Are we about to enter recession? I am so worried.
Posted by SpicedCoconut@reddit | AskUK | View on Reddit | 71 comments
Currently looking to buy my first home but with the ongoing geopolitical situation, increased mortgage rates and worsening cost of living crisis, am I better off to continue renting for now? When do we expect to hit recession? How will the UK be affected and to what extent in comparison to the other G7 countries? I am feeling extremely anxious and disheartened by it all.
Significant-Prune-61@reddit
Buy you house. You don’t want to be paying someone rent in your retirement.
Cheapntacky@reddit
You are making an investment over the next 20-30 years. This won't be the last time this happens.
3 house moves down and 7 years left I've been through the 2008 crisis, austerity, COVID, cost of living crisis. There's always something happening just make sure you aren't over stretching yourself and try not to let it get you down.
ENTPrick@reddit
Truly though, if there was ever a concern about current events, no one would buy anything.
As long as you manage it, and are confident you’ll secure work, the housing markets always bouncing back, its supply and demand. And our supply has been lagging way behind for last couple of decades.
thechase22@reddit
I hear you. I feel its a little different with also that most ai jobs are being threatened to take our jobs. We live in a different uncertainty with history repeating itself and new never seen before territory
mcnoodles1@reddit
AI via LLMs like we use at the moment aren't going to take many jobs. They look good on the surface and are handy tools but they don't and can't understand things.
ColdFusion on YouTube was talking about this experiment where they got all the top models to do simple tasks that were advertised on fiver. 94% of the clients said the work was incorrect and wouldn't use again.
Big_Fish_Artwire@reddit
What's the name of the video, please?
mcnoodles1@reddit
https://youtu.be/z3kaLM8Oj4o
I was surprised at just how hopeless AI was in this study.
Big_Fish_Artwire@reddit
Cheers mate
budapest_budapest@reddit
This is exactly what people were saying in the Industrial Revolution, it’s not unprecedented that machines take some people’s jobs and new jobs or changed roles spring up in their place.
ENTPrick@reddit
Suppose the alternative is just starving and homelessness, since you won’t make rent anyway.
Specialist_-Berry@reddit
If only fears of global catastrophy would stop me from buying nandos...
thechase22@reddit
You spoke like how you want your dad to give you kind good advice.
odkfn@reddit
Let me also speak to you how my dad gave me advice as a child
anuj_sabhlok@reddit
What makes you think the rents won't go up?
Big_Fish_Artwire@reddit
I suspect that if mortgages go up, rents go up, as it's the rent of a place what pays for its mortgage. That's what convinced us to buy now.
PaulPlatypus@reddit
Cost of living crises is here for many for generation’s. The only way out is to skill up. Get comfortable with general declining living standards in Europe.
WealthMain2987@reddit
We entered in 2008 oraybe before and never really left. Don't worry about it, it is better than paying for someone else's mortgage.
Glad-Banana-2582@reddit
We are already in recession
Timely_Egg_6827@reddit
It is never a good time to commit to a 25 year financial comittment. I took out my mortgage during the banking crisis and my partner got made redundant. However the mortgage we had was fixed and comparable to what we'd been paying for rent - you need to live somewhere and at least at end of period, you have an asset. Try and remember to build in 10% for maintenance a year though and get a good survey.
_gtat@reddit
What about 35 years?!
Timely_Egg_6827@reddit
Same point though I personally would want it paid off before retirement as income often takes a dive then.
PuzzleheadedCarob921@reddit
If your mortage is the same or slightly lower than your rent then just buy. It’s a buyers market. In a few years time your rent will go up, your mortgage will stay relatively the same. Likewise in 15 years time your rent will have doubled. Your mortgage will be relatively the same as now or non existent if you can afford some over payments.
EDDsoFRESH@reddit
Even if the mortgage is higher than rent it still makes financial sense to pay off a mortgage instead, you will still be better off.
PuzzleheadedCarob921@reddit
I bought my first house 16 years ago. I’ve paid it off and now rent it to family on the cheap and live in a much bigger house that I’ve also paid off. I felt very nervous buying 16 years ago but glad I did.
gareth1229@reddit
UK may not be in recession technically but the economy has been stagnant for so many years. Recession does not crash property, it’s catastrophic events like financial crisis and or depression that can crash property value. And there is no way to predict those.
It’s how much “Time in the market” that matters not “timing the market”.
Maybe you can adopt this simple risk management approach, instead: How much are you paying in rent now and how much are you going to pay in mortgage monthly amortisation? If it’s comparable then you have got your answer, right? If you want security then try lock it in for the next 5 years. And then save up for the rainy day scenario.
EDDsoFRESH@reddit
Feels like the economy has been permanently stagnated since 2008, so basically my entire adult life! I’m sure there’s been better and worse times but I’m still sat here waiting for an economic boom 🫣
CautiousCat24@reddit
We’ve been about to enter a recession for the past 15 years. Ignore the noise
drivenkey@reddit
The real question is how we restart meaningful growth and the answer to that imho is to sort out our massive welfare bill first...without that nothing will change.
Lopsided_Wealth@reddit
Sensitive_Tomato_581@reddit
We're doomed! doomed! Doooomed I tell you.
Few_Step8804@reddit
I was in a similar position to you in early 2020 so I know how you feel! I’m sure you’ve done this already but just in case you haven’t, figure out all your estimated outgoings each month if you were to get your own place including food, bills, insurance, travel, fun money, savings and whatever you think you can afford for a mortgage payment (and obv have a look at what a bank will actually land you - think it’s approx 5 x salary). Figure out if those numbers feel ok to you or if you’d be stretching yourself too thin each month. You could also do a couple of projections to try and figure out if you could afford the mortgage still if rates went up when you come to renew to check future affordability. Also think about your job and if that feels secure, how often you get a pay rise etc because obv bills etc go up annually so worth factoring in. And consider where you want to live because if you’re in a flat you’ll prob need to pay service charge and ground rent so something else to consider cost-wise. The money saving expert website has some helpful mortgage calculators to help you guesstimate mortgage costs in case that’s helpful. And then finally, weigh up how much you’re spending on rent atm that you could be investing in a home and how happy you are in your current rental versus your own place. I hope that helps and I hope you’re ok 😊
Theunluckyone7@reddit
Experts aren't expecting a recession. Stay clear of the fear mongering headlines and look at the real data. That being said, these things happen when you own a house too.
mumwifealcoholic@reddit
What experts are these?
We are about to enter a very painful process.
Get ready.
Theunluckyone7@reddit
People seriously need to stop comparing low growth with recession which is two consequetive quarters of shrink, they are not the same. Go look at the forecasts and you'll find the experts.
bigfish73@reddit
Well the IMF just said Britain would be worst hit of G7, but projected growth is still over 1%. Not great but not a recession
Undercover_Elephant_@reddit
If it did happen it could be in your favour. Property prices would likely decline sharply so you would get a cheaper property, requiring a smaller mortgage (good thing). Then in time mortgage rates will fall (as they were expected to before the war) and the value of your home will rise. That’s not a bad place to be.
HughWattmate9001@reddit
Feels like we have never left one since early 2000s. Maybe thats just my age and being in teens/school until early 2000s and then working after that. But people feel way more tight (because they have to be) since those early 2000 and prior days.
Burning_Ranger@reddit
I'll just look in my crystall ball... pointless question to ask, no one can predict the future.
Foldies-R-Cool@reddit
It might be an idea to think about something like shared ownership - which is part buy , part rent . I absolutely loved my shared ownership flat - it sounds complicated , but is actually straightforward in practice . One warning ; some people have been subject to extortionate service charges ; but I’m not sure if that is also a problem with flats in general ( where there are service charges ) . My flat was with Sovereign , and they were great landlords too - no issues at all . I’m now living in a fully rented social housing flat - which I also love . But - yes - make sure the housing association has a good track record .
CarpeCyprinidae@reddit
On top of whats already been said
It doesnt matter per se if the value of your house falls in the short term - all that matters is your ability to pay the mortgage monthly - that you earn more than that
Being a property owner makes it more important to have an emergency reserve and to live on less than you earn, but as long as you cna keep paying for it you will do OK.
Yes, there are circumstances where a property price drop hurts, such as remortgaging if LTV has increased, but these are just good arguments in favour of having a longer mortgage fix or a larger emergency reserve.
Common sense and resilience will see you all right
heroics-delta8s@reddit
There’s always a reason not to do something. But in the last forty five years there’s only been about three periods of eighteen months or so when it would have been a bad decision to buy a property, and even then it was only a short term loss. Nobody who buys a house and lives in it for the term of the mortgage will be worse off than those that rent. Plus you get a house. Rule of thumb, it’s never better to rent, if you can afford to buy. Never. Never. Never.
Longjumping-Sock-719@reddit
Go live abroad it’s better for young people 😎
Doomergeneration@reddit
I think we’ve been in a recession for some time, it’s just not being admitted
SelfSufficientHub@reddit
That’s not how it works. It’s a set metric not based on vibes.
jonewer@reddit
Recessionmaxxxing
DreamsComeTrue1994@reddit
Everything is based on vibes these days 😂
mcnoodles1@reddit
2026 is giving recession-core aesthetic
mailywhale@reddit
A metric set by a metric which is quite easily manipulated (GDP growth)
Ok-Blackberry-3534@reddit
In which case it doesn't matter. Nothing magic happens if we enter a recession. If it's always manipulated, then we're basically using the same metric.
mailywhale@reddit
Yeah it’s rubbish. Inflation is also well obscured
bahumat42@reddit
I think there is a fair argument to be made that the metric may not reflect real world conditions
TMI2020@reddit
Nah. A recesh is defo vibes only, hun. Just like the cozzie livs.
m1nkeh@reddit
What specifically are you worried about?
And by that I mean how those things you mention will impact you
lordconcorde@reddit
The IMF still expects us to grow this year so probably no recession. That doesn't mean things won't be painful like they were a few years ago. Inflation doesn't automatically lead to recession and we still don't know what will happen in even 2 weeks' time.
Just make sure you can pay your mortgage and buy it, it's better to be paying for your own mortgage than someone else's. Also banks are more understanding than they were in 2008 when people are struggling.
Lo_jak@reddit
Dont forget that the IMF are often wrong about the UK and are overly optimistic in their forecasts.
PatchcordAdams@reddit
What? It’s the opposite. They’ve been overly pessimistic about the UK for years. Especially the last 5.
nivlark@reddit
It depends on your personal situation, not what goes on in the wider economy. If buying makes economic sense for you now, then it probably makes sense even if we do fall into recession.
And there are some advantages to having a home even if you do end up falling on hard times. It's a lot harder to get kicked out of a mortgaged home than it is a rented one.
PatchcordAdams@reddit
I bought in my house in the middle of 2009 when everything was imploding. Was only on a fixed term contract too.
Was bricking it, cut my spending to the bone, got a couple of lodgers.
Remember a family friend calling me an idiot and that prices were going to plummet.
Turned out fine. Don’t know what I would have done differently in hindsight.
Benjanio88@reddit
Houses only get more expensive over time. News is just noise. And recessions are lagging indicators, when the news hits the headlines that we’re in recession we’re normally over halfway through it anyway.
Lwelchyo@reddit
There will always be something going on. If the numbers work, do it.
Specialist_-Berry@reddit
If we're hoping for anything, I'm hoping high rates being house prices down. Rates are temporary, the price you bought at is permanent...
R151ngWarr10r@reddit
I totally get why you’re feeling anxious; it’s a huge decision, and the headlines make everything sound apocalyptic.
None of us can predict with certainty if/when a recession will hit, but a couple of things might help put it in perspective:
You’re not buying for the next 6–12 months, you’re buying for the next 20–30 years. Over that timescale, there will be recessions, recoveries and everything in between.
The key factor isn’t the wider economy so much as whether you can comfortably afford the mortgage now and have a buffer if rates go up or your situation changes.
If your monthly mortgage payment on a sensible fixed deal would be similar to or lower than your rent, then you’re essentially swapping paying someone else’s mortgage for paying your own.
If you’re stretching yourself to the absolute limit and have no savings, then waiting, saving a bit more, or buying something cheaper might give you a lot more peace of mind.
On the recession side: forecasts at the moment don’t show a guaranteed deep UK recession, more of a slow, bumpy period and even if we do dip into a technical recession, that doesn’t automatically mean a house price crash or that you’ve made a terrible decision.
A few practical steps:
Run the numbers on different scenarios (rates +1–2%, short period on one income, etc.) and see if you’d still be okay.
Consider a longer fixed-rate period if that helps you sleep better.
Keep an emergency fund so you’re not one bad month away from panic.
You’re clearly thinking about this carefully, which already puts you ahead of most people. There’s no perfect, risk‑free time to buy, so it’s really about finding a level of risk you’re comfortable with and a home you can realistically afford.
Whatever you decide, you’re not stupid or reckless, you’re just trying to make the best long‑term choice in a messy world, like the rest of us.
ResplendentBear@reddit
Recession - not yet, but if the war carries on, maybe.
But a recession doesn't mean much on it's own. They're all different. Some people will lose jobs, so will get shitty pay increases, some will do fine. As has been said a million times, if you had a job and a mortgage, the cost of living improved substantially in 2008.
That's if there even is a recession.
i-am-a-passenger@reddit
Honestly, renting rarely makes the best decision. If you can buy, you can always drop to an interest only mortgage if you need it.
I_ALWAYS_UPVOTE_CATS@reddit
If a bank will offer you a mortgage today at a rate that works for you, then the chances of some hypothetical future recession are irrelevant. Maybe if things get really bad you'll be at risk of losing your job and struggling with repayments, but you'd equally struggle to pay rent in that situation anyway.
Tall_Stick5608@reddit
Don’t worry your new home won’t be bombed / taken over by a settler or choked of basic necessities / washed away in a tsunami. Be grateful you live in one of the most stable countries in the world and in a location that isn’t prone to natural disasters. Be more confident / grateful and optimistic about your situation compared to billions of others globally.
sennalvera@reddit
Anyone who could give an accurate answer to those questions would be off making mint advising hedge funds, not on reddit.
A recession is likely. A prolonged recession is not unlikely. Interest rates are going to be somewhat higher than they might otherwise have been. Whether that means it makes economic sense for you to continue renting, only you can say.
Old_Introduction_395@reddit
My first mortgage the interest rates were around 13%.
After a couple of years, we were in negative equity, couldn't have sold the house to cover the mortgage. We hung on, got a lodger, and things changed.
Terrible-Amount-6550@reddit
Why worry when you can’t change anything?
LegitimateDraw3902@reddit
I bought my first home around the 2008 financial crash and had a mortgage around 4.9%. I was anxious too, but 16 years later it’s a distant memory. You can’t really time these things. If you’re ready then carry on…external factors will always happen. Some suggest house prices might dip this year, so you could benefit in that respect.
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