Why the Energy Crisis is About to Get Worse
Posted by Acrobatic-Lynx-5018@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 81 comments
The head of the International Energy Agency recently stated the energy crisis is worse than the last 3 combined.
This recent video from TLDR News talks about why the energy crisis is poised to become far worse. Collapse related because global energy grids are walking a tight rope & simultaneously being bombarded by climate breakdown.
ordinary-thelemist@reddit
We've been running out of oil since 2007 (conventional peak), then 2018 (all oils peaks).
Last year, the IEA talked about a "Red queen syndrome" of the oil industry, spending more than 90% of their revenues just to stay on a continuous production volume. Then Venezuela, then Iran happened.
Of course we're running out, the "fun" part is the fact that we're trashing out last reserves in an attempt to control them. So we're running out even quicker !
PracticeY@reddit
I’m sorry but the peak oil clams aren’t believable anymore. It has been claimed so many times over the past 100 years and doesn’t turn out to be true.
The oil industry will desperately claim that their resource is scarce when they secretly know that there is a vast amount of oil that will be enough for 100s of years at our current consumption levels. Especially when you factor in technological advances for discovery and extraction.
Same with environmentalist trying to claim that oil is running out in a desperate attempt to end the reliance on fossil fuels.
Neither of these groups are telling the truth and it is very obvious they were either misinformed or just lying. The numerous past claims of peak oil turned out to be false, and there is no good reason to believe the current predictions are correct.
ordinary-thelemist@reddit
Sure. Believe what you like. I'm quoting production reports from the IEA but your opinion is probably better.
PracticeY@reddit
Where are you seeing 2018? I’m seeing IEA’s peak oil prediction is 2030, and there is already talk they are going to push this back to the mid 2030s.
Other organizations are saying 2040+.
It isn’t an opinion that all past peak oil prediction have been wrong. The IEA claimed at one point that we’d see peak oil by 2010. There is a very long list of organizations doing this since 1880.
They don’t have enough data or even close to all the variables factored in to make accurate predictions.
YevgenyBurov@reddit
This world is full of rational people who seem paralyzed by the fact that what’s happening in the world doesn’t align with what is being said is happening. It’s like the pandemic. All the rational people saying it’s what they tell us it is and to stop being crazy and stop saying it’s a lab leak, just take the vaccine and shut up. Your insistence that they’re telling us that truth and “if that was true then…” Well news flash my studious, hardworking, did everything right guy, shits falling apart and “they” are for the most part just like you, in denial. There’s no way to keep this petro-economy going. Peak oil happened already and the Americans have extended the decline by removing all environmental protections and giving us a decade and a half of bitumen and shale oil, and now guess what? They can’t hide the shortfall from us with government subsidies and market manipulation anymore, so now they need to fuck around in Iran to fuck over their competitors and secure Venezuela and Alberta to fortify the North American continent against the chaos that will ensue as a result of fucking up China’s industrial supply chain and cutting Europe, Southeast Asia, and Australia off from fuel. To understand the current situation you have to understand the neocons and the project for a new American century. They’re basically like Christian scientists from the early 20th, they think if they think positive thoughts and pray they’ll be blessed by god to continue do gods work in the world, such as going to war against Islam for the last 25 years. And within that group is a group of rational people who only care about oil profits and keeping the power that comes with controlling the energy supply. So back in the 00s when the world was waking up to peak oil and the transition movement started they suppressed that with misinformation and said “we found more” and “we developed new extraction technologies,” and they did. It’s just it’s not enough, and now there’s no mathematical way to keep this global economy going anymore. We’re not going to have a stable world until cold fusion works out. Until then it’s economic shock after economic shock, war, and global austerity. And whatever money you have in your bank and assets you hold will all either become worthless or too expensive for you to maintain. And this is where I think your shield of rationality comes in, it’s too much for you to accept. Ronald Regan tore the solar panels off the whitehouse and declared “morning in America” when I was a gross pre verbal pants shitting bundle of joy and I’ve never known the real world and neither have you. But this is a better guess than doing what you’re doing, which is taking your vaccine and perpetuating the official narrative and living in denial until you wake up one morning and all your money is all but worthless and the country you live in has collapsed, and is being run by a criminal gang who are pillaging the ruins and saying whatever they need to to keep you distracted enough to let them do it. They’d rather you die in a civil war than go to the whitehouse and hang them. So by all means, keep doing you. We’re in an irreversible downward spiral and there’s no bottom but total war. Hope you’re ready to die either violently of starvation. If you’re in any of the major cities that’s your most likely outcome, and is the direct result of all the rational choices you made. The moral and intellectual high ground is going to be a lonely place to starve. Have fun with that
ordinary-thelemist@reddit
Again : I'm not talking about predictions or any smoke signs. I'm talking about the volume effectively produced and used.
As each producing country can inventé their reserves without double check, those prédictions are always bullshit anyway.
duhdamn@reddit
The volume produced is a function of price. Peak oil at $60 maybe soon or even 2018 but peak oil at $100+ might very well be 2035 or later.
TruthHistorical7515@reddit
Earth's crust is thousands of km thick, theres resources everywhere. The real question has always been how deep we can dig to reach them.
sp1steel@reddit
The industry isn't spending 90% of it's revenues to maintain production; it's 90% of investment spending that's going to maintain production. That might sound like a minor difference but there's a huge gulf between '90% of revenue' and '90% of investment spending'. It's still a 'red queen syndrome' to be spending USD 570 billion to do nothing but plateau though. And yeah, 2018 was probably the peak year so we are now in the 'fun' part of peak oil.
ordinary-thelemist@reddit
You're right.
I quoted from memory and it's not as precise as checking 😁
takesthebiscuit@reddit
Yeah but we don’t really run out of oil,
We just make it too expensive to be affordable and viable to use
The amount of oil is effectively infinite it will either be too expensive to buy or the last drops too expensive to extract but if you want to pay the price it’s yours
So when we talk oil it’s all about commercially viable oil, and that quantity depends on the going cost
At $130/barrel lots of reserves that look expensive to extract become viable
mikedareswins@reddit
Yeah but once the ROI hits 1, that’s it. Nobody is spending a barrel to extract a barrel
ordinary-thelemist@reddit
Look at what's happening around Ormuz. All because 20% if available oil doesn't flow as expected.
It doesn't matter if there's still oil somewhere. As long as the volume decreases, the ever growing economy depending on it crashes.
Glittering_Film_6833@reddit
Eventually it is too expensive in terms of the energy required
Konradleijon@reddit
That’s the energy return and investment
leisurechef@reddit
It’s bat shit crazy how the whole world isn’t freaking out even a little bit
Akiraooo@reddit
Most people don't know how a car works. But they use it everyday.
Most people don't know how anything in our modern day world is made, but use it everyday.
Most people have no idea how the economy works. But uses it everyday.
People are not responding to any of the new headlines because they read it and do not have the reading comprehension or knowledge to understand. They currently know that they can go to a store and get food. They know they can fill their car up with gas. That is all they know.
ContessaChaos@reddit
Bread and circuses, baby.
WanderingWino@reddit
As long as we get our UFC fight on the White House lawn, everything will perfect.
ContessaChaos@reddit
I have no words for that shit.
InconspicuousWarlord@reddit
Dude. If Biden or Obama even joked about doing that republicans would lose their minds and probably riot.
ContessaChaos@reddit
Absolutely!
Physical_Ad5702@reddit
It’ll only be worth it if Trump himself gets his fat ass in the octagon and someone renders him a vegetable.
fathersky53@reddit
I had a university prof who used to say he wanted to start a Bread & Circuses Party, because as he put it " as long as you give the people bread and circuses they'll never revolt ".
Important to note this was in British Columbia ( ie B.C. ), a province renowned for its often circus like politics.
hillierprotech@reddit
Don't worry, be happy. Oh wait they're not even all that happy. Oh well at least when we look back we'll see what a once in millions of years era this really was. It's been a ride for sure.
BobDobbsHobNobs@reddit
I’ve got the ‘own nothing’ part down. When does the ‘be happy’ part start?
old-legs-623@reddit
It's like "Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay." Just watch the tide roll away.
Merkyorz@reddit
Driving a car every day is an everyday thing for me.
Tkm_Kappa@reddit
Because we take for granted the things we use and people want the economy to increase as dictated by the people in the higher positions.
verstohlen@reddit
It's like the 1970s all over again. Long gas lines, here we come. Time to turn in the Buick Electra and buy a Datsun.
old-legs-623@reddit
"55, stay alive."
verstohlen@reddit
Try telling that to that to Sammy Hagar.
old-legs-623@reddit
Was he around in '74? It was how we were told (by none other than Nixon) to save gas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Maximum_Speed_Law
Johannes_P@reddit
Sideration is a big way to cope.
HardNut420@reddit
They are in Ireland there are mass protests and work stopages and in the Philippines they are closing non essential operations oil is like 200 dollars a barrel in most Asian countries it's just people in America that are chilling
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Here in the freest country ever, ever, ever, we the proudly poorly educated are waiting on the massive crop failures--then we will freak the fuck out. We get serious when our burrito coverings are threatened.
fcknwayshegoes@reddit
Not having dessert toppings (aka fruit) will also be an issue
ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit
Oil is less than $100 per barrel
https://oilprice.com/
Oil is an international market.
Sinister_Crayon@reddit
So far.
lFightForTheUsers@reddit
I don't think it's set in yet. Know how things were considered great in the Roaring 20's, then the bombshell of a depression hit? We're in for a re-run.
Bobcatluv@reddit
From what I’ve read in non-US spaces, people around the world are (justifiably) angry at Trump and the US, which is fair, but myopic about the roles the global elite/oil industry/wealthy in their own countries play in all of this. It’s really just culture wars on a global scale fomented by the 1%, like it always has been. They’re a cancer to this earth
Wollff@reddit
What good will it to if I freak out?
AHRA1225@reddit
We might as a society revolt and demand change. Like actual meaningful change and not a no kings rally scheduled on Saturday at noon for a couple hours. You know cause we can’t miss that big scheduled riot that doesn’t do anything. But it got cool instagram coverage yay. But we didnt actually riot or make demands or stop spending or stop contributing. We just yelled peacefully and went home. Nothing will change until the system is actually disrupted and well, that’s just not gonna happen
refusemouth@reddit
I tried to go to the last one, assuming it wouldn't kick off until at least noon, but they started it at 10 am, and it was over by the time I got there. Who the hell organizes a protest for 10 am on a Saturday morning?
Ok-Zookeepergame5245@reddit
Perfectly said. The No Kings protests haven’t changed a damn thing. General strikes and riots are the only way that our demands will actually be heard and felt.
sks010@reddit
That guy in Ontario has some thoughts on this
Ok-Zookeepergame5245@reddit
Good man.
DestroyTheMatrix_3@reddit
Fear fear fear. The news needs to be scared. Who can wasye energy on that shit at this point? A good chance nothing happens anyway, and if it does, oh well, nothing I can do about it.
gc3@reddit
What would be the point? What could you do?
NoLobster7957@reddit
We have battle fatigue, everything has been a global crisis since 2021
Konradleijon@reddit
It’s always been like too
uninhabited@reddit
NASDAQ at a record high so who cares about an impending collapse! :/
Gyirin@reddit
Bunch of people are more concerned with upcoming Marvel movie... lol
HardNut420@reddit
It is kinda dystopian that all this crazy stuff is happening in the world then when I go to work people are talking about the latest sports game lamo we are such a stupid selfish country
rematar@reddit
Circus
LystAP@reddit
Well, you see. There's like a new crisis every week or so, so people get inured to it.
windsorjamison@reddit
I think its partially a matter of what we are and are not being told.
Training-Power-8911@reddit
EROEI - an acronym every individual should understand as we burn through oil and coal for single-use junk and the convenience lifestyle .
DissolveToFade@reddit
Ar least the market’s going up.
Tkm_Kappa@reddit
It seems as though the energy crisis is just a way to increase the urgency of climate change. Other nations would need to find alternative ways to obtain energy, and that might be a good thing after all.
Sta41BC@reddit
Any and all alternative energy sources will only increase the need for fossil fuels. Especially mining and transport. We’ll never electrify air, shipping or large truck transport. I keep seeing there isn’t enough copper and lithium even if we strip mined the whole planet. And that comes with a whole set of life destroying externalities. I’m all for renewables, but I fear in the end we’re still fucked, only just a couple extra years down the road.
dashingsauce@reddit
It’s only worse for Europe and Asia. The US is profiting immensely, which is why they aren’t releasing the blockade.
This is a hostile takeover, not a collapse.
ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit
The price of oil is dropping rapidly
HeathenAF@reddit
Like my pants
Blackjacket757@reddit
Lebanon ceasefire and Iran opens up the straight. What are we thinking, gang?
Texuk1@reddit
Two things:
1) whatever shot down that F35 and other hardware has spooked the administration. They can’t spent 500million a pop recovering lost pilots. I think Iran is stalling for time to get manpads in place to deter future low fly action or an invasion.
2) the right are pulling the knives on him and he is scared this conflict is gonna spiral beyond his control. He’s desperate for this all to be over soon and in a way that makes him look good
Ok_Repeat_1995@reddit
Watching the dow go back to 50k that's all I should be thinking about.
Blackjacket757@reddit
Then you aren’t doing a lot of thinking.
Ok_Repeat_1995@reddit
I guess that meme is dead now. But my actual thoughts is being certain that the world is about to change forever with the coming El Niño With everything else happening like a perfect storm. 2027 is gonna be a sight.
Blackjacket757@reddit
Oops. My bad.
Deguilded@reddit
I'm thinking that it's Friday and all sides are shitposting on twitter.
This is the first war to be exclusively fought while markets are closed.
Ok-Zookeepergame5245@reddit
Most likely tonight after the market closes we will hear that Israel has violated the ceasefire and the strait will close again.
refusemouth@reddit
Yep. Israel won't allow peace. They aren't done yet, and they already have the US deployment over there to help them.
Practical_Hippo6289@reddit
Even with the Strait declared temporarily opened, a lot of companies will be hesitant to send their tankers through. Many will wait until some kind of actual end to the war is announced.
rematar@reddit
Not much. There are too many lying narcissistic machiavellian infantile imbeciles in the mix. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does not escalate to weapons of mass destruction.
Blackjacket757@reddit
I don’t see China letting there strategic advantage slip so easily, tbh. America’s leaders are playing dirty. I’m guessing everyone is stalling and trying to keep their own markets stable for now.
BikemeAway@reddit
Is this valid if the Strait is reopened completely?
NyriasNeo@reddit
From google, "Global proven oil reserves are estimated at approximately 1.73 to 1.77 trillion barrels as of 2025-2026, which is enough to last about 47 years at current consumption rates."
We are always running out. It is just a matter of how long does it take. And this estimate says 47 years and I will bet money that we are not running out today, tomorrow of this year.
DreadPirateReddas@reddit
At current consumption rates. This can't be stressed enough and it's the part people miss every single time. Consumption rates are never constant, and the whole point of the economic system we live under is that consumption rates have to keep going up
HolymakinawJoe@reddit
Well the deal has been reached and the Strait has re-opened......so fuck off in THAT regard.
But a lot of the other crap you said it right. Trump & Israel have made things very hard for the world now, and many will suffer. So that's nice.
rematar@reddit
(Fucking³)⁴ Fuckers!⁷
A four day work week? Not because it's good for workers and corporations, but for political reasons..