Models point to strongest El Niño event in 140 years with significant impacts on global climate this year
Posted by wanton_wonton_@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 123 comments
Umbral_VI@reddit
It's soooo over and the vast majority of people are painfully oblivious.
No_Branch_5083@reddit
I've been wondering if the combination of a super El Niño and the consequences of the Iran War aren't going to lead to some sort of significant event? The countries that might take the biggest hit like Australia, India, and Asia are also those which are going to have the worst shortages of oil and fertiliser as I understand it. Combine a lethal heatwave with grid failure, or decreased crop yields, and what happens?
PrimalSaturn@reddit
Singapore is one of the largest refineries of oil who get a large portion of crude oil from Russia.
Australia (where I live) has made a trade deal with Singapore to be supplied refined oil so in that regard, we are okay for now I guess.
GardenScared8153@reddit
Famine is looming from the fertilizers by themselves. Super el nino is like overkill at this point.
SaturdayPrunes@reddit
New here. Venus by Tuesday? BOE?
GardenScared8153@reddit
This sub used to have a pretty cool individual named fishmaboi who used to always say Venus by Tuesday , so you know absolute disaster meltdown of the whole planet human extinction coming way too sooner than we even expected.
BOE is short for Blue Ocean Event , it's basically when the arctic ocean has less than 1 million km2 of ice so it becomes blue as opposed to white and thus it significantly reduces its albedo effect and substantially increases the heating of the planet. When the first Blue ocean event happens it's basically game over, the arctic is the air conditioner of the planet so you get very brutal climate that could pretty much kill agriculture, cause multiple breadbasket failures, wet bulb temperatures, extreme weather. BOE is a major feedback loop. Not to mention the arctic has a lot of methane trapped in permafrost when released will make our problems way worse and might give us some ancient viruses, we might get the first one this year or maybe next year , it'll most likely happen before 2030.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html
this site is a bit on the extreme mcpherson side so you know take it with a grain of salt but their explanation of the BOE is good if you want to learn more and there are links to the youtube channel of amazing Paul Beckwith who frequently posts on this sub.
atlasblue81@reddit
hmmm...adding this to my bingo card. remind me in 1 year!
lizardtrench@reddit
Reminds me of the classic visualization of a nuclear chain reaction - a room with a floor covered in mouse traps and a ping pong ball gets thrown in, setting off one trap, which sets off two more, which sets off four, which sets off eight, and so on.
Our floor isn't fully covered in traps, so maybe the El Niño and Iran War balls will bounce in between them or only cause a cascade localized to just one corner of the room. But the possibility remains that these are the balls that will end up setting all the traps off.
Even if they aren't, the fact remains undeniable that we keep throwing more balls and adding more traps into the room. We're quickly arriving at the point where we're basically just crossing our fingers and praying to the god of probability.
DreadPirateButthurts@reddit
What a great image! A nice way to grasp what's going on
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Starting the war could eventually kill millions.
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Can't spell The Big One without a
b. Billions.AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Yeah, if the dick is small enough, it could be billions.
baron_muchhumpin@reddit
The +1.5°C/2°C framing has always been an issue for me...
Those were never safe thresholds, they were negotiated political targets that represented what was deemed achievable, then reframed as safety boundaries. The actual climate science never said 1.49°C was safe and 1.51°C was dangerous.
It was always degrees (pun intended) of increasingly bad outcomes.
Bluest_waters@reddit
I remember when it was 1°C. As long as we held it to that we were OK. Then it was 1.5... then it was 2. Now people barely talk about it
TernarySquare0123@reddit
I remember 2C being considered game over back when 1C was the standard.
Striper_Cape@reddit
2C+ is game over. The 2021 PNW Heat Dome killed trillions of living things and billions of small, riparian and marine animals. That becomes a regular 5-15 year at 2C? We're fucked. It was so hot in buckled roads and damaged electrical transmission infrastructure.
voodoobettie@reddit
In BC, the entire town of Lytton burnt down.
TernarySquare0123@reddit
Not looking too rosy, is it.
Striper_Cape@reddit
And that is in a "safe" place
s0cks_nz@reddit
I remember when the PNW used to be the climate safe space of North America. Look how that turned out...
TernarySquare0123@reddit
I used to look for the best place to live while watching the great crumble.
It turns out that there is no good place. It's a spectrum that runs from bad to worse.
ideknem0ar@reddit
Last summer was a glimpse that the climate haven of northern New England could be false hope as well. God, it was brutally hot and dry. Worst in 4 decades or so.
GlassFantast@reddit
Whatever it is is game over regardless. Billionaires will destroy the world eventually just a matter of when
retrosenescent@reddit
Funny how we misframe it as "destroying the world". The world will be fine. It is humanity that will be destroyed.
vinegar@reddit
We’re taking most of the biosphere with us. When agriculture becomes unreliable we’re going to eat everything. When petroleum inputs become unavailable we’re going to burn everything. We’re gonna go out kicking and screaming and grabbing onto every last resource that might buy us one more day. But yeah, the rocks will be fine.
MostlyDisappointing@reddit
I'm more skeptical of this take. Humanity won't die out quickly, we will burn, eat, exploit anything and everything on our way out. We could conceivably cause a greater mass extinction than the end permian because we are not just one event, we are a destructive force that will adapt to devour anything left.
Kamelasa@reddit
And it's not even just the climate. I just started reading The World in a Grain, Vince Beiser's book about sand, the most important solid substance in our civilization. Basically illegal and unregulated mining of sand from every kind of ecosystem is destroying them and as well destroying expensive built infrastructure. It's like removing your connective tissue from your body. Do that in a delta or river, popular sand sources, and you lose natural coastal features as well as roads, bridges, etc. Sand for concrete, special sand for silicon chips, and everything in between. An amazing book.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Excellent example.
I watched a YT summation last year. The black market for sand is insane. It's the third largest global black market.
s0cks_nz@reddit
Yup, and it has to be a certain type of sand. That's why river sand is so popular in that regard.
raisin22@reddit
Thanks for the recommendation. I’d never thought about sand mining having such a huge impact on the ecosystem, but it makes so much sense.
ideknem0ar@reddit
I remember some post-presidency interview with Obama where he's like "we may not be able to cap it at 2, but we can do it at 2.5 instead of 3, or 3 instead of 3.5."
As long as we can deduct .5, no matter the first number, it's all ok! /s
s0cks_nz@reddit
People now talk as if 3C is livable. I don't think anyone thinks it's safe, or good, but even that it's livable, especially without society collapsing, seems laughable to me. Even Wallace-Wells, the author of The Uninhabitable Earth thinks there will be a functioning western society at 4C warming. People are delusional.
BrobotMonkey@reddit
I say this with love, the average person is not that smart. Not excluding myself. I've accepted I won't see a natural end to my life. Pandemic, Nuclear war, climate change, etc.
It should be obvious that there's no magic number when things get bad, things just get worse.
We've already hit the iceberg and only the mega wealthy are getting on a lifeboat.
I will say the idea of millionaires/billionaires/politicians slowly rotting in a bunker thinking about what they've done is delightful. I wish I didn't have to die for it.
GardenScared8153@reddit
the mega wealthy are not getting on a lifeboat and let's just say they are as doomed as anyone else on this planet.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
A year or two after the beautiful people retreat to their bunkers, there will be a recurring theme at many bunkers, best exemplified by one of the most luxurious bunkers of all: As you walk into the spacious movie room, you'll see Bezos Bald Head surrounded by burning torches.
vinegar@reddit
Visualize bunker mutiny
s0cks_nz@reddit
Probably why they are working so hard on robotics and AI.
GardenScared8153@reddit
I don't think it'll take that long but they'll probably take him outside and nail him to a tree, nail some sense into him.
fookinrandom@reddit
We're taking few centuries ahead. Imagine at this rate, no wonder the greys are actually us humana probably thousands years into the future, barely alive with no soul. Like a lost piece of consciousness looking into it's own sad origin story
DrTreeMan@reddit
Plus, the 1.5°C threshold in the Paris agreement is an average over a 20-year period.
Manul-de-pokas@reddit
Now the (rethorical) question from southern Brazil
2023/2024: a little above average EN IIRC, two biblical floods, one regional (two cities washed away) another statewide (half of capital/metro region under 5ft water!)
Are we fucked again?
Chill_Panda@reddit
I live in the UK and a couple of years ago we had a 40 degree Celsius day, with like a 70% humidity.
It was brutal. It was the worst summer I have experienced.
This summer will take that place. It already feels like a hot one in April, and our weather has been all over the place this year.
Lorenzo_BR@reddit
I mean…
40c at 70%+ is just the norm where i live. I’ve ridden 100km in that weather more than once.
I’m not saying it’s good, nor normal for the UK, but i’m just saying it’s normal for a decent portion of the world. What you described is just what every summer has always been like for me.
Summer sucks.
RichieLT@reddit
I was working on that day in a factory , yeah…. It was hot.
milk2sugarsplease@reddit
Yeah I had to go out with bowls of water to try and help all the pigeons laying in my garden that were exhausted from that 40 degree day. Also was the day I discovered my car aircon wasn’t working and had to drive 2 hours to work. It was so surreal.
asyrian88@reddit
“Rare” super event. Sure. How many “once a generation” events are we having every year now?
balthamos19@reddit
What would be the impact in Europe? It doesn’t mention anything about EU. Hotter southern countries and colder northern countries?
chocolate_chip_cake@reddit
140 years later, you mean to say 14 weeks later I believe.
Electrical-Effect-62@reddit
28 weeks later would be a better story for us honestly
rick-reads-reddit@reddit
Does continental drift affect El Nino?
Peripatetictyl@reddit
BOE within a year?
clovis_227@reddit
I'm looking forward to the Purple Ocean Event. Sweet anaerobic bacteria
Hilda-Ashe@reddit
Will it be before or after the Black Hole Sun?
Most-Internal-2140@reddit
Probably after the Black Swan Event.
Dizzy_Pop@reddit
This year there wasn’t any rain to wash away.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
the ocean is green for an amazing reason
switchsk8r@reddit
clovis_227@reddit
Oh, the sky is gonna be green
karabeckian@reddit
Dr. Peter Ward!
Classic r/collapse material.
Unfair_Creme9398@reddit
Like the Great Dying 252 million years ago?
Level_32_Mage@reddit
It's going to have nothing on the Big Beautiful Bereavement!
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
MEGA
Make Extinction Global Again
littlepup26@reddit
Man, I'm supposed to go finally go college this year at 35 but then I walk outside and it's 80 degrees in April and I see all of the data and the graphs and I'm like...what are we even fucking doing at this point. It's game over.
jmckinl@reddit
For the same reason some people create art and climb mountains... Just because you can?
Fast-Armadillo1074@reddit
I’ve been checking the sea ice extent every day out of morbid curiosity and it started falling off a cliff the last couple days.
Wonderful_Valuable16@reddit
What's the extent required for a BOE?
Fast-Armadillo1074@reddit
Less than 1 million square kilometers.
Wonderful_Valuable16@reddit
Still a long way it needs an extreme drop.
vinegar@reddit
Yes. The record low was in 2012 at 3.5 million square km.
sluttycupcakes@reddit
It starts plummeting in the summer which is off this graph
Twisted_Fate@reddit
https://science.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/arctic_nsidc_2020259_plot.png
It's a trajectory.
DaisyHotCakes@reddit
So we are looking at a possible BOA this summer plus a “super” El Niño event which could quickly lead to a collapse of the NAO?? Like are we talking full oceanic and atmospheric current collapse? I know the ocean feeds weather but if the NAO is disrupted…what happens to all that hot water? Does it circulate? Do the sea currents change based on the temps, the huge increase in sea level from a BOE, or will it all just stop circulating all together?
vinegar@reddit
The seasonal difference in sea ice extent is much greater than the difference between BOE and previous summers so I don’t think sea level will an issue. Disclaimer: I am not a cryosphere ologist.
Fast-Armadillo1074@reddit
I’m not really qualified to answer those questions. One thing is sure though — we will find out.
Radioactdave@reddit
For a blissful split second I thought this was the sea surface temp curve. But, no.
:(
Fast-Armadillo1074@reddit
Yeah it’s more like this 🤷♂️
vinegar@reddit
On this map BOE is when the amount of ice is half the size of Greenland. So we’ve got a ways to go.
ohyeahwell@reddit
URL?
Fast-Armadillo1074@reddit
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
ohyeahwell@reddit
Thank you
Washingtonpinot@reddit
Never has “morbid curiosity” been used more appropriately
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
2027 boe predictors rise up
Kent955@reddit
I hope so, then I am having a BOE party to celebrate the end
backmost@reddit
Mr. Blue sea, please tell us why You had to hide away for so long (so long) Where did we go wrong?
might_be-a_troll@reddit
Hello, fellow ELO fan
IQBoosterShot@reddit
Hey, how you feelin'?
Are you still the same?
Don't you realise the things we did, we did
Were all for real, not a dream?
I just can't believe
They've all faded out of view.
everything-grows@reddit
Siri play Everyone Is Welcome by Johnny Blue Skies and The Dark Clouds
Djcnote@reddit
Boe?
AutoModerator@reddit
Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is a term used to describe a phenomenon related to climate change and the Artic ocean, where it has become ice-free or nearly ice-free, which could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system. This term has been used by scientists and researchers to describe the potential environmental and societal consequences of a rapidly melting Arctic, including sea-level rise, changes in ocean currents, and impacts on marine ecosystems.
When will a BOE happen?
Scientists predict that the Arctic could experience a BOE within the next few decades if current rates of ice loss continue. When a BOE does occur, it is likely to have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system, including changes to ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise.
Has a BOE ever occurred?
A BOE in the Arctic has not yet occurred in modern times. However, there has been a significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, and the Arctic sea ice cover has been reaching record lows during the summer months. This suggests that a BOE may be a possibility in the future if current trends of sea ice decline continue.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
Cool-Contribution-68@reddit
Must be one of the hardest working bots on reddit
SmallOnes_Stylist33@reddit
Good bot
lightweight12@reddit
Here are some interesting links with more information...
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskScienceDiscussion/s/9cwK9qBkHL
Akiraooo@reddit
I like the color blue...
RichieLT@reddit
Possibly I’m not looking forward to it, hope it doesn’t happen.
Grinagh@reddit
Yeah I keep trying to explain to people how monumentally fucked we are this year as far as it goes for weather. I'm pretty sure this is the year we're going to see the 1 million casualty heatwave
Sufficient_Bass2600@reddit
Imagine the hottest summer in record with the highest energy price in record.
Add to that the huge tariff on electric and electonic equipment coming from China, it is going to be a summer of discontent in the USA.
Previous-Pomelo-7721@reddit
A summer wholly curated by deliberate choices.
jolhar@reddit
Anyone else expecting to see a photo of actual models pointing at sky? Or do I just really need to put my phone down and get some sleep.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Words don't seem to be important these days.
It should read, "COMPUTER models..."
4SaganUniverse@reddit
The news is not preparing anyone for what may happen this year and next. I live around the Tampa area and the local weather said we are going to have a mild to light hurricane session.
switchsk8r@reddit
i know el ninos = less atlantic hurricanes, but with rising sea surface temps it only takes one large hurricane to slip through
JosBosmans@reddit
The news is not preparing anyone for what may happen this year and next.
How would a news channel go about that, though. :/
karabeckian@reddit
El Nino and hurricanes are inversly related.
Bandits101@reddit
Planet warming is seemingly progressing at a glacial pace but that is on a human timescale. Geologically it is an instant. Ever since FF burning has exploded, Earth has been trapping the equivalent of billions of atomic bombs of warmth.
Positive warming feedback loops will relentlessly do their thing. Warming will continues to increase, likely for millennia but the clock is ticking for higher life forms.
NO AMOUNT OF WINDMILLS AND ELECTRIC CARS WILL DISSIPATE THE STORED HEAT, it has to occur on a geological timescale. That’s vastly different to the blowtorch warming humans have caused.
Ice is melting at an unimaginable rate. Ice melt and ocean warming, together are equivalent to an approaching comet. The only way now to cool the Earth is to block the Sun and that’s ridiculous.
BadgerKomodo@reddit
We are so fucked
terrierhead@reddit
Proper fucked
Plane-Breakfast-8817@reddit
Yeah, before ‘zee Germans’ get there.
kingfofthepoors@reddit
we is what we is nothing we can do about it
nw342@reddit
Welp, its been a good run yall.....hopefully the next sentient species that develops here takes better care of mother earth
AccumulatedFilth@reddit
How is that possible?
We've been making everything more expensive for 20 years saying it was for climate change.
Sure that would've helped.
96-62@reddit
scale of Change .
scale of UK O
scale of problem OOO
OOOOOO
OOO
Ree_For_Thee@reddit
Oh sweet, global economic problems and worst climate ever?
Armouredmonk989@reddit
Summer air in early fall the silent comprehending of the ending of it all there it is again that funny feeling.
QueefBeefCletus@reddit
Cool. Cool cool cool.
mrblahblahblah@reddit
say the phrase Bart
SpaceCptWinters@reddit
Oh, stealing this:
'say the line, SaudiAramcoExxonChevronPetroChinaShell, say the line'
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
😔 *Faster Than Expected™ *
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/wanton_wonton_:
Current climate models indicate a strong likelihood (around 62%) that El Niño conditions will develop in 2026, with a significant chance of intensifying into a rare “super” event. Such events, defined by sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding ~2°C in the central and eastern Pacific, have historically driven severe global climate disruptions.
The consequences are profound and unevenly distributed. A strong El Niño can shift atmospheric circulation, intensifying extreme weather:
Severe drought and heat across Australia, parts of Africa, India, and the Amazon. Increased flood risk and extreme rainfall in regions such as the southern United States and parts of Asia.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1skake8/models_point_to_strongest_el_niño_event_in_140/ofxn5tx/
shezadaa@reddit
Well, the good news is that the Mango harvest would be epic this year.
Anjunabeats1@reddit
Well shit
wanton_wonton_@reddit (OP)
Current climate models indicate a strong likelihood (around 62%) that El Niño conditions will develop in 2026, with a significant chance of intensifying into a rare “super” event. Such events, defined by sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding ~2°C in the central and eastern Pacific, have historically driven severe global climate disruptions.
The consequences are profound and unevenly distributed. A strong El Niño can shift atmospheric circulation, intensifying extreme weather:
Severe drought and heat across Australia, parts of Africa, India, and the Amazon. Increased flood risk and extreme rainfall in regions such as the southern United States and parts of Asia.
kitkats124@reddit
~60% by the summer months, ~90% by fall from the most recent projections. Could be strong, might be super.
Sarcastic-Potato@reddit
Man I need to catch up on sleep.. When I was reading that headline I though it was like Heidi Klum pointing at a climate map