Population growth is slowing in the hottest regions of America

Posted by relianceschool@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 69 comments

As extreme heat intensifies across the United States, it's widely assumed that rising temperatures will push people to pack up and leave. But new research from Florida Atlantic University challenges that narrative, showing that heat alone isn't driving Americans away—at least not yet.

Drawing on nationwide county-level or county equivalent data within contiguous U.S. states including IRS migration records from 2020 to 2022, U.S. Census data, and climate measures from NOAA (data source) and the CDC, researchers analyzed how temperature changes influence where people move. The results reveal a more subtle dynamic: rather than forcing people out, rising heat is slowing growth in certain areas by discouraging new residents from moving in.

The findings also highlight an important dimension of climate and mobility: immobility. Rather than prompting widespread relocation, gradual climate stress may leave many people in place—either because they adapt or because financial constraints limit their ability to move. This raises the possibility that "trapped populations" could become an increasingly important feature of climate vulnerability, particularly in lower-income communities.

"The absence of strong effects today does not mean climate will remain a minor factor," said Diana Mitsova, Ph.D., co-author and chair of FAU's Department of Urban and Regional Planning. "Our findings suggest that stronger migration responses could emerge in the future, particularly as rising temperatures interact with extreme events, long-term exposure, or constraints such as housing availability and insurance markets. Potential 'tipping points' may still lie ahead."