Ukraine gets U$106B loan package from EU after Hungary changes vote
Posted by Moikanyoloko@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 179 comments
Posted by Moikanyoloko@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 179 comments
Moikanyoloko@reddit (OP)
I'm mildly curious what is the post-war plan for Ukraine even if they manage to find a positive resolution for the war, it seems like no matter what happens, the country's fucked, this loan alone is 50% of yearly GDP and the country had already surpassed a 100% debt-to-GDP ratio beforehand.
Sidenote, automod threatened to block this article because the headline originally mentioned the loan as "US$" instead of "U$" (since its a Canadian source), the restriction is mildly annoying since any mention of the US in the title triggers it.
WhoAmIEven2@reddit
They'll be fine. The UK paid their loan off to the US for like 80 years until they were paid off.
AlbertoRossonero@reddit
The UK had a much more robust economy than Ukraine ever has. They can’t even count on their raw materials being an asset as the USA has already made a deal for them. Ukraine will likely never pay back that money and will on top of that require more from its European partners in order to rebuild.
IlluminatedPickle@reddit
The UK economy was fucked after WW2, what are you talking about?
For example, rationing stopped in 1954.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
The British Empire was so fucked because it had large swaths of its land occupied by the Nazis?
name20948234@reddit
Which parts were occupied by the nazis?
IlluminatedPickle@reddit
Well, the channel islands.
Magjee@reddit
Not exactly large swaths
IlluminatedPickle@reddit
That's the joke.
Magjee@reddit
<3
akashi10@reddit
british empire was fucked cuz it took insurmountable amounts of loans, all its money making operations recently got freedom and no money was coming in. then pound lost its reserves currency standard and suddenly no one was giving them loans as well. its a miracle england was able to survive at all.
historicusXIII@reddit
The UK was lucky that some Commonwealth states continued to use the pound as a reserve currency to some degree.
SquisherX@reddit
Honestly? They should just tell the US to pound sand after, seeing as Trump just cancels any treaties or agreements whenever he sees fit, other countries should just do the same to them.
Practical-Pea-1205@reddit
While the Ukrainian economy has never been great they will survive if Russia stops trying to destroy them.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
The only reason the Ukrainian economy hasn’t defaulted several times over are massive bailouts from the EU.
You know, exactly the kind we are commenting below.
Hungover994@reddit
It’s a massive country with huge agricultural capacity. It has ability to generate true value unlike the western economies which generate value by basically gaming stock markets and selling bullshit financial products
Small-Policy-3859@reddit
Capitalism needs to collapse before being resource-rich automatically means rich country.
NetworkLlama@reddit
The next president will likely scrap the raw materials deal. It was an executive deal, not a treaty, so it's just the stroke of a pen to nix it.
Magjee@reddit
On the flip side Iraq invaded Kuwait over post war debts
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
That was Saddam Hussein. If that’s your benchmark for how states behave, you’re assuming a world that's far more deranged than we actually live in.
Turgius_Lupus@reddit
That was Saddam after getting a free pass to do it from George H.W. Bush, which was later reneged on. And, who was provided with chemical weapon precursors by western EU countries and the U.S. while Bush was Head of the CIA and later VP to murder Iranians, hence the reason for the debt.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
Or they are simply aware how up to that point Saddam was actually considered “our guy” (Iran Iraq war) and when he declared his intentions on Kuwait the US DoS declared it had no opinion on such Arab -Arab matters.
Which Saddam understood as a go-ahead from his American sponsors.
Because that’s exactly the kind of deranged geopolitics we’ve had for many decades.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Yeah, still I don't see Ukraine getting invaded by the countries that are currently granting aid.
gobiSamosa@reddit
They are saying that dictators like Zelenskyy can invade countries giving them loans.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Super credible indeed! /s
Magjee@reddit
50 years ago Iraq had the highest quality of living in the middle east
Then after 8 years of fighting a war on behalf of the west and the Sunni world Iraq was heavily indebted and diminished
After being rebuked by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for some leniency on loans
...and after the Kuwait Minister joked he would turn Iraqi women into $10 prostitutes
...and Kuwait started drilling oil on Iraq's border, (NEXT PART IS STILL UNPROVEN) draining Iraqi reserves
He talked with the US ambassador and was told directly the US would not intervene
They baited him into attacking
Then after a decade of fear mongering 9/11 gave the excuse for an invasion to capture Iraq's oil wealth
Yep, that's America for you
BrotherEstapol@reddit
*gestures at Trump*
TBF, one would hope he's the benchmark that the US doesn't get near again...
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Trump still has to deal with free press, political opposition and upcoming elections.
If that was not the case, we'd have boots on the ground in Iran already.
Maardten@reddit
I mean, does he really? I can’t remember the last time someone asked Trump a hard question.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
It means that the media can publish anything about him, regardless of how damning. They can criticize, accuse, inform readers about his mistakes. If he does something foolish, the news will mention it.
That's like night and day compared to an actual dictatorship. Je weet zelluf!
Maardten@reddit
I remember a couple of prominent media figures getting the sack for criticising Trump.
They even bought the American division of Tiktok with the express purpose of controlling the narrative, something they were already able to do on other platforms.
Republicans do not have total control of the media yet but they are working on it and are making solid progress.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
They're trying, obv. But which prominent media figure is currently sacked?
And how do they control the narrative on TikTok, when anyone can talk shit about the government there still?
Maardten@reddit
Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel come to mind. I know Kimmel got reinstated afterwards but that was only after big public backlash.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Yeah so neither of them is sacked. And even if they were, they can still say and make whatever they want.
It's night and day compared to a state without freedom of the press.
Maardten@reddit
Its night and day compared to a state without freedom of press, but its also night and day compared to a state with freedom of press.
American media is largely captured by corporate interests.
And yes, Stephen Colbert absolutely did get fired.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
And which magical place might that be, where the media is free of corporate interests?
Maardten@reddit
I never said such a place exists, but the US currently ranks below Liberia and 55 other countries in press freedom, so there is plenty of room for improvement.
What are you even arguing against? Are you just being purposefully obtuse?
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
I am arguing against the notion that Trump is on par with Sadam Hussein in terms of press suppression.
Maardten@reddit
Well argue with someone else then because I never made that argument.
Asjutton@reddit
I mean it's not binary. Trump has to deal with some of that, but far less than would be optimal.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Media can still 100% say anything about Trump that they please. And that is 100% different from a country without free press.
Asjutton@reddit
Yes they can, but they can't investigate him or get him to answer to questions himself which would be more enlightening for the public. Which is a huge part of journalism. It is not "100% different" such simplifications are not helpful to anyone. And only help to bring down democracy one step at a time.
Fuck off.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
“This war is exactly like WW2 and Ukraine is basically the British Commonwealth!”
MasterDefibrillator@reddit
Does the UK look fine to you?
iVladi@reddit
Permanent funding to keep a large standing army so eu doesn't need to do it
historicusXIII@reddit
Yeah, that won't happen.
HzPips@reddit
If Europeans are smart they will finance Ukraine’s reconstruction and consolidate it into their sphere of influence. Even if they don’t end up in the EU, having a failed state right at their border wouldn’t be wise.
AlbertoRossonero@reddit
Consolidate what exactly? The USA made a deal for their mineral resources,they have been buying up Ukrainian farmland, and have the first refusal to buy critical Ukrainian infrastructure if it’s ever for sale. On top of that Russia is in possession of very valuable land as well.
Asjutton@reddit
"a deal" haha
AlbertoRossonero@reddit
Have fun reneging on it even if we do see a change in the Oval Office to the democrats. It’s a deal that will potentially make major lobbying groups in the US government a lot of money.
BurialA12@reddit
The level of derangement to think the democrat will give up free colbalt and lithium because it was Trump that signed it
Asjutton@reddit
The level of derangement to believe what Trump says.
Asjutton@reddit
You have no idea about what the agreements actually say. Which is obvious when you call them "a deal". If you believe what Donald Trump says you will have a fun time renaging on old assumptions.
Slimmanoman@reddit
That deal isn't worth anything
Lopsided-Selection85@reddit
Even with the change of administration the US will never go against the interests of their companies...
Chipay@reddit
You've been a victim of Russian disinformation, Ukrainian land cannot be sold to foreign nationals by law. The 2024 amendment specifies Ukrainian citizens only.
AlbertoRossonero@reddit
They just get around that by using local Ukrainian companies but in essence they’re American owned. A lot of US investment firms and agricultural companies have bought a lot of Ukrainian land this way.
Chipay@reddit
Do you have a source? I can't find any reporting on this by reputable news outlets
Asjutton@reddit
They are already consolidated due to the war. Both in the public mind of most europeans, as well as through the war economy and shared security ambitions. The amount of Ukrainian refugees in other European countries also help. They are the largest refugee group in most European nations today.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
This consolidation has already been achieved by Russia. Still I do agree with the plead to help rebuild.
Stix147@reddit
Source: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/04/23/council-finalises-90-billion-support-loan-to-ukraine/
ironbutterflies@reddit
except russia isn't going to pay reparations. this "war" is going to go on for another decade. and then there won't be a war, because there won't be a ukraine.
Stix147@reddit
It will be from the frozen funds so they don't exactly have a choice. As for the second part of your statement, the only way Ukraine stop existing is if they stop fighting and allow Russia to annex their whole country. This war (no quotes needed) has been raging for the better part of 12 years now by the way.
wild_man_wizard@reddit
Look at Greece, Poland and Spain for what the EU can do for countries that didn't have much of an economy when they joined.
Lowered12@reddit
Are you sure that Greece is good example?
blinkchuck1988@reddit
Things aren't actually that bad in Greece. They've been in the midst of a massive crisis since 2010. However, the IMF loans have already been repaid—and ahead of schedule. The first euro loans have also been repaid, even though the first repayments weren't due until 2033.
TNT_GR@reddit
Maybe they aren’t that bad if you’re just a tourist but as a resident it’s hellish and I’m not even exaggerating.
ShootmansNC@reddit
"Austery isn't too bad" says people that don't have to live under austerity.
TNT_GR@reddit
This
Simple_Yam@reddit
Ukraine will be rebuilt by crippled veterans, pensioners and Bangladeshi immigrants when they will join the EU in a couple of decades and then they will become a superpower, because all you need for that is cash from the EU, which has an infinite amount of resources to give away and practically no other issues.
BurialA12@reddit
They'll basically be flooded with so much money. They can pay full pension, lower retirement age, housing surplus, attract foreign investment, automobile industry will return from china(collapsed btw)
CluelessExxpat@reddit
Can't say Greece have an economy still.
lufan132@reddit
Continue to leech money off everyone else indefinitely? Turn Russia into East Ukraine and enjoy the future liberals want? Just default their national debt and get absorbed into some other EU nation?
Plenty of options, all terrible for everyone but Ukraine, just like the war.
CitizenMurdoch@reddit
From what I've read in other articles the loan is interest free, which is considerably better than what they'd get selling bonds. in terms of the Debt to GDP calculation its essentially meaningless, its not compounding, and its a low priority loan to pay off
reddit_is_geh@reddit
I genuinely don't see how they can win the war. Every time I look at the actual data, logistics, infrastructure, etc, I don't see a viable path for Ukraine. I see tons of paths for Russia, but none for Ukraine. It's like everyone is just hoping Russia will collapse "any day now" which has been said for years.
Not only is a victory very unlikely, even IF it happened - which again, is incredibly unlikely - they've had enormous brain drain. They already faced a population problem, but now it's far far worse. They'll have to rebuild with a scarce population.
This is why I never supported this war. Not because i was pro Russia, but I saw the data, and was familiar with a conflict like this. People who just learned about Ukraine saw them get super lucky during the early invasion, falsely thought Ukraine could win a war of attrition, which just wasn't going to happen.
RGB755@reddit
The standards of winning is quite different though, same as USA vs Iran.
Iran has no goals of conquering the US mainland. Ukraine has no viable means of reconquering Crimea, let alone Russia proper. Yet as it stands, Ukraine has not been crushed in a Blitzkrieg like everyone initially thought. With massive aid and assistance, they’ve held on now for over four years, Russia has suffered over one million casualties in their special three day operation, and Russia has needed to shift completely to a war economy just to sustain the front.
So while you’re not wrong that Ukraine “can’t win” in the sense of capturing Moscow, Russia currently can’t win either, and right now it’s looking at a pyrrhic victory at best, provided both sides maintain their present level of investment in the conflict.
Awdrgyjilpnj@reddit
Russia can crush Ukraine (and all of Europe for that matter) if they chose to. There’s no reason for Zelensky to drag out war, it won’t change the outcome
polocinkyketaminky@reddit
if Russia could crush Ukraine and all of Europe then they would already did that.
Awdrgyjilpnj@reddit
Russia doesn’t want to see Europe reduced to glass
polocinkyketaminky@reddit
because if ever that will happen, Russia will be also be reduced to glass.
NetworkLlama@reddit
For Russia to do that, they would have to either formally declare war or change the law to allow conscripts to be sent to fight in Ukraine. Neither would be politically popular, because then average Russians would be sent to fight on basic pay rather than the volunteers going now after they receive huge enlistment bonuses. Many people here like to point at the Ukrainian squads that pick up draft dodgers, but Russia would be doing the same or worse.
Putin and his friends hold a lot of power, but they are a small fraction of the Russian population, and Russians remember 1917, when the populace overthrew the outnumbered aristocracy.
RGB755@reddit
lol, okay.
So why has Russia burned through a million men in Ukraine alone and they still haven’t captured any of the major cities?
Klytus_Ra_Djaaran@reddit
Unless they seize frozen Russian assets as war reperations.
Chipay@reddit
Ukraine will get invested to death by Europe, partly because it's profitable, partly because it pulls Ukrainians back to Ukraine, partly to solidify the EU's influence on the country.
If the EPP is still in charge by the time a lasting peace treaty is signed, you'll see trade deals and special deals being hammered out in record time.
Gruejay2@reddit
What does this actually mean?
Chipay@reddit
I mean death by snu snu. The EU will continue throwing money at Ukraine until their path towards ascension is inevitable. It's almost sunk cost fallacy at this point.
Gruejay2@reddit
I see what you mean, yes.
Miiirx@reddit
Ukraine is a top exporter of wheat, now they have a top expertise in cheap drone manufacturing, they are ressourcefull, they have the potential
MDAlastor@reddit
The general idea is to sell very fertile land and natural resources to Western corporations and repay the debt in the next 2 centuries or something like that.
ledankmememaster@reddit
From what I understood this loan only has to be paid back when Russia pays reparations.
King_Kvnt@reddit
In that case, it's more of a bet than a loan.
It's perfectly understandable, every Russian loss in Ukraine is good for the European project.
ledankmememaster@reddit
Yep, not sure why I’m getting downvoted (please correct me if I’m wrong). I think it’s the best approach cause it’s completely unreasonable to expect Ukraine to pay it back out of their own pockets under these circumstances, but instead let Russia pay for it indirectly.
King_Kvnt@reddit
The main arguments against it are that getting Russia to pay that loan either involves destroying the state as it currently exists, or directly stealing it from (frozen) Russian property. The latter sets huge precedents in regards to sovereign immunity as a principle and trust in international financial systems.
The reason I say it's a gamble is that If Russia wins, then the EU is going to have a very difficult time getting that money back.
ledankmememaster@reddit
Well if Russia wins that war somehow the EU still has the frozen assets as ransom. Obviously I’m biased but it’s not like Russia or its peers care much for legal issues either so that’s unfortunate for them and was completely avoidable.
In any case we can only speculate and wait for how this whole situation plays out.
IlluminatedPickle@reddit
Investors have been eyeing post-war Ukraine greedily since the Russians started this shit. They will be rebuilt, and it will be a drastically different economy compared to before the war.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Make huge profits, further isolate a geopolitical rival. Win win.
The only greater victory for investors would be doing it to the Russian Federation itself.
IlluminatedPickle@reddit
Even Twiggy is champing at the bit to get in there. He offered something like half a billion USD but he has some weird plans for a cashless society.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Can ya blame him? Plenty to be dug out of Ukrainian soil.
MasterDefibrillator@reddit
Yeah. this was the point.
King_Kvnt@reddit
Ukraine as a failed state benefits nobody really, so either it comes under the sphere of Europe or Russia. Presumably, a positive outcome would be for Ukraine to fall under the European sphere.
Syrairc@reddit
Yeah, that rule needs to change.
drgr33nthmb@reddit
Nah it doesn't. Works good most of the time.
Eexoduis@reddit
This is fantastic news. Much needed aid especially since the US hasn’t sent a penny since 2024.
The manpower crisis is still very real but Russian gains stalled in a big way this year and the Russian economic woes are deepening still. The looming corporate debt crisis only grows.
GerryAdamsSon@reddit
Russian gains stall every winter, movement stops. Then comes spring and summer, like clockwork.
Eexoduis@reddit
It’s almost May. Spring has come and is already going. Performance has been abysmal. Winter performance was worse this year than last year. Ukraine retook the most territory since 2023. Ukrainian logistics interdiction, counterattacks, and drone proliferation are having a potent effect on frontline progress.
Gerasimov just claimed the capture of Luhansk for the third time. Russia thought they’d take Kramatorsk by summer. They’ll be lucky to take it by the end of the year, if at all.
GerryAdamsSon@reddit
Ukraine hasn't retaken most of the territory occupied by Russia since 2023, there's not one map that supports that assertion so I don't think you're very educated on the topic.
Sawmain@reddit
Learn to read.
TrizzyG@reddit
Youre just not educated, period. Try reading carefully next time
NetworkLlama@reddit
That's not what they said. To mildly rephrase, Ukraine has retaken more territory this year than they have in any year since 2023.
Simple_Yam@reddit
“Russia thought they’d take Kramatorsk by summer”
If I had a penny for every made-up deadline that Ukraine and pro-ukrainians have made up for Russia, I’d be a millionaire.
My guess remains like it was last year, 2026 is a year of preparation and encirclement of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and 2027 is the year they will fall.
crusadertank@reddit
Russian advances this year are higher than last year.
Because Ukraines offensive focus in 2024 and 2025 was in Kursk. So of course switching back from offensives on Russian territory to Ukrainian territory will lead to more gains on Ukrainian territory
This is working both ways.
Ultimately Russia is advancing more than last year and at less cost. The fact that Ukraine massed 3/4 of its assault units and only managed to capture some weakly held ground and didnt cause the halting of any Russian advances doesnt pose well for Ukraine
Id love to see you source this. Oh wait I know the source, it was put out by Ukraine, not Russia
They are not going to take it by the end of the year. Probably they will be at the edge of the city but capturing the cities will likely be next year thing
imunfair@reddit
And then promptly blew up the pipeline that they used to blackmail Hungary into voting for the new "loan" (gift) package. Fell-for-it-again award goes to the EU, who once again shot themselves in the foot for a country they aren't in a defense alliance with. And they wonder why voters are kicking them out in favor of right-wing parties...
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Do you think Russia's invasion is justified? Because it would explain why you dismiss the need to help it defend itself.
imunfair@reddit
I don't care in the slightest, I merely think that the Ukrainian people are being treated like serfs by their fratboy "leader" who is either malicious or a complete idiot with no foresight and no knowledge of history.
They had like a 1% chance of victory in 2023 with the summer offensive, even if they wanted to be a gambler and take that shot, after that point it was done and the smart move was to wrap it up and give whatever concessions were necessary to make that happen. They would have been painful, but far less than it will cost them now (although given Zelensky's intransigence I doubt he'll actually try to negotiate in good faith until it's too late and Russia has broken the back of the AFU entirely - at which point they'll see no need to negotiate).
Stix147@reddit
Setting aside the simple fact that Russia's aim is to subjugate the entire country, and that they never offered any concessions that Ukraine could accept, and that nobody was willing to offer Ukraine any proper security guarantees, and that without it it would've been suicidal to sign anything as Russia tends to violate agreements as if they were written on toilet paper, what exactly is your point here? What exactly do you think Russia is "winning" with its territorial progress slower that is slower than the pace of a snail, while it is absolutely bleeding manpower and equipment, to the point that in March of this year they recorded their lowest progress for the entirety of this war. In the 5th year into this war, the fact that Ukraine can still launch localized counter attacks and Russia is still nowhere near taking the rest of the Donetsk oblast tells you everything you need to knowm
The same claim Russia has been making since summer of 2022. It seems you spend too much time reading Russian Telegram and believing Gerasimov's nonsense.
imunfair@reddit
When you're on the ropes you accept what you can get, you don't get to be picky.
Zelensky always wants the terms of the deal from two negotiations ago, once it's long off the table. Not sure if he just has no foresight or intelligence to realize that the current terms are going to look really good compared to the terms he sees in a year, or if he just does it to intentionally obstruct any potential for peace.
If you could read (or perhaps if you didn't write in bad faith) you'd know that clipping a sentence in half tends to change its meaning, and you're arguing with something that wasn't said.
Stix147@reddit
You're describing unconditional surrender, not negotiations towards a peace resolution. The fact that we are still talking about this in year 5 of this war shows that Ukraine was clearly not on the ropes.
Can you articulate how you think Russia's position, given the progress of the past few years, will strengthen by next year instead of continuing to degrade? I don't want to cite the Russian economic indicators, the recruitment stats, the equipment losses, all of which are horrible, I want to know the reasons why you think this will be the case.
imunfair@reddit
It hasn't degraded yet, their ask has gone from 2 oblasts, to 4 once they invaded, to roughly 7 now if what they said in Turkey during the last negotiations was accurate.
And to enforce that they don't need to become stronger, they just need to continue doing what they're doing - they're killing roughly 100k Ukrainian men per year, and Ukraine is at the point where they have to pull men off defensive positions on the front just to attack a single location, and haven't been able to achieve their objectives even using that last-ditch tactic. They get about 50% through and get halted, it's happened repeatedly in multiple places on the front in the last couple months.
No reserves and no ability to project force reads to me as the AFU being on their last legs, which explains why Zelensky has been begging for a long ceasefire for the better part of a year now. Plus Russia has started attacking Ukrainian trains for the past 6-12 months which is likely having a significant impact on Ukrainian logistics, in addition to being outmatched in almost every metric from drones to glide bombs. In short, unless you think Russia is going to economically collapse tomorrow, Ukraine is toast. And we've been hearing about impending economic collapse from pro-UA pundits since the start of the war, it's all bogus imo.
Stix147@reddit
It's actually the whole of the country that Russia wants, Putin was never really shy about this, his esssy where he say that Ukraine can "either exist as part of Russia or not exist at all", was published before the war, and we sau this sentiment echoed in Medvedev's statements, in the media, pretty much everywhere. And the desire for expansion doesn't just stop at Ukraine. To act as if they just want x number of oblasts is naive, especially since they seem to have completely dropped the pretext of only wanting the parts of Ukraine with a significant population of ethnic Russians.
Where do you even get a number as high as that? If reality was anywhere near that, the frontlines would've collapsed a long time ago. Does this number come from the sane sources which claimed that Ukraine also lost more aircraft than they ever had, more tanks than they ever had, etc. which is the Russian MoD? Perhaps you should consider better sources if that's the case.
And if this were true you'd see Ukraine lose those specific positions that they were defending, which has not happened. Again, I point to the ISW article I linked previously which shows the scale of the stagnation. There is a manpower shortage which affects both sides, we can see this with Russian recruitment numbers dropping, despite the bo uses for joining the army still being as high as ever.
If this is what you call being on their last legs, what do you call Russia's performance? What do you call it when it took them 1.5 years to capture a small city like Pokrovsk, what do you call it when Gerasimov has to directly lie to Putin about taking Kupyansk, repeatedly? What do you call it when at current rates of advance (provided they don't continue to drop more and more every month) it'd take them more than 4 years to take the rest of the Donetsk oblast? I'm just curious.
Does this not conflict with your previous idea that Zelensky is stubborn and doesn't want the hostilities to end in any way? Zelensky has to (unfortunately) show the USA that Russia is the one which wants the war to continue, and calling for a ceasefire just for Russia to refuse, repeatedly, would be a good way to do that if the USA was lead by anyone other than Donald Trump. Regardless, a ceasefire does benefit a defending force more.
You should read what Russian millbloggers have to say if you think this is true, you would be very surprised. Due to investigate in drone technology much earlier, Ukraine always had and retains the upper hand in terms of FPVs and bomber drones, but Russia is able to manufacture more one way attack drones like Shaheds.
On passenger trains, yes. And Ukraine has ramped up its attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure significantly, and it seems based on the number of hits that Russia is more or less powerless to stop them, and this time around Ukraine is not stopping just because the USA asks them to like they did in the past.
And likewise we've been hearing "Ukraine has lost" since 2022 as well, and you'll continue to uncritically repeat it next year too, and in 2028 too as the war is unlikely to end any time soon.
imunfair@reddit
I would imagine they'd settle for half the country right now, but wouldn't mind turning the whole into a client state like belarus. That was not the original intent though. The original intent was to fold Donbas into Russia and leave it at that, at least in the short term. You can go back and find video of the Duma discussing it and a guy slips up and gives away the plan, and Putin reprimands him.
Not true. They claimed a million man army 2 months into the war, and have been "recruiting" something along the lines of 20k a month. I'll let you do the math, but it gets you a net loss of around 60k a year once you figure in casualties on top of the 100k dead.
It matches well with their degraded performance and lack of any reserves left to plug holes in the front.
They do, regularly. The last 6 months there have been a few instances of Ukraine rushing men to an area to try to contain a breakthrough. But it's a game of whackamole because to concentrate men in one area they weaken another. And each time they lose more men to the concentrated Russian drone squads in the breakthrough area. It saves Russia effort chasing down forces to kill when Ukraine is forced to bring a concentration to counter Russia in a vulnerable spot.
Because people have foresight and can see the trajectory of their army, and it's in a rapid nosedive. Meanwhile Russia is still casually paying people to fight, and allowing them limited term contracts unlike Ukraine's fight-until-you-die arrangement.
No, you haven't been paying attention if you think civilian trains are the only ones being disabled. Russia is taking out everything that moves - because Ukraine will resort to using whatever engines they have to move military goods and personnel, so the goal is for them to have zero train engines available.
A ceasefire to rearm and recruit is not an end of hostilities. Plus he hopes that he can get NATO peacekeepers as a shield and draw them into the conflict when it reignites, since the west refuses to put boots on the ground while the fighting is active.
Cautious. Liberal with their drones and glide bombs, using small highly-mobile groups to clean up after tossing hundreds of them at a place like Pokrovsk. It may not be flashy but they're grinding up the Ukrainian army.
Stix147@reddit
This was the plan under Yanukovich, in fact. It didn't really work put, hence the start of armed hostilities.
Original intent as in 2014, or 2022? Both would be false statements, in 2014 they tried setting up so called peoples republics everywhere around the right bank of the Dnieper, and they could only get the Donbas ones to stick because of direct involvement per Igor Girkin's own words. In 2022 they launched a decapitation strike towards Kyiv which utterly failed, and occupied other oblasts aside from the Donbas ones too. It was never about just the Donbas.
They claimed less than 800k by 2023 actually, and recruitment numbers per month have varied between 15k to 30k. Your argument was about killed, and you won't find a reliable statistic anywhere out there that shows the AFU losing 100k soldiers a year. Aside from the period in late 2022 and mid 2023 when they were on the offense, the AFU have mostly been on the defensive where in general the losses are 3 times lower than when atracking. So unless you're willing to suggest that Russia has 300k KIA a year, these numbers are just nonsensical.
So you admit that Russia wasn't actually able to have any breakthroughs, that's a good first step. Units do sometimes get moved, but you attributing this to the AFU constantly moving troops around when the war is this static is farcical, the fronts would've bucked by now if this was the actual tactic.
Mentioning Kupyansk without acknowledging that Russia just straight up lied about taking the city is telling, and Pokrovsk has been a slow attractions grind for the better part of a year and a half, none of these were breakthroughs, none of these became vulnerable spots over night, and Kostyantinivka looks to be more of the same, but with the added fact that progress is even slower than last year. Russia struggling so hard to take even a single small to medium sized city a year is not a positive thing nor does it show them being more effective at attrition.
And drone squads are used by both sides very effectively, in fact there's been a surge of Russian millbloggers recently complaining about Ukraine's clear superiority in this regard.
Yet Russian battle field gains paint the opposite picture, a thing you seem completely unable to accept.
There is nothing casual about the amounts of money people are being paid to join the army, it is putting a huge amount of stress on the Russian economy and other sectors of the industry need to also increase wages to remain competitive, which makes the situation even worse. And if you think that this could all be solved through yet another round of mobilization, given the number of people who fled the country last time and the amount the current discontent due to the internet restrictions and social media bans they you are beyond naive.
I never said it was, but it's not something someone would do if they're desperate yo keep the war going at all costs which is how you previously painted Zelensky. As for NATO peacekeepers and them being caught in the war when it inevitably reignites, thanks for confirming that you believe it's inevitable that this is what's going to happen, and that Russia will be the one to do it.
This is the sane strategy they've employed since the summer of 2022 by the way, not out of choice but necessity, and yet every year it seems their targets get smaller and smaller, from Bakhmut to Avdiivka to Pokrovsk, from a sizeable percentage of the Ukrainian territory under their control to less than 1% in the last 3 years, this is the kind of strategy that will result in the rest of the Donetsk being out of their grasp for another few years, meanwhile recruitment keeps going down, economic issues keep piling up, their stocks of Soviet era weapons keep getting closer and closer to the very bottom of the barrel as confirmed by satellite images, and the list goes on. This war is going to be Russia's equivalent of the Soviet Afghan war, and hopefully it ends the same for the newer empire too, with a total collapse. It's the only consistent thing about Russia, aside from the oppression and aggressive territorial expansion.
imunfair@reddit
Your 2022 timeline is off, that was later when the ask went up to 4 oblasts. Pre-military intervention the public narrative was independence for donbas, the private goal was to fold donbas into Russia, as I already explained. Once Russia invaded the ask went up to 4 oblasts.
Because I actually watch the maps and their attacks. Your hope and pray I'm not right method isn't going to turn out well. I gave you specific areas to look at, and if you actually cared to look you'd see the defensive failures I mentioned, where Ukraine didn't manage to reverse the gains even with a full concentrated assault.
It's a pattern, they try to retake a breakthrough area, take back part of it, and then a month or a few months later they have to pull the troops to fight other fires and they quietly lose the area completely. Watch what happens in Kupyansk over the coming months, it'll likely completely revert to Russian control, last I heard Ukraine had to pull that latest assault group.
It's a clear indication the AFU is out of gas, whether you refuse to believe it or not. Russia just has to bide their time and keep grinding the way they have been.
If you were on the ropes you wouldn't want to call a pause to get your breath and regroup? What kind of weird logic is that? It fits exactly the intransigent way Zelensky behaves - he's always stated they won't make a deal even if the war stops because they intend to take all the land back when they're able. Likely once they feel they can pull NATO into the war since they can't win alone.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Russia invades its neighbor, sends thousands to kill and die: “I don’t care in the slightest.”
Ukraine defends itself: “Wrap it up and give whatever concessions”
That’s a pretty revealing set of priorities.
imunfair@reddit
Yeah it reveals I don't assign morality to geopolitics. If you can't stop your bigger neighbor from bashing you over the head with a wrench until you submit, you might want to submit before you die.
The Ukrainian forces are dwindling and there's zero chance NATO is putting boots on the ground to rescue them, so the only thing preventing the necessary action is Zelensky's pride, and fear of the repercussions of getting 400k of his own people killed to get a worse deal than if he'd just negotiated in good faith in 2023.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
You say you "don’t assign morality," but you’re still prescribing an outcome: the invaded should roll over.
Meanwhile, this "bigger neighbour" failed to take Kyiv, got chased away in Kharkiv oblast, has been bogged down for four years, and is now using desperate tactics with soldiers on dirt bikes...
and your conclusion is still surrender? That is unhinged.
imunfair@reddit
I can see how you'd think that with your rather uninformed take on how the war is going. Try reading less Ukrainian propaganda and you'll understand what it feels like to have your army plowed under while people on reddit cheer.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Can you name Russia's most recent battlefield victory?
imunfair@reddit
Even your questions are wrong, and they show that you're one of those "winning too slow" people who only care about territorial gains - missing the forest for the trees.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
This is like the "this is fine" and the "are you winning son?" memes combined.
It definitely explains the complaints about Ukraine receiving 106 billion dollars.
imunfair@reddit
When you're the bigger country taking less casualties than the country you're invading is indeed "fine", without any flames. That's why Russia can buy soldiers and Ukraine has to drag them kicking and screaming into vans with their goon squad. That's the heinous part of the war - even on day 1 they were refusing to let men leave with their families, now most of the men who wanted to fight are dead and the opinion of the remaining serfs doesn't matter to the king as long as he stays on the throne for a bit longer.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Let me get this straight: you say Russia will win because it’s bigger, but then dismiss the total lack of recent battlefield victories.
So size proves victory, but actual results don’t?
imunfair@reddit
The victories are the dead Ukrainian soldiers, in case you're not playing dumb and haven't caught on to the trajectory of the war yet. Based on our past discussions though I suspect this is just more bad faith banter and you know exactly what I'm talking about.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
So many victories then, yet so many more to go while Russia crumbles from the inside, Ukraine keeps producing drones, keeps receiving money, and above all, is still able to lower the conscription age to keep fighting.
Are you winning, son?
imunfair@reddit
"Russia is super-secretly crumbling while Ukraine is just openly falling to pieces - my team will totally outlast your team!" /eyeroll okay bro
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Super secret! https://www.reuters.com/world/leader-russias-communists-warns-parliament-risk-revolution-due-faltering-economy-2026-04-22/
Your username checks out.
Exepony@reddit
I'm always surprised how Western media will (correctly) recognize Russia as undemocratic, and in the next breath pretend there's a "parliament", "elections", or "political parties" in Russia. Not even the Russian public is gullible enough to fall for this "good tsar, bad boyars" act anymore. Zyuganov is just playing his part in this unconvincing play, scolding the boyars after Putin did the same. This happens every time any bad news comes out, just to show "we're doing something, the situation is under control".
Look, even if there really is a 1.8% YoY GDP contraction that's not explained by more holidays in January than usual, 1.8% is just not that much. In 2022 the contraction was 1.4%, we were all being told Russia's economy was about to collapse, and then they had two years of 4% growth. By way of comparison, COVID caused a 2.6% contraction in 2020, and the GFC shrunk the GDP by 7.8% (!) in 2009. None of those caused an economic collapse or revolution.
Reuters themselves point out there are no signs of serious social unrest. Even the European countries who have been showing much worse numbers than Russia, like Germany, for example, aren't really seeing any, and Russia has far more tools of suppressing unrest at its disposal than liberal democracies do. Their economy will need to be ten times as bad before we can even begin to talk about "crumbling".
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Yeah I understand your point, yet I was replying to this:
They wouldn't have to "bad boyars" the situation if all was fine. Them 'bad boyaring' the economy does show it is dealing with problems.
Exepony@reddit
Problems, sure, but a bad couple of months is a far cry from "crumbling". The situation has gotten worse, which is why the Russian government had to acknowledge it, but it's just gone from "growing" to "maybe a slight recession", depending on how well they can capitalize on the surging oil prices. /u/imunfair's comment was obviously making fun of this wishful-thinking tendency to take any bad economic news out of Russia as a sign of imminent economic collapse in spite of all objective indicators.
That said, I can also see where you're coming from: after all, in a country with an actual parliament an MP saying the country is on the brink of revolution would be a big deal. But the Duma is a theater, not a parliament, and Zyuganov is an actor famously prone to chewing the scenery.
Czart@reddit
That is our resident clown. If you see their comment you are 99.99% guaranteed to see dumbest take possible.
Practical-Pea-1205@reddit
400 000 people are not dead because of Zelensky. They're dead because of Putin.
imunfair@reddit
No, as I said any leader with foresight and the most basic knowledge of history knew what was coming. You don't get to knowingly run a suicide mission and then claim it's someone else's fault that you died. That's what's happening at a national level. The death of a nation in slow motion, thanks to an incompetent leader.
Guaire1@reddit
Once again, putin is the one that invaded, any deaths, russian or ukranian, are his exclusove fault
CluelessExxpat@reddit
Putin's invasion does not invalidate the lack of strategy of the EU and Ukraine.
Guaire1@reddit
Ther was enough of an strategy that russia is in its 3rd year of ots 3 day operation, and losing groind actively
CluelessExxpat@reddit
Who cares about Russia? Its disgustingly obvious Putin messed up.
Conversation is about EU and its weird support mentality. Either support Ukraine for a win or stop. We are giving only enough support for them to slowly lose and nobody knows the end goal behind that.
Guaire1@reddit
Literally everyone? Russia is the rrason anything happened at all
CluelessExxpat@reddit
Its like talking to a wall. Incredible.
deSuspect@reddit
Your name would explain why you don't understand anything.
edgsto1@reddit
Ukraine is taking huge amount of land back. The moscals are falling back. Fuck you mean they should have given up?
Also "I don't care in the slightest" is 100% a vatnik bot answer without wanting to show that.
"Hitler killing millions? I don't care in the slightest". You can fuck right off with this mentality
shieeet@reddit
Never change, baltoids, never change 🙂↕️
imunfair@reddit
No they aren't, get less biased news sources or read the maps yourself.
If you're talking about last month they took a couple hundreds square meters of farm land, it was an absolute nothingburger aside from the fact that they've been losing for so many years consistently that actually bringing the gains to zero for a single month by throwing all their forces at one spot was better than usual. Of course anyone paying attention knows they paid a heavy price for that worthless PR victory.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
If you actually cared, your default position would be "Russia withdraws" not "Ukraine rolls over"
pick_your_user_name@reddit
Instead of worrying about the 90 billion we sent to a country that borders us, you should worry about the hundreds of billions of dollars and 13 lives your government has wasted fighting a country 11,000 km away. AGAIN.
imunfair@reddit
Oh believe me, I don't love the amount of tax dollars the US spins off on wars on the other side of the world, including a cool couple hundred billion on Ukraine.
pick_your_user_name@reddit
At least the hundred billion you spent on Ukraine went towards fighting an actual threat to the US, which has been an enemy of yours for the last 80+ years.
imunfair@reddit
They haven't been an enemy of ours since the USSR fell, the only people who thought they were a threat were some fossils in our government that didn't realize the cold war ended and still had a grudge.
But hey, at least we revitalized their army, forced them to root out corruption and update their combined forces tactics, and made them into the actual threat that Biden lied and said they were at the start. If Putin dies and gets replaced by a less measured leader then yeah, Europe may have some problems. You should have left well enough alone.
pick_your_user_name@reddit
Yeah let’s forget about the bounties they put on American soldiers heads in Afghanistan, or the time they attacked an American base in Syria
imunfair@reddit
I said what I said. You seem to be viewing our military through the lens of a country that has none, because those things you're talking about as if they're a big deal aren't even a blip on the radar of our overseas military interventions.
pick_your_user_name@reddit
The lives of your fellow Americans aren’t even a blip on your radar? You should go into American politics you’d fit right in.
imunfair@reddit
Not sure if you just can't read or you're just trolling.
Stix147@reddit
On the contrary, they allowed oil to flow through the pipeline in order to get this loan, and oil reached both Hungary and Slovakia a few days ago. Also, Russia was the one which damaged it initially and Ukraine already had to repair it again. What is your source for Ukraine supposedly "blowing it up"?
imunfair@reddit
Less than a day after the loan was approved Ukraine attacked the Druzhba pumping station with drones again. Feel free to google it.
edgsto1@reddit
"Ukraine hits Russian oil pumping station, part of Druzhba pipeline" first step is learning to read
imunfair@reddit
Thanks for repeating what I said verbatim and acting like you did something.
edgsto1@reddit
That pipeline has 46 pumping stations. You made it sound, like Ukraine disabled that whole pipeline. In other word, you used the moscal propoganda type of communication. Not suprised tho
imunfair@reddit
Ironically Kyiv Post was one of the first "moscal propagandists" crowing about this particular angle. Shoe, meet mouth. Funny how when you guys get embarrassed by your own sides mistakes you try to lay the blame on Russia, constant pattern of screwing up by not having basic manners and blaming others for your indecency.
Stix147@reddit
I did, and found nothing. How about you source your claims.
CluelessExxpat@reddit
Kyiv Post, just today. Said Ukraine blew up the Druz something pump station. Idk if thats the one he is talking.
Beat_Saber_Music@reddit
The agreement was over the Druzhba pipeline in Ukraine.
The pipeline in Russia had some Russian accidentally tossing a cigarette as the Russians say every time their stuff blows up, pr was it that an Ukrainian drone was successfully intercepted
Also Europe is supporting Ukraine because if it falls, Russia will next look at the Baltics
imunfair@reddit
"We're going to 'repair' our part and destroy the part upstream a day after you give us the money we feel we're owed. Totally paying you back for your help, right?"
lol they don't give a rats ass about the EU's needs, it's just an ATM to Ukraine. Once you don't have any handouts they reprimand and discard you.
Vladu24@reddit
Please own a passport before discussing other countries. Thank you.
imunfair@reddit
What a silly thing to say. I've been traveling since I was a toddler. Thanks for playing the "you look like a fool" game. Better luck next time.
Vladu24@reddit
Yeah, it really comes across that you have. Try stepping out of the vehicle you travel in next time. Experiencing other cultures had to be the #1 stimulant towards developing an empathy gland.
And for weaning yourself off of humiliating yourself when you try bombing others, but look who I'm telling that, my sides.
imunfair@reddit
That's your error, thinking geopolitics is about empathy. One day you'll grow up and figure out the game.
Vladu24@reddit
I was talking about life, not geopolitics. Subtle difference but very important: first one is for when you can maintain erections.
Anyway, we won't change each other's minds, right? Best not hog the waves for no reason.
I hope your humiliation kink thing goes well <3
imunfair@reddit
Difference being one is actually relevant to the conversation, the other is only relevant to your internal anger. Hope you can get that sorted out.
Nerevarcheg@reddit
Great.. 86 to steal, 10 to cronies and thugs, 5 into propaganda, 5 into something that directly benefits local "elites" but also people, which can be presented like "see, how much work we do, we'll give ourselves a raise and go on unplanned vacation again, you go die (if lucky enough) in trenches for us".
TrizzyG@reddit
Crazy that Ukraine is holding off Russia for 4 years by embezzling all their money. Must beg the question what Russia is doing 🤔
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