A “Super El Niño” Is Coming - And It Could Trigger Global Climate Chaos
Posted by SpliceKnight@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 100 comments
Submission Statement: The super El Nino, or Godzilla El Nino that is coming has certainly perturbed some in the climate space, and even climate communicators are starting to change their tune about people who were doomers earlier, prepping for the apocalypse, stating that this thinking is pretty prescient now.
antichain@reddit
Pretty wild to hear NewScientists reporters saying that people stockpiling food and prepping for Armageddon look pretty good right now. Get that NS isn't exactly Nature-levels of prestige, but that seemed remarkably "doomer" for a mainstream science publication.
ThunderPreacha@reddit
Prep all you want, as if one can ultimately escape what is coming.
dpmcgeesr@reddit
Respectfully to all in this thread, more food is being produced than ever before. You will have no problem accessing food later this year, nor next year.
Peace..
TemporaryKey3312@reddit
You’re completely ignorant on the impact of fertilizer supply shortages on the agriculture industry due to the war in Iran.
Also, Climate issues aside… Tractors and Delivery trucks and ships and trains all have one thing in common aside from being methods of transportation. They rely on some form of processed crude or something downstream of crude.
Even electric trains require diesel engines.
You aren’t going to be able to change anyone here’s mind about blatant facts.
No matter how much food there is produced, if it’s costlier to transport, it’s costlier to buy, which means, on top of inflation reducing the buying power of the dollar, there is also the rising price of food goods that’s going to prevent a large portion of the population from getting proper meals regularly.
desocupad0@reddit
And the prolonged Russia-ukraine conflict - they had a lot of fertilizer exports as well.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
Well, given how the Iran war is impacting fertilizer trade, the Ukraine war is impacting grain exports, El Nino is impacting literally everything, and who knows what new good ideas we'll have in 2027, it is a good idea to stockpile food, even if you don't think climate change is about to end us
ThrowDeepALWAYS@reddit
Stockpile and then what happens after you run out in a year or two? Just enjoy the end times.
AtrociousMeandering@reddit
Plus there's absolutely no reason to think you'll be safe and your property rights respected when people are starving. Being normal weight or above when everyone else is skin and bones is a dangerous proposition.
I'm not sticking around for the descent, if I can't buy food at the store I'm donating what I've got to my neighbors with kids and taking steps to never be hungry again.
IfTheBingBongs@reddit
That’s noble of you but when it comes down to it I think most people will fight for every scrap of life they can get. At the end of the day it’s better to prepare so that you don’t have to starve before someone else kills you. Not that I prepare lol.
HappyAnimalCracker@reddit
Rising prices alone are reason enough. And then there are probably a dozen additional solid reasons beyond what you already mentioned.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
Exactly. One of the best things you can do, if you have some storage space and disposable income is to stock up on food, buy a freeze-drier and create a big stockpile.
Some people prep enough for more than a decade, which you could also do, but settling for something more portable if you think you may be forced to move away from home
_rihter@reddit
Or you can learn the skill of borrowing food from certain places without making an explicit promise when you are supposed to return it.
SpliceKnight@reddit (OP)
Well, the right are full on accelerationists, and the left are hypocritical idealists. Neither are going to address the problem really.
Furseal469@reddit
I missed this one. Do you have a link please?
DurantulaMan@reddit
It's in the post.
Zuljo@reddit
Socialism or extinction. Only a fundamental reorganizing of society, a new mode of production based around human need and not profit, and the full unleashing of humanity's intellectual and productive capacities can fix things.
We could have Star Trek (socialism) or we could Mad Max (capitalism).
duncansmydog@reddit
We chose capitalism way back in 2000. Electing Bush has always felt like our collective decision to party this thing out in ignorant bliss for as long as possible.
desocupad0@reddit
You always were under a dictatorship. The parties are exactly the same with the same lobby (corrupted interested).
In fact corruption got the "lobby" a word that is just a mask.
anothernic@reddit
The Supreme Court chose Bush in 2000 by stopping a recount, aided by Jeb as Gov. of Florida and 61k ballots whoopsied.
desocupad0@reddit
Mad max might be optimistic - no vehicles, leather jackets or hair stylists.
OkTaste2073@reddit
Yes solution make the world a giant north korea
Zuljo@reddit
An NPC AI bot, on my comment? Incredible.
OkTaste2073@reddit
Socialism doesent functions you just need to see countries like cuba venezuela the ex soviet union and yes north korea
8BD0@reddit
If we get this super el Nino Australia is super fucked, our last el Nino caused the 2019-2020 bushfires which devastated the country, so much of Australia was burning the smoke travelled across the ocean to New Zealand and beyond, 3 billion animals died, 24 million hectares of land burned
desocupad0@reddit
There are a lot of fucked small countries an islands already. Mainstream media just doesn't talk about it.
PermaDerpFace@reddit
Similar here in Canada, a thousand people died in my province just from the heat
Coco_Cannibal@reddit
Lytton reaching 50°C and just going up into flames, I'm German and remember it like yesterday.
Really put "extremes" into perspective.
PermaDerpFace@reddit
I'll never forget, I was deathly ill with covid and putting sheets up on the windows to block the sun. Really was the year from hell.
unluckid21@reddit
Tragedy of the commons. We're rushing headlong into a humanity extinction event, and no one is bothered by it.
desocupad0@reddit
C'mon we all are mildly annoyed online.
FYATWB@reddit
Anyone else see the exact sequence of events that "filter" out humanity and an approximate timeline, but don't feel like talking about it because there's 0% of solving the problems now so it's better that most people don't understand what's happening?
StarlightLifter@reddit
Most “environmentalists” aka people casually concerned with climate change as if it were as consequential as the next decision on abortion or tariffs etc, do not want to hear how actually fucking bad it is. Doing so would challenge the bedrock of the way they view their lives and lifestyles.
Then people right of the aforementioned literally do not believe the threat even exists.
At this point I just keep my head down, keep sharpening my preparations as it relates to skills, resources, etc.
Previous-Pomelo-7721@reddit
The people who don’t believe it exists are going to have severe psychological crises as it plays out, it’s going to be really awful but especially for them.
jadelink88@reddit
I suspect most of them have a 'wrath of god' mental script put there by bible classes that will satisfy them as an explanation.
Expect lots of metaphorical self flagellation and calls for witch burning.
IGnuGnat@reddit
They always seem to come up with some kind of alternate reality which allows them to continue their delusion.
"This weather isn't that bad, it's just normal weather but if it is that bad it's because they are controlling the weather and they are doing this on purpose so changing our habits won't make any difference"
Then right after they come up with the justification, some mainstream news comes out that somehow suggests that their delusion might be actually a real possibility to some degree. So I've kind of learned to just shut up, even though bullshit is bullshit. Speaking up just ends up with the old wrassle in the mud and we all know how that ends
explain_that_shit@reddit
Yeah there’s something incredibly maddening about, when people are confronted incontrovertibly with the facts being slapped in their faces which they had been actively denying, them doglegging to an absurd explanation just to avoid the facts moving forward. Like, just put those people in a hole somewhere, why is our threshold for insanity so high we can’t rope those people in.
Glittering_Film_6833@reddit
'IT'S SOROS AND FIFTEEN MINUTE CITIES!'
There are people out there who still believe in fucking chemtrails. So I have little hope.
SirRosstopher@reddit
The environmentalist party in my country frequently opposes renewable energy. They support the 'idea' of it, but oppose it being built.
kingtacticool@reddit
They need us consuming until the very last second because capitalism is a fucking death cult.
DryHeatOutput@reddit
You may enjoy the Ministry Album, Moral Hygine. Their song Death Cult is a knee slapper.
Good_Stick_5636@reddit
Exactly this situation. To my estimate, chances"of solving problems" are 0.00000000001% (the number of zeros is not random here)
mooky1977@reddit
Most people I've tried talking to about how bad things are, boe, super el Nino , climate change being worse than were being told by mainstream media, etc, either glaze over or look at me with the "your certifiably crazy" look.
We're fucked.
afksports@reddit
What's your rough timeline
FamiliarFly4377@reddit
Better they do understand. So we can at least take revenge before we die
No-Cost-1764@reddit
Enjoy yourself, it’s later than you think
sodook@reddit
Yes! I kinda past the stage of my life where I valued getting tattoos, but I've been thinking about getting this inked.
Jeffformayor@reddit
This line hits extremely hard. Will be using it until the cataclysm
Fight4potatoes@reddit
Real talk, no bullshit: I know so much of climate change is already irreversible, but if the world came together today and changed… could we make an impact and survive? Not just survive, but thrive?
s0cks_nz@reddit
Unless we figure out a way to meaningfully draw down atmospheric co2 then probably not.
11711510111411009710@reddit
What if we siphon carbon out of the air into tubes that we launch into the moon
IfTheBingBongs@reddit
Unfortunately the moon tubes run on fossil fuels.
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
Hansen says 10C equilibrium temperature rise, humans don’t survive that
mediandude@reddit
Humans can survive 10K rise, but our civilisation probably won't.
MariaValkyrie@reddit
Neither will they survive the humidity that temperature rise will bring to the poles.
SquirrelAkl@reddit
Hansen is the most doomerist of scientists though, and there are significant uncertainties in the modelling, so this isn’t a given
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
The EEI is now 12 Hiroshimas per second, the climate is in runaway. It only gets hotter from here there is no stopping it. Hansen has been on the money with all his predictions, it’s the moderates who are continually wrong
Beifong333@reddit
Precisely
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
We're done at 3C. Cooked.
RelativePea8217@reddit
We'd have to have a legitimate conversation about overpopulation and leftists will never talk about it.
Electrical-Effect-62@reddit
What does that have to do with left or right? We're talking greedy rich fucks vs. You, me and every other person on the planet that isn't a sociopath with a ridiculous amount of weath/power. It's too late anyway. They won its game over. The time of tribal communities and living with nature is SO long gone
HansProleman@reddit
I think the best we could do is to try and act as good stewards of the planet (for once). Make sure our shit won't fall apart in a damaging way after large-scale logistics fall apart etc.
halcyonmaus@reddit
'If your house is on fire, the situation is dire. If your house has already burned to the ground...the situation's over.'
Kaining@reddit
How do we come together ?
It's simple math but we're 8+ billions, 100 years ago we were 2B. That means there's 2 time more human than there was people a 100 years ago that are just below the average IQ.
So how do we fix what's broken while keeping stupid people in check. As in, stupid according to the 5 laws of stupidity. https://bonpote.com/en/the-5-basic-laws-of-human-stupidity/
The plan fail at step one, and we don't really have a plan that's "humane" starting at step 2 anyway.
SirRosstopher@reddit
I remember a line from some BBC documentary I saw a few years back that said even if we stopped producing carbon tomorrow the greenhouse effect from stuff already in the atmosphere will continue to warm for the next 100 years.
Uncommented-Code@reddit
Lol @ you asking for real talk and no bullshit and getting mostly bullshit snark replies.
I personally have no idea what we might be able to do if we came together. I think it'd be likely we'd find solutions to even counteract tipping points, e.g., with geoengineering. Given global cooperation, that might finally be a viable strategy.
JamesRawles@reddit
Sure, 30 years ago.
CannyGardener@reddit
Heard this in Toby's voice.
Admirable_Advice8831@reddit
If, if, if...
Perverse_Shamurai@reddit
We can do a lot of things. Regarding warming, the CO2(e) reduction will take a long long time so that's not really the tool we have for urgent measures, but the other option is the albedo. I see a lot of talk about "stupid options" like starting the sulfur again in the shipping or airplane based brightening, but actually what could be reasonable would be albedo brightening between the tropics of cancer and capricorn. Here is a youtube video (probably most important youtube video there is, with a whopping 7500 views) which goes into it and suggest to do it a bit more intelligently (shifting the areas based on time of year): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktcWQ2vLoTI&list=PL9CYC40exff9CNTO2TxwFYCdaMEr_mMNw&index=72
Sol_Infra@reddit
Sure, but the shareholders might lose 0.25% of their stock value. It's just not economically feasible.
ChosenSloth@reddit
Even if the whole world unified to face this crisis, at this point we would only be able to stop doing more damage. The damage done at this point will affect us far into the future and the planet will become unable to sustain its current population either way.
ShyElf@reddit
2023 only looks unusually big because the Earth is getting warmer, which makes it easier to get the hottest temperatures. Compare the RONI, SSTs of the Nino 3.4 region minus the 20S-20N average. By that index, the largest El Ninos since 1950 in order by highest monthly average are 1983: 2.69C, 2015: 2.48, 1998: 2.44 1973: 2.41, 1992: 2.39, 1958: 2.31, 1965: 2.12. 2023 was 16th at 1.59C. We can go a whole degree C hotter than 2023.
mediandude@reddit
This could even go to 3.0C.
TheGreatNemoNobody@reddit
El Hombre 😎
paulovitorfb@reddit
We'll all die but not without a chuckle, well done!
Dapper_Succotash9826@reddit
El Muchacho 😂
Ok-Cupcake-9822@reddit
Goddammit, take my upvote for making me chuckle.
SavingsDimensions74@reddit
Obligatory Newsroom interview (satire, except it’s actually accurate)
https://youtu.be/pNYp6oc37ds?si=6cqFr7jjryuopAdL
Xenu4President@reddit
One of my students told me today that he doesn’t believe in climate change. They are working on a research project to debunk climate myths. If he follows my instructions and paid attention during my factchecking and cognitive biases lessons, that answer should change. We will see.
IGnuGnat@reddit
I think it would be worthwhile if you came back and made a post on the results however your student proceeds.
If he changes his mind, we get a glimpse into how we might go about changing minds. If he refuses to change his mind, maybe we get a glimpse into how people clutch onto their delusions
voidsong@reddit
None of that is new info. Same thing has been happening for 40 years.
It all comes down to feelings. Do they want to face the truth, or do they want an out? That's literally it.
IGnuGnat@reddit
This is true, but in this scenario we are discussing specifically students who are enrolled in climate related classes.
My operating assumption has sort of been that each generation is more aware of these sorts of issues; at least I would like to believe it, because these threats are more immediate with each generation. Pretty much up until now it has been kind of possible to look at these problems as "Future Problems". Problems which do not impact ME they are a problem for future people.
It's becoming increasingly clear that this is no longer a valid perspective.
So the question to my mind is: Does the immediacy of the problem change the equation? and it is one thing to discuss a person with "feelings" who is not studying climate change, and a different thing to discuss a student with feelings who IS studying climate change, especially today.
Yes, it is still about feelings but the machinations of denial must be becoming wild mental gyrations. I would like to inspect the process in detail. I guess, it won't change anything but I find this kind of denial fascinating, especially in the face of a direct existential threat. There is a sort of convenience about believing that there is enough time, it's not a personal threat, and so it becomes a kind of matter of inconvenience. It seems to me that denial is going to become increasingly inconvenient and increasingly those in denial will face consequences, imo
voidsong@reddit
When i got my degree in environmental science just a few years ago, there were plenty of kids there huffing hopium. They either think it's just how things are, or they said we would come up with some technology to fix it (magical thinking). These were kids who should know better.
And it's easier for us older to people to go "time shave changed, surely the children have noticed!" because we have the luxury of several decades to look back on. But the kids, they've been paying attention for the last 10 years at most, they just don't have the before and after shot like we do. They just think this is how it is.
I know you are trying to be hopeful, but i assure you, education doesn't enter this equation. It's purely an emotional issue of "do i want to face this horrible truth or not".
IGnuGnat@reddit
I admit I'm starting to get a little bit older but when I was a young lad seeking higher education, it was generally understood that part of the reason for education was to teach you how to learn, and how to create a logical framework for decision making that would help to reduce the influence of emotions over decisions to some degree, or that's how I thought of it. I never did finish university
The point is that I thought that was the point of the education, to some degree
voidsong@reddit
It helps for sure, but it's clearly not enough for everyone.
HardNut420@reddit
You could just look at Data like wow it's so hot a humid now I wonder if it was like this 40 years ago what do you mean we used to have snow
cjbagwan@reddit
Let us know
kingtacticool@reddit
The last el Nino we had we saw hurricane Dorian (which would have been a solid cat 6 hurricane if the scale went up that far) and a bouy in the Atlantic off south Florida read 101.3F three feet below the surface.
And that was a "normal" el nino
ThunderPreacha@reddit
A Chinese buoy, floating cheap crap...
:S
kingtacticool@reddit
What?
Ok_Repeat_1995@reddit
For years, I've found it very important to hold back from throwing my hands up and calling it. I had a lot of mini moments where I was close. When it comes to climate change and the collapse, someone would have to know forsure before saying anything because usually nothing ever big happens and people just disregard us as non serious, alarmist or unscientific and makes us look bad.
Well, I'm calling it, and who cares about what some random person like me should say what other people should think, but im just saying this actually the beginning of the result part of the collapse. This will change the world for good, it'll change the way how people look at nature and weather and its gonna freak a lot of people out, even scientists are going to see things that they did not expect would happen in climate change, and for the world and regular people, chaos is a good way to describe it. While I am not expecting immediate collapse unless it triggers nuclear war. Climate change will finally enter the focus of a lot of minds and it wont be pretty, there will be a lot of people reacting the wrong way. 2026 and 2027 were the years of big change anyways, with Ai, the expected economic crisis, the shift in US politics and the end of the Trump era.. there just has to be the worst El Niño of all time happening too. Just look on Climate Reanalyzer, goto Sea Temperatures, goto drop menu and click Niño... look at that spike!
FatMax1492@reddit
scary
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
The doomers were early and correct
HappyAnimalCracker@reddit
Saturn: “Venus, Venus, Venus!”
Tatltuaekeeper@reddit
Okay, add it to the list.
Unlikely-Program-827@reddit
Is it confirmed cause I heard it was a 1 and 4 chance of it being “super”? Not sure tho
Angry-Pepega@reddit
Inb4 "probability is now higher than anticipated"
IKillZombies4Cash@reddit
With a BOE just for fun too
m0loch@reddit
As if we're not already experiencing global climate chaos.
stillsmallacts@reddit
I'm trying to go green as much as possible. I've had solar panels installed in my home a couple of years ago. I believe most of us are doing our part in some small ways, but climate change is a systemic issue. In for us to make some real changes, something has to be done at its very core.