Future of JetBlue

Posted by Aggressive-Lock6840@reddit | aviation | View on Reddit | 37 comments

JetBlue has had a grueling few years since the Spirit merger fell through. With Spirit currently teetering on the edge of liquidation, JetBlue appears to be the next domino to fall, with some analysts predicting bankruptcy in the coming months. Interestingly, United recently announced the "Blue Sky" partnership with JetBlue. To me, this looks like the groundwork for an eventual acquisition. While United is reportedly discussing a merger with American Airlines, I suspect that’s a "red herring" or a tactical move to pressure the DOJ. By showing interest in a massive merger with American, United makes a JetBlue acquisition look like a much more reasonable, pro-competitive alternative. United is extremely profitable and is the most likely "successor" to B6. JetBlue has exactly what United needs: • Strategic Geography: A massive Northeast presence (JFK/Boston) and a stronghold in Florida. • The Fleet: The A321neos and A220s are assets United would love to integrate. I can see United opening hubs in Orlando and Boston while expanding focus cities in JFK and FLL. While one report on a non-credible website suggests United is hesitant due to JetBlue’s debt, let's not forget that American’s debt load is substantially higher. If the price is right, I believe United will move. What do you all think? Is this a very likely future merger?

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Tony_Three_Pies@reddit

United got what it wanted from JetBlue, which is a foothold back in JFK.

United is getting the Airbuses it wants, and Kirby has said many times that used airplanes aren’t worth the cost or the headache so I’m not sure how interested United would be in JetBlues 320s let alone the 220s.

If the price is low enough I’m sure you could get United to bite but I don’t see what they get out of it. Florida? I’m not sure that’s enough, and would be up for grabs if JetBlue fell apart anyway.

The American merger “news” is also way over blown in my opinion. From the reports I’ve seen it wasn’t not a serious discussion but that hasn’t stopped the rampant rumors.

Speaking selfishly, a JetBlue merger would frustrating, and an American merger would be a nightmare.

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the_devils_advocates@reddit

That and SK has said many times he’d rather hire their employees at the bottom of the seniority list because it’s cheaper

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BLARTYMACMUFFIN@reddit

Florida has very low margins, part of the reason JetBlue can’t turn a profit

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Boeing367-80@reddit

There are used aircraft and used aircraft.

Assembling a lot of aircraft in the used market is generally hard for an airline like United bc they come in many different configurations and you'd need to conform them to UA's spec.

Some airlines are ok with that. DL assembled MD-90s in the used market and conformed them. Southwest historically was fine with picking off bargains in the used market and conforming them. When they backfilled for AirTran's 717s they bought a bunch of used 737-700s from many sources and conformed them.

But it's a different matter buying a matched fleet of 100s of 320s and 321s with a common heritage. Conforming is far less hassle bc you're doing the engineering once and then any necessary mod work is the same across the fleet.

So no, UA chooses not to acquire used AC bc it's a hassle dealing with 31 flavors of used AC. But in quantities of 100? Different issue.

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Tony_Three_Pies@reddit

The last time I heard of Kirby expressing his opinion on used aircraft was when Spirit was first tanking and they were off loading their Airbuses. That would have been a batch of the uniform planes and he was still saying it wasn’t worth it. That was amidst Boeing and Airbus’s delivery issues too. Now that United is getting planes at a decent clip again it’s even less compelling.

I don’t think United has any interest in the 220 either.

But who knows with any of this stuff. You can’t trust anything any of these people say out loud so it’s all just speculation. Hell, Kirby has also said on more than one occasion that he isn’t interested in a merger while apparently at the same time having “conversations” with the government about buying American.

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tvlkidd@reddit

I think spirit (and frontier) have a non standard A320/21 with extra exits ….

IATA

ICAO

Name

Location

FLL

KFLL

Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International Airport

Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States

JFK

KJFK

John F Kennedy International Airport

New York, New York, United States

Odd_Minimum2136@reddit

AA will buy JetBlue

Narrow_Affect2648@reddit

Alaska makes more sense than united IMO

Almaegen@reddit

What about southwest? Isn't their network somewhat lacking on the east coast?

Southwest operates only 737s, it would be a significant departure from their operating model.

Valuable_Strike7462@reddit

They’re already moving away from their standard operating model

There’s assigned seating and then there’s “let’s build an entirely new training and maintenance model”. They’re not really the same in terms of scale.

moon_master345@reddit

Southwest would never use Airbus

Easy_Money_@reddit

Alaska is very patient and deliberate with its strategy; there’s a reason it’s the only legacy airline to never go bankrupt. JetBlue lost 5x more money than Alaska made last year. The only reason Alaska would do this is to prevent United from doing so, but I think the whole industry is happy to wait for JetBlue’s price to come down significantly (whether post-restructuring in Chapter 11 or just due to increasing shareholder desperation). One thing is certain—absorbing JetBlue would be an order of magnitude more complex than Virgin America or Hawaiian. The business model also doesn’t fit with Alaska’s west coast-origin premium widebody aspirations. Rather than grabbing a bunch of Airbuses they don’t want and can’t even fly, Alaska might be better off waiting to get a bunch of JFK slots and BOS gates (whether in a fire sale or as competitive remedy for a different merger).

Potentially! I think they’ve got the best case to put in front of regulators aside from maybe frontier, spirit, and jet blue being allowed to merge. Southwest would certainly be interesting, but would be a significant shift in strategy and operating model, so don’t see that happening. A lot has changed at SW in the last year though, so I guess you never know.

Yeah, definitely less overlap, there are maybe like 5 routes Alaska and JetBlue compete on. There would probably be some regulatory questions about oneworld dominance at JFK though; AA + AS/B6 would have a pretty sizable presence in New York and South Florida. I believe that historically, EWR has been considered a separate market from JFK/LGA for merger purposes, which could work in UA’s favor

wasapasserby@reddit

Unfortunately, Alaska is loaded with debt from the Hawaiian merger, and HA itself was already carrying high interest debt and a negative balance sheet

T7-City-Point@reddit

Which is very unfortunate, because if there's any chance that the US could ever see a legitimate challenger for a 4th international premium airline, an Alaska-JetBlue merger is the most plausible shot.

Aggressive-Lock6840@reddit (OP)

I would love for Alaska to buy JetBlue but United has their partnership and is integrating their systems together. Most likely I think it’s going to be United sadly.

They aren’t “integrating “ their systems together… that’s not how a codeshare works.

Together they decide which flights will be covered by the codesharing agreement and which fare buckets will be offered.

Then each airline adds the codeshare flight number into their own system…the routes are then loaded into their own schedules with only the fare codes allowed under the agreement.

When someone searches on united.com for a flight from BOS to FLL the system says oh! That’s a JetBlue flight, let me send an electronic message to JetBlue and get availability for J,D,Y,X fares

Then it displays that to the customer.

When they buy the ticket united creates a PNR in their own system and collects the money … then sends an electronic message to JetBlue that someone bought a flight from BOS to FLL is X class for $100.00 and JetBlue also creates a PNR that has the united PNR attached… then sends its own PNR to united then gives that information to the customer in the form of an itinerary.

It’s slightly more complicated because the ticketing end but that’s the basic gist.

It’s all messaging back and forth

txhenry@reddit

Isn’t United moving their Vacations platform to JetBlue’s?

fighting_gopher@reddit

United is using JetBlue’s “paisley” which is like an Expedia

United Vacations is actually just a white labeled service … which I believe is owned by Delta (someone might have better info on this)

JetBlue does own JetBlue Travel Products (JetBlue Vacations)

moving to a different platform is probably more about a revenue sharing opportunity than being JetBlue …

spacecadet2399@reddit

There really needs to be a JetBlue merger topic in the FAQ at this point.

Interesting_Dingo_88@reddit

I would be sad to see Jetblue go. I've consistently had great experiences with them over the years, and they've been influential in the industry. But it seems likely that they will get swallowed up by somebody. Not the first great airline to get gobbled up, and they won't be the last. But maybe they will find a way to forge a profitable path and remain independent... time will tell.

yourweekendtravel@reddit

I agree. Grew up flying with JetBlue. Always positive experience. United is my guess as the airline most likely to acquire. The Mint equipped Airbus A321s could easily be pivoted to United Coastliners. But there's a chance that airlines won't touch JetBlue with a 10 foot pole because of the negative margins. Maybe B6 can take a more aggressive approach to JetForward which includes ditching the transatlantic product and deciding whether it wants to focus on low yield leisure/Latin America routes or being the alternative option to the legacy airlines for Northeast travelers.

herladyshipssoap@reddit

I started working there in 2021 after the NEA was spun up and the Spirit acquisition quickly became exciting. It really felt like so much was on the horizon. They had never done formal layoffs when I joined and the way the culture there shifted in that short of time still really bothers me. It was such a thrill to join, but now feels like one of the biggest mistakes I've ever made in my career.

What was it that made the culture shift so quickly in your opinion?

IATA	ICAO	Name	Location
FLL	KFLL	Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International Airport	Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States
JFK	KJFK	John F Kennedy International Airport	New York, New York, United States

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