Population growth is slowing in the hottest regions of America
Posted by relianceschool@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 69 comments
As extreme heat intensifies across the United States, it's widely assumed that rising temperatures will push people to pack up and leave. But new research from Florida Atlantic University challenges that narrative, showing that heat alone isn't driving Americans away—at least not yet.
Drawing on nationwide county-level or county equivalent data within contiguous U.S. states including IRS migration records from 2020 to 2022, U.S. Census data, and climate measures from NOAA (data source) and the CDC, researchers analyzed how temperature changes influence where people move. The results reveal a more subtle dynamic: rather than forcing people out, rising heat is slowing growth in certain areas by discouraging new residents from moving in.
The findings also highlight an important dimension of climate and mobility: immobility. Rather than prompting widespread relocation, gradual climate stress may leave many people in place—either because they adapt or because financial constraints limit their ability to move. This raises the possibility that "trapped populations" could become an increasingly important feature of climate vulnerability, particularly in lower-income communities.
"The absence of strong effects today does not mean climate will remain a minor factor," said Diana Mitsova, Ph.D., co-author and chair of FAU's Department of Urban and Regional Planning. "Our findings suggest that stronger migration responses could emerge in the future, particularly as rising temperatures interact with extreme events, long-term exposure, or constraints such as housing availability and insurance markets. Potential 'tipping points' may still lie ahead."
hera-fawcett@reddit
the trapped ppls aspect is fascinating-- esp bc its happened before. there are tons of places that have had desertification and lack of climate migration due to economic circumstance. and those who cant afford to move only end up worse off.
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
The NYT wrote a good article on that last year, with this quote that'll always stick with me:
But this year, her annual home insurance premium increased to $8,312, more than doubling over the past four years.
She considered selling, but found herself in a dilemma. As insurance costs have risen, area home values have fallen, dropping by 38 percent since 2020. The roadsides around her house are dotted with for-sale signs.
“They won’t insure you,” Ms. Rojas said. “No one will buy from you. You’re kind of stuck where you are.”
That definitely won't be the last of this kind of story.
hera-fawcett@reddit
in the area where i live, redlining was prominent back in the early 20s. the effects are still profound w certain areas being poor af and mostly black (and known as 'bad') areas. most ppl send their kids to private school bc of the stigma that public school is bad (back to racism and class disparity). last yr, tornadoes blew through and just destroyed these brick houses-- ofc all in the poor black area.
these were places that already werent insurable (bc they were too close to 'abandoned' buildings--- bldgs that the wealthy multi-property owners refused to do anything w... bc its in a 'bad' area). ppl are fighting to get any sort of money to help fix shit. the area still looks like a tornado disaster zone.
theres no help. theres no way for ppl to get out. they cant afford it. the ones who owned their houses were barely affording property taxes on them (bc they work low wage jobs bc redlining and racism do still have lasting consequences). they cant afford new places or the rent costs. ig they could try being homeless in a wealthier area but lmao who is going to do that vs live in a somewhat liveable house? theyre stuck in a disaster site. and theres no fema, no state money, no city money, no media coverage, nothing.
its going to happen to a lot more ppl and a lot more places.
money, unfortunately, is king.
MidwestQueerPunkBoi@reddit
There's a reason Detroit burns every Devil's Night, re: negligent multi-property owners.
BusyBanana4205@reddit
Had a friend just move back to their home state of Ohio because they bought a house in NM years ago, woke up one morning last summer and no water came out of his faucets. Drilling deeper was expensive, and probably merely a temporary solution if the water tables go down even deeper, so he sold.
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
After air, water is the most essential resource we depend on. (Then food.) I would not feel secure living anywhere with water scarcity.
MangoDouble3259@reddit
SouthWest going have real assets water issues soon.
It going be gnarly.
MidSinglesInYourArea@reddit
I've been saying there will be legitimate political violence over water in the Southwest ever since I left there 20ish years ago. It's taken a while but I still believe it's inevitable. I'm honestly amazed no one has attacked the Saudi owned farms.
valar12@reddit
The Great Lakes don’t seem so bad in the next two decades.
SquirrelyMcNutz@reddit
Right up until everyone and their dog has the same idea.
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
There's definitely some truth to this, but people also tend to overestimate folks' ability to move to safer places. 60% of Americans live in the same state they were born in, and millions of people are tied to place due to their career, lack of financial opportunity, connections to family and friends, etc.
It's no secret that northern states are a better bet, but the ability to pick up and move across the country is a privilege not everyone enjoys. And that's if they even believe climate change is a pressing threat, which is still less than half of Americans.
HardHJ@reddit
Except aren’t they the ones having all the data centers built that is expected to take huge amounts of power and water?
DieselPunkPiranha@reddit
Blizzards in the Northeast, hurricanes in the south, dust bowl in the west. Best flee the US altogether if you can. Maybe Washington state will be okay.
Creepindeath81@reddit
Not with all the fault lines and at least 5 high threat volcanos.
JuniperJupiter4@reddit
Blizzards are a one to two day event where you just can't travel for a bit. Its not really a life altering event.
Source: am Michigander, lived through many a blizzards.
Own_Status_9463@reddit
We should never have allowed agriculture here to begin with but the republican governors had approved leases to the Saudi’s to grow alfalfa here, illegal in SA, due to their country’s water shortage but AZ has no water laws to combat it and it went unfettered for wayyyyy to long. Between that and the mass migration here since the late 90s, AZ is cooked literally and figuratively. Those cuts coming are going to devastate the state overall, the economy, home values will plummet, and everything in between. Groundwater for rural areas is depleting and nothing in place to replace it. Most of us natives know it’s coming but are financially unable to leave.
Residenthuman101@reddit
You are correct about wondering why we collectively decided to allow so much agriculture in western regions at all, but I also kind of disagree with the sentiment… when these farms were founded this country still was covered in dense trees on both sides, it had intense winters and deep snowpacks, ecosystems weren’t competing with massive sprawling suburbs. But I believe the problem with water the west is facing is not a unique one and we’ll see a lot more conversations about water shortages in the near future.
Human development is far more destructive than farms to the environment and drinking water is much harder to plan around in a governmental level during times of drought than agricultural water needs are. A farm has far less risk to life than massive cities running out of drinking water does, so it kinda makes more sense to use western land for agriculture rather than Golf courses, swimming pools, parking lots, and air conditioned homes… but i guess these were not the primary modes of civilization when these cities were founded either … so it’s hard to blame anyone from the past explicitly lol We have always been very capable of building networks of rain capture ponds, massive dams, and all sorts of contraptions like aqueducts and pipes and logistics networks for trade deals with places like Canada and Mexico for water … we even one time dreamed of building an aqueduct to one of the Great Lakes lol I’m sure our fore bearers imagined the wilderness and the soil and the water of this world to be an unending resource… but it’s not…
and yes, the republicans and corporate and foreign money in politics are more largely responsible for blocking real environmental change in the US… and yes, they’re also the primary driver behind the manipulation of the dialogue on the food we eat so that large international food companies benefit more than small local agricultural and food companies… and yes they’re also the party fighting for the “rights” of these massive international corporations to manipulate our political system with money and a voice towards the public… and yes it also seems like they are promoting the selling of our land and water rights to companies who want to export us and sell us more corn and sugar and meat and trash… yes they are also the party involved in making all kinds of deals with foreign countries to take over agricultural land, so they can frack, so they can run our factories and shipyards in toxic ways… for mountain top removal mining and for stripping our country of every other kind of natural resource this country has… maybe so they can shied themselves from being connected to how toxic these agricultural, mining, and manufacturing methods are to the world around us … and to run these businesses into bankruptcy leaving environmental disasters in their wake all around us… yes, farms are using a lot of water … and yes, human development might have been shortsighted for the west… but generations of environmental destruction and horrible land and water use policies to the environments around us are causing a worldwide crisis that I’m sure they also know about and don’t want the public to be really be cognizant of because they want us to continue to economically function like “nothing is wrong” until they have figured out an exit plan for themselves. No one wants to be responsible for footing the bill to fix the real problem: that the water tables are collapsing worldwide.
Nestle sold its water bottling operation… that’s a red flag … These massive fires aren’t random… the soils dying, the water tables go with it, maybe even the ocean too… All these fights about water bottling companies and almond farms are not just a fight about population levels or “water use policy” effecting the water in the west… our own rainforest in the north west of the US has been shrinking and drying and dying and burning thanks to human activity… roads and invasive plants and “turf grass” and farms all over the west … acres of trees stripped and replaced by large swaths of plastic houses and driveways… and all kinds of pollution such as that from agriculture… but also car tires… coal power plants… pfoas… and even the stuff we use to seed clouds with to try and save our farms (silver iodide) … all has a negative effect on the soil microbes, especially funguses that many plants depend on for nutrient and water retention. These funguses not only are vital for the very important plant and microbial life in the water and weather cycles… but also account for a large percentage of “living biomass” on the planet. All that biomass helps not only hold moisture in the body of the organisms, but also keeps the soil and air “cool” acting as a large heatsink. The shape” of networks of fungus, and its interactions with the plants and bacteria keeps soil “spongy” and capable of holding large amounts of water and vital nutrients for the survival of life on this planet. All this living biomass also slows the groundwater down, allowing ground water to find its way into all nooks and crannies in our bed rock that we depend on for well water worldwide. The temperature in areas with trees and plants is also consistently cooler thanks to plant respiration…and the funguses in the ground actually literally help drive local precipitation events with spores, keeping fresh water from ending up in the ocean… something we’re only just learning about
https://www.reddit.com/r/abovethenormnews/s/qS3j7t4CfV
Funguses harness lighting too! All these smaller cooler weather events are what drive overall stable large weather patterns we evolved to be familiar with, and the lack of soil structure from the lack of plant and fungal life will also cause more mudslides and flooding… all of which we’re seeing lately
Without these systems in place, when it does rain, the water flows downhill on the surface faster, taking more nutrients with it, dumping more and more silt and mud into water ways, acidifying the oceans and choking out fish populations in rivers. Agricultural chemicals and many other human chemicals such as pfoas act as “surfacents” too, amplifying this process of soil stripping process and also preventing bacteria and fungal colonies from reestablishing themselves … soil health is very important and not very well managed worldwide. Spreading of invasive wildlife, bugs, and funguses are responsible me for killing a number of trees in the us as well, amplifying this process even more, and this is happening on a worldwide scale as well thanks to the import and export of plants and food worldwide. The best way I’ve explained it to my kids lately is how our world used to be a big warm swamp and it took millions of years to evolve to be the amazing place we currently live, and we’re putting a ton of energy into reversing this evolution and turning it back into a giant warm swamp…
I think I prefer William Penn’s original visions for US forestry and agriculture…
https://whyy.org/articles/penns-woods/
it’s a shame his son went against his fathers wishes and clear cut the whole state of Pennsylvania, setting a precedent in early US economics that was not interested in preservationist model for natural resources or I guess “life” over “profit”
DieselPunkPiranha@reddit
Much of that applies to California, Nevada, and the entire Southwest. The entire region is developing into a new Dust Bowl and no one in power is putting a stop to it. Worse, most folks don't have small plots of land to finance their migration like last time.
Own_Status_9463@reddit
You’re not wrong, I just happen to be biased with AZ since I’m here. I can’t even put into words what fear of the coming years has on me. Like this isn’t some distant plot point in a sci-fi movie it’s within the decade. And no one in government is prepared nor gives a fuck. Corporations got theirs so we’ll be the victims of it ultimately.
DieselPunkPiranha@reddit
Tomorrowland put it into words for you.
https://youtu.be/5sZnphH7L80
RaveNdN@reddit
Soon? Already happening
Lews_There_In@reddit
Cottager_Northeast@reddit
Real science labels their units.
unknownpoltroon@reddit
ITS TOO HOT FOR SEX
ExplanationFunny@reddit
I’ve had the misfortune of visiting Phoenix on several occasions and my god, what a blight.
My partner works in tech, and is baffled every time he hears about a new semiconductor factory being built out there. I will never understand why the would take such a delicate, water hungry process and put it in the middle of the fuckin desert.
But also same goes for Florida. If you think want to move down here and then make it look exactly like the fuckin shit bucket midwestern town you moved from then stay the fuck away from Florida. Stop trying to turn our wetland into another goddamned strip mall.
MentalDisintegrat1on@reddit
Moved from Miami all the way to Alaska I can confirm Florida is hell.
The traffic in south Florida is insane 45 minutes to drive what normally took 10-15.
I'm here for family reasons ( visiting) I cannot wait to take my happy ass back to Alaska.
ExplanationFunny@reddit
I have met two other Alaskans down in Florida, the poor dears. It’s hard to imagine a more jarring move in the the US.
MentalDisintegrat1on@reddit
Went from Vegas to Miami to Alaska let me tell you acclimating was hell.
CityCareless@reddit
No offense but Florida has been nothing but strip malls anywhere that was built in the 60’s and later.
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
wynveen@reddit
What’s the point of this?
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Showing normal people what mods see, this post... was originally deleted / removed by reddit.
hera-fawcett@reddit
its smart- also shows what sort of criteria the system flags to remove.
an acct w 3k karma, 150ish contributions, thats 2mo old apparently qualifies as spammer/potential rulebreaker.
wynveen@reddit
That’s kind of silly if that’s the criteria for removal.
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Theres a quality score each account gets, theres a subreddit that shows you... i forget the name.
edwardphonehands@reddit
If you think of it. Please share
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1spemse/comment/oh1pr9b
DieselPunkPiranha@reddit
/r/WhatIsMyCQS/
hera-fawcett@reddit
i wouldnt argue that it isnt. but its not like reddits an unbias unbought agenda free site.
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
Thank you for approving my post! I'm definitely not a bot, but my account is fairly new and that seems to trigger spam filters on a lot of subs. (I also use a VPN, which doesn't help either.)
Reddit's filter have been getting pretty intense over the past few years, lots of accounts have been banned and suspended for non-TOS violations, or with no reason given at all.
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Eh, we're trying to keep the content decent quality. You'd be shocked at what gets submitted now-a-days.
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
I know it's not feasible to manually screen content at this scale, but the automated filters are barely better than a coin toss at this point.
No_Possible_7108@reddit
Based mod
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
NoTerm3078@reddit
"Someone likely to break rules"
When you see this, is it commonly true or untrue in your experience?
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Its hard to gauge, reddit deletes a TON of content, much on both sides.
If the account is old, I think its been alright. But the number of young accounts getting caught up in it lately... has been pretty extreme imo.
It really goes after Links, curse words, key words, anything that can be considered advertising even if its just an opinion. . . the bad part is the user doesn't know to what extent they're being censored. Like this post, I had to dig it out a moderator log just to bring it up.
Like, it takes 2 to 3 minutes for Reddit to process and delete things, I've seen things get swarm upvoted and deleted... as if the commenter has a small army of bots boosting the initial score which I think may be 50 cent army or similar like the Iran bots and accounts in the last 2-3 months pushing their side. (remember their public doesn't have internet).
IMO though.... just a huge mess, and it'd take something fairly serious to sort through it in a way thats fair for everyone. It is really becoming a serious issue with "whats real" as sentiment drives everything from markets to politics. Thats where the bots, AI, misinformation and deception becomes incredibly dangerous as they SIGNIFICANTLY MAGNIFY AND MULTIPLY a single user or side, be it real / genuine or not. Take it farther with downvoting power... that can double again to then suppress. All that on top of what the site curates... and the sources even below that.... Like YouTube. Show a video of terrible things happening, it has to make it through a gauntlet just to add to evidence for the average person to consider. Like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres The videos.... so many videos scrubbed and lost that did make it online... thousands never made it. . .and really, these are forgotten... twisted around... we get lego rap videos about 160 kids dead when multiples of that were killed by their own just a month prior. . . again... a terrible mess... with so much shrouded from us.
l30@reddit
Where can you see this if you're not a mod?
NoTerm3078@reddit
/r/WhatIsMyCQS/
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
AHH... That was the sub!
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
metalreflectslime@reddit
Are you on iOS or Android?
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Uhh, neither on that picture.
4Yk9gop@reddit
Why is the temp so hotter around the lake in WI, IL and WI? I would assume the lakes would moderate temps, no?
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
Used to moderate temps. Now a lot of our smaller lakes are overrun with toxic algae. It is...not. good.
Basically water lags temps wise, but once it heats up it holds a LOT more energy than land can
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
Honestly, I'm not sure what to make of those maps; everything I've seen for projected warming shows a pretty clear trend of higher warming towards higher latitudes, with a little relief due to altitude (Appalachian/Rocky Mountains).
This map is showing big pockets of heat increases in the Southwest, Florida, Northeast, and Great Lakes. I image-searched temperature anomaly maps and this is the only one showing those trends, so I might dig into this further.
melympia@reddit
Uhm. Your link of "trapped populations" sends me straight to an article about the need to save small islands from rising sea levels - which is literally impossible, considering that when (not if) the antarctic ice sheet melts, we're looking at 60 meters (200 feet) of sea level rise. You simply cannot build walls high enough to keep back the sea that much.
relianceschool@reddit (OP)
That link just pasted over from the article, I agree it's not the most relevant. For Americans, I believe the insurance crisis is a more primary driver for people getting stuck in place.
Buelltastic@reddit
Trump said we are the hottest country now!
Boobpocket@reddit
Its hard to fuck when you're dehydrated.
CuteLead9020@reddit
Just reluctantly moved from MN to TX for a job 1 month ago. Liking it more than I thought I would. Guess we’ll see what I’m saying come summer 😂
ICQME@reddit
What's with Connecticut?
Vladmerius@reddit
I mean it should slow. It should stop. It's hubris to try to live in uninhabitable places. We need to return to our roots in that regard and start having population centers be mostly near large water sources.
DieselPunkPiranha@reddit
Unfortunately, those who do are finding their local water siphoned away for biodiesel, Nestle, and AI/data centers.
cjp2010@reddit
Good everyone move to northeast Ohio where I live and that will free up more sports in Arizona where I plan on moving in a couple years.
Own_Status_9463@reddit
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/colorado-river-water-cuts-deep-arizona-reductions-loom-as-deadline-nears/ar-AA1Ym4fG?ocid=BingNewsSerp&apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1
cjp2010@reddit
Dehydration is better than living in northeast Ohio.
Own_Status_9463@reddit
Well, lol, as someone who lives here, I’d argue sense but you seem like the take your own adventure type.
Honest_Persimmon_859@reddit
Makes sense. The appeal of buying a house in SoCal or Florida that's rapidly becoming uninsurable just isn't there.
Resident_Course_3342@reddit
You ever try to find an apartment or a house in Southern California?