This is how the Iran war triggers a global food collapse

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miklayn@reddit

Western nations are about to cause (by way of inaction/permitting the "free market" to "operate") mass starvation and megadeaths in the global south, which will be priced out of food and fuel. Then we will lock them out and leave them to die when they try to migrate northward.

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GloriousDawn@reddit

One western nation started this war unprovoked.

One western nation normalized endless growth on a finite planet and called it prosperity.

One western nation built a global financial system that forces debt-dependent extraction just to survive.

One western nation subsidized fossil fuels at scale while knowing the consequences for decades.

One western nation enforced the petrodollar, tying food, fuel, and survival to its currency.

One western nation structured trade rules that undercut local food systems across the global south.

One western nation drove overconsumption as culture and aspiration, then globalized it.

One western nation weaponized sanctions that ripple outward into food and energy shortages.

One western nation hollowed out climate agreements when denying the problem was no longer an option.

One western nation externalized its environmental costs onto countries least able to absorb them.

One western nation protected corporate profits over human survival again and again.

One western nation knew, delayed, denied, and deferred until the bill came due for everyone else.

So please, don't include the rest of us and try to share the blame for the inevitable catastrophe.

Maybe you didn't vote for it. Maybe you didn't profit from it. But you can't act like it's not the twisted endgame of everything that one specific western nation did and stood for in the last fifty years.

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miklayn@reddit

You mean England, yes?

It wasn't just one nation, although I agree it was one civilization, one ideology.

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GloriousDawn@reddit

If you were deflecting any harder, you’d be redirecting enough sunlight to solve the energy crisis.

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miklayn@reddit

I'm not deflecting anything. I'm being clear as day.

Nations don't exist. They are constructs. America's extractive capitalism was borne of preceding initiatives and economics. Our whole system of law was expressly based on English common law. We didn't invent racism, we didn't invent slavery we didn't invent ecofascism.

We are certainly one of the main aggressors in the world over the past 100+ years, I agree; I hate it and it hate it here as much as anyone. But It's reductive and ahistorical to single out the USA as somehow the singular progenitor of this collapse.

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loralailoralai@reddit

‘We’ you assume everyone knows you’re talking about the u.s. How arrogant is that. You’re deflecting. Nations may be constructs but they are reality. One man caused this, put in that position by citizens of one country/construct. You’re deflecting. What’s going on now is trump.

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miklayn@reddit

Trump is a distraction. He is merely a puppet, a tool of the corporatists and schizofascists standing in his shadows.

He was elevated by them and unwittingly by millions of Americans, also themselves subject to the deceptive social engineering of those same actors.

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GloriousDawn@reddit

Seems awfully convenient to argue nations don't exist when you're from the one responsible for this shitshow.

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Ekaterian50@reddit

You say this as if imperialism isn't a shared sin of humanity.

Humankind must unite against conniving antisocial people or this shit show will continue to cycle till who even knows when

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GloriousDawn@reddit

If you consider that being on the receiving end of imperialism is sharing that sin too then sorry, my bad.

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Ekaterian50@reddit

Every culture that we know of has participated in the enslavement and exploitation of others. I'd say that qualifies.

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sks010@reddit

Well, any who didn't would've been wiped out by those who did.

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Ekaterian50@reddit

The only way to fix this is to abolish xenophobic ideals like nationalism

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miklayn@reddit

Yes. Mankind will need a global species-consciousness and to identify common purpose with life itself, or else we mostly perish.

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Ekaterian50@reddit

Kinda hard to accomplish that when even non human hominids seem to be capable of such warmongering insanity

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ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit

The article is from mid-March. It's mid-April now and the war is functionally over

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

“Functionally over.” Delusional

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ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit

I think you're psyching yourself out here. Look at the chart for CLW00. Oil futures rose to >$118 per barrel in June of 2022. They're currently at $89.91 per barrel.

Hunger in Somalia is an issue but why would it trigger a "global food collapse"?

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

Stocks do not accurately describe the severity of the situation. There is absolutely no possibility we can just restock and go back to business as usual. The disruption this has and will cause to literally every single point at every single supply chain globally is a disruption we don’t have the time or resources to patch over.

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ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit

Stocks

This isn't a "stock" - they're oil futures. Commodities trading deals in the real world, and the price of oil has been dropping fast.

$81.75 currently, by the way

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

Let’s get back to this convo in 2 months

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ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit

RemindMe! 2 months

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ArugulaAcrobatic4018@reddit

RemindMe! 2 months "Are oil prices causing a global food crisis?"

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CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

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onionfunyunbunion@reddit

I’ve spent the past 15 years preparing and positioning myself to survive systemic degradation/collapse. For a long time I was very anxious. Now that it’s accelerating, I’ve accepted that I’ve done everything I can reasonably do, and I’m finding that it is a great relief to let go of the idea of surviving against all odds. I think I’m just going to observe and try to enjoy myself, maybe get involved on a local level. It’s just too stupid. We blew it. This is the dumbest collapse imaginable. We deserve to reap what we’ve sowed.

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Front_River_2367@reddit

And here I thought I had to worry about something fantastical like Yellowstone, solar flares (emp), water wars, etc. But nope, just a completely unforced error by the biggest dipshits to ever hold this much power.

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welcomefinside@reddit

water wars

Oh that's definitely still on its way, don't you worry!

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fedfuzz1970@reddit

Read, "Water Knife."

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lynk1@reddit

Double recommendation for water knife

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livingbeeing@reddit

im pretty sure iran war is just politics trying to hide that its their fault not having prepared enough for peak oil

peak oil is right now. (there will be less and less oil in future)
---> ITS THE FAULT OF ..insert any scapegoat

oh we can't feed our population anymore because no more oil
---> just send them to war to die

instead of preparing for a life independent from oil when it was known lots of centuries ago

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GroundbreakingPin913@reddit

Not too late to see that stuff, too!

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Bratsummer24@reddit

At this point, we would be lucky to have Yellowstone erupt, or any other sudden and widespread cataclysm.

I'm not sure that the slow societal collapse is going to be less painful...

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kea1981@reddit

I'm hoping for The Big One off the coast of Cascadia. Watch the waves roll in before I die...

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False_Raven@reddit

I like your mentality.

We're way past the point of scrambling to fix things.

The most intelligent creatures on the planet and we're too fucking stupid as whole to live. We've lost the plot

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Ok-Zookeepergame5245@reddit

So true. It’s so annoying to think that this is how the collapse happens.

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SkyBoundAssumption@reddit

All I have is myself. That's all I need. Everyone and every system failed me. So I am me. If I die, so be it, I will choose to be selectivley good to those I deem worthy of my compassion.

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PandaCarry@reddit

This isn’t the first cycle human civilization has gone through, the biggest so far yes but there’s always improvement afterwards. It just sucks we have to life through it to experience the good

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screendrain@reddit

I'm coming over to your house

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humanoidtyphoon88@reddit

No

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everything-grows@reddit

This is basically where I'm at mentally as well. No way do we survive without embracing local community and helping each other. It's time for an end to the selfishness that got us here at the precipice of collapse.

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whereismysideoffun@reddit

Community is the sum of individual efforts which is the really hard part. For local community to excell in such a situation it requires each person working their max potential to be part of food production. It's a game of subtraction and dilution from there. I have been heavily involved in community organizing and local foods. When collapse comes. I have realized that due to the inaction of others that I have to set a limit to my help circle which is people who live on my geographically isolated hill.

Anyone that wishes to be part of or rely on local community has a responsibility to do their best now to learn skills and acquire the tools for those skills. I say that as someone who has worked hard on skills for my whole life but in a dedicated way for collapse for the last 20+. I wish to do my part, and minimally not need to take food from others.

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mazinger-B@reddit

Unlikely. We can just rename the file to "StraitofHUMMUS.exe" and resave if that happens

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mossyskeleton@reddit

The fucked up part is that Americans will probably mostly be fine, while globally millions of people will starve due to the war the lizard people decided we need to have.

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

I think they’ll be hit hardest, their whole civilisation is built on oil and fertiliser. Going without a third of both is going to have catastrophic effects on the US. Especially when you consider the possibility of sanctions the US could face in the future.

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mossyskeleton@reddit

I'm interested in your perspective, but can't the US just buy (and steal) their way out of it? We still have the petrodollar and we likely will even beyond this war. It's going to take time for everything to completely disintegrate. I just don't see the effects of this war impacting the US as much as other places because the US still has great power in the world.

We also have a lot of resources on our continent. We produce the highest amount of oil in the world, and if we want to we can keep it all to ourselves. The places that need everything imported are the ones that will face severe challenges.

I'm talking about some African and Southeast Asian countries. Probably also Middle East if Iran follow through with attacking civilian infrastructure. And Europe will suffer but not as bad as those places.

If the US has a major collapse I sense that it's still decades ahead.

I suppose it might be important for me to ask you what you mean by "catastrophic effects in the US". What do you suppose those effects might be? To me, 'catastrophic' is famine and civil war. I just don't see that happening. I see inconvenience, inflation, supply chain disruption, and the poor getting poorer... but not starvation.

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hum_ma@reddit

Isn't the US more than self-sufficient with regard to oil though, at least if they can have Venezuelan oil to compensate for quality differences? They currently have enough production to export to most of Europe and advertise that everyone should buy American oil, so it's not like they have a shortage. Probably same for fertilizer.

For them West Asia is about control and the price of oil, not the supply. They could simply pull out of Asia and Europe, go into isolation mode, decouple currencies, fix domestic prices and just stop caring about what happens elsewhere. Maybe do some occasional piracy here and there for rare materials and valuable shipments.

I'm not sure whether it would be worse or better for everyone.

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

They might be okay regarding their oil, but they can’t replace 30% of their fertiliser stocks overnight. Making fertiliser is an incredibly energy intensive process which uses natural gas as a feed stock. The US needs that fertiliser right now, planting season is beginning and the weather is only getting hotter.

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hum_ma@reddit

Perhaps, but wouldn't much of the fertilizer for this planting season be mostly in the stores of retail distributors there, if not at the farms already? The long time that cargo ships sail from the Gulf means the products that normally would have departed in March couldn't have yet made it to the Americas anyway.

I would imagine it's going to have more of an effect on the US in the summer and fall so the farmers that have a choice may now be planting crops that won't need a lot of additional fertilizer later in the year.

Africa, Asia and maybe Europe are likely to run into problems sooner as they probably relied more on recent shipments.

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GreatPlainsFarmer@reddit

That’s correct

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GreatPlainsFarmer@reddit

It’s not a third of global production, it’s a third of global exports of oil and fertilizer.

That’s only about 6-7% of global fertilizer production, with maybe another 2-3% affected by feedstock exports.

The world still has access to about 90% of its fertilizer production, and countries like China and Russia will restrict exports to keep enough for domestic use.

The effects are going to vary a lot from country to country.

The US might find itself a few percentage points short on nitrogen, but not enough to seriously impact crop yields.
At least, not in 2026.
I make no predictions for 2027.

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ttystikk@reddit

Iran didn't trigger shit, people. The US and Israel started the war after committing war crimes and perfidy.

Blame the proper people!

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Kritical_risk@reddit

The US will be ok as it has Venuzuelan oil.

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Cold_Combination2107@reddit

oh fun what a fun model! do be careful though, i see that the iran war is a closed loop though. might want to find a terminus for it, otherwise youre going to just keep perpetually fighting iran!

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FineArtRevolutions@reddit

If you think of the iran part as more broadly about militarism at large, then the loop is accurate.

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OperationGloUp@reddit

Side note, I’ve been trying to buy bagged salad from the grocery store for the past two days. It’s all picked over, and what’s left is wilted. I’ve tried two different big retailers, and same results. Is this just coincidence?

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Frisian_Tea@reddit

Don't know, but many of the "fresh" items in my most recent grocery order were in bad shape. Had to pick out rotten green onion stalks and cook the bags of spinach immediately, because they were not going to last even another day (cooking hack: saute aging spinach in butter and cinnamon... tastes good and lasts a while in fridge). Don't know if some of this fell on the shopper or was just a matter of what was left in the store, but it was a dismal experience compared to many previous orders.

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roytay@reddit

/r/Shortages

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Z3r0sama2017@reddit

Got 35million and counting stored calories! Eagerly looking forwards to the ostriches get a rude wake up call!

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GreenFriend@reddit

This a bunch of lines, boxes and words. You might be right. Aliens might land in the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow. Non-Zero chances.

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

These are all very real factors at play

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GreenFriend@reddit

I agree

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ComicCon@reddit

There is a bit of a jump from your sources to your conclusions. I’m not sure what your goal is with this, but if you want to convince a tough room(aka not this sub), maybe try to go into more detail and put some numbers on stuff. For example “crop yields down” okay but down how much? What are the implications of say expensive fertilizer? How do crop prices, weather, and higher input costs affect decision making next year? What regions of the world are most vulnerable to this crisis? That kind of stuff.

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

Thank you, I appreciate the feedback!

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WildFlemima@reddit

Excellent, I've been needing to lose some weight. Gotta get that ~~beach~~ nuclear desert bod

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terpsarelife@reddit

I call it homeless sheek

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dANNN738@reddit

Reading articles that conclude with “… this will lead to 4-7% food inflation” seems absolute folly.

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metalreflectslime@reddit

I am a second year environmental scientist.

You are a 2nd year PhD student in environmental science or you are a graduated PhD holder in environmental science with 2 YOE of industry work experience?

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

I’m a 2nd year undergraduate doing a double major in ecology and environmental science

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escfantasy@reddit

That’s a much more accurate description then.

A law undergraduate in their second year of study is not a second year lawyer.

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anxioushowlermonkey@reddit (OP)

Oh my fault I didn’t know

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InterstellarReddit@reddit

AI slop post. That diagram is AI created and it’s terrible

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walrusk@reddit

It’s giving red strings connecting things on a corkboard energy.

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ahmtiarrrd@reddit

Where are the step rectangles for "Water Wars", "Global Conflict", and "Billions Dead?"

Just asking.

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Responsible-Annual21@reddit

I’m going to continue to stock up on 5 years worth of Retatrutide. I may starve but at least I won’t be hungry 😂😂😂😂

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Distinguishedflyer@reddit

Starving 45 million more plebes is probably part of the point.

The thought that I have as a neurodivergent person is "you know, if narcs/sociopaths/acquisitive greedy monsters weren't running the show, we could act towards the interest of everyone else, including animals/insects/biosphere.

I mean it's way too late now, but all along, if we had had ANY deeper awareness (and I got mine watching pictures of earth from Apollo 8th, the Earthrise pics, understanding at 9 years old we were ONE, on the only spaceship we could reach) we might not have shat our own atmosphere to poison and we could have simply agreed to limit births and tilled the rest like the garden it used to be.

I don't know about the rest of you and I'm not some noble paragon, but if I see a being suffering, hungry, I want to share my food; cold, I want to share a blanket; afraid, I want to give them a hand to hold.

Kids are more like that, I don't know where it twists to blackness in adults. Instead of all the wars, we could use those great conflict based logistical systems to make sure everyone has some fertilizer before planting. We could HIRE people and train them to maintain our grids, we could hire/train/pay anyone who needs employment to maintain dams, etc. Like the CCC in the 1930s.

Not all this AI crap that is positively SHOVED down our throats. I can't use a fucking search engine without a million RIGHT IN THE WAY GODDAM PROMPTS to ask fake claude, or use fake MAVEN fuck you meta. Smiley.face. Reddit trends that way too. The powers that be have murdered sanity and enjoyment. It didn't have to be an Orwellian nightmare. That was choice by control freaks writ large. And, as always, there are plenty of thug kapos to enforce it for a temporarily better slice of bread.

I like a few individuals, and I love animals, but humans can go extinct. We are a failed species.

Instead of fairly simple sanity, we have a codified opposite of empathy driving, and that's a death sentence. So stupid. And now the earth is going to cook us off. Frankly I wish I had never been born.

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