Oil hits $111 as Hormuz strait closure enters eighth week
Posted by petburiraja@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 115 comments
Reddit Draft
Title: Oil hits $111 as Hormuz strait closure enters eighth week
Brent crude at $111/barrel marks eight weeks of Hormuz closure, the longest sustained chokepoint blockade in modern history.
Iran has formally submitted a peace proposal with nuclear negotiations deferred to later stages, meaning Trump's response in the next two weeks determines whether $111 is a ceiling or a floor. A single LNG tanker broke through after eight weeks, which markets are watching obsessively, but one transit is not reopening. Even after a ceasefire, analysts project shipping insurance at 20x pre-war rates, so the economic damage outlasts the shooting by months. Iran's domestic storage is filling fast under the US naval blockade, which likely explains why Tehran moved on diplomacy now rather than later.
The conflict is also quietly destroying the sanctions toolkit itself. The sanctions circumvention infrastructure being built right now will persist after any ceasefire, wiring around restrictions permanently. BP's profit more than doubled on war-driven trading, redistributing wealth from consumers to producers at exactly the moment governments are absorbing cost-of-living pressure. Ray Dalio is now flagging stagflation, which would eliminate the Fed's ability to respond to an oil shock with conventional tools. A fire at RAF Fairford, the B-2/B-52 staging base for Iran strikes, is under active Pentagon investigation; confirmed sabotage would be the first successful infrastructure attack on a NATO base in this conflict.
The AI power struggle running in parallel is not separate from this. China vetoed Meta's $2B acquisition of Manus after a months-long probe, deploying regulatory tools against Western AI consolidation in direct mirror of US chip export controls. Simultaneously, OpenAI restructured its Microsoft revenue-sharing to enable a $50B Amazon deal, fracturing the assumption of single-vendor dependency at the frontier model layer. AlphaGo architect David Silver just raised $1.1B at a $5.1B valuation for a months-old lab building AI that learns without human data, which the market is betting bypasses the data bottleneck constraining every current LLM. SK Hynix NAND revenue surged 248% year-on-year, confirming the AI buildout is creating commodity supercycles well beyond GPUs.
Moody's raised China's credit outlook during peak energy disruption, positioning Beijing as the relative safe harbor for sovereign debt flows. The Pentagon publicly told Congress it has no defense against hypersonic or cruise missiles while requesting $185B for Golden Dome, the most consequential admission of US strategic vulnerability in years.
HardNut420@reddit
The oil market is a bubble
False_Raven@reddit
I wouldn't be surprised if this comment was real, but Holy shit I hope its fake
OrangeCrack@reddit
It’s real and doesn’t even rank in the top 10 most shocking things that Trump has said lately.
ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit
He's not wrong, though.
Bubbeet@reddit
Did he actually say that lol
disclosureanticlimax@reddit
that oil hasnt hit $150 yet is a thermodynamic miracle
Tearakan@reddit
It's market manipulation.
Oil costs way more at point of sale and the physical commodity traders who actually buy the oil are panicking.
pagerussell@reddit
It's not market manipulation, it's reserve drawdown, which happens sometimes.
The problem is, it can't go on indefinitely. Eventually, price will rise to the point of demand destruction, until it finds equilibrium.
If Trump backs down right now it might all smooth out. If this persists for another month, oil probably goes 30-40 higher and gas hits 10/gallon in parts of the country.
YouKnown999@reddit
I’ve seen economists saying the tipping point is right now or we’ve passed it already. Even if you had a magical reversal to 8 weeks ago. The market just has not caught up yet.
AntiBoATX@reddit
I think this is their manufactured crisis to force marshal law or whatever before the midterms
ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit
He got promoted to General Law
Decent-Law-9565@reddit
In a ploy to influence domestic elections the dude basically sent the entire world into a global recession which sounds a bit too stupid to believe. I thought the flag for martial law would be more ICE protests, especially at the summer.
pocketgravel@reddit
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
It's a miracle that my country (Serbia) didn't politically and socially collapse from the increased oil, LNG and petroleum prices yet. Probably because the current government was preparing for an event like the war that the United States and Isreal are waging against Iran.
wiseoldfox@reddit
It's a miracle because Trump works to move problems down the line. Eventually the lines converge and we blow up.
adrianipopescu@reddit
climed to over 122 now is holding more or less stable at 118
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
I recently heard news on the television channel that my family follows in my country (Serbia) that the Prime Minister of Great Britain Kier Starmer said that British people should prepare to face food and oil shortages.
Seems that political and societal collapse in Europe is upon us, unfortunately.
Sarcastic-Potato@reddit
If this situation continues (which it likely will) it's going to be a gigantic catastrophe in Europe and America. We have record high drought levels, record low snow melt almost every where, a giant el niño coming, fertiliser is expensive as fuck right now, fuel as well and most countries were already in a very bad economic situation to begin with.
SRod1706@reddit
Higher oil prices are a good thing. We should all be hoping for $200 a barrel oil.
waffledestroyer@reddit
brb buying more beer
merikariu@reddit
But it while you can. The fertilizer shortage will drive up the cost of hops. A drought in Idaho, where much of the input crops for beer is grown, will also affect the availability and price of beer.
hillierprotech@reddit
Ohhh, not the beer man. Why the beer? This is how riots start. Just let us have our cheap beer. They can't expect us to drink water.
merikariu@reddit
Coffee and chocolate too, brother.
hillierprotech@reddit
I can't sit on the porch and watch the apocalypse with a bag of chocolates...
Saturn_winter@reddit
I dont drink often, but a 6 pack of yuengling used to be 6 bucks and I just bought some the other day and it was 10, I was like what the hell lol. Not that thats in any way tied to current events, I have no idea how long the price has been up, just kinda shocked its nearly doubled since I last bought some
switchsk8r@reddit
shrinkflation which is really just price gouging is a bitch
ansibleloop@reddit
Hell of a way to force the world to move to renewables and EVs
Won't do anything to prevent what's coming, but hey, you can drive an EV for almost free
Johndough99999@reddit
Imagine a smug Orange going "I did that" when ev numbers skyrocket.
ansibleloop@reddit
I love Tesler!
SRod1706@reddit
You are right. It will only slow it down. CO2 is only one of many exponential curves to destruction we have going on.
ansibleloop@reddit
Actually this is really ironic the more I think about it
The faster we move away from fossil fuels, the faster we deplete the "sulphur shield"
So we'll actually warm faster
What a fucking time to be alive
The world when it's my turn to be an adult
guisar@reddit
I should thank you for the sulpher reference as I had to look it up.
I'm now more depressed about climate change.
Empty-Equipment9273@reddit
Yep just like when co2 eq jumped around 15ppm in a single year during covid
Empty-Equipment9273@reddit
Also evs still cause emissions in the production even running on a clean grid it’s half the lifetime emissions of a oil car
NeoNavras@reddit
best way for environment is living with no car in a city electric public transport. but otherwise half the emission for the total car ownership is still a good deal imo
Barnacle_B0b@reddit
The unfortunate truth is thay for all history on Earth, for all of life itself, extinction is the norm, and survival is the exception.
Romano16@reddit
While I am 100% in support of the EV/Hybrid evolution and the death of purely gas cars, America has chosen the dumbest people to lead and even if $200 a barrel is what really kicks off the EV/Hybrid market more the U.S. doesn’t have the infrastructure to handle both that and Data Centers being built.
It can barely handle the Data Centers alone and there’s already gripes with electricity & heat prices skyrocketing because of them. Now we are going to push people into buying strictly EV? Hybrid will be fine.
Positronic_Matrix@reddit
A price point of $200 per bbl would double gas prices and drive inflation into double digits. It would be an economic meltdown that would destroy the life savings of US citizens and impoverish tens of millions. You do not want this.
SRod1706@reddit
Oh. I see you point of view now. You are right. Shareholder value is more important than a livable planet. What was I thinking.
Positronic_Matrix@reddit
A price point of $200 per bbl could lead to extreme hunger and starvation for millions across the globe. You do not want this.
SRod1706@reddit
Climate change will be much worse.
Positronic_Matrix@reddit
I see that you’re struggling. 👍🏻
SRod1706@reddit
Might sure is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
That's the issue. There are no senerios, based on how things have worked for decades. All the so called progress we have made has just increased the rate of CO2 increase.
Dano4178@reddit
wait, you WANT gas to be that high?
endoftheworldvibe@reddit
Honestly, I just feel bad for those in developing countries.
merikariu@reddit
Amen. The poor people in the global are already feeling the sharp point of the fuel shortages.
guisar@reddit
Sub-Saharan Africa and much of SEA are fucked even in the near term.
whereismysideoffun@reddit
UAE is pulling out of OPEC, which likely will lead to others doing the same. They will probably then produce whatever quantity they want driving down the price unfortunately. I see petroleum in my life as a precious finite resource. I have to use it to some degree, and try to maximally use it for not needing it in the future. I am trying to speed run transitioning my farm to doable in a post supply chain and post petroleum world.
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
Heard the news about the United Arab Emirates (UAE) pulling out of OPEC and OPEC+ organizations on one of my country (Serbia's) television channels that me and my family is following.
The world's screwed thanks to the United States of America and the State of Isreal's war that they are waging against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Political and societal collapse is upon is, unfortunately.
Kootenay4@reddit
Tbh this war is probably the single most effective action that could have been taken to force a reduction in carbon emissions. Countries are scrambling FAST towards renewables in the name of national security, in a way that environmental goodwill was never going to accomplish.
True-Vast-3731@reddit
This is how you actually fix the world. If you ask people with puppy eyes and say "guys please go vegan, guys please stop flying, guys please stop buying so much stuff" people will drag their heels and bark back at you for having the audacity to question their choices.
But if you make it economically unviable to continue doing those actions, suddenly they change their tune real quick as to what they will and won't do in the name of survival.
SwissChzMcGeez@reddit
If only the high costs went to clean up the damage fossil fuels do, instead of enrich the bank accounts of oil oligarchs.
If it doesn't last, it just dumps a ton of money into oilmen's pockets so they can top the scales even more.
Kootenay4@reddit
Let’s hope it lasts, the longer it does the more permanent demand destruction will occur as the economy shifts towards using less oil.
I’m not excited for everything to cost even more than it already does, but I also want a livable planet when I’m old
AwakePlatypus@reddit
In a way, yes. But it's going to take down the entire economy along with it.
SRod1706@reddit
A better economy = a shorter future. BAU is killing us.
incognitochaud@reddit
Finally, someone gets it.
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
Not to mention the world's economy, as well.
Bluest_waters@reddit
Correct, and that needs to happen!“The economy” is literally destroying our biosphere. All of humanity only exists because the biosphere is there.
Wave_of_Anal_Fury@reddit
Yep. That so many people are complaining about how much it costs to fill up their tanks (I'm looking at a few of the posters in yesterday's "Weekly Observations" discussion) illustrates how being collapse-aware doesn't necessarily mean you understand what's going on and what needs to happen.
Our entire culture has been built on cheap fossil fuels, priced at a level that has never taken into consideration their impact on the environment. If that impact on the environment had been considered, they would have been priced so high, using them would have become a luxury instead of a staple. But instead, people yesterday were talking about how high prices were going to impact their road trips and other vacation plans.
And yes, a lot of climate scientists are loving the Iran fiasco. Not the death, not the destruction, but what it's doing to prices. They may love to talk about policy and technology, but they also know the only thing that will force people to give up fossil fuels is making them too expensive to use.
s0cks_nz@reddit
Being in NZ my concern is actual supply more so than price. But yes, given this is the biggest oil crisis ever it's crazy how low the price is still. In 2008 oil hit $147 a barrel. In today's money that's ~$225.
PhoenixAsh7117@reddit
Trump is so bad at business he might accidentally save the world by being an oil tycoon.
ideleteoften@reddit
Not if you like to eat food it isn't.
I guess being slaves to petroleum is the best we could do as a species. Live by the oil, die by the oil.
thatboycameron@reddit
if you're trying to trade oil moves like this in real time, traditional brokers leave you stuck til monday which is brutal when news breaks on weekends. interactive brokers has premarket but not true 24/7. markets.xyz runs around the clock including weekends so you can actually react when sattellite photos or peace proposals drop.
Romano16@reddit
The truth is that oil should be likely $30 to $40 higher.
Trump has done nothing except guarantee the strait remains closed.
In my opinion I can see operations ramping up between May or June as there are 3 aircraft carrier strike groups there and lots of other logistical equipment to assist with airstrikes. Israel will only assist in this way as well.
However, there doesn’t appear to be any legitimate sources on how many U.S. soldiers were already wounded or killed. Wasn’t it at most 15? The real number is rumored to be hundreds injured and more killed.
Saturn_winter@reddit
Oil IS higher. The futures market is not real and is heavily manipulated, the actual spot price of oil right now is significantly higher, last I've heard around 150, but I don't have access to the real time data and we usually have to rely on articles and reports from people who do have access. But the actual "I want to buy a barrel of crude" price is like 30-50 points higher than the paper price for the last month.
s0cks_nz@reddit
From what I've heard it's closer to $170 in Asia.
loralailoralai@reddit
Shame America isn’t feeling the brunt of the whole thing. t might be more circumspect then.
Johannes_P@reddit
OTOH, plenty Asian countries make goods they sell to the USA and so will pass most of the oil shock to the consumer. Hello, inflation!
KnowledgeMediocre404@reddit
$286 in Sri Lanka
https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/sri-lanka-forced-pay-286-barrel-oil-hsbc-confirms
stasi_a@reddit
Good thing they’re rich and can easily afford it
roytay@reddit
So why are people selling future barrels for so much less? They either (think they) know something or they're going to be crushed when those futures contracts come due.
JustAnotherYouth@reddit
The most recent episode of the “Oil Ground Up” podcast looks at this. It has to do with how futures contracts for Brent Oil are settled and there’s a lot of manipulation of futures right now.
If you hold oil futures and Trump starts tweeting out lies about a peace deal the market might react by dramatically lowering prices. When holding futures that could for example trigger a margin call which would mean you lose big even if in the long term prices rise.
Saturn_winter@reddit
Yes they will be crushed. But it's largely governments who are suppressing prices so it'll be them absorbing the loss and the citizens will pay for it through taxes like usual, rather than the comparatively small amount of non-government investors who trade futures who will also get crushed but they don't really control the price because theyre a drop in the bucket compares to the fed who can continuously pump billions into it
Bluest_waters@reddit
Yes correct. Actual physical oil prices are going crazy. In the real world. The market is being wildly wildly manipulated right now to keep oil prices as low as possible. But the reality is that can only happen for so long period eventually hardcore reality will come crashing down on the market, you will see
LovesFrenchLove_More@reddit
Oil companies like BP profiting massively right now. So does the US (not the normal people, the companies and politicians) because some countries are desperate enough to buy US oil despite the US being responsible (along with Israel) for this crisis in the first place.
terrortara@reddit
People who oppose wealth redistribution need to understand we already have ongoing redistibution. It is ALL a wealth transfer. All of it. There has never been a day in the past 80 years where inequality has not gotten worse.
LovesFrenchLove_More@reddit
Good luck trying to explain that to dickheads like MAGA.
Tearakan@reddit
There is no way for us to actually stop Iran's control over the straight. We would need at least half a million troops for any kind of significant invasion to actually stop their drone launches.
Especially since we clearly cannot match their missile and drone production with enough interceptor manufacturing.
Bluest_waters@reddit
That ship has sailed so to speak. Trump has made it essentially permanent that Iran will maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future. Because why wouldn't they? At this point they have nothing to lose. He backed them into a corner and they did what they desperately needed to do to survive and now the whole world will be beholden to them if they want their oil.
pagerussell@reddit
When his all ends Iran will control the strat and be able to charge for every tanker that goes through it. Iran will effectively have a pure profit fee on a quarter of the world's oil.
Brilliant job Donnie.
nerdpox@reddit
in any currency they ask for, btw
Dano4178@reddit
which is when they collapse the US dollar, and life in america is over
Tearakan@reddit
Yep. And he's effectively helped Iran now become a global player.
guisar@reddit
With a lot more incoming revenue and significant "allies" among those who want to ensure their continued use of the Strait.
Masterventure@reddit
Maybe at some point the world will celebrate trump for his commendable efforts in dismantling the US empire
potorthegreat@reddit
Iran claimed that the US blew up several of its own soldiers along with the planes and helicopters at that rescue operation.
brad2008@reddit
If I understand the energy analysts correctly, the $111 Brent crude price is a futures price based on speculation. If you want to physically buy a barrel, today you would need to pay the Dated Brent" price, which is closer to $140/bbl. The Brent futures price paints a slightly more optimistic picture.
Bubbeet@reddit
where are you getting the dated price from?
brad2008@reddit
Purchasing physical oil for immediate delivery is currently vastly more expensive than the "paper" price quoted on financial screens. The $108/bbl figure is the latest financial settlement price, but in the actual physical market for immediate loading, you would likely face a price closer to $135–$140/bbl.
Here is why the "real-world" price is so much higher than the exchange price:
The "ASAP" Premium (Backwardation) Dated Brent vs. Futures: For 10,000 physical barrels (Dated Brent), you are paying for immediate availability. Physical Premium: As of late April 2026, the Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) premium is roughly $25 per barrel. Calculation: If futures are ~$111, adding that $25 physical scarcity premium puts your actual cost around $136/bbl. [S&P Global]
Supply Shock Reality Strait of Hormuz: Because this chokepoint handles 20% of global oil, its closure has created a "scramble" for physical barrels that exist outside the blockade. [CNBC]
Record Highs: Physical Dated Brent hit a high of $144.42 earlier this month. While it has softened slightly due to a fragile ceasefire, analysts at Energy Aspects warn that the financial price is "masking the true tightness" of the physical market. [CNBC]
MobilePenguins@reddit
I feel like the gov is just trying to buy time (also midterm elections panic) and they’re artificially keeping it down below the point that demand would set the price in a truly free market.
This can’t go on forever. The cracks will show and the price will auto-adjust to where it should have been this whole time all at once. It’s going to break countries like Japan and South Korea first, and then make its way to us here in USA.
Jovan_Knight005@reddit
That has been happening in many European for the last several weeks. My country Serbia's government is keeping oil, petroleum and LNG prices steady, but those won't last long.
It's only a matter of time before those price increases reach the United States of America.
MobilePenguins@reddit
Supply is gonna run low as reserves are depleted, demand is going to stay the same or even increase, the result will be more expensive oil
Efficient_Award77@reddit
12 new photos of Trump in Epstein's files
I can't comprehend how this pedophile became president of America. Every day more evidence emerges that he is the most foolish president in American history, without a doubt.
disclosureanticlimax@reddit
you do realize the first american presidents were all slave owners? the u.s was literally built from human trafficking
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Washington--yes; John Adams--no; Jefferson--yes; Madison--yes; Monroe--yes; John Quincy Adams--no; Andrew Jackson--yes; Martin van Buren--yes
As George Carlin said, our Founding Fathers were slave owners who wanted to be free.
potorthegreat@reddit
The only country in history to ever pass anti-literacy laws.
collapse-ModTeam@reddit
Articles, charts, or data-driven posts must include a source either within the image or in a submission statement.
Banned: DailyMail, Twitter/X
Preferably submit in-depth content (eg papers, articles) over short-form content (eg Bluesky, Mastadon) to avoid 'sound bites' and low effort content. All contents' authors must be 'credible' (eg recognized credentials, industry respect/history, well known science communicator)
JJBeans_1@reddit
Pics 1, 2, and 11 are revolting.
highpressuresodium@reddit
2 doesn't look real
allonsyyy@reddit
I only checked the first one and it came back as a fake.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fact-check-fake-photo-shows-053353406.html
DisingenuousGuy@reddit
That's a big oof that misinformation and forged photos are being slipped in. Those extra fingers on the child, and missing nostrils on a person is a dead giveaway when you really zoom in close.
allonsyyy@reddit
Yeah, sharing fake photos is supremely unhelpful, imo.
Account has a hidden post history too, probably a bot. I reported it.
DisingenuousGuy@reddit
I saw photo 11 before.
It was recolored and cropped in the link above. The reason for the crop?
Epstein's legs were completely missing in the uncropped version, and the photo's authenticity was disputed due to this two years ago.
96-62@reddit
People have been in kind of an anxiety funk about saying the wrong thing for decades though. For someone to finally say it's okay, to functionally make it safe? Very powerful. That goes directly to where people live, in a way very few other things do. So many people aren't confident navigating that world.
Arklese1zure@reddit
Ah, but he said he was completely exonerated. Whatever that means.
Barnacle_B0b@reddit
Republicans : "Drill Babies, drill!"
MTLHABSCANADIENS@reddit
Eh, people are only at the level of complaining, which means they can still afford it but are just whiny about it. Wake me up when it hits $150
Drone314@reddit
Guess what's playing 24/7 on MSM and the TV? I'll give ya a hint....it aint this.
Reasonable_Swan9983@reddit
Can someone enlighten me where can I check the price of oil that states the price in the title? Is this the wrong chart to look at? https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USOIL/
Also, I tried to find out about "oil in a month and a half is already trading north of $150/bl" from another thread 5 days ago but I can't seem these future prices as well.
This is not to deny or downplay the crisis but I'm genuinely confused about the numbers being reported.
daviddjg0033@reddit
You would never look at one information source you would look up oil futures contracts by month for December and July as the front month. 2027 in the futures. $USO is US Brent. $OILK and $BNO brent.
Reasonable_Swan9983@reddit
Thanks! Is this one fine? https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-contracts Seems like it peaks in june but I suppose it's constantly changing and it'll look way different as situation worsens or improves
petburiraja@reddit (OP)
Source for this data point in post is this: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Tops-111-as-Analysts-Raise-Forecasts-on-Hormuz-Stalemate.html
Reasonable_Swan9983@reddit
Thanks! So brent is the international one and wti is usa only. Now I'm still curious about the price statements from the other thread, if someone wants to check it out it's here https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1stxkn5/comment/oi0lnsv/?context=3
ansibleloop@reddit
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude
jaymickef@reddit
I guess there no chance that coming out of this Iran could recognize Israel and a Palestinian state and some actual borders could be established.