The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has been characterised by a series of miscalculations by most of the involved and peripheral parties, but the real danger is the delusion over the scale of the resulting energy crisis.

The reality is that even with a ceasefire and the resumption of vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the next few weeks, an energy crisis for the world economy is locked in.

• The first delusion is thinking that the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will solve the current problems with the supply of crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas.
• The second delusion is thinking that U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration are acting rationally, taking considered decisions and are fully attuned to the economic damage being inflicted on erstwhile allies in the Gulf, Europe and Asia.
• The third delusion is thinking that this is a crisis of crude ​oil prices, where it is actually an emergency over the supply of refined products, especially to fuel-importing nations.
• The fourth delusion is thinking that short-term policies of self-interest will save your country from the worst of the ​fallout.

Trump has effectively three options left.

1. Walk ⁠away from the mess he has created while trying to spin the conflict as a win.
2. Escalate dramatically and run the risk of a long conflict with massive damage to the Gulf's energy infrastructure and the resulting severe global energy crisis and recession.
3. Accept a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement that will likely be more favourable to Iran than what existed ​prior to the start of the conflict on February 28.

The third is probably the one that will be least harmful to the world economy, but it seems the least ​likely given the statements and actions ⁠of the parties involved.

The main impacts of the crisis are likely to be felt in ​May as refiners, especially in Asia, struggle to source crude.

The second-round effects such as higher inflation, lower global trade, job losses and social unrest are likely to emerge in the second half of the year.