Is the 80% dropout rate actually real?
Posted by No_Assignment_1199@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 101 comments
Pretty much the title. I find it pretty hard to believe that statistic is real as a lot of the other students at my school actually make it to their checkride, and some friends I know are already way past their PPL.
So to the CFIs out there; is that a real statistic in your experience? Do you guys actually lose 80% of your students before their PPL?
JT-Av8or@reddit
I thought it was more like 86% last time I saw that stat when I was a new CFI (in the ‘90s).
ManagedSpeed340@reddit
I think a majority drop out because they A). Can’t afford it. B). Don’t have the drive/passion to spend the high price in money and hours studying/training. C). Don’t have what it takes. Although anyone can throw enough money at training to eventually at least get their private. It’s mainly the first two points. 80% of total people that start training? Maybe. 80% of people that actually want to do this for a career? I highly doubt that.
TrollTollTony@reddit
I have several friends who completed ground school online, took a few flights and then crunched the numbers and decided they couldn't afford the training plus cost to own an airplane.
My grandfather didn't get a college degree, got a job in a factory and that single income afforded him to own a house, 3 cars, 6 kids, 2 planes (a Cessna 152 and a Cherokee 6) and take long vacations every year. Meanwhile I'm a senior engineer making relatively good money and don't think I'll ever be able to afford the same model Cherokee 6 my grandfather had. GA isn't a hobby for the everyman anymore.
Sacharon123@reddit
Why would you need to own a plane to fly if I may ask? Renting not an option in your country? (Dont know where you are located)
Vegetable_Log_3837@reddit
Part 103 is the hobby for the everyman these days.
Gentleman_Jim_243@reddit
100% correct.
I fact, I don't even know why I follow this forum anymore. While I COULD make myself pay for it, I don't want to have to give up most of my other hobbies and interests in order to do so.
acfoltzer@reddit
Well if you do decide to start, you'll have to give that stuff up anyway to have enough time to study through instrument. The money I was expecting, but I was surprised by the time commitment. My poor, neglected synthesizers...
FlowerGeneral2576@reddit
It depends on what you consider a dropout. If you include those that took a few flights, or even just a discovery flight, and never came back: I’d say it’s like 90%+. Not to mention people that took a lesson and then find out they can’t hold a medical cert.
Spectator_7950@reddit
Also I expect these days a lot are entering to eventually fly airlines and don’t like it that much as a career and find out about the costs and effort going into accumulating 1500-2000 hrs self paid.
FinalApproachGuy@reddit
literally nobody ever pays for their 1500hr build. the point is to get a job. and even if you don’t get a job, and pay for your own 1500 hours (which is not economically feasible in any way unless you’re a millionaire) not a single airline will even look at you.
what information is causing you to “expect” this lmao? 💀
x4457@reddit
I had ~220 people in my class at my university flight program. We were down to about 150 by Christmas break, down to about 100 by end of year, and we graduated about 40.
lzaacus@reddit
This is the best representation of the dropout rate. I’d also assume that of those 40 who graduated less than half ever landed a full-time job employed as a pilot. I know plenty of people who “graduated” and that was the end of it.
x4457@reddit
I'd bet it's closer to 75-80% of those who graduated wound up flying for a living.
Kowallaonskis@reddit
Yeah of all my friends who graduated WITH their certificates, all but 1 are flying professionally. To make it all the way to graduation, you had to be 100% committed.
MeatServo1@reddit
Sure, but that doesn’t control for surprise medical disqualification, death or dismemberment, criminal ineligibility, or any other less frequent occurrence. Individually, none happen often, but in the aggregate, it’s still 1% or 2%, maybe even as high as 3%. Just off the cuff. I don’t have that data.
KGB_Operative873@reddit
How would one find out about criminal ineligibility? Do they get halfway through the course then have to take a live scan or something?
CaptainChris1990@reddit
Or getting nailed for a DUI or some other disqualifying charge during/after training or even years later. Who knows. There was a kid in my class years back who slipped through the background check cracks, turns out he actually had a felony arrest record for showing up to an Obama speaking event with a gun lol
Kowallaonskis@reddit
Thanks Obama
MeatServo1@reddit
No, I mean like people who go to jail or commit felonies after getting a certificate and then can’t continue or ever get a job in aviation.
Ok-Selection4206@reddit
You can get a job after a felony and jail time, it's a lot of work but can be done. I personally know a former employee that had to go that route after some bad decisions.
LoetherS@reddit
Also, there must be a chunk that learn for fun. Early retirees that never intended to fly as a job. I've always wanted to learn to fly, but never wanted to fly as a profession.
djfl@reddit
Are the other 180 all dropouts? No failure / sorry you aren't good enoughs?
x4457@reddit
Less than 5% for sure. Very, very, very few people are incapable.
djfl@reddit
Why are there so many dropouts? I assume cost must be a big reason...?
x4457@reddit
Cost accounts for probably 80-90% of the drop rate. Probably 5-10% loss of interest, and then another 5% inability, and then 5% loss of in inability to qualify for a medical.
vsae@reddit
How does that work exactly? I mean you know how much things coat upfront, do people just ignore that or suddenly lose income? I'm eyeing career change and I know upfront that it would take around 80-120 grand to complete zero to atpl, if I didn't have money I wouldn't bother.
Ancient-Dust3077@reddit
For just your ppl?
x4457@reddit
No, through CPL.
Ancient-Dust3077@reddit
I guess that’s more reasonable. I wonder what the drop out rate to ppl is
Jolly_Line@reddit
Right? Also wondering the same, and simultaneously patting my old geezer ass self on the back.
x4457@reddit
Close to 50%. If not higher.
lilsmooga193119@reddit
Similar experience for me here in Australia at an integrated flight school program. First day of theory class we had 100 people in attendance. By the time ground school was over only 70 people ever made it into a plane and at the end less than 40 got a CPL, multi and instrument. Our head of flight school outright told us they run on the assumption of 2/3rds of students dropping out or not making it and that definitely was the case.
PhilRubdiez@reddit
I think I had about 230 in my class. I was one of 13 to graduate. Talking to one of my old instructors, I’m half of his students even still in the industry.
djc9880@reddit
Yeah about the same here. Started my first day at my program and the director was like “half of you will be gone by the end of first semester” started with almost 100 and ended with maybe like 20 or 30
spacecadet2399@reddit
This really depends on a lot of things. It's a very simplistic stat that's probably true in an overall sense, but is kind of meaningless without specific context.
First, I think there's a difference between intentionally "dropping out" and just not going to lessons anymore. For most students in the part 61 world, who are often paying as they go and doing something for fun, they often just stop going as finances dictate or as the training gets harder and maybe less enjoyable. But I don't think this is a conscious decision for most of them. It's like when I took guitar lessons as a kid; I thought "hey cool, I'm gonna shred" and then it ended up being mostly just alternate picking practice, scales and theory. When it got really heavy into theory, I just didn't feel like going to my lesson one day, and I slowly just stopped going at all after that. But I never told my teacher "I'm quitting" and I never thought about it that way. I was just kinda lazy and wasn't enjoying it. I always thought I'd pick it up again at some point.
But flight students like that would be considered "dropouts" for the purpose of this statistic. It's the same thing.
Second, I think it really depends a lot on why someone's taking flight lessons to begin with. In the part 141 world, the training is more focused on preparing students to fly for a career. The students know this going in, so they're pretty motivated. That doesn't mean they can't be surprised at what's actually expected of them too, so you do still get dropouts. But at the school I instructed at, it was nowhere near 80%. I'd say flip that number. It was maybe 20% that dropped out, but probably another 20-30% that washed out. Those are students who wanted to keep going but were essentially told they weren't up to standard. Some of those students then went on to part 61 schools, where they could learn in a more relaxed fashion. Most of them did still want to try to make some sort of career out of flying, and at least a few of those that I know about did that, albeit not for the airlines. At least, not yet.
On an individual basis, I don't think it's true at all that someone who's really motivated to learn to fly and has some idea what that takes has an 80% chance of dropping out. But I just don't think most students are really that motivated, and most flight schools aren't going to do much to give them that motivation if they don't already have it. So, they might just lose interest over time, or figure they'll get back to it when they have more money.
I'm sure that *some* do really just decide either that it's not for them or they can't hack it, and purposefully quit. But that's not anywhere near the 80% number. I think it's closer to the 20% number I experienced at my flight school.
Pies-aviator1@reddit
Yep. Then wait until you hear about the percentage that actually make it to the airlines lol.
Shadowinthesky@reddit
Started with about 90 students. 30 dropped out within the first month or two after realising flying isn't as glamorous as portrayed on tv. The next 30 dropped out by 6 months. Only 4 people went on to continue and have a career in the industry
TrevorTempleton@reddit
My daughter and I did ground school together—the first mother/daughter pair our instructor had taught. We both loved it and learned a lot, but one of the things I learned is that there was no way I would pass the physical (not a big surprise since I’m 78 years old, but have had a lifelong desire to learn to fly).
My daughter, though, stuck with it and recently completed her first solo. If all goes well, she should have her PPL soon. She already has a well-established career in another field, so she’s flying for the love of it.
Connect-Middle-6016@reddit
I’m now a CFI, but when I started my PPL we were about 10 in the class, out of that only 3 people made it to where I’m, 3 quit within the first couple months, one finished PPL but struggled to get CPL, the rest weren’t able to finish PPL due to several reasons. As an instructor now the main reason people quit is money issues, I’ve had several students who quit cuz of that
burnheartmusic@reddit
In a year of full time teaching full days every day I work, I’ve only had one student get to checkride so far. Most are trying to do it on weekends and it just doesn’t work well. Pretty much if you have 8 bookings a month, plan on around 3 of those being cancelled for weather, maintenance, sickness etc. so now you’re flying 5 times a month. With ground schools in there as well, you probably will fly 4 times a month. That’s not enough to progress in a meaningful way
7nightstilldawn@reddit
People dropping out is not the same as washing out. A lot of students quit because they realize they don’t want to risk their lives everyday for a pay check. Or, they don’t want to pay an arm and a leg for a career that they can sense they may not actually love.
89fruits89@reddit
The risk was my primary reason. Once I got into the actual learning I realized a plane just wasn’t going to do what I wanted. Was hoping for a little plane to take out camping with my bro maybe a state or two over.
Turns out you gotta to fly in mountains to get to mountainous camping spots. Also would I feel rested enough after camping weekends to fly? I dunno. Then to be safe id want IFR and consistent hours. So need to buy a plane a fly every weekend.
Basically, felt like I would have to give up all other things to feel safe in the air since it’s not a career. In the end… a shitty winnebago will do the trick and be a wee bit cheaper lol
Icy_Huckleberry_8049@reddit
YES, it's mentioned because it's actual or even a higher dropout rate.
Affectionate_Aspect4@reddit
Considering I just got offered $41.83hr, 5/12s guaranteed, $90 a day untaxed per diem, available Saturday pickup every week, all at $3300-$4000 every week, until July 2027...
I'd say yes, a lot of people do pause flying when they have a family, bills, responsibilitys. Even if you live at home with parents, saving 10-20k for a PPL, while working a minimum wage, warehouse, etc, it's pretty unrealistic. There are people in the military making 2k a month with zero bills minus their phone/entertainment, who can't save a dime lol.
twinturbsryguy@reddit
Got my Got my
TrentKama@reddit
Let's see, I was in a 2-year ATPL program from 2011-2013. We had 16 to start, 10 graduated, 9 still flying, 2 in other aviation jobs. Not too bad.
SuperCrye@reddit
It baffled me when my coworker from UND said 400-500 pilot students graduate from his program annually. It dwarfs our 141 program with an average to a handful to 15, and usually from various years of classes mixed together. I’m one of 3 out of my class of 25 who has CFI and beyond.
DatBeigeBoy@reddit
Actually yeah, most people who started their private with me wouldn’t finish because of an assortment of reasons. Money and time being the biggest two. People wanna become pilot because it looks cool and then bail when they realize how much work it is
Ancient-Dust3077@reddit
I wonder what’s the drop out rate after your first solo
joshsafc9395@reddit
Pretty accurate. Its because theres a low barrier to entry to start. Where med school or law school require mcat/lsat, essays, interviews etc flight schools you can be up and away w a credit card
InJailForCrimes@reddit
I’d say it’s pretty close. We’re talking beyond discovery flight.
HappiestAnt122@reddit
I mean does discovery flight really count though? A kid who did a take your child to work day with their lawyer parent and said this isn’t for me isn’t a law school dropout. If it isn’t part of an actual training curriculum I don’t really feel like it counts.
MehCFI@reddit
I’d say maybe 60-75% of discovery flights led to a second lesson when I was CFI and the overwhelming majority of those were collegiate 141 students and career oriented individuals. Of that maybe a quarter soloed and 10 percent got their private
Franks2000inchTV@reddit
I took a discovery flight, and it helped me discover how much getting your license actually costs. 😂
Vegetable_Log_3837@reddit
Same, and it not just the license. Ended up flying a paraglider lol.
InJailForCrimes@reddit
No, I’m talking about people who have gone beyond their discovery flight, and then quit.
d4rkha1f@reddit
Yeah, a lot come in gung ho and then quit as soon as it gets hard.
recoveringcanuck@reddit
I mean a lot of it is how expensive it is. I ran out of money a couple times before finally being able to finish my ppl.
_Windows_95@reddit
Mine was probably around 60% ish, though there are many reasons for stopping, whether it be financial, medical or lack of competence.
extremefuzz777@reddit
I don’t know what the actual number is, but it’s not that far off. Some people can’t afford it in the long run. From what I’ve seen that’s usually because they need more training, which means more money. Sometimes life just gets in the way and they need to money for something else. Sometimes people just loose the drive. It’s a lot of training after all.
Actual_Banana_1083@reddit
My daughter who’s flown many long trips with me started flying lessons and got about 5 hours in before calling it quits. She started to feel sick on every flight, and I think the reason is most of the flying we’d done together was cruising A-B, and now suddenly it was steep turns, stalls and circuits. I suspect there are many others who have similar issues.
Gentleman_Jim_243@reddit
Airsickness is why I quit also. I discovered that I'm extremely susceptible to motion sickness (likely an after affect of viral meningitis, twice!) and even have to take oral scopolamine before I take an airline flight.
throwaway5757_@reddit
I’d say close. A lot of students start training but never make it past solo. Once they solo the retention is much greater.
prex10@reddit
UNDs PPL ground school is the number one most dropped class in the entire university catalogue.
Yeah the stats are true even outside that realm.
A lot of people think getting a pilots license is like getting a drivers license. Go out, putz around, learn how to land and off you go. Then they get the reality check when they are bombarded with the curriculum level and knowledge. And the fact it's super expensive and that the learning never ceases to stop. That the check rides and review never stop.
Donlok21@reddit
I’ve heard that only about 8% of people here at UND completely finish the program. Don’t quote me on that though
Da_hoodest_hoodrat@reddit
Are you talking about the Grand Forks school? At least from my experience the accelerated program in Mesa at lot of the people stick through it to the end of PPL
prex10@reddit
Isn't it like 95% Chinese students there?
Da_hoodest_hoodrat@reddit
Hahaha absolutely not! I’d say maybe a 30-40% max. Good amount of AF cadets and guys using GI bill too though. Still a majority of American civis.
trashtriathlete55555@reddit
No idea about the fixed wing side, but definitely not true for helicopters. I think because the cost of entry is much higher, and it’s a niche industry as is, the students I instructed were highly motivated. 90% probably ended up getting at least their private.
AlexJamesFitz@reddit
I've always suspected it includes people who do a discovery flight and never continue.
nellonthemellon@reddit
A lot of people I’ve seen come to the school for a discovery flight aren’t even pursuing a license, they usually want get over a fear of flying or just to see what it’s like for the experience.
Davethemage17@reddit
It doesn’t
x4457@reddit
It does not.
run264fun@reddit
I agree with that statement. Although, not everyone quits forever.
I’ve signed off students to take their checkride and they’ve logged maybe 30h of training at another school months or years earlier.
In my experience, most people just run out of money and/or time.
I’ve had a handful that weren’t mature enough or flat out never tried learning away from the airport on their own.
Kdmtiburon004@reddit
There was probably about 30 in my PPL class. I know of like 6-8 that are CFIs and I know a bunch quit
AWACS_Bandog@reddit
Probably. Actually 80 might be a bit conservative if we take the pool of everyone who did a discovery to everyone who actually made it through PPL
Chago04@reddit
If you look at Airmen statistics, about 45-50% of people that get a student cert have gotten their PPL. If you look at license issuances (table 17 of the stats), 2025 had 58k Student certs issued and 33k PPLs.
Impossible-Bad-2291@reddit
I thought the statistic was medicals issued vs. PPLs issued? So for every 100 people who went through the trouble to at least get a medical, only 20 of them actually got their PPL.
Huge_Analysis_1298@reddit
I was the only one from a class of 24 people to finish the CPL, it is absolutely real
AnnualWhole4457@reddit
Pretty much, yeah. Most learners don’t even solo.
Several-Village5814@reddit
For sure it’s accurate. Money and commitment are the biggest obstacles for most people. When I was a CFI I didn’t even sign off very many people for their checkride because so many dropped out.
Almost_A_Pear@reddit
My PPL groundschool class started right after Covid restrictions started lifting. We started with 35, I was the only one left on the last night. Yeah it’s real.
ExecutivePhoenix@reddit
Yes it's true. In fact, I would say the dropout rate might be higher. The Military pilots will argue that their training is so superior to everyone that the drop out rate isn't that high. However they will forget to mention that you have to qualify for a pilot slot. It's not a guarantee, and THAT is significantly more selective. So the dropout rate isn't higher per se, the entry level acceptance rate is lower.
I started with 92 pilots in my class and I graduated with 5 when all was said and done.
Beautiful_Exchange_3@reddit
What school? What reasons did you hear for dropping out?
ExecutivePhoenix@reddit
Typically financial, scheduling issues (students waiting to be scheduled instead of being persistent about getting on the schedule), and just difficulty. A lot of people don't realize how much work and sacrifice it takes to get through in a reasonable time frame, and just call it quits. Others get hung up on one part of their training and can't make it past it.
One-Cauliflower-8770@reddit
70 some kids in my freshman college class… 3 of us are at airlines.
Miserable_Team_2721@reddit
I went to a large 141/pilot mill. Our ground class had 13 people in it.
Of the 13, 10 got their PPL. One guy was in class for only the first day. Another ran into money issues and the third decided he didn’t want to go through with it and go back to engineering after his second stage check.
Of the remaining 10, I think almost all of them got their instrument rating. It gets hard to track things from there because people finished PPL at different times and the original class got split up.
A big flight school having a hold of your 80k student loan is a good incentive to get things done.
Discount_Confident@reddit
Im sure the drop out rate is a lot lower at the more structured programs. Im sure the pay as you go route at a very chill part 61 school would likely see many more stop training.
Thomas-Ligotti97@reddit
I personally believe it’s more, way more.
I went to a part 141 school, and only 2/44 people in my private ground even got their ppl, and it wasn’t due to the school’s management or anything many of them just didn’t know what they were getting into I think
ViceroyInhaler@reddit
We lost fifty percent of all students after the first two semesters in our four year college program. I think we graduated with 27/100 initial students. So yeah it's seems somewhat accurate.
Hodgetwins32@reddit
As a CFI that got lucky with a jet job at 700 hours, this was so real, so many people don’t fully understand what they’re getting into, and frankly are just to lazy to take on this training. Lot’s of reasons behind it, but most people simply just don’t fully grasp the commitment.
perplexedtortoise@reddit
Many will find they can't pass a medical, can't afford it, or will simply lose interest.
Your typical college 6-year graduation rate is around 70% and that's with (generally) favorable loan terms, a larger support system, and the pressure of wanting to enter the workforce.
AgonxReddit@reddit
Some folks just want to kick the tires and light the fires and the going gets tough, they drop!
Acrobatic_Recipe7837@reddit
Geez just try hard and spend wisely. Do the work.
No_Assignment_1199@reddit (OP)
I have my checkride in a week, I’m not asking for me. I’m already committed to going all the way lol
NationalLaw478@reddit
CFI for 1200hrs. Yes, it was very accurate.
AGroAllDay@reddit
I’ll echo the sentiments of everyone else—yes, that number is pretty damn accurate
GopherState@reddit
In my experience between two flight schools in two totally different parts of the country it is definitely true.
bgrant902@reddit
It probably includes discovery flights, but it depends on the school. I went to a bootleg 61 where the student was incredibly independent and I saw very few actually finish the program. Ground school was online and scheduling was done on an app, so contact with instructors outside of in the airplane was pretty limited. My instructor didn’t even allow ground bookings for briefings because he was just there to time build. I would say 80% seemed right at my school. Actually, even a lot of the EAA scholarship recipients got their scholarships rescinded for taking too long or giving up. I feel like a 141 university where people hold your hand a bit more probably has a far lower drop out rate.
mckegger@reddit
No
rFlyingTower@reddit
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
Pretty much the title. I find it pretty hard to believe that statistic is real as a lot of the other students at my school actually make it to their checkride, and some friends I know are already way past their PPL.
So to the CFIs out there; is that a real statistic in your experience? Do you guys actually lose 80% of your students before their PPL?
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