Which country do you think will join the EU next ?
Posted by Adept-One-4632@reddit | AskBalkans | View on Reddit | 113 comments
I know this question has been made a thousand times already, but i still want to know
WeeklyDelivery2000@reddit
No one! France will frexit
Old_Bowler_465@reddit
All the french politicians advocating for frexit loves EU money so it wont happens
Th3Dark0ccult@reddit
I think that despite what anyone says, EU is past it's expansion phase, BUT if any country had any chance to join at all, that'd be Montenegro.
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
Ukraine wil however but probably like in 10 years from now.
Old_Bowler_465@reddit
I dont think they will ever join eu, which is sad because of how much they suffered and fought for it but it seems they got royally fucked with by both russia and the west and are going to stay in a buffer limbo
OnlyZac@reddit
Its biggest expansion, sure, but could reasonably see the western Balkans, Iceland, Ukraine/moldova, and potentially the UK again in the next 10-20 years. Especially if tiered access goes through
Promethevz@reddit
Ukraine joining in the next 20 years is extremely unrealistic.
Certain_Bag6363@reddit
Montenegro most likely or NMK
Bosnia,Serbia and Albania,everybody knows the issues and Turkey is too big of a country for the EU to accept with bigger parts towards the Asian side
Antique_Birthday6380@reddit
Montenegro and Albania are most likely entering EU, not North Macedonia.
Certain_Bag6363@reddit
Albania most likely to become a US state than a EU member
FrontFit7058@reddit
Seems like u been living under a rock lol
Barbak86@reddit
It seems you haven't been following the news and prefer to express your opinion based on feelings.
Albania and North Macedonia used to be a block (like Romania and Bulgaria), but they got decoupled because North Macedonia has stalled, while Albania has progressed very fast. Albania will join the EU two to three years after Montenegro.
Certain_Bag6363@reddit
As we speak the European Comission of Integration has started the procedures of joining for only one country.That is Montenegro.There are no news from Brussels about any other country.Albania will not join the EU for at least 10 years from now on
Barbak86@reddit
They started it today. If you asked this same question 3 weeks ago, you would have the same answer even with Montenegro not starting the procedures of joining. First Montenegro, then Albania. Why? Because of the amount of chapters that were opened and finished.
Albania has opened all of the chapters and that's how we know it will be joining after Montenegro. Macedonia is stalling, Serbia and Bosnia are nowhere.
Elmalukat@reddit
So you know better than the European Commission and all of the positive progress it has been going through?
Antique_Birthday6380@reddit
Well, it looks like you have no idea at all what you’re talking about.
TheOnurobo@reddit
They wouldnt let Turkey into the EU even if Turkey was the most democratic country in the planet, its about christianity
MB4050@reddit
Clearly it will be Montenegro first, possibly as soon as 2028. Then, Albania, maybe as soon as 2030, possibly later.
Afterwards it becomes hard to tell.
If Serbia manages to throw Vučić out somehow I could see them getting in close after Albania, say before 2035, because they are objectively not a more developed country and had already started the joining process.
I'm not an expert on Macedonia's disputes with Greece and Bulgaria, but if they figure them out, I think it's still possible for them to join before 2040.
BiH seems very tricky because of the whole federation issue, but in a world where Serbia is in the EU, I don't think Krajina will have too many objections.
Turkey is the only one I don't see joining anytime soon, even though it'd be the most useful one to the block: highest population, largest economy, strong military.
However, with Erdogan's constant empowering and the country's historical military-dictatorial tendencies, I think we'll have to wait past 2050 to seem join
shiwonozomu_majochan@reddit
> However, with Erdogan's constant empowering and the country's historical military-dictatorial tendencies, I think we'll have to wait past 2050 to seem join
Won't happen in a thousand years. Most Europeans would rather have Lebanon and Kazakhstan in EU than Turkey.
MB4050@reddit
Speak for yourself.
Adept-One-4632@reddit (OP)
Regarding that dispute. Back in 2022, North Macedonia agreed to ratify the constitution so that Bulgarians can become a legal minoroty with fully protected rights, similar to Albanians and Aromanians. However, the nationalist VMRO party opposed this deal claiming that it goes against the Macedonian Identity. And now that they control the goverment and presidency, they will not make any ratifications anytime soon.
Pretty sure you got the names mixed up. Bosnia's other federal state is called the Republic of Srpska.
MB4050@reddit
Yeah, it’s quite a mess in NM!
nono I didn’t mess up the name of RS. I just wanted avoid writing Serbia and Srpska next to eachother, and I also think it’s stupid that in english we call it “Srpska” which just means “Serbian” as part of “Serbian republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina”. So I just called it Krajina for convenience, a name referring to a swathe of western Bosnia and central Croatia used by Serbian nationalist movements for self-identification
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
North Macedonia cannot even close to EU and there is no veto currently, but ethni nationalistic government that imposed self blockage like a self veto and tries to renegotiate agreements that are done with the EU council.
It's run by similar nationalists like in Serbia
silentmarrow@reddit
i think you meant Republika Srpska (the smaller entity)
MB4050@reddit
Yes I did, but I called it “Krajina” on purpose to avoid writing “Serbia” and “Srpska” in the same sentence. It’s a term referring to an area in western BiH and central Croatia used by Serbian nationalists in the ‘90s, so I just used it for convenience
scales_and_fangs@reddit
I want to say North Macedonia but the current state of Bulgaria-NM relations don't bode well. The government changes in both NM and Bulgaria will likely mean no progress will be made, I expect even some deterioration there.
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
North Macedonia is a bad shaped country like Bosnia, there is no way to join EU. After long time and it's a chaos there. Only Montenegro and then Albania which is projected and up until 2030. Two new Balkan countries to join.
mne1237@reddit
Montenegro in 2027-2028 Albania in 2028-2029 North Macedonia in 2029-2030
Not sure about Bosnia and Serbia. Bosnia will have to fix its internal divide which can take a lot of time. Serbia will have to change the government to a pro EU one and stay on that course for some time.
So, my predictions for Bosnia and Serbia are around 2034.
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
North Macedonia cannot enter EU, they are hostile enough and have nationalistic government similar like in Serbia.
Albania has no Russian interference and should follow Montenegro but the issue is if veto stays for these two or be removed. For Montenegro it will be a huge success.
Barbak86@reddit
Serbia has to declare their size in square kilometers as well. That will take some time.
Hopeful_Addition7834@reddit
Geopolitically, I could imagine Albania, although they have conflicts.
I could totally imagine Montenegro, although not likely before Albania, due to geography
I could imagine North Macedonia, although they are not pushing as much as as Albania, and are possibly not as "valuable" as Montenegro
That is my two cent, as someone having almost no personal connection, just reading things.
TerranCitizen45@reddit
Montenegro, to show that the EU has not forgotten the Western Balkans. Then Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzogovina and Kosovo all together. There is little chance Albania is entering EU before Serbia, they know it will create more problems. And whether we like it or not, the EU does consider Serbia the lynchpin of the Western Balkans.
Barbak86@reddit
Bro we are past the 90'. Serbia is a non NATO state, with no force to be the lynchpin of anything. Their entire paralel structures are being dismantled in North Kosovo as I am writing this comment right now, and they can't do anything about it because it's not the 90'.
TerranCitizen45@reddit
Serbia is involved in ALL of the countries from the Western Balkans. You need to understand that EU is about Geo-political interests and stability. The EU knows that if ANY Albanian heavy territory enters EU before Serbia, it will be a shit sandwich. The EU DOES NOT like shit sandwiches.
And, if Serbia was not such a threat, there would be no need for a military alliance between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo.
Barbak86@reddit
Oh boy, here we go again with the military alliance that doesn't exist. Please just Google about it. I'm tired of explaining what it is to people that inform themselves by the headlines of shitty news outlets.
Serbias problems with EU regarding Kosovo are already a thing without Albania joining. It's Germany and France that keeps Kosovo issue over their heads, and it is one of the chapters they have to open and close.
Albania declared it's willingness to forfeit it's VETO power and to align it's EU policies with Italy (basically becoming a satelite of Italy when it comes to EU decisions).
Albania doesn't need to do anything regarding Kosovo, because Kosovo is Germany's baby. The same way Germany pushed the visa liberalization process of Kosovo, forcing Spain to magically accept our passports, they will push Serbia to accept that they don't have any sovereignty over Kosovo (if Serbia strives to join the EU). They will not push them to accept Kosovo as independent, because it's a maximalist demand, but they will force them to accept that they administer 10 000 km² less than what they learn in school and that they can't speak for those 10000 square kilometers because they are not theirs.
TerranCitizen45@reddit
It's not an alliance, it's military cooperation, between countries that...(checks notes)...historically REALLY DISLIKE the Serbs (I am not saying there no reasons for that). Bottom line, they are worried the Serbs might do something, so they are teaming up.
Montenegro will join so they can show that EU integration is not dead. Then EVERYONE ELSE will join together so no country can cause a shit storm. Even Rama and Vucic declared that Albania and Serbia should join together without veto powers. Even they know that for the sake of the Western Balkans, is best if everyone just joins, and then no one can hold anything over anyone's head.
Serbia won't even have to officially recognize Kosovo. Even other EU countries don't recognize it. They can just slap some "special designation" label and get on with it. We are like children to the EU, and there is no reason they can't treat us like such.
"Here you go, kid, some Schengen and money for you, welcome to the EU. Now keep quiet, do what your told and don't shit on the carpet."
Hopeful_Addition7834@reddit
I could totally imagine Montenegro, although it would push in Albania's matter as well, due to geography.
I can imagine Albania joining even when not fully "ready" so that Montenegro can join and not have a fragmented geography for EU.
Hopeful_Addition7834@reddit
And about Serbia, I think they are to Russia what Israel is to USA.
And Bosnia is the buffer state like Lebanon in that metaphor
time_observer@reddit
Moldova.
Interesting-Ad-5573@reddit
Very unlikely if you ask me.
time_observer@reddit
And you are?
Interesting-Ad-5573@reddit
Efectiv sunt din Moldova. 2030 e un termen prea optimist pentru aderarea la UE.
Sunt progrese, nu zic. Problema transnistreană rămâne neschimbată de 30 de ani. Nici un guvern de până acum nu a făcut pași concreți pentru soluționarea conflictului.
Barbak86@reddit
Montenegro first, Albania second. The rest depends on how fast or slow things move.
Emotional_Story9702@reddit
Easy call, Montenegro.
mne1237@reddit
Montenegro. The document for signing is going to be ready by January 2027. Realisticly, Mne will join in summer of 2027 unless a member state veto-s it.
blitzfreak_69@reddit
Today the EU gave the green light to form the working group that will draft the Montenegro - EU Acession Agreement. I think this answers your question.
Farmaceut7@reddit
What getting rid of a dictator does to a mf country! Hope we get rid of our own soon!
caesarj12@reddit
Happy for you guys. You deserve it after you got rid of Djukanovic.
Active_Drawing_1821@reddit
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
North Macedonia will never join EU, so please don't in include us in any EU lists
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
Man, I was there some years ago. if it's the same, you need to join trust me
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Nothing needs to happen, trust me.
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
Have you ever visited other countries?
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Yeah, including yours.
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
Mine was so much worse before UE ( I still remeber)
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Listen I'm aware of the benefits that my country will have from just being a member state of the EU. But still, some matters, like the national identtiy, have no price. Lets say if you were in a situation to choose between joining the EU but for the price of your nation to give up on your history and aknowledge that those historical people were not Romanians but lets say Hungarians, and that your nation in fact was Hungarian, but somehow one sunny beaytiful day they have decided to become Romanian. Would you accept such conditions and requirements from the EU?
Pen-Tool-1987@reddit
Не сери, не е идентитетот проблем. Проблем е корупцијата клиентелизмот и непотизмот во секоја ебена пора од општеството.
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Ti si tocno problemot i zoshto ijame problem so site komshii i zoshto sekoj vtor ni se sere na glava. Lugje ko tebe i ne treba da im se dozvoli da ostanat vo zemjava.
Pen-Tool-1987@reddit
Вмрано опрај се
Mysterious_Pack3598@reddit
Oh God not the Alexander the Great was Slavic shit
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Beleive me, Alexander the Great is not a topic for debate between Macedonia and Bulgaria.
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
Skopje will never get into EU. There is no dispute as all is solved with agreements. When Serbia enters, which means never then you might reconsider.
notnotnotnotgolifa@reddit
He was also an avid vodka drinker and he did not have greek style feet
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
No, he was heavy rakija drinker and some red wine on rare ocasions. We don't drink vodka in Macedonia, only lozova rakija.
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
Ahh, the thing is that i am really not the person for this kind of discussion ( i do empathize with you - I don't know much, just some of the history behind), but I am an extremely non nationalist person. So, technically I agree that such a condition is extremely stupid and should not be part of any economical alliance requirements
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Exactly, this is bilateral issue, and needs to be excluded from the negotiations.
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
low IQ
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
Well, I really hope the best for you
notnotnotnotgolifa@reddit
What
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
MK is following Serbia. If you know about Balkan all allies of Serbia probably will never join EU including Bosnia, but excluding Montenegro.
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
(I don't know much about balkan politics) but I belive that the "casual" population should change their views in time. Even in Romania we have some "EU is bad" people, that don't realize how many benefits we got from it...
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
is Romania more developed in your eyes than the rest of Balkan countries? if you have been to some
OkBarracuda4108@reddit
Soo by pure naked eye (not economy or politics) just how houses and roads looked (how clean and technological) i would say: Two years ago I was to Dubrovnik in Croatia by car, i think it must be the most "developed" Balkan country. I also passed Serbia (which i visit often as I am south estern) and I think it looks slightly poorer then Romania. I also passed Bosnia, they seemed to also be doing good close to Croatia, seemed better then Serbia and some Romanian poorer cities. I also went to Montenegro, beautiful, but they did have random trash on the roads (the fact that I no longer see trash on the streets and in the forests in Romania is one of the most obvious sign of the EU benefits) and the people seemed poor - nice nevertheless even tho they didn't speak any English :)).
To Bulgaria I also go often- it looks exactly like Romania but they have better roads.
To Greece I haven't been in the last maybe 6 years, but it was always good looking, so i am assuming it's the same.
Albania and Turkey are the only places I haven't visited.
roctac@reddit
Rightfully so. Backward nation.
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Maybe, but probably its due to our allergy to Vulgars.
Roufianos255@reddit
You hate your own people?
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
How do you know they are my people, and not yours?
Roufianos255@reddit
Because it's a historical fact that the population of North Macedonia identified as Bulgarian until the 1900s.
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
They didn't identify as Bulgarian, they were members of the Bulgarian Exarchy (church), so on the base of that they were registered as Bulgarians (by the ottomans). Those that were part of the Greek church were registered as "Greeks", there was no option for Macedonian. Later the same people declared themselves as Yugoslavians, but somehow you don't claim that we are Yugoslavians because there is no such country and nation anymore which is not good for your agenda.
Roufianos255@reddit
Not true. There's 100s of sources from people who visited the region from all corners of the world. All of them make reference to Bulgarian race, language etc. It's not just a church thing: https://youtu.be/5PPl53PyDOo?is=Xb-wS7JM1sKvArnr. See many here. The first person to ever argue for the existence of a Slav Macedonian nationality was Misirkov.
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Building on the "Theme" system, medieval writers used the term "Bulgarian" as a broad catch-all for the Slavic-speaking population under the jurisdiction of the Archbishopric of Ohrid.
The Archbishopric of Ohrid was titled "of All Bulgaria." However, "All Bulgaria" referred strictly to the borders of the Theme of Bulgaria (Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro), which did not include the territory of modern-day Bulgaria (then Paristrion/Thrace).
Laonicus Chalcondyles: "The Triballians [medieval term for Serbs/Rashka] are now called Bulgarians." (P.G., vol. 159, col. 26)
George Cedrenus: Refers to the Montenegrin Prince Konstantin Bodin as "Tsar of the Bulgarians" and his army of Montenegrins and Kosovars as "Bulgarians" because they were residents of the Theme. (Georgius Cedrenus II, Bonnae, 1839, pp. 714-719)
For Byzantine writers like Theophylact of Ohrid (a Greek from Euboea), "Bulgarian" was a synonym for the Slavic language. He even refers to himself as a "Bulgarian" in a geographic sense because he resided in the Theme.
Theophylact: "St. Clement handed down to us Bulgarians everything concerning the church." (Large Life of St. Clement, Moscow Manuscript No. 818)
Despite the official Byzantine labels, people still identified ethnically. A 13th-century record by Demetrios Chomatenos identifies a man named Ivan Ierekar from the village of Vlasto (Velestovo) specifically as:
"Macedonian by birth" (по род Македонец)
Source: J. Pitra, Analecta sacra et classica, t. VI, col. 315.
Conclusion: The term "Bulgarian" in the Middle Ages was often a bureaucratic or linguistic label imposed by Byzantium, much like "Yugoslav" was in the 20th century. It didn't replace the underlying ethnic identity of the people.
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
So you really want to go into history
One of the biggest misconceptions in Balkan history is that Byzantine sources from the 10th century onward refer to "Bulgarians" in Macedonia in an ethnic sense. If you look at the primary sources, the reality is purely administrative, not ethnic.
After the fall of the first Bulgarian Kingdom in 972, Byzantium (Romania) reorganized the Balkans into Themes (military-administrative districts). To assimilate diverse groups, they renamed territories:
Theme Bulgaria (Voulgaria): Included today’s Macedonia, Serbia, and Montenegro. Consequently, all inhabitants (Macedonians and Serbs alike) were called "Bulgarians" by Byzantine officials—simply meaning "residents of the Theme Bulgaria."
Theme Macedonia: Shifted geographically to Eastern Thrace (around Adrianople/Edirne). People living there (mostly Greeks, Armenians, and Thracians) were called "Macedonians" in records, regardless of their actual roots.
Actual Bulgaria: Renamed Theme Paristrion or Moesia. Its inhabitants were called "Paristrions" or "Moesians," not Bulgarians.
The famous Emperor Basil II is called "The Macedonian," but he was ethnically Armenian/Slavic. He carries the name because he was born in the Theme of Macedonia (Thrace). Conversely, he was called "Bulgar-Slayer" not because he killed ethnic Bulgars, but because he defeated the inhabitants of the Theme of Bulgaria (Samuil’s state).
Source: “Basil I.” Encyclopædia Britannica. 2005 / Abstracts from the International Conference ARMENIAN CONSTANTINOPLE, UCLA, 2001.
Following the logic of modern Bulgarian propaganda: if Macedonians are "Bulgars" because they lived in Theme Bulgaria, then today’s Bulgarians are actually "Macedonians" because their territory was called Theme Macedonia or Paristrion at the time.
Slkotova@reddit
This is exactly why you won't join. Perfect illustration.
Solid-Scarcity-236@reddit
Works great for me, thanks for your contributions Bulgaria :)
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
it's a country that installed ancient Hellenic identiry called Vmro. and now they are ruining their own country again.
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
Included in srpski svet. I think the problem is politicians from that one
Arsimp33@reddit
Sure it's not Turkey
Fiery_Flamingo@reddit
The year is 2271.
Papua New Guinea became the 174th member state of EU.
The new EU headquarters in Canada is run by AI.
EU Governing AI vetoes Turkey’s membership again due to android rights violations.
President Erdobot RT threatens to invade Athens.
LOKLOREK@reddit
Infinite-Rate9398@reddit
Armenia 🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲???????????????????????
AcolythusLatinus@reddit
Albanian and Montenegro will be EU member states before 2030, during the 30's Serbia will join the union. The fate of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Norther Macedonia are countries that have the lowest chances of joining the union any time soon!
Adept-One-4632@reddit (OP)
And what about Turkey ?
Wait, don't ask, i think i just answered myself.
Fiery_Flamingo@reddit
caesarj12@reddit
No chance Albania enters with all the corruption scandals that are happening lately and the party in charge impeding justice.
AcolythusLatinus@reddit
I think that Albania is a lot better candidate than Bosnia & Herzegovina, corruption can be solved with better monitoring and support of the EU and the educated parts of the Albanian society. Hell you have become quite famous as a cheap place to spend your holidays by the sea, and most people say that Albania could overtake Croatia in the next decade!
Holiday-Step9703@reddit
AcolythusLatinus@reddit
caesarj12@reddit
Montenegro will get in very soon. For us, we have to wait a bit I guess cause the moron in charge decided to bail out his deputy which was indicted by the prosecutors for corruption. Basically how it works here is that all parliament members get immunity and removal needs to be voted there. Prosecution asked for jail and had the special anti-corruption judge approve it but the parliament voted no.
Separate-Date-6518@reddit
Either Albania or Montenegro
Elmalukat@reddit
Montenegro then Albania
Separate-Date-6518@reddit
Most probably
Elmalukat@reddit
It is not even a question North Montenegro)”(congratulations) then Albania
ballzstreetwets@reddit
US
BarnaclePotential132@reddit
Why i cant i choose "none"? Because its none.
True-Blacksmith4235@reddit
Why are you even here to choose?
AstropathicRelay@reddit
They will let Montenegro in just to show that the expansion is not entirely dead so that local pro eu political actors dont start losing political ground too rapidly and risk geopolitical realignment with parties that are not so pro eu . That said their accession is by no means guaranteed . Its the easiest economy / size of state to swallow than any of the other bigger countries with some of their internal dynamics that EU would consider problematic.
Its a strategic decision and if I was a EU bureaucrat I would make sure they join as soon as possible. A new fresh carrot would prove to be quite useful.
Hefty_Jaguar4305@reddit
I think that countries with a high percentage of Muslim populations, such as Turkey, Albania, Bosnia, and Kosovo, won't be admitted to the EU so quickly. It doesn't matter whether these are only cultural Muslims, non-practicing Muslims, etc. It's simply a matter of principle. EU countries associate Turkey, Albania, Bosnia, and Kosovo with a predominantly Muslim population.
Shaolinpower2@reddit
I said Albania, because i thought Montenegro was already in EU.
podivljali_vepar@reddit
Montenegro for sure, Albania probably not before 2030. and Bosnia, Serbia and N. Macedonia not before 2040 or never
Grenagar@reddit
Iceland probably
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
Also I think Romania profited much from EU the same way Bulgaria and Poland did is also large countries. This is also not only about money.
heavyMTL@reddit
Strange_Status_7690@reddit
Serbia, Bosna, N.Macedonia or Turkey will be trojan horses and the first three with nationalistic politicians that will sabotage the EU.
Only Montenegro and then possibly Albania but this process is not granted it will mean both separately to join and to have no veto rights.