Don’t buy Mac Studio now.

Posted by JacketDangerous9555@reddit | LocalLLaMA | View on Reddit | 49 comments

I've been totally obsessed with local models lately, and with some cybersecurity projects that need to run locally, I'm gearing up to grab a Mac Studio—staring at this page every day. And I just found out!!!

Last month, after Apple quietly took the 512G off the shelves, today! The 256G one is unavailable too.

I'm guessing the M5 series Mac Studio is about to drop any minute now, probably within the next one or two months. Can't wait for the 512G to come back on sale

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

Or.... That much ram is going to continue to be unavailable due to shortages.

[-]

WeUsedToBeACountry@reddit

could be, but this is a typical pattern for apple. they start restricting stock and supplies dwindle before major releases.

with wwdc in june i bet we see at least 256gb m5 studios, if not the full 512gb

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

But they aren't operating in a vacuum of historical apple trends. You can see the same thing happening with other consumer devices like the steam deck where they just start becoming unavailable due to shortages.

What is more likely is that this is following the same trend as the rest of the market. Apple is affected by the DRAM shortages like everyone else.

They have already publicly stated that DRAM shortages are affecting their production. There's no need to speculate further.

[-]

WeUsedToBeACountry@reddit

They've also stated that they're aggressively buying up everything they can, even at inflated prices, and stockpiling it.

One of the if not the most cash rich tech company isn't going to run out of ram. The rest of us will.

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

Ok. As long as you consider that they aren't going to necessarily waste silicon on huge niche workstations when they have better applications for it.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

That means it costs more not that they can’t buy it. Apple is one of the most powerful purchasers of chips full stop. They can still get them.

[-]

anfrind@reddit

Apple may be a powerful company, but even their purchasing power is nothing compared to hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

You must not have heard of the iPhone.

[-]

FigAltruistic2086@reddit

Apple LPDDR for iPhones and Amazon DDR or HBM. They are not competitors for same RAM type.

[-]

anfrind@reddit

iPhones don't need anywhere near as much RAM as the servers in AI datacenters.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

There are a lot more iPhones than servers.

[-]

xly15@reddit

They may be a powerful purchaser but they aren't going to buying at ever inflating prices if they their end buyer fie their product just won't buy the finished product.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

Apple will happily pass the cost on to the customer.

[-]

xly15@reddit

The customer will only pay so much though before they just don't buy. You can't sell to people unwillimg to buy.

[-]

CanineAssBandit@reddit

Clearly the people were very willing to buy or they wouldn't still be selling at >$20k on ebay for the 512GB config. I'd like to think Apple will release the M5 Ultra at WWDC, and hopefully not an a huge price hike if ram prices continue to drop as they have been recently

[-]

redballooon@reddit

They could still build a few and sell them at a premium.

[-]

iamsaitam@reddit

That’s already their business model!

[-]

redballooon@reddit

Well. Apparently not.

[-]

Something-Ventured@reddit

Top end / BTO configs are the first to go before an update.

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

Niche markets are also the first to go during a global shortage. They make more money off of selling smaller configurations at higher quantities.

Think about it: If you could sell one piece of fruit for $5 or a basket for $10, why would you sell baskets if you can't even keep up with the demand of singles?

It's about margins when there's a clear bottleneck on the supply chain. There is absolutely no incentive for them right now to release the high configurations of the ultra right now.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

It will still be available, but it might be more expensive

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

That is not a fact at all. Many manufacturers have already pulled from the consumer market entirely. Nothing is forcing Apple to continue on with high amounts of unified memory. It might just get to the point where it makes no sense for them to manufacture due to how small the market would due to how absurd the costs would be.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

Which pc makers have stopped making pcs? Oh that’s right none of them. 🙄

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

Chip manufactures*

It's higher up the supply chain.

Do you really need a list? I'm not saying Apple is going to stop making consumer hardware. I'm saying that their consumer hardware doesn't have to peak at 512gb of unified memory due to DRAM shortages.

At least in the short term it doesn't make sense for them to be doing something like that in a highly volatile market where memory can swing and such wild amounts.

It's more likely they continue to focus on stuff like the neo and more pragmatic studio workstations.

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

Apple doesn’t walk into Best Buy and buy Micron DRAM sticks 😂 They ARE an enterprise customer.

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/apple-chasing-memory-supply-to-meet-high-customer-demand-ceo-tim-cook-says-shortage-will-have-a-greater-impact-on-its-q2-earnings

DRAM shortages are global.

Apple does not keep these chips in stock, and that it’s currently scrambling to find sources because of the iPhone’s strong sales in December

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

“Shortage will have an impact on earnings” doesn’t mean they cant get them. It means they’re more expensive.

[-]

ContextLengthMatters@reddit

What part of "scrambling to find sources" do you not understand?

If they can't even keep up with the demand of their mobile devices, why would they split manufacturing to more premium consumer markets that might not pan out?

Do you not understand basic economics here? They have a market that they cannot feed already. Their niche buyers are going to be the first ones to suffer.

[-]

chisleu@reddit

This is old news

[-]

Hanthunius@reddit

"Any minute now" 😂

[-]

ID-10T_Error@reddit

Didnt they already announce no 512gb

[-]

sparkleboss@reddit

Your assessment is correct. The M5 is coming. They’re not going to abandon entire market segments, especially when those segments are buying Mac Studios faster than ever before.

[-]

SpiritualWindow3855@reddit

Mac Studio obsession is a sign that the hype has completely divorced itself from reality: what model needs 256GB of ram and runs usefully fast on a Mac Studio for cybersecurity?

Presumably this is agentic work and requires processing large amounts of context in non-prefix cache friendly ways, what do people think a 256GB Mac Studio is getting them over even a 5090?

[-]

Virtual_Magazine_860@reddit

I don't understand it. VRAM on a mac studio wouldn't be fast enough to be useful. Sure it could fit those large models. But are people using them for anything useful or just for fun? Seems like it would be way too slow to be useful.

[-]

SpiritualWindow3855@reddit

I'm not exaggerating when I say it's divorced from reality: a meaningful number of these people don't even know why.

There are even people buying Mac Studios for OpenClaw because their wires are crossed and they think OpenClaw using Claude requires "a machine that can run AI".

They look that up and see that the best models require X GB of VRAM, then buy a 256GB Mac Studio to run the harness _only_ and use a non-local AI service. They don't understand that the harness is not the same as the AI.

[-]

Fragrant_Chef4326@reddit

https://one.olares.com/products/olares-one

Buy this bad boy instead. Open source hardware. cheaper with a bloody mobile 5090 gpu

[-]