The 1973 oil embargo removed 4.5 million barrels per day. Hormuz is blocking 20 million.

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Pecan_Artist@reddit

It is estimated that 50 million ppl will starve over this.

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The interesting thing to me is that this shows the strategic reserves work to help insulate in the short term. It also shows how having a buffer just means the people in charge dick around more than they should, and make the situation worse, because they aren't HURT yet.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

strategic reserves are doing exactly what they were designed for but the math is running out. US SPR was at a 40 year low before this even started thanks to the 2022 drawdowns. at current burn rate the buffer lasts maybe 3 to 4 more months. china on the other hand stacked reserves before the war started, they hold more oil than the US japan and europe combined right now. the short term insulation is real but it has an expiration date and once it expires the price discovery happens all at once instead of gradually. thats the part that concerns me most about the timeline

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Hour-Stable2050@reddit

They also have enough strategic reserves of rice and wheat to feed the whole country for a year.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

yeah china has been building food reserves aggressively since 2020. wheat rice corn soybeans. they learned from the 2008 crisis that food security is national security. the difference between 1973 and now is that the countries with reserves prepared for exactly this scenario and the ones without are about to feel it first

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Lailokos@reddit

The sea mines all but guarantee price discovery is a when, not an if. Finance can hide and manipulate almost anything, especially a commodity market, but 3+ months more of this might be beyond even their ability. The physical damage done to production/pipelines/etc, and the fact mines will take a long time to clear, and each side continuing to be maximalist...I wouldn't bet this ends anytime soon, despite media optimism. Recession is already setting in in Australia/UK, and our bond rate is >5%. This gets ugly.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

they do work but the problem is we used a huge chunk of them in 2022 for what turned out to be a temporary price spike. SPR went from 600 million barrels down to about 370 million. never refilled. so now when we actually need them for a real supply disruption the cushion is less than half what it was designed to be. the reserves work until they dont and that threshold is a lot closer than people think.

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Kim_Jong_Unko@reddit

Well, the strategic reserves for all countries except the US are serving the purpose for which they were designed. Costs not spiraling out of control all across the world (they certainly are in some areas) is evidence they are working as intended.

This is a political situation involving a small number of countries but impacting the whole world. There's not much that most countries can do but apply political pressure (which clearly doesn't have much effect on US decision making).

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

exactly this. the SPR was designed for exactly this scenario and its doing its job. problem is the US reserve is already at its lowest since the 80s after the drawdowns in 2022. the buffer buys time but not 6 months of time at this burn rate. once it gets thin the price discovery gets real ugly real fast.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

yeah china has been building food reserves aggressively since 2020. wheat rice corn soybeans. they learned from the 2008 crisis that food security is national security. the difference between 1973 and now is that the countries with reserves prepared for exactly this scenario and the ones without are about to feel it first

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masturbathon@reddit

The interesting thing is how little it’s changing gas prices so far. My theory is that they’re trying to hold the prices steady so people don’t freak out and divest. But that’s a very short term strategy and at this point we’re still months from relief.

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keytiri@reddit

Someone on YouTube said they are essentially “shorting” the market, selling future barrel contracts at say $100 despite current physical price being $140; so using the futures market to control today’s market, it sounded intentional, but he wasn’t able to elaborate on who. I mean the who is sorta obvious imo, and well who better considering they’ve been making massive profits off the market. Whether it works or not, I’m doubtful but the market certainly can stay irrational longer than we can.

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HommeMusical@reddit

That is an extremely expensive way to influence the markets.

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Frequent-Ad-6206@reddit

My crackpot theory, some of this giant whale 🐳 insider trading/betting is being used as a slush fund to manipulate the market. No idea if that’s realistically possible or the scale that would be required.

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HommeMusical@reddit

Why is it crackpot? We know there are trillions of dollars in dark money from e.g. the Panama Papers.

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RevolutionaryEgg297@reddit

Top three richest people on earth support it..

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

the strategic reserve drawdown is masking it. they pulled 180 million barrels in 2022 to keep prices down and never fully refilled. SPR is at 40 year lows right now. so we have less cushion than any point since the early 80s going into the biggest supply disruption since world war 2. once the reserves cant absorb the gap anymore the pump price catches up fast.

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Dewrod@reddit

The reality is, they're still making a ton of profit. They don't NEED to raise gas prices. They've just conditioned us to the oil prices rise, so now gas prices rise.

They're just making less profit than they were.

Oil could go to $250 a barrel and gas prices could stay exactly as they are right now and the oil companies wouldn't lose a single dollar.

Eat. The. Rich.

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Prior-Win-4729@reddit

Gas prices are dropping in my state

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squeagy@reddit

The "early" gas station near me wemt from 3.60 to 3.99 today...

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Prior-Win-4729@reddit

Ours went from 3.49 to 3.19

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squeagy@reddit

Doubt

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Prior-Win-4729@reddit

In SC, no lie. Back to 3.49 today

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squeagy@reddit

Convenient. Several stations are at 3.99 today here

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scattershotdreams@reddit

I feel like, at least in my area, they’re doing everything they can to avoid going over $4. It hovers at $3.99 at most. Which is still $1.50 higher than before this started.

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ka_beene@reddit

I live in OR and it's been in $4 range sometimes $5. Cost of living is high on the west coast.

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scattershotdreams@reddit

Oh yea, definitely. It's high for here in NC, but the west coast prices are scary.

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masturbathon@reddit

Just gotta kick the can far enough down the road to make this the democrats fault...

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

thats strategic reserve releases doing the work. US alone has burned through about 40 million barrels of SPR since this started. problem is the SPR was already at a 40 year low before the war from the 2022 drawdown. at current burn rate the cushion lasts maybe 3 to 4 more months before the real price discovery starts. the other thing holding prices down is demand destruction, people just driving less and factories cutting shifts. thats not a good thing, thats the recession arriving quietly before anyone calls it one

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MintyNinja41@reddit

Used to be about 2.50 USD/US gallon (0.66 USD/litre) in my area.

Now it’s 3.60 USD/gallon (0.95 USD/litre)

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specialsymbol@reddit

It's still less than half of what in Europe is paid

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

i think youre right about the retail lag. someone else in the r/oil thread pointed out that June futures are already well above spot. the strategic reserves and existing inventory are absorbing the initial shock but thats a finite buffer. once it runs dry the sticker price catches up fast. airlines are already pricing it in with fuel surcharges but the pump hasnt moved as much as the market has.

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terpsarelife@reddit

The price difference between paper Brenda futures and current spot price is much higher than the average difference between the two in decades. Isn't the average difference in price under $5 delta from one another and its currently at Δ30~

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Bluest_waters@reddit

Trump released a boatload of oil from the national reserves, and also lifted sanctions on Russian oil. That's helped, but the national reserves are just a Band-Aid and we'll run out at some point

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OsamaBinWhiskers@reddit

People’s been putting it in perspective for weeks now and it’s like nothings happening. Lol

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galt035@reddit

Real underlying issues is the fertilizer and fertilizer adjacent products that aren’t leaving..

It’s one thing to have food prices go up because of energy it’s an entirely different animal when there isn’t food..

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Gildenstern45@reddit

A thousand bucks a ton plus shipping. Up about 22 percent over last year.

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galt035@reddit

Are you getting delivery? Curious to know? Do you do urea pre treatments?

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TicklishViking@reddit

We won't see any major disruptions in the food supply until harvest season in 6 months. Even if everything goes back to what it was the damage has been done.

As usual, only the poor will be effected. Therefore those with the wealth and power to prevent this won't do shit because it doesn't effect them.

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HommeMusical@reddit

Have an upvote!

effected

Affected. :-)

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times_a_changing@reddit

Every society is three hot meals missed away from complete anarchy, and it will be the rich who suffer when their warehouses are raided and their mansions burned down and their children hung

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galt035@reddit

As the esteemed RATM once sang “hungry people don’t stay hungry for long..”

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leisurechef@reddit

Oh something is happening, my pantry is getting overstocked

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Frozty23@reddit

That's... a good idea. A switch just flipped in my brain.

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Arctic_Chilean@reddit

Line go up

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Bluest_waters@reddit

The market will live in denial for as long as it possibly can. That's what the market does. Sooner or later the simple reality that there is a massive oil shortage, as in an actual physical shortage, is going to come crashing down on the world economy and it's initially going to spiral into a recession. Then a depression. Then the fun really starts

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Goatmannequin@reddit

we're already in a depression we've been in a depression for uh a couple years I think it's been pretty bad since covet dude but it's getting depression already with AI look at that price of beef look at the price of houses but we're in a depression already and another one's gonna hit on top of it so think about that

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BattleGrown@reddit

We wont hear the news of impacted nations

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marshinghost@reddit

Plane tickets to see my family in japan went from $800 this same time last year to $2,500

Plus the obvious $5.50/gal at the pump where I live

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daviddjg0033@reddit

Were we consuming 105M bbl of oil a day in 1973?

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Swineservant@reddit

So if oil goes up, gold goes up?

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lost_horizons@reddit

They do tend to track each other, so yes, expect precious metals to return to the uptrend

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daviddjg0033@reddit

Which implies more scarcity and more inflation going into that next cycle. Its gold all the way down.

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Psychological-Sport1@reddit

I remember here in Vancouver Canada I was in grade 10 and the price of gas shot up and I had to get gas for the mower and my dad thought I stole the extra 50 cents because the plastic Jerry can only ha so much gas……I was flummoxed and I pointed out to my clueless dad that’s there was a massive car lineup down our road waiting for gas because it was rationed or something and then he realized that there was a problem and marched up to the gas station at the end of our block and then came back an apologized for getting mad (parents can be so clueless when your a kid !!)

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Hour-Stable2050@reddit

I was in grade 5, living in Toronto and have no memory of the oil crisis. It must not have been that bad.

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qyy98@reddit

4.5 million out of 60 million total global consumption per day in 1973

20 million out of \~105 million total global consumption per day in 2026

So a bit more than double the size of disruption

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kismethavok@reddit

The bright side: We have a lot more optional energy expenses and more viable substitutes.

The downside: Modern capitalism won't allow it.

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times_a_changing@reddit

There are absolutely zero genuinely viable alternatives to petrochemicals

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

exactly this. and the percentage is actually worse than it looks because in 1973 the US was already a major producer and could partially absorb the shock domestically. today the countries getting hit hardest are the ones with zero domestic production, southeast asia especially. demand destruction is eating about 4 to 5 million barrels of that gap but thats not supply coming back, thats economic activity dying. the math that scares me is the timeline, pentagon says mine clearing alone is 6 months after any deal and there is no deal

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times_a_changing@reddit

The United States has decided that it would rather trigger the Final Recession and enter us into a state of permanent decay and collapse than admit military defeat to an enemy they attacked voluntarily. Iran has completely and utterly humiliated them, and do you see any way in which Trump will be capable of admitting defeat and succumbing to the fame of being the man who lost the American Empire? To fucking Iran? Not even Russia or China, their tertiary enemy that was supposed to be the stopgap to destroy the bigger enemies. Trump already almost nuked Iran and was stopped once, but how many times will he be stopped until he pulls that trigger? And if he doesn't, is the alternative any better? Either which way this goes, personally I'm willing to bet that we have now seen the actual beginning of the end. Global trade infrastructure will collapse if Southeast Asia falls apart, and it looks like that's unavoidable now. The big oops.

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StrangerthanFunction@reddit

We’re witnessing the end of Americas global hegemony as the thread of global dominance has been by the orange moron. #MAGA

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times_a_changing@reddit

The only good thing he's ever done in his pathetic pedophilic life and it's his biggest failure. Hilarious

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holdenking5150@reddit

We are drilling alot more here than in the 70s? Yes?

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Tearakan@reddit

Kinda. Unfortunately our global economy has not really switched away as much as it needed to from these industries.

All global trade requires oil. Most farming requires the nat gas offshoot chemicals for fertilizer. Most high tech manufacturing and research labs need helium from those processes too.

Any one of these collapsing equals recession at a minimum.

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signed7@reddit

Yeah, we only have alternatives to oil/gas for power but not for plastics, fertilizer, helium and other petrochemical derived stuff

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

good math. the proportional disruption is what makes the 73 comparison undersell it honestly. and the 73 embargo had a clear off switch, the producing countries just had to resume exports. this one has a physical problem. even after a deal somebody has to go find and clear thousands of mines in one of the busiest waterways on earth. thats the 6 month part that makes this fundamentally different.

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rematar@reddit

This video was on a different post.

https://youtu.be/f353QO5Dgus?si=LshMSWlgVPSnPjnN

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errie_tholluxe@reddit

You're forgetting the infrastructure rebuilding.

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Tearakan@reddit

Yep good point. A lot of these industries are physically damaged and woukd take years to be rebuilt.

And that's assuming a full global trade is back up abd running.

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Right-Cause9951@reddit

Modern capitalism proceeds to take a big dump. There were were no heroes that day. Only politically correct martyrs that masqueraded as idealists.

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Hour-Stable2050@reddit

Starving a billion people is definitely a war crime. They talk about food prices going up here but what they aren’t saying is the rich will pay what the poor can’t for scarce food.

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GloriousDawn@reddit

The missing 20M bpd is an outdated figure. Saudi Arabi diverted an additional 5M bpd through their Petroline pipeline to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea. The current deficit due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade is closer to 15M bpd now.

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lost_horizons@reddit

I understand it to be really more like 13 million barrels, since some of the middle east crude is being piped across Saudi to exit via the Red Sea, but it's only part of the original 20 million barrels/day that they can pump over there. Puts us at about a 12% disruption.

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GuayFuhks88@reddit

I came here to ask that question. Raw numbers are meaningless without the context of % figures.

Thanks

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LitlThisLitlThat@reddit

This was my first question, so thank you for doing this research and math for us.

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DangerousRoutine1678@reddit

Just to add to that 1973 7% to 9% removed Today 20%

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CannyGardener@reddit

You da real hero.

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lowrads@reddit

Blockading the strait, or rather getting Iran to mine it, is a damaging attack against India and China, a de facto declaration of war against rivals in an increasingly multi-polar world. An overlooked aspect of this maneuver is that smaller nations, which have heretofore enjoyed unhindered movement of goods through international waters, are now even more squeezed to choose a protector nation. Previously, that would have been their strongest regional neighbor, but that calculus has been upended.

The effects are most profound for India, which only supplies about 10% of their own production. Just a bit under half of their supply previously arrived from the gulf. Western media is mostly ignoring the fuel shortages that have been experienced there, and the social unrest that is mounting.

Previously, Israel used the threat of this scenario as a bargaining chip against European powers, mainly as a way of winning concessions or silence from them. Something in that calculus has also changed, which is also precipitating a more rapid dissolution or reformulation of NATO.

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DementedDemetrius@reddit

Could you share your source on Israel threatening it?

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

israeli defense minister katz said it yesterday, direct quote: we are waiting for the green light from the US first and foremost to complete the elimination of the khamenei dynasty and return iran to the dark ages and the stone age. CBS news live updates april 24. same day the lebanon ceasefire extension was announced

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

this is the angle that doesnt get enough attention. china saw it coming and stacked reserves before the war, they hold more oil than the US japan and europe combined right now. india is getting crushed because they were buying 40% of their crude from the gulf. the irony is the US with its domestic production is relatively insulated while its two biggest economic rivals are taking the hit. whether thats a coincidence or strategy depends on how cynical you are about the timing

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matt95110@reddit

Airlines are dropping routes like crazy and increasing prices. The real impact is coming soon.

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Bluest_waters@reddit

Here's the thing, jet fuel needs high grade oil for its initial input. You can't refine low grade crap oil such as from Venezuela or Nigeria into jet fuel. You need the high grade stuff that comes from Saudi Arabia and or UAE et cetera. So they are running out of high grade oil to process into jet fuel and it's going to get bad period I think Europe has maybe five months left, in Asia is also hurting for jet fuel big time.

The US is actually in a pretty good position because we have high grade oil right here domestically that we can convert to jet fuel, but the price of that jet fuel is still going to rise precipitously

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godlords@reddit

That's quite wrong, Venezuela's heavy sour is actually excellent for producing a higher quantity of middle distillates like kerosene/jet fuel and diesel. It's just not good at producing gasoline.

Crude oil refinery that produces gasoline will always have heavier distillate outputs like diesel, kerosene/jet fuel. Heavy sour sucks for ultra-low sulfur diesel, but it's great for jet fuel which allows for 50x more sulfur.

It does require more intense/complex refining, but that is what we have in U.S. gulf refineries. We already import the heavy sour crude from Canada for this purpose, it mixes perfectly with a smaller fraction of our light sweet crude.

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The_UpsideDown_Time@reddit

Keep in mind also that US flights alone aren't enough to keep the main airlines operating. No international flights (if there's no fuel in Europe or Asia, there's no way to get back) & no intra-country flights will lead to *SEVERE* economic contractions for airlines.

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Ree_For_Thee@reddit

Finally. Consequences.

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GridDown55@reddit

Europe has about 5-6 weeks left of jet fuel. Less for smaller hubs.

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CannyGardener@reddit

Ya, you can see it coming in the futures prices. Oil today is trading at \~90...oil in a month and a half is already trading north of $150/bl. The folks that hedge, like airlines, are already feeling this, so they are the leading indicator here.

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Reasonable_Swan9983@reddit

Can I know where to check these future prices because I can't seem to find anything like you have mentioned

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lost_horizons@reddit

And even if the Strait opened up today, it would take a month and a half plus to actually get that oil to its destination. Those tankers move slowly.

Also we know the Strait isn't going to open tomorrow. The market hopes and is pricing in an end to this very soon but as you say, they won't be able to bury their head in the sand too much longer.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

the airline thing is a leading indicator most people are ignoring. jet fuel is about 30% of airline operating costs and brent above 100 means every route gets repriced. the routes getting dropped first are the thin margin ones, regional and secondary city connections. by summer the transatlantic fares are going to be brutal, lufthansa already cut 20000 flights. the cascading effect is tourism dependent economies losing their main revenue source right as food and energy costs are spiking for their local populations

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mapleleaffem@reddit

Don’t forget that the world needs way more energy now than in the 70s :(

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

yeah exactly. global oil consumption was about 55 million barrels a day in 1973. today its 105 million. so the 4.5 million barrel embargo was roughly 8% of supply. hormuz blocking 20 million is about 19% of a much larger number. the absolute scale is 4x worse but the relative scale is more than 2x worse. and the economy is way more integrated now so the knock on effects travel faster

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VanceKelley@reddit

Reducing the supply of fossil fuels, increasing the price of the remaining supply, and showing the unreliability and volatility of the region that supplies much of the world's oil will provide an incentive for people to switch to alternative forms of energy.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

the acceleration argument is interesting but the timeline doesnt work for the people getting hurt right now. even aggressive renewable buildout takes 5 to 10 years to meaningfully replace the 20 million barrels hormuz was carrying. in the meantime gas is crossing 5 dollars, food prices are spiking because fertilizer depends on petrochemicals, and the countries least able to absorb the shock are the ones most dependent on gulf oil. long term you might be right but the transition period is going to be brutal

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smarmy1625@reddit

until people stop driving like assholes, alternating between slamming on the gas and slamming on the brakes, you know it isn't making a dent.

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Same_Bug5069@reddit

The fragility of the systems built around cheap energy becoming more and more apparent.

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Bluest_waters@reddit

Forget about cheap or expensive, we should never have completely relied on fossil fuels. We know they're destroying the climate, we should have transition to renewable energy 50 years ago

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GardenScared8153@reddit

To make renewable energy you need oil. For cheap oil, you need an economy of scale. Batteries are nowhere near reliable/EROI enough.electric vehicules, Solar panels and wind don't last very long and require materials that aren't renewable and mining that is very energy intensive and polluting.

We need Tesla's research or that sick woman directing the game show to release the necessary tech.

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DementedDemetrius@reddit

False. Solar panels from the 90s still run at 80% capacity.

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Same_Bug5069@reddit

Humanity's heroin

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refusemouth@reddit

The 1973 embargo was in response to the Yom Kippur War, wasn't it? Which was started in retailiation by Egypt and Syria after Israel took a bunch of territory in the 6-day War. Another situation where Israel dragged the world into oil shock. That little tiny country is going to be the death of us all.

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guisar@reddit

It was indeed, good to remind us

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BlackMassSmoker@reddit

If people aren't feeling it already, they will be by around summer.

Pretty much every economist, expert or what have you is saying that a massive shock is coming and this one of the worst energy crisis we've seen in recent times.

And yet, everything is pretty normal. I think as others have observed on here that governments seem to keen to keep the public calm and stop panic buying, probably learning from what they saw in early COVID days. But generally most people don't seem to grasp the consequences that are coming. It's just BAU as always.

It's a scary thought that through all the 'keep calm and carry on', world leaders are sweating, hoping that what's happening in Iran somehow resolves itself even though the old orange man with a melting brain that caused all this has no idea how the fuck to get out of it.

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MDS583@reddit

As if you are describing the situation here in my country Tunisia. Scary and despite the prices of gas still the same as before prices of food and greeneries have increased as never seen before, by summer if the prices of gas go up this situation will be worse.

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Ok_Main3273@reddit

Thank you for reporting from Tunisia, a voice not heard often on this sub. Keep us posted. Best of luck 🤞🏻

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MDS583@reddit

Thank you, I hope the best for the whole world ... including the natural world we live in ...

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GardenScared8153@reddit

super el nino has entered the chat. air conditioning...

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defianceofone@reddit

And the stock market is delusional- but we already knew that.

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Kim_Jong_Unko@reddit

Everything is pretty normal if you live in a Western first-world economy. Southeast Asia is already feeling the pain and the rest of Asia isn't far behind, though China, Japan, and Korea seem to be better prepared than other countries in the area.

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DreadPirateReddas@reddit

Brazil is still doing mostly ok on that front, really hope we can tough it out

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UserUnknownsShitpost@reddit

I wonder when gas prices are going to get severe enough to where people simply refuse to go to work because it is no longer economically feasible to feed your entire paycheck to your gas tank

Never mind what this is going to do to food costs or material costs

Stagflation baby come on down off the shelf share with the class how fucked we are

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RevolutionaryEgg297@reddit

Both me and my wife are looking local

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iamjustaguy@reddit

I guess more people will have to work from home again?

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Economy_Seat_7250@reddit

I'm having to look for another job because my commute has become too expensive.

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timo606@reddit

So much manipulation of the price that we may see shortages before significant price increases

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

you nailed it. the SPR releases and demand destruction are masking the true price. when those buffers run out the discovery is going to be violent. SPR was already at a 40 year low before this war and at current drawdown rate the cushion is maybe 3 to 4 months. so around july or august is when the manipulation stops working and actual scarcity pricing kicks in. the other thing nobody talks about is that once refineries adjust their feedstock to non-hormuz crude the logistics lock in and hormuz oil doesnt just snap back even after a deal

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

this is an underrated point. diesel is where it shows up first because thats what moves literally everything on trucks and ships. spot shortages in specific regions before the headline price moves is exactly what happened in 73 too. the price is a lagging indicator and by the time people notice it at the pump the supply chain has already been hurting for weeks.

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itsgoodpain@reddit

I'm supposed to fly to Europe on a school-related trip (I'm a teacher) around June 20th-- I'm really curious what that is going to look like.... it's a trip with a large amount of students, and if gas prices go up so much, there might be a chance that the trip price would increase drastically last minute. With the margin being so wide between projected-cost versus actual cost, the travel company might not be able to cover the difference in cost.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

honestly I would be watching your airline closely over the next few weeks. jet fuel is roughly 30% of operating costs and brent at 105 means every route is getting repriced in real time. lufthansa already axed 20000 flights. the transatlantic routes are the ones most at risk because the distance means fuel cost per seat is massive. if your school booked before the war you might be locked in at the old fare but rebooking or cancellation would be at the new pricing. june is also right when SPR drawdown gets really thin so thats when the second price shock could hit

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HommeMusical@reddit

I'm supposed to fly to Europe on a school-related trip (I'm a teacher) around June 20th

Oof!

the travel company might not be able to cover the difference in cost.

Surely the travel company already has purchased the tickets? Buying tickets late would be more expensive even in regular times.

I couldn't get exact numbers but surely most plane tickets are purchased weeks or even months in advance, so a surcharge today won't fix all those tickets purchased already.

What I think is more likely to happen is that they just cancel the flights altogether because of lack of jet fuel. "Sorry, we simply can't find enough fuel, here's your money back."

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

honestly the biggest variable for your trip is fuel surcharges. airlines are already adding them and they lag about 4 to 6 weeks behind crude. if Brent stays above 100 through May your tickets are going to look very different by June even if the base fare doesnt change. worth checking the cancellation policy.

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Desterado@reddit

If he already bought the tickets how would the price changing matter?

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

adding some updated numbers since this went up. iran seized 2 more ships yesterday, hours after trump extended the ceasefire. he then ordered the navy to shoot any boats caught laying mines. 31 ships turned back total by the blockade. the ceasefire is a word being used by both sides while the strait stays shut. iran says no reopening while blockade continues, US says no blockade removal until iran stops mining. classic deadlock. also worth noting the FIRMS satellite thermal scan for the gulf region came back clean yesterday which is unusual, either cloud cover or they moved operations underground

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Careful_John@reddit

Thank you, orange idiot president, for reducing our dependency on oil

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jadelink88@reddit

The minesweeping issue is not as hard as it seems IF (big if) everyone is willing. European navies have minesweepers that they would likely be happy to send if everyone agrees to stop firing at each other. The Chinese and Japanese also have them, and a good incentive to clear the straight as well.

We have also seen ships traverse close to the Iranian side with no issue, presumably on a passage clear from mines.

Long term, Iran is likely to keep the straight as a 'tollbooth', if the US navy simply backs off. They can likely do this fairly quickly, but the fees for non Iranian oil tankers are likely to keep oil prices high indefinitely (read; until the global economy takes a hard recession due to said prices).

A rapid resumption of things would likely prevent widespread famine due to fertiliser shortage, though there's still likely to be a recession this year even with that resumption.

At this stage though, a rapid resumption seems unlikely.

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specialsymbol@reddit

But there were way less people and even less consumption.

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Fearless-Temporary29@reddit

There has been something like $65 billion worth of damage to the oil and gas infrastructure in the middle east.

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Pardot42@reddit

Don't worry, the oil and gas companies will be reimbursed with our tax dollars for having to raise their prices.

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greenman5252@reddit

You just need to be patient and wait for it.

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Hilda-Ashe@reddit

"Never let a good crisis go to waste." It's now clear that the world must move away from using fossil fuels. If Pakistanis can do it, then everyone can do it.

A world that is not a hostage to baleful actors in Strait of Persia, is a world moving towards justice.

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mikemaca@reddit

I remember odd even days!

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

adding some more context since this is getting attention. consumer sentiment just came in at 47.6 which is the lowest reading in 74 years of recording. inflation expectations jumped to 4.8 percent.

gold is interesting here too. normally in an energy crisis gold rallies but today it pulled back toward 4700 while oil pushed to 105. theres a divergence forming where gold is being sold to cover margin calls in other positions. same pattern showed up briefly in 2008.

BTC is holding 78K with dominance climbing to 58 percent. within crypto the same flight to safety is happening. everything bleeds into the one thing people trust most in each asset class.

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lost_horizons@reddit

Precious metals will recover and the second half of the year they'll be back to their bull trend. The liquidity crisis is real but at some point when real pain hits, it'll be equities that fall. People will be rushing for hard assets.

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Bandits101@reddit

How much oil was the world using in 1973 compared to today.

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Mother-Grapefruit-45@reddit (OP)

about 60 million barrels a day in 73 versus roughly 105 million now. so the world uses almost twice as much oil but the disruption is about 4x larger in absolute terms. proportionally its about 2.5x worse which someone else in this thread already mathed out.

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