Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought
Posted by mustwinfullGaming@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 17 comments
Posted by mustwinfullGaming@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 17 comments
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
Remember back in the early ‘00s when this was science fiction?
Fun times.
mustwinfullGaming@reddit (OP)
Submission Statement: New research suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is significantly more likely to collapse than previous research suggested. This is important because Amoc plays a key part in regulating many parts of the global climate, and its collapse would have huge implications for the world. For example, western European states like the UK may be plunged into extremely cold winters.
I highlight these quotes as important:
“Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.” He added: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.””
Conscious-War5920@reddit
Wasn't there a brother and sister who researched that the amoc could collapse a lot sooner than reports were indicating? I forgot their timeline, but i almost want tl find that again now.
screendoorblinds@reddit
I think the ditlevsens are who you're thinking of
BTRCguy@reddit
I mean, it is going to collapse. The questions are "when?" and "how much warning will we have?". The other questions like "will we do anything to slow down the contributing factors?" have already been answered (hint: the answer rhymes with "no").
Skyerocket@reddit
😯 You mean....
Perhaps so?!
mrpickles@reddit
I think you mean, speed them up
/s not /s
Unlikely-Program-827@reddit
Sorry I’m confused, is it saying it’ll collapse by 2065-2100 or slow down to a point when collapse is inevitable by that point?
WalterSickness@reddit
I’m confused by this as well but I conclude that this paragraph reflects the most likely scenario:
Old-Height-4519@reddit
The latter.
"...an estimated slow down of 42-58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse. ".
collapse-ModTeam@reddit
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Old-Height-4519@reddit
What would collapse of the AMOC look like?
BEERsandBURGERs@reddit
Ah, the AMOC models with the most dire outcome are the most trustworthy?
How surprising...not. The same with the IPCC global heating models...
MoonlitInstrumental@reddit
that tracks with most models. the worst case is the most realistic one and its still too conservative
mrpickles@reddit
Seems like a silly oversight...
MeepersToast@reddit
Yikes...
Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.”
He added: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.”
Rahmstorf, who has studied the Amoc for 35 years, has said a collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. “I argued this when we thought the chance of an Amoc shutdown was maybe 5%, and even then we were saying that risk is too high, given the massive impacts. Now it looks like it’s more than 50%. The most dramatic and drastic climate changes we see in the last 100,000 years of Earth history have been when the Amoc switched to a different state.”
The Amoc is slowing because air temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic because of global heating. That means the ocean cools more slowly there. Warmer water is less dense and therefore sinks into the depths more slowly. This slowing allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, also making it less dense, and further slowing the sinking and forming an Amoc feedback loop."
How is this not table stakes?
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/mustwinfullGaming:
Submission Statement: New research suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is significantly more likely to collapse than previous research suggested. This is important because Amoc plays a key part in regulating many parts of the global climate, and its collapse would have huge implications for the world. For example, western European states like the UK may be plunged into extremely cold winters.
I highlight these quotes as important:
“Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.” He added: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.””
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1smdwo9/critical_atlantic_current_significantly_more/ogdfbpq/