Naval blockade imposed on Iran after peace talks collapse
Posted by EsperaDeus@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 189 comments
Posted by EsperaDeus@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 189 comments
BigFreakingZombie@reddit
Time to blockade your blockade...
It would be hilarious if you didn't realize it means an economic catastrophe the likes of which we cannot even imagine. Then again it was hardly unexpected : neither the Iranian hardliners nor Israel really want peace. And Trump proved once again that he can't negotiate for shit even when his own power depends on it
Future-Excuse6167@reddit
Iran doesn't want a peace where US-Israel has a right to assassinate its leaders every few months, bomb its infrastructure at will, and impose crippling economic sanctions unilaterally.
It wants an actual peace where its treated like a sovereign nation, and it wants a deal from a party (Trump) with a noted history of tearing up not only deals Iran negotiated in good faith, but also violating agreements HE HIMSELF MADE.
Iran's bar for US concessions is understandably high given the history.
Jesus_Doner@reddit
And because of that, Iran is justified in getting those nukes.
EmsAreOverworkedLul@reddit
It's so wild that we've arrived at a point where rooting for the theocracy to get nukes is the morally correct option , what a fucked timeline.
Jesus_Doner@reddit
I don't even support the Iranian theocracy on an ideological level.
But I recognize the geopolitical reality that they're currently one of the few bulwarks of the Global South that can still stand up to the American imperialism and also keep its attack dog Israel in check. And given what was done to Venezuela and Cuba, I'm all up for it. Make that petrodollar scream.
EmsAreOverworkedLul@reddit
I can't really think of another, maybe Brazil?
InspiredPhoton@reddit
Brazil's military is a joke and the war culture in the country is zero, actually minus 10.
BendicantMias@reddit
I mean, you're ranked 11th in the world bro, that ain't bad - https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
Jesus_Doner@reddit
China
EmsAreOverworkedLul@reddit
I don't know if China is aligned with the global south, looking at the incursions into Phillipine waters and all their belt and road stuff, plunging large parts of africa and SEA into IMF esque wage vassalhood.
HiggsUAP@reddit
They've forgiven billions of those loans. Hardly IMF-esque
Maelger@reddit
China has never been global south. China is China and nothing else.
lniquitas@reddit
China is classified as a global south country by the UN.
Additional_Ad_3530@reddit
Unlikely, the problem in Latin America is a phenomenon known as cipayismo, a cipayo is a local collaborator who supports foreign nations before their own country.
In a war against USA all Brazilian right wingers would join USA, the same is true for all the countries between Mexico and Argentina.
All right wing parties in the region are basically Washington stooges.
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
The Middle East was in a precarious, but much more preferable position up till the October 7th attacks where Isreal and Iran’s proxies has thrown the region into chaos. The likes of the Houthis, Hezbollah, Assad Syria, and Hamas has only made the region much more unsafer alongside the Isrealis, they’re both imperialistic power but just not as capable as the United States in establishing relatively successful states like the Western aligned GCC.
It was only because of Hamas that Iran is in the position it is in regardless of whether they knew October 7th would take place or not. They are simply not an innocent player in this game and their own imperialist strategies came to bite them in the ass when the reality of Isreal attacking Hezbollah and Iran was unspeakable before the 2020s.
TheUnicornRevolution@reddit
I mean...
If Israel had lifted the blockade, stopped occupying Gaza, stopped annexing the West Bank, stopped summarily executing Palestinians through their "Mow the Lawn" policies, stopped detaining Palestinians without charge, maybe didn't build a prison specifically for children detained without charge, and stopped illegally blocking Palestinians right to return Hamas wouldn't have attacked on Oct 7th.
But you know. Sure. It's Hamas' fault. Why not.
NeonArlecchino@reddit
You're not putting enough blame on Israel since Netanyahu's government allowed Oct 7th to happen to further their own goals. They ignored the plans they found, ignored warnings during the night over increased movement, delayed the response, murdered their own people (Despite years to destroy evidence, Israel still rejects independent investigators to see the evidence), and may have even arranged for the music festival to be moved there the same day two hundred "commandos" were moved away from there. They could have stopped it if they wanted to.
travistravis@reddit
And for their international relations in this conflict they've been surprisingly level headed. Even previously (a year or so ago) when Israel attacked them, they gave an extremely minor retaliatory strike. Given warning, aimed only at a military installation, etc.
I despise the way they treat their people, but the US has a significant part in how the theocracy ended up in power to begin with.
ChillAhriman@reddit
I despise organized religion, and naturally, despise a religious-based regime twice as much, but I just can't find good arguments to argue that Iran isn't being rational in this conflict.
Zer_@reddit
Yeah. Iran may have a shitty regime but the US and Israel are worse, esoecially now that they're not as two faced about it.
godintraining@reddit
The fact that they are not two faced anymore is a big deal. It removes claiming ignorance from the people that execute their orders. The pilot bombing school kids cannot claim that their leaders lied to them anymore, they know exactly what they are doing.
coljung@reddit
Wow exactly what i've been thinking the last few weeks.
Trump and Israel made Iran look like the sane entity in all of this. Again, what a fucked up timeline we are living now.
Waldoh@reddit
The logical conclusion to the might makes right American foreign policy.
Everyone should have a nuke or you're not really a sovereign nation, just a vassal or waiting to be occupied or destroyed by the USA
agentchuck@reddit
This is exactly why Alberta's separatism movement makes no rational sense. This has to be the most successful disinformation campaign Canada has been the victim of. And that's saying something considering all election meddling we've seen.
Zer_@reddit
People still moan about Chinese influence when it was actually America the whole time and always was.
travistravis@reddit
Well, it's been India too. Pretty sure nowhere near as much, but it's definitely been there.
Jesus_Doner@reddit
Especially if you got any oil or rare earths in your country that you wish to nationalize.
travistravis@reddit
Or even that you don't want America to "liberate" for you.
loggy_sci@reddit
Plenty of sovereign nations don’t have nukes. This take is too extreme and pointless
Waldoh@reddit
Like Greenland?
loggy_sci@reddit
Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom Of Denmark. Facts are fun.
Waldoh@reddit
You're kind of proving my point. Trump can take Greenland and there's absolutely nothing the sovereign state of Denmark can do about it without nukes
half-baked_axx@reddit
I mean honestly any other form or government would involve bending over to the US and Isreal and handing over the keys to their economy. The CIA would never allow a democratic leader without strings, we quite literally annihilated half of Latin America's former leaders for that same reason.
EmsAreOverworkedLul@reddit
I don't think the CIA has teeth anymore like it used to, seems like one of those institutions that really got hollowed out for profit similarly to the Pentagon but worse because even less oversight. They haven't really done anything lately.
But yea i suppose a theocratic element is helpful in order to maintain the government through any amount of pressure.
Zer_@reddit
I think that's something that isn't being discussed enough is how America's 3 letter agencies start to overlap on tasks more and more, common in autocratic regimes.
smegabass@reddit
Nukes are only weapons when one side has them. Just ask Israel.
Master_Flash@reddit
There's nothing wild here. Israel is a theocracy too and they got their nuclear arsenal in secrecy. They never allowed an inspection on their nuclear arsenal, they never even fully admited to having it.
WiseBelt8935@reddit
it went ok for the UK
royal_dansk@reddit
Yeah, somewhat justified but, here's hoping they don't pursue that as it would give Israel and the US more reason to pursue their agenda and reason for the EU, NATO, and the West to ally with the US and Israeli once again
waiver@reddit
Not many people talk about changing North Korea's regime these days; that's the difference between states negotiating with you and ending up stabbed in the anus like Gaddafi.
babyoil4diddy@reddit
It wants a peace where Hezbollah is free to bomb Israel without any consequences.
YourFuture2000@reddit
Given the fact that Israel has been bombings Líbano long before Hezbollah existed, and that Israel is the only country in the region trying to colonies others territories. I think if Israel just stop it Hezbollah would also. Specially because Hezbollah has bomb Israel after Israel provocation.
babyoil4diddy@reddit
Idk how you missed the news for the last few decades but if someone is lobbing mortars and tickets at my civilians that kinda makes it my right to go over there and stop them
cptjeff@reddit
What if somebody is lobbing 2000lb bombs and white phosphorus at civilians? Asking for a genocidal colonial ethnostate.
babyoil4diddy@reddit
Eh you gotta pick a side. I'd rather pick the one that was patient for several decades and is trying to fix the situation all at once
cptjeff@reddit
What world are you living in? Israel invaded the area, ethnically cleansed the people living there, and for its entire existence has been extremely aggressive and expansionist and have continued their campaign of ethnic cleansing with absolutely no pauses.
voidox@reddit
it's another hasbara bot, they live in zionist fantasy land where Israel is always the victim and has never done anything ever, they legit act like Israel was founded through magical peace and such the way they blame anything and everything but Israel.
ChillAhriman@reddit
Israel was so patient and good-willed with those savage Muslims that they literally murdered their own prime minister who was trying to reach a peaceful solution with Palestine, and then put in power the one politician who had supported a rally where protesters called for his death.
chillichampion@reddit
And US and Israel wants a peace where they can bomb Iran and Lebanon without any consequences.
babyoil4diddy@reddit
I swear, you guys have to be getting paid by Iran. For my entire life there have been videos of mortars and rockets flying overhead during Israeli weddings out of Gaza and Lebanon. Is Israel expected to live in perpetuity having to run to bomb shelters every hour?
chillichampion@reddit
Let me know where I can get paid. Are you getting paid by Israel? Sign me up, I’ll spread propaganda for Israel if the price is good.
GreeboBirb@reddit
I fucking wish it did kkkrakkka
Shane-8300@reddit
You should understand that, Amerisrael expects the same
babyoil4diddy@reddit
Why is Hezbollah assumed to be part of the free state of Iran?
Shane-8300@reddit
I don't assume it is
babyoil4diddy@reddit
Iran does, that's the problem
Mando177@reddit
Except one of the sticking points is that Iran wants peace in Lebanon while Israel doesn’t
adminofreditt@reddit
It wants peace where it can start infinite proxy wars without being attacked in response
chillichampion@reddit
Unlike US and Israel which won’t wage proxy wars.
kaptainkooleio@reddit
You’re not wrong about an economic catastrophe. For America, a lot of the impact from the closure of the strait isn’t from a shortage of oil, it’s from global prices rising when other countries can’t get oil. What this means is that the little oil that did get out (along with a lot of market manipulation) helped keep oil prices lower than they would have been normally. Completely shutting down the strait is gonna make those prices start rising again, and potentially at a more rapid rate as strategic reserves get further depleted. They’re gonna have to do A LOT of market manipulation to even attempt to keep prices “affordable” and even then they’re just kicking the can down the road while further strengthening Irans influence in the region. Can’t wait to see $200 a barrel because it’s practically inevitable at this point.
BigFreakingZombie@reddit
The question is whether 200 dollars a barrel mean that Trump gets royally fucked in the midterms or it radicalizes MAGA even further into wanting to punish Iran and Europe and God knows who else.
kaptainkooleio@reddit
It will radicalize them further. Every controversy has shaved off some support but by and large the cult gets further and further stratified into supporting him. He’ll get to 20% approval, but it’ll be a solid 20% where he could literally stab a maga voter in the face and that maga voter will apologize for getting in the way of the knife.
Green_Space729@reddit
I don’t think that’s true on the hardliners point.
Iran definitely wants peace. They just aren’t capitulate to trumps and Israel’s unreasonable demands.
Ok_Art6263@reddit
Iranian people sure, Iran government?
Doubtful, they spend decades trying to make Israel cease to exist but not being bombed by US made them have a mutual agreement.
Trump is a massive fucking idiot.
BigFreakingZombie@reddit
Parts of the Iranian regime definitely want peace. However for many of them those calls of "dying in the service of Islam " and "jihad against the infidels to the very end" are more than figures of speech and they absolutely want to continue the war even if they realize the final result is inevitable.
MechaCoqui@reddit
Be easier if Israel just stopped killing the moderates in Iran’s government.
balvonas11@reddit
Be easier if Iran did not fund and create terrorist cells which kills Israeli civilians
Future-Excuse6167@reddit
One could even argue that religious extremism in Iran was driven by the brutal extinction of leftists during the US-installed dictatorship.
People have an instinct for freedom. If you eliminate political outlets, that urge for independence will flower in religious extremism.
recreationalgluttony@reddit
There will be no lasting peace with the status quo as it is.
It just delays the next attack from Israel or the next sanction from the U.S. by a few months.
America's attack on them is the perfect justification to push for better terms using the leverage it always had, but didn't have a plausible reason to use.
Any escalation from here is Trump losing control of a situating he created.
Upbeat_Commission124@reddit
Shouldn’t have started the way by sacrificing 200 schoolchildren in the first place.
Status_Winter@reddit
Saying Iran doesn’t want peace when they were the ones who just got surprise attacked when they were expecting negotiations - is bullshit only an American would swallow.
SomeDumRedditor@reddit
Reading comprehension is hard.
He said the Iranian hardliners don’t want peace. Which is materially different than Iran doesn’t want peace.
Ok-Warning-7494@reddit
Apparently reading comprehension is even harder than you thought.
The hardliners want peace on their terms. His point stands.
It doesn’t make sense to say any element of Iranian society doesn’t want peace given they were the ones being attacked. The differences are between what they are willing to concede.
kolitics@reddit
Iran's blockade was a selective blockade that allowed them to profit and incentivized delay in negotiation.
OptimisticRealist__@reddit
I really hope India, China, Pakistan, Europe just ignore this moron and call his bluff. What is he going to do? Shoot at NATO allies? Shoot at China?
Trollimperator@reddit
Why would he shoot at anything? They just threaten shipping companies with seizure of thier ships. Noone will ignore this. Having your ship grounded by the USA is likely worse than having it sunk for those companies. Considering how insurrance works.
OptimisticRealist__@reddit
You dont think countries would send army ships to protect their respective shipping companies ships? Ofc they would. And considering Iran only views the US and Israel as their enemies in this war, it would be a probable and brilliant move to allow all other countries to have their navy ships enter the strait to safeguard their shipping companies against US aggression.
Trollimperator@reddit
Everytime someone says OFC, without any explanation, they appear like a loudmouth to everyone grown up.
You have a fleet of tankers, buying and selling independently from states. There is no "we protect our ships" Those ships are operating eighter under the cheapest flag or the flag with the least government control. Noone calls those tankers "our tankers" so noone will intervene militarily.
splader@reddit
You're seriously tone policing in friggen/r/anime_titties?
this_dudeagain@reddit
No they won't
chillichampion@reddit
They won’t do shit against the US. Only Russia and china can call the bluff.
Dan6erbond2@reddit
India and Pakistan have nukes.
Dragoncat_3_4@reddit
(He's obviously gonna TACO or his advisors are gonna distract him with a chew toy or something but still)
Can you imagine if he actually does and that's how WW3 starts? Future students in History class are gonna be tearing out hair by the chunks when studying for tests.
_LordDaut_@reddit
Someone explain like I'm 5 please. (The article is paywalled)
Isn't "we're closing the strait" Iran's move?
Is he trying to blockade it so that other countries like.China or Spain who have been let through aren't anymore and cutoff even more of Iran's trade/income and win a war of attrition?
He thinks these other countries won't pressure him instead?
TomTomXD1234@reddit
I do not see how the US can just tell china or russia to stop their ships and not pass. They will pass if they want. I do not think the US would dare fire on Chinese or Russian ships
Apprehensive_Emu9240@reddit
Russia gains in that it increases demand for their own product. China gains in terms of international prestige as they maneuver themselves as an alternative to US-hegemony. So I doubt either will do anything, especially since it's a risky to counteract an actual madman. The great impending doom on both as well as the rest of the world however is that this will lead to a global economic collapse.
JarasM@reddit
The Russians didn't have any means for along time now to do a lot of the stuff they say they'd do. Doesn't stop the US under Trump from always standing down in any confrontation with Russia.
agentchuck@reddit
The US didn't stop a Russian oil tanker going through their Cuban blockade. The US doesn't have any desire to oppose Russian shipping.
chillichampion@reddit
Russia might call the bluff but china wont do shit. They’re shit scared of the US.
BendicantMias@reddit
Lol China is THE country that has stood up to Trump and got him to back down every time. Unlike Europe, which bent over backwards in his trade war and signed a humiliating 'deal', China simply hit back and got its way. Don't mistake restraint for cowardice. Where most knelt to Trump, they never did.
TomTomXD1234@reddit
TBH, China is not affected much and they are busy controlling the Taiwanese opposition party which seems to be going well.
floydiankabir@reddit
What happens when you block anything from sea to reach the port? think star wars 1 - basically you slowly strangulate the economy. It’s a countet blockade to prevent even iran from using the strait for oil. Now that means no oil from gulf for all. (with or without toll) But if a navy escort comes for a tanker, the US has no authority to shoot it down as it’s in international waters and considered an act of war. Is the US desperate enough to risk involving China, what if they shoot down China’s navy escort? Or will they let it pass, making the blockade useless? will china try their hand depending on how desperate they are for the oil imports? this is a dangerous game. The us is powerful sure but this is not the pacific. Neither can the US do without imports from China
imunfair@reddit
Yeah, he's bad at strategy though. By cutting off the strait completely he'll cause gas prices to skyrocket even further since its a relatively inelastic commodity - you can stop going out so much but you can't stop driving to work. So to cut another 10% usage off the global supply is going to take some serious price increases.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump caves and pivots to putting a second US toll on any ships Iran lets through the strait rather than blocking them completely. There's also a small chance that China sends some naval assets to the region to ensure their ships pass unmolested.
Dragoncat_3_4@reddit
A US toll in that region is too batshit insane, even for him. How is gonna enforce it anyway, bomb the (presumably still allied because NATO) Spanish ships?
imunfair@reddit
Seize and hold them until they pay the toll perhaps
Random0732@reddit
What if the EU had a important Straight that they could use to get leverage over the Americans...somewhere like Gibraltar, perhaps.
imunfair@reddit
Three actually - Gibraltar, English Channel, and Øresund
BendicantMias@reddit
Iran gets a pass cos it was attacked, and it is their waters at least. If the US starts extracting a toll on shipping in waters that don't even belong to it, the rest of the world will tell them to go to hell, refuse to pay, and perhaps start seizing American shipping near them to extract tolls of their own. Suddenly the US Navy will have a hundred piracy hotspots to respond to all over the world, and even the most loyalist admirals will tell Trump to fuck off over trying to handle that mess.
Dragoncat_3_4@reddit
Can't imagine that going over well with anyone
Mando177@reddit
You think he’s thought that far ahead?
Apprehensive_Emu9240@reddit
This way Iran can't ask a passage fee. It's a risky move. On the one hand Iran loses its leverage against other countries, on the other hand the US is now using that leverage against itself. It remains to be seen what's going to happen, but in the short term I doubt any nation in the world is going to counteract Trump.
Random0732@reddit
There's a popular saying in Portuguese, "criar dificuldade para vender facilidade". Something like "Create the hard way to sell the easy way". That's what Iran is doing: Create a fee to everyone, than cut a deal to ensure free passage in exchange of something.
They got France to veto a resolution allowing the use of force to open Hormuz by allowing safe pass to a French ship.
Apprehensive_Emu9240@reddit
I'm not sure why you make this statement. I did not offer any judgement on Iran's actions. I was judging the Americans
kolitics@reddit
Iran was using selectively letting ships through for certain countries as leverage. to collect a toll, and to profit from selling their oil at higher prices. This gives them an economically beneficial walk away position in negotiation and leaves it to the US to either extend cease fire or follow through with a threat that hurts their people more than their leadership. This puts on more pressure and takes away their incentive to delay.
PropJoesChair@reddit
They were charging a couple million dollars per ship, depending on how many barrels were on board. East and South Asian countries are particularly dependent on oil passing through the Hormuz, and are paying the tolls and funding the IRGC. Consider the hundred or so ships that would pass through per day (although obviously this is highly illegal according to international laws on shipping). This is what Trump is now trying to strong arm. Funny how the US is one of the least dependent countries in the world on the oil that travels through this area, but are so happy to fuck around with global stability and energy supply/cost.
They're doing this not because they support Iran, but the consequences of the strait being closed are catastrophic without the energy supply. India, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Bangladesh are all obliterating their reserves right now and will last a matter of weeks until there's no oil left in the country.
What fucks me off is that the Iranian regime and have never been proven more how much they need nukes to preserve their sovereignty. I hate the regime, but look at it from a realist perspective. If they walk away without nukes now they might as well welcome Israeli and American troops with their door open. They'll never agree to it after everything that has happened.
kolitics@reddit
The US is there now and really doesn’t want to use troops even without Iranian nukes. Even refusing to stop enriching they war is still very unpopular in US. They stop enriching and funding proxies and the US doesn’t care about Iran.
Random0732@reddit
Unless the USian proxies in the region keep attacking Iranian proxies.
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
He will stop Iran selling their oil, hoping this will bring them to negotiations. So basically it’s a matter of who will flinch first, Iran without Oil money or the entire world economy putting pressure on Trump. My money is on Trump flinching of course, he already went ballistic last weekend
Random0732@reddit
The USAN will do what when a Chinese vessel comes out of the Straight? Bomb it like it did to the Carribean fisher boats? Seize it like the Russian ones? China is already delaying inspections on Panamanian ships.
It seems like Trump really wants to give China a casus belli. He already tried with the Russians but they didn't bite the bait.
_LordDaut_@reddit
If anything Trump seems to be very dependent on the Market.... he can fluctuate it and manipulate so that some people make a shit ton of money, but he can't afford a long term downturn.... this seems dumb.. my money is on TACO again.
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
Taco is guaranteed, the question is how long will they mess the world economy up for. If they bomb again and hit the refineries and extraction plants, they will mess up the world economy of years
debasing_the_coinage@reddit
Yes, he's just trying to see how many principles of international law he can flagrantly violate before there are actually consequences. The way things are going, we're going to see a nuclear exchange. Time for Europe and China to set aside their differences and put sanctions on the United States because honestly it's probably the best chance Americans have of coming out of this with our constitution intact.
Random0732@reddit
If Latin America is the US back yard, western Europe is the front yard. Neither EU or the UK will not do shit against the United States or Israel other than "joint statements".
Even the air space denial is respected just beacuse the B-52s can go over the Mediterranean.
MC_chrome@reddit
Why not off Trump?
BendicantMias@reddit
That's not their job, that's Americans job. The most heavily armed populace in the world - with more guns than people - and they still can't stand up to their president? Isn't the much touted point of the second (?) amendment (or whichever it is) to let the citizenry fight against tyranny?
Meanwhile far less armed and poorer nations like Nepal and Bangladesh have managed to overthrow their govts. when they got too autocratic. Many dying for it too. When are Americans going to display the same defiance?
YourFuture2000@reddit
It is actually because most Americans are middle class are still satisfied enough with their life style, even if through debts, and even believed they are more privileged than other countries in this regard. Any group trying to take Trump out by armed force will start a civil war and enjoy less the lifestyle that makes them a little satisfied.
The countries you mentioned people has much less to lose and more to gain in a civil war because there are a lot more people under poverty line. And because of that more people would be United to take away a dictator.
Only after most Americans start to feel less privileged and unhappy with their lifestyle and living condition, which means hunger and dying in winter, they become willing to start a civil war.
flesjewater@reddit
'all you had to do was pay us enough to live'
MisteeLoo@reddit
Because a good portion of the country loves what he’s doing. Civil war would break out, and the military would be expected to attack citizenry. Bloodbaths, mayhem, riots, loss of supply chains, and worse to follow.
flesjewater@reddit
A civil war because of Hitlers assassination in 1939 would've been a vastly preferable outcome for most of the world.
BendicantMias@reddit
Uhh, I don't know if you know this, but Sheikh Hasina was the leader of one of two parties that have dominated Bangladeshi politics since the nation came to be. She technically wasn't a dictator, she just abused her position similar to how, say, Orban in Hungary does. All to say she had large sections of the country on her side as well. It wasn't some unified peoples' revolt against one woman - she very much had her backers, and still does even now after her party has been thrown out of power.
Bangladeshis still overthrew her. There's never a simple revolution. Hell even Bashar Al-Assad in Syria had his supporters, particularly Alawites in the coastal regions.
whatisthisnowwhat1@reddit
Oh well..... though that isn't the actual reason, the actual reason is you all love your lives too much to rock the boat.
anhangera@reddit
True answer right there, americans got too complacent and confortable inside their consumerist culture to ever do anything about their government
heckin_miraculous@reddit
It was all marketing by the NRA, to boost gun sales.
The people who care deeply about society and about governance (in other words, about each other) are not the ones stockpiling weapons and memorizing highlights from the constitution.
LightningSilvr@reddit
You kill the man but not the idea. Better that Trump's entire legacy be faced with a considerable global backlash so that the message gets across for something like this to never be tolerated. He's already set an extremely high bar for terrible leadership, the last thing the world needs is someone following in his footsteps and doing it worse in every regard, but accounting for Trump's flaws.
flesjewater@reddit
The idea would get killed in the subsequent civil war and balkanization of the US. It can't be repaired at this point.
agentchuck@reddit
A nuclear exchange between who? Would China or Russia actually return fire if the US launched on Iran?
SurturOfMuspelheim@reddit
Would we want some old ass decrepit fascist constitution to be intact?
babyoil4diddy@reddit
Who enforces international law?
everShiki@reddit
Correct. Though it seems to be under the guise of waiting on "mine clearing" and will be opened once its confirmed safe is my understanding. Will be interesting to see if any country calls the bluff.
BendicantMias@reddit
Mines are just one of the things blocking the Strait to begin with. Iran can attack any ship it wants from the coastline. That's why any opening of the Strait operation involved a land invasion to take over the whole coastline. Trump is doing everything he can to avoid sending in troops cos he's too chicken to risk the mess everyone is telling him that will lead to. So he tries harebrained schemes like this to look tough, while risking as little as he can.
Kaymish_@reddit
It's probably less that trump is too chicken, and more that there is no viable way to do it. The usa would have to pull it's entire fleet into the area off the southern coast of Iran as well as assembling a massive force in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to make a 2 pronged assault from the north west and from the south. They will take horrific casualties the whole way to the mountains and then get bogged down there while the strait will still be closed because the Iranians can fire missiles and drones over the mountains and keep the strait too dangerous for any shipping to move. So the US military will have to invade further and then it's still taking hits from drones and missiles so they have to invade even more. And while they're doing this oil consumption is through the roof while supply is all being destroyed. It's not a viable concept.
heckin_miraculous@reddit
Just one point I would argue: Trump is not too chicken to declare a land invasion and watch both US and Iranian deaths start to stack up by the thousands. I believe he'd do that in a second, because he's insane and hateful.
Probably the only thing stopping him is what maturity remains in the military leadership.
ChillAhriman@reddit
And they're replacing the military leadership with loyalists...
dingleberry2025@reddit
All Iran will need to do is blow up one of their own boats and say woops apparently there's mines again and his whole mine clearing thing gets torpedoed
Rindan@reddit
Everyone actually found it kind of weird that United States was bombing the shit out of Iran, but still letting them engage in commerce, even as Iran prevent everyone else. It actually makes more sense to stop Iran from being able to use the Strait if no one else can. Why would you let your enemy engage in commerce while they are preventing you from doing the same?
Will the countries that we're using the Strait with Iran support be upset? Probably, but I don't think Donald Trump gives a shit if China is upset.
All of that said, I don't think it's going to work. I suspect that Iran was actually surprised that the US let it continue to trade for as long as they did, and the continued trade has just been a surprise windfall.
The problem is that Donald Trump is a fucking moron, and so has no coherent strategy after the, "bomb them until they agree to everything" strategy failed. Now that he has stuck his dick in it and can't get it out, I think he has gone too far to find any good solution out, even if he didn't have crippling personality defects that make negotiations nearly impossible. He has managed to maneuver the United States into such a position that even a smart and intelligent person would be hard-pressed to find a solution that didn't leave the United States in a worst geostrategic position than it was before Donald Trump started this idiocy.
_LordDaut_@reddit
Even in Ukraine Russian pipelines through Ukraine continued to work 2022-2024 (end of).
US doesn't trade through the Strait the "everyone else" were those not in war. When other countries interests exist this really isn't such a shoker.
The whole point of Iran closing the strait was to cause oil prices to skyrocket. By closing even more of the supply who's interests are being served?
Moreover Trump should care if China will get upset or no.
The only possible rationale is to believe they can quickly win the war by cutting off more of.Iran's trade - which is..... unlikely.
Rindan@reddit
Ukraine needed EU and US support. If they didn't, they would have shut down those pipes. Higher gas prices is nothing compared to your enemy getting the full profit from it. If the US was looking for EU support, they wouldn't have attacked Iran without consulting them. If the US was looking for EU support, Trump would change his rhetoric to something other than threatening them. Leaving the Strait open for Iran wasn't some masterful gambit to get other countries to like the US, it was to try and keep oil prices down.
The US trades through the Straight. Oil isn't the only thing coming out of the Gulf. More than that, oil is a global commodities. It might be great for Exxon that the world is buying more US oil, but its horrible for US consumers who are extremely pissed off about it.
Trump isn't trying to reopen the Strait because he is worried about how other countries will respond. Trump is trying to reopen the Strait because he is rightfully terrified by how the US economy will respond.
Iran's contributions to keeping oil prices slightly lower is not worth more than the fact that Iran is rolling in money and can use that money to rearm. Unless Trump's plan is total capitulation, letting Iran roll around in money that it will use against the US isn't worth dropping gas prices a buck or two.
Why? What is China going to do that Trump should care about?
Trump's already in a no-win situation unless Iran is secretly internally far weaker than they appear to be and are about to collapse (very doubtful). If he is going to negotiate his defeat, he might as well gather all of his cards. US control of the seas is one of his cards. He wasn't getting anything by letting Iran continue to collect money and control the Strait. He might as well take that away as its something he can surrender in negotiating his humiliating defeat, or a point of pressure he is dumb enough to continue the war. Either way, there is little reason let Iran have free sea access until there is a settlement. Iran getting that money isn't worth the small drop in global oil prices it produces, especially when coastal Asia get the bulk of the discount, not the US.
_LordDaut_@reddit
And it's a great idea to piss off the rest? When you use their bases for military attacks? How does that track? Are we so sure in strongarming everyone that we just don't care?
Again it's not just "Iran's contribution" it's all.of Gulf states and their trade partners... 20% of the global supply only a minority of which is Iranian. It's not Iran's "small contribution that would slughtly lower the prices.... if anything Iran's actions would only slightly increase tge prices but a complete blockade for Iraq, Kuweit, UAE Oil and LNG will significantly increase the price beyond Iran's wildest dreams....
Is this a serious question? Rare earth materials and critical mineral exports come to mind. Dunping treasuries. Other trade agreements with Japan to do the same since Japan is very much affected by the blockade of the Strait. It can send it's own Naval assets to make sure their ships aren't harrassed.
That is the same thing. Why do you think the US markets would respond in a negative way? Because supply eill go down while.global demans will.be high.
Rindan@reddit
No, I think strong arming everyone is extremely stupid, but I am obviously not in charge. If Trump's goal is to win international support, the first step would be for him to change his rhetoric towards Europe. Charming everyone clearly isn't the strategy of the US though, so its dumb to try and "charm" everyone with slightly lower oil prices while screaming that you will kill them all.
No one trading any significant oil volume out of the Strait except for Iran. Even with the Strait "open" under Iran's supervision, almost all oil and gas has been Iran's, and its still under 10% its normal volume. Iran is definitely profiting way more off their control of the Strait then the US is getting in reduced oil prices.
All of those threats are double edged swords that cut China as well, which is why China has used them sparingly for that very reason. What demand is China going to make? Allow Iranian shipping while Iran denies the rest of the Gulf shipping? Nah. It's dumb that Trump got into the position he is in, but stuck where he is, Iranian trade is now a bargaining chip his band of idiot negotiators can give up if trying to negotiate their defeat, or pressure if they are (stupidly) still trying to break Iran through coercion.
They are related, but its not the same thing. Iranian oil going to China and pulling pressure off of China to reign in their client state while also refilling Iranian coffers is not worth the slight price drop it would produce in the US. Its not an entirely bad thing for the US if China feels pain from this, as China is in a position to push Iran for an agreement.
_LordDaut_@reddit
And the will.use them when their econony is threatened just like it was during the Tariff fiasco. They're going to demand that their trade be it with UAE, Kuwait, Qatar or Iran continue unimpeded.
This is not true completely Iran hasn't been trading in significant way either. And while Iran has recently been extorting a toll, the majority of it again wasn't of Iranian origin.
They are noy hust related they have a causal relationship. The US economy and the World economy are very tightly knit.... unlike say Russian and World's or Iranian and World's or even Chinese.
More likely China will try to pressure the cause of the whole.fiasco --- the US.
Rindan@reddit
They can certainly try and demand that, but I doubt Trump is going to care. As dumb as he is, he realizes that letting Iran continue to trade while blocking everyone else is a stupid thing to give away in exchange for "good will". If Iran wants its trade back, it will have to be a part of the negotiations. It isn't much, but it is something. If Iran wants to try and extract a price, they are going to have to do it directly.
This is untrue. Most of the trade Iran has let through has in fact been Iranian trade, and Iran's trade revenue has gone UP since the conflict began.
Like I said, its a pretty minor hurt for the US to cut off Iranian trade compared to what Iran gets out of it. Being interconnected doesn't change the fact that the US is more isolated from Iranian oil price contributions than China is. The US isn't being crazy for accepting oil prices going a little higher in exchange for preventing Iran from making a massive windfall of cash that they can then promptly use to rearm and rebuild.
This conflict is obviously straight up good for Russia. Russia's only real revenue source these days is resource extraction, and oil and gas in particular. Russia will continue to help Iran because this is purely good for them.
Uh, this will definitely hurt Iran more than anyone else in the world. Iran's economy is completely fucked with the US blockade. Iran can survive it not because they are insulated, but because they have no choice and they see the conflict as existential. It will definitely hurt though.
...and World's or even Chinese.
Uh, no. Both the world and China are significantly more fucked economically by this than the US, which has a strong domestic market and huge domestic oil resources. China in particular is proper fucked because they import so much oil from the Middle East and rely so much on trade to get rid of their over production. This is very bad for China. That won't make American voters happy though, as China getting fucked over worse than the US doesn't help the average American citizen.
_LordDaut_@reddit
What is he gonna do, impound Chinese ships? What if they're escorted by their own navy? Trump nit "caring" doean't matter. Eapecially sincr apparently you see how they would want it open more?
Uh. That's not what I said. Said US economy is in a more direct causal relatuonship with the world economy. China has worked very hard to diversify its exports - US is inly ~14% of it. And try to make itself as immune to sanctions as it can get.
If only the world worked in Vacuum. Oil prices going up id very very bad for the US, yes the US and a fee other countries with dkmeatic reserves will be relatively fine--- but this may destroy the dollar as the currency for oil trade. The death of Petrodollar will be incredibly bad for the US.
whatisthisnowwhat1@reddit
The petrodollar collapsing because of your own dumb country will be the funniest thing to happen this decade. The posts by americans if it happens are going to be even funnier
FederalSandwich1854@reddit
It sounds like a good idea until you consider how bad oil prices will get, while will do alot more harm to both the global and US economy. We would enter a global depression
Rindan@reddit
The Straight already dumped off over 90% of its traffic. Letting Iran have the remaining 10% means they get rich, while having minimal impact on world oil prices. Global depression is already baked in, the real question is if Iran will get rich during that time or not. Cutting off sea trade prevents Iran from profiting from the decline. Trump has done a lot of very dumb things, but this isn't one of them. If he is going to continue the pointless and doomed fight, denying the trade at least inhibits Iran's ability to rearm. If Trump is going to negotiate his humiliating defeat, holding trade is something he can give up in negotiations.
Either way, allow Iran to control trade through the Strait is dumb without an agreement. Granted, the dumbest thing of all was Trump starting the conflict and being too stupid to realize this very outcome was extremely likely.
tommytwolegs@reddit
90% of traffic does not necessarily mean 90% of oil
Rindan@reddit
Yes, the amount of oil going through is even less than that. Most of what has gone through has been cargo containers.
RedTulkas@reddit
The US just unilaterally decided to fck the Philippines, Malaysia, Japan etc
The fallout from this is gonna be enormous
Rindan@reddit
The US fucked a lot more than a few countries Pacific Rim. The US fucked the entire world, and has fucked itself as well as it has fucked anyone else. Yeah, the US won't eat the full economic pain due to a little cushioning from domestic oil production, but it will eat more than enough pain and the losses in terms of expended military equipment will more than make up the difference; to say nothing of its absolutely destroyed soft power.
chillichampion@reddit
But enforcing a blockade on the strait raises the oil and gas prices even more which is against US interests.
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
The war is pretty unpopular amongst the American public (based on polls) from the very onset, which gives Iran an incredible amount of leverage knowing the American public won’t tolerate normal war time losses or even mobilize sufficient troops since this whole situation could be seen as avoidable by the electorate. Thus, an limited ground campaign and immense air strikes is all the U.S can really do at the moment, which would be fine against weaker powers, but an regional player like Iran would need a lot more direct pressure that than to capitulate.
OutlawSundown@reddit
He's taking their card so that he has all the cards now because he has dementia and is incompetent.
GothicGolem29@reddit
I believe the logic is to prevent Iran collecting tolls from those wanting to go through but its a very stupid idea as the cost of stopping those tolls would be immense
Biscotti-Own@reddit
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/12/trump-announces-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-after-iran-talks-collapse-00868375
It's as dumb as it sounds
uknownix@reddit
I'm more confused in why he's punishing ships that paid the fee... They just want their stuff. The ships that passed fee free should be the ones he's looking at.
Anyway, E ok elites gonna buynm the dip, followed by "good news" then sell the pump.
EvoFume@reddit
Potatoe_Potahto@reddit
"Hey stop sinking the blockade ships it's not fair"
L_viathan@reddit
Okay so how does a blockade work? Like what would happen if a Spanish ship just kept on going through? Is the US Navy directed just blast everything out of the water? Would they even be willing to do that?
chillichampion@reddit
Yes, they will threaten to seize it and nobody except Russia and china are strong enough to call the US bluff.
Czart@reddit
What is muscovy going to challenge them with, tetanus from rust on kuznetsov? China at least has aircraft carriers.
Xanchush@reddit
Nuclear subs.
Czart@reddit
Shoving a nuclear sub into a narrow, relatively shallow straight... Excellent idea, they really should do that lol.
RedTulkas@reddit
They are gonna go full pirate and board the ship
floydiankabir@reddit
Everyone is missing the point. Iran can survive for months in the situation where everyone bleeds. The way oil demand is, it’s a war of attrition for a crisis that will explode when prices jump a threshold. How much is the US population itself willing to support before Iran folds, 150 dollars? , 200 dollars? It’s in China’s interest to let the US destroy the world order it spent more than half a century building. When power grids collapse, or populations in developing countries start dying en masse, will they blame iran or the US , who will probably just say to buy oil from them smugly. If there is not enough fertilizer for india to meet its food security demands, maybe Iran will be pressured, but the US will be punished for the next successive governments long after this lunatic is dead
Otis_Inf@reddit
yeah for their own imports, they can use the Caspian sea and the countries bordering that, or via Pakistan's land border. The oil exports will be stopped perhaps for a while, but in a sense that's not that bad for Iran as well, as that uncertainty will drive up the price, which is exactly what they want.
adnanssz@reddit
it was free before war, iran have nothing to lose. if they can charge the fee it will be good for them, if they can't charge a fee it just back to the before war period..
Basicaly iran in advantage posisition, while USA annualy lose power diplomatic againts rest of the world.
BunNGunLee@reddit
It also helps their already severely struggling economy from before this war.
cmrd_msr@reddit
Trump is doing a great job. He's putting the United States in the place it deserves in the world. This would have happened one way or another, but Trump operates according to the UNIX philosophy (if the system must fail, let it fail loud and fast).
lolthenoob@reddit
If India/China/ Pakistan calls their bluff.... It will be interesting
Either can escorts with military vessels/jets.... Or just tanker with Chinese flag... Just transit and see If USA dares to shoot.
Let's see how it goes.
Trollimperator@reddit
There will be diplomatic fallout. But i dont think, for examble, China would be reckless enough to intervene. Trump is very irrational and dangerous in this situation. The Iran war will likely end his presidency and his political career. There is just no certainty about what he will do. He truely is a madman. China is in no way positioned to handle a fight, they then might have started, in the Indian Ocean.
This likely will get resolved by economic pressure.
Reasonable-Ad4770@reddit
This is the scariest part though, that everybody's strategy is that's last Trump presidency and midterms are soon. It's all true but the damage already done. And who knows what other erratic ideas he has, he might really try to take Greenland
finalattack123@reddit
They don’t need to shoot the vessel. They can board it and seize it.
RedTulkas@reddit
Will be interesting to see if the US turns into pirates
chillichampion@reddit
US was already pirating Venezuelan and Iranian ships since a long time.
RedTulkas@reddit
Sure but now it's hitting all of its allies, including every one of chinas neighbors
Mando177@reddit
If they’re government operated ships it wouldn’t be hard to have armed guards or escorts nearby
MaybeTheDoctor@reddit
I’m sure that will go down well with friends in the region. Imagining that Saudi paid over $10b to have this guy elected, and they get this?
Tuesday comes, after Saudis had a word with Trump, and this will all be behind us.
Blackout38@reddit
Well at least the impact will be minimal. All ships started diverting from the region for the US last week. Hopefully this is an escalation without escalation and peace can still be achieved.
RedTulkas@reddit
I m interested to see if Japan/Pakistan/Philippines/India/China actually tests this blockade
Is the US really gonna resort to piracy
Blackout38@reddit
At the moment their tankers are headed to US so there couldn’t be piracy situation unless that changes. They probably wouldn’t test it with their navies either but it will be interesting to see how that may change in the coming weeks.
RedTulkas@reddit
All Chinese tankers are headed to the US?
Blackout38@reddit
Yep according to the Bloomberg this morning.
BAKREPITO@reddit
Whatever happened to UNCLOS everyone was citing to feign moral outrage? How dare Iran blockade the strait etc? Went out the window with DADDY's whims. I'm looking forward to see what Rutte has to say about this.
ThevaramAcolytus@reddit
It's hilarious that he actually tried to put on the flimsiest, most see-through facade ever of "We don't actually care about the strait! Other countries are more negatively affected and should care more! They need to care more than we do! Because we don't care at all. Or barely. Maybe a tiny smidge.....OPEN THE STRAIT OR THE WORLD WILL END!!!! GRRRRR!"
Who in the flying fuck does he think that he is fooling....at all?
His communications have started to sound like a schizophrenic or a middle school boy angrily mashing keyboard keys playing video games on the computer trading insults with strangers for how little....rationality? Legitimacy? Coherence? Continuity? his constant and ever-changing bluffs and boasts and threats and trash talk have any more at this point.
GrahminRadarin@reddit
His rhetoric and even his manner of speech has been getting more disorganized, distracted and nonsensical by the day. I heard a voice clip from his first term, and he sounds almost like a different person now. I think he's just getting old and having some cognitive issues because of that, but I don't think he realizes that and no one else wants to tell him.
Best-and-Blurst@reddit
The US can't get its way, so now they want their secondary objective of destabilising and sowing as much chaos as possible in the EU and Gulf States.
alkbch@reddit
Let's see how long this lasts, if it's even put in place. My bet is on TACO Trump supposedly imposed a naval blockade on Cuba, and yet a Russian ship made it through a couple of weeks ago.
RingEducational5039@reddit
Trump (April 6): "Open the f***in' strait!"
Trump (April 12): "The US is going to start BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz"
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