Something Is Brewing in the Pacific That Nobody in Washington Wants to Talk About

Posted by Regumate@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 99 comments

SS: Meteorologist Chris Gloninger breaks down ECMWF model guidance showing a potential super El Niño forming this summer / fall, with sea-surface temperature anomalies of ~2.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region which would exceed the 1997 and 2015 events and potentially be the strongest in 140 years.

The critical difference this time is the baseline: global warming has nearly doubled its pace since 2015, meaning this El Niño would land on top of temperatures already 1.4–1.5°C above preindustrial rather than the 0.6–1.0°C baselines of previous super events.

Implications include compounding drought and flood risks across global food-producing regions, intensified atmospheric rivers hitting an already snowpack-depleted California, and potential commodity price shocks.

Meanwhile, the EPA is moving to repeal the Endangerment Finding that underpins all federal climate regulation in the US in the same week these forecasts are emerging.

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extinction6@reddit

The real question is how many apes will not tell others not to have children. There is no reason for a 20 year old child to realize that they got F'd due to ape reaoning

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AlwaysPissedOff59@reddit

Yesterday I was at a low-key birthday party for a one-year old. There were four other children aged 3 or less in attendance. These are all children from well-educated people. *sigh*

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nimrod4205@reddit

Hi, I'm one of those well educated apes with two littles. I can't imagine my life without them but I mourn for them knowing what kind of world they'll inherit. Had I known what the future looked like when we had them, I don't think we'd have had them.

As for sharing the news with other apes? Anytime I try, they look at me like I'm wearing a tin foil hat. I definitely won't be having any more but I can't do anything about the ones I already have. We're moving from Texas to the PNW in a month or two in hopes or giving them a little bit more comfortable or a life but obviously there's no predicting exactly how each region looks in the next 100 years but we're still just doing what we can now that we're collapse aware.

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AlwaysPissedOff59@reddit

My best wishes for your move escaping the current shithole and future hellhole that is Texas. :) If I were to predict something this year I'd predict that the Texas grid will collapse in the heat of August.

My "littles" are in their 30s (back then, the USSR had just fallen and we decided that the threat of nuclear annihilation in our lifetimes was minimal). I dread hearing one of them tell me she's pregnant, and rejoice each time she asks for a beer.

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Royal_Register_9906@reddit

Full blown collapse doesn't suddenly happen. But in my smooth brain opinion, this is a major point. I think the time period of abundance is coming to an end.

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One_Dragonfruit_7556@reddit

I feel like we're in that scene from the Titanic where the band is calmly playing as the ship goes down

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JetFuel12@reddit

Yeah except half the band are angrily insisting that the ship is fine and stopping people from getting into the lifeboats.

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dazzlingshining@reddit

Do we really have lifeboats? 🤷🏼‍♀️

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Frubbs@reddit

The only lifeboat is Christ

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Fox_Kurama@reddit

Aliens might. But if they are aware of the situation, they are wisely not giving humans any.

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aboxofkittens@reddit

In my humble opinion, climate change is the Great Filter. The aliens probably were/are/will be in the same boat as we are now

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Frubbs@reddit

The only lifeboat is Christ

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VanillaHuel@reddit

And we are Mr. Andrews, the ship's designer, walking through the flippant doomed crowds staring in astonishment/horror ...

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Effective-Ebb-2805@reddit

"Period of abundance"... for some. Most live outside the American bubble.

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InitiatePenguin@reddit

the time period of abundance

I'd call it the time of artificial scarcity of you ask me.

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03263@reddit

Well it won't be artificial anymore

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a_valente_ufo@reddit

I live in Rio de Janeiro. Way hotter and drier than usual for April. The last time this happened we had an unprecedented drought that lasted 2 years

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lavapig_love@reddit

It doesn't matter if you believe in climate change. Climate change believes in you, and it believes it can kill you.

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a_valente_ufo@reddit

It doesn't believe it will kill you. It is CERTAIN that it will kill you.

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Same_Bug5069@reddit

The Marianas just got slammed by super typhoon Sinlaku outside the typical typhoon season....

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nokplz@reddit

Georgia is on fire, the pnw has had no rain, the northeast got snow the day after it was 80...ya, baby its here lol nothing to do now but hope supplies last

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Variable_North@reddit

Pnw has record low snowpack levels. There is nearly 0 snowpack. It is going to get dry and hot this summer.

The trees are going to hate this.

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edwigenightcups@reddit

I'm in Vancouver, BC. You know, PNW temperate rainforest shit. But we going straight to stage 2 water restrictions (no watering lawns, and limited shrub and garden watering) on May 1

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FitArtist5472@reddit

lol the PNW is getting plenty of people rain. We are one of the few places left starting to accelerate. The recent heat dome missed us, then the crazy blizzards before that also missed. We have if anything been more wet then normal because of no snow.

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nokplz@reddit

More wet than what normal? Im in the heart of the Willamette valley and we had a GHASTLY amount of sun this winter. The only parts of Oregon getting rain are the parts that arent supposed to be getting rain. The other 60% of the state is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, with SEO experiencing severe drought conditions.

Source: they publish this every two weeks

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FitArtist5472@reddit

Oregon is the wannabe PNW. Portland maybe. The west of Washington really isn’t bothered much. Even the Olympic mountains literally glacier Mountains are still holding.

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bathandredwine@reddit

What are you talking about? Oregon is thoroughly PNW.

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FitArtist5472@reddit

Weather wise it is not the same climate. You cannot say the weather in the middle of Oregon, and the weather in Washington state are consistent. Because they are not.

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Slumunistmanifisto@reddit

Yeah but the snow pack gets us through the dry season and the Cascades are unnervingly bare

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TroyMcCluresGoldfish@reddit

Florida us on fire too. It's been quite the experience here dealing with it.

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ContessaChaos@reddit

Might as well be walking on the sun.

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daviddjg0033@reddit

That is just the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Sinlaku_(2026) This el Nino cycle was already going to be rough if a mild one with ocean temps at 21C

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springcypripedium@reddit

This is an excellent article----thanks for posting. One of the best I've read that explains the impact of human induced warming on earth's systems ---including El Niño.

This presents a clear example of how dire situation is that we are in----even if you could remove CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, how the hell do you fix completely broken climate cycles? The broken jet stream? The AMOC? Humans can't magically create biodiversity which we need to survive.

I truly don't understand how anyone still thinks we can survive this.

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haroldthehampster@reddit

what does this mean for sea surface temperatures in the gulf? anything?

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Slumunistmanifisto@reddit

Washington State here....the mountains have no snow pack.

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prabal34@reddit

Not much in CA/NV mountain range either.

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acatinasweater@reddit

Scary low in Colorado too.

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JasonKLA@reddit

Same with Utah valley. I remember when I was a kid the mountains had snow year-round…

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Unlikely-Program-827@reddit

Stuff like this makes me wish I killed myself a while ago lmao

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HassanAchievedIt@reddit

You've progressed this far in a video game, don't delete the save game and see the ending at least.

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Thestartofending@reddit

I get your point but in video games your chance of getting cancer and dementia to name a few don't increase the more you progress in the game.

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switchsk8r@reddit

if anything might as well see where this all goes and stay with us a while

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Solo_Camping_Girl@reddit

we're already getting steamed and roasted over here in Southeast Asia, and that thing isn't even getting started. one area in the capital city in my country already has shortages in water supply, I can't imagine how bad this would get. all I'm hoping for is when the typhoons come, most of the rains to drop on our dams.

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Bunny_Boy_Auditor@reddit

Isn't april/mayonnaise the hottest time of the year over there?

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joey-thegirl@reddit

Mayonnaise is my favorite month

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Solo_Camping_Girl@reddit

yup, it is! weather forecasters are claiming May will be even worse.

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Empty-Equipment9273@reddit

I think in Thailand a few days ago the heat index meaning feels like temperature with humidity got to 58c at 2-3pm in the afternoon yikes 😬

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VanillaHuel@reddit

I know from raising Bettas (pla kat) that the water stays 80°F year round (and the fish can't handle above 85°F.) I wonder how much warmer it will get now, or is already? 😮🤔😥

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Solo_Camping_Girl@reddit

TIL fish can handle only that high of a temp. I love those Betta fish, I grew up having those in our aquarium. All I'm assuming is, it will get hotter. As I'm typing this comment, it's 36 Celsius upstairs and 29 Celsius downstairs, so I'm sitting on the floor and damp towels are draped along the windows to act as air coolers.

All I know is, it will definitely get worse, but I'll be doing what I can to survive.

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Solo_Camping_Girl@reddit

We're not far behind. 58 Celsius in humid heat is just asking for disaster. I've experienced dry heat before and it's easier to deal with compared to humid heat, TBH.

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Empty-Equipment9273@reddit

A hotter world will be more wet and humid so this will only become worse and more regular

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Sol_Infra@reddit

Where I live we are getting temperatures steadily 5°C over monthly average. This summer is going to be brutal.

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jeremiah256@reddit

This year, between El Niño and the war, has the potential to be absolutely devastating. Start buying that extra can of soup or toiletries to stockpile as you’re able. Scarcity may be the defining feature of the next few years.

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INTJinLA@reddit

Check this out; I redid an interesting chart from the Collapse subreddit about this very thing.

based on this exact scenario. [

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escfantasy@reddit

What are you using to defend your soup and toiletries?

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broccolimemes@reddit

Buy backpacking supplies. Wait it out from the hills. Come down to scavenge. That's my retirement plan.

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Nicksolarfall@reddit

Absolutely same here. Bonus point, I ended up getting really into backpacking and long distance hiking lol.

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escfantasy@reddit

I’m going to book an AirBnB just before things go south.

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Pardot42@reddit

I love the idea of Joe Schmo with 27 high powered rifles and only two hands to hold them. You can be as prepped as possible, but if the land is crawling with desperate roving groups of humans that want to burn your house down, your house is burning down. Grow your community, not just your arsenal.

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ToiIetGhost@reddit

Jeremiah suggested stocking up on one extra can here and there - clearly his short comment wasn’t meant to be a comprehensive guide to prepping/networking/organisation - but you guys were dying to spank him for not mentioning community and weapons lol

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SubstituteCS@reddit

And then you’ll have enough hands for your 27 high powered rifles to help against external groups.

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escfantasy@reddit

💯

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Agreeablepeeable@reddit

My garlic farts are a biological weapon of mass destruction

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retrosenescent@reddit

The irony is both plastic (oil) and aluminum are in a crisis, which is exactly what cans are made of.

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Dizzy_Pop@reddit

Scarcity may be the defining feature of the next few years

Too optimistic.

Scarcity will be the defining feature of the rest of our days.

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StarlightLifter@reddit

Way ahead of you

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BEERsandBURGERs@reddit

So, the cynic in me should take note and plan bets on Kalshi and other Faites-vos-jeux gambling sites, against Californian food production around winter time. And bet on destruction of property in most flood-prone areas in CA. Atmospheric rivers for the win.../s

Let's keep an eye on the NOAA ENSO Climate prediction updates and trade wind patterns.

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ansibleloop@reddit

Well you'll be making money off of climate change deniers, so is there a downside?

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disasterbot@reddit

It's hard to eat crypto

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chefkoolaid@reddit

Wrong. Crypto happens in computers. What are computers made of? Chips.

Just eat the chips. Maybe grab some dip!

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walla-bing-bang@reddit

Tell us more.

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walla-bing-bang@reddit

Sooo all in on Clean Water ETFs .... ? 👀

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GoingGray62@reddit

Peter Carter made a graph.

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Ghostwoods@reddit

And that's over a 1880-1920 baseline. Gotta keep shuffling that base date later and later.

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aubreypizza@reddit

Hockey stick intensifies

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jalans@reddit

How about that snow pack in the Rockies?

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Burial@reddit

In Calgary we've gotten like three dumps of almost a foot of snow just in April, only for it all to melt two days later.

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Confident_Dark_1324@reddit

Luckily we it just got some snow and there’s more forecast. It’s not enough to end the drought but it’s something

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deadblood0@reddit

What snow pack? /j

A woman I met from Colorado last month said she and her family had gotten snow twice this year, and what they got was light. Water is going to be an issue this year.

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