When and how will energy crisis hit America?
Posted by Deep-Measurement2013@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 40 comments
I don’t really seeing anybody talking about the tidal wave incoming— I have seen work from home, energy-reduction efforts, etc. taking place in many places abroad: My question is, when will it hit the USA and what is likely to happen here? Will the USA even feel anything other than inflation and unrest? The obvious market Manipulation going on is worrisome and makes me think this will be more disastrous than it would have already been. Any insight would be appreciated.
jadelink88@reddit
Some details depend on being a president watcher, but presuming things blunder along much as they have been.
No, there will be fuel, it will just cost you more, as you'll have to effectively 'bid the price up' until a motorcycle driver in Kenya, and a Taxi in Delhi are put off the road as they cant afford the fuel. In the US, expect $5 a gallon, then higher if the straight doesn't flow for another couple of months (very likely). Just remember that a lot of the world pays more than twice that now, and life still continues.
It's possible you could have fuel rationing to try to be fair, but almost certainly the answer will be to 'ration it all with money'. That is, to let prices go up, and watch as people cant afford things.
If the shortage of 'blue' fertiliser goes on, as seems likely, expect food price hikes next year. A doubling in the cost of grain is a pinch for an American, but will mean starvation in several parts of the world. Expect longer queues at food banks and more of them running out.
Inflation begins to really hit, as the oil price is frictional, boosting the cost of making and moving nearly anything. With it comes the shock of rising unemployment, as people cant afford those good and services, the layoffs start.
Full stagflation recession. My father was sighing and reminiscing about the oil shocks of the 1970's, but this time we have taken about twice the % of the worlds oil supply out. When it finally gets back, the Iranian government is likely to have set up a permanent 'toll booth' across the straight of Hormuz, meaning the prices slump, but not back to where they were.
It's not Armageddon (unless you're a poor Bangladeshi farmer, or the like), but it's hard times ahead. Possibly great depression #2 times ahead, if this is handled with all the grace and delicacy we have come to expect from the current US administration.
Expect the fuel price rises in coming weeks, steadily continuing. The general costs start rising in weeks to months after that (as things cost more to move, and inventories are used up). The food price spike won't really hit until next harvest, + transport times, which means around 4-8 months, though you will get some degree of rising before then as people buy up in advance.
Expect a ton of screaming and reaction from MAGA voters realising that they were used as expendable fools, who were used as pawns by evil billionaires, and then try to double down on finding someone else to blame for this.
Try not to be job hunting in the next year or so, and while you don't want to make any unnecessary purchases, if there is something you really have to buy, you can try to get it before the price hikes (an electric bicycle in my case.)
Overall-Bluejay-5581@reddit
I just bought a portable solar generator for $634 on Amazon bc I’m scared within a month or two, the price for shipping it or the overall product itself will double in price.
Hour-Stable2050@reddit
Yeah, they always say fuel and food will go up in price. Nobody talks about how it’s because the rich nations will outbid the poor ones for scarce food and fuel and what that will mean for them.
whereismysideoffun@reddit
It's 5 times rhe amount of crude oil pulled out this go around. The 1970s let to people waiting in lines for hours and hours to get fuel. They could barely afford it, but the gas station would run out and they would have to go to another station after already having waited in line. There are billions more people relying on fuel for transportation and farming now, so if the Strait reopens to prior levels there is still going to be a massive lag in supply that will take months to sort out.
Without a full reopen if the 130 ships per day passing and doing do every day, it is feasible to see $10 or more for gas. Potentially more for diesel. This will dramatically effect the food supply and transportation.
You talked about the effects on farming and adding to that. There are already farmers in the US who aren't planting this year because it's clear that they will only lose money. Same for farmers in SE Asia who are already hit by the fuel shortages since the speed of shipping to there is slower. This will be a global issue. I am growing a lot more than I normally do in response.
jadelink88@reddit
The reason you're likely to find it less 'disruptive' if you have the wealth to bear it out is the distribution of that growth since the 1970s. At that time countries like India and China were tiny consumers of oil, not giants with oil based economies. So when a contraction happened, they could take virtually none of the cuts (china wasn't even internationally trading in 73).
Let alone really poor countries like Bangladesh, that are already feeling the pinch. They will absorb relatively larger portions of that cut compared to 73, and 79, relatively vast ones. Even with a 6 month blockage, a western consumer may not even feel the disruption of 73, just a sharper price hike, needed in order to drive someone in rural Pakistan not to drive the old rattletrap to market.
Likewise with the food. The US drought being a compounding issue here (speculation on fert prices when you may not get the rainfall for a crop is way more risky). A doubling or tripling of grain price that means starvation in Bangladesh means a 5% cost of living rise in Australia.
whereismysideoffun@reddit
What tax bracket are you in that you think it's easy for folks to absorb? I live in the US and know plenty of people who are already hurting with the current $1-2 rise in gas prices. Add another $1-5 and they will not be able to pay all of their bills ongoing. My dad is disabled and putting out a massive garden, literally most of his yard planning for not being able to afford food because he can't afford things now. You seem out of tough with poor people who make up most of this country.
jadelink88@reddit
I am too poor to pay tax, and thus, have no car. I am too poor to own a house, I live in a shipping container I'm converting myself. Once you stop living a consumer life, and live like people in the rest of the world, it seems different.
That's how you manage it, like the 3rd world middle class that you've become. Time to sell the car, get an electric bike.
Easy is a comparative term, you're not going to like a fall back to an early 20th century standard of living, but you can live, and 'comfortably' if you have a bit of luck and are smart about the transition. The MASSIVE wealth of anyone who can afford a car means you have a long way to fall, globally speaking. Most of the world would be thrilled to have our problems.
whereismysideoffun@reddit
Your last sentence really ignores how most others need to live. For most people, a vehicle is completely crucial to just get by. Owning a vehicle doesn't mean massive wealth when it could mean a used car or barely making monthy payments. It's not feasible for most families to use public transit as it functions now. A vehicle is required to travel far enough in the city to get a job and to be able to get there in a timely enough fashion. That along with all other transportation needs. If you live in a rural area, there is nearly no chance at all of having a job if you do not have a vehicle.
jadelink88@reddit
You get to stop with car gig. Our ancestors managed, modern poor people manage in most of the world, it's just not as convenient or easy. I grew up in a rural area, yes you CAN manage without this shit, it's just hard.
A ton of people are just going to get a crash course in 'learn to live like a rural Mexican', and most will fail it because they are stuck in a first world consumerist rut that they cannot see out of.
You're the one who is out of touch, with that reality. The party is over for the bottom half to three quarters of people in developed countries.
boneyfingers@reddit
I think you're right, or at least on the right track. But you are discussing this with someone who is struggling with the wrong question. It's hard to reason with people who insist that degrowth is optional. It could have been done rationally, intentionally and compassionately, with careful accommodation for the needs expressed above, but that ship sailed decades ago. Now it's going to happen the hard way: unevenly, violently, and without any plan to mitigate the pain. The choice is not whether or not to keep driving; the choice is what will you do when you can't anymore.
So, some people are choosing to learn how to plug along in the "after," by narrowing their concept of "needs," and simplifying how those will be met. And others are grasping at ways to keep on living in a house on fire. And it's hard for those two different mindsets to have useful conversation.
whereismysideoffun@reddit
No, I know that degrowth was possible.
It is simultaneously true that people today cannot simply make light adjustments and be fine with higher fuel prices. I am acknowledging the lack of infrastructure for living with less petrol and have empathy for the people around the world including the US who will be hit the most.
Prices are going to skyrocket in absolutely everything. Having holed up and reducing transport needs doesn't fix still needing to eat and having energy needs.
The person you and I responded to is not acknowledging that for a majority of people eating and having a home is tied to petrol. Doesn't matter if you are in the US or in Saigon on a motorcycle or a rural farmer. Unless you are on Senagalese Island or are some uncontested tribe in the Amazon, this will heavily effect you.
It ridiculous to think one is more immune in the US. Prices have already gone up amd they will continue to. People will struggle. People could literally lose their homes because they can't afford gas.. in the US. People will go hungry because they can't afford food. People go hungry now.
I understand and live regrowth. I have been focused with internse resolve for 20 years on learning and utilizing skills for a life with no petroleum and no supply chain. At this point, I can provide all of my food for myself and a small group of people. I will have to do more work by hand if shit fully goes down, but am raising oxen calves to transfer to using oxen.
Many things can be true at the same time. I have actively implemented regrowth and take personal responsibility for my food. I also acknowledge that life is a struggle and most people are going to be wrecked by this. Vehicles are crucial to modern existence. That modern existence is also utterly unsustainable and is destroying the planet. The rich did not allow for the building of any off ramps and I have empathy for others whose lives will be hell due to the policies that propped up continued consumption.
This sub doesn't understand empathy.
itwasallascream23@reddit
So what you're saying is the whole.world will suffer because people in the US are complacent and don't participate in democracy?
jadelink88@reddit
In a polite way, yes, that is the consequence of handing a superpowers worth of power over to grifting populist. Sadly, it was the wake up that a lot of the world had to have, both in terms of US policy, and in terms of needing to get it together with a post fossil fuel economy.
Hard knocks is not the school you want your world to have to learn from, but it seems the only thing that gets listened to, sadly.
boneyfingers@reddit
It's odd: I agreed immediately to what you wrote elsewhere, only to disagree with what you say here. The current insanity driving the conduct of supe powers today is not the cause of collapse, it is the instrument. Degrowth in incompatible with democracy, full stop. No free people will ever have the will, determination and foresight: individuals, maybe, but certainly not any state. No majority will choose to be poor. We as a species were too stupid to follow wisdom, so now we'll just leave it in the hands of mad men.
I guess I'm saying it was always going to be too painful a choice to be taken intentionally, so we ignored that the pain was coming one way or another. The ship has already hit the iceberg. Politics today resolves to the question: which set of idiots gets to man the bridge of a sinking ship? Even the most progressive among the liberals still cling to the illusion that we could sail on if only we worked together. At least with a captain we know is insane, smart people can decide it's time to learn to swim.
jadelink88@reddit
We could have cruised down the decline in a different manner. Yes, the neoliberalism as usual route lead to crisis, but in a longer term, and not in this manner.
We are in some ways fortunate that we got a somewhat violent lesson in the fragility of the fossil fuel supply, but we didn't have to learn it this way, we could simply accept the reality of geology as it is, (along with global warming as it is) and moved from there.
Degrowth is by no means incompatible with democracy. Think about the democratic contraction of the civilian economies in WW2 if you want an example of people willingly voting for their own impoverishment for a larger goal. Yes, that vote wont happen any time soon anywhere. What degrowth is incompatible with is capitalism, and an interest and growth based economy.
Neither is essential for democracy.
The latter point, yes, is the silver lining in this mess. When the worlds fossil fuel supply is put in jeopardy, lots of people realise it's a good time to learn to make do without it. Which is why I hope the crisis as is doesn't end too soon, or people will return to 'business as usual'.
Having some pain now is likely what is needed to get people to question and come to some better conclusions. You don't technically need it, but for the chronically stupid, or complacent, it's a real motivator.
I suspect the powers that be are going to have to overload the information space with extreme doomerism, nutty conspiracy populism or the idea that a quick return to normal is coming soon. It will be interesting to see how things react.
I shall be in hospital for a week, but entirely healthy, so I shall have time to try and write something here, and perhaps send it to a couple of other places as well.
Lord_Vesuvius2020@reddit
I’m assuming that since so much shipping in the US depends on trucking which in turn depends on diesel that a lot of consumer goods and groceries will cost more in the US as a result of high diesel prices. So inflation will increase.
jadelink88@reddit
I would imagine so. Even in places dependent on rail or sea shipping, the diesel factor is likely to play in. The food pressures also put a lot of pressure on wages in poor countries, meaning rising prices of cheap imports too.
Parking_Sky9709@reddit
Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen until second half of 2026, Baker Hughes says
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/strait-hormuz-baker-hughes-iran-war-oil-lng.html
"A Dallas Fed Energy survey of oil and gas executive found nearly 80% believe the strait will not reopen until August or later."
ObligationOne2600@reddit
Good answer, any take about the impact it will have on the rest of the world( Europe, Latin America, etc)?
jadelink88@reddit
Much depends on how dependent local agriculture is on fossil fuel inputs, and how wealthy the locality is. The places that are still using minor inputs of fertiliser and non mechanised will take it fairly well. Those that are heavily mechanised and dependend on fertiliser inputs are going to suffer a lot, especially in poorer areas.
I expect Australian farmers (highly dependent on both) to manage, by using a bit less, and outbidding farmers in places like Sri Lanka (less mechanised, but stupidly fertiliser dependent), causing localised famine in the latter.
Urban areas with good electrified PT will find it was a wise investment. A lot of European urbanites will cope better than the US for reason of lower car dependency, along with welfare nets when the sharp rise in unemployment happens.
I'd expect a rise in knee jerk populism everywhere, as a political response. Along with 'solutions' that are often long term counterproductive.
Jumpy-Silver5504@reddit
Already has as we have an super old grid system that hasn't been updated in 70+ years
Knew_saga@reddit
Not soon enough. I hate to say that we need it to kick the orange cunt out.
itwasallascream23@reddit
He'll be replaced by another one
East-Tooth-4008@reddit
A food crisis is coming for the US.
Farmers cutting back on fertilizer application due to cost = less food.
Diesel prices skyrocketing = more expensive farm input costs and transport costs = you will pay a lot more.
Diesel prices are THE THING people should be paying attention to.
WakingOwl1@reddit
I’m in a part of New England where there’s a lot of farming and overheard a relevant conversation today. Two of my customers - one a farmer - the other a CSA member - were discussing this year’s expectations. He told her to expect less because his cost for fertilizer had gone up 20%. He’s planting less acreage.
Big_Goose_730@reddit
Not American but the present energy crisis in our country is an injury inflicted by your president. Thanks for nothing y'all
NyriasNeo@reddit
Energy prices (crude and natural gas) are down a little today except brent crude. My take is that there is no cliff to drop off. There is no when. It will be a slow rise. More like a frog in water slowly being boiled.
Why? Because of the mid-term. Because of TACO. Notice that the cease fire is extended indefinitely. I bet there is behind the scenes negotiation that is trying to open hormus, because that is money for everyone if the strait is open. If you look at the stock market, the expectation is that, and that is why it is up so much. And if trump cares anything besides himself, it is the market.
Furthermore, we (the US) has more than enough oil. We export oil. And we have strategic reserve. Granted shale may be a little more expensive to pump, but still not economy killing expensive. So what will happen is that we will pump more. Trump will release oil from the strategic reserve if prices looks really bad, particularly close to the mid-term. And that is going to smooth out the crisis. In the long run, may be that is not enough, but even if it is not enough, it will delay and make the ramp up of any crisis slow and gradual.
Vegetable_Ferret8984@reddit
I thought the strategic reserve has already been used…we are getting to the end
NyriasNeo@reddit
You are wrong. https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html
The current level is 405M barrels. We produce about 14M barrels a day:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_extraction
US consumes roughly 20M barrels a day (from google). So need another 6M barrels to make it up. 405M can last us 67.5 days. But the strategic reserve is often only use to stabilize prices.
The real situation is a bit more complex since there is a mismatch of the kind of oil we use (so we import some and export some) but these are the general numbers.
Neumanium@reddit
The mismatch is worse then just kinda. A majority of the refineries in the United States cannot refine the oil that comes out of the ground in the United States. The US produces ~13 million barrels a day, exports ~8 million barrels and then imports about ~10 million in Oil and other petroleum products. Our refineries are out of balance because it is more profitable to not upgrade and convert to locally pumped oil. They will not convert because by law would be required during conversion to upgrade their pollution controls as well. It is cheaper for them to pollute and pay grandfathered fines for that pollution then upgrade their equipment. We will see a massive gas, diesel price hikes which the oil companies love because they are mostly vertical conglomerates and this will just increase their profits.
bizh_gki@reddit
Ignoring climate change and energy use increases, I understand the USA has about a hundred years worth of coal in the ground. I’m not sure about the short term at all regarding the Hormuz blockade, but I expect a lot of the focus on coal has been with the intention of the USA switching over to it as the primary source. I don’t know what industry insights would have about what actions have been done to make that happen and so maybe I’m off, but oil that’s cheap enough to drill is running low enough and coal is a viable alternate fossil fuel. To be clear, I am not an advocate for carbon pollution. Climate change is real and preserving our ecosystem is the correct priority.
uhbkodazbg@reddit
Natural gas prices in the US are still ridiculously low.
jadelink88@reddit
The usual problem of 'well when you're thirsty' applies here.
You want to run that car on coal? Not happening.
You need to build a giant Fischer-troph plant, and run that. After 6 months, a need for one becomes apparent, but it would take 3+ years to build. If you think this is all over in 2 years, you spent several billion for something that makes Oil that is non viable at less than $150 a barrel.
In other words, it isn't going to happen. OK, I forgot which timeline I'm in. It isn't going to happen IF you're lucky. If you're not, a Trump insider gets given a few tens of billions to build one,that takes 10 years to arrive, and that gets abandoned when built because oil is down to $120 again, but public purse successfully looted.
bizh_gki@reddit
My bachelors is in Econ and I work in benefits admin. Just an fyi with those details as I don’t mean to pretend to know anything really about energy production or anything really beyond reading up on what are basically cliff’s notes to the cliff’s notes.
My big idea there is that the transition for cars would be for electric and not for liquid fuel production. With that skum e guy and his connections to have an in to help make the transition to electric cars. Just some pie in the sky ideas from me.
What I think is happening is global regime change. USA takes the Americas, Russia takes Europe, China takes the East. World War. Definitely more than a minor conflict of a few years or so is what I’m expecting.
Don’t mean to be too catastrophic in my thinking, but I do expect Drumpf was being honest when he said conservatives would never have to vote again. He seems to be honest when bragging about his schemes. So that’s why I think he’s been trying to get rid of solar and wind power with a switch to coal.
Again, only an armchair observer over here watching things play out and wondering along the way.
jadelink88@reddit
You COULD start building coal power plants to fuel a nation of electric cars. The issue is that most working Americans are not in the position to buy a tesla, so you aren't going to have that demand. You could let in cheap (and better built) Chinese imports, but not while Musk has political clout and China is on the designated bad guy list.
If you did that, you would be better off financially to just go solar instead, particularly given the speed at which you can roll it out. More Chinese imports needed, because US governments have squashed it in order to favour fossil fuels.
It's possible you'll see it as a part of an economically inefficient attempt at fuel nationalism that utterly destroys the US economy, but the only reason for it is mad insider rorting.
eco-overshoot@reddit
Here was a good piece on it: https://open.substack.com/pub/thehonestsorcerer/p/the-myth-of-american-energy-independence?r=3l7oot&utm_medium=ios
Basically expecting things to get real end of July.
-sussy-wussy-@reddit
Is the wfh in the same room with us? I'm in the EU, and the companies completely refuse to let you wfh. If anything, they continue the frog boiling tactics with turning hybrid into more days in office and into full-time RTO.
Lailokos@reddit
Prices are good and will hit (and already are). If you're worried about beyond inflation, expect shortages to start in peripherals rather than energy itself for the US. So HDs/Computer components sure (thanks to helium and the fact fabs don't keep tons of finished chips in inventory), but also plastics and fabrics are going to get low fast. Packaging materials alone can cause shortages even if there's plenty of other inputs. US doesn't make almost any of its own basic level materials, we import them, but everything advanced needs chips/plastic wafers/etc. Plane flights are already effected though and will get worse. So will cruises. Those actually WILL have fuel shortages and are already starting. Beyond that it's going to be a slow trickle for the US for months - but if we have months more? At that point who knows.
SadExercises420@reddit
I saw a headline today that trump is not in a hurry to sign a peace deal. Like no shit, he’s not in a hurry at all, the rest of the world is.
At the rate this is going and the amount of power we have handed Iran, I’m not seenf an end in sight right now.
Like honestly when this all started I really never thought trump would fuck it up this badly, but here we are
IKillZombies4Cash@reddit
There will only be rising prices in the US, not a full blown 70's OPEC shortage.
But the price is probably going to go up since the contract price of crude is manipulated downward, but the physical cost of a barrel is like 40-50% higher than contract future prices...the piper will need to be paid.