Is Olduvai Theory tracking closest to the current situation?

Posted by nuevo_redd@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 3 comments

Olduvai theory posited that modern civilization would last from 1930 to 2030. Both the starting and ending year would have the similar energy use per capita rates hence the same material wellbeing. Approaching 2030, society would experience a series of rolling permanent blackouts. From then on society would slide slowly into the stone ages. There have been a few corrections to some dates but the hard deadline of 2030 stands.

Putting the immigration and population control issues aside, is this theory tracking close to what’s happening? The combination of energy supply issues due to Iran war, drought (hydropower), and lack of alternatives along with a demand issue from a Super El Niño and AI.

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MaximinusDrax@reddit

I haven't heard of it before so just read up on it. I have to say as far as hypotheses go it's rather weakly supported. Limits to growth came out 20 years prior with much more supporting background/simulations than simple postulates.

This theory was only finally formulated in 1996, by which point we had a plethora of more specific theories of material collapse, that are global rather than specific to the US. They were all backed by much stronger evidence.

Something truly catastrophic would need to happen for us to return to 1930 per-capita levels of energy consumption on a global scale (if you focus only on the USA whose industy was already developed by 1930 them the situation is different).

Also, when I see those 100 year omens they seem less credible from the get-go. It all sounds very millenial. Using a time frame that seems unique to us humans isn't very scientific. There will, of course, be a point in time during the material decline of this civilization where it returns to 1930 levels. That's not a prediction, just the intermediate value theorem at work. Saying that point will be 2030 requires more support.

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ImportantCountry50@reddit

Add my vote to 'Limits to Growth'. That book totally changed my worldview about 20 years ago. Since then all of my major life decisions have been informed by that book and I don't regret any of it.

Now, here we are, 50 years since the original publication and it is uncanny how closely we are tracking their 'business as usual' scenario. We stand at the precipice of steep falls in industrial output and services per capita, even while population and pollution continue to grow. Now and into the decades ahead.

I pray that I won't be alive to see the worst of it, but this year and next has me terrified. Good thing I saw this coming a LONG time ago and decided to just enjoy it while I still could.