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Russian economy is faltering despite oil windfall, Sweden warns

Posted by Firecracker048@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 81 comments

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ibrown39@reddit

It seems like Western countries treat Russia like they do their highways: *Just one more lane/sanction bro, I promise this time it'll all be solved.* I'm not saying it has no impact but I've been hearing how on the ropes the country (and similar sanction facing countries are for that matter) is my whole life but it would appear it's never he case. I mean, RU is pretty well adapted to them at this point. If anything I would imagine it would be worse if they suddenly weren't, wanted to catch up and took out large loans from the IMF and etc, and only when/if they're grossly indebted but not pariah'd enough that they can still depend on (and largely leveraged to truly globalized, free trade) that they actually feel economic pressure. That's assuming the current regime would even want to be that integrated again, that quickly. The the lack of isolation could make the populace exert more pressure at least because things would change from - We can't *get* stuff to -We can't *afford* stuff Idk, just an observation.
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Stix147@reddit

>Just one more lane/sanction bro, I promise this time it'll all be solved. >I mean, RU is pretty well adapted to them at this point These two points are related, as more sanctions are needed as Russia adapts, or tries to adapt, the new restrictions. Sanctions were never supposed to work over night and have a quick and catastrophic effect, this is just a popular misconception that refuses to go away. The point of sanctions is to make it more and more difficult for Russia to wage its war and it has had a big impact so far, the fact that Russia has had to shift a peace time economy into wartime production more and more every year is indicative. They can circumvent measures, such as purchasing components through third party countries, but that will mean lower supply and higher prices, and new sanctions get put into place to try to prevent this. Energy sanctions had a huge effect too with prices per barrel plunging to $35 for Urals crude at one point, and Russia blew through their projected budget deficit for this whole year in just the first quarter. Unfortunately oil prices have spiked after the Iran war, but Ukraine is counteracting this through increased hits on their oil infrastructure. >I would imagine it would be worse if they suddenly weren't, wanted to catch up and took out large loans from the IMF It's actually more simple than any of this, since up to 40% of their industrial growth is due to said wartime production, simply going back to "normal" would result in the GDP contracting and entering a recession, the artificial demand that now keeps the economy afloat will vanish, you can see this warning constantly in the Russian newspapers, the market which employs so many people to work in defense would need to have huge layoffs, lowering the interests rates which have been high to fight inflation will result in a devaluation of the ruble, etc. The Russian economy is in trouble regardless of whether they continue the war or not.
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MrDemonRush@reddit

The situation has been deteriorating for quite a while, small and medium sized business has been close to dead there due to banks not giving loans that aren't highway robbery. Social funds has been drying out as well, Russian Social Fund(combo of their previously existing agencies that were merged in 2023) has reported having to place 30% of all of their reserve funds to cover loans, which doesn't bode well for regime since retired people are their most loyal voters, and their pensions are at risk in the next few years. Things are getting worse, and sanctions do work(people claiming otherwise are just buying into external propaganda, there are a lot of things you can't reliably source under them). Not to mention that Russia can't reach any goals right now without a draft, which isn't exactly something you can do without burning a whole lot of money.
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historicusXIII@reddit

> Not to mention that Russia can't reach any goals right now without a draft, which isn't exactly something you can do without burning a whole lot of money. If anything, a draft could end up cheaper. Now Russia has to pay large sums of money to get volunteers to go fight in Ukraine. They would be better of if they could just force conscripts to go fight for minimum wage. The reason they didn't do that so far is because it would be a very impopular decision (but one that looks more and more necessary).
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MrDemonRush@reddit

Russia doesn't have the equipment to make a draft anything but a meatwave, many things that are considered default equipment are in very limited supply, due to decades of corruption in the army. There are like 15 of Shoigu's assistants that are under investigation/arrested/convicted for corruption, and many of them embezzled funds even for the most basic stuff. The strategy so far was to make the war something unimportant for the general pop, not show everyone that they can throw people in the grinder. They still do, but that happens for money and/or with people nobody cares about.
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Eziekel13@reddit

This has been posted every other day since the invasion of Crimea…11 years ago Let me know when Russia runs out of resources and opec shifts western…
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Heisan@reddit

The article says "faltering", not collapse
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KronusTempus@reddit

What European economy isn’t “faltering” right now? Merz has been talking about how they can’t afford the welfare state anymore, a similar discussion is taking place in the Scandinavian countries, and none of these countries are even at war.
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Turgius_Lupus@reddit

They are paying for one though.
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KronusTempus@reddit

Am I supposed to feel bad for Germany given that they’ve chosen not to prioritize their own people? Sounds like some distant country with a rich history of overthrowing governments and provoking revolutions stated in 2008 that Ukraine should join NATO to the horror of both the Europeans and Russians, and then proceeded to abandon them to the chaos….no idea what country that could be…
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Advanced-Net-8119@reddit

that does not give justification for the russian invasion
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cmrd_msr@reddit

This directly led to the Russian invasion. Searching for who's right and who's wrong is pointless. We should be looking for cause and effect.
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Advanced-Net-8119@reddit

I interpreted his comment as him trying to defend the invasion
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Asjutton@reddit

No, haha. Exactly the opposite. It's a shit situation and ofc you need to find WHO was responsible. Not what. How braindead are you haha. It's not a theoretical question, it's very much a real decision with real consequences.
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loggy_sci@reddit

Love it when pro-Russians blame Europeans for Russias war because they said something about NATO. Most dishonest agenda posters here. Kronus, Kith, Bo_gie, Haggerton. Every single time there is a thread about Russia that is negative this gang of agenda posters shows up to change the subject or post Kremlin propaganda slop.
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KronusTempus@reddit

You’re so far up Uncle Sam’s asshole that everything is “fake news” and propaganda to you. What I said is a very well known fact and is commonly cited by both Europeans and Americans. But I guess Merkel was also a Russian spy, isn’t that right goy boy?
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loggy_sci@reddit

Hit dogs holler. You can save your stupid vapid goy insults, you sound terminally online and desperate.
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potato_analyst@reddit

So much bullshit happening around the world all because of some meddling country that just can't keep their fingers out of everyone's business.
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Heisan@reddit

My vatnik friend, it isn't even close to the dump that the Russian economy is in.
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no_soy_livb@reddit

I still remember when in 2022 and 2023 a western media was so confident Russia would collapse due to sanctions. And I don't even support Russia. Now they changed their narrative to "faltering" and "is in trouble"
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pimmen89@reddit

Yeah, the experts underestimated how much would be diverted to the war economy and deficit spending. What’s the problem with ”changing their narrative” if the fact is that Russia’s economy is faltering? Would it be better if the experts didn’t change their predictions?
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BurialA12@reddit

It's LeviOsa, not LevioSA!
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TheBigOof96@reddit

Literally this month Putin himself disclosed that Russia's GDP shrank by 1.8% in January and February combined, that's some fascinating levels of wishful thinking, eh?
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

Weak oil revenue, situation that now changed thanks to the war in ME that your country offered their land and airspace to support 
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milton117@reddit

This isn't the own you think it is. Can you point Lithuania on a map? It's nowhere near the ME or even on the way. If his flair is UK it'd be a different story.
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

Yes I can, it's a bit on the south were I live. You however, seems disinformed of what I'm talking about. Maybe ignorant, or just limited. Here https://united24media.com/latest-news/lithuania-considers-opening-airspace-and-bases-for-us-operations-against-iran-16591
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milton117@reddit

Will you also dunk on someone with a Vanuatu flair if Vanuatu says the US can use their airfield if they want?
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

Yes
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milton117@reddit

That's really stupid but you do you I guess
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

No more stupid than Lithuanians praising a war the is benefiting their neighbour that their fear so much
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no_soy_livb@reddit

Don't forget to thank Trump for reversing the trend.
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ShowBoobsPls@reddit

Ukraine is keeping sure they have trouble exporting oil and benefitting from it.
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

https://energyandcleanair.org/march-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ The only thing Ukraine is accomplishing is send south Finland some presents as gift
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skinlo@reddit

And if Ukraine hadn't damaged the facilities?
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

Would you dare put a remindme for Q2 semester and see the results?
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skinlo@reddit

Of what? What we're saying is that Russian numbers would be higher if Ukraine wasn't bombing their facilities. What the numbers are in Q2/3 is not relevant.
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

Ukraine was only able to hit the way they did because they used the Baltic's airspace. And while doing so, several drone fell around there and Finland. Backstage, that's not acceptable. Wil Ukraine keep hitting the Baltic ports they were they did? 
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skinlo@reddit

Again, irrelevant. >Backstage, that's not acceptable. Finland can decide that.
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

It is relevant. When I said backstage, it is because backstage we already know that Ukraine cannot repeat the use of NATO airspace to attack Russia. If they do, Russia is on the right to shot any flying thing down from Belarus. And what will the Baltic's do if Russia start doing that? Call US for help?
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ShowBoobsPls@reddit

What do you mean? They clearly prevented Russia from increasing their revenue because of the higher Oil prices, lol
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_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit

Hurting yes. Crippling? No. And unless Ukraine do it again, and I doubt they will since they were only able to do so by using Baltic's airspace, revenue will keep increasing.
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FullConfection3260@reddit

GDP isn’t the end all be all indicator of growth.
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ParagonRenegade@reddit

Remember to thank Trump for spiking the oil price.
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bippos@reddit

War economy’s works until they don’t, the economy is basically running on war spending and higher wages as a result of the labour market being being depleted
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haggerton@reddit

6%GDP is only "war economy" in Western propaganda. Reminder that NATO set a peacetime target of 5% m, and all major powers in WW2 ran on 30-35%. Ukraine is running over that.
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b0_ogie@reddit

People just don't want to figure it out. The data is quite deceptive if you don't understand what and why. The current drop is easily explained. This year, there were 3 more days off in February and January than last year. One non-working day is about 0.5% of annual GDP. Total 1.5% of GDP. But this year there will be fewer days off in other months. By the end of the year, the number of working days will be the same, and this drop will be compensated. Another thing is that a loss of 0.3% is a net recession. In some months, the growth will be lower, in some higher. By the end of the year, GDP growth will be about the same as the IMF predicts - 1%. High growth rates will resume only when the Central Bank significantly reduces the interest rate, and about 1.5 million people will return from the war.
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bippos@reddit

Doubtful that those 1.5 million will have work to return too, Russia is having a war economy labour resources etc is being diverted from civilian needs to military needs making the military sector outperform the civilian one
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b0_ogie@reddit

There are currently 6 million migrant workers in Russia, and unemployment is about 2% (this is lower than normal unemployment caused by people changing jobs and not working at the time of the job change).These people will have jobs, moreover, they are needed in the economy.
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bippos@reddit

Yes there is a shortage of workers because of the massive build up of the military sector and requirement. If the war ends it’s very doubtful the Sam factories will be active leading to layoffs
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b0_ogie@reddit

Military factories will not stop after the war for another 10 years, there will simply be a gradual decrease in production rates and budget cuts. There will be a gradual decrease in factory workload. After the war, need to restore the number of shells, air defense missiles, manufacture millions of drones and thousands of cruise missiles. Also, immediately after the war, the transition to new production models of tanks and armored vehicles will begin, taking into account the realities of the drone war. The end of the war does not mean a shutdown of the economy. The main point is that payments to soldiers will be reduced immediately and their number will gradually decrease. Military salaries alone are 3% of GDP. This is a huge amount of money released for the economy while increasing the labor market.The end of the war will immediately ensure 3-4% annual GDP growth.
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bippos@reddit

That’s highly unlikely and rather delusional take on the economic situation and even more so if Russia doesn’t even manage to take Ukraine/eastern Ukraine. Russia had 8 years to modernise or replace suff but didn’t and they definitely not gonna have this insane production rate when they already are having economic issues
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b0_ogie@reddit

Russia has done a lot of things and still has a lot to do. Moreover, Russia is a developing economy, not a developed one. The war only halted development. After the end of the war, the Russian economy will double within 20-25 years, if it had not been for the war, this would have happened earlier. These are not "optimistic" estimates and nonsense, this is literally an economic reality. This will happen to all developing world economies.
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bippos@reddit

GDP before the war was terrible as well? Even more so before the pandemic as well and to think it will double is delusional when you consider the demographic collapse and sanctions
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big_cock_lach@reddit

So Russia has doubled military spending and you’re selling that as a small increase? That’s also only considering government spending, and not private contributions such as donations from the oligarchs.
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SamuelClemmens@reddit

Its spending at the level of America in 1990, or 1/3rd-1/6th of what it was spending in 1990. Russia is nowhere near collapse. What it is, is getting near having to get serious. And if a dictatorship has to get serious about a war, and involve the regular people in it? Then that dictator tends to have a short lifespan if he doesn't win big, fast, and easily. Russia is nowhere near defeat, but Putin may soon be taking a one way trip back out behind the woodshed.
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big_cock_lach@reddit

I’m not saying it’s anywhere near collapse? I’m just saying it’s silly to say they aren’t spending much more on the military when they’ve doubled reported spending (Russia isn’t known for reporting things accurately) plus started tapping on the shoulders of their oligarchs for more money. They’re spending a lot more than they were and to pretend otherwise is just stupid at best and acting in bad faith at worst. This doesn’t say anything about how their economy is performing or if they’re going to collapse, although you can infer some things from it, although again a collapse would be an exaggeration. In reality, their economy isn’t performing well, but they’re not about to collapse either.
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b0_ogie@reddit

The main part of the expenses is the payment of staff, besides, they increased the number of shifts at military factories by one. But the transition of civilian industry to military needs did not happen - therefore, it is not true to say that the transition to a military economy was carried out. I'm not downplaying spending, I'm just saying that it's not right to call it a war economy. Russia has not reduced the main budget expenditures, they have not changed, except that they are indexed a little less annually. Russia has increased its budget by introducing additional taxes on profits and excise taxes from the oil and gas sector (and taking into account rising prices, even with a decrease in the number of exports, profits are higher than pre-war ones), the government is also credited from central bank and in 2026 increased VAT from 20 to 22%. It didn't really affect ordinary people, but every year the negative impact will be more and more.
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Apprehensive_Emu9240@reddit

That's because the Russians have been mobilizing private sector money for the war as well. Russian banks for instance are not allowed to refuse loans to weapons manufacturing and it's a public secret that the Russian Authorities have been forcing the oligarchs to donate their money to the war efforts. Like it or not these are war economy measures. Furthermore production capacity numbers have shown that spending more money wouldn't really do the Russian economy any good anyway. Their labor market is too tight. It wouldn't matter if they threw more money at it if they don't have the labor available to make a difference. During WWII the European powers didn't have that shortfall.
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Headlikeagnoll@reddit

I mean, the economy is faltering covers a pretty wide spread of conditions from the basic ability to continue to supply the war is in question, to there is a possibility of a slight lowering of quality of life in either the near or long term. The hard thing with Russia is that they have fortified their economic channels already to run around sanctions for decades. So there is a resilience there, even if those channels are more inefficient.
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BigPapaSlut@reddit

Economic rival says Russian economy is faltering while Russians are swimming in oil exports, luxury cars, and the cheapest car on the road is a Mercedes G-Wagon. The horror, I say!
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milton117@reddit

I see you've never been to Russia.
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Eexoduis@reddit

Expect comments about “the West claims Russia/China are failing every day and they haven’t!”. There absolutely exists sensationalist content in that regard but it’s not an excuse to dismiss any and all analysis of Eastern societies/economies, especially those that don’t make grandiose predictions of failure. The Russian economy is currently floundering. It has had a number of warning signs for a while but bad faith actors repeatedly interpret observations of the signs as claims of imminent collapse. Warning signs may mature into calamity now, 5 years later, or never. It’s not a binary. That is a false dichotomy. Russia and China are both facing catastrophic demographic collapse with no clear solution. That does not mean I am a liar if China still exists tomorrow. It means that in the present, far fewer than necessary Chinese babies are being born. The consequences of that fact will not arrive until much later, though.
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dykestryker@reddit

All nations where women are educated, employed and have access to birth control, the birth rates go below replacement. Comparing Russia and Chinese demographics also makes no sense.  The Chinese population is much younger relative to the Russuan one, not to mention China is entering an age of abundance while Russia is still recovering from the collapse of the Soviet union. If their demographics are " catastrophic " that would mean Korean and Japanese demographics have already failed. 
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bippos@reddit

Korea haven’t because migrants and young population, japan haven’t failed because old people still works because terrible pensions. Demographics are still terrible tho rural japan is dotted with dead villages
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DM_me_goth_tiddies@reddit

Based on 2026 UN data: China: median age 40.6 years South Korea: median age 46.2 years Korea is far worse of a demographic position than China or Russia imo.
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handsoapdispenser@reddit

Russia and China have much worse problems compounding the overall decrease in fertility. Russia has sent 1M men to their deaths while also inducing a lot of men to flee to avoid service. China is still hungover from the One Child Policy and the pervasive cultural preference for boys. 
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neatdude73@reddit

It's one million Russian casualties, not deaths.
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no_soy_livb@reddit

Russia hasn't sent 1M men to their deaths, this is western propaganda makes you say.
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KronusTempus@reddit

>Russia has sent 1M men to their deaths The daily “a gorillian Russians die every hour”. Cute. >inducing a lot of men to flee to avoid service. Look up how many of them are back…spoiler alert, it’s most of them.
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dykestryker@reddit

Much worse as opposed to whom? China doesn't even allow migrants to gain citizenship really. Its not like they are in desperate need of more people.
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No_Introduction_3542@reddit

China is suffering from a shrinking population problem that has no solution.
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no_soy_livb@reddit

That's not entirely true.
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goofygodzilla93@reddit

Russia and China have the same average age of 40 what are you talking about? Also China isn't entering an age of abundance. China is currently facing an increasing rise of protests due to unpaid work, factory closures and canceled real estate projects. They also have just over 4% of their population not having access to water. China is in just as bad of a place as the USA if not worse but the news makes it seem the complete opposite. Also Russia is not recovering from the collapse of the Soviet Union they have already recovered now they're collapsing again.
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dykestryker@reddit

Theres 285 million children in China alone. Thats what im talking about.  China almost has as many children currently getting k - 12 education then there are people in Russia and Mexico combined. You can't really compare them and say they are on the same trajectory. The stats dont tell you everything there. And no, Ukraine and Russia never got back to peak Soviet levels of lifestyle unfortunately abd likely wont for decades due to this war. This is not even in the same ballpark as China. Im not sure why you compare China with the U.S. either as both have their own respective problems, China though is advancing beyond the U.S. in terms of technology and societal innovation. To pretend otherwise is cope.
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goofygodzilla93@reddit

986 million Chinese are over the age of 40. That is 65% of China's population in a group that is nearing ages of not being physically able to continue manual labor. 285 million children doesn't fix the fact that in 20-40 years 65% of the population will be gone (like the majority of other countries) and the birth rate keeps going down. That's also not counting the fact that 100 million of those children are estimated to be in single parent households which don't raise fully functioning adults in the majority of countries and I have no reason to believe other wise for China. You also have to account that China is facing a housing crisis and again protests are happening for unpaid wages at an increasing rate every year. China has warned about food security risks as well which means we could see a food insecurity problem which leads to a lot of dead people. I don't want that to happen but China and America (along with a lot of other countries) are facing the same crisis's its just that you don't have freedom of speech in China but you do in America. America's problems are widely known but China, who has the same problems, aren't I wonder why. "China though is advancing beyond the U.S. in terms of technology and societal innovation" To pretend America hasn't been doing the same damn thing is cope as well. China is America's only peer to peer enemy I do agree, but China has to weather their own storms before they can do anything with us, just like we have to do the same. I believe that's why China has been so silent the past couple years while they've been removing many high up individuals in politics and the military. They know the problems they're facing and they're keeping it hush hush while trying to fix it. I'm most worried for the fact that America has ZERO politicians that are worth a damn thing and I highly doubt that changes.
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Socraman@reddit

The Soviet economy was already collapsing in the 80s and purely running budgets on oil revenue and squandering in foreign wars. The political collapse was just a consequence of such a predicament, not its cause.
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TrizzyG@reddit

>The consequences of that fact will not arrive until much later, though. Actually, the consequences simply materialize year after year gradually, sometimes so much that most dont even realize the change until they look back on what things were like 10-20 years prior.
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Pklnt@reddit

It is obvious that at some point the Russian economy won't be able to fuel the Russian military. The tricky question is how long until the Russian government decides to make sacrifices to keep it going or will they gradually scale down their expenditures. The idea that the Russian economy will collapse to the point where they'll just leave Ukraine sounds like wishful thinking. Russia might not be able to go on the offensive (almost) all-year long, but they will still have the ability to defend the territory they've captured.
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Firecracker048@reddit (OP)

Another source: https://fortune.com/2026/04/18/russia-economy-contraction-vladimir-putin-financial-crisis-warnings-iran-ukraine-war-drones-oil-exports/
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The link you have provided contains keywords for topics associated with an active conflict, and has automatically been flaired accordingly. If the flair was not updated, the link submitter MUST do so. Due to submissions regarding active conflicts generating more contrasting discussion, comments will only be available to users who have set a subreddit [user flair](https://support.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205242695-How-do-I-get-user-flair), and must strictly comply with [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/anime_titties/about/rules). Posters who change the assigned post flair without permission will be temporarily banned. Commenters who violate Reddiquette and civility rules will be summarily banned. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/anime_titties) if you have any questions or concerns.*
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