President Xi meets Taiwan Opposition Leader for first time in a decade
Posted by ObjectiveObserver420@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 136 comments
Posted by ObjectiveObserver420@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 136 comments
leviathan235@reddit
Taiwan should realize quickly that its best interest is peaceful reunification in the long-term. They should also know that their biggest threat is the US, and not China. Think about it like this: if China were weak, the US would vassalize Taiwan and strip it of all its technology and talent and leverage, like through tech transfers (already ongoing through the CHIPS Act, but without China, it would be much more aggressive, since Taiwan would have no choice). They would probably put a military base on Taiwan, and there would be no more Taiwan sovereignty. If the US were weak, China would over time, peacefully reunify with Taiwan and it would become another province. I doubt the state would like to meddle in what's already working, so there shouldn't be much change in material conditions (quality of life, education, career, etc.), but possibly improvements that greater integration brings, like economic opportunities. Taiwan sovereignty would also end, but Taiwan would share in the benefits of Chinese sovereignty, since Taiwan would be part of China - Taiwan would benefit from trade deals that China can sign, for example, with the GCC countries to secure hydrocarbon supplies. China has overwhelming leverage when it comes to securing supplies for important minerals and metals to fuel its industrial production, and Taiwan would enjoy those as well.
China doesn't want to take Taiwan by force and has no timeline to do so; even the US intelligence agencies acknowledged this recently. https://news.usni.org/2026/03/19/china-not-committed-to-2027-taiwan-invasion-u-s-intel-report-says
Why? Because China considers Taiwan as a province and the Taiwanese people as fellow Chinese people. You don't bomb, starve, and slaughter your own people.
captaincw_4010@reddit
Let’s be real the PRC doesn’t want Taiwan because it cares about them, it’s because it threatens the social contract the PRC has with the Chinese people. That the Chinese people trade democracy and human rights for economic prosperity.
Taiwan is such an existential threat to the PRC because it’s a constant reminder (and embarrassment to the CCP) that it doesn’t have to be that way. That the Chinese people can have all 3.
leviathan235@reddit
Lol yes, because the west is such a bastion of economic success and political stability. Nobody believes these western lies anymore. Please wax poetic to everybody in the global south about liberal democracy as the entire liberal democratic world order crumbles into the dustbin of history.
It turns out economic development, material conditions, and political stability matter infinitely more than some vague pearl clutching about democracy and make-pretend human rights.
I can guarantee you China doesn’t fear Taiwan in the slightest.
Kevo4twenty@reddit
No they fear the USA, and the west is the greatest place in the world, capitalism has lifted more out of poverty and helped the world in general more than any other. Fuck china
captaincw_4010@reddit
After what the PRC did to Hong Kong, Taiwan knows what is waiting and will never peacefully join them.
Like what the PRC is actively trying to do? PRC also actually do actively steal the world’s technology. US allies like Korea and Japan without China’s so called “protection” haven’t fallen into ruin like you claim would happen and have strong economies full of talent.
Hong Kong
If they wanted to join the PRC with all the economic “benefits” they’d elect the KMT over and over but clearly the Taiwanese are perfectly happy apart, doesn’t the will of the people matter? clearly they value sovereignty above all
Is this a joke?
The Chinese civil war, cultural revolution, the Great Leap Forward, Tiananmen Square Massacre, threatening to cut off Hong Kong’s water if they didn’t join the PRC, the many Taiwan Strait Crisis(s) when they did try to force Taiwan into the PRC, it’s low ranking in human rights. The PRC is more than happy to do everything you listed, the only thing stopping them is the US Navy in the area
sovietarmyfan@reddit
The Taiwanese people still like to preserve their independence from the mainland. This was clear in the last presidential election, this will again be clear in the 2028 presidential election.
It doesn't matter if they are majority Han Chinese. You don't see the US and Canada unite just because both countries speak English or both populations have similar ethnic backgrounds.
The fact that the leader of the Kuomintang has traveled to China may even intensify people's votes for anyone else than her.
Alxx2@reddit
Taiwan is part of the first island chain. Guess who that chain is for? Do social media people or westerners not realize Taiwan isn’t some peaceful existence?
They are part of a choke point that weakens China marine defense. We literally see how dangerous a choke point is even in this Iran war.
China would need to break that chain for its own safety and a China invasion of Taiwan is the most justifiable internationally as they are remanent of an unfinished civil war. Historically Taiwan has housed a rebel regime to China in the past.
Taiwan has no official defense pact with the USA. USA can choose or not to defend Taiwan. If China military power continues to rise. USA will definitely back off. Unless the PRC collapses, a China takeover is inevitable. Peacefully or kicking and screaming. Possibly before 2049.
pimmen89@reddit
It would be an immense operation, more complicated than the D-Day landings. I think a PLA operation like that is less than inevitable, especially when Beijing has seen how hard it really is for a great power to succeed at an invasion in this day and age.
Heavy_Initiative_137@reddit
Yes, without outside pressure just in terms of domestic sentiment Taiwan's population is unlikely to ever vote for unification with mainland China.
But there is outside pressure. I don't think Beijing will give them a real choice in the matter when it comes to it. Obviously nothing is going to happen in the next few years, but Taiwan won't remain de-facto sovereign beyond the 2030s. There will have to be some two-systems type accomodation where Taiwan trades sovereignty for autonomy for a while.
pimmen89@reddit
A ground invasion of Taiwan would be a very taxing operation, more logistically complicates than the D-Day landings. I don’t think the CCP really wants to do that.
Rich_Housing971@reddit
It's disingenuous of you to claim this because that's not what the actual reason is. The actual reason is through history. Japan had to return Taiwan (called Formosa back then) to "China", but at the time "China" was comprised of various competing governments. It wasn't returning it to any specific government.
The Chinese Civil War never ended with any treaties. De jure, the land on both the mainland and Taiwan still belong to the same government, which is claimed by both sides as being "the government".
Until both sides sign a treaty that says "One side relinquishes control of the island and the other side relinquishes control of the mainland", the matter isn't settled.
BrocoLee@reddit
Western propaganda makes it seem like the relationship between Taiwan and China is binary: either they become a colony or they remain free. Truth is, like always, much more complex.
Taiwan is ethnically 97% chinese han, there's a third of the population that still identifies chinese, they speak chinese and they have huge economic ties with mainland China. Also, with China becoming the biggest global superpower, ot makes sense for them to want to have the best relationship.
maxloo2@reddit
agree that things are more complex than binary, but i must disagree with saying that being han chinese has anything to do with being PRC chinese. there they played a game in hijacking the identity of being a chinese. thats a whole another topic but to explain it briefly i wouldnt connect the ethnicity with the nationality.
Luis_r9945@reddit
It is fairly binary Either Taiwan is an Independent Country with its own laws, government, and abilty to make its own economic decisions....or its a territory controlled by the PRC.
HopefulSurveys@reddit
You are forgetting the last option. Given enough firepower and nations Taiwan can go back to be Best China!
Ruby2312@reddit
You sure you want to give China a casus belli? War is an extremely unpopular proposition in China rn, do u want them to switch that?
SlavaCocaini@reddit
It's a territory controlled by the PRC by all international law, what did you think the C in RoC stood for?
Luis_r9945@reddit
There is no international law that states that. Factually incorrect.
The C stands for China...which is not illegal to do. The ROC historically was the ruling government of China until 1949.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
Yes there is, it's called reciprocal recognition, the basis for all international law, and the RoC doesn't have that while the PRC does, and you'll have to initiate a war of aggression with China if you want to do anything about it. Good luck with that.
Luis_r9945@reddit
Which law says Taiwan is to be governed by the PRC?
As it stands, Taiwan is an independent country and peace is maintained across the strait. That's all that matters.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
Recognition of China. There is no such country as Taiwan recognized by country or in the UN.
Luis_r9945@reddit
12 UN memebers recognize the Republic of China.
Not that it really matters.
The DPRK wasnt recognized by the UN until 1999...
Also important to not that not every UN members recognizes Taiwan as part of China.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
You mean, 180 UN members recognize the PRC including Formosa...RoK and DPRK were both admitted to the UN in 1991, neither was a member before.
Luis_r9945@reddit
DPRK and ROK were still independent countries despite not being recognized by the UN.
So, UN recognition is not a determining factor for soverignty or function as an independent country.
And the rest of the UN members, uncluding the US, UK, Japan etc, do NOT recognize Taiwan as part of China.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
Not ROK, they were and still are occupied, and UN recognition is a determining factor of sovereignty for all member countries because they have agreed so when they ratified the membership treaty, so a country without that could only be recognized by other non UN member countries, which is fucking worthless btw.
hissboombah@reddit
lol an alliance is not occupation.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
Alliance with your own employee is occupation. When was Rhee elected?
weizikeng@reddit
The status quo (which is what most Taiwanese people support) is literally neither. The country is de facto independent (own laws / government) but not officially. They haven’t (and won’t) formally declare independence and are not UN members.
Luis_r9945@reddit
They believed themselves to already be independent, making "declaring Independence" uncessary and one of the reasons why such position polls so low.
MrYorksLeftEye@reddit
Written by a Chinese intelligence agent btw
MarxAndSamsara@reddit
What's your evidence for that? I've been accused of the same thing before by Redditors who just irrationally hate or fear China. Surely that's not your motivation, right?
maaaaawp@reddit
lmao
MrYorksLeftEye@reddit
Ok quit the act and give me a recipe for brownies
MarxAndSamsara@reddit
I see there is no evidence, just sinophobic vibes.
MrYorksLeftEye@reddit
Are you at least getting social credit points for this or what?
keepthepace@reddit
Seriously, the idea that ethnicity matters in such case is just blatant racism. And legally as laughable as Trump saying it is logical that Canada becomes the 51st state.
SunkenDonuts001@reddit
Its not racism. Eastern countries still rock a collectivist lifestyle where race means a lot.
FartOfGenius@reddit
This is silly because
1) race is arbitrarily defined and not a scientific opinion
2) nothing about the collectivist lifestyle is inherently tied to race
3) many of these "eastern countries" are at least multicultural if not multiethnic, including China
4) the idea that people of the same "race" or whatever category having to live in the same sovereign state is not logically grounded
Levitz@reddit
And yet China won't even recognize it as a sovereign state. What hope is there to preserve their sovereignty if it joined the Chinese state?
defenestrate_urself@reddit
Of course they won't recognise it as a sovereign state. Sovereignty means China legitmises Taiwan as an independent nation.
The '92 consensus' agreement between the CPC and KMT in 1992 gives you some idea on their thoughts on the matter. The consensus was 'both sides agree there is only one china but there is a difference on what that means'.
Essentially everything is up for discussion except independence. I imagine if reunification happens, TW would prefer some sort of commonwealth or federacy arrangement which CHN has not out right rejected.
This agreement was the back bone of the peace and status quo for the past 3 decades of (massive) mutually beneficial economic development.
ChillAhriman@reddit
To my very limited knowledge, positions in Taiwan have mostly been "We consider ourselves part of China, but we don't want to be ruled by the CCP", with the alternative "We're our own nation, actually" only becoming a relevant enough trend in the last decade.
My guess is that some of the Taiwanese elites may be seeing the warning in the wall and realizing that the day when the US will be unable to stop a mainland takeover of the island may come sooner than previously expected, and they may want to negotiate a reunification process where they, as individuals, don't lose too much.
Personally, given all the trends that we can see (continued rise of the Chinese economy, technology and military capabilities, last tantrums of a falling US empire, Europe retreating into their own regional sphere, Japan and SK in heavy difficulties to form a larger coalition that would be able to contain China without NATO, China having a demographic pyramid that will give them even a larger edge during the following ~30 years in comparison with European/North American/JP+SK+TW countries), I think the takeover is unavoidable and we'll see it take place in the following decades, so if that's the way out they're looking for, I cannot blame them. I only hope they also have the working class Taiwanese in their minds.
imunfair@reddit
It would be ironic if Xi manages to bring Taiwan under China's umbrella again with a Hong Kong/Macau type Special Administrative Region arrangement without firing a shot while Trump runs around unsuccessfully shooting up the world.
agentchuck@reddit
I think that will be exactly how it will play out. The real irony in my mind is that we're all under so much propaganda and used to US interventions that we actually think China would invade Taiwan militarily.
Everyone seems to forget that Taiwan and China were the same country until very recently. To them it's not invading a foreign country. They'd be killing their countrymen.
If Hawaii or Rhode Island had declared independence, would it make sense for the US to go in and bomb them until they comply? Kill a bunch of Americans so they can force them to be Americans again?
Look at the US history of its interventions, or Russia trying to take Ukraine. Militaries are great at killing people, but absolutely counterproductive at winning the hearts and minds of captured populations.
ChillAhriman@reddit
Do note that China's military spends significant efforts into preparing for a possible invasion of the island. They would most definitely prefer to take it without firing shots, and perhaps they'd be willing to sacrifice political capital or offer some degree of autonomy to achieve it, but I think the sensible discussion here is "how likely is it that they end up choosing one route or the other", not "would they be willing to attack or not".
BendicantMias@reddit
China spends half of what the US does on its military. And I don't mean in absolute terms, I mean as a portion of their GDP. Even Europe spends more of its GDP on its army than China. Not exactly a very militaristic allocation...
fnezio@reddit
Do you live under the impression they would not?
imunfair@reddit
Counterpoint is Ukraine, where that exact thing is happening. USSR split, 30 years later Russia wants them back. The two elements holding China back were the destruction of the fabs, and prior to drone warfare the cost of invading. It would have been more like the invasion of Normandy than Russia invading Ukraine.
With the current paradigm of drone supremacy I don't think that's really true any longer - China could probably take out Taiwan's coastal defenses and waltz in relatively unharmed - that may be another element causing Taiwan to reconsider negotiations. I'm happy to see them work it out peacefully though, Ukraine is an unnecessary travesty with a lot of people who don't want to fight being forced to die for the state.
GianfrancoZoey@reddit
This will happen anyway, but in the event of any kind of reunification between Taiwan and The PRC the Americans have said they'll bomb TSMC so there's that
imunfair@reddit
From what I understand those facilities are rigged so they can be demolished if China takes Taiwan by force, and the EU company that makes the equipment won't sell to China
Robot9004@reddit
He probably means they'll start building their own.
A lot of people here joke about China being xx years behind in development but you dont see many saying they'll never catch up. It is in inevitability at this point.
shitpostsuperpac@reddit
ASML is the bottleneck. If China can start producing lithography equipment that meets or exceeds ASML then they can actually start cooking.
Being able to engineer and build the actual equipment isn’t something anyone else has been able to do, let alone doing so at an industrial scale (or what qualifies for industrial scale when we’re talking about machines that are basically science fiction).
Not that I think China can’t do it. I just wonder to what level the CCP’s central planning is holding them back for that type of critical industry. Is there the same competitive meritocracy that we see in electric vehicle manufacturing? Or when it comes to technology that touches national security is the environment different, more cronyism, more political infighting, more sabotage of competitors?
That changes the timeline considerably.
Georgex2inthejungle@reddit
You mean this one?
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/
shitpostsuperpac@reddit
The engineering gap between this and producing multiple machines at an industrial scale is massive. It’s progress for sure.
paradoxxxicall@reddit
ASML is absolutely the bottleneck, but I’m reluctant to point to societal reason for their failure to reproduce the technology. After all, we’ve also failed to do so.
pendelhaven@reddit
The machines ASML makes is arguably the amalgamation of decades of pinnacle research and top tier manufacturing across multiple disciplines. China is about 6 years into this, they still have a very long way to go.
BendicantMias@reddit
There are other ways to make semiconductors, EUV isn't everything. It just happens to be the current dominant method that won out for now. But it's reaching its limits too. As regards China, here's a term you might not have heard of that'll give you something to look up - Steady State Microbunching (SSMB). And that's just one of many alternatives. ASML wasn't always as central to chips as it is now, and won't necessarily be in the future.
BendicantMias@reddit
There are other ways to make semiconductors, EUV isn't everything. It just happens to be the current dominant method that won out for now. But it's reaching its limits too. As regards China, here's a term you might not have heard of that'll give you something to look up - Steady State Microbunching (SSMB). And that's just one of many alternatives. ASML wasn't always as central to chips as it is now, and won't necessarily be in the future.
protonpack@reddit
For something so critical to their national interests, I would be more inclined to believe China is benefiting from their current system rather than hurting. Comparing it to something like the Manhattan Project, I don't think that would have gone as well as it did if the President had to rely on convincing private corporations to do the R&D instead. I'm sure there are lots of differences I'm not aware of too.
People can correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't the period in the West where governments were most successful at getting these sorts of major projects accomplished the same period when those governments had influence more akin to China's central planning than the neoliberalism we've seen since the 80s?
shitpostsuperpac@reddit
I don’t think central planning is the prohibitive part. I agree with you that there are things that should be centrally planned.
I think it comes down to how does that central planning take place. Is it a meritocracy or are there political or personal considerations being taken into account?
The extreme examples are Nazi Germany rejecting “Jewish Physics”. Or it could be something akin to a politically connected buffoon being placed in charge and even kept in charge after demonstrating ineptitude (Göring).
I think China does it but the timeline depends on what the CCP’s internal politics are like. Not to mention all the curveballs that can happen - if Xi dies unexpectedly, what happens then? Etc.
leviathan235@reddit
The CCP's mixed system has precisely been what has allowed China to innovate so rapidly in critical areas because the state provides the cheap funding, sets up guardrails, and channels the talent. From then on, private innovation and competition takes over, and you get spectacular speed of innovation. China has done this repeatedly in multiple critical industries like EVs, solar panels, battery technology, industrial automation, AI, etc.
China just announced a key breakthrough in lithography materials last year. It's not just a matter of time, but coming much faster than western analysts had predicted.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3330492/tech-war-chinese-researchers-claim-breakthrough-advanced-lithography-materials
The ultimate irony is that one of the key selling points of western-style liberal capitalism is that it allocates capital well (based on free market principles of supply and demand). However, not only is this false, western capitalism also fails at talent allocation. The Chinese mixed system channels talent and capital towards the most productive and important industries, whereas liberal capitalism incentivizes people and capital to flow into financial and technology speculation. It's pretty obvious who wins in the long-term looking at this fundamental trend alone. Has there been bad allocations in the Chinese system since Deng Xiaoping? Of course - housing for one. But that's nowhere near as catastrophic as how badly US capital has been wasted on real estate, financial, and technology speculation.
Bartimeo666@reddit
This could be more of a problem of USA with their "exorbitant privilege" of having the world currency making them addicted to "cheap money" (cheap loans) and making their exports less competitive than a ditcothomy betwen central planing vs free market.
leviathan235@reddit
That's certainly a contributor and hamstrings the existence an industrial base. But even without it, the Anglo system of neoliberal capitalism is entirely ill-suited to capital intensive industries and spending on infrastructure. Just look at Britain post-WWII and post-Thatcher's massive waves of privatization and neoliberalism - even without the benefit of the GBP being the world's reserve currency, the Brits have managed to de-industrialize and sell out their entire country and economy to global capital. I've heard Britain described as "a housing market with a country attached." I would go further - Britain is a playground and parking lot for global capital with a country attached. Everything is up for sale to investors, including critical infrastructure.
inamag1343@reddit
Also breaks the "First Island Chain". It doesn't help that in the south, Philippines, Duterte's daughter is slated to win the presidency in 2028 if she survives impeachment.
Leownnn@reddit
What does that mean in terms of the politics of the region, who is she more aligned with, China or the US?
inamag1343@reddit
She and her followers are pro-China. This might also affect Taiwan because Philippines may be less inclined to be involved if something happens.
BendicantMias@reddit
The Philippines won't involve themselves regardless. It knows it's outmatched. The only question is whether it'll allow the US to use bases there for operations against China. And if Taiwan falls, peacefully or otherwise, then I fully expect the Philippines will agree to close those bases soon after - regardless of who the leader is. It doesn't want war.
AVonGauss@reddit
As much as it ever was, the “island chain” philosophy hasn't been relevant since the 1970s…
Alxx2@reddit
How is not relevant when a set of military bases cuts off your access to the pacific if war actually happens. Taiwan still exists which is part of the first island chain. Philosophy seems very much alive just because the US don’t talk it about because it shows US hostility.
A gun to someone head is still a gun to someone’s head you don’t actually need to say anything for it to be a threat. Cuban missile crisis was ONE thing but now multiply that by around 300 when it comes to China.
AVonGauss@reddit
Let me guess, you believe controlling the Malacca Strait would be some massive strategic own over China rather than an inconvenience?
Alxx2@reddit
Malacca strait has never crossed my mind until you mentioned it.
80% oil comes from that straight currently. Isn’t that why the US hold so much interest in it because China is involved.
Isn’t China already looking for alternatives, because controlling the straight would be unrealistic. There is no actual justification unless US start directly controlling the strait. China invested heavily on alternative and new pipelines because of our energy weakness.
Let’s just say some conflict does occur and the malacca straight gets closed off. If Chinese Navy can’t even leave the South China Sea the question don’t even matter.
Taiwan is US manufactured thorn on the side of China. If the US did not get involved would Taiwan separate government exist once the PRC won?
There is no alternative to China sea access. Can we build new ports to access ocean areas that don’t exist? What is your solution? China should just let itself be defensively vulnerable and kept on a chain like the US intended. No country/ person will agree to this if they have the power to control their own fate.
If I reverse the situation and the PRC ended up in the position of Taiwan there probably be no mercy from the USA so sorry if I have absolutely zero sentiments to Taiwan and if war the only option. So be it. I just need to look at Cuba as an example.
AVonGauss@reddit
I'm much more fascinated that you seem to believe the Chinese Navy can't leave the South China Sea without access to the Malacca Strait?
Alxx2@reddit
Can’t leave the South China Sea because of the island chain. Or you to continue to forgot it existed? I thought the whole point was that the USA can easily close off China in an event of war with their military bases littered around it.
AVonGauss@reddit
The "island chain" philosophy was never about "containment".
Pokmonth@reddit
Almost certainly the US has plans in place to bomb TSMC, should Taiwan fall under Chinese rule
toronto-bull@reddit
Makes me wonder what level of autonomy the provinces in China can have. The fact that China still sees Taiwan as part of China itself suggests that China has to accept different levels of autonomy for its different provinces or something.
Ok_Art6263@reddit
Well, there is Hong Kong which was the most democratic part of China until 2018.
woundsofwind@reddit
China already accepts this. If you look deeper into provincial and territorial politics, nearly every province, autonomous regions and special zones are administered differently, taking the local population and industries into account.
bend1310@reddit
The Hong Kong stuff of the last 5 years makes any kind of special deal or autonomy doubtful long term.
TemporaryInk@reddit
Last I checked, Hong Kong still has its own currency, its own fiscal policy, its own legal system, its own borders, its own passport, a different writing system, a different lingua franca, a different education system, unrestricted internet, different trade policies, an economy which is wired very differently, a different medical system and a different WTO membership. And oh, it competes under a different flag in sporting events and drives on a different side of the road.
komokasi@reddit
You checked too long ago then.
The legal system to an extent is merging with mainland by force, they are already allowed to extradite HKers without HK legal system blocking or protecting the HKers
Also mainland runs terror campaigns against any anti Mainland politicains. I think 4 years ago thugs beat up a candidate with hammers, i haven't kept up recently though
These and other overstepping by mainland is what caused the last huge riots
As for writing system this isnt really true... They use traditional chinese a lot and Cantonese, but that is all moving to simplified and mandarin. There are many HKers that are really sad about the shift, but these are also both used in mainland, but also not asuch due to china decree
TemporaryInk@reddit
So, having an extradition treaty with any country means you don’t have autonomy? Well I guess by your definition then, either no country is autonomous or all countries are autonomous by virtue of extradition treaties not being a factor defining autonomy, as every country on earth has extradition treaties in some way, shape or form with at least one other country.
Last I checked (this afternoon) the Chinese script every single road sign and public sign in Hong Kong is in TC. Every single Chinese book in school is TC. The default script for Hong Kong government websites when you’re accessing them from Hong Kong is TC. Heck, I was at a 康樂及文化事務署 event today and everything I heard was Canto I read was TC. Either I’m blind and deaf or you’re trying to gaslight me.
komokasi@reddit
Extradition law was forced through.
I did not say TC is gone. I said HK is moving away from it just like how Mandarin is being spoken more and more. Most kids in HK are mandarin fluent now and read SC and TC. Not sure if you understood what i was saying or if im also a bad writer...
TemporaryInk@reddit
Mandarin is being tacked on as a language in the education system. It is not replacing Cantonese.
Hong Kong is part of China. Fact. The Hong Kong economy is reliant on China. Hong Kong gets its food, water and electricity from China. It would be absurd for people in Hong Kong to not have at least a conversational grasp of Mandarin. Do you really expect the Hong Kong government to go “we would like to have a well educated populace who have all the skills they need to succeed in life, except proficiency in Mandarin Chinese”?
You’re talking about fluency in Mandarin, in addition to Cantonese as if it’s a bad thing…
komokasi@reddit
If you say so on SC, im getting my source on that from family and friends
I am not saying it's bad at all. Nothing i wrote indicated that its bad. Im just aware of older HKers complaining or worrying about Cantonese dying because they are teaching mandarin more and more in the schools there, but old people also like to exaggerate so idk.
Overall my point is that HK is not as separate as you were saying. Especially where it counts, the legal and political areas
Im not interested in arguing over TC v SC or Cato v Mando adoption when its such a small thing in terms of separation, especially since hk and mainland need to communicate for business. We can talk about the legal and political if you want, but thats pretty clear cut and most likely why those points are being ignored
TemporaryInk@reddit
In terms of legal matters pertaining to the sovereignty, absolutely, that’s where the legal system gets blurry. In terms of any other area of law, Hong Kong still maintains a completely different legal system… one which is based on common law, and one where foreign judges are part of the judiciary. There’s a good reason why the biggest law firms in Hong Kong are British and American law firms, while Chinese law firms have made little inroads.
On political matters which actually matter to people in Hong Kong—right now, the cost of fuel, housing policy, fiscal policy, economic policies, environmental policy, trade policy etc.—Hong Kong’s politics are highly separated from China’s. Again, China only comes into the picture on matters which pertain to its sovereignty.
Eclipsed830@reddit
You live in a bubble.
Clean-Ad-6642@reddit
People just be saying shit
SlavaCocaini@reddit
The Ukraine stuff of the last 5 years makes all kinds of special deals doubtless in the long term.
Micro_Pinny_360@reddit
Happy cake day!
Heavy_Initiative_137@reddit
I'm convinced that it will go the way of peaceful unification with some sort of autonomy for a while.
But not in the 2020s. It has nothing to do with Trump or US policy at all.
weizikeng@reddit
That likely won’t happen, very few people in Taiwan support this, especially after what happened to Hong Kong in 2019. In fact, the meeting between Ma (KMT president at the time) and Xi almost a decade ago was one of the reasons the DPP got into power in the first place.
PhaseExtra1132@reddit
They saw how much we “defended” the Arabs gulf monarchies. Same shit when it comes to Taiwan.
keepthepace@reddit
More importantly that would give China a world leadership in diplomacy as, clearly, the US is not credible there anymore. The aura of "we refrained from invading that territory and settled our different within the framework of international law" would give them a place in global affairs that US never actually really had.
Weenaru@reddit
From my understanding (from skimming through wikipedia articles), the whole Taiwan situation is roughly something like this:
So with that understanding, I'd say that Taiwan actually *should* be part of China, just that the civil war never actually ended and that they're still fighting for control over the country. One side wants the civil war to end though, but just saying that on their own isn't really how civil wars end.
woundsofwind@reddit
I would like to add that KMT was recognized as the representative of all of China and held the UN seat until the 70s when they went and committed genocide and then the world was like "that's kinda not cool, we're gonna swap you out with the CCP now"
As you can see this sends mixed signals when the US and other western countries have been flopping back and forth based on their own political agenda.
hSolitude@reddit
It was because of Nixon's foreign policy. The rest of the world followed
Bullet_Jesus@reddit
Eh, this skips over a lot. Yuan Shikai effectivly coups the Qing Emperor when he defects with the army to the Republican side and becomes the first formal president. Where things went wrong is when Yuan Shikai proclaimed himself the Hongxian Emperor, and republicanism rose up against him again, this effectively destroyed the central control of Beijing and plunged China into warlordism.
The RoC did claim the island and the allies in the Cairo Declaration did call for the island to be returned to them. It's all a bit moot because the PRC claims to be the legal successor to the RoC anyway so it would inherit any claim.
Ghostblood_Morph@reddit
Hello I am Taiwanese. Definitely don't consider ourselves part of China, and the idea that "we're our own nation" sentiment has become a "trend in the last decade" is completely false.
WalterWoodiaz@reddit
This subreddit is full of PRC shills that don’t realize that even most KMT supporters don’t support reunification, only more friendly ties to the PRC.
runsongas@reddit
that assumes they will have a choice on reunification
it looks more and more like it will be either they get to be hong kong 2.0 or xinjiang/tibet 2.0
Lyx97@reddit
tons of Chinese shills in reddit in general recently. it's like they forget all the shot china does in hate of what US is doing
ChillAhriman@reddit
Is this poll false?
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202512.png
The data is from a Taiwanese university, and used in studies published by US universities. It's also coherent with the idea that Taiwanese people moving from identifying as Chinese to identifying as Taiwanese is a modern trend.
Luis_r9945@reddit
Taiwan has always maintained that is an independent country called the Republic of China.
Whether it considers itself China or the people identify as Chinese, thats what has changed over the years.
MelodiusRA@reddit
The fact he doesn’t know that tells you all you need to know about the quality of the rest of his analysis.
awqsed10@reddit
The guy even mentioned care the working class in Taiwan after the unification show how Europe has become a useful idiot for Russia and China. They just hate everything backed by the American.
Ruby2312@reddit
Last time i check, old Taiwanese are the same as old Chinese. Dont trust the govs, at all. Who rule, liberal or autocrat dont mean shit, same turds different package. The only thing matter is that is will business be good and will there be war?
SlavaCocaini@reddit
Yes, and their constitutional borders include Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, Korea, Vietnam, and their 9 dash line in the SCS goes up to 11.
Luis_r9945@reddit
I dont think the ROC Constitution specifies their borders. Not to mentioned that it recognized Mongolia as a country in the early 2000s....so it would be a little akward if true.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
It specifies that they are China, and they go by the old maps before the communists gave up significant claims on territory.
Luis_r9945@reddit
Not in the ROC Constitution. Since reform ms of the 90s, they specify control over the "Free Area" which is defined as Taiwan, kinmen, and other small islands under its control.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
The RoC constitution doesn't say they are China? I'm starting to think you don't know what you're talking about. "reforms" don't mean anything, was there an amendment changing their name? No? Then nothing has changed.
Luis_r9945@reddit
Why would they make Ammendments to change their name?
The name of a country doesnt determine their soverignty or status as an independent country.
The ROC Constitution makes no explicit claims over Mainland China...no.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
To give up Chinese territorial claims...and international recognition, which they are fresh out of, determines their sovereignty. The RoC constitution claims that they are China, which means they still hold claims on the old Chinese territory.
Luis_r9945@reddit
The ROC Constitution makes no such claim. Thats just a fact
The rest of your response makes no sense.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
It claims they are China, along with the historic claims.
Luis_r9945@reddit
Not in the ROC Constitution.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
Bro you just said it yourself
Luis_r9945@reddit
When?
SlavaCocaini@reddit
When you said ROC. That's what that means.
Luis_r9945@reddit
Thats the name of the country since it was founded in 1912...in China. That doesnt necessarily mean Taiwan believes itself to be China lmao
Also the "China" in the Republican of China uses a unique Chinese Character which more accurately translate to "Chinese people"....not "China" itself.
SlavaCocaini@reddit
So on 1912 they were only referring to the ethnicity, despite all evidence to the contrary? Insane that you would even attempt the argument
DoubleGauss@reddit
As someone who has talked to some Taiwanese people, they very much consider themselves separate from China and would take offense to being called Chinese. It was a work program so it was all young college-aged people. I'm sure opinions vary, but from my limited interactions that was the vibe.
mywifehasapeen@reddit
That's odd. I've worked with them plenty (I won't explain the context), and the ones I met absolutely consider themselves to be Chinese. New people who hadn't worked with them before and didn't know better would get chuckled at by them when saying "Chinese" when referring to the CCP, as they consider themselves to be Chinese. Not CCP, sovereign, but still Chinese.
DoubleGauss@reddit
I meant that they don't consider Taiwan as part of China. They would consider themselves ethnically Chinese, but they a would get quite mad if you said Taiwan was part of China. They didn't identify their nationality are Chinese, not their ethnicity.
Dogulol@reddit
i dont think a takeover will happen unless the benefits outweigh the negatives for the chinese. And thats no where close. Chinese economy is heavily export dependent especially on the western economy. Even if it diversifies alot, the benefit of taking over taiwan is dubious. Most of the important infastructure will be gone in the process, the negatives are endless. Another important thing to consider is china is not america or russia, xi is not trump or putin. Ego based rash decision making is seldom involved in the chinese political sphere, they are way more pragmatic then most realize. They will not go into taiwan without thinking it through like america did w iran, and they will not go into taiwan without a genuine plan based on accurate information like russia did w ukraine. The only scenarios the taiwan invasion happens is 1) china becomes the true dominant power, not multipolar, unipolar with china as the empire and sees a clear benefit (this is half a decade away MINIMUM) 2) xi is replaced by someone way less pragmatic and more ideological and reforms the system to his will.
ToranjaNuclear@reddit
Taiwan being independent has never made any sense anyway. It would be like Trump fleeing to Hawaii and declaring their independence from the US, or Bolsonaro doing the same to one of Brazil's south states. It only makes sense in western narratives where China is the bad guy.
OathofBling@reddit
If anything, the Russian and American imperial failures make an attack less likely. Neither have gone well at all. Two extremely clear demonstrations that size, tech, and an army of online fanboys saying “they’re basically one people bro, Kiev falls in two days” aren’t actually enough to crush even medium-small countries.
China would have to launch the world’s largest amphibious invasion, succeed, and then maintain an occupation. Of a an angry hostile island. In a world where you can lob $200 drones from any beach or cave at everyone’s billion dollar ships and also at every industrial site on the mainland coast. The US is learning a hard lesson about that math. Also, the Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Filipino, Eu, and US (if they still exist) governments would be funneling support. Again as Iran demonstrates you don’t need to send soldiers, necessarily, logistics and intel support alone are huge.
I think the exact opposite is happening. China is afraid the window is closing, not opening, as massive military might seems less directly effective than 10 years ago. And I think this informs the latest talking points of conquest being inevitable, which tends to be argued based on the idea of racial alignment among “Chinese” people combined with general American stupidity. Points that seem compelling to a western audience (America is actually a stupid actor, and many white westerners implicitly think all Asian people are the same, “collectivists,” etc). But of course you could make that same argument for why American conquest of Canada is inevitable.
masamunecyrus@reddit
Only 3% of Taiwanese consider themselves to be Chinese, and that's been the case essentially since the nation became a democracy in the late 1990s.
zlex@reddit
I agree, Taiwan is fucked. The US can barely tolerate the pain of European gas prices. Europe can’t even defend Europe from Russia. China will make a move, it’s inevitable.
Calandrind@reddit
Trump’s criminal violence brings world wide peace…
keepthepace@reddit
For a very long time, the rest of the world was reluctant to recognize "red China" as the official government and accepted the Kuomintang as the official ruler of a temporary occupied mainland. The CCP and Kuomintang both considered each other as illegitimate. The Kuomintang did not leave that stance when the rest of world started to recognize the obvious, which is that the CCP does control mainland China. At the time a stance of the shape "we do recognize CCP as the govt of mainland China and the Kuomintang as the govt of Taiwan" would have angered both sides for no diplomatic gains.
When Taiwan changed stance, it was too late and the CCP managed (somehow skillfully I must say) to lock in the position that they were the only recognized government of "China" leaving each side decide unofficially if it includes Taiwan or not, but legally, they have a strong case to argue that never at the UN or in international treaties was it recognized that Taiwan is not part of China.
Quite frankly the West has collectively been very coward about that issue. And in a world where we turn a blind eye to the blatant violations of international standards by the US in Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, where we let Israel send troops wherever they want and where we are quite frankly bland in face of Russian's blatant annexation of Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, it will be easy for China to argue that what it does is well below the threshold of acceptable in 2026 politics.
M1chaelSc4rn@reddit
Bro why is everyone slopping china 😭 there’s no way taiwanese people WANT a mainland takeover
Pixi_Dust_408@reddit
I don’t think they want China to take over but I don’t think they want a war either.
Ok_Art6263@reddit
Because this sub are basically just r/worldnews but filled with people from the opposite political spectrum.
Capable-Yam4557@reddit
Taiwanese don't want to be ruled by CCP, but if they have to choose, they still prefer a peaceful reunification than a bloody war never seen before since WW2.
Various news and documentary interviewing common Taiwanese reveals that they just want to conflict to be done quickly, whatever it is. They're done and tired with the long fear of an invasion.
BunNGunLee@reddit
I swear I think this sub’s positions have gotten way more tankie lately. I came to it because World News was too one-sided, and now they’ve basically flipped.
Or maybe just explicitly anti-American and therefore any faction besides the US is automatically given favorable posts.
I don’t necessarily doubt why, the US right now is in the middle of a fustercluck. But this stuff is absurd.