‘Non-survivable’: heatwaves are already breaching human limits, with worse to come, study finds
Posted by Portalrules123@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 83 comments
MoroseMagician@reddit
Wet bulb situations are going to be horrific soon enough. Feels like things are definitely escalating quickly at this point.
TanneriteTed@reddit
The first mass casualty wet bulb event is gonna blow people's minds.
i-hear-banjos@reddit
I was in Kuwait for a year in 2003 (Army), in late August the wind came off the Arabian Sea and took the 120F dry temps to a wet bulb of 130. We shut the base down and restricted outdoor movement to no more than 15 minutes. Our massive AC units kept our tents and trailers cool enough somehow. But I can’t imagine surviving anything much hotter.
curiousgardener@reddit
Was this the same event that killed roughly 70k across Europe by the time it was done? I am glad you made it through safely.
Link for those who want to learn more. The book The Heat Will Kill You First by Jeff Goodell has a phenomenal chapter on this specific incident as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heatwave?wprov=sfla1
i-hear-banjos@reddit
Unsure, considering how far away the Middle East is from the broad part of Europe.
120F isn’t uncommon in Kuwait, but the wet bulb was considering it’s a desert (I was stationed on the coast.) Our Kuwaiti host officer, who lived through the Iraqi invasion and had been in Kuwait his entire life aside from trips said the high humidity was rare in his experience. Typically it’s mostly humid in the cooler “rainy season” in November - January.
curiousgardener@reddit
I'm from the prairies in Canada, and I cannot even fathom what it is like to have 120F as a regular temp. Then having to factor in humidity? My goodness.
I appreciate you taking the time to answer. It sounds like you've had an interesting career.
VanillaHuel@reddit
I was in Kuwait and Iraq a year after you. While the degree of heat was higher than what I had encountered, there was little humidity. When the wind blew, it felt like when you open the oven to check on your pie: hot dry air.
i-hear-banjos@reddit
That was true most of the time. So dry that you never seem to sweat, but you would have large salt rings around your armpits. We took a hummer out to the desert (Camp New York, I think?) to pick up a pallet of ammo, it was cooler to keep the windows up rather than let that hot wind slice through our faces. Add dust and sand for a lovely abrasive effect - ouch!😓
AHRA1225@reddit
100 bucks says it happens in the Middle East and government tries to spin it as gods will and totally not global warming
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
Will happen first in the Middle East, but it's going to be another dimension of horror when it happens in Uttar Pradesh (pop. 257M) and there's a seven-figure body count.
Europe thought last decade's immigration crisis was bad? Wait 'till they get a hundred thousand a month.
thehourglasses@reddit
I think India/Pakistan/Bangladesh wet bulb deaths will be the mental shock that people need to finally wake up to what’s happening. Whether or not it actually changes behavior will be anyone’s guess. ‘Someone else’s problem’ does Herculean levels of lifting for the status quo.
mrblahblahblah@reddit
those are brown people " over there" it won't matter until it happens to you ( or them specifically)
have it happen in Alabama and now we're talking, then tell them " don't worry, temps gonna rise for 20 years or so" and they probably still won't care
I mean, I'm not a cynic but this is America we're talking about
pagerussell@reddit
Yea, this is correct. Unfortunately, the conservative mind cannot compute empathy, so it has to happen to them personally or it didn't happen at all.
The problem is that much of the south in the US has sufficient air conditioning that it won't be a mass casualty event.
Now, say, pair it with a massive power outage due to the under regulated and under invested Texas power grid failing, and we might actually get some people to understand. Or at least we might get a sudden shift in demographics that favors people who understand.
UnlikelyReplacement0@reddit
That was the inciting incident for the book " The ministry of the future"
judithishere@reddit
The Ministry For The Future?
big_papa_geek@reddit
It’s a near future sci-if book by Kim Stanley Robinson about how humanity could actually address, or at least mitigate, climate change. The instigating event/opening chapter is a wet-bulb event in India that kills over 20 million people and leads to the UN creating the Ministry for the Future to start taking concrete actions.
Good book on some ways, definitely hand-wavey in others. I did appreciate how it didn’t flinch from the fact that climate change cannot be mitigated under capitalism, and that it would require violence to be achieved.
ohyeahwell@reddit
I also appreciated how it envisioned eco-terrorism: sabotaging planes to prevent mass flights, kidnapping the entire town etc.
SurgeFlamingo@reddit
Imagine power goes out in Phoenix this summer for a few days ….
ZenApe@reddit
If by "wake up" you mean "take the gloves off for fully fortifying their borders and leaving the others to die," I agree.
Unless we start seeing preemptive nukes. Guess that's possible.
cA05GfJ2K6@reddit
It's going to be West India
Sororita@reddit
there or India
ohyeahwell@reddit
The Ministry for the Future
takesthebiscuit@reddit
Nah it will go largely unnoticed if it happens in like India or China
We are too busy looking at memes
Chart-Ordinary@reddit
I think it’s past due for meteorologists to mention wet-bulb temperatures when discussing the weather forecast for the day. A lot of people don’t understand that you can even be healthy and athletic, and still be affected. When your body fails to be able to sweat and cool down, it does not matter what your age is, it will affect you and could be dangerous. Then again, that would mean that media is being responsible and telling the facts.
PurpleMuskogee@reddit
I feel like crying when I see the temperatures. Northern France had 29 degrees (Celcius) yesterday; London had 26. That's about 15 degrees higher than you'd expect early April. I feel politics and sadly many people around me don't seem to see how urgent this is and don't seem to care.
NoLobster7957@reddit
I'm in the southeast US and this has been a really weird spring already. It's jumping from 45 degrees to 80 day to day (7 celsius to 27 for reference).
Even more than that, though, this BOE thing that's being predicted for September is what I feel to be a tipping point past recovery. We aren't even close to as worried as we should be.
Once that goes down, anything else we do aside from build a giant ice maker is going to be like throwing a glass of water onto a house fire. The coral doesn't stand a chance and a lot of terrestrial and aquatic life is going to die off before we do, leaving the ecosystem in a tangled mess. Once food production drops off, we're going to be seeing potable water as a precious resource. The coast of Texas is already running out.
I feel like crying too. It's like we're strapped to the front of a train and the wealthy are at the helm hell bound to accelerate.
mimaikin-san@reddit
even if millions would strike & protest and even if every country stopped their pollution today, we’d still be fucked
we are truly living in a global insane asylum
adamsoutofideas@reddit
Or they actively avoid caring. I had to have some discussions about if we're planting this year or not and what we're planting. I showed them the projections from the ECMWF models and said whatever we choose, it should be drought resistant and as heat tolerant as possible. That kicked off a whole thing about how neurotic I am about this stuff, and as long as I was the subject instead of the scientific projection, they could ignore how clear it is that this will be another hot and dry year.
We fight for our ignorance and false hope, even to the point of sabotaging ourselves financially. "Looking forward" needs to be positive for the boomers, anyway. They have this whole "this too shall pass" thing, which is true about anything other than situations we engineer that only have an upward trajectory.
Im certain that's where the lack of concern comes from. Everything else has been cyclical in everyone's life. Nothing has only ever gotten worse, and neither should it because it's life on a planet that's always supported life and the seasons. They don't understand that what makes all this so important is that changing the climate never improves; there's no swing backwards, not in our lifetime or the next 10k years.
That's what makes this problem unique and worth our absolute focus: everything only ever gets worse until we are carbon negative.
It's a foreign concept to people who believe they're wise. They want to hand down the simple truths that their aging parents did like "things will work out, in the end" which were true when they were young, especially if they'd worked on fixing this.
None of the folksy cheery crap we've been using to calm down has any truth anymore.
03263@reddit
The most frustrating thing is you can remind them every day between now and next winter that it's going to be a hot and dry year and they will still rebuke you for thinking you're some kind of fortune teller, it was a coincidence, next year will be better, etc.
PurpleMuskogee@reddit
My family lives in France where it's already boiling in April, but I live in Ireland and temperatures are still normal... for now. People chat about their Seeing orders in the office and how much they love ChatGPT, and how a few degrees more wouldn't hurt! They only fear climate collapse because it might affect when they go on their holiday to Malaga or Lanzarote.
2xtc@reddit
It feels as though in a few short years we've gone from "how do we solve this" to "how do we manage this" to "how can we deal with this" to "how can we hope to mitigate this" to "how can we minimise this to reduce panic and force people to look the other way"
gishli@reddit
Yes. How many has stopped travelling and started living small. Like no shopping, no new electronics or fashion, no car, not a house buu a family of 4 in a 30-40m2 studio, local prosuce only, no AI or streaming services or social media etc unnecessary use of internet (=electricity, water)..? Maybe 1 in 10 million, if that many
03263@reddit
A lot more are doing what they reasonably can given all the conditions society puts on things. The fact that we need money to survive, there is no self sufficient community that doesn't at least owe taxes to someone... that's maybe one of the biggest roadblocks to fully sustainable living.
We need like religious tax exemption for ecovillages. That could at least set up the framework for fully sustainable communities.
NoLobster7957@reddit
Don't Look Up was a documentary
adamsoutofideas@reddit
I wonder if the melting glaciers will alter the earth's orbit around the sun at all? I know it changes the center of mass, so you'd think our orbit could shift a teeny tiny bit and put us on the path of collision with space stuff that normally goes past us.
03263@reddit
Nah even just statistically speaking there's an equal amount of stuff that would hit us here as... over there points at sky
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Alter the orbit around the sun? No. Not in the least. The most it could do is slightly alter the axial tilt. And just a slight wobble at that.
And that would happen through bulging. https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/glacial-isostatic-adjustment
NoLobster7957@reddit
That might as we'll happen
Electrical-Effect-62@reddit
I don't actually know the answer but I'm thinking the mass of the earth and everything inside it is significantly more than the ice on the crust. Like, by a lot
03263@reddit
The pace of economic growth and energy usage (both being very strongly correlated) has increased dramatically and continues to accelerate. It feels like things are getting ugly quickly because they are.
Granted, there is also increasing awareness and acceptance of the problems this causes, so we do hear more about it including more alarmism, but nobody is pushing the brakes yet.
s0cks_nz@reddit
A decade ago on reddit when there was such huge heat anomalies there would be a heap of posts about how unusually hot it was. These days it's just sort of the norm that it rarely gets mentioned.
bobby_table5@reddit
The next step —as anticipated in the Ministry for the Future— is: how do we handle terrorism motivated by the survivors of those wet-bulb catastrophes, and powered by cheap murder drones?
2xtc@reddit
Thanks for the reminder - I really need to read this ASAP. In previous threads I've been accused of regurgitating/stealing ideas from it, but I haven't actually read it yet so will be really interesting to see Kim Stanley Robinson's take on how we could look to deal with it, and various unpredictable/unforeseen outcomes like you described
codekat@reddit
I think we're already at the last step, though
2xtc@reddit
That's why it was where I stopped, to reflect our current reality.
Unfortunately from here on I think there's going to be a growing ideological split between 4 rough groups, and the messaging from different groups/counties will start to fracture, which will make globalised coordinated efforts just harder (unavoidable for macro management of something like this):
One attempting to mitigate the worst of the climate disaster (accept it, try to change)
One group to scared to face reality, but would eventually accept the science and reality (reject/minimise it, accept change once consequences already felt - too late)
Another group will be those who continue to ignore the warning signs and effects, and who don't think it's worth trying to improve the situation (broadly denialists, fatalists and ostriches)
And the final group will be those who accept that things are changing rapidly, don't see any issues with other people being affected as long as they get theirs, and/or those who accept and lean in to the chaos and embrace it (disaster capitalists, accelerationists)
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
We're already at "How do we survive this?", and the solution involves redefining "we" to less than 0.01% of our species and limiting "survive" to less than 75 years.
J-A-S-08@reddit
Same here in the Pacific NW of the US. We were like 80°F (27°C) for a few days. Everyone was going on about how "perfect" it was. 20-25°F warmer than normal and so so dry. Over half the state of Oregon is in drought now with almost no snow pack to speak of.
Ignorance truly is bliss.
GalaxyPatio@reddit
It was 88 in my area and that was whipping my ass. I could barely get up the stairs to my house. By now I fully anticipate that at some point I'll get caught up in a heatwave and get very tired and just die.
ChameleonPsychonaut@reddit
Of all the various ways one could die in ecological collapse, this one almost seems downright pleasant.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Having almost died twice from heat exhaustion*, it's pleasant ONLY in comparison.
*I was on the verge for heat stroke. Too close as it was.
GalaxyPatio@reddit
It's what I'm hoping for if it has to happen. The heat has already nearly taken me out on 4 different occasions.
NoLobster7957@reddit
I was in Tacoma during that big solar eclipse back in 2017 and I remember folks saying it was the hottest summer on record (it was like 70 degrees and low humidity at the time and I'm drom Texas so this was crazy to me, lol). I hope you guys are hanging in there up yonder, WA people are the dopest
pasatroj@reddit
Don't worry. The collapse of the Gulf Stream will fix most of Europe High Temp problems. /s but kind of true.
nohopeforhomosapiens@reddit
If you do not have one, get a window air conditioner for a small room. You don't need to use it except on hottest days. Turn it on during heat waves and keep the door closed to give you and family relief. I grew up in the Sonoran desert without AC, it reached above 120F every summer which was also the most humid time of year from Monsoon. Had to freeze my clothes, but sometimes the electricity would go out too at hottest time of year. Many people, elderly especially, would die. Put in an AC, don't use it until you need to.
s0cks_nz@reddit
Then everyone turns on the AC and the grid trips. Your advice is fine, just that AC isn't a solution in the long term to our woes.
Confident_Dark_1324@reddit
I mean, are you mostly vegan?
PurpleMuskogee@reddit
For 23 years!
Confident_Dark_1324@reddit
Inspirational! 8 years here 🫶♥️
bobby_table5@reddit
Yes
One_Laugh_Guy@reddit
Cries in equator. Were burning here already.
1erRPIMA-fiesta@reddit
We have June temperatures in early April here in France.
I wonder what June will be like. Could be intense rains, could be Sahara heat dome, could be both in the same month
Successful-Try-8506@reddit
In July and August you will have Sahara temperatures.
BadgerKomodo@reddit
And the Sahara itself will be about 70 degrees Celsius.
Successful-Try-8506@reddit
The first chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson's "The Ministry for the Future" coming to life.
unoriginal_user24@reddit
That chapter is utter horror.
bobby_table5@reddit
That chapter was striking to not have to explain the key unwritten spring of the book: Some of the people who have survived that will flip to blunt utilitarianism, and consider that killing thousands in targeted climate terrorism is the threat that will help enable negotiations. You never see anyone in the book put on FPS glasses and hunt the CEO of a fossil fuel company with a one-way drone, but that is what is happening. That’s the next step.
You want a fun update to that story?
Hundreds of war-hardened, drone-wielding Ukrainians are currently in Gulf countries, where a lot of the infrastructure has been destroyed, notably water desalination. Summer is coming. They already have had to rewire their brain to instinctively think that some “bipeds” (they refuse to call them people) Russians, aka Orks, deserve to be killed without mercy or delay. They are training hundreds of local people to do the same. They have learned how to make thousands of drones of all sizes and shapes using 3D-printers and kitchen utensils, dispersed in inconspicuous locations.
Oil executives from all countries have been telling them for four years now that they should accept the sacrifice of their brothers in arm, wives and kids because of how critical getting Russian oil was to the world, even if that delayed the war. And now, they work directly for some of those oil executives, and as soon as a really bad heat-wave hits, they’ll witness first hand who gets a room in an air-conned room and who gets to stay outside.
ohyeahwell@reddit
!remind me 1 year
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TrickyProfit1369@reddit
I only hope that unaccountable civilians wont get targeted by ecoterrorists. Other truly accountable groups I dont care for.
bobby_table5@reddit
I’m not sure if that’s reassuring, but they seem to be really good at open-source intelligence and facial recognition software.
NiceSupermarket7724@reddit
Everyone should read the first chapter of Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson.
It might save your life.
FearMyCock@reddit
Bold of you to assume i want to be saved
booksgamesandstuff@reddit
Someone on another forum said “I’ll be ok, I have a/c” The cluelessness can be amazing. Other people responded by asking what if there’s power outages, but get no response. I have an auto immune condition, and I need a/c for anything above 78-80° so I know what it’s going to be like for myself. I have a below grade family room that’s a few degrees cooler in summer, but I know I’ll probably melt down in the years to come. 🥵😳
adamsoutofideas@reddit
Think about marine heatwaves. Heatwaves in air are bad but it's got a low enough heat capacity you can usually find a hole to crawl into that's cool enough.
Water temps are inescapable to many species. You cook the top meter of any body of water and you kill off the most productive part of the ecosystem.
raerae704@reddit
Rearranging deck chairs
Portalrules123@reddit (OP)
SS: Related to climate collapse as researchers have used new information about heat, humidity, and people’s vulnerability to heat as they get older to determine that 6 extreme heatwaves over the last 20 years have already reached levels that could prove fatal (especially to people over 75, whose ability to sweat is often reduced) to those outside who can’t find shelter or at minimum shade. One of the researchers said they were pretty shocked and scared by these results, after all if we have already breached ‘non-survivable’ limits with the warming already present just imagine what future heat waves after the upcoming El Niño will be like. Another important thing to note is that temperature and humidity combinations that were previously considered “safe” or at least non-deadly may actually be non-survivable, as our ability to regulate body temperature in extreme heat seems to be slightly less powerful than we long assumed. Combine accelerating global warming, extreme heat, and a growing elderly population as the demographic curve changes, and you have a recipe for disaster especially if “wet bulb” conditions ensue. Expect heat deaths to exponentially grow in the coming years.
Myth_of_Progress@reddit
It's always a great sign when the researchers state something like this:
brickout@reddit
And that projection assumes our technology will be functioning as normal. Long power outages will cause these events to be absolutely devastating.
Grinagh@reddit
Ministry for the Future
guyseeking@reddit
Don't worry, humans are way too resilient to be affected by something as trivial as the laws of physics and the physiological limits of mammalian survivability
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Portalrules123:
SS: Related to climate collapse as researchers have used new information about heat, humidity, and people’s vulnerability to heat as they get older to determine that 6 extreme heatwaves over the last 20 years have already reached levels that could prove fatal (especially to people over 75, whose ability to sweat is often reduced) to those outside who can’t find shelter or at minimum shade. One of the researchers said they were pretty shocked and scared by these results, after all if we have already breached ‘non-survivable’ limits with the warming already present just imagine what future heat waves after the upcoming El Niño will be like. Another important thing to note is that temperature and humidity combinations that were previously considered “safe” or at least non-deadly may actually be non-survivable, as our ability to regulate body temperature in extreme heat seems to be slightly less powerful than we long assumed. Combine accelerating global warming, extreme heat, and a growing elderly population as the demographic curve changes, and you have a recipe for disaster especially if “wet bulb” conditions ensue. Expect heat deaths to exponentially grow in the coming years.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1sgsxz3/nonsurvivable_heatwaves_are_already_breaching/of7gj8f/
Me-Shell94@reddit
This environmental crisis will just laugh off all of our little human problems, our wars, our cultural differences. This will be the crisis that doesn’t take any of us into account.
purpilia25@reddit
Really makes you think of your own mortality and the limits we can bear. I am in my 30s, and I am already exhausted. It does not seem like we are going to face this crisis bravely hand in hand with one another…. It is going to be a long hard existence before a miserable death.