Warnings about a food system breakdown, the overture to a Super El Nino, ice melt, UAE leaves OPEC, a comprehensive review of Long COVID, an attempted coup, and the Wars in Eurasia drag on and on and on…

Last Week in Collapse: April 26-May 2, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 227th weekly newsletter, and it might be the longest one yet. The April 19-25, 2026 edition is available [here]https://lastweekincollapse.substack.com/p/last-week-in-collapse-april-19-25) if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (in full, with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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A group of representatives for countries frustrated with the impotence of COP conferences met in Colombia for a two-day climate conference, to discuss [how to transition away from fossil fuels]https://phys.org/news/2026-04-nations-world-fossil-fuel-exit.html). 57 countries sent delegates, mostly from the upper-levels of government—but nobody came to represent the United States, China, India, or the Gulf petrostates. No binding agreements were made—only the hope to eventually have countries make an agreement next time the group meets…in Tuvalu. Colombia’s President declared that the capitalist model ruling humanity today is “suicidal” and unsustainable, and many attending the gathering called for large-scale debt-forgiveness in the Global South.

NOAA’s projection of the coming El Nino is literally going off the graph, with some extreme-end sea surface temperature anomalies forecast at over 3.5 °C warmer than normal. And a joint report from the EU and WMO confirm that “95% of Europe experienced above-average annual temperatures in 2025….The annual sea surface temperature for the European region was the highest on record….Wildfires burnt around 1,034,550 hectares, the largest area on record {equivalent to the size of Iceland or Cuba}….solar power {reached} a new contribution {of Europe’s electricity generation} record of 12.5%.”

The eminent climate scientist Dr. James Hansen predicts that 2026 will be our warmest year on record (so far), once the Super El Nino gets going in force. He is not alone in his predictions; estimates on the annual temperature anomaly keep rising. Temperature rise is accelerating, and some fear that the planet won’t cool down after the El Nino is through; we may be past 1.5 °C forever now.

A paywalled study in Nature Sustainability identified “ecological, and social tipping points that abruptly regenerate ecosystems and resources” and “have the potential to positively tip large-scale recovery of nature.” Unfortunately the study is locked and we cannot see more, but a summary of the study says there are four “positive tipping points,” including some very vague ideas: “nature-positive initiatives….{changing} consumption behavior….management of shared resources….{and} ecosystem recovery.”

Uzbekistan saw new record minimums for April at 26 °C (79 °F), while parts of Siberia saw daytime highs at 30 °C. Lightning strikes in Bangladesh killed 14 people in a day, most of them outdoor farm workers. New minimum temps in Nepal shattered old records by more than 5 °C. Several Indonesian island set new records as well for heat. And a late April snowstorm in Samara, Russia, killed three. India baked under hot temps again.

A UK research agency is planning a geoengineering project, or so they say, to spray salty water droplets high in the atmosphere so that sunlight will be reflected back. However, they have not chosen a location yet, operations will not commence until 2028 at the earliest, and the proposal must still pass through various approval stages. So it can’t be that urgent…

One NGO claims that, from 2024 to 2025, deforestation rose 66% in Indonesia, from 647,000 acres to 1.1M acres last year. That’s the equivalent to the size of Luxembourg in 2024, and the size of Australia’s Kangaroo Island in 2025. Analysts blame the loss of forest on expanding industry, new forest concessions under deregulated protections, palm oil, and pulpwood production. Meanwhile, planet earth’s albedo (the % of sunlight reflected back into space) is at another record low, at around 28.7%. This will increase earth’s energy imbalance more. And New South Wales is looking at restarting gas exploration for the first time in 10+ years.

Recent research indicates “an increase in upper-2000 m warm water thickness” affecting Antarctic ice. “The future climatic implications of a poleward shift in upper 2000 m CDW {circumpolar deep water} are substantial, given that the heat contained within CDW is the principal source of basal ice shelf melting.” In other words, changing water patterns is accelerating the melting of the bottom of Antarctic ice, and impacting carbon-rich deep water. And a pre-publication study concluded that extreme weather events in Antarctica—like the freak winter heat wave from July-August 2024, which saw temperatures exceed the seasonal average by 9 °C for 17 consecutive days—will be up to 26x more likely under high emissions scenarios, by the year 2100, when compared to a hypothetical situation with no human influence on climate.

A study from March found that “rivers may be losing oxygen up to 2.5 times faster than lakes and oceans globally.” The scientists estimate 1.5 billion metric tons of CO2 were emitted (mostly through the breakdown of organic material in the rivers) from rivers worldwide from 2002-2022, equivalent to about 3x the entire annual CO2 emissions of Brazil. Other research suggests that atmospheric dust pollution has an impact on heat-trapping that’s twice as large as previously believed.

As “ecosystems throughout the world slip closer to irreversible tipping points,” a study on Brazil’s deforestation found that, among other things, “degradation persists even after reductions in deforestation.” Public and private policies that may block deforestation still do not address the related forest degradation problem, nor risks from forest fragmentation or wildfires.

A research institution says tropical deforestation in 2025 was less than in 2024, by about 36%. 2024 was a record year, due to wildfires and agriculture mostly. In 2025 we only lost about 43,000 sq km—roughly the size of Denmark or Estonia. We are still 70% beyond the 2030 target that is believed to be necessary to stop & reverse forest loss.

A doomy study in Science of the Total Environment says that the previously-thought-stable carbon reserves in soil are actually not so stable. Instead, the study, supposedly “the world's longest soil warming experiment,” concludes that certain organic matter (believed to shed CO2 only by chemical reactions) can be released by simple long-term warming.

Snow cover in Greece’s mountains has been cut by more than half in the past 40 years, say scientists. And experts are alarmed over the March warming that swept across the United States (pop: 349M), and say that 2026 could be a year for massive water crises, especially around the Colorado River states.

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A study from April concluded that increasing exposure to synthetic chemicals is interfering with hormones and has “reduced fertility, fecundity, and even multigenerational harm” among a number of animal species. Including humans, of course.

The UAE is leaving OPEC (and OPEC+), in effect as of last Friday. As one of the cartel’s largest oil producers, the UAE’s departure will weaken OPEC, and also allow the Emirates to export oil beyond the caps set by OPEC. Meanwhile, since the closure of Hormuz, oil companies have been making huge profits if they’re based outside the Middle East.

Fuel prices are closing in on $5/gallon in the U.S. average, but have already blown past $6/gallon in California. In France, petrol prices are €2 per liter ($7.50 USD/gallon), and slightly more expensive in Germany. Rumors of shortages are sparking long lines of customers at the pumps. Parts of Africa simply cannot source enough fuel at all, and the situation will only worsen. And plane tickets may rise in price by ~20% as jet fuel also feels a supply crunch.

The new Ayatollah (who still has not been seen since his father was killed in March) decreed that Iran’s blockade of the Persian Gulf will continue, subject to a $2M USD fee that few countries/ships have been paying. Aid groups are calling for a “humanitarian corridor” for the Strait, but so far to no avail.

The skyrocketing price of energy has not seemed to have an impact on the rapidly developing data center industry, even in regions strapped for fuel. Supposedly, “Malaysia, which has emerged as one of the region's fastest-growing data center hubs, could see a sevenfold increase in power consumption by 2030.” Yes, the annual power consumption for Malaysia is somehow predicted to 7x over the next 4 years, so that data centers can process your data, and AI can churn out tailored responses to the hungry masses. Even as a global oil shortage is still worsening, and old power grids are strained further. This is not sustainable.

Speaking of unsustainable, global lithium demand is reportedly expected to grow 48x by 2040 (and production globally will double by 2029), as the EV industry really takes off, and electricity storage needs surge. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a big exploration for the key metal, and found large lithium reserves (some 2.3 million metric tons of lithium oxide), mostly in New Hampshire and Maine.

The billionaire CEO of JP Morgan Chase is warning about U.S. government debt triggering a bond crisis that could result in mass sell-offs, a tight liquidity market, and a government bailout the likes of which none have ever seen before. France’s economy grew 0% in Q1 2026. Global economic instability and uncertainty is also pushing more countries, including some unlikely ones (Uzbekistan, Guatemala) to start buying and holding gold reserves.

A fellow Substacker is warning about the multifaceted “poly shock” from the Iran War on global food supplies. In his well-composed post, he hypothesizes that the coming fertilizer shortage (it is already planting season in much of the world) is timed to cause extra damage during the Droughts & flooding caused/amplified by a Super El Nino. During extreme weather events, plants need special combinations of nutrients to survive, and many farmers large & small will not be able to adapt. Chemical shortages will also lead to pesticide shortages; he predicts a global maize yield decrease of over 40%, and about 50% of the wheat yields in a worst-case lack-of-pesticides scenario. Less for rice and soy, but he approximates the caloric damage at “around 3,790 trillion kilocalories, equal to the annual energy requirements of roughly 3.79 billion people.” He writes that Brazil’s food production will be hardest hit, and the major food importers Egypt (pop: 120M), Indonesia (288M), and the Philippines (117M) will suffer particularly hard. Plus tertiary effects on livestock, fish, migration, energy levels, etc.

A 46-page UK report on the risks to our worldwide food system from a variety of threats, including Drought, soil degradation, biodiversity loss, trade disruption, and more.

“Nature loss is accelerating across forests, soils, freshwater and oceans, pushing multiple Earth system processes beyond safe operating limits and towards tipping points….Once key ecological thresholds are crossed, ecosystem services like pollination, flood protection and carbon sequestration may collapse irreversibly on human timescales, with no technological substitute at scale….Acute shocks such as compound breadbasket failures, fishery collapse, trade disruptions and extreme weather, are already translating into higher and more volatile prices for food and other essentials….Increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) magnifies these pandemic risks….Ecosystems underpin human society. Their collapse will directly impact food security, supply chains, public health, and financial stability….Food grain production is concentrated into a few countries and global distribution managed by a few companies. Over 80% of the world’s wheat is produced in the top ten countries….Soil health is in precipitative decline globally….The food system also has several human-related chronic risks, including a skills shortage across the sector and globe, and weather-related impacts, such as extreme heat, on the ability of labour to harvest food….Another critical tipping point on land is pollinator collapse….If global warming, ocean acidification, overfishing and pollution continue on their current trajectories, the economic and social consequences are likely to be severe….” -selections from the candid report

A comprehensive review on Long COVID restates the dangers of the illness, plus possible treatments and lingering gaps in our knowledge. It is a great one-stop resource for the state of the science on Long COVID. Another study says that COVID’s neurodegenerative impact is similar to Alzheimer's and may raise the risk of dementia later in life. The many symptoms among Long COVID patients necessitates a tailored approach to each case, and not a universal treatment.

“The global prevalence of Long COVID remains uncertain, largely due to the absence of standardised diagnostic criteria, inconsistent public health surveillance, and regional differences in pandemic dynamics. Recent studies estimate that between 65 and 400 million people worldwide have experienced persistent symptoms following confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection….The persistence of live (chronic productive infection or defective viral persistence) or reactivated viruses (latent infection) is an area of great importance in increasing the pathological understanding of Long COVID….Epidemiological and immunological studies have linked viral and bacterial infections, including SARS-CoV-2, to an increased risk of autoimmune diseases such as vasculitis, type 1 diabetes, and inflammatory bowel disease….Emerging empirical evidence implicates several interconnected mechanisms, including immune dysregulation (such as autoimmunity), gut microbiome dysbiosis, coagulopathies, and viral persistence….There is a plausible link between damage to the autonomic nervous system and Long COVID symptoms, but the exact pathophysiology remains unknown….Abnormal sweating, bladder control problems, gastric issues, skin discolouration, increased venous pooling in the legs, as well as syncope and palpitations are commonly observed {in neuropathic POTS cases}....Many of the neurological and neuropsychiatric symptoms seen in individuals with Long COVID appear to involve neuroinflammatory cascades triggered by systemic inflammation. This inflammation may contribute to the disruption of the blood-brain barrier (BBB)....Chronic fatigue is one of the most prevalent and debilitating symptoms reported by individuals with Long COVID…Hospitalisation for COVID-19 is associated with a significantly increased risk of breathlessness and sleep disorders compared to non-hospitalised individuals…” -selections of the review

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The Islamist armed group JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks across Mali last weekend, reportedly in conjunction with a Tuareg separatist group, with the aim of overthrowing the government and possible separating the country’s north. Several military officials were slain in the attacks—a combination of drones, guns, and car bombs. At least one city in the north was captured, though other gains were only temporary. Other fighting is ongoing; casualty reports were not initially released, but scores of people are thought killed. Although the JNIM insurgency is unlikely to win, analysts say they are winning a long-game in forcing the country to accommodate their ideology progressively more. And another coup may be in the works.

A highway bomb in Colombia, attributed to FARC dissidents, killed 21 and wounded 33+ others. Another U.S. strike on an alleged Caribbean drug boat killed three; Reaper drone flights are becoming more common in the region. Somali pirates seized a vessel last Sunday, days after pirates captured two other vessels off the Somalia coast. Following a tribal water dispute in Chad, 42 people were killed, plus ten wounded; it is one of the country’s deadliest resource fights in recent years.

A train crash in Indonesia left 14 dead, and 80+ more injured. Migrants in Pretoria were warned to close their shops during a march against illegal immigration. The U.S. Supreme Court heard legal arguments for ending temporary protected status for several hundred thousand Haitians & Syrians who might be returned to their countries (or even the DRC ) if the outcome goes Trump’s way. Mexican special forces arrested the supposed head of the Jalisco cartel last week, amid an intensification of operations ahead of the World Cup.

An hours-long attack by Boko Haram on last Sunday in northeast Nigeria killed 29 people. The gunmen also torched a church and scores of civilian motorcycles. An attack on a Nigerian orphanage kidnapped 8 children. Reports surfaced of 154 dead prisoners who perished in a Nigerian military camp under mysterious circumstances (starved to death, mostly).

The UN is cutting its peacekeeper force in South Sudan by 5,000 troops, though hunger and conflict continue to displace people. In Afghanistan, Pakistani missile & mortar strikes killed 7, and wounded at least 85, at a university. Pakistani military officials also announced the killing of 13 people attempting to cross the Durand Line into Pakistan across two incidents on Thursday. The U.S. is moving 5,000 soldiers out of Germany, with more likely to follow.

In the 25 years that Reporters Without Borders has been producing a global Press Freedom Index, it has never before been this low. The Index ranks 180 countries on a 1-100 scale (where 100 is free & open), and found only seven countries above 85. A few interesting placements include: Norway (92.71) at #1, the UK (79.45) at #18, South Korea at (69.12) #47, Ukraine at (66.1) #5), the United States at (62.61) #64, Hungary (59.85) at #74, Haiti (50.32) at #107, El Salvador (38.88) at #143, India (31.96) at #157, Russia (23.15) at #172, and China (13.85) at #178. The Index uses 5 general metrics to assess the Press Freedom: Political, Legal, Economic, Social, and Security related factors.

Russian strikes on Oedsa wounded 11+, and a Ukrainian drone attack reportedly killed an employee working at the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant. Ukraine again struck an oil refinery killing none but causing a large blaze. Russia’s economy meanwhile contracted 0.3% in Q1, their first economic shrinkage since 2023. And a Ukrainian investigation into soldier morale found that soldiers stop caring about their lives about 40 days into a frontline posting. Lithuania arrested 13 Russia-linked saboteurs and attempted-murderers. And Ukraine blocked the sale of grain harvested on occupied Ukrainian land, transported on Russia’s so-called “shadow grain fleet.”

The Iran War is expected by some to stretch on indefinitely, since the fundamentals seem to favor Iran, and all sides are too proud to settle with a deal that would hurt them politically—not to mention the potential for an Iranian nuclear program. Yet in the meantime, the political and economic pain is only increasing for all. However, President Trump says the War is basically over already, that the ceasefire has terminated the conflict days before Congress is supposed to decide whether or not to authorize a full War. Experts say 2-9 months will be needed to actually wrap up the War and restore any sense of normal prices & supplies exports/imports again….once parties agree on a resolution.

Lebanon claims that 14 people were killed in an Israeli attack on last Sunday, in breach of their ceasefire. 37 others were wounded. Others were bombed while trying to rescue Lebanese trapped in rubble. Others were killed in other strikes on Thursday. Lebanon also accuses Israel of an ongoing ecocide on their territory, in effect since 2023—according to a 53-page report released in April. An IDF killing of a water engineer, plus a few water drivers, has obstructed the provision of clean water to many Gaza residents. Another famine is coming to Gaza, they say, as if the first one ended somehow. Israel also intercepted 22 aid boats from a convoy of 58, heading from Crete to bring relief supplies to Gaza. And Egypt is reportedly planning a live fire drill in the Sinai, causing fear among Israeli communities near the border.

Observers, and locals, fear that bombs in Sudan will keep exploding long after the shooting stops. Unexploded ordinance lies hidden across the old (and new) battlefronts of Sudan, particularly around Khartoum. Clearance operations done in 2025 removed hundreds of mines; thousands more may still lie under the rubble and sand. Updated estimates of the slain in the fall of el-Fasher in Sudan now place the number of dead (from starvation, sickness, or RSF massacres) around 70,000.

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Although COVID levels in the U.S. are at perhaps all-time lows since early 2020, the long-term effects of infections are still mounting. This weekly observation recounts some of the dangers of COVID, before segueing into a catch-all state of the United States, from the strange assassination attempt last week to the soulless gray color scheme that has supposedly taken over society.

-You are not alone in having an ongoing existential crisis. This self-post and the associated study indicates that 32% of American adults are experiencing some kind of existential crisis—most often relating to affordability. Others are walking on the fine line between general stress-induced nervous breakdown and functional member of society (i.e. “the economy”).

-The Haves and the Have-Nots in suburban Florida, as depicted in this well-written weekly observation are truly living in separate realities, even as they live in the same geographic region. Tools are being pawned, vehicles are being lived in, smokers are cutting down on their vices due to financial pressure, and the daily grind is chopping up the poor into tiny bits. And still Florida is swelling with new inhabitants.

-The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, for some reason, not resulted in $150+ per barrel prices of oil (yet), and the commenters in this well-cited thread on the topic addresses the global credit outlook, AI, and other topics closely related to the price of oil—which rose almost to a new all-time high on Thursday. Only for a brief moment in 2022 was the price of crude oil higher.

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