James Hansen’s Latest: Evidence for Winter-2026 into 2027 Super-El-Nino Continues to Get Stronger
Posted by paulhenrybeckwith@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 50 comments
Konradleijon@reddit
Why don’t people care
Ok-Secretary455@reddit
The climate 20 years from now seems like a fantastically abstract idea. When you're in a constant state of low grade panic over making next months rent or having enough gas to get to work for the week.
Heavy3Heart@reddit
I have seen dozens of people complaining about gas prices and then announcing their 3rd pregnancy. Normies are just hedonistic
unknownpoltroon@reddit
Nah. its biology. Your ancestors all survived by fucking, breeding and scraping by in the past, its instinct to keep doing it even when that is whats causing the problem
FungusRespecter@reddit
This belief is also influenced somewhat by survivorship bias. People who have a crapton of babies is what has stuck around in our genetics, because inevitably, the people who don't have children do not carry on their genetics. Pulling out has prob been a thing since the dawn of time, or at least a possibility. For all we know, there could have been pockets of antinatalist movement/philosophy in the stone age.
ideknem0ar@reddit
Thus the "human exceptionalism" idea needs to DIAF if, as a species, we're just going to mindlessly & unsustainably breed & overshoot ourselves into a spectacular crash & bring our ecosystem down with it. Most highly evolved, my ass. Whatever. I'm taking my non-reproductive butt outside to garden for the rest of the day.
muddaFUDa@reddit
We’re just bacteria with big dreams
False_Raven@reddit
Crazy how that once distant goal post is now racing to the ball faster than we can even kick it out of the way
Barnacle_B0b@reddit
Because even collectively, no citizens or governing bodies can stop the overwhelming influence of the Industrial+Financial+Political elite. Until they choose to do something, nothing can change.
And Reddit won't even entertain the discussion of forceful revolution, nor will any corporate forum of discussion on the internet, so we don't have the collective ability to organize against it either.
mediandude@reddit
Swiss style referendums would be a viable option to introduce carbon tax + full citizen dividends + WTO border adjustment tariffs.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Here's one that Reddit and others may not be aware of:
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
[Remarks on the first anniversary of the Alliance for Progress, 13 March 1962]” ― John F. Kennedy
Twisted_Fate@reddit
People don't care until it starts to affect them personally.
I've seen good headline recently, about Trump.
lifelovers@reddit
Because it’s literally impossible to do anything as long as we have a billionaire class who believes they can withstand these consequences in their bunkers and private islands and get-aways. There’s literally nothing to do with these disparate levels of wealth allowing one group of thousands of humans to believe they will survive no matter what, when that group sets all policy and political decisions everywhere.
I didn’t used to think so, but it’s hopeless. Completely hopeless. Enjoy birds and old trees - and any nature you can - while they’re still here.
Frubbs@reddit
I do, but I have a finite amount of time left, nothing has changed since Silent Spring was published and Greta Thunberg was openly mocked. I'd rather learn to be content with the time I have left than desperately clawing my way through a losing fight. I am okay going extinct, we had a good run. I am at peace with God, and I thank Him for the chance to experience what may very well be the peak of human civilization
Vibrant-Shadow@reddit
Well said my friend.
We are fish in a shrinking pond.
This is it. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Frubbs@reddit
Thank you! Your quote reminded me of one from a very intelligent podcast dude named Nate Hagens, “The modern buffalo is a barrel of oil.”
False_Raven@reddit
This is generally what people think about when looking up at the sky.
There is nothing tangible for them to process, they just see it as setting for their surroundings. They don't see it as complex interconnected global web.
Compared to the amount of issues we have on the planet, people just see concern and awareness around climate change to be worthless, the amount of brutally stubborn people I still meet to this day that refuse to believe in climate change is utterly disgusting.
Fundamentally, the amount of people who don't give a shit completely outweigh everyone that is in the loop.
No one cares, and frankly no one will continue caring at all, I don't think people will care even when their relatives die from a heat stroke, they'll probably think its some health related complication and never accept the fact their relative died from a human made cause and negligence.
No one cares and people will continue not caring
Go stockpile on air conditioners and dehumidifier, enjoy whatever time you have left on this rock in space.
Key_Pace_2496@reddit
Eh I'll probably die in the respurce wars of the next decade anyway so why bother.
Isaiah_The_Bun@reddit
Have fun with that. Im riding this out for as long as possible
Key_Pace_2496@reddit
It's funny that you think they won't get you too lmao.
Isaiah_The_Bun@reddit
whos "they"?
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Five or ten years from now, "they" are the people down the street that think you have a few cans of beans hidden, and they're on their way over.
Key_Pace_2496@reddit
Idk, what was I talking about in the post you replied to? Attention spans aren't what they used to be apparently...
Bellegante@reddit
People don't even keep themselves from being fat, despite knowing they'd be more energetic, more attractive to the opposite sex, and healthier for their whole lives.
Expecting them to care about something abstract when there's a major propaganda campaign telling them it isn't even true is a lot.
Uncommented-Code@reddit
Good question. Nobody really knows. The funny thing is I don't even know if the psychologists and behaviouralists care enough to even ask that question.
I'm surrounded by smart people who are offended by the Iran war for example, but because Trump is causing chaos, not because we are about to see shortages in fertilizers, gas and kerosene, three very important factors that affect how food is grown and how it gets to us.
dashingsauce@reddit
Same reason people can’t understand how they’re creating the conditions for a heart attack in their late 40s
Arctic_Chilean@reddit
Same reason why chain smokers don't care about getting lung cancer and dying early.
Deny deny and deny until the truth smacks you in the face demanding its debt be paid with interest.
And even then, many just carry on like nothing happened. Remember, there were people dying of COVID still denying COVID even existed. That it was all a hoax as they were being intubated and collapsed into a coma they never woke up from.
Some people do care, a lot, but they are too few and too powerless to turn the tide of an indifferent and jaded public. By the time the majority get their moment of realization, it will be far too late to do anything.
hypnosiscounselor@reddit
For and idiot like me, what are we looking at? Alot more rain/snow? Much stronger storms?
mediandude@reddit
A possible passing of a tipping point or two or three.
hypnosiscounselor@reddit
At this point it is the dealer's choice.
FieldEngineer2019@reddit
An increase in temperature = an increase in energy in the atmosphere = more extreme weather
m0nk37@reddit
Do add to this. We warm water to power turbines in most cases to power cities.
Thats happening in the atmosphere more intensely.
ansibleloop@reddit
Also weather whiplashing
Weather that swings from extreme to extreme
hypnosiscounselor@reddit
That makes sense. Thank you.
whereisskywalker@reddit
Michigan was long hailed as a climate refuge and has had a huge major ice wind storm last year, and now it's flooded with a bunch of dams that nearly broke on top of multiple tornados this spring already.
Going to be interesting if they ever get a long enough drought to have forest fires, crazy amount of forest up north there.
Similar to how the pacific north west was assumed to be a climate refuge, they are now missing winter snows almost entirely this season and flooding instead and now dealing with summer heatwaves never seen before.
I can't imagine it will be better in other areas. We don't have proper modeling for all the feed back loops and I personally think the most doomer projections are too conservative.
Things are ramping up very quickly and we're are releasing more pollution and c02 every year than before. Coupled with studies that there is a large lag between emissions and their affecting weather and things are extremely dire.
The real kicker is once the masses catch on, going to be a lot of desperate choices being made and a lot of anarchy to spite the wealthy for allowing this to happen over the last 75 years instead on having any kind of decency. Good luck to them inventing a tech that breaks physics as we know it to repair the earth and all the species we are reduced to product until extinction along the way.
old-legs-623@reddit
Yes. "Refuge" visualizes steady gradients. Energetic atmosphere gives you unsteady conditions. I'm in PNW and the winds last couple of years combined with the increased evaporation from soils have affected agri/horticulture. I suspect the 2020 fires (I evacuated from one) were some kind of curtain raiser.
ladeepervert@reddit
It depends where you live how extreme things will be. A guarantee however, is extreme wind.
If you live in Austrailia, you will be on FIRE summer 2027.
lightweight12@reddit
The effects vary greatly depending on one's location. Check out what normally happens during an el Nino in your area for an idea of the possible scenario.
lostnthot@reddit
Extreme drought in North Carolina with a couple million trees down from Helene in the mountains, feel like I'm living in a tinderbox.
Vibrant-Shadow@reddit
It's gonna be Super-duper.
THE_REAL_JOHN_MADDEN@reddit
Paul, in the interest of taking good care of valuable/expensive goods in a world where it's increasingly important for our survival to do so, PLEASE close some browser tabs!! Fantastic video as always.
freedomoverfear_19@reddit
It’s hard not to feel concerned when you see headlines like this and I get it. People in other parts of the world might feel the effects worse than us. To a regular folk like me who's almost in his 50s, I am balancing health and financial stuff. For most of us, the more pressing matters are rent, food, bills and gas just to name a few. It's not that we don't care, we just have a lot on our plates right now.
Royal_Register_9906@reddit
How does the timing of it compare to other seasons ? Is a winter El Niño less of an issue than one in the summer?
paulhenrybeckwith@reddit (OP)
Evidence for Winter-2026 into 2027 Super-El-Nino Continues to Rise, at Expense of “Normal” El Niño
James Hansen and his colleagues at the Columbia University Earth Institute published an article online called "Super-duper El Nino" and examined the forecast that there will be a Super-El-Nino later this year into 2027.
They argue that examining the temperature of the upper 300 meters of the central Pacific Ocean is a much more reliable predictive indicator for El Nino's, and that the temperature anomaly of this water was 1 degree C for March and has rapidly climbed to 1.6 C, which they argue greatly increases the likelihood of a Super-El-Nino later this year, as opposed to a more moderate "normal" El Nino.
Stay tuned...
References and Links
James Hansen Columbia University: https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=e926bb0053f95734&sxsrf=ANbL-n6h4M3WmyjEVpoEOC8ELVoyhSPEFg:1776302207892&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKpaEWjvZ2Py1XXV8d8KvlI3ppPEReeCOS7s1VbbZz2TLutTM8bcskdZ5Z5EWAFJPjTghF9mS0qmGrv36U8kfuC6phFf8U1aWAryveA6Pgbo-LJArAvFGtBaC-wIVf-3rOLbrzlISCuJck68rl0WFoHGTeNP9xZJUZnLVvAIZB5lw287sSA28lFrT9_xdHVkCgVCxYNHQ&q=james+hansen+columbia&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwieyfWwmfGTAxXME1kFHZNrC-QQtKgLegQIIxAB&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75
James Hansen website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
New James Hansen and colleagues article on April 15, 2026: Title: Super-Duper El Nino https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/Super-Duper%20El%20Nino.2026.04.15.pdf
El Nino Effects on Global Weather: https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=636b6b880a1328ed&sxsrf=ANbL-n6DB9dNQOmArCUGFCHjHtuscihHzg:1776303344889&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIYFfWbU_Clyew-1Wh7zkL7EUcewkj-Y5mEXWvVf2-8S7Q9JzmuMHBTnAM1FBTEpBAA6ghZXslcE6dJxwMWTLgGoAr4vYGCqFp1bqwX9pdu1VtM8TVsK2QpWIASBYKEiS5XGwgKc6E7Dp3ilRZxQId1C2H3zqV-Yekj5Y5u09hyXTQo1fKw&q=El+nino+effects+on+global+weather&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiqt4rPnfGTAxXeD1kFHfeRI2YQtKgLegQIEBAB&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75#sv=CAMSVhoyKhBlLTB0NE53REtrWjRxTE1NMg4wdDROd0RLa1o0cUxNTToONkpLeFZrM0xPSVF0aU0gBCocCgZtb3NhaWMSEGUtMHQ0TndES2taNHFMTU0YADABGAcgsNDJiA5KCBABGAEgASgB
NOAA Maps: Global impacts of El Niño and La Niña https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/global-impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a
Earth Nullschool: Equatorial Pacific https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/equirectangular=-164.74,0.00,271/loc=-81.354,0.529
James Hansen: Global Temperature Data https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Data/Temperature/#fig1a
Query: For how long has Earth experienced the ENSO cycles? https://www.perplexity.ai/search/for-how-long-has-earth-experie-MLZhKDrhQuScpatQiEn0cA
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
ladeepervert@reddit
I love watching your videos. Thank you for your effort.
FineArtRevolutions@reddit
seconded!
FlailingLabia@reddit
Oh shit now it's super duper.
Iamlabaguette@reddit
it’s gonna get super duper faster than expected
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/paulhenrybeckwith:
Evidence for Winter-2026 into 2027 Super-El-Nino Continues to Rise, at Expense of “Normal” El Niño
James Hansen and his colleagues at the Columbia University Earth Institute published an article online called "Super-duper El Nino" and examined the forecast that there will be a Super-El-Nino later this year into 2027.
They argue that examining the temperature of the upper 300 meters of the central Pacific Ocean is a much more reliable predictive indicator for El Nino's, and that the temperature anomaly of this water was 1 degree C for March and has rapidly climbed to 1.6 C, which they argue greatly increases the likelihood of a Super-El-Nino later this year, as opposed to a more moderate "normal" El Nino.
Stay tuned...
References and Links
James Hansen Columbia University: https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=e926bb0053f95734&sxsrf=ANbL-n6h4M3WmyjEVpoEOC8ELVoyhSPEFg:1776302207892&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKpaEWjvZ2Py1XXV8d8KvlI3ppPEReeCOS7s1VbbZz2TLutTM8bcskdZ5Z5EWAFJPjTghF9mS0qmGrv36U8kfuC6phFf8U1aWAryveA6Pgbo-LJArAvFGtBaC-wIVf-3rOLbrzlISCuJck68rl0WFoHGTeNP9xZJUZnLVvAIZB5lw287sSA28lFrT9_xdHVkCgVCxYNHQ&q=james+hansen+columbia&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwieyfWwmfGTAxXME1kFHZNrC-QQtKgLegQIIxAB&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75
James Hansen website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
New James Hansen and colleagues article on April 15, 2026: Title: Super-Duper El Nino https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/Super-Duper%20El%20Nino.2026.04.15.pdf
El Nino Effects on Global Weather: https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=636b6b880a1328ed&sxsrf=ANbL-n6DB9dNQOmArCUGFCHjHtuscihHzg:1776303344889&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIYFfWbU_Clyew-1Wh7zkL7EUcewkj-Y5mEXWvVf2-8S7Q9JzmuMHBTnAM1FBTEpBAA6ghZXslcE6dJxwMWTLgGoAr4vYGCqFp1bqwX9pdu1VtM8TVsK2QpWIASBYKEiS5XGwgKc6E7Dp3ilRZxQId1C2H3zqV-Yekj5Y5u09hyXTQo1fKw&q=El+nino+effects+on+global+weather&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiqt4rPnfGTAxXeD1kFHfeRI2YQtKgLegQIEBAB&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75#sv=CAMSVhoyKhBlLTB0NE53REtrWjRxTE1NMg4wdDROd0RLa1o0cUxNTToONkpLeFZrM0xPSVF0aU0gBCocCgZtb3NhaWMSEGUtMHQ0TndES2taNHFMTU0YADABGAcgsNDJiA5KCBABGAEgASgB
NOAA Maps: Global impacts of El Niño and La Niña https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/global-impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a
Earth Nullschool: Equatorial Pacific https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/equirectangular=-164.74,0.00,271/loc=-81.354,0.529
James Hansen: Global Temperature Data https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Data/Temperature/#fig1a
Query: For how long has Earth experienced the ENSO cycles? https://www.perplexity.ai/search/for-how-long-has-earth-experie-MLZhKDrhQuScpatQiEn0cA
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1sn2pxh/james_hansens_latest_evidence_for_winter2026_into/ogii71v/
metalreflectslime@reddit
Thanks.