which led to the downfall of Yermak.
No, Ukraine is not perfect, but it's actually doing something about it unlike Russia or Belarus
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Maybe, it is making the right noises but its also cancelled elections (which in wartime it can do) but as part of that Zelensky is supposed to pass over the reigns to the head of government, which he hasn't done.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
The elections can continue once the Russians aren't going to hit polling stations with drones and missiles. Also during ww2 Britain suspended its elections in war time, Finland suspended its elections during wartime, and both saw their democraies endure post war.
Also downvoting me doesn't help your case
SamuelClemmens@reddit
Again, suspending elections is fair its part of the Ukrainian constitution.
The problem is that when you do that, the president hands over power to the head of government to prevent this from being a "justify a forever war to cancel elections situation".
There is nothing wrong with the elections being cancelled, its that that doesn't impact Zelensky's term ending. His powers go to the head of government, which he hasn't done.
Also, I am not the one downvoting you.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
Is that handover of power part of the Ukrainian constitution?
SamuelClemmens@reddit
yes.
polymute@reddit (OP)
OK, I copypasted this exchange into ChatGPT from here "Again, suspending...." And asked if SamuelClemmens is right.
It output: No — at least not in the straightforward way he states it.
There is broad agreement that Ukraine cannot hold presidential elections under martial law. But the claim that “when the president’s term ends, power automatically transfers to the head of government” is not established Ukrainian constitutional law.
The relevant constitutional issue is actually disputed, but the stronger mainstream legal interpretation in Ukraine is that Zelensky remains president until a successor takes office.
Key points:
So Samuel is wrong on at least two major points:
SamuelClemmens@reddit
1.) The parliamentary speaker vs prime minister is a Ukrainian oddity, in the Ukrainian parliamentary system the Prime Minister is appointed by the president vs being appointed by the parliament like in other countries. Calling the Prime Minster the head of government is .. I guess technically correct?
2.) The dominant scholars bit is.. well that deals with the ongoing corruption scandals in the first place. The scholars who thought differently were removed.
polymute@reddit (OP)
1.) So you were wrong, but it's no big deal - not substantial to the argument, whether it's the PM or the speaker - I am not being sarcastic here it is indeed not IMO
2.) The dominant scholars bit is.. well that deals with the ongoing corruption scandals in the first place. The scholars who thought differently were removed.
Source the corruption context bit please.
I will say that having a constitutional crises is not ... expedient during wartime so it is good that they avoided that.
SamuelClemmens@reddit
That doesn't mean it isn't possibly corrupt though. What happens in a Korea style standoff? Is Zelensky in charge for life?
polymute@reddit (OP)
Korea ended with a ceasefire that became a de facto peace. In that case: the EU finances Ukraine. The EU has just demonstrated that it can get rid of democratic backsliders through financing withdrawal mechanism for that: Hungary's Orbán. It took about 10 years and it was a first (well there was a zeroth half-example in cohesion funds withheld more more partially from the previous PiS govt of Poland, but that was much less significant a factor than in Hugary). Anyhow I wrote the Hungarian case here: https://www.reddit.com/r/anime_titties/comments/1t8iv01/p%C3%A9ter_magyar_sworn_in_as_hungarys_prime_minister/ol1f4d0/
So. The EU has a specific mechanism against anti-democratic systems who they give significant amounts of money to and precedent in using it to keep the democratic backsliding in check.
Anyhow sources for the corruption context?
SamuelClemmens@reddit
1.) Korea was a military dictatorship for most of its existence. You are acting like it wouldn't be able to juggle American and UK funding as well.
Orban also wasn't forced out by the EU, but by the simple fact we was elected and he started to do shit at his job so he was elected out. Right wing =/= anti-democratic, the new leadership of Hungary is not any more democratic than Orban, he's just more pro-EU.
2.) How detailed do you want? Corruption in Ukraine has its own wikipedia page, of you could go to the government trying to shut down independent anti-corruption agencies last year once they started getting close to Zelensky's inner circle.
Its like asking "Do you have any proof of corruption in Russia?", its so vast that its a nonsense question. The answer is "yes, and you can look it up in 5 seconds, trying to ask for a condensed summary is at best naivety and more likely a debate trick to shift attention"
polymute@reddit (OP)
Yeah I know about Korea. And in case its news to you: America is allocating basically zero aid compared to the EU to Ukraine for the future https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/processed/1/5/csm_mi2026-02-11_Trends-in-Ukraine-aid_EN_95cebb3442.svg https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-after-4-years-of-war-europe-steps-up/
This is Trump. So yeah, teh American's who enabled the SK dictatorship of Syngman Rhee and the likes are getting out of the picture and it's the EU who managed to get rid of the backsliding Orbán (well they helped us - én is szavaztam). And yes. Specifically partially corruption - the rule of law ... khm systemic failures - was how the EU suspended 6.3 billion EUR in cohesion funds to Hungary after a multi year-long process in 2022.
Again, I have linked this in my previous comment how this led to the collapse of the illiberal vorrupt patronage network that was sustaining Orbán's mixed regime at least partially. I wrote it up pretty neatly if I do say so myself.
As for corruption in Ukraine: we are talking about a heavyweight politician's fall over corruption which is a good thing. I will be honest and pragmatic: during war there is less ability and will from the EU to go after corruptin in Ukraine and even than this happens. Good. Do believe me: Germany and the Netherlands and Finland and the OLAF will go after corrupt politicians and rule of law backsliding after the war ends. There will be much more pressure on Ukraine about this then.
You really don't read links. It had exactly nothing to do with him being right wing (he and Fidesz-KDNP is a Putin-policy implementer neofascist hard right political party, not merely right wing anyhow). A big problem was their attacks on judicial independence. And most of the corruption was facilitated by a totally Fides-controlled State Prosecution Office which simply did not start cases.
And Tisza is conservative-to-center-right. As in not banning pride but not legalizing marriage equality either... but very anti-corruption and very rule of law-democracy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party
So rule of law. Democracy. Independent judiciary. Not political orientation. Are the requirements for Hungary to get back those billions in cohesion founds. And there are already Which will get back a good portion of the cohesion founds.
historicusXIII@reddit
Instead it's based on the goodwill of other countries funding them.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
And that will is based on the fact nobody wants Russia further west exactly
Swaggadociouss@reddit
Don’t know why I got downvoted for asking a genuine question. It’s a war of attrition, economy is part of it. You’ve done a very opinionated and one-sided analysis of the Russian economy, but in a war it only matters in comparison to the other country.
Vassago81@reddit
404 economy not found
historicusXIII@reddit
It's held up almost enterely by the EU.
kapsama@reddit
Europeans predicting Russia's imminent economic collapse is like Netanyahu's predicting Iran is 2 weeks from acquiring a nuke since the 90s at this point.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
It's not an imminent collapse, until it is. At the current rate the Rusdians themselves, the pro war people that is, speak of troubles by November, because you'd need oil price in a thousand dollars per barrel for Russia's budget deficit to be fixed, and even that wouldn't fix the fact Russia's domestic economy is literally dying a slow death, whether it's the steel sector collapsing, the agricultural sector collapsing, or the fact local Russian governments are running out of money while in Engelsk sewage is flooding the streets because there pipes burst open (I am not kidding, they have literal sewage in the streets of a major Russian city).
FullConfection3260@reddit
Wait until you see the U.S. deficit, and the already collapsed steel/automobile sector 🙄
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
The US deficit is serviceable with much lower interest rates. We're talking about interest payments in relation to the size of the country's economy.
Russia is paying US levels of interest payments, with the economy of Italy.
FullConfection3260@reddit
“Serviceable”
Son, the U.S deficit keeps increasing every year.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
This is a made up number. “Oil would have to be $1000 to pay off the Russian deficit.” The US would have to sell 375 billion barrels of oil. Actually at an average of 20% profit that would make it about 1.5 trillion oil barrels needed to pay off the deficit.
You see how absurd this is?
kapsama@reddit
That's akin to doomsday sayers predicting the apocalypse every few years. It's hysteria until it actually happens!
And this isn't meant as an attack on you. Maybe all those points you listed are correct. But I've seen a similar song and dance too many times to take it seriously at this point.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
Russia simply cannot finance this war long term, it is running put of money to spend, and it's interest costs are equal to the US atm due to ridiculously high interest rates.
The reason why there's confidence that Russia will suffer something awful by November is very simple. The only way Russiq can save its economy is to end the war. Issue is Putin cannot personally afford to end the war because he might get overthrown by pro war people who want to keep the war going, or just see that Putin is weak. The economic and political situation combine to a lose-lose outcome for Russia.
Putin cannot afford to end the war because he is now kept in power due to the war, plus he's too proud to end the war, which was supposed to bring him glory. He's sunk too much into the war and ending it would mean for this narcissist to acknowledge that he made a mistake. However Russia's economy simply cannot sustain war without say cutting funding to the poorest regions, which without paid security officers and police may as well rebel or plunge into local civil wars without the central government funding them.
Either Putin loses by ending the war or the war ends Putin by bankrupting Russia, and you can rely on a narcissist willing to start a war to rather keep the war going even if it bankruptcs Russia.
polymute@reddit (OP)
“How did you go bankrupt?" Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
historicusXIII@reddit
I have seen that quote being spread in the contaxt of Russian economic collapse since at least late 2024.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
How did the USSR look in 1987?
How did Russia look in 1916?
How did Germany look in 1941 at the start of operation barbarossa?
How did Germany look in 1917 after Russiqn surrender?
Did these countries at these times look like they were destined to collspse
00x0xx@reddit
USSR did look like it was about to collapse in 1987. In 1916, widespread poverty and unrest was widespread in Russia. So yes, Russia & the USSR did look like it was destined to collapse soon at these years.
Today Russia looks strong, but the EU looks weak.
Magjee@reddit
They all look pretty weak at the moment
It's been crisis after crisis since 2020
Czart@reddit
Oh my god incredible. "russia looks strong". yeah, if you're sub-zero IQ troll, maybe.
polymute@reddit (OP)
That's perfectly consistent with it, though.
bmrtt@reddit
They still believe the "three day operation" meme despite that never being Putin's plan or even motivation.
It's not very surprising that they still love regurgitating the "Russia is weeks away from total collapse, this time for real guys, a website ending in .ua says so" narrative.
polymute@reddit (OP)
Ahem. Russian propaganda was full of it. And they don't go against the Tsar. A compilation of proof.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1649011513259175937
Guaire1@reddit
Russia's economy has only been kept on functioning by constant spending of liquid reserves, reserves which are far from unlimited. European analysts always said that, very few thought it would collapse inmediately
kapsama@reddit
Imminent collapse of Russia has been mainstream media news since 2023.
Guaire1@reddit
Medi, not analysts, media is,by its nature, sensationalist. Russia media has also been predixting an inminate ukranian collapse since 2014.
kapsama@reddit
Media shapes mainstream opinion. And many analysts are quoted by media.
Russian media doing the same is a really sad statement on the state of European media wouldn't you say?
Guaire1@reddit
Its a sad state on everyones media, since media has been sensationalist as long as media has existed
calmdownmyguy@reddit
Ukraine is also eliminating russian troops faster than russia can recruit them.
historicusXIII@reddit
This has been the case for Ukraine far longer though, and Russia can still mobilise reserves.
Makyr_Drone@reddit
You mean WW1?
ztuztuzrtuzr@reddit
They also held the channel islands and some tiny pockets on the coast of france
historicusXIII@reddit
Also Norway, Denmark and parts of the Netherlands.
Makyr_Drone@reddit
I stand corrected.
Magjee@reddit
The Channel Islands were so fortified no one bothered attacking them
...and it ended up not making a difference
Swaggadociouss@reddit
Yes my bad thanks.
zer1223@reddit
If you organize offensives and they fail it's not a good indicator for your chances of victory
Lost the navy to a nation without one
No air superiority
Lost almost all the tanks
Same for air defense weaponry
Keep losing trucks in their supply lines
Revenue hasn't increased despite oil price, because of how much oil has been taken offline by Ukraine
Kill zone extending further into Russian territory
Losing soldiers faster than it can recruit
By what metric is Russia 'winning'?
Swaggadociouss@reddit
Ukraine famously organised an offensive that failed, so what does that say about their chances of victory?
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
The Ukrainian Army is not subject to the same pressures as the WWI German Army. No starvation on the home front, for one thing.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
You have an army full of conscripts that have been pulled off the streets. The average age of a solider is in their early 40s. Soldiers are not getting rotated and are spending months and months on the front lines, hundreds of thousands have deserted. Their primary benefactor (the US) has gotten disinterested and distracted. Zelensky’s men are running off to Israel with $100 billion stolen. Morale is low.
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
These are not really relevant facts. For one thing, the 2023 counteroffensive happened two years ago and for another, the US hasn't been Ukraine's primary benefactor in almost two years.
The Ukrainian drone groups have stabilized the front in a decisive way. Russia is no longer able to inflict significant attrition and Russia cannot advance.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
They are relevant. The counteroffensive lost a lot of men and damaged morale. The fact that the US had not been their primary benefactor for two years also had damaged morale.
And the Russian movement has slowed down. But where do they go from here? They don’t seem to be able to re-take and hold land, they’re certainly not going to be able to push into Russia. So what’s their plan, to wait out a country with more soldiers, more money, more weapons and more artillery?
50, 000 desertion cases have been brought up by the Ukrainian government, over 200,000 AWOL cases. From a Ukrainian source: “In 2025, the average number of new cases per month rose to roughly 16,000–19,000, compared to about 5,000 per month in 2024 and only 1,500 per month in 2023.” (Unn.ua)
Doesn’t seem too promising to me.
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
Yes. Because they can. Even Putin is starting to talk about peace negotiations now. It is apparent that Russian war goals cannot be realized.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
There were peace negotiations in 2022, remember?
They were about to sign a peace deal in Istanbul in which they would agree to remain neutral in exchange for international security guarantees. Then Boris Johnson came in and scuttled it, offering Western support to continue the war.
It reminds me of when Nixon came in to scuttle the Vietnam negotiations, just for the war to go on for another 5 years.
If Putin negotiating is a sign of weakness, why was he at the negotiating table in March of 2022 when they were at their strongest?
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
You are leaving our certain important details here, especially regarding Russia's desired postwar vision for the size and armament of the Ukrainian military. Why?
Putin's terms in 2022 were equivalent to a Ukrainian surrender.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
Your point was that Putin willing to negotiate indicates he is weak and that the war is changing. My point he was willing to negotiate 4 years ago, so he is not “starting to talk about peace negotiations” now because it’s suddenly apparent their goals can’t be realized.
Why is being willing to negotiate seen as a bad thing? You don’t have to make it illegal to negotiate (which Ukraine did).
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
Of course the terms are wholly different now- the terms back then were the essential elimination of the Ukrainian military, a free hand in the donbas, etc in exchange for peace.
Today they are freezing the war on the current lines.
Why do you think that is?
Swaggadociouss@reddit
Do you even know what your own argument is? You are arguing that Putin negotiating is a sign of weakness. He has always been willing to negotiate. Then your argument shits that actually the fact that the terms have changed indicate weakness.
The original deal had the Russians offering to withdraw and return much of the territory taken. 4 years later you’re taking about freezing it at current lines (not returning it).
Hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians later and the terms are actually worse than they were before, yet you’re trying to spin this into a victory.
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
Yes.
Putin has gone from demanding that Ukraine become a de facto vassal state to agreeing to freeze the conflict on existing lines. This is a consequence of the Russian military's inability to force the issue.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
But you said that he was never demanding/negotiating at all and that he has “just started”.
Did you read what I wrote? Putin has gone from ceding land back to Ukraine versus freezing it on current lines - which is worse for Ukraine! They’re not even trying to negotiate to get the land back that would have been offered to them in 2022. So Ukraine is allowed to have a larger army - at the cost of losing thousands of square km of territory and millions of people.
It’s obvious that you want Ukraine to win, so everything you read proves my point.
Imagine I come in, steal your house, steal your wife. I offer to return the house and wife back if you can make a security agreement. You say no. We fight for four years. I’m still in your house, in fact I’m quite settled. I’ve still got your wife, she’s gotten used to me.
But I’ll let you install a security system if it’ll get you off my back. I was going to give you back all the rooms but now I’m just going to keep eyelashes I’ve taken. Still not going to let the cops in that house.
So I’ve still all things I wanted 4 years ago, and you get something you can’t even afford in the first place. Tell me how weak I am as I sit in your house with your wife while you look through the window.
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
If Ukraine cannot have a large army it cannot defend itself from Russia at all, so any territorial gain for Ukraine becomes temporary.
There was nothing in the old Russian agenda that would stop Russia from waiting until the Ukrainian military had been dismantled and then re-invading without the prospect of facing organized resistance.
Swaggadociouss@reddit
So you’re saying that Ukraine is going to invade and retake the land it lost?
Old_Wallaby_7461@reddit
That of course is not what I said. But we all know why you're claiming it was, don't we?
This war was an attempt to reassert Russia as the most powerful nation in Eastern Europe with an exclusive sphere of influence. It has not succeeded in this way.
mmbon@reddit
Germany in WWI was mostly on the defensive on the Western Front tho, the high watermark was the battle of the Marne and they retreated afterwards, then apart from Verdun and Operation Michael they mostly did Counterattacks or defended. They even retreated a lot to build their Hindenburg Line. In the west it was almost always a long grinding victory for the Entente.
Azzagtot@reddit
>Russia's spring offensive
Did they annouce it somehow? Or are we again dealing with western media stating goals and laying claims on behalf of Russia just to release a new articles about miserable failure on meeting these goals?
calmdownmyguy@reddit
Invasion are offensive in nature. russia wants the Donbas and they keep throwing troops at it. How is that not an offensive operation?
Azzagtot@reddit
Invasion are offensive in nature. ukraine wants the Donbas and they keep throwing troops at it. How is that not an offensive operation?
Guaire1@reddit
Russia is the one that wants the donbass. And has failed to capture it. Despite being the focus of russian military action much of it remains in ukraine's hands since the start of the war.
Gabe_Noodle_At_Volvo@reddit
They both want the Donbas, and right now Russia controls more of it than Ukraine.
Guaire1@reddit
Which is to say that russia has trying to capture all of it since 2014 and has failed miserably
Gabe_Noodle_At_Volvo@reddit
Yeah, but that doesn't change the fact that Ukraine will have to invade the Russian occupied Donbas to get it back.
calmdownmyguy@reddit
They aren't trying to retake it just hold it while russia exhausts itself. They're just sitting back and blowing invaders into small chunks of goo before they get close to the line of contact. Are you slow or just paid to look stupid?
Chipay@reddit
Ukraine's soil is basically marsh and swamp from autumn to early spring with the exception of heavy frost (which brings its own issues like digging trenches). The battlefield is most dynamic during the summer months, that's what gives the layman observer the perception of 'offensives'.
MarderFucher@reddit
It's media perception, but they basically have been on continous offensive since late 2023.
CluelessExxpat@reddit
No announcements. We also don't see some "extra" push on the frontline by Russia.
DensePoser@reddit
Merz speech admitted that Russia is winning in Ukraine. How else can you explain it?
fretnbel@reddit
Pretty clear that Ukraine will survive at this point. Maybe Putin will get Donbas at some point but Kyiv and Ukraine will be lost forever.
Azzagtot@reddit
With half of population gone since 1991? With no economy? With government being on a constant life support from EU and US to simply pay salaries for government workers?
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-states-america/eu-assistance-ukraine-us-dollars_en?s=253
Yeah, bright future of Wakanda is ahead of them, no doubt.
fretnbel@reddit
Oh jeez. I’m sure priorities won’t shift as soon as there is a peace plan. This is just sticking your head in the sand. If anything Ukraine will turn into a second Israel tech wise. The advantage in drone warfare will riple on into other domains.
Azzagtot@reddit
> This is just sticking your head in the sand.
I completely agree with you.
Valensre@reddit
What are they gonna win if that's so?
Firecracker048@reddit
People in this sub are gonna be VERY upset about this.
Russia is taking record losses right now, replacement levels at 15% below where they should be and businesses in one region have been ordered to 'volunteer' two employees to serve on the front lines.
No clue how anyone can spin russia trying to capture the Donbass sense 2014 and STILL not having it is Russia somehow winning, but hey. You do you I suppose
Throwaway5432154322@reddit
Predictably, found this comment at the very bottom with zero replies, probably because you got downvoted by angry pro-Russia lunatics with no actual way to prove you wrong
zlex@reddit
The mods lets this place die by never enforcing the content quality rule and letting it become overrun with garbage tier misinformation and propaganda
DadOnHardDifficulty@reddit
r/combatfootage is showing the saddest looking Russian soldiers getting deleted by the dozens. It's such a pointless waste of life. Like, it's not even war, it's just sending untrained people to their death via FPV drone.
baeb66@reddit
The last one I saw had a guy who looked like he was pushing 50 make the saddest looking face of abject horror before the drone exploded right next to him. Drone warfare is terrifying.
Pklnt@reddit
The data these medias use to claim a Russian slow-down are quite perplexing.
You guys are all free to look at popular mappers like AMK/Suriyak/PouletVolant and they all indicate that Russia is still slowly gaining territory.
I don't know where the fuck "mappers" like ISW get their data from, but I'm fairly certain they're applying a very weird bias when it comes to what territory is controlled by Russia/Ukraine or what constitutes a grey-zone.
Russia is definitely hurting, they're not going to keep up for long but I still think medias can't help themselves when it comes to making clickbait articles where something major is happening when in fact it's just business as usual.
We've had the same clickbait articles about Russia's economy/military in the past years where they stemmed from factual events but exaggerated (be it in the time-frame or the intensity) to make it sound like something exciting was happening.
Kiboune@reddit
And I bet our government doesn't mind this. I just hope they'll die already. They outlived my grandma and grandpa who now will never see the end of these 26 years of idiocy
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