Western drought is driving beef prices through the roof. This is just a prologue to the far more serious food-supply disruptions a hotter planet will bring.
Posted by simon_ritchie2000@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 49 comments
Even if we hold warming to just 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial averages by 2050, global production of staples such as wheat, corn and soybeans will still fall by 8%. North American food production will be hit especially hard, falling nearly 17%. And this is the best-case scenario under current policies. Far more likely is food-supply collapse and social upheaval.
sloppymoves@reddit
People will be eating 2% beef with 98% mashed insect filler before they ever give up their meat consumption.
I can't wait to see it.
Sarah_Cenia@reddit
These same people will still turn their nose up at meat substitutes that taste great.
mrblahblahblah@reddit
I've eaten crickets and such before overseas
not bad
probably great in a burger, except for the legs
verstohlen@reddit
Clara Peller will be spinning in her grave.
03263@reddit
Insects pretty good for you too, plenty of protein and vitamins. yum yum
filmguy36@reddit
I’ve had insects, meal worms to be specific. And ho, they are really good. Have a nutty flavor. Crickets, grasshoppers and the like are pretty bland and work as a base.
PatrolMan2129@reddit
I'm pretty sure they've been serving that at White Castle already 30 years ago.
Fun_Journalist4199@reddit
The only time I tried a plant based burger was at while castle. I did it side by side with the beef.
The difference was stark. One was meaty, moist, packed full of delicious beefy goodness. The other, with meat, was just your standard booger burger.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
Yeah, meat substitues have come a long way. Also well prepared tofu/tempeh is just something else.
J-96788-EU@reddit
Producing 1kg of boneless beef requires an average of approximately 15,000 to 15,400 liters of water.
Crafty_Original_7349@reddit
I live in beef country (Kansas). Steers spend most of their lives on range feeding on native vegetation. They are raised on rangeland, and then get rounded up (yes, by actual cowboys!) and trucked to feedlots for “finishing” on custom feed to fatten them prior to slaughter. They are typically there for a few weeks to a few months before they get trucked to the processing plant.
People think cattle are born in a feedlot and are raised there from birth on irrigated feed, which is not true (at least in my area).
As far as that irrigated feed goes, I think farmers are trying to get away from using irrigation as the groundwater continues to dry up. Corn is a very useful crop for cattle because they can eat the entire plant, not just the corn kernels. They’ll chop it up and store it as silage, and use it for feed.
I think the current trend is to use grain sorghum (milo) as a replacement for corn, because it can be grown under dryland conditions without irrigation. I think the primary problem with sorghum is that it’s potentially poisonous to cattle under certain circumstances, but I think there’s breeding research being done to modify it and reduce toxicity.
Bonus pic of the anniversary Chisholm Trail cattle drive that went through my hometown in 2017. It’s very unsettling seeing all those horns coming at you, but I think they were too tired to be ornery.
m0fr001@reddit
Native vegetation in fields that are unable to grow anything more substantial than scrub grass..
"Native vegetation" is a cycle. Not just a moment in time. And yes yes. Kansas is flat prairie. Yawn.
The plains need diverse deep rooting grasses to sustain drought and fires.
But all those real life cowboys and their farming cousins enclosed the prairie to decimate local wildlife, clear cut, and raise commodity crops that the world doesn't really need.
Cool romanticism tho. Will be interesting to see how that works for the inevitable future issues.
And yea.. The feed lot is a horror show that consumes an extreme amount of water.. With a huge burden on local water tables and infrastructures.
Same as with all the corn fields of Kansas that produce all that finishing feed.
Ffs. Its just such a dumb industry to try to protect.
Crafty_Original_7349@reddit
Why so hateful?
4_AOC_DMT@reddit
They're doing the opposite of hate?
Why are you so protective of an omnicidal industry?
atascon@reddit
Disclaimer: I am completely pro meat reduction and eradication of factory farming.
However, this figure needs to be contextualised depending on production method. Here in the UK for example, most beef production is largely reliant on rainfall for water.
Which, given recent extreme weather patterns, will be a huge limiting factor going forward.
flriverlivin@reddit
That is a global estimate and very regional dependent. 90% of that number is for feed, not the animal itself.
cAPTAINkNZ@reddit
Feeding cows is so completely weird to me, our country farms them in paddocks and they eat the grass.
hippydipster@reddit
And you can gwt that here in the US too, but its considerably more expensive. I get half a cow about every two years, and it costs me, at this point, about $1800 for about 280 lbs of meat, and some bones additionally. This is considerably cheaper than going to a specialty food store and buying the same meat in small quantities, but not everyone has a large freezer for storage ( though not sure why given how cheap they are).
ShyElf@reddit
It feels weird to me that they would have weather good enough to grow grass all year and not try to grow crops. Yeah, NZ is warm enough but too cool for most crops, so it makes sense intellectually. Even the dairy capitsl of Wisconsin here is under snow 3-4 months a year. A lot of the western cattle land is under snow 2 months a year and naturally too dry to grow much 3 months out of the year. Cattle land is mostly cattle land because you can't easily grow much else.
As they add irrigagation, a lot of the land is coming from cattle, too. People talk here as if the herds haven't been trending down for decades.
atascon@reddit
Soil (type) is often the limiting factor
PatrolMan2129@reddit
The industrialization of cattle had two big phases. After the civil war, it began in the western US (although Spanish and Mexican ranching existed long before that) and they were already feeding cows corn to make them grow faster by at least the 1880s. It gets marble the meat.
And then in the 1960s and thereafter, the rising popularity of fastfood, namely McDonalds, changed the game again and led to the rise of feedlot CAFOs.
Today's society could not raise beef fast enough just on grass fed at current demand. It would take far longer and on for more land and the meat would be less marbled to boot, ie not to the customer's preferences.
Comfortably-Numb2026@reddit
CAFO?
HigherandHigherDown@reddit
A quick google got me "concentrated animal feeding operation."
Comfortably-Numb2026@reddit
Thanks!
Sometimes I just want to read and not have to figure out ONWRA (obscure not widely recognized acronyms. )
flriverlivin@reddit
This is correct... giant feed lot operations vs free range. The real punch in the face for the US is the present administration is trying very hard to eliminate public lands... which include natural grazing lands (personally I would prefer it be native buffalo). Free range chickens and chicken eggs have gained popularity, free range beef and pork would be nice too. Yes prices for said products will be much higher due to less produced. As pointed out... the fast food business was the catalist that got this ball rolling. I have little problem with the end to fast food for multiple reasons.
PatrolMan2129@reddit
"Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) are large-scale industrial agricultural facilities that confine hundreds or thousands of livestock—cows, pigs, or chickens—in high-density settings for at least 45 days a year. They are designed to maximize production efficiency and minimize costs, creating lower-priced meat and dairy, but face intense scrutiny for environmental, health, and ethical issues."
flriverlivin@reddit
When there is a country of 340M the situation is a bit different. Unfortunately, with that comes 429M pounds of beef thrown away each year. Roughly 20-25% of all beef produced in US is thrown away each year. A reduction in availability will hopefully tighten that, though initially, the number may spike sine people simply won't pay the prices and it goes bad on the shelves. Finding the 'sweet spot' will take tine.
WileyCoyote7@reddit
Going hungry - it’s the new Ozempic. I like the positive spin though on how this leads to, for now, lower herd sizes of cattle and therefore less water usage and methane being farted into the atmosphere.
MyOtherACCBanned@reddit
Come on collapse already I'm ready for this I don't want to work anymore
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
We will still have to go to work, unfortunately.
Kasym-Khan@reddit
This you?
Didn't you say in your other comment that capitalism is awesome? Work for once, you lazy communist.
Isaiah_The_Bun@reddit
Bad news, collapse is a process not a single event and its already underway.
PowerandSignal@reddit
Something tells me we'll all be working much harder to fill our bellies after the shit really hits the fan.
Isaiah_The_Bun@reddit
havent you noticed that trend happening already? but ya, rich priveledged countries take longer to feel it. Good luck out there
Steak_Fry@reddit
The American way of life is non-negotiable.
Willravel@reddit
Soy protein isolate, pea protein isolate, brown rice protein isolate, seitan, spirulina, textured vegetable protein, tempeh, high protein tofu, lentils, peanut butter powder… there are options when it comes to protein sources that involves far less resources and effort than meat and seafood.
The best way to go about this, I think, is simply marketing these things as they are instead of trying to say, “Replace meat,” which tends to put a surprisingly large group of people into a state of identity-based fight or flight. My vegan protein powder tastes fine compared to whey protein, it’s an easy substitution. I can make a pretty good larb or sloppy joe with TVP. If you steam the tempeh first, that bitter flavor some people dislike goes away and you can prepare it however you like (I think it’s great in a sandwich or mixed in with noodles). Tofu has nearly endless applications.
Eventually the cows will all die given how bad we are about putting in the effort to prevent diseases, so we’re now in the window of deciding if we just enjoy plant-based stuff or are like Dave Bautista at the start of Blade Runner 2049 growing artificial grubs for protein.
sloppymoves@reddit
Theyll be eating bugs because marketing will tell them its basically the same.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
I dont think so. Eating bugs also activates identity-based fight or flight in meat eaters.
Comfortably-Numb2026@reddit
TVP?
idreamofkitty@reddit
The Colorado River can no longer support a water-intensive livestock industry. To get through 2026, in my opnion, the region must now prioritize crops for human consumption over animal feed.
The American food system is quietly edging towards catastrophe.
https://www.collapse2050.com/collapse-of-us-agriculture/
trickortreat89@reddit
Honestly it’s not that big of a catastrophe to be “forced” to produce food for humans instead of cows… it’s just a welcomed change and about time. It will also do a lot of positives for the environment
TernarySquare0123@reddit
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09085-w
A longitudinal study. So it's observational data with no modeling of non-linearities. Which makes 8%/17% extremely optimistic imo.
Front_River_2367@reddit
Yet, here in the US, our government will continue to subsidize the fuck 9ut of beef production. Our bread in the "bread and circuses" is just hamburger.
Crafty_Original_7349@reddit
I quit buying beef when Covid first jacked up the price. $10/lb 73% lean ground beef was just too ridiculous. Even now a chuck roast is just as expensive as a ribeye used to be and I am not about to pay that much for it.
I’m mostly vegetarian because it’s just so expensive.
PowerandSignal@reddit
Welcome!
Nothing wrong with that. Whatever gets you there!
After_Resource5224@reddit
It was good while it lasted, boys.
Kahnza@reddit
I think I've had beef twice in the last year. A burger last summer, and a pack of roast beef slices for sandwiches.
annehboo@reddit
Time to stop eating meat and supporting the animal abuse.
flriverlivin@reddit
'We must reduce beef herd to lessen methane impact.' Later 'OMG the price of beef is so high!'
What did people think would happen? Whether it is done by climate or purposeful, the result of high prices will occur.