UAE to Leave OPEC and OPEC+ Next Month to Pursue New Strategy
Posted by Cao_Ni-Ma@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 52 comments
Posted by Cao_Ni-Ma@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 52 comments
Firecracker048@reddit
Huh.
Turns out bombing your Oil cartel partner could have some consequences. Iran is unironically gonna make the UAE alot richer because of this and this could be used to even break apart OPEC and make a new one without Iran.
this_dudeagain@reddit
All these oil rich countries aren't going to put up with Iran causing problems forever especially if it's impacting their bottom line.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
It wasn’t Iran who started this war, that was very much the US and Israel.
So how about you change your flair to the more fitting “United States” you are most likely from to peddle this kind of “Iran started it!” Propaganda?
this_dudeagain@reddit
Oct 7th is what led to this war.
shieeet@reddit
One, there is no credible evidence that Iran helped to plan or even knew about the October 7th attacks whatsoever. lol.
Secondly. the notion that anything new "started" on October 7th is a bafflingly shallow assessment, I'm surprised anyone would admit thinking so publicly. lmao even.
this_dudeagain@reddit
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202410125336
Living in a bubble must be nice.
Nethlem@reddit
Any particular reason you are linking to a dubious outfit like Iran International, for something the NYT reported, instead of the primary source NYT?
That's the kind of behavior why fake news are problem, you are contributing to it.
shieeet@reddit
Lmao, bruhh, when I said credible evidence I didn't say: please link to a comically notorious Saudi Arabian propaganda with literal ties to Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself, and in which article, other than really weak conjecture, links to no proper sources but the one New York Times piece leaning on "found Israeli evidence" that's already literally been debunked as absolute dogshit. And if that wasn't laughable enough, that Israeli 'evidence', even if it was true, which it clearly isn't, still does not claim that Iran either planned or directed the October 7th attack, which still nullifies the previous silly suggestion that "Oct 7th is what led to this war".
Please Mr. Totally-Not-Living-In-a-Bubble, go on, this is great 😂
this_dudeagain@reddit
Copium haha. All good brah.
shieeet@reddit
Yeah, uh-huh, I totally super-coped when I posted a debunked article from a Saudi propaganda site that didn't even prove what I was attempting to argue 😂👍
shieeet@reddit
Yes yes, there totally won't be any other consequences for this!!
It's not like Iran's main enemy hasn't bound their entire goddamn economy on some kind of "petrocurrency", which has for decades been predicated on stable high oil prices or something, so much that it has at several times been used as political leverage against said enemy. A global oil price war will surely have no negative impact on said petrocurrency, and contrary to the stated goal of Iran, oh boy, those Iranians must be embarrassed now that some UAE kleptocrats get to sell oil cheaply, of which 50% of the oil still needs to pass the Strait of Hormuz, somehow.
🤪👍
Trollimperator@reddit
So the Oil pricing cartel breaks open. Not the worst news i heard this year. Not that it matters much with the war going on right now. But it might create interesting new price finding in the future.
Note that the UAE are said to have to lowest break even prices for oil. Also they have maybe the closest US-relations in the golf.
They might go for a "protection for control of the oil price"-approach.
Opening-Cheetah467@reddit
we call uae israel but disguised as arab
ThatHeckinFox@reddit
I am not as informed about Middle East stuff as I should be. If you have time and energy, it would be interesting to read an elaboration on that.
Opening-Cheetah467@reddit
Practically any civil war in the middle east, they are funding the illegitimate counter part to the legitimate/elected government. Sudan, Libia, Syria (before last gov change), Iraq. Even they are funding in Ethiopia to help create water crisis in Egypt because of the dam they are creating (hint: Egypt is doing nothing useful to counter that). Also they are sending money to israel to help eradicate Palestinian. Also on the political side they are always on the side of Israel (Ibrahim accords, normalize relationship with them, host israeli extremists, also ban and demonize Islamic brotherhood who are the only one trying to resist israeli occupation)
saracenraider@reddit
Which side is legitimate is entirely in the eyes of the beholder
Opening-Cheetah467@reddit
Okay let me phrase it differently: they are supporting the side that mass kill people and commit the worst of worst of atrocities.
saracenraider@reddit
Even that is very open to interpretation. We don’t live in Disney movies, there’s very rarely a good side and a bad side, simply different shades of bad
Opening-Cheetah467@reddit
Imposible, just check Sudan
you can’t simply say “both sides are equally bad” only israel has the right to say so \s
saracenraider@reddit
I’m not saying both sides are equally bad, I’m saying they’re different shades of bad, and people will manipulate the bad things to make the other side look worse. Both sides will always have done enough bad for the other side to focus on and claim moral superiority
Chipay@reddit
It'll be interesting to see if the UAE will use their new liberties to pressure OPEC nations to take a harsher stance towards Iran. Oman might get nervous.
ImpossibleDragonfly@reddit
Interestingly enough OPEC is what allows American shale to be able to produce at a profit. If the price of oil is allowed to plummet then it would wipe out American oil and gas which would leave America dependent on the middle east.
No2Hypocrites@reddit
Why don't they drop it and force bankruptcies on American oil and then increase it again?
onespiker@reddit
That’s kind of what they tried to do between 2014 and 2020.
ThatHeckinFox@reddit
That would be funny. I wonder who would their disgruntled conservatives elect next. Maybe Sam "I can't bring myself to say I would mind humanity going extict" Altman, for good measure, maybe. Or just straight up clone Hitler. Make a white Pol Pot clone for maximum idiocy
DeepState_Auditor@reddit
That reminds me, of the ppl that thought the Uk would get a better deal after leaving the EU.
No they won't ,thats not how leverage works.
big_cock_lach@reddit
These are 2 very different entities with very different goals.
The EU is a multinational government that aims to have a united policy across European nations. OPEC is an oil cartel designed to manipulate oil prices to maximise profits.
Threatening to leave the EU isn’t going to get you the policies you want if no other member wants those changes. Leaving OPEC will mean that the other nations aren’t going to be able to manipulate oil prices as easily, and it will add competition to these prices. The UAE threatening to suddenly and significantly drive down these nation’s main revenue will have a lot more influence. It may not be enough depending on the UAE’s demands, but it’ll definitely hurt the OPEC nations a lot more.
No2Hypocrites@reddit
What's the difference between a union and a cartel to you?
A labour union is also a cartel designed to manipulate worker contribution to maximize salaries then.
OPEC is doing what they can. What anybody would do in their circumstances
onespiker@reddit
It varies uae wants to make more money by producing more in total while Saudi wants to make more money by producing less.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
Good thing then the person you replied to didn’t write “It’s the exact same situation” but rather wrote it reminded them of Brexit and the UKs delusion of grandeur of being able to dictate terms to a massive trade block.
You giving a mini-TED talk about “EU and cartels are different things!” does not change the reality how cartels exist so they can shape the market in their favor, at an advantage to its members and the disadvantage of non-members and customers.
This might just as well be a bluff considering most of them can’t export anyway so the UAE doesn’t even really have that leverage.
gs87@reddit
how do you threaten a cartel after leaving it ?!
giboauja@reddit
They could create a snowball effect that creates a race to the bottom. They have largly diversified their economy. The others have not.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
Except UAEs Economy is still mostly reliant on oil exports.
onespiker@reddit
30% compered to thier neighbours is pretty good. They aren’t fully diversified yet ofcourse but they are far further a head and were on good pace to further reduce it until something happened..
Chipay@reddit
By no longer abiding by their rules. The point of OPEC is to maximize oil profits while keeping it cheaper than alternatives. If the UAE starts a price war against the rest of OPEC then profits, and state income, will plummet. Leaving OPEC might indicate a willingness to do just that, granting the UAE increased leverage in the short run.
If the US wanted to weaken Saudi Arabia then they wouldn't have started this war, or at least moved to resolve it much faster. Saudi Pipelines are one of the few things that keep some of the oil still flowing.
AwkwardTal@reddit
But how would they even deliver their cheaper oil? Through KSA's pipeline? Through the blockaded strait? That's a no from both.
Chipay@reddit
The UAE has a pipeline that's able to bypass the strait, but maximum throughput is only at around 2 mbd. The UAE is currently producing 3.4 mbd and wants to reach 5 mbd by 2027.
So you're right to some extent, dunno how they think to reach those numbers with the current conflict.
Opening-Cheetah467@reddit
and one missile can solve it, i have \^%%$ towards uae to be totally clear
Firecracker048@reddit
to be fair, Iran tried to take out those pipelines. Didn't quite work.
Opening-Cheetah467@reddit
They didn’t try hard enough
Namika@reddit
And UAE can repair it. Pipelines aren't exactly complicated, it's a tube and a pump.
Hitting ports or LNG facilities does actual lasting damage. Hitting a pipeline is minor and fixable.
onespiker@reddit
Another thing is also size. To do substantial damage it has to be a direct hit. They are long but they aren’t exactly very wide. Compère them to an actual building or facility they are a lot hard to hit.
FapTapAnon@reddit
By making a deal with Iran, might even sell oil in yuan just because the US might not agree with the deal.
AwkwardTal@reddit
You are right, if tensions escalates further I wonder if Iran would even allow that too, the pipeline is pours close to the strait and iran regardless
frostcanadian@reddit
Oil is a traded commodity. If they increase their production and can deliver it, then the increase in offer will drive the price down and will piss off OPEC nations. But that's a huge if, I don't think they can achieve that
tsardonicpseudonomi@reddit
The opposite I suspect. UAE is incredibly vulnerable to Iranian attacks as they're on the outs with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Now that they're out of OPEC(+) they've shed the moderate protection they had.
theonlyjambo@reddit
The UAE still doesnt understand that they are punching above their weight. I expect them to crawl back to the GCC and OPEC sooner than later.
nycdiveshack@reddit
UAE will do what the U.S. and Israel wants it to do in turn they want more support as they continue the ethnic genocide in Sudan.
UAE is the cause of the crisis in Sudan.
In Sudan the RSF supported by UAE are killing everyone since 2023.
400,000 dead. 12,000,000 forcibly displaced. 24,000,000 suffering from severe malnutrition.
Over 14,000 women and girls raped. A portion of the $120 million meant for Sudan approved by Congress in 2024 through USAID which then was frozen by Trump would have gotten directly to healthcare (physical and mental) along with food for those women and girls. PBS did a great job covering that exact aid…
https://youtu.be/7DARp8THT0U?si=CMwk44upeW5LlmcY
The UAE buys most of the weapons from the UK and China
cmrd_msr@reddit
I wonder if unknown unmanned boats will suddenly sink tankers carrying oil from the Emirates.
I don't rule out the possibility of such a scenario.
imunfair@reddit
This is the second big change from the UAE - not too long ago they threatened that they may have to leave the "petrodollar" and start selling oil in yuan if this conflict wasn't resolved before they ran out of dollar reserves.
It'll be interesting to see if the US offered them a deal, leave OPEC in return for the same sort of assistance we gave other gulf states, or if this is them following through with the yuan threat. I'm guessing it's the former but I can't find any details on this "new strategy" after skimming a couple articles on the situation.
Sufficient-Eye-8883@reddit
There are too many uncertainties about this. Maybe they want to weaken Iran, to appease Trump in exchange for God knows what, and maybe they just want to maximize profits before green energy eats up their market (a stretch, I know).
Halbaras@reddit
I wonder if the UAE is worried that this war has accelerated the decline of oil and the world revolving around middle eastern petrostates.
Perhaps they've done the maths and decided that a race to the bottom that wipes out the marginal producers now buys them more time that trying to continue reducing supply.